Samantha Horn, Julian C. Jamison, Dean S. Karlan, Jonathan Zinman
We experimentally evaluate group-based financial education, savings account access, or both for members of Ugandan youth groups. We measure both short- and long-run impacts with one- and five- year endline household surveys. Education, but not account access, increases measured financial knowledge and trust at one-year. At five-years, knowledge effects essentially disappear, and trust effects weaken. However, savings and income increase for each treatment at both endlines, which is noteworthy given the interventions' low cost and the long time horizon of our second endline. Exploring potential mechanisms, we find evidence consistent with multiple pathways to behavior change and outcome improvement.
{"title":"Five-Year Impacts of Group-Based Financial Education and Savings Promotion for Ugandan Youth","authors":"Samantha Horn, Julian C. Jamison, Dean S. Karlan, Jonathan Zinman","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01337","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We experimentally evaluate group-based financial education, savings account access, or both for members of Ugandan youth groups. We measure both short- and long-run impacts with one- and five- year endline household surveys. Education, but not account access, increases measured financial knowledge and trust at one-year. At five-years, knowledge effects essentially disappear, and trust effects weaken. However, savings and income increase for each treatment at both endlines, which is noteworthy given the interventions' low cost and the long time horizon of our second endline. Exploring potential mechanisms, we find evidence consistent with multiple pathways to behavior change and outcome improvement.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48771650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. N. Ferreira, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Giovanni Ricco
We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance trade-off intrinsic in the choice between direct and iterative methods. Bayesian Local Projections (BLP) regularise LP regressions via informative priors, and estimate impulse response functions that capture the properties of the data more accurately than iterative VARs. BLPs preserve the flexibility of LPs while retaining a degree of estimation uncertainty comparable to Bayesian VARs with standard macroeconomic priors. As regularised direct forecasts, BLPs are also a valuable alternative to BVARs for multivariate out-of-sample projections.
{"title":"Bayesian Local Projections","authors":"L. N. Ferreira, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Giovanni Ricco","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01334","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01334","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We propose a Bayesian approach to Local Projections that optimally addresses the empirical bias-variance trade-off intrinsic in the choice between direct and iterative methods. Bayesian Local Projections (BLP) regularise LP regressions via informative priors, and estimate impulse response functions that capture the properties of the data more accurately than iterative VARs. BLPs preserve the flexibility of LPs while retaining a degree of estimation uncertainty comparable to Bayesian VARs with standard macroeconomic priors. As regularised direct forecasts, BLPs are also a valuable alternative to BVARs for multivariate out-of-sample projections.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43506602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the impacts of technology training and buyer-supplier relationship on technology adoption and quality upgrading. We randomly varied subjects of each training group across farmer–exporter clusters—farmers, exporters, both, or none—and provided training on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). We find that training farmers enhances technology adoption and quality upgrading. Yet, the effects are much stronger when farmers and exporters are trained together. We document a plausible mechanism to explain this finding: joint training improves buyer-supplier relationship, which facilitates contract trade between farmers and exporters. We find no effect of GAP certification eligibility on technology adoption.
{"title":"Technology Training, Buyer-Supplier Relationship, and Quality Upgrading in an Agricultural Supply Chain","authors":"Sangyoon Park, Zhaoneng Yuan, Hongsong Zhang","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01341","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01341","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper examines the impacts of technology training and buyer-supplier relationship on technology adoption and quality upgrading. We randomly varied subjects of each training group across farmer–exporter clusters—farmers, exporters, both, or none—and provided training on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). We find that training farmers enhances technology adoption and quality upgrading. Yet, the effects are much stronger when farmers and exporters are trained together. We document a plausible mechanism to explain this finding: joint training improves buyer-supplier relationship, which facilitates contract trade between farmers and exporters. We find no effect of GAP certification eligibility on technology adoption.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44880451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes private anti-fraud enforcement under the False Claims Act, which compensates whistleblowers for litigating against healthcare providers who overbill the US government. I conduct several case studies of successful whistleblower lawsuits concerning Medicare fraud, pairing new legal data with large samples of Medicare claims. I estimate that deterrence from $1.9 billion in whistleblower settlements generated Medicare cost savings of nearly $19 billion, while imposing low costs on the government. These results suggest private enforcement is a cost-effective way to combat public expenditure fraud.
{"title":"Can Whistleblowers Root Out Public Expenditure Fraud? Evidence from Medicare","authors":"Jetson Leder-Luis","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01339","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper analyzes private anti-fraud enforcement under the False Claims Act, which compensates whistleblowers for litigating against healthcare providers who overbill the US government. I conduct several case studies of successful whistleblower lawsuits concerning Medicare fraud, pairing new legal data with large samples of Medicare claims. I estimate that deterrence from $1.9 billion in whistleblower settlements generated Medicare cost savings of nearly $19 billion, while imposing low costs on the government. These results suggest private enforcement is a cost-effective way to combat public expenditure fraud.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44867535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Export activity shapes workers' experience-wage profiles. Using employer-employee and customs data for Brazilian manufacturing, we document that workers' experience-wage profiles are steeper at exporters than at non-exporters and, among exporters, steeper at exporters shipping to high-income destinations. We develop and quantify a model featuring worker-firm wage bargaining, export-market entry by multi-worker firms, and human capital accumulation by workers to interpret the data. Human capital growth can explain one-half of the differences in wage profiles between exporters and non-exporters. We show that increased human capital per worker can account for one-half of the overall gains in real income from trade openness.
{"title":"Exporting, Wage Profiles, and Human Capital: Evidence from Brazil","authors":"Xiao-xiang Ma, M. Muendler, Alejandro Nakab","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_01346","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Export activity shapes workers' experience-wage profiles. Using employer-employee and customs data for Brazilian manufacturing, we document that workers' experience-wage profiles are steeper at exporters than at non-exporters and, among exporters, steeper at exporters shipping to high-income destinations. We develop and quantify a model featuring worker-firm wage bargaining, export-market entry by multi-worker firms, and human capital accumulation by workers to interpret the data. Human capital growth can explain one-half of the differences in wage profiles between exporters and non-exporters. We show that increased human capital per worker can account for one-half of the overall gains in real income from trade openness.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44991264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-02DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-21-40
N. Ayyubova
Purpose of the study. The article analyzes the impact of world oil prices (external and internal factors) on the country’s GDP, considers fluctuations in world oil prices, their impact on the national economy of Azerbaijan and the integrability of these macroeconomic indexes. Materials and methods. The study of the dynamics of the functioning of time series based on the initial data revealed their non-stationarity, which does not allow creating a “qualitative” predictive model. In order to achieve the goals of the study and “improve the quality” of the model being formed, which is used to calculate predictive estimates, appropriate econometric procedures were carried out and the integrability of time series was investigated. In particular, the method of vector error correction model VECM is used. The test is based on the use of cointegration equations between variables, where lag lengths and Granger causality definitions are solved within this model. When forming the VECM model, the hypotheses put forward in the work were tested using econometric tests. The responses of the impulse function to the independent variables of the model were studied by the method of graphical representation based on the values of the model and its residuals.Results. It has been determined that the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables can be considered stable, since after short-term disturbances from shock reactions, stability is restored. The applied method of decomposition of forecast error variances to determine the influence of exogenous variables on the endogenous variable showed that the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for GDP, Azeri_light, Brent and West is given by their own changes during the first trimester of the period under consideration.Conclusion. The results obtained can be useful for identifying real trends in Azerbaijan’s GDP and determining its interdependencies with other macroeconomic variables, for determining its interdependencies with variations in energy prices based on an analysis of the dynamics of the indexes under consideration, for developing recommendations and forming directions for the longterm development of GDP.
{"title":"Analysis of the Impact of Global Oil Prices On GDP (on the Example of the Azerbaijan Republic)","authors":"N. Ayyubova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-21-40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-21-40","url":null,"abstract":"Purpose of the study. The article analyzes the impact of world oil prices (external and internal factors) on the country’s GDP, considers fluctuations in world oil prices, their impact on the national economy of Azerbaijan and the integrability of these macroeconomic indexes. Materials and methods. The study of the dynamics of the functioning of time series based on the initial data revealed their non-stationarity, which does not allow creating a “qualitative” predictive model. In order to achieve the goals of the study and “improve the quality” of the model being formed, which is used to calculate predictive estimates, appropriate econometric procedures were carried out and the integrability of time series was investigated. In particular, the method of vector error correction model VECM is used. The test is based on the use of cointegration equations between variables, where lag lengths and Granger causality definitions are solved within this model. When forming the VECM model, the hypotheses put forward in the work were tested using econometric tests. The responses of the impulse function to the independent variables of the model were studied by the method of graphical representation based on the values of the model and its residuals.Results. It has been determined that the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables can be considered stable, since after short-term disturbances from shock reactions, stability is restored. The applied method of decomposition of forecast error variances to determine the influence of exogenous variables on the endogenous variable showed that the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for GDP, Azeri_light, Brent and West is given by their own changes during the first trimester of the period under consideration.Conclusion. The results obtained can be useful for identifying real trends in Azerbaijan’s GDP and determining its interdependencies with other macroeconomic variables, for determining its interdependencies with variations in energy prices based on an analysis of the dynamics of the indexes under consideration, for developing recommendations and forming directions for the longterm development of GDP.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73596874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-02DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-51-67
V. Salin, L. Arhangelskaya, O. Tretyakova
The purpose of the study. To characterize the level and dynamics of the country’s economic development, its sovereignty and, accordingly, the adoption of effective management decisions, quantitative information is needed on economic assets, in particular financial ones, their presentation in national accounts, monetary statistics and indexes of the external sector.The aim of the paper is to systematize theoretical and practical developments on the definition and presentation of data on financial assets in modern statistics of Russia’s foreign economic relations, to identify areas for improving methods for assessing and analysis of financial assets, a system of indexes characterizing their presence, structure and dynamics.Materials and methods. In the paper, the authors considered the definitions, specifics, classifications and categories of financial assets and liabilities, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison and special analytical procedures based on official statistics from Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and international statistical organizations.Results. The paper identifies the main directions for the statisticalstudy of financial assets, based on current international standards, taking into account national practice. Topical issues of theory and practice of observations and presentation of data on financial assets in foreign economic statistics, application of definitions and classifications of international standards to Russian official statistical activities are considered. The features of the data presentation on financial assets in macrostatistics, in the system of indexes of statistics of foreign economic relations, are formulated. The authors conducted a study of the structure and dynamics of indexes of Russia’s foreign economic statistics that characterize the state and movement of financial assets and liabilities representing them.Conclusion. Statistical analysis of foreign economic transactions with financial assets allow us to identify not only the main trends in the development of these processes, but also makes it possible to analyze the relationship between the subsectors of the Financial corporations’ sector, between this sector and other sectors, as well as a comprehensive change in the volume and composition of stocks and flows of financial assets as a result of the exchange between residents and non-residents.The authors comprehensively reviewed the methodological framework for constructing the financial account of the Balance of payments, International investment position, including in the context of financial instruments. The Balance of payments and International investment position, through their system of statistical indexes, reflect international economic relations and represent an important tool for the study of financial assets. The groupings of items of the financial account of the Balance of payme
{"title":"Presentation of Financial Assets in the Statistics of Foreign Economic Relations","authors":"V. Salin, L. Arhangelskaya, O. Tretyakova","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-51-67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-51-67","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study. To characterize the level and dynamics of the country’s economic development, its sovereignty and, accordingly, the adoption of effective management decisions, quantitative information is needed on economic assets, in particular financial ones, their presentation in national accounts, monetary statistics and indexes of the external sector.The aim of the paper is to systematize theoretical and practical developments on the definition and presentation of data on financial assets in modern statistics of Russia’s foreign economic relations, to identify areas for improving methods for assessing and analysis of financial assets, a system of indexes characterizing their presence, structure and dynamics.Materials and methods. In the paper, the authors considered the definitions, specifics, classifications and categories of financial assets and liabilities, applied structural and dynamic data analysis, as well as methods of theoretical research in the form of generalization, comparison and special analytical procedures based on official statistics from Rosstat, the Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance and international statistical organizations.Results. The paper identifies the main directions for the statisticalstudy of financial assets, based on current international standards, taking into account national practice. Topical issues of theory and practice of observations and presentation of data on financial assets in foreign economic statistics, application of definitions and classifications of international standards to Russian official statistical activities are considered. The features of the data presentation on financial assets in macrostatistics, in the system of indexes of statistics of foreign economic relations, are formulated. The authors conducted a study of the structure and dynamics of indexes of Russia’s foreign economic statistics that characterize the state and movement of financial assets and liabilities representing them.Conclusion. Statistical analysis of foreign economic transactions with financial assets allow us to identify not only the main trends in the development of these processes, but also makes it possible to analyze the relationship between the subsectors of the Financial corporations’ sector, between this sector and other sectors, as well as a comprehensive change in the volume and composition of stocks and flows of financial assets as a result of the exchange between residents and non-residents.The authors comprehensively reviewed the methodological framework for constructing the financial account of the Balance of payments, International investment position, including in the context of financial instruments. The Balance of payments and International investment position, through their system of statistical indexes, reflect international economic relations and represent an important tool for the study of financial assets. The groupings of items of the financial account of the Balance of payme","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85397740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-02DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-4-12
T. I. Gulyaeva, E. Takmakova, V. Savkin
The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.
{"title":"Socio-Economic Factors of Population Reproduction in Russia and in the Context of Federal Districts","authors":"T. I. Gulyaeva, E. Takmakova, V. Savkin","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-4-12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-4-12","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75383246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-02DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-68-79
L. Bakumenko, N. S. Vasileva
The purpose of the study is to analyze the potential of statistical modeling in predicting the prices of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency and its impact on the economy. In the course of the article, answers were received to such questions as: What is the impact of macroeconomic events on the dynamics of the Bitcoin price? How quickly does the cryptocurrency market stabilize after the falls? How effective is statistical modeling to solve the problem of predicting the price of Bitcoin? Which model shows the best results? What measures of regulation and control of the cryptocurrency market are necessary at the stage of its formation in the Russian Federation?Materials and methods. Historical data on average monthly Bitcoin closing prices and macroeconomic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were collected and analyzed. The paper uses statistical models, including ARIMA and LSTM, to predict future Bitcoin prices based on historical data. The accuracy of the models was calculated based on such indexes as the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean square error (MSE). Results. Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic events showed that during the crisis, the attractiveness of Bitcoin increased and investors used this asset as a new investment tool. During the analysis of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the cryptocurrency market, its reaction to geopolitical events was revealed according to the increased liquidity indexes in the market. In the process of modeling the dynamics of the average monthly Bitcoin price, the model with parameters (1, 1, 0) at MAE = 15.03% was recognized as the best ARIMA model. The LSTM neural network model on a similar data set showed a MAE error equal to 2.57%.Conclusion. The analysis shows that itcoin was the most attractive investment tool during the crisis, which led to a sharp increase in its price in 2021. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also affected its price, causing a significant decline in 2022. However, statistical modeling methods predict an increase in the price of Bitcoin in the first half of 2023, and governments may consider regulating or controlling its use to reduce risks associated with the cryptocurrency market. The recommended measures are the introduction of regulations, the introduction of transaction taxes, the development of national digital currencies, public education and the prevention of criminal activity.
{"title":"Digital Assets and the Global Economy: How the Use of Statistical Models Can Help Bitcoin Price Prediction","authors":"L. Bakumenko, N. S. Vasileva","doi":"10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-68-79","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-68-79","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of the study is to analyze the potential of statistical modeling in predicting the prices of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency and its impact on the economy. In the course of the article, answers were received to such questions as: What is the impact of macroeconomic events on the dynamics of the Bitcoin price? How quickly does the cryptocurrency market stabilize after the falls? How effective is statistical modeling to solve the problem of predicting the price of Bitcoin? Which model shows the best results? What measures of regulation and control of the cryptocurrency market are necessary at the stage of its formation in the Russian Federation?Materials and methods. Historical data on average monthly Bitcoin closing prices and macroeconomic events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were collected and analyzed. The paper uses statistical models, including ARIMA and LSTM, to predict future Bitcoin prices based on historical data. The accuracy of the models was calculated based on such indexes as the mean absolute error (MAE) and the mean square error (MSE). Results. Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic events showed that during the crisis, the attractiveness of Bitcoin increased and investors used this asset as a new investment tool. During the analysis of the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the cryptocurrency market, its reaction to geopolitical events was revealed according to the increased liquidity indexes in the market. In the process of modeling the dynamics of the average monthly Bitcoin price, the model with parameters (1, 1, 0) at MAE = 15.03% was recognized as the best ARIMA model. The LSTM neural network model on a similar data set showed a MAE error equal to 2.57%.Conclusion. The analysis shows that itcoin was the most attractive investment tool during the crisis, which led to a sharp increase in its price in 2021. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has also affected its price, causing a significant decline in 2022. However, statistical modeling methods predict an increase in the price of Bitcoin in the first half of 2023, and governments may consider regulating or controlling its use to reduce risks associated with the cryptocurrency market. The recommended measures are the introduction of regulations, the introduction of transaction taxes, the development of national digital currencies, public education and the prevention of criminal activity.","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84616907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-01Epub Date: 2023-05-09DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01069
Amanda E Kowalski
A headline result from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment is that emergency room (ER) utilization increased. A seemingly contradictory result from the Massachusetts health reform is that ER utilization decreased. I reconcile both results by identifying treatment effect heterogeneity within the Oregon experiment and extrapolating it to Massachusetts. Even though Oregon compliers increased their ER utilization, they were adversely selected relative to Oregon never takers, who would have decreased their ER utilization. Massachusetts expanded coverage from a higher level to healthier compliers. Therefore, Massachusetts compliers are comparable to a subset of Oregon never takers, which can reconcile the results.
{"title":"Reconciling Seemingly Contradictory Results from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment and the Massachusetts Health Reform.","authors":"Amanda E Kowalski","doi":"10.1162/rest_a_01069","DOIUrl":"10.1162/rest_a_01069","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A headline result from the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment is that emergency room (ER) utilization increased. A seemingly contradictory result from the Massachusetts health reform is that ER utilization decreased. I reconcile both results by identifying treatment effect heterogeneity within the Oregon experiment and extrapolating it to Massachusetts. Even though Oregon compliers increased their ER utilization, they were adversely selected relative to Oregon never takers, who would have decreased their ER utilization. Massachusetts expanded coverage from a higher level to healthier compliers. Therefore, Massachusetts compliers are comparable to a subset of Oregon never takers, which can reconcile the results.</p>","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11137874/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43654133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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