Journal of Banking & Finance最新文献

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Financial development and the effectiveness of macroprudential and capital flow management measures 金融发展与宏观审慎和资本流动管理措施的有效性

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107504

Yusuf Soner Başkaya , Ilhyock Shim , Philip Turner

Using quarterly data on macroprudential policy (MaPP) measures and capital flow management measures (CFMs) in 39 economies over 2000–2020, we analyse how domestic credit and cross-border capital flows respond to such measures. We distinguish price- and quantity-based MaPP measures and CFMs, and examine if the level of financial development matters in explaining policy effectiveness. Tightening MaPP measures significantly reduce household credit when the level of financial development is relatively low, and this is driven more by price-based MaPP measures. Also, price- and quantity-based CFMs slow down bank inflows with the former effective at relatively low levels of financial development and the latter at relatively high levels. Finally, we present evidence on leakages associated with quantity-based measures. Tightening quantity-based CFMs increases offshore bond issuance when the level of financial development is relatively low, while tightening quantity-based MaPP measures increase bank and bond inflows when financial development is relatively high.

利用2000-2020年39个经济体宏观审慎政策（MaPP）措施和资本流动管理措施（cfm）的季度数据，我们分析了国内信贷和跨境资本流动对这些措施的反应。我们区分了基于价格和数量的MaPP措施和cfm，并研究了金融发展水平在解释政策有效性方面是否重要。当金融发展水平相对较低时，收紧MaPP措施会显著减少家庭信贷，这更多地是由基于价格的MaPP措施推动的。此外，基于价格和数量的cfm减缓了银行流入，前者在相对较低的金融发展水平上有效，后者在相对较高的金融发展水平上有效。最后，我们提出了与基于数量的措施相关的泄漏的证据。当金融发展水平相对较低时，收紧基于数量的cfm措施增加了离岸债券发行，而当金融发展水平相对较高时，收紧基于数量的MaPP措施增加了银行和债券流入。

引用次数: 0

Bank board structure and loan syndication 银行董事会结构和银团贷款

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107511

Lindsay Baran , Steven A. Dennis , Maneesh K. Shukla

We study the impact of bank board structure as a signaling mechanism in loan syndication. We find that the quality of the lead arranger’s board, and specifically the monitoring quality of the board, has a positive effect on the ability to syndicate a loan. The impact of board quality is separate and distinct from lead arranger reputation. Board monitoring quality plays a more important role when the borrower and lead arranger have no prior relationship, after the bankruptcy of an existing borrower, and during the financial crisis. We posit that one channel for our findings is through board oversight of the CEO, and we provide evidence that CEO quality partially mediates the relationship between board quality and loan syndication. Overall, we conclude the quality of the lead arranger’s board, as a separate and distinct effect to reputation, serves as a credible signal to participant banks, mitigating moral hazard and adverse selection concerns.

我们研究了银行董事会结构作为银团贷款信号机制的影响。我们发现，牵头安排人董事会的质量，特别是董事会的监督质量，对银团贷款的能力有积极影响。董事会质量的影响与首席编曲人的声誉是分开和不同的。当借款人和牵头安排人没有任何先前关系时，在现有借款人破产后，以及在金融危机期间，董事会监督质量发挥更重要的作用。我们假设我们的发现的一个渠道是通过董事会对CEO的监督，我们提供的证据表明，CEO质量部分中介董事会质量和银团贷款之间的关系。总体而言，我们得出结论，作为对声誉的独立而独特的影响，牵头行董事会的质量可以向参与银行发出可信的信号，减轻道德风险和逆向选择担忧。

引用次数: 0

Gender composition and conflicts of interest in the financial industry: Evidence from analysts’ target price optimism 金融行业的性别构成和利益冲突：来自分析师目标价乐观的证据

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107484

Andria Charalambous , Alan Duboisée de Ricquebourg , Elvira Scarlat , Karin Shields

A barrage of regulatory requirements has been issued to increase the impartiality of sell-side analysts’ research reports and create a wall between equity research and investment banking departments. Yet studies suggest a persistent organizational culture within the profession that encourages optimistically biased research reports for current and potential investment banking clients. To examine potential solutions to this issue, we focus on sell-side analysts’ target price optimism and find that analysts at brokerages with higher female representation issue significantly less optimistic target prices, especially when they face incentives to inflate forecasts due to their brokerage’s affiliation to the firm being analyzed. To identify the mechanism behind this result, we explore analysts’ optimism bias in situations when mergers between banks change gender composition in a way that is exogenous to the analysts, as well as when analysts voluntarily switch between brokerages with different gender compositions. The results of these analyses, along with a lag and forward test of the relation between the female proportion of analysts and optimism bias, indicate that gender composition plays a significant role in shaping brokerage culture. We rule out that results are driven by the gender of the individual analyst and confirm our results’ robustness to various specifications. Our findings suggest the potential for gender composition of the workforce to aid self-regulation in the financial industry.

为了提高卖方分析师研究报告的公正性，并在股票研究部门和投行部门之间筑起一道墙，中国政府出台了一系列监管要求。然而，研究表明，在这个行业中存在着一种持久的组织文化，这种文化鼓励向现有和潜在的投行客户发布带有乐观偏见的研究报告。为了研究这一问题的潜在解决方案，我们关注卖方分析师的目标价乐观态度，并发现女性代表比例较高的券商的分析师给出的目标价明显不那么乐观，特别是当她们因其券商与被分析公司的关联而面临夸大预测的激励时。为了确定这一结果背后的机制，我们探讨了当银行之间的合并以一种外生的方式改变了分析师的性别构成，以及当分析师自愿在不同性别构成的券商之间切换时，分析师的乐观偏见。这些分析的结果，以及对女性分析师比例与乐观偏见之间关系的滞后和正向检验，表明性别构成在塑造经纪文化方面起着重要作用。我们排除了结果是由个体分析师的性别驱动的，并确认我们的结果对各种规格的稳健性。我们的研究结果表明，劳动力的性别构成可能有助于金融行业的自我监管。

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引用次数: 0

Trade liberalization and municipal financing costs 贸易自由化与市政融资成本

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107524

Chunbo Liu , Liang Xu , Liuming Yang , Yang Zhou

This study examines the effects of trade liberalization on municipal financing costs. Using the granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to China as an exogenous shock, we find that U.S. counties that are more exposed to trade liberalization issue bonds with significantly higher tax-adjusted yield spreads. Moreover, these counties pay higher gross spreads and are less likely to issue bonds after PNTR. We also show that secondary market yield spreads increase significantly in response to the U.S. granting of PNTR to China. In addition, we provide evidence that a reduction in debt serving capacity serves as a channel underlying the trade shock effects. Our findings highlight the costs of trade liberalization for public finance.

本研究探讨贸易自由化对市政融资成本的影响。利用给予中国永久正常贸易关系（PNTR）作为外生冲击，我们发现受贸易自由化影响更大的美国县发行的债券具有显著更高的税收调整收益率差。此外，这些国家支付更高的总息差，在PNTR之后不太可能发行债券。我们还表明，二级市场收益率差在美国给予中国PNTR后显著增加。此外，我们提供的证据表明，偿债能力的下降是贸易冲击效应背后的一个渠道。我们的研究结果强调了贸易自由化对公共财政的成本。

引用次数: 0

Trading for good: How active mutual funds influence corporate social responsibility through stock trading 为善交易：活跃的共同基金如何通过股票交易影响企业的社会责任

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107523

Jie Jiao , Lin Tong , An Yan

We hypothesize that active mutual funds can promote corporate social responsibility (CSR) in their portfolio firms through stock trading activities. Leveraging mutual fund family mergers to identify causal effects, we find that a firm’s CSR commitment increases when its mutual funds exhibit stronger CSR preferences through trading. This effect is stronger when mutual fund investors are more active or when the firm’s stock exhibits higher liquidity. Additionally, our results suggest that the trading channel complements non-trading mechanisms through which active mutual funds influence firm CSR.

我们假设主动共同基金可以通过股票交易活动促进其投资组合公司的企业社会责任。利用共同基金家族并购来确定因果关系，我们发现，当共同基金通过交易表现出更强的企业社会责任偏好时，企业的社会责任承诺会增加。当共同基金投资者更活跃或公司股票表现出更高的流动性时，这种效应更强。此外，我们的研究结果表明，交易渠道是积极的共同基金影响企业社会责任的非交易机制的补充。

引用次数: 0

Motivated beliefs about stock returns 对股票收益的动机信念

IF 3.8 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107510

Carlos Cueva , Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe

Systematic biases in return expectations can distort stock prices and lead to inefficient capital allocation. In this paper, we report experimental evidence that buying a stock induces optimistically biased expectations when its price drops below the purchase price. We find this effect across two experimental settings, a controlled laboratory experiment and a six-week-long online experiment involving real equities traded in the stock market in real time. Our results are consistent with the idea that investors form “motivated beliefs” about stocks returns. In addition, motivated beliefs explain a substantial part of the reluctance to sell losing stocks, as in the well-known disposition effect.

回报预期的系统性偏差会扭曲股价，导致资本配置效率低下。在本文中，我们报告了实验证据，即当股票价格低于购买价格时，购买股票会产生乐观偏见预期。我们在两个实验设置中发现了这种效应，一个是受控的实验室实验，另一个是为期六周的在线实验，涉及股票市场上实时交易的真实股票。我们的结果与投资者对股票回报形成“动机信念”的观点是一致的。此外，动机信念在很大程度上解释了不愿出售亏损股票的原因，如众所周知的处置效应。

引用次数: 0

Sovereign loan guarantees and financial stability 主权贷款担保和金融稳定

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107483

Ivan De Lorenzo Buratta , Tiago Pinheiro

We analyze the effects of sovereign loan guarantees on financial stability in Portugal using a DSGE model. Sovereign loan guarantees decrease the default rate of banks and increase credit. On the other hand, guarantees increase the leverage and default rate of firms. These effects are larger the lower the sensitivity of the capital of banks to capital requirements. Behind these results are the reduction in regulatory risk-weights and the transfer of loan losses from banks to the sovereign brought by sovereign loan guarantees. A decomposition of the impact of sovereign loan guarantees suggests that insuring banks against loan losses can complement and enhance conventional macroprudential policy.

我们使用DSGE模型分析主权贷款担保对葡萄牙金融稳定的影响。主权贷款担保降低了银行的违约率，增加了信贷。另一方面，担保增加了企业的杠杆率和违约率。银行资本对资本要求的敏感性越低，这些影响就越大。这些结果的背后是监管风险权重的降低，以及主权贷款担保带来的贷款损失从银行转移到主权国家。对主权贷款担保影响的分解表明，为银行提供贷款损失保险可以补充和加强传统的宏观审慎政策。

引用次数: 0

Trade policy sensitivity and global stock returns: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election 贸易政策敏感性与全球股市回报：来自2016年美国总统大选的证据

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107517

Dien Giau Bui , Iftekhar Hasan , Chih-Yung Lin , Ngoc Thuy Mai , Chris Vaike

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify firms’ sensitivity to shifts in bilateral trade flows between the United States and its trading partners. We exploit the 2016 U.S. presidential election as an exogenous shock to trade policy expectations and assess the stock market reactions of firms across 52 countries. Our findings indicate that firms with higher trade policy sensitivity experienced significantly more negative stock returns surrounding the election. These results are robust to variations in event windows, return model specifications, and alternative estimations of trade policy sensitivity.

本文介绍了一种量化企业对美国与其贸易伙伴之间双边贸易流动变化的敏感性的新方法。我们利用2016年美国总统大选作为对贸易政策预期的外生冲击，并评估了52个国家公司的股市反应。我们的研究结果表明，贸易政策敏感性较高的公司在大选前后经历了更多的负股票回报。这些结果对于事件窗口、回报模型规范和贸易政策敏感性的替代估计的变化具有鲁棒性。

引用次数: 0

Central bank intervention and bank liquidity: Evidence from the paycheck protection program 中央银行干预和银行流动性：来自薪水保护计划的证据

IF 3.8 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107522

Parush Arora , Derek Tran

This paper explores the role of monetary systems when fiscal policy is implemented through the financial sector during a liquidity shock. We use loan-level transactions from the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) to understand how a bank’s decision to borrow funds from the discount window (DW) affected its lending behavior during the COVID-19 crisis. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find a causal relationship between DW access/borrowing and the number of PPP loans extended by large banks, indicating that access to DW increased the effectiveness of the PPP. Although both large and small banks accessed the DW in the absence of a long-term funding source, accessing the DW almost doubled the PPP lending for large banks, but did not have a statistically significant effect for smaller banks. However, during the period without long-term funding, the DW played an important role in relaxing liquidity constraints for large banks and increasing the overall efficiency of the PPP. Beyond PPP loans, we find that DW access led banks to increase their non-PPP lending by 70 % relative to their reserves, suggesting broader benefits to credit provision. The DW effect on PPP lending disappeared after the introduction of PPP Lending Facility as the banks substituted towards the long-term funding, however its impact on non-PPP lending remained significant in both phases.

本文探讨了在流动性冲击期间通过金融部门实施财政政策时货币体系的作用。我们利用工资保障计划（PPP）的贷款级交易，了解银行从贴现窗口（DW）借款的决定如何影响其在COVID-19危机期间的贷款行为。使用工具变量方法，我们发现DW获取/借贷与大型银行提供的PPP贷款数量之间存在因果关系，表明获取DW提高了PPP的有效性。尽管在缺乏长期资金来源的情况下，大银行和小银行都使用了DW，但使用DW几乎使大银行的PPP贷款增加了一倍，但对小银行没有统计学上的显著影响。然而，在没有长期融资的时期，DW在放松大型银行的流动性限制和提高PPP的整体效率方面发挥了重要作用。除了PPP贷款外，我们发现DW准入导致银行的非PPP贷款相对于其储备增加了70%，这表明信贷提供的好处更广泛。在引入PPP贷款便利后，随着银行转向长期融资，DW对PPP贷款的影响消失，但其对非PPP贷款的影响在两个阶段都很显著。

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引用次数: 0

Life insurance convexity 人寿保险的凸性

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107502

Christian Kubitza , Nicolaus Grochola , Helmut Gründl

Life insurers sell savings contracts with surrender options, which allow policyholders to prematurely receive guaranteed surrender values. These surrender options move toward the money when interest rates rise. Hence, higher interest rates raise surrender rates, as we document empirically by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in monetary policy. Using a calibrated model, we examine the impact of surrender options on insurers’ liquidity and portfolio rebalancing during an interest rate rise. We show how asset sales result from insurer balance sheet dynamics and explore their interaction with investment strategies and surrender value guarantees.

寿险公司出售带有退保期权的储蓄合同，允许投保人提前获得保证的退保价值。当利率上升时，这些退让期权向货币方向移动。因此，更高的利率提高了退保率，正如我们通过利用货币政策中看似合理的外生变化的经验证明的那样。本文利用一个校准模型，考察了利率上升期间退保期权对保险公司流动性和投资组合再平衡的影响。我们展示了资产出售是如何从保险公司的资产负债表动态中产生的，并探讨了它们与投资策略和退保价值保证的相互作用。

引用次数: 0

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