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Sibling Differences in Genetic Propensity for Education: How Do Parents React? 兄弟姐妹受教育基因倾向的差异:父母如何反应?
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01326
Anna Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anastasia Terskaya
We take advantage of recent advances in genomics to revisit a classic question in economics: how do parents respond to children's endowments and to sibling differences in endowments? We use an index based on DNA, which is fixed at conception and assigned randomly across siblings, as a proxy for educational endowments. We find that parents of nontwins display inequality aversion: given the absolute endowment level of one child, they invest less in him/her if his/her sibling has a lower genetic predisposition to education. In contrast, we find no evidence that parents of dizygotic twins react to endowment differences between children.
我们利用基因组学的最新进展,重新审视经济学中的一个经典问题:父母如何应对孩子的天赋和兄弟姐妹的天赋差异?我们使用了一个基于DNA的指数,该指数在受孕时是固定的,并在兄弟姐妹之间随机分配,作为教育捐赠的代表。我们发现,非父母表现出对不平等的厌恶:考虑到一个孩子的绝对禀赋水平,如果他/她的兄弟姐妹受教育的遗传倾向较低,他们对他/她的投资就会减少。相比之下,我们没有发现任何证据表明异卵双胞胎的父母对孩子之间的禀赋差异有反应。
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引用次数: 1
Natural Resource Rents, Local Taxes, and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia 自然资源租金、地方税和政府绩效:来自哥伦比亚的证据
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-12 DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01324
L. Mart́ınez
I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, while the opposite is true for royalties, particularly for misbehavior related to public spending.
我比较了地方税收和开采自然资源的特许权使用费对哥伦比亚市政当局治理的影响,利用了地籍更新和世界石油价格波动带来的看似外生的变化。与石油特许权使用费的同等规模增长相比,更高的税收对教育、卫生和水利领域的地方公共产品的影响更大,尽管特许权使用权使用费专门用于这些领域的支出。更高的税收也降低了对市市长进行纪律起诉的可能性,而特许权使用费则相反,尤其是与公共支出有关的不当行为。
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引用次数: 5
Unconventionally Green: Monetary Policy between Engagement and Conflicting Goals 非常规绿色:参与与目标冲突之间的货币政策
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1515/roe-2023-0024
Lena Liebich, Lukas Nöh, Felix Rutkowski, Milena Schwarz
Abstract We study the potential role of the ECB in supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy by decarbonizing the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). We demonstrate that the carbon intensity of CSPP purchases is determined by three main factors: First, by the CSPP-eligibility criteria, as these tend to exclude bonds from low-emission sectors. Second, by the underlying structure of the bond market, as this tends to be skewed towards carbon-intensive sectors. Third, among the eligible bonds, the ECB tends to select those from relatively emission-intensive sectors. To decarbonize the CSPP, the ECB can theoretically act along these three lines: (i) adjust the CSPP-eligibility criteria to expand the range of eligible low-carbon assets, (ii), revise the principle of market neutrality to tilt the CSPP portfolio towards low-carbon companies, or, (iii), purchase so far neglected low-carbon bonds within the current eligibility and market neutrality framework. As all approaches have either very limited effects or are associated with significant theoretical and practical concerns, we conclude that their contribution to the success of active green monetary policy is not guaranteed, while at the same time risks arise for a monetary policy that targets price stability.
摘要:我们研究了欧洲央行通过企业部门采购计划(CSPP)脱碳在支持向低碳经济转型方面的潜在作用。我们证明,CSPP购买的碳强度由三个主要因素决定:首先,由CSPP资格标准决定,因为这些标准倾向于排除低排放部门的债券。其次是债券市场的基本结构,因为债券市场往往向碳密集型行业倾斜。第三,在符合条件的债券中,欧洲央行倾向于选择那些来自相对排放密集型行业的债券。为了使CSPP脱碳,欧洲央行理论上可以按照以下三条路线采取行动:(i)调整CSPP资格标准,扩大合格低碳资产的范围;(ii)修改市场中立原则,使CSPP投资组合向低碳公司倾斜;(iii)在当前的资格和市场中立框架内购买迄今为止被忽视的低碳债券。由于所有的方法要么效果非常有限,要么与重大的理论和实践问题有关,我们得出的结论是,它们对积极绿色货币政策成功的贡献并不能得到保证,同时,以价格稳定为目标的货币政策也存在风险。
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引用次数: 0
A Primer on Green Finance: From Wishful Thinking to Marginal Impact 绿色金融入门:从一厢情愿到边际效应
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1515/roe-2023-0019
J. Krahnen, Jörg Rocholl, M. Thum
Abstract We raise some critical points against a naïve interpretation of “green finance” products and strategies. These critical insights are the background against which we take a closer look at instruments and policies that might allow green finance to become more impactful. In particular, we focus on the role of a taxonomy and investor activism. We also describe the interaction of government policies with green finance practice – an aspect, which has been mostly neglected in policy debates but needs to be taken into account. Finally, the special case of green government bonds is discussed.
摘要本文针对naïve对“绿色金融”产品和策略的解读提出了一些关键点。这些重要见解是我们进一步研究可能使绿色金融发挥更大影响力的工具和政策的背景。我们特别关注分类法和投资者行动主义的作用。我们还描述了政府政策与绿色金融实践的相互作用——这一方面在政策辩论中大多被忽视,但需要加以考虑。最后,讨论了绿色政府债券的特例。
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引用次数: 5
Investor Empowerment for Sustainability 授权投资者促进可持续发展
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1515/roe-2023-0016
W. Ringe
Abstract The transition to a sustainable economy currently involves a fundamental transformation of markets and market actors. This paper makes the case for investor empowerment as the main tool towards achieving greater sustainability in capital markets. This trust in institutional investors is grounded in various recent developments both on the supply side and the demand side of financial markets, and also in the increasing tendency of institutional investors to engage in common ownership. The need to build coalitions among different types of asset managers or institutional investors, and to convince fellow investors of any given initiative, can then act as an in-built filter helping to overcome the pursuit of idiosyncratic motives and supporting only those campaigns that are seconded by a majority of investors. In particular, institutionalized investor platforms have emerged over recent years as a force for investor empowerment, serving to coordinate investor campaigns and to share the costs of engagement. ESG engagement has the potential to become a very powerful driver towards a more sustainability-oriented future. Any regulatory activity should then be limited to a facilitative and supportive role.
当前,向可持续经济的转型涉及市场和市场参与者的根本转变。本文将投资者赋权作为实现资本市场更大可持续性的主要工具。这种对机构投资者的信任基于金融市场供给侧和需求侧的各种最新发展,也基于机构投资者参与共同所有权的日益增长的趋势。因此,在不同类型的资产管理公司或机构投资者之间建立联盟,并说服其他投资者接受任何特定倡议的需求,可以作为一种内置过滤器,帮助克服对特殊动机的追求,只支持那些得到大多数投资者支持的活动。特别是,近年来,制度化的投资者平台已经成为投资者赋权的一股力量,有助于协调投资者活动并分担参与成本。参与ESG有可能成为推动未来更加可持续发展的强大动力。因此,任何监管活动都应限于促进和支持的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Assessment of the Human Capital Impact on the Population Income in the European and Asian Regions of Russia 人力资本对俄罗斯欧亚地区人口收入影响的比较评估
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-26 DOI: 10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50
A. Aletdinova, A. Koritskiy, A. N. Shadrintseva
<jats:p><jats:italic>The relevance of the study is explained by the link between economic</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>growth and investment in human capital.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>The purpose of the study </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>is a comparative analysis of the dynamics</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of the return of physical and human capital in the European and</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>Asian regions of Russia.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>Materials and methods. </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>In the article, the authors use the extended</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>Cobb-Douglas production function and conduct a regression spatial</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>analysis based on data of the official Russian statistics.</jats:italic></jats:p><jats:p><jats:bold><jats:italic>Results.</jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:bold><jats:italic> </jats:italic></jats:bold><jats:italic>There</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>are</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>estimates</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>relationship</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>between</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>income</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>population</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>regions</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>with</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>number</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>employed,</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>with</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>volume</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>fixed</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>assets</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>of</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>regions</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>and</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>human</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>capital;</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>the</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:italic>wage</jats:italic><jats:italic> </jats:italic><jats:ital
经济增长与人力资本投资之间的联系解释了该研究的相关性。本研究的目的是对俄罗斯欧洲和亚洲地区物质和人力资本回报的动态进行比较分析。材料和方法。本文采用扩展的Cobb-Douglas生产函数,对俄罗斯官方统计数据进行回归空间分析。估算了地区人口收入与就业人数、地区固定资产规模和人力资本之间的关系;各地区就业人口的工资基金与各地区固定资产规模和人力资本的弹性系数都是合理的。对弹性系数的取值进行了分析和解释。特别是,亚洲和欧洲地区家庭固定资产收入弹性系数呈下降趋势;作者用企业固定资本更新投资水平低来解释这一现象。各区域经济中就业人数对人口收入弹性系数的影响明显较高,并有增加的趋势。同时,人力资本对人口收入的影响强于固定资产和
{"title":"Comparative Assessment of the Human Capital Impact on the Population Income in the European and Asian Regions of Russia","authors":"A. Aletdinova, A. Koritskiy, A. N. Shadrintseva","doi":"10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21686/10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-41-50","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;The relevance of the study is explained by the link between economic&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;growth and investment in human capital.&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;The purpose of the study &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;is a comparative analysis of the dynamics&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of the return of physical and human capital in the European and&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;Asian regions of Russia.&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;Materials and methods. &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;In the article, the authors use the extended&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;Cobb-Douglas production function and conduct a regression spatial&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;analysis based on data of the official Russian statistics.&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:p&gt;&lt;jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;Results.&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;/jats:bold&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;There&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;are&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;estimates&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;relationship&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;between&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;income&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;population&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;regions&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;with&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;number&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;employed,&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;with&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;volume&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;fixed&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;assets&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;of&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;regions&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;and&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;human&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;capital;&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;the&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt;wage&lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:italic&gt; &lt;/jats:italic&gt;&lt;jats:ital","PeriodicalId":48456,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economics and Statistics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74784668","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessment of the Coefficient of Tension in the Labor Market. Regional Aspect 劳动力市场紧张系数的评估。区域方面
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-2-13-20
O. S. Koshevoy
.Assessing the situation in the labor market of the region, and ultimately forecasting the level of employment and unemployment, is a complex multidimensional  mathematical  problem  that  does not have a reliable and proven solution to date. Research in the direction of creating evaluation methods and forecasting the situation on the labor market is an actual task. The subject of the work is an assessment of the situation on the labor market of the Volga Federal District, through the analysis and modeling of the coefficient of tension in the labor market. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology that allows making a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District. The information base of the study was the results of a sample survey of the labor force conducted by state statistics bodies in accordance with the classifier of objects of administrative-territorial division (OKATO – Russian Classification on Objects of  Administrative  Division).  To  date, the length of the time series is four time periods (2018–2021) of the year. As methods of analysis and modeling, methods of descriptive statistics were used, as well as mathematical modeling of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market and the rating index of the socio-economic situation of the Volga Federal District. It is shown that the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the  labor  market  as  a  whole  for  all  subjects  of the Russian Federation is extremely heterogeneous, which makes it difficult to model processes in the labor market. At the same time, the statistical grouping of the coefficient of tension in the labor market of the regions of the Volga Federal District is quite homogeneous, which makes it possible to carry out simulations using such an integral index as the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District. In the process of modeling in the environment of the SPSS computer program, a nonlinear regression model of the relationship between the coefficient of tension in the labor market (dependent variable) and the place in the rating of the socio-economic situation of the subject of the Volga Federal District (explanatory variable) was formed. The model allows you to make a preliminary forecast of the situation on the labor market of the subject of the Volga Federal District.
评估该地区的劳动力市场状况,并最终预测就业和失业水平,是一个复杂的多维数学问题,迄今为止还没有可靠和经过验证的解决方案。在创造评估方法和预测劳动力市场形势的方向上进行研究是一项实际任务。本工作的主题是通过对劳动力市场紧张系数的分析和建模,对伏尔加河联邦区的劳动力市场状况进行评估。这项研究的目的是制定一种方法,以便对伏尔加河联邦区主题的劳动力市场情况进行初步预测。本研究的信息基础是国家统计机构根据行政区划对象分类(OKATO -俄罗斯行政区划对象分类)对劳动力进行抽样调查的结果。到目前为止,时间序列的长度为一年中的四个时间段(2018-2021)。作为分析和建模的方法,使用了描述性统计方法,并对劳动力市场紧张系数与伏尔加河联邦区社会经济状况评级指数之间的关系进行了数学建模。研究表明,俄罗斯联邦所有主体的整个劳动力市场紧张系数的统计分组是极不一致的,这使得很难对劳动力市场的过程进行建模。与此同时,伏尔加河联邦区各地区劳动力市场紧张系数的统计分组相当均匀,这使得使用伏尔加河联邦区主体社会经济状况评级等综合指标进行模拟成为可能。在SPSS计算机程序环境下建模的过程中,形成了劳动力市场紧张系数(因变量)与伏尔加河联邦区主体社会经济状况评分(解释变量)之间关系的非线性回归模型。该模型允许您对伏尔加河联邦区主体的劳动力市场情况进行初步预测。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation, Informational Environment and Expectations of Households 通货膨胀、信息环境与家庭预期
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-37-52
S. Vinokurov, A. Medved
The background information that forms the expectations of economic entities is a significant factor that determines their behavior.The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the relationship of inflation, perception and expectation of inflation by households with the parameters of the information (news’) background on the example of the Russian Federation.The materials for processing as a Russian information background were news’ reports issued by leading Russian TV channels and duplicated on the relevant sites, as well as Internet search (the number of news and search queries, the length of the headlines of the text versions of news, the frequency of mentioning certain topics in them, the tonality of texts), GoogleTrends data on internetrequests. The tonality of the texts was evaluated using automatic analyzers EurikaEngine and Repustate. Data from the reports of the Public Opinion Fund for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation posted on its website are also used; these reports contain monthly data on actual inflation (consumer price index) for 12 months and the results of respondents’ surveys on the perception of inflation, inflation expectations, consumer sentiment, assessments of economic and personal prospects, changes in behavior (starting a job search, making large purchases, etc.) and a wide range of other characteristics of public sentiment related to inflation. To process the collected data, correlation and regression analysis was used, as well as specific methods: Granger causality, principal component methods and lasso regression. As a result of the analysis, statistically significant correlations are found, which may be associated with individual reactions to the topics covered, expressed in changes in mood and behavior.Thus, inflation is negatively correlated with the number of political news on the “Russia” channel and with the length of headlines of text versions of political news of the “Pervy” channel, and positively correlated with web-search queries on the topic “Inflation”. Including these variables in a regression that estimates inflation based on lagged values significantly improves the quality of the regression, although their impact is small in terms of absolute values. We analyze how these relations change after the shift in the exchange rate regime and the introduction of inflation targeting. We find that in the period preceding to the shift, web-search demonstrated statistical significance in the equations we evaluate, and political news did not, while in the subsequent period, the opposite was true. We observe a connection between the parameters under consideration with certain aspects of individual behavior, such as the search for a better-paid job, or doing business. Finally, we find imperfections in the information activity of the Central Bank: an increase in the frequency of its mention in the news reduces people’s confidence that the inflation target can be achieved.In conclusion, the authors come
形成经济主体预期的背景信息是决定经济主体行为的重要因素。本研究的目的是以俄罗斯联邦为例,识别和评价通货膨胀、家庭对通货膨胀的感知和预期与信息(新闻)背景参数之间的关系。作为俄语信息背景处理的材料是俄罗斯主要电视频道发布并在相关网站上复制的新闻报道,以及互联网搜索(新闻和搜索查询的数量,新闻文本版本的标题长度,其中提及某些主题的频率,文本的调性),谷歌趋势的互联网请求数据。使用自动分析器EurikaEngine和Repustate对文本的调性进行评估。还使用了俄罗斯联邦中央银行舆论基金在其网站上公布的报告中的数据;这些报告包含12个月的实际通货膨胀(消费者价格指数)的月度数据,以及受访者对通货膨胀的看法、通货膨胀预期、消费者情绪、对经济和个人前景的评估、行为变化(开始找工作、大宗采购等)的调查结果,以及与通货膨胀有关的一系列其他公众情绪特征。对收集到的数据进行相关分析和回归分析,具体方法有:格兰杰因果关系法、主成分法和套索回归法。分析的结果是,发现了统计上显著的相关性,这可能与个人对所涵盖主题的反应有关,表现为情绪和行为的变化。因此,通货膨胀与“俄罗斯”频道的政治新闻数量和“Pervy”频道政治新闻文本版本的标题长度呈负相关,与“通货膨胀”主题的网络搜索查询呈正相关。在根据滞后值估计通货膨胀的回归中包括这些变量可以显著提高回归的质量,尽管它们的影响就绝对值而言很小。我们分析了在汇率制度转变和引入通货膨胀目标制后,这些关系是如何变化的。我们发现,在转变之前的一段时间里,网络搜索在我们评估的方程中显示出统计意义,而政治新闻没有,而在随后的一段时间里,情况正好相反。我们观察到所考虑的参数与个人行为的某些方面之间存在联系,例如寻找一份收入更高的工作或经商。最后,我们发现央行的信息活动存在缺陷:新闻中提及央行的频率增加,降低了人们对通胀目标能够实现的信心。最后,作者得出以下基本结论:信息环境的参数可能适用于通货膨胀的业务估计,通货膨胀目标制的效果(即中央银行对通货膨胀过程的更大可控性)增加了政治新闻在个人决策中的重要性,信息政策和俄罗斯联邦中央银行的整体形象需要改善。
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引用次数: 0
Methods of Calculating the Indexes of Intellectual Capital of Organizations 组织智力资本指数的计算方法
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-26-36
V. Korzhak
Competitive functioning at the micro and macro levels of businesses in different industries creates the need to make changes in the assessment of the impact on the performance of companies of tangible and intangible assets, leading to an increase in the value of both products and companies. In this context, it is appropriate to measure and evaluate intellectual capital, which includes not only goodwill, shares and intellectual property, but also organizational aspects (strategy, database, network data), and relationships with customers, partners, etc. Scientists and economists have studied the issues of defining and measuring intellectual capital for more than 30 years, however, there is no unified approach yet.This study presents the results of the analysis of approaches to the definition of the concept of “intellectual capital”, its components and methods of calculating the indexes of intellectual capital of organizations.The purpose of the study is to determine the direction of development of research concerning the calculation of indexes of intellectual capital on the value of organizations and indexes reflecting the state of individual elements and subelements of intellectual capital.Empirical base and research methods. The issues of measuring intellectual capital are reflected in the works of Edvinsson (1997), Sweibi (2010), assessing its impact on the value of companies and the effectiveness of their activities operating in the developed countries - Zegala (2010), Clark (2011), Liu (2017) - and developing countries - Garanina (2010), Bayburina, Bykova (2012), Andreeva (2016) [1, 5] and other scientists. The works of these researchers formed the basis of the research conducted in this article. This study used general scientific methods such as comparison, deduction, induction and analysis.Results. The paper presents the results of the analysis and systematization of approaches to the definition of “intellectual capital” and its components, methods for calculating its indexes and assessing their impact on the financial results of companies. Currently, there is also a need for research to assess the mutual influence of individual elements of intellectual capital. In order to identify the industry specifics of the impact of intellectual capital components on the value of organizations, the methods given in the article should be tested separately using data from companies from different industries. When conducting an analysis, it is important to take into account factors related to the external environment of the company, such as the level of economic development of the country in which the company operates, as well as fluctuations in economic activity.Conclusion. The practical value of the paper lies in the possibility of applying its results in the process of making managerial decisions of organizations in various fields. The proposed options for identifying and calculating indexes can significantly affect the financial growth of organization
在不同行业的企业的微观和宏观层面上的竞争功能创造了对有形和无形资产的公司绩效影响的评估做出改变的需要,从而导致产品和公司价值的增加。在这种情况下,衡量和评估智力资本是合适的,它不仅包括商誉、股份和知识产权,还包括组织方面(战略、数据库、网络数据),以及与客户、合作伙伴的关系等。科学家和经济学家对智力资本的定义和衡量问题进行了30多年的研究,但至今没有统一的方法。本文对“智力资本”概念的定义、构成要素和组织智力资本指数的计算方法进行了分析。研究的目的是确定组织价值智力资本指标的计算和反映智力资本个体要素和子要素状态的指标的研究发展方向。实证基础与研究方法。衡量智力资本的问题反映在Edvinsson(1997)、Sweibi(2010)的著作中,在发达国家(Zegala(2010)、Clark(2011)、Liu(2017))和发展中国家(Garanina(2010)、Bayburina、Bykova(2012)、Andreeva(2016)[1,5]等科学家的著作中评估了智力资本对公司价值和经营活动有效性的影响。这些研究人员的工作构成了本文研究的基础。本研究采用比较、演绎、归纳、分析等一般科学方法。本文介绍了对“智力资本”及其组成部分的定义、计算其指标和评估其对公司财务业绩影响的方法的分析和系统化的结果。目前,还需要对智力资本各个要素之间的相互影响进行研究。为了确定智力资本成分对组织价值影响的行业具体情况,本文中给出的方法应该使用来自不同行业的公司的数据分别进行测试。在进行分析时,重要的是要考虑到与公司外部环境有关的因素,例如公司经营所在国的经济发展水平,以及经济活动的波动。本文的实用价值在于其结果可以应用于各个领域组织的管理决策过程中。所提议的确定和计算指数的备选办法可以显著影响各组织的财务增长,补充维持和编制会计和财务报表的传统方法,从而扩大其全面战略发展。
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引用次数: 1
Estimation of the Impact of the Age Difference in Households of the Same Generation on the Age Level of Consumption 同代人家庭年龄差异对消费年龄水平影响的估计
IF 8 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.21686/2500-3925-2023-1-64-72
K. Kuznetsov
The available methods for calculating the age level of consumption focus on determining the level of consumption by children. At the same time, previous studies show a decrease in the level of consumption after retirement. From a research point of view, it is of practical interest to estimate the distortion of one-year age profile of consumption depending on the age difference between the adult members of the household. Among common episodic households, the paper compares the age profiles of consumption for households with two adults aged 18 to 80 years. The paper compares indexes of average per capita consumption, and estimates the level of age difference in households for the age level of consumption. The author introduces such a concept as “net consumption”, under the influence of which sensitivity to age is absorbed. To create “net consumption” in the general chronology, only households with a minimum age difference are examined.The purpose of the study. Estimation of the age level of consumption depending on the demographic characteristics of the household is little studied in modern literature. As a rule, the papers provide methods for assessing the level of children consumption. However, when creating age profiles of consumption, the age characteristics of households are not taken into account. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of the difference in the age of people living together in a household on the age profiles of consumption. Both in Russia and in the EU countries, the average difference in age between the first marriage is on average 2.5 years, and the largest difference can reach more than 30 years. From a statistical point of view, it is of practical interest to study the average per capita age level of consumption depending on the difference in the age of a married couple.Materials and methods. The source of data for the study is the Household Budget Survey (HBS) conducted by Rosstat for 2020. The paper compares age profiles of consumption created by the minimum age of the household, by the maximum, by the average, and by the classical method. In addition, the paper compares the age profiles created by the classical method, taking into account the limitation of the age difference between household members.Results. The results obtained from the 2020 HBS survey allow conclusions to be drawn about different age profiles depending on the proposed calculation methods. The results of the study showed that among households consisting of two people, almost a third of households (34.1%) have an age difference of more than 5 years. In the context of calculating one-year age profiles of consumption, a significant age difference in age will lead to a distortion of age profiles of consumption. Among households consisting of two people, the largest difference in the level of average per capita consumption between all households of two people and households of two people with an age difference of no more than 1 year is observed in ea
现有的计算消费年龄水平的方法侧重于确定儿童的消费水平。与此同时,先前的研究表明,退休后的消费水平有所下降。从研究的角度来看,根据家庭成年成员之间的年龄差异来估计一年的消费年龄分布的扭曲是有实际意义的。在常见的偶发家庭中,本文比较了有两个18岁至80岁成年人的家庭的消费年龄特征。本文通过对人均消费指标的比较,估算了家庭消费年龄水平的年龄差异水平。作者引入了“净消费”的概念,在其影响下吸收了年龄敏感性。为了在一般年表中创建“净消费”,只检查年龄差异最小的家庭。研究的目的。根据家庭的人口特征来估计消费的年龄水平,在现代文献中研究得很少。通常,这些论文提供了评估儿童消费水平的方法。但是,在制作消费年龄分布图时,没有考虑到家庭的年龄特征。这项研究的目的是评估一个家庭中生活在一起的人的年龄差异对消费年龄分布的影响。无论是在俄罗斯还是在欧盟国家,初婚的平均年龄差距平均为2.5岁,最大的差距可达30岁以上。从统计学的角度来看,研究夫妻年龄差异对人均消费年龄水平的影响是有实际意义的。材料和方法。该研究的数据来源是俄罗斯国家统计局进行的2020年家庭预算调查(HBS)。本文比较了家庭最小年龄法、最大年龄法、平均年龄法和经典年龄法所产生的消费年龄分布。此外,考虑到家庭成员年龄差异的局限性,本文还比较了经典方法生成的年龄谱。从2020年哈佛商学院的调查中获得的结果可以根据提出的计算方法得出关于不同年龄特征的结论。调查结果显示,在两个人组成的家庭中,几乎三分之一(34.1%)的家庭年龄相差超过5岁。在计算1年消费年龄分布的背景下,年龄的显著年龄差异会导致消费年龄分布的扭曲。在两人组成的家庭中,所有两人组成的家庭与年龄差距不超过1岁的两人组成的家庭的人均消费水平差异最大的是在早期工作年龄(从18岁到22岁)。引入的限制措施使18-19岁人群的消费水平降低了约三分之一。与传统计算相比,引入的限制使22-45岁年龄组的人均消费水平平均提高了9.4%。在70-80岁年龄组中观察到相反的情况:引入的限制使人均消费水平降低了2.9%。根据不同的方法特点,年龄消费的计算结果也不尽相同。作者引入了“净年龄消费”一词,即家庭成员年龄相差不超过1岁的家庭。估算人均消费的建议可以应用于整个生命周期的人类消费模型。同时,一般来说,家庭特征与“模式”消费相差甚远,这就需要进一步研究根据家庭特征影响消费水平的因素。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Review of Economics and Statistics
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