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Country financial development and the extension of trade credit by firms with market power 国家金融发展和具有市场力量的公司扩大贸易信贷
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107516
Koresh Galil , Offer Moshe Shapir , Rodrigo Zeidan
Prior research on the impact of market power on firms’ willingness to extend trade credit has produced inconsistent results, highlighting a critical gap in understanding firm behavior. This study addresses this issue by analyzing a comprehensive dataset of industrial firms across 26 countries, focusing on how the relationship between market power and trade credit depends on a country’s financial development level. Firms with monopolistic power often restrict credit provision to improve cash flow. However, our findings reveal a U-shaped relationship, where monopolistic firms in countries with either underdeveloped or highly developed financial sectors are more likely to extend trade credit than those in mid-level financial systems. This highlights the moderating role of financial development in shaping the interaction between market power and trade credit behavior.
先前关于市场力量对企业扩大贸易信贷意愿的影响的研究产生了不一致的结果,突出了对企业行为的理解的关键差距。本研究通过分析26个国家工业企业的综合数据集来解决这一问题,重点关注市场力量和贸易信贷之间的关系如何取决于一个国家的金融发展水平。拥有垄断权力的公司通常会限制信贷供应以改善现金流。然而,我们的研究结果揭示了一个u型关系,即金融部门不发达或高度发达国家的垄断企业比中等金融体系国家的垄断企业更有可能提供贸易信贷。这突出了金融发展在塑造市场力量和贸易信贷行为之间的相互作用中的调节作用。
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引用次数: 0
Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers 全球宏观金融周期及其溢出效应
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107512
Jongrim Ha , M. Ayhan Kose , Christopher Otrok , Eswar S. Prasad
We develop a new dynamic factor model to jointly characterize global macroeconomic and financial cycles and the spillovers between them. The model decomposes macroeconomic cycles into the part driven by global and country-specific macro factors and the part driven by spillovers from financial variables. We consider cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) and financial variables (equity and house prices, and interest rates). The global macro factor plays a major role in explaining G-7 business cycles, but there are also discernible spillovers from equity and house price shocks onto macroeconomic aggregates, at least over the past two decades, accounting for up to 17 % of the variation in global business cycle fluctuations. These spillovers operate mainly through the global macro factor rather than the country-specific macro factors (i.e., these spillovers affect business cycles in all G-7 economies), and are stronger for output and investment fluctuations and more prominent in the period leading up to and following the global financial crisis. We find weaker evidence of spillovers from macroeconomic cycles to financial variables, perhaps reflecting the predictive power of global financial markets.
我们建立了一个新的动态因素模型来共同表征全球宏观经济和金融周期及其溢出效应。该模型将宏观经济周期分解为由全球和特定国家宏观因素驱动的部分,以及由金融变量溢出效应驱动的部分。我们考虑宏观经济总量(产出、消费和投资)和金融变量(股票、房价和利率)的周期。全球宏观因素在解释七国集团商业周期方面发挥着重要作用,但至少在过去二十年中,股票和房价冲击对宏观经济总量也有明显的溢出效应,占全球商业周期波动变化的17%。这些溢出效应主要通过全球宏观因素而不是具体国家的宏观因素发挥作用(即,这些溢出效应影响所有七国集团经济体的商业周期),并且在产出和投资波动方面更为强烈,在全球金融危机之前和之后的时期更为突出。我们发现宏观经济周期对金融变量溢出效应的证据较弱,这或许反映了全球金融市场的预测能力。
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引用次数: 0
Large dynamic covariance matrices and portfolio selection with a heterogeneous autoregressive model 大动态协方差矩阵与异质自回归模型的投资组合选择
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107505
Igor Honig, Felix Kircher
We propose a novel framework for modeling large dynamic covariance matrices via heterogeneous autoregressive volatility and correlation components. Our model provides direct forecasts of monthly covariance matrices and is flexible, parsimonious and simple to estimate using standard least squares methods. We address the problem of parameter estimation risks by employing nonlinear shrinkage methods, making our framework applicable in high dimensions. We perform a comprehensive empirical out-of-sample analysis and find significant statistical and economic improvements over common benchmark models. For minimum variance portfolios with over a thousand stocks, the annualized portfolio standard deviation improves to 8.92% compared to 9.75–10.43% for DCC-type models.
我们提出了一种新的框架,通过异构自回归波动率和相关成分来建模大型动态协方差矩阵。我们的模型提供了月度协方差矩阵的直接预测,并且使用标准最小二乘法进行估计是灵活、简洁和简单的。我们通过采用非线性收缩方法来解决参数估计风险的问题,使我们的框架适用于高维。我们进行了全面的实证样本外分析,发现与普通基准模型相比,有显著的统计和经济改进。对于超过1000只股票的最小方差组合,年化投资组合标准差提高到8.92%,而dcc模型的年化投资组合标准差为9.75-10.43%。
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引用次数: 0
How much do boards learn about CEO ability in crises? Evidence from CEO turnover 董事会对CEO在危机中的能力了解多少?来自CEO离职的证据
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107513
Peter Schäfer
I present evidence from CEO turnover decisions suggesting that boards update their beliefs about CEO ability more in industry crises than in booms. Consistent with predictions from an extended learning model that allows for increased productivity of CEO ability in crises, I find that the turnover-performance relation is weaker the more often the board has observed the CEO in past crises, and crisis performance reduces future dismissal risks more than boom performance. These effects persist after controlling for CEO entrenchment and firm effects, and they are stronger for more severe and recent crises. Employing a proxy of CEO ability, I also find that the dismissal risk of weak-ability CEOs is highest in crises. The results help refine our models of how boards learn about CEO ability and, in particular, help explain the turnover puzzle, i.e., why boards are more likely to dismiss CEOs in industry downturns: rather than misattributing poor industry conditions to CEOs, boards view performance in crises as a more informative signal of CEO ability than performance in booms.
我提供的证据表明,在行业危机时期,董事会更新他们对CEO能力的看法比在繁荣时期更多。与扩展学习模型的预测一致,该模型允许在危机中提高CEO能力的生产率,我发现董事会在过去的危机中观察CEO的频率越高,离职与绩效的关系就越弱,危机绩效比繁荣绩效更能降低未来解雇的风险。在控制了CEO堑壕效应和企业效应后,这些效应仍然存在,而且在更严重和最近的危机中更为明显。通过对CEO能力的评估,我还发现,在危机中,能力较弱的CEO被解雇的风险最高。这些结果有助于完善我们关于董事会如何了解CEO能力的模型,特别是有助于解释人员流失之谜,即为什么董事会更有可能在行业低迷时期解雇CEO:与其将糟糕的行业状况错误地归咎于CEO,董事会认为危机时期的表现比繁荣时期的表现更能说明CEO的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Tariff uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from United States–China permanent normal trade relations 关税不确定性与债务成本:来自美中永久正常贸易关系的证据
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107515
Huasheng Gao , Yuxi Wang
We examine the causal effect of tariff uncertainty on firms’ cost of debt. Our tests exploit a unique trade policy that reduces tariff uncertainty on Chinese imports without affecting the actual tariff rate, United States (U.S.)–China permanent normal trade relations (PNTR). We reveal a significant drop in the loan spreads for firms affected by PNTR relative to other firms. We further demonstrate that such effects occur through the channel of increasing firms’ performance predictability. Overall, by examining a clean measure of uncertainty from the tariff source, we provide evidence that reducing uncertainty has a causal effect on reducing the cost of debt.
我们考察了关税不确定性对企业债务成本的因果影响。我们的测试利用了一种独特的贸易政策,在不影响实际关税税率的情况下减少了中国进口产品的关税不确定性,即美中永久正常贸易关系(PNTR)。我们发现受PNTR影响的公司相对于其他公司的贷款息差显著下降。我们进一步证明,这种影响是通过增加企业绩效可预测性的渠道发生的。总体而言,通过对关税来源的不确定性进行检验,我们提供了证据,证明减少不确定性对降低债务成本具有因果效应。
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引用次数: 0
Competing for dark trades 竞争黑暗交易
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107509
Paul J. Irvine , Egle Karmaziene
We use recent European restrictions to evaluate how traders substitute across available dark pools. Our findings suggest that restricting dark trading at the most prominent platform has a detrimental effect on dark trading activity. Annual dark trading in a restricted stock decreases by more than 50 % over the six-month restriction period. Consistent with investors’ sticky relationships with specific dark pools, our results suggest that substitution across dark pools is remarkably low. Despite the availability of alternative dark pools, traders are unwilling to trade elsewhere. Our study provides evidence that dark trading is not a market of exchanges, but rather a collection of independent silos. This fact has implications for the vulnerability of dark trading to the introduction of an HFT into the pool, and sharpens our understanding of how the pecking order theory of trading actually functions.
我们使用欧洲最近的限制来评估交易者如何在可用的暗池中进行替代。我们的研究结果表明,在最突出的平台上限制暗交易对暗交易活动有不利影响。限制性股票的年度暗交易在六个月的限制期内减少了50%以上。与投资者与特定暗池的粘性关系一致,我们的研究结果表明,暗池之间的替代非常低。尽管存在可供选择的暗池,但交易员不愿在其他地方进行交易。我们的研究提供了证据,证明暗交易不是一个交易所市场,而是一个独立孤岛的集合。这一事实暗示了暗交易对高频交易引入池的脆弱性,并加深了我们对交易的优先顺序理论实际运作方式的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Financial development and the effectiveness of macroprudential and capital flow management measures 金融发展与宏观审慎和资本流动管理措施的有效性
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107504
Yusuf Soner Başkaya , Ilhyock Shim , Philip Turner
Using quarterly data on macroprudential policy (MaPP) measures and capital flow management measures (CFMs) in 39 economies over 2000–2020, we analyse how domestic credit and cross-border capital flows respond to such measures. We distinguish price- and quantity-based MaPP measures and CFMs, and examine if the level of financial development matters in explaining policy effectiveness. Tightening MaPP measures significantly reduce household credit when the level of financial development is relatively low, and this is driven more by price-based MaPP measures. Also, price- and quantity-based CFMs slow down bank inflows with the former effective at relatively low levels of financial development and the latter at relatively high levels. Finally, we present evidence on leakages associated with quantity-based measures. Tightening quantity-based CFMs increases offshore bond issuance when the level of financial development is relatively low, while tightening quantity-based MaPP measures increase bank and bond inflows when financial development is relatively high.
利用2000-2020年39个经济体宏观审慎政策(MaPP)措施和资本流动管理措施(cfm)的季度数据,我们分析了国内信贷和跨境资本流动对这些措施的反应。我们区分了基于价格和数量的MaPP措施和cfm,并研究了金融发展水平在解释政策有效性方面是否重要。当金融发展水平相对较低时,收紧MaPP措施会显著减少家庭信贷,这更多地是由基于价格的MaPP措施推动的。此外,基于价格和数量的cfm减缓了银行流入,前者在相对较低的金融发展水平上有效,后者在相对较高的金融发展水平上有效。最后,我们提出了与基于数量的措施相关的泄漏的证据。当金融发展水平相对较低时,收紧基于数量的cfm措施增加了离岸债券发行,而当金融发展水平相对较高时,收紧基于数量的MaPP措施增加了银行和债券流入。
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引用次数: 0
A stochastic model for predicting the response time of green vs brown stocks to climate change news risk 预测绿色和棕色树木对气候变化新闻风险响应时间的随机模型
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107507
Hany Fahmy
We model the dynamic evolution of the attention process over the duration of climate change news events as a Brownian motion with an absorbing barrier, where attention to the news event ceases. In this framework, the duration of the underlying news event is a random variable whose probability distribution is the Inverse Gaussian (IG). We show that the IG distribution of news duration can be used to predict the response time of asset prices to climate news risk. We test the empirical validity of our model by constructing two novel climate news duration data sets: a daily duration and an hour-by-hour intra-news duration. At the daily frequency, our model predicts the response time of green versus brown firms’ stock prices to climate news risk. We demonstrate how this response time can enhance the precision of conventional risk management statistics, e.g., Value at Risk and expected shortfall, and in consequence improves the efficiency of managing firms’ exposures to such risk. At the high frequency, we extend the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model and show that, in an IG-ACD-GARCH framework, climate change news arrivals contribute to the volatility of green (but not brown) firms’ returns. This finding is attributed to public and investors’ concerns about climate change or to their belief that climate transition policies are ineffective in combating climate change.
我们将气候变化新闻事件持续期间注意力过程的动态演变建模为具有吸收屏障的布朗运动,在那里对新闻事件的注意力停止。在这个框架中,潜在新闻事件的持续时间是一个随机变量,其概率分布是逆高斯分布(IG)。我们证明了新闻持续时间的IG分布可以用来预测资产价格对气候新闻风险的响应时间。我们通过构建两个新的气候新闻持续时间数据集来检验我们模型的经验有效性:每日持续时间和每小时的新闻持续时间。在每日频率下,我们的模型预测绿色和棕色公司的股票价格对气候新闻风险的响应时间。我们展示了这种响应时间如何提高传统风险管理统计的准确性,例如,风险价值和预期不足,从而提高管理公司暴露于此类风险的效率。在高频率下,我们扩展了自回归条件持续时间(ACD)模型,并表明,在IG-ACD-GARCH框架中,气候变化新闻的到来有助于绿色(而不是棕色)公司回报的波动性。这一发现归因于公众和投资者对气候变化的担忧,或者他们认为气候转型政策在应对气候变化方面是无效的。
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引用次数: 0
Bank board structure and loan syndication 银行董事会结构和银团贷款
IF 3.6 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107511
Lindsay Baran , Steven A. Dennis , Maneesh K. Shukla
We study the impact of bank board structure as a signaling mechanism in loan syndication. We find that the quality of the lead arranger’s board, and specifically the monitoring quality of the board, has a positive effect on the ability to syndicate a loan. The impact of board quality is separate and distinct from lead arranger reputation. Board monitoring quality plays a more important role when the borrower and lead arranger have no prior relationship, after the bankruptcy of an existing borrower, and during the financial crisis. We posit that one channel for our findings is through board oversight of the CEO, and we provide evidence that CEO quality partially mediates the relationship between board quality and loan syndication. Overall, we conclude the quality of the lead arranger’s board, as a separate and distinct effect to reputation, serves as a credible signal to participant banks, mitigating moral hazard and adverse selection concerns.
我们研究了银行董事会结构作为银团贷款信号机制的影响。我们发现,牵头安排人董事会的质量,特别是董事会的监督质量,对银团贷款的能力有积极影响。董事会质量的影响与首席编曲人的声誉是分开和不同的。当借款人和牵头安排人没有任何先前关系时,在现有借款人破产后,以及在金融危机期间,董事会监督质量发挥更重要的作用。我们假设我们的发现的一个渠道是通过董事会对CEO的监督,我们提供的证据表明,CEO质量部分中介董事会质量和银团贷款之间的关系。总体而言,我们得出结论,作为对声誉的独立而独特的影响,牵头行董事会的质量可以向参与银行发出可信的信号,减轻道德风险和逆向选择担忧。
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引用次数: 0
Motivated beliefs about stock returns 对股票收益的动机信念
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107510
Carlos Cueva , Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe
Systematic biases in return expectations can distort stock prices and lead to inefficient capital allocation. In this paper, we report experimental evidence that buying a stock induces optimistically biased expectations when its price drops below the purchase price. We find this effect across two experimental settings, a controlled laboratory experiment and a six-week-long online experiment involving real equities traded in the stock market in real time. Our results are consistent with the idea that investors form “motivated beliefs” about stocks returns. In addition, motivated beliefs explain a substantial part of the reluctance to sell losing stocks, as in the well-known disposition effect.
回报预期的系统性偏差会扭曲股价,导致资本配置效率低下。在本文中,我们报告了实验证据,即当股票价格低于购买价格时,购买股票会产生乐观偏见预期。我们在两个实验设置中发现了这种效应,一个是受控的实验室实验,另一个是为期六周的在线实验,涉及股票市场上实时交易的真实股票。我们的结果与投资者对股票回报形成“动机信念”的观点是一致的。此外,动机信念在很大程度上解释了不愿出售亏损股票的原因,如众所周知的处置效应。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Banking & Finance
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