This article studies the effects of the introduction of artificial intelligence into teams in a laboratory experiment. We randomly assign automated co-workers into “laboratory firms” who are playing a team-based game on the Nintendo Switch console. We demonstrate that even in a task where AI outperforms humans, automation decreases overall team performance and increases coordination failures. These effects are especially large in the short-term and in low- and medium-skilled teams. Moreover, automation reduces team trust and individual effort provision. Our results support the implication that improving collaborative human-machine teams is key to the positive transformation that AI may bring to organizations.
{"title":"Super Mario Meets AI: Experimental Effects of Automation and Skills on Team Performance and Coordination","authors":"Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, B. Kogut, P. Perkowski","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01328","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article studies the effects of the introduction of artificial intelligence into teams in a laboratory experiment. We randomly assign automated co-workers into “laboratory firms” who are playing a team-based game on the Nintendo Switch console. We demonstrate that even in a task where AI outperforms humans, automation decreases overall team performance and increases coordination failures. These effects are especially large in the short-term and in low- and medium-skilled teams. Moreover, automation reduces team trust and individual effort provision. Our results support the implication that improving collaborative human-machine teams is key to the positive transformation that AI may bring to organizations.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"64436459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Should insurance prices vary with age? I consider competitive markets for lemons where a signal (e.g., age) partitions consumers (e.g., young and old). I study the continuum of policies from zero price-discrimination (zero- PD, equal prices) to full-PD (no restrictions). Restricting PD can increases welfare if high-cost markets exhibit greater adverse selection, or when the high-cost market “unravels.” I characterize optimal PD, and show how it is affected by changes in cost. In a calibration, optimal PD increases welfare by about $30/person-year. I extend the model to arbitrary signal structures, behavioral consumers, a monopolized industry, and multi-product firms.
{"title":"Price Discrimination in Selection Markets","authors":"Andre Veiga","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01330","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01330","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Should insurance prices vary with age? I consider competitive markets for lemons where a signal (e.g., age) partitions consumers (e.g., young and old). I study the continuum of policies from zero price-discrimination (zero- PD, equal prices) to full-PD (no restrictions). Restricting PD can increases welfare if high-cost markets exhibit greater adverse selection, or when the high-cost market “unravels.” I characterize optimal PD, and show how it is affected by changes in cost. In a calibration, optimal PD increases welfare by about $30/person-year. I extend the model to arbitrary signal structures, behavioral consumers, a monopolized industry, and multi-product firms.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48754435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We take advantage of recent advances in genomics to revisit a classic question in economics: how do parents respond to children's endowments and to sibling differences in endowments? We use an index based on DNA, which is fixed at conception and assigned randomly across siblings, as a proxy for educational endowments. We find that parents of nontwins display inequality aversion: given the absolute endowment level of one child, they invest less in him/her if his/her sibling has a lower genetic predisposition to education. In contrast, we find no evidence that parents of dizygotic twins react to endowment differences between children.
{"title":"Sibling Differences in Genetic Propensity for Education: How Do Parents React?","authors":"Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anastasia Terskaya","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01326","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01326","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We take advantage of recent advances in genomics to revisit a classic question in economics: how do parents respond to children's endowments and to sibling differences in endowments? We use an index based on DNA, which is fixed at conception and assigned randomly across siblings, as a proxy for educational endowments. We find that parents of nontwins display inequality aversion: given the absolute endowment level of one child, they invest less in him/her if his/her sibling has a lower genetic predisposition to education. In contrast, we find no evidence that parents of dizygotic twins react to endowment differences between children.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43761653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, while the opposite is true for royalties, particularly for misbehavior related to public spending.
{"title":"Natural Resource Rents, Local Taxes, and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia","authors":"L. Mart́ınez","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01324","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, while the opposite is true for royalties, particularly for misbehavior related to public spending.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41402713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lena Liebich, Lukas Nöh, Felix Rutkowski, Milena Schwarz
Abstract We study the potential role of the ECB in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy by decarbonizing the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). We demonstrate that the carbon intensity of CSPP purchases is determined by three main factors: First, by the CSPP-eligibility criteria, as these tend to exclude bonds from low-emission sectors. Second, by the underlying structure of the bond market, as this tends to be skewed towards carbon-intensive sectors. Third, among the eligible bonds, the ECB tends to select those from relatively emission-intensive sectors. To decarbonize the CSPP, the ECB can theoretically act along these three lines: (i) adjust the CSPP-eligibility criteria to expand the range of eligible low-carbon assets, (ii), revise the principle of market neutrality to tilt the CSPP portfolio towards low-carbon companies, or, (iii), purchase so far neglected low-carbon bonds within the current eligibility and market neutrality framework. As all approaches have either very limited effects or are associated with significant theoretical and practical concerns, we conclude that their contribution to the success of active green monetary policy is not guaranteed, while at the same time risks arise for a monetary policy that targets price stability.
{"title":"Unconventionally Green: Monetary Policy between Engagement and Conflicting Goals","authors":"Lena Liebich, Lukas Nöh, Felix Rutkowski, Milena Schwarz","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We study the potential role of the ECB in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy by decarbonizing the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). We demonstrate that the carbon intensity of CSPP purchases is determined by three main factors: First, by the CSPP-eligibility criteria, as these tend to exclude bonds from low-emission sectors. Second, by the underlying structure of the bond market, as this tends to be skewed towards carbon-intensive sectors. Third, among the eligible bonds, the ECB tends to select those from relatively emission-intensive sectors. To decarbonize the CSPP, the ECB can theoretically act along these three lines: (i) adjust the CSPP-eligibility criteria to expand the range of eligible low-carbon assets, (ii), revise the principle of market neutrality to tilt the CSPP portfolio towards low-carbon companies, or, (iii), purchase so far neglected low-carbon bonds within the current eligibility and market neutrality framework. As all approaches have either very limited effects or are associated with significant theoretical and practical concerns, we conclude that their contribution to the success of active green monetary policy is not guaranteed, while at the same time risks arise for a monetary policy that targets price stability.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72488974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We raise some critical points against a naïve interpretation of “green finance” products and strategies. These critical insights are the background against which we take a closer look at instruments and policies that might allow green finance to become more impactful. In particular, we focus on the role of a taxonomy and investor activism. We also describe the interaction of government policies with green finance practice – an aspect, which has been mostly neglected in policy debates but needs to be taken into account. Finally, the special case of green government bonds is discussed.
{"title":"A Primer on Green Finance: From Wishful Thinking to Marginal Impact","authors":"J. Krahnen, Jörg Rocholl, M. Thum","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We raise some critical points against a naïve interpretation of “green finance” products and strategies. These critical insights are the background against which we take a closer look at instruments and policies that might allow green finance to become more impactful. In particular, we focus on the role of a taxonomy and investor activism. We also describe the interaction of government policies with green finance practice – an aspect, which has been mostly neglected in policy debates but needs to be taken into account. Finally, the special case of green government bonds is discussed.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79480145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The transition to a sustainable economy currently involves a fundamental transformation of markets and market actors. This paper makes the case for investor empowerment as the main tool towards achieving greater sustainability in capital markets. This trust in institutional investors is grounded in various recent developments both on the supply side and the demand side of financial markets, and also in the increasing tendency of institutional investors to engage in common ownership. The need to build coalitions among different types of asset managers or institutional investors, and to convince fellow investors of any given initiative, can then act as an in-built filter helping to overcome the pursuit of idiosyncratic motives and supporting only those campaigns that are seconded by a majority of investors. In particular, institutionalized investor platforms have emerged over recent years as a force for investor empowerment, serving to coordinate investor campaigns and to share the costs of engagement. ESG engagement has the potential to become a very powerful driver towards a more sustainability-oriented future. Any regulatory activity should then be limited to a facilitative and supportive role.
{"title":"Investor Empowerment for Sustainability","authors":"W. Ringe","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The transition to a sustainable economy currently involves a fundamental transformation of markets and market actors. This paper makes the case for investor empowerment as the main tool towards achieving greater sustainability in capital markets. This trust in institutional investors is grounded in various recent developments both on the supply side and the demand side of financial markets, and also in the increasing tendency of institutional investors to engage in common ownership. The need to build coalitions among different types of asset managers or institutional investors, and to convince fellow investors of any given initiative, can then act as an in-built filter helping to overcome the pursuit of idiosyncratic motives and supporting only those campaigns that are seconded by a majority of investors. In particular, institutionalized investor platforms have emerged over recent years as a force for investor empowerment, serving to coordinate investor campaigns and to share the costs of engagement. ESG engagement has the potential to become a very powerful driver towards a more sustainability-oriented future. Any regulatory activity should then be limited to a facilitative and supportive role.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75953407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-26DOI: 10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50
A. Aletdinova, A. Koritskiy, A. N. Shadrintseva
The relevance of the study is explained by the link between economicgrowth and investment in human capital.The purpose of the study is a comparative analysis of the dynamicsof the return of physical and human capital in the European andAsian regions of Russia.Materials and methods. In the article, the authors use the extendedCobb-Douglas production function and conduct a regression spatialanalysis based on data of the official Russian statistics.Results.Thereareestimatesoftherelationshipbetweentheincomeofthepopulationofregionswiththenumberofemployed,withthevolumeoffixedassetsofregionsandhumancapital;thewage
{"title":"Comparative Assessment of the Human Capital Impact on the Population Income in the European and Asian Regions of Russia","authors":"A. Aletdinova, A. Koritskiy, A. N. Shadrintseva","doi":"10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p><jats:italic>The relevance of the study is explained by the link between economic</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>growth and investment in human capital.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>The purpose of the study </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>is a comparative analysis of the dynamics</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of the return of physical and human capital in the European and</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>Asian regions of Russia.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>Materials and methods. </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>In the article, the authors use the extended</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>Cobb-Douglas production function and conduct a regression spatial</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>analysis based on data of the official Russian statistics.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>Results.</jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:bold><jats:italic> </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>There</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>are</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>estimates</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>relationship</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>between</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>income</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>population</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>regions</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>with</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>number</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>employed,</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>with</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>volume</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>fixed</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>assets</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>regions</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>and</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>human</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>capital;</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>wage</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:ital","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74784668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-22DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-13-20
O. S. Koshevoy
.Assessing the situation in the labor market of the region, and ultimately forecasting the level of employment and unemployment, is a complex multidimensional mathematical problem that does not have a reliable and proven solution to date. Research in the direction of creating evaluation methods and forecasting the situation on the labor market is an actual task. The subject of the work is an assessment of the situation on the labor market of the Volga Federal District, through the analysis and modeling of the coefficient of tension in the labor market. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology that allows making a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District. The information base of the study was the results of a sample survey of the labor force conducted by state statistics bodies in accordance with the classifier of objects of administrative-territorial division (OKATO – Russian Classification on Objects of Administrative Division). To date, the length of the time series is four time periods (2018–2021) of the year. As methods of analysis and modeling, methods of descriptive statistics were used, as well as mathematical modeling of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market and the rating index of the socio-economic situation of the Volga Federal District. It is shown that the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market as a whole for all subjects of the Russian Federation is extremely heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to model processes in the labor market. At the same time, the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market of the regions of the Volga Federal District is quite homogeneous, which makes it possible to carry out simulations using such an integral index as the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District. In the process of modeling in the environment of the SPSS computer program, a nonlinear regression model of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market (dependent variable) and the place in the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District (explanatory variable) was formed. The model allows you to make a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District.
{"title":"Assessment of the Coefficient of Tension in the Labor Market. Regional Aspect","authors":"O. S. Koshevoy","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-13-20","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-13-20","url":null,"abstract":".Assessing the situation in the labor market of the region, and ultimately forecasting the level of employment and unemployment, is a complex multidimensional mathematical problem that does not have a reliable and proven solution to date. Research in the direction of creating evaluation methods and forecasting the situation on the labor market is an actual task. The subject of the work is an assessment of the situation on the labor market of the Volga Federal District, through the analysis and modeling of the coefficient of tension in the labor market. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology that allows making a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District. The information base of the study was the results of a sample survey of the labor force conducted by state statistics bodies in accordance with the classifier of objects of administrative-territorial division (OKATO – Russian Classification on Objects of Administrative Division). To date, the length of the time series is four time periods (2018–2021) of the year. As methods of analysis and modeling, methods of descriptive statistics were used, as well as mathematical modeling of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market and the rating index of the socio-economic situation of the Volga Federal District. It is shown that the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market as a whole for all subjects of the Russian Federation is extremely heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to model processes in the labor market. At the same time, the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market of the regions of the Volga Federal District is quite homogeneous, which makes it possible to carry out simulations using such an integral index as the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District. In the process of modeling in the environment of the SPSS computer program, a nonlinear regression model of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market (dependent variable) and the place in the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District (explanatory variable) was formed. The model allows you to make a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90383887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-37-52
S. Vinokurov, A. Medved
The background information that forms the expectations of economic entities is a significant factor that determines their behavior.The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the relationship of inflation, perception and expectation of inflation by households with the parameters of the information (news’) background on the example of the Russian Federation.The materials for processing as a Russian information background were news’ reports issued by leading Russian TV channels and duplicated on the relevant sites, as well as Internet search (the number of news and search queries, the length of the headlines of the text versions of news, the frequency of mentioning certain topics in them, the tonality of texts), GoogleTrends data on internetrequests. The tonality of the texts was evaluated using automatic analyzers EurikaEngine and Repustate. Data from the reports of the Public Opinion Fund for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation posted on its website are also used; these reports contain monthly data on actual inflation (consumer price index) for 12 months and the results of respondents’ surveys on the perception of inflation, inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, assessments of economic and personal prospects, changes in behavior (starting a job search, making large purchases, etc.) and a wide range of other characteristics of public sentiment related to inflation. To process the collected data, correlation and regression analysis was used, as well as specific methods: Granger causality, principal component methods and lasso regression. As a result of the analysis, statistically significant correlations are found, which may be associated with individual reactions to the topics covered, expressed in changes in mood and behavior.Thus, inflation is negatively correlated with the number of political news on the “Russia” channel and with the length of headlines of text versions of political news of the “Pervy” channel, and positively correlated with web-search queries on the topic “Inflation”. Including these variables in a regression that estimates inflation based on lagged values significantly improves the quality of the regression, although their impact is small in terms of absolute values. We analyze how these relations change after the shift in the exchange rate regime and the introduction of inflation targeting. We find that in the period preceding to the shift, web-search demonstrated statistical significance in the equations we evaluate, and political news did not, while in the subsequent period, the opposite was true. We observe a connection between the parameters under consideration with certain aspects of individual behavior, such as the search for a better-paid job, or doing business. Finally, we find imperfections in the information activity of the Central Bank: an increase in the frequency of its mention in the news reduces people’s confidence that the inflation target can be achieved.In conclusion, the authors come
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