Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107583
Chung Mai , Harald Scheule
This paper develops time-varying repayment mortgage contract designs based on borrower income expectations and risk profiles over loan age. These contract designs differ between loans and are based on growing annuities. We benchmark these contracts to the traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contracts. The proposed contract innovations reduce illiquidity but increase leverage due to payment delays. The combined effects reduce the probability of default, systematic risk, and regulatory capital. Due to the risk reduction, lenders can increase the gross return on regulatory capital by 10 %, or alternatively, borrowers may benefit from credit spreads that are 17 basis points lower. Overall, our contracts enhance the resilience of mortgage markets.
{"title":"Time-varying repayment contracts for financial resilience in mortgage lending","authors":"Chung Mai , Harald Scheule","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107583","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107583","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper develops time-varying repayment mortgage contract designs based on borrower income expectations and risk profiles over loan age. These contract designs differ between loans and are based on growing annuities. We benchmark these contracts to the traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contracts. The proposed contract innovations reduce illiquidity but increase leverage due to payment delays. The combined effects reduce the probability of default, systematic risk, and regulatory capital. Due to the risk reduction, lenders can increase the gross return on regulatory capital by 10 %, or alternatively, borrowers may benefit from credit spreads that are 17 basis points lower. Overall, our contracts enhance the resilience of mortgage markets.</div><div>G01; G20; G21; C51; C55</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107583"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145419550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107584
Yu Liu , Peng Zhao , Xiaoxue Zhao
How does a booming housing market crowd out credit access of firms and distort resource allocation in the real economy? This paper relies on a housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy in Chinese cities as a natural experiment and shows that an exogenous reduction in housing demand and a halt on housing price growth significantly improved local firms’ access to credit and lowered their financial costs. In addition, because the credit relaxation particularly affected firms that were ex ante more constrained, the policy significantly reduced cross-firm capital misallocation within treated cities and positively affected industrial productivity. We estimate that the HPR policy overall led to a 2% improvement in the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial firms. We present empirical evidence to demonstrate that these real effects of a housing market decline can be rationalized by bank capital constraints and a significant crowding-out effect of households’ mortgage loans and credit to local governments, backed by local land sales revenue, on credit to firms.
{"title":"Housing booms and local capital misallocation","authors":"Yu Liu , Peng Zhao , Xiaoxue Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107584","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107584","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>How does a booming housing market crowd out credit access of firms and distort resource allocation in the real economy? This paper relies on a housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy in Chinese cities as a natural experiment and shows that an exogenous reduction in housing demand and a halt on housing price growth significantly improved local firms’ access to credit and lowered their financial costs. In addition, because the credit relaxation particularly affected firms that were ex ante more constrained, the policy significantly reduced cross-firm capital misallocation within treated cities and positively affected industrial productivity. We estimate that the HPR policy overall led to a 2% improvement in the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial firms. We present empirical evidence to demonstrate that these real effects of a housing market decline can be rationalized by bank capital constraints and a significant crowding-out effect of households’ mortgage loans and credit to local governments, backed by local land sales revenue, on credit to firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107584"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107595
Nils Lohmeier, Christoph Schneider
A familiarity bias of target shareholders allows bidders to opportunistically choose the payment method in mergers and acquisitions. We employ the Stambaugh, Yu and Yuan (2015) mispricing score to identify overvalued bidders, reconfirming that overvaluation is a central driver of the payment choice. Using an instrumental variable based on exogenous price pressure, we provide causal evidence for bidder opportunism. Further analyses show that target shareholders more familiar with the bidder are more likely to accept equity despite particularly adverse market reactions. Our results suggest that behavioral biases of shareholders contribute to the transmission of stock market inefficiencies to the market for corporate control.
{"title":"Bidder opportunism, familiarity, and the M&A payment choice","authors":"Nils Lohmeier, Christoph Schneider","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A familiarity bias of target shareholders allows bidders to opportunistically choose the payment method in mergers and acquisitions. We employ the Stambaugh, Yu and Yuan (2015) mispricing score to identify overvalued bidders, reconfirming that overvaluation is a central driver of the payment choice. Using an instrumental variable based on exogenous price pressure, we provide causal evidence for bidder opportunism. Further analyses show that target shareholders more familiar with the bidder are more likely to accept equity despite particularly adverse market reactions. Our results suggest that behavioral biases of shareholders contribute to the transmission of stock market inefficiencies to the market for corporate control.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107595"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145579405","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107580
Eunpyo Hong , Badrinath Kottimukkalur , Joonki Noh
We explore how the uncertain text in 10-K/Qs, a form of soft information, affects the stock price reactions to subsequent earnings releases that contain hard and quantitative information. We find that more uncertain language in 10-K/Qs leads to stronger immediate price reactions to earnings surprises but weaker post-earnings announcement drifts. Firms with higher text uncertainty in 10-K/Qs also attract greater institutional attention and more intense trading activity by sophisticated investors around earnings announcements. These findings suggest that firms using more uncertain language in regulatory filings have higher fundamental uncertainty and attract more attention from attention-constrained investors.
{"title":"Uncertain Text and Price Reactions to Earnings Releases","authors":"Eunpyo Hong , Badrinath Kottimukkalur , Joonki Noh","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We explore how the uncertain text in 10-K/Qs, a form of soft information, affects the stock price reactions to subsequent earnings releases that contain hard and quantitative information. We find that more uncertain language in 10-K/Qs leads to stronger immediate price reactions to earnings surprises but weaker post-earnings announcement drifts. Firms with higher text uncertainty in 10-K/Qs also attract greater institutional attention and more intense trading activity by sophisticated investors around earnings announcements. These findings suggest that firms using more uncertain language in regulatory filings have higher fundamental uncertainty and attract more attention from attention-constrained investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145468182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107568
Jacob Oded
Firms are commonly assumed to engage in repurchase programs in order to take advantage of mispricing and buy their shares when they are underpriced. However, recent empirical evidence indicates these programs are often executed when shares are overpriced. We characterize the situations in which repurchase of overpriced shares is likely to occur and show it can actually be value enhancing. In the model, informed insiders trade-off private benefits from free cash waste against common benefits from waste prevention. Since private benefits from waste are negatively related to governance quality, our findings highlight the importance of having good governance in place when boards approve repurchase programs.
{"title":"Why do firms repurchase their shares when they are overpriced?","authors":"Jacob Oded","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107568","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107568","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Firms are commonly assumed to engage in repurchase programs in order to take advantage of mispricing and buy their shares when they are underpriced. However, recent empirical evidence indicates these programs are often executed when shares are overpriced. We characterize the situations in which repurchase of overpriced shares is likely to occur and show it can actually be value enhancing. In the model, informed insiders trade-off private benefits from free cash waste against common benefits from waste prevention. Since private benefits from waste are negatively related to governance quality, our findings highlight the importance of having good governance in place when boards approve repurchase programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107568"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145371139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107585
Jonathan Chiu , Thorsten V. Koeppl
Why do BigTech platforms introduce payment services? And do their users benefit? Digital platforms often run business models where activities on the platform generate data that can be monetized off the platform. The platform then trades off the value of such data against the cost that arises from subsidizing activities in order to compensate users for their loss of privacy. The way data interact with payments determines whether payments are introduced and how the introduction impacts users. When data help to provide better payments (data-driven payments), platforms have too little incentives to introduce payments, even though users benefit. Introduction is more likely when payments also generate additional data (payment-driven data), but the adoption of better payments may then hurt users.
{"title":"PayTech on BigTech platforms","authors":"Jonathan Chiu , Thorsten V. Koeppl","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107585","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107585","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why do BigTech platforms introduce payment services? And do their users benefit? Digital platforms often run business models where activities on the platform generate data that can be monetized off the platform. The platform then trades off the value of such data against the cost that arises from subsidizing activities in order to compensate users for their loss of privacy. The way data interact with payments determines whether payments are introduced and how the introduction impacts users. When data help to provide better payments (data-driven payments), platforms have too little incentives to introduce payments, even though users benefit. Introduction is more likely when payments also generate additional data (payment-driven data), but the adoption of better payments may then hurt users.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107585"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145520294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-10-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107581
Kadir Atalay , Hanlin Lou , Robert Slonim
This paper studies a novel method to help people make better decisions by providing information immediately after customers make a costly transaction. We examine an intervention by a major financial institution in Australia, where credit card customers in a treatment group received a text message immediately after each high-cost transaction. The notification informed them that the transaction resulted in an additional fee and that a higher interest rate would apply immediately. This immediate ex-post information nudge reduces the number of subsequent high-cost transactions by 6 % and increases the likelihood of making a repayment on the day they were nudged by 5 %. This evidence is consistent with the ex-post information campaign increasing awareness among customers about the fees and higher interest rate which subsequently caused them to adjust their credit card usage to save money. More generally, this evidence provides a novel method to help people make better decisions by nudging immediately after rather than before an event.
{"title":"Nudging a second after","authors":"Kadir Atalay , Hanlin Lou , Robert Slonim","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107581","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107581","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies a novel method to help people make better decisions by providing information immediately after customers make a costly transaction. We examine an intervention by a major financial institution in Australia, where credit card customers in a treatment group received a text message immediately after each high-cost transaction. The notification informed them that the transaction resulted in an additional fee and that a higher interest rate would apply immediately. This immediate ex-post information nudge reduces the number of subsequent high-cost transactions by 6 % and increases the likelihood of making a repayment on the day they were nudged by 5 %. This evidence is consistent with the ex-post information campaign increasing awareness among customers about the fees and higher interest rate which subsequently caused them to adjust their credit card usage to save money. More generally, this evidence provides a novel method to help people make better decisions by nudging immediately after rather than before an event.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107581"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145468184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107596
Heiko Jacobs, Alexander Lauber
Recent literature shows that investors’ revealed beliefs often point to the use of comparatively simple valuation approaches or heuristics rather than complex models with several dimensions of systematic risk to price assets. Against this background, we comprehensively analyze how different stock-level performance measures affect media tone in firm-specific articles in several major markets. While the realized risk-adjusted abnormal returns of all tested models are positively related to media sentiment, the CAPM-adjusted return as well as the raw stock return have the strongest impact in direct comparisons. Overall, the results are most consistent with the conjecture that, on average, reporting tends to be influenced more by straightforward valuation approaches than by risk adjustments derived from multi-factor asset pricing models. Further largely supportive evidence comes from return decompositions, subsample tests, reporting about mutual funds as well as from survey results.
{"title":"Media reporting and asset pricing models","authors":"Heiko Jacobs, Alexander Lauber","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent literature shows that investors’ revealed beliefs often point to the use of comparatively simple valuation approaches or heuristics rather than complex models with several dimensions of systematic risk to price assets. Against this background, we comprehensively analyze how different stock-level performance measures affect media tone in firm-specific articles in several major markets. While the realized risk-adjusted abnormal returns of all tested models are positively related to media sentiment, the CAPM-adjusted return as well as the raw stock return have the strongest impact in direct comparisons. Overall, the results are most consistent with the conjecture that, on average, reporting tends to be influenced more by straightforward valuation approaches than by risk adjustments derived from multi-factor asset pricing models. Further largely supportive evidence comes from return decompositions, subsample tests, reporting about mutual funds as well as from survey results.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107596"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623516","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-01Epub Date: 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107592
Yuecheng Jia , Betty Simkins , Shu Yan , Hongyu Zhang , Jiangyu Zhao
This paper investigates whether investors’ anchoring bias affects cryptocurrency returns. We use the nearness to the 52-week high () as a proxy for anchoring behavior and document a significant positive association between and subsequent cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns. The relationship remains robust after controlling for standard return predictors and employing alternative econometric specifications. A value-weighted spread portfolio, cANCHOR, which goes long on cryptocurrencies with high and short on those with low , generates an average return of around 130 basis points per week. Additional analyses help rule out competing explanations based on risk exposure or market frictions. Augmenting the benchmark three-factor model of Liu, Tsyvinski, and Wu (2019) with our cANCHOR factor yields a novel four-factor model that better explains cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns and outperforms alternative approaches proposed in the literature.
{"title":"Psychological anchoring effect and cross section of cryptocurrency returns","authors":"Yuecheng Jia , Betty Simkins , Shu Yan , Hongyu Zhang , Jiangyu Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107592","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107592","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether investors’ anchoring bias affects cryptocurrency returns. We use the nearness to the 52-week high (<span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi><msub><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>52</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>) as a proxy for anchoring behavior and document a significant positive association between <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi><msub><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>52</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and subsequent cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns. The relationship remains robust after controlling for standard return predictors and employing alternative econometric specifications. A value-weighted spread portfolio, cANCHOR, which goes long on cryptocurrencies with high <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi><msub><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>52</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span> and short on those with low <span><math><mrow><mi>N</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>a</mi><mi>r</mi><mi>n</mi><mi>e</mi><mi>s</mi><msub><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>52</mn></mrow></msub></mrow></math></span>, generates an average return of around 130 basis points per week. Additional analyses help rule out competing explanations based on risk exposure or market frictions. Augmenting the benchmark three-factor model of Liu, Tsyvinski, and Wu (2019) with our cANCHOR factor yields a novel four-factor model that better explains cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns and outperforms alternative approaches proposed in the literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"182 ","pages":"Article 107592"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107560
Tingjin Yan , Jie Yin , Ling Wang , Hoi Ying Wong
We propose a novel rough and smooth stochastic volatility model by combining the rough Heston (rough ) and smooth models through a convex specification. This parsimonious two-factor model admits semi-closed-form pricing formulas for equity and volatility index (VIX) derivatives, while capturing key stylized facts documented in empirical studies. The model flexibly generates elasticity of variance estimates consistent with empirical findings from equity markets and produces realistic variance distributions. Although the rough component carries a small weight, our numerical experiments confirm a degree of roughness comparable with that obtained with the rough Heston model. Empirical analysis using S&P 500 and VIX option data shows that the model outperforms benchmark specifications both in- and out-of-sample. We further provide insights into how rough volatility modeling influences the estimation of risk-neutral return moments and variance risk premia.
{"title":"4/2 rough and smooth","authors":"Tingjin Yan , Jie Yin , Ling Wang , Hoi Ying Wong","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a novel <span><math><mrow><mn>4</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span> rough and smooth stochastic volatility model by combining the rough Heston (rough <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>) and smooth <span><math><mrow><mn>3</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span> models through a convex specification. This parsimonious two-factor model admits semi-closed-form pricing formulas for equity and volatility index (VIX) derivatives, while capturing key stylized facts documented in empirical studies. The model flexibly generates elasticity of variance estimates consistent with empirical findings from equity markets and produces realistic variance distributions. Although the rough <span><math><mrow><mn>1</mn><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span> component carries a small weight, our numerical experiments confirm a degree of roughness comparable with that obtained with the rough Heston model. Empirical analysis using S&P 500 and VIX option data shows that the model outperforms benchmark specifications both in- and out-of-sample. We further provide insights into how rough volatility modeling influences the estimation of risk-neutral return moments and variance risk premia.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"181 ","pages":"Article 107560"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145325861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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