This paper presents an alternative perspective to a longstanding empirical puzzle: that most entrepreneurs persevere despite persistently low earnings. Because entrepreneurial earnings are notoriously difficult to measure, I approach the question from an expenditure angle. I look at how switching into self-employment corresponds to changes in reported earnings versus expenditure. Using 45 years of longitudinal data, I find that individuals report earning 27.7% less in self-employment, while spending 3.8% more. This household expenditure premium accrues with entrepreneurial experience and is not offset by lower savings or longer work hours. The results hold in highly educated and incorporated business owner subsamples.
{"title":"The Unobserved Returns to Entrepreneurship","authors":"Prashant Bharadwaj, Steve Bond, Tiffany Chou, Wes Cohen, Julie Cullen, Silke Forbes, Youjin Hahn","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01437","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper presents an alternative perspective to a longstanding empirical puzzle: that most entrepreneurs persevere despite persistently low earnings. Because entrepreneurial earnings are notoriously difficult to measure, I approach the question from an expenditure angle. I look at how switching into self-employment corresponds to changes in reported earnings versus expenditure. Using 45 years of longitudinal data, I find that individuals report earning 27.7% less in self-employment, while spending 3.8% more. This household expenditure premium accrues with entrepreneurial experience and is not offset by lower savings or longer work hours. The results hold in highly educated and incorporated business owner subsamples.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140233854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Seminal theories of the firm posit that firm ownership is allocated to minimize contractual inefficiencies. Yet, it remains unclear how much the optimal ownership choice affects firm performance in practice. This paper provides a first quantification of the gains from optimal ownership within multinational firms, by exploiting a major liberalization of China's policy restrictions on foreign ownership. The liberalization allowed previously restricted firms to become fully foreign owned. We find that these reoptimized ownership choices raise firm output by 40% and productivity by 7.5% on average. An extended property-rights theory of the multinational firm rationalizes these effects and their heterogeneity.
{"title":"Optimal Ownership and Firm Performance: An Analysis of China's FDI Liberalization","authors":"Peter Eppinger, Hong Ma","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01431","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Seminal theories of the firm posit that firm ownership is allocated to minimize contractual inefficiencies. Yet, it remains unclear how much the optimal ownership choice affects firm performance in practice. This paper provides a first quantification of the gains from optimal ownership within multinational firms, by exploiting a major liberalization of China's policy restrictions on foreign ownership. The liberalization allowed previously restricted firms to become fully foreign owned. We find that these reoptimized ownership choices raise firm output by 40% and productivity by 7.5% on average. An extended property-rights theory of the multinational firm rationalizes these effects and their heterogeneity.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a non-cooperative bargaining model with incomplete information linking dowry payments, domestic violence, resource allocation between a husband and a wife, and separation. Our model generates several predictions, which we test empirically using amendments to the Indian anti-dowry law as a natural experiment. We document a decline in women's bargaining power and separations, and a surge in domestic violence following the amendments. These unintended effects are attenuated when social stigma against separation is low and, in some circumstances, when gains from marriage are high. Whenever possible, parents increase investment in their daughters' human capital to compensate for lower dowries.
{"title":"'Til Dowry Do Us Part: Bargaining and Violence in Indian Families","authors":"Rossella Calvi, Ajinkya Keskar","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01399","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a non-cooperative bargaining model with incomplete information linking dowry payments, domestic violence, resource allocation between a husband and a wife, and separation. Our model generates several predictions, which we test empirically using amendments to the Indian anti-dowry law as a natural experiment. We document a decline in women's bargaining power and separations, and a surge in domestic violence following the amendments. These unintended effects are attenuated when social stigma against separation is low and, in some circumstances, when gains from marriage are high. Whenever possible, parents increase investment in their daughters' human capital to compensate for lower dowries.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139214013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper identifies productivity gains from trade by studying the manipulation behavior of firms in response to regulatory policies on international trade in China. Bunching estimates show that participation in international trade increases firm productivity. The productivity gains increase over time, indicating dynamic learning from trading. Further exploration shows no effects on R&D investment, product rationalization and markup. Young firms and nonstate-owned firms (non-SOEs) gain more from participating in trade. Workers share productivity gains through increased wages but not from increased employment.
{"title":"Productivity Gains from Trade: Bunching Estimates from Trading Rights in China","authors":"Yunong Li, Yi Lu, Jianguo Wang","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01392","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01392","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies productivity gains from trade by studying the manipulation behavior of firms in response to regulatory policies on international trade in China. Bunching estimates show that participation in international trade increases firm productivity. The productivity gains increase over time, indicating dynamic learning from trading. Further exploration shows no effects on R&D investment, product rationalization and markup. Young firms and nonstate-owned firms (non-SOEs) gain more from participating in trade. Workers share productivity gains through increased wages but not from increased employment.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139210976","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper estimates the returns to human capital accumulation during the first era of mega-firms in the United States by linking employees at General Electric—a canonical enterprise associated with the “visible hand” of managerial hierarchies—to the 1940 census. I find large returns to higher education through seniority in the hierarchy, span of control, earnings, and selection into management training, using the proximity of land-grant colleges and historical universities to birth states for identification. The findings highlight the human capital determinants of the managerial revolution at a prominent firm, driven by earlier public investments in the US education system.
{"title":"Human Capital and the Managerial Revolution in the United States: Evidence from General Electric","authors":"Tom Nicholas","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01400","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01400","url":null,"abstract":"This paper estimates the returns to human capital accumulation during the first era of mega-firms in the United States by linking employees at General Electric—a canonical enterprise associated with the “visible hand” of managerial hierarchies—to the 1940 census. I find large returns to higher education through seniority in the hierarchy, span of control, earnings, and selection into management training, using the proximity of land-grant colleges and historical universities to birth states for identification. The findings highlight the human capital determinants of the managerial revolution at a prominent firm, driven by earlier public investments in the US education system.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139210714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-12-21
K. V. Kuznetsov
In the context of changing the demographic structure of the population (population aging) in order to determine the demand for goods and services and predict key socio-economic indexes, consumption age indexes are of practical interest for research. A feature of collecting information on the level of consumption is the conduct of surveys for the household as a whole, and not for a specific member of the household. At the same time, it should be noted that throughout the life cycle of a person, the level and structure of consumption differ. Methods for assessing the level of consumption in households of different generations are of greatest interest on the part of researchers. Current trends in developing and developed countries are characterized by a move away from multi-generational living. Thus, estimates of the level of consumption by children in households with parents are of practical interest.The purpose of the study. At present, there are no unequivocal recommendations on how to estimate the calculation of children’s consumption in households. At the same time, the available methods have been subjected to various criticisms from economists. It should be noted that most of the research on this topic was carried out at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account possible cross-country features of consumption financing: the availability and development of medicine and education. If social services are available and provided at the expense of the state in a country, then the level of consumption by children will be lower. If the household finances the social sphere, the level of consumption by children in households will be higher. Thus, it is of practical interest to assess the level of consumption by children in Russian households.Materials and methods. Based on data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2020 conducted by Rosstat, households consisting of two adults and two adults with one child are selected. With the help of classical methods of statistical analysis, the construction of age profiles of consumption for each group of households is carried out. Based on the share of expenditures on food in the household and the scale effect of their consumption, the paper constructs age estimates for the redistribution of the level of consumption depending on the age of children. In addition, the sample size allows us to test the hypothesis about the age of birth of the child and the level of consumption.Results. The study made it possible to assess the differences in the level of consumption by children depending on the age at which a child was born. The average age of a child’s birth determines his/her further level of consumption throughout adulthood. Consumption is lowest among children who are born when parents are less than 26 years old. The obtained redistribution coefficients for ages under 15 are higher than in the estimates proposed by R. Lee, E. Mason, and Deaton, that confirms the possib
{"title":"Assessing the Level of Consumption by Children in Households","authors":"K. V. Kuznetsov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-12-21","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-12-21","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of changing the demographic structure of the population (population aging) in order to determine the demand for goods and services and predict key socio-economic indexes, consumption age indexes are of practical interest for research. A feature of collecting information on the level of consumption is the conduct of surveys for the household as a whole, and not for a specific member of the household. At the same time, it should be noted that throughout the life cycle of a person, the level and structure of consumption differ. Methods for assessing the level of consumption in households of different generations are of greatest interest on the part of researchers. Current trends in developing and developed countries are characterized by a move away from multi-generational living. Thus, estimates of the level of consumption by children in households with parents are of practical interest.The purpose of the study. At present, there are no unequivocal recommendations on how to estimate the calculation of children’s consumption in households. At the same time, the available methods have been subjected to various criticisms from economists. It should be noted that most of the research on this topic was carried out at the end of the 20th century. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account possible cross-country features of consumption financing: the availability and development of medicine and education. If social services are available and provided at the expense of the state in a country, then the level of consumption by children will be lower. If the household finances the social sphere, the level of consumption by children in households will be higher. Thus, it is of practical interest to assess the level of consumption by children in Russian households.Materials and methods. Based on data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2020 conducted by Rosstat, households consisting of two adults and two adults with one child are selected. With the help of classical methods of statistical analysis, the construction of age profiles of consumption for each group of households is carried out. Based on the share of expenditures on food in the household and the scale effect of their consumption, the paper constructs age estimates for the redistribution of the level of consumption depending on the age of children. In addition, the sample size allows us to test the hypothesis about the age of birth of the child and the level of consumption.Results. The study made it possible to assess the differences in the level of consumption by children depending on the age at which a child was born. The average age of a child’s birth determines his/her further level of consumption throughout adulthood. Consumption is lowest among children who are born when parents are less than 26 years old. The obtained redistribution coefficients for ages under 15 are higher than in the estimates proposed by R. Lee, E. Mason, and Deaton, that confirms the possib","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88277109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-4-11
A. A. Surkov
Purpose of the study. In this paper, we consider the problem of negativity of weight coefficients when combining forecasts. Combining forecasts as a method has long ago proved itself in practice as a good way to improve forecast accuracy. However, in the literature little attention is paid to the issue of negative weights during aggregation, although the cases of obtaining such weights in practice are quite common. The reasons why this may happen are not considered or analyzed. Often, when obtaining weights less than zero, such weights are reset to zero, thus excluding the information contained in the particular forecasting method from the combination, which may reduce the accuracy of the combined forecast. In this regard, it is important to understand why when combining forecasts, negative weight can be obtained and determine options for how to avoid such situations in combining without losing accuracy.Materials and methods. It is proposed to consider various approaches to eliminate excluded weights when combining forecasts, including truncation of weight coefficients or imposing restrictions on them, including the option of sequential combining of forecasts. Results. The result is a list of reasons why negative weights can be obtained when combining forecasts, what risks they have and how to avoid them.Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the negative weights themselves when combining forecasts can be triggers for identifying problems when combining. However, it is dangerous to retain them, as they can lead to uncertain prediction results and degrade the accuracy of the resulting combined forecast. The proposed methods of work allow you to bypass the negativity of the weights without a strong deterioration in forecasting.
{"title":"Are Negative Weights in Combining Forecasts So Bad?","authors":"A. A. Surkov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-4-11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-4-11","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. In this paper, we consider the problem of negativity of weight coefficients when combining forecasts. Combining forecasts as a method has long ago proved itself in practice as a good way to improve forecast accuracy. However, in the literature little attention is paid to the issue of negative weights during aggregation, although the cases of obtaining such weights in practice are quite common. The reasons why this may happen are not considered or analyzed. Often, when obtaining weights less than zero, such weights are reset to zero, thus excluding the information contained in the particular forecasting method from the combination, which may reduce the accuracy of the combined forecast. In this regard, it is important to understand why when combining forecasts, negative weight can be obtained and determine options for how to avoid such situations in combining without losing accuracy.Materials and methods. It is proposed to consider various approaches to eliminate excluded weights when combining forecasts, including truncation of weight coefficients or imposing restrictions on them, including the option of sequential combining of forecasts. Results. The result is a list of reasons why negative weights can be obtained when combining forecasts, what risks they have and how to avoid them.Conclusion. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the negative weights themselves when combining forecasts can be triggers for identifying problems when combining. However, it is dangerous to retain them, as they can lead to uncertain prediction results and degrade the accuracy of the resulting combined forecast. The proposed methods of work allow you to bypass the negativity of the weights without a strong deterioration in forecasting.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82162314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-04DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-32-43
V. V. Vrublevskaya
Throughout the existence of mankind, the issues of human nutrition have been of daily relevance. With the development of statehood, their formulations have changed and since the beginning of the 21st century, tasks have been set to provide the population with food of their own production, to develop the reproductive process in agriculture, to achieve food self-sufficiency and independence.The purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to determine the type of reproduction process in the current situation on the market of crop production in order to assess the level of food self-sufficiency of the population of the Irkutsk region with these products and to develop recommendations for their development.Materials and methods. Statistical methods were used in the paper: descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, dynamic series analysis, monographic and other research methods. The study uses normative, reference and statistical information. The empirical base of the study was made up of data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Irkutsk region, accounting reports of agricultural organizations, publications in open sources. The object of the study is the supply of crop production in the Irkutsk region on the market.Results. The author’s approach in the study of the reproductive process and the agro-food market of crop production in the Irkutsk region, allowed to comprehensively analyze and determine: the type of reproduction of crop production, namely grain as expanded, potatoes and vegetables as narrowed; the main grain producers are peasant farms, potatoes and vegetables are households of the population; the level of self-sufficiency of the region with crop production, namely the region is self-sufficient with grain and potatoes; the level of food dependence of the region on imports, namely, the region is dependent on the import of vegetables; to identify the factors that influenced the formation of these indexes (natural and climatic, investment, reduction of the rural population, the prevailing eating behavior of the population of the region, etc.).Conclusion. Taking into account the results obtained, economic instability, high dynamics of changes in the external environment, the directions of formation and development of reproduction and agrifood market of crop production in the Irkutsk region are proposed, namely, for the development of grain production, it is necessary to organize and develop production of highly efficient machinery and technologies for processing; the development of potato growing requires significant investments in agricultural organizations and peasant farms for the purchase of equipment for planting, hilling, harvesting, etc., the construction of potato storage facilities, etc.; increasing the level of self-sufficiency with vegetables in the Irkutsk region is possible through the application of the experience of neighboring regions, the joint work of the state and agricultura
{"title":"Analysis of Reproduction and Agri-Food Market of Crop Production in the Conditions of Food Independence of the Region","authors":"V. V. Vrublevskaya","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-32-43","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-32-43","url":null,"abstract":"Throughout the existence of mankind, the issues of human nutrition have been of daily relevance. With the development of statehood, their formulations have changed and since the beginning of the 21st century, tasks have been set to provide the population with food of their own production, to develop the reproductive process in agriculture, to achieve food self-sufficiency and independence.The purpose of the study. The purpose of the study is to determine the type of reproduction process in the current situation on the market of crop production in order to assess the level of food self-sufficiency of the population of the Irkutsk region with these products and to develop recommendations for their development.Materials and methods. Statistical methods were used in the paper: descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, dynamic series analysis, monographic and other research methods. The study uses normative, reference and statistical information. The empirical base of the study was made up of data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Irkutsk region, accounting reports of agricultural organizations, publications in open sources. The object of the study is the supply of crop production in the Irkutsk region on the market.Results. The author’s approach in the study of the reproductive process and the agro-food market of crop production in the Irkutsk region, allowed to comprehensively analyze and determine: the type of reproduction of crop production, namely grain as expanded, potatoes and vegetables as narrowed; the main grain producers are peasant farms, potatoes and vegetables are households of the population; the level of self-sufficiency of the region with crop production, namely the region is self-sufficient with grain and potatoes; the level of food dependence of the region on imports, namely, the region is dependent on the import of vegetables; to identify the factors that influenced the formation of these indexes (natural and climatic, investment, reduction of the rural population, the prevailing eating behavior of the population of the region, etc.).Conclusion. Taking into account the results obtained, economic instability, high dynamics of changes in the external environment, the directions of formation and development of reproduction and agrifood market of crop production in the Irkutsk region are proposed, namely, for the development of grain production, it is necessary to organize and develop production of highly efficient machinery and technologies for processing; the development of potato growing requires significant investments in agricultural organizations and peasant farms for the purchase of equipment for planting, hilling, harvesting, etc., the construction of potato storage facilities, etc.; increasing the level of self-sufficiency with vegetables in the Irkutsk region is possible through the application of the experience of neighboring regions, the joint work of the state and agricultura","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73848302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-04DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-44-54
A. Y. Proskuryakov
The purpose of the study is to highlight the key aspects necessary for the formation of a methodology for designing systems for managing trading operations over cryptocurrencies. The methodology of designing digital asset management systems defines a set of rules for using methods, models and algorithms required to build systems that solve the complex problem of managing trading operations over digital economy assets. For this purpose, the dynamics and trends of pricing of digital investment and financial assets are investigated to identify the peculiarities and specific patterns of cryptocurrency, taking into account the mathematical model of issuance in the conditions of a dynamic crypto-asset market, functioning continuously and forming cyclicality and wave structures.Materials and methods. The object of the study is the dynamics of value indicators of the market of digital financial assets and digital currencies. The subject of the study is methods, models and algorithms for automated monitoring and management of digital financial assets and cryptocurrencies. The methodological basis of the research is formed by blockchain technologies, modeling and mathematical statistics methods, artificial intelligence methods. The statistical information base of the research is formed on the basis of the history of Tradingview’s value quotations from international trading exchanges of digital currencies, as well as by Coinmarketcap and Coingecko cryptoasset market integrators. Problems of modeling processes in economic systems are considered, the problem of optimal control is defined. A critical analysis of the state in the tasks of economic modeling is carried out, taking into account the uncertainty caused by social and psychological reasons.Results. The proposed methodology offers a comprehensive solution to the problem of managing digital financial assets and other financial instruments based on blockchain technology. Digital currencies act as the management object of the proposed methodology, the initial information is a vector of parameters that determine the sensitivity of the system to the perturbing influences of the external environment and the requirements for the expected management results. In accordance with the scientific novelty of the research and methodology, a set of interrelated research stages is formed, consisting of an ordered cascade of methods, models and algorithms that perform preliminary analysis, processing and forecasting of financial time series of value indicators.Conclusion. New blockchain technologies and the emergence of Chat GPT (generative pre-trained transformer) pose new challenges to society, which hopes to utilize such solutions, including for economic tasks. With the help of prediction-free methods and artificial neural networks it is possible to design software systems, thanks to which it is possible to increase the efficiency of trading operations at optimal risks in automatic and automated mode of trade executi
{"title":"Aspects of Developing A Methodology for Managing Digital Financial Assets","authors":"A. Y. Proskuryakov","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-44-54","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-4-44-54","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to highlight the key aspects necessary for the formation of a methodology for designing systems for managing trading operations over cryptocurrencies. The methodology of designing digital asset management systems defines a set of rules for using methods, models and algorithms required to build systems that solve the complex problem of managing trading operations over digital economy assets. For this purpose, the dynamics and trends of pricing of digital investment and financial assets are investigated to identify the peculiarities and specific patterns of cryptocurrency, taking into account the mathematical model of issuance in the conditions of a dynamic crypto-asset market, functioning continuously and forming cyclicality and wave structures.Materials and methods. The object of the study is the dynamics of value indicators of the market of digital financial assets and digital currencies. The subject of the study is methods, models and algorithms for automated monitoring and management of digital financial assets and cryptocurrencies. The methodological basis of the research is formed by blockchain technologies, modeling and mathematical statistics methods, artificial intelligence methods. The statistical information base of the research is formed on the basis of the history of Tradingview’s value quotations from international trading exchanges of digital currencies, as well as by Coinmarketcap and Coingecko cryptoasset market integrators. Problems of modeling processes in economic systems are considered, the problem of optimal control is defined. A critical analysis of the state in the tasks of economic modeling is carried out, taking into account the uncertainty caused by social and psychological reasons.Results. The proposed methodology offers a comprehensive solution to the problem of managing digital financial assets and other financial instruments based on blockchain technology. Digital currencies act as the management object of the proposed methodology, the initial information is a vector of parameters that determine the sensitivity of the system to the perturbing influences of the external environment and the requirements for the expected management results. In accordance with the scientific novelty of the research and methodology, a set of interrelated research stages is formed, consisting of an ordered cascade of methods, models and algorithms that perform preliminary analysis, processing and forecasting of financial time series of value indicators.Conclusion. New blockchain technologies and the emergence of Chat GPT (generative pre-trained transformer) pose new challenges to society, which hopes to utilize such solutions, including for economic tasks. With the help of prediction-free methods and artificial neural networks it is possible to design software systems, thanks to which it is possible to increase the efficiency of trading operations at optimal risks in automatic and automated mode of trade executi","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82502206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Employment growth is one of the most crucial indicators for economic policy. Existing studies show that only a small fraction of firms experience high growth rates and create the most new jobs. Making use of recentered influence function regressions, this study examines the effects of process and product innovations on the employment growth distribution. The analysis is based on firm data from Eastern European countries. The effects of process innovation on job creation are ambiguous. An increase in firms with products and services that are new to the market shape the upper tail of the employment growth distribution. Product and service innovations thus cause skewness of the employment growth distribution and are a major determinant of job creation. This study therefore presents evidence on whether and how innovation activities affect employment growth and contributes to the lively debate about how to foster employment growth.
{"title":"Does Innovation Shape the Employment Growth Distribution? Evidence from East European Firms","authors":"Stefan Schneck, Sebastian Nielen, C. Dienes","doi":"10.1515/roe-2023-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2023-0034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Employment growth is one of the most crucial indicators for economic policy. Existing studies show that only a small fraction of firms experience high growth rates and create the most new jobs. Making use of recentered influence function regressions, this study examines the effects of process and product innovations on the employment growth distribution. The analysis is based on firm data from Eastern European countries. The effects of process innovation on job creation are ambiguous. An increase in firms with products and services that are new to the market shape the upper tail of the employment growth distribution. Product and service innovations thus cause skewness of the employment growth distribution and are a major determinant of job creation. This study therefore presents evidence on whether and how innovation activities affect employment growth and contributes to the lively debate about how to foster employment growth.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72938004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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