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The Model of Socio-Economic Stratification of Society Based on An Agent Approach, Taking Into Account Rank Exchange 基于代理方法的考虑等级交换的社会经济分层模型
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-4-23
V. Kapitanov, O. S. Osipova, A. U. Maksimova
The purpose of the study is to demonstrate the possibility of adequate mathematical modeling of property inequality in a stratified society based on an agent approach, taking into account the unequal (rank) exchange between agents with different socio-economic status. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to solve the following tasks:1. To develop minimum criteria for the adequacy of mathematical models of socio-economic inequality.2. To substantiate the advantages of mathematical models based on an agent approach using rank exchange.3. To present the author’s version of the mathematical model of the goods’ movement in society based on an agent approach, taking into account rank exchange.4. To check the author’s mathematical model for compliance with the minimum qualitative criteria of adequacy and to create a quantitatively coinciding with the real distribution of the country’s population of the Russian Federation by income.5. Determine the limitations of the developed mathematical model by the authors.Materials and methods. The paper used statistical data from Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service of the Russian Federation, the World Bank, the US Bureau of the Census, the Edelman Trust Barometer, as well as data published by domestic and foreign researchers of inequality. These data were compared with the results of inequality calculations obtained using the mathematical model of the goods’ movement in society based on an agent approach, taking into account rank (nonequivalent) exchange.Results. The minimum criteria that any adequate model of stratification of society must meet are defined: 1. reveals a lognormal distribution of the population by income with a heavy tail; 2. reflects in long-term historical retrospect the trend of inequality growth; 3. demonstrates a short-term reduction of inequality during periods of socio-economic crises.The proposed model meets these requirements, it demonstrates not only qualitative, but also quantitative adequacy – reproduces by calculation the curve of the actual distribution of Russian society by income.Common concepts of inequality, in particular, the theory of superstars or skill-based technological change do not allow achieving such a result. The limitations of the created mathematical model are shown:– the impossibility of creating an adequate Lorentz curve with insufficient computing power;– inability to describe changes in cross-country inequality, since countries are not subjects of rank exchange, although interstate agreements certainly have an impact on the exchange between economic subjects of social interaction;– inability to describe situations of absolute poverty, i.e. long-term decline in income, although in the real economy such situations are sometimes observed;– the endless growth of inequality over time, whereas in reality economic processes of inequality growth are always opposed by social processes of counteraction to this growth.Conclusion. The mechanism of spontaneous emergence and gro
本研究的目的是为了证明,考虑到具有不同社会经济地位的代理人之间的不平等(等级)交换,基于代理人方法的分层社会中财产不平等的充分数学建模的可能性。为实现这一目标,必须解决以下任务:为社会经济不平等的数学模型的充分性制定最低标准。为了证明基于秩交换的智能体方法的数学模型的优势。3 .在考虑等级交换的情况下,提出基于代理人方法的社会中商品运动的数学模型。4 .检查发件人的数学模型是否符合适当的最低质量标准,并在数量上建立一个符合俄罗斯联邦按收入划分的国家人口实际分布的数学模型。确定作者开发的数学模型的局限性。材料和方法。这篇论文使用了俄罗斯国家统计局、俄罗斯联邦税务局、世界银行、美国人口普查局、爱德曼信托晴雨表的统计数据,以及国内外研究不平等问题的研究人员发表的数据。这些数据与使用基于代理方法的商品在社会中运动的数学模型(考虑到等级(非等价物)交换)获得的不平等计算结果进行了比较。定义了任何适当的社会分层模型必须满足的最低标准:揭示了一个对数正态分布的人口收入与沉重的尾巴;2. 在长期的历史回顾中反映了不平等增长的趋势;3.在社会经济危机期间,证明了不平等的短期减少。所提出的模型满足了这些要求,它不仅在定性上,而且在定量上都是充分的——通过计算再现了俄罗斯社会实际收入分配的曲线。常见的不平等概念,特别是超级明星理论或基于技能的技术变革,不允许实现这样的结果。所创建的数学模型的局限性表明:-不可能在计算能力不足的情况下创建适当的洛伦兹曲线;-无法描述跨国不平等的变化,因为国家不是等级交换的主体,尽管州际协议肯定会对社会互动的经济主体之间的交换产生影响;-无法描述绝对贫困的情况,即收入的长期下降。虽然实体经济中的这种情况下有时观察;——不平等的无休止的增长随着时间的推移,而在现实的经济不平等增长的过程总是反对这个growth.Conclusion反动的社会过程。本文论证了收入(财产)不平等作为市场关系的必然结果而自发产生和增长的机制。考虑到等级交换,基于主体的方法可以识别出关键时刻,在此之后,特殊的经济和社会政治后果将具有不可逆转的特征,并且还可以帮助研究不同层次的经济主体的个人行为对整个经济演变的影响,从而影响社会政治系统。获得的结果将为战略规划是有用的,当开发目标指标地区的社会经济发展和国家作为一个整体,和改进的方法计算公务员的关键性能指标
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引用次数: 0
To the Question of the Relevance of Statistics of Information and Communication Technologies in the Context of the Digital Transformation of the Economy 在经济数字化转型的背景下,信息和通信技术统计的相关性问题
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-53-63
M. Karyshev
Purpose of the study. The process of qualitative transformation of the economy under the influence of information and communication technologies is called digital transformation. The change of the economic paradigm in the technocratic context raises the question of whether the existing statistical methodology can still be applied objectively and effectively to the study of the subject area in the new conditions. The purpose of the article is to assess the relevance of statistics in the field of information and communication technologies as an information source for analyzing the digital transformation of the economy, taking into account its industry specifics.Materials and methods. To clarify the depth of this problem, there seems to be no better way than to carry out an analysis using statistical data collected and published by the Federal State Statistics Service. As statistical tools, descriptive statistics indexes are used to describe particular indicators, one of the methods of multivariate statistical analysis for obtaining a classification according to a number of characteristics (cluster hierarchical analysis) and, finally, a method for calculating an integral index that can rank the units of the analyzed population formed according to the type of economic activities (18 units), simultaneously for all of its constituent indicators.Results. The system of statistical indexes formed during the analysis included four thematic groups of indexes: a) IT infrastructure and access to it; b) the level and direction of use of IT services; c) availability and qualifications of IT specialists; d) information security. The calculation of descriptive statistics showed that all groups (with the exception of indexes of the presence and qualifications of IT specialists) are homogeneous; comparison of the values of the arithmetic mean and the median does not make it possible to declare any significant asymmetry in their distribution. Cluster hierarchical analysis was carried out by the Ward method using the Minkowski metric, which made it possible to obtain two approximately equal in size industry clusters and one mono-cluster, consisting of a type of activity in the field of information and communication. The resulting grouping, however, could not definite answer the question of the priority of some industries over others in the digital transformation of their constituent organizations. To solve this problem, an integral index was developed, which included the most significant indexes of each of the groups (selected by experts). As a result of calculating the values of this integral index based on the arithmetic weighted average, a ranked series was obtained, transformed into a typological grouping, the leader of which is activity in the field of information and communication, the outsider is agriculture. An analysis of this grouping made it possible to draw a very curious conclusion: in general, in the analyzed set of types of economic activity, there is
研究目的:在信息和通信技术的影响下,经济发生质的转变的过程被称为数字化转型。技术官僚背景下经济范式的变化提出了一个问题,即在新的条件下,现有的统计方法是否仍然可以客观和有效地应用于主题领域的研究。本文的目的是评估信息和通信技术领域的统计数据作为分析经济数字化转型的信息源的相关性,同时考虑到其行业特殊性。材料和方法。要弄清这个问题的严重性,似乎没有比利用联邦国家统计局收集和公布的统计数据进行分析更好的办法了。描述性统计指标是用来描述特定指标的统计工具,是多元统计分析的一种方法,根据一些特征获得分类(聚类层次分析),最后是一种计算积分指数的方法,它可以根据经济活动类型(18个单位)对所分析的人口单位进行排序,同时对其所有组成指标进行排序。在分析过程中形成的统计指标体系包括四个主题指标组:a) IT基础设施及其可及性;b)使用资讯科技服务的水平和方向;c) IT专家的可用性和资格;D)信息安全。描述性统计的计算表明,所有组(除了IT专家的存在和资格指数)都是同质的;比较算术平均值和中位数的值并不能说明它们的分布有任何显著的不对称性。利用Minkowski度量,采用Ward方法进行聚类层次分析,从而可以得到两个规模大致相等的产业集群和一个由信息通信领域的一种活动组成的单集群。然而,由此产生的分组不能明确回答某些行业在其组成组织的数字化转型中比其他行业优先的问题。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个积分指数,它包含了每组中最显著的指标(由专家选择)。通过对该综合指标的算术加权平均值进行计算,得到一个排序序列,并将其转化为一个类型分组,其领先者为信息通信领域的活动,局外人为农业。对这种分组的分析可以得出一个非常奇怪的结论:总的来说,在所分析的经济活动类型集合中,存在一个明显的趋势或依赖性——越接近物质生产领域的行业,其数字化转型综合指数的内在价值就越低。进行的分析令人信服地显示了信息和通信技术统计作为分析部门背景下经济数字化转型过程的信息源的重大可能性。同时,所分析的主题领域的动态性决定了修订统计指数制度的先决条件,以便更新该制度并提高信息和通信技术领域调查结果的出版效率
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引用次数: 1
The Two-Margin Problem in Insurance Markets. 保险市场的双利润问题。
IF 7.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-01 Epub Date: 2021-07-09 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01070
Michael Geruso, Timothy J Layton, Grace McCormack, Mark Shepard

Insurance markets often feature consumer sorting along both an extensive margin (whether to buy) and an intensive margin (which plan to buy). We present a new graphical theoretical framework that extends a workhorse model to incorporate both selection margins simultaneously. A key insight from our framework is that policies aimed at addressing one margin of selection often involve an economically meaningful trade-off on the other margin in terms of prices, enrollment, and welfare. Using data from Massachusetts, we illustrate these trade-offs in an empirical sufficient statistics approach that is tightly linked to the graphical framework we develop.

保险市场的特点通常是消费者在广泛边际(是否购买)和密集边际(购买哪种计划)上进行排序。我们提出了一个新的图形理论框架,该框架扩展了一个主力模型,将两种选择边际同时纳入其中。从我们的框架中得到的一个重要启示是,旨在解决一个选择边际问题的政策往往涉及到在价格、入学率和福利方面对另一个边际进行有经济意义的权衡。我们利用马萨诸塞州的数据,通过与我们开发的图形框架紧密相连的经验充分统计方法来说明这些权衡。
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引用次数: 0
An Economic Model for Creating a Network Enterprise Architecture 创建网络企业架构的经济模型
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-53-62
A. A. Bryzgalov, Yury F. Telnov
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引用次数: 0
Using the Sectoral Structure of the Economy to Select Competing Regions (on the Example of the Amur Region) 利用经济部门结构选择竞争区域(以黑龙江地区为例)
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-40-52
A. Vasilieva
One of the stages of the statistical study of the competitiveness of a region is the selection of competing regions.Purpose of the study. The purpose of the article is to form a statistical set of regions-competitors based on the sectoral structure of the economy.Materials and methods. As research methods in this article, the method of the main array, factorial, cluster methods, statistical methods are chosen. The statistical data of Rosstat were used for the study. To perform the calculations, the GVA was considered in the structure of Russian National Classifier of Types of Economic Activity2 for 2019. Results. With the help of factor analysis, 19 types of economic activity of the regions were grouped according to similarities and differences. As a result, six factors were formed, each of which collected dependent types of economic activity. The use of cluster analysis made it possible to form groups of regions with a similar sectoral structure of the economy. The study involved 85 regions of the Russian Federation. Cluster analysis made it possible to solve the methodological problem of determining the boundaries of GVA intervals for certain types of economic activity in the selection of competing regions.The paper shows that for the Amur Region, nine regions of the Russian Federation should be considered as competing regions. The regions of this cluster are united by a high share of gross value added by the types of activity “Transportation and storage”, “Public administration”, “Trade”. At the same time, competitors are regions from different federal districts: 70% of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, 20% of the Southern Federal District, 10% of the Siberian Federal District. The main results of the study are the following: 1) a high variation of the regions of the Russian Federation in 2019 was revealed by the type of economic activity “Mining” and “Manufacturing”; 2) a grouping of 19 types of economic activity of the regions was carried out using the factor analysis method; 3) a cluster analysis of the regions of the Russian Federation was carried out according to the sectoral structure of gross value added for 2019; five clusters were received. Conclusion. This paper shows that the selection of competing regions must be carried out using the sectoral structure of the region’s economy. Consideration of the region’ specialization is an important requirement of the selection methodology. The advantage of the author’s methodology is its universality, objectivity and reflection of the specialization of the region. As a direction for further research, one should consider determining the specialization of regions using localization coefficients and, on its basis, the formation of a statistical set of competing regions. The presented sample of regions is necessary for assessing their competitiveness.
区域竞争力统计研究的一个阶段是竞争区域的选择。研究目的:本文的目的是在经济部门结构的基础上形成一个地区竞争者的统计集。材料和方法。本文的研究方法选择了主数组法、析因法、聚类法、统计方法等。本研究采用Rosstat的统计资料。为了进行计算,GVA被考虑在2019年俄罗斯国家经济活动类型分类器2的结构中。结果。在因子分析的基础上,对各区域的19种经济活动进行了相似性和差异性分组。结果,形成了六个因素,每个因素都收集了依赖的经济活动类型。利用聚类分析可以形成具有类似经济部门结构的区域组。这项研究涉及俄罗斯联邦的85个地区。聚类分析可以解决在选择竞争区域时确定某些类型的经济活动的GVA区间边界的方法学问题。本文认为,对于阿穆尔河地区,俄罗斯联邦的九个地区应被视为竞争地区。这一集群的区域由“运输和储存”、“公共行政”、“贸易”等活动类型所增加的总增加值的高份额联系在一起。与此同时,竞争对手是来自不同联邦区的地区:70%的远东联邦区,20%的南部联邦区,10%的西伯利亚联邦区。研究的主要结果如下:1)2019年俄罗斯联邦各地区的经济活动类型“采矿”和“制造业”差异很大;2)采用因子分析法对19种区域经济活动进行了分组;3)根据2019年俄罗斯联邦地区总增加值的行业结构进行了聚类分析;共收到五组。结论。本文认为,竞争区域的选择必须利用区域经济的产业结构来进行。考虑区域的专业化是选择方法的一个重要要求。笔者的研究方法的优势在于其普遍性、客观性和对区域专业化的反映。作为进一步研究的方向,应该考虑使用局部化系数来确定区域的专业化,并在此基础上形成竞争区域的统计集。所提供的地区样本对于评估其竞争力是必要的。
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引用次数: 0
Development of Departmental Statistical Accounting of the Federal Penitentiary Service in the Conditions of Digital Transformation 数字化转型条件下联邦监狱服务部门统计会计的发展
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-28-39
O. Soboleva
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引用次数: 0
Assessment of the State of the Meat Market and the Reproductive Process in Terms of Ensuring Food Security 从确保粮食安全的角度评估肉类市场状况和生殖过程
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-21-27
V. Vrublevskaya, A. Mamaeva
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引用次数: 1
Game Simulation of Choosing the Optimal Strategy for Providing a Tourist Product, Taking Into Account the Preferences of Consumers in the Tourist Market 考虑旅游市场消费者偏好的旅游产品最优提供策略选择博弈模拟
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-63-71
D. Vlasov, P. Karasev, A. Sinchukov
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引用次数: 1
A Promising Methodological Approach to Identifying Areas with the Greatest Potential for the Development of the City Cycling Infrastructure 一种确定最有潜力发展城市自行车基础设施的地区的有前途的方法
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-10-20
O. Grishina, A. Grishin, I. Stroganov
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引用次数: 1
Statistics and Society: Features of Interaction and Problems of Mutual Understanding 统计与社会:互动的特征与相互理解的问题
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2022-6-4-9
М. V. Karmanov
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引用次数: 0
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Review of Economics and Statistics
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