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Predicting financial stability with TopicGPT: Insights from corporate and central bank communications 用主题gpt预测金融稳定:来自企业和央行沟通的见解
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107598
Christian Fieberg , Matthies Hesse , Gerrit Liedtke , Adam Zaremba
Can generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) help us predict financial stability? To address this question, we employ TopicGPT, a prompt-based framework for topic modeling powered by large language models. By analyzing over 238,000 corporate earnings calls and 4300 Federal Reserve speeches over the period from 2002 to 2023, we combine microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives to forecast key measures of financial stability. TopicGPT’s ability to generate interpretable and tailored topics improves predictions for systemic risk measures, such as the National Financial Conditions Index and a capital shortfall, outperforming traditional models, particularly for long-term horizons. The two data sources complement each other: earnings calls provide dynamic, firm-specific insights critical for short-term forecasts, while Fed speeches highlight systemic risks, offering a long-term perspective. Together, they identify critical themes – such as economic conditions, debt management, and the housing market – and enable real-time risk assessment.
生成式人工智能(GenAI)能否帮助我们预测金融稳定?为了解决这个问题,我们使用了TopicGPT,这是一个基于提示的主题建模框架,由大型语言模型提供支持。通过分析2002年至2023年期间超过238,000个公司财报电话会议和4300个美联储演讲,我们结合微观经济和宏观经济观点来预测金融稳定的关键指标。TopicGPT生成可解释和定制主题的能力提高了对系统性风险指标(如国家金融状况指数和资本短缺)的预测,优于传统模型,特别是在长期范围内。这两种数据来源相辅相成:财报电话会议提供了对短期预测至关重要的动态、特定于公司的见解,而美联储的讲话则强调了系统性风险,提供了长期前景。它们共同确定关键主题——如经济状况、债务管理和住房市场——并实现实时风险评估。
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引用次数: 0
New tests of the theory of storage and the theory of normal backwardation: Time and frequency dimensions 存储理论和正常现货溢价理论的新检验:时间和频率维度
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107611
Wenbin Cao , Xiaoman Duan , Scott Linn , Pierre Six
We expand the frequency domain asset pricing literature, traditionally focused on equities and bonds, to include the oil market. Our analysis extends to both the frequency and calendar time domains, offering new tests for the theories of storage and normal backwardation (hedging pressure). Our study highlights that the main relationships of both theories operate continuously in time at intermediate frequencies. Our analysis in the time–frequency domain enables us to refine extant conclusions regarding financialization in the oil market.
我们将传统上关注股票和债券的频域资产定价文献扩展到石油市场。我们的分析扩展到频率和日历时间域,为存储和正常现货溢价(对冲压力)理论提供了新的测试。我们的研究强调了两种理论的主要关系在中频上连续运行。我们在时频域的分析使我们能够完善有关石油市场金融化的现有结论。
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引用次数: 0
Rules of thumb and retirement accounts 经验法则和退休账户
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107619
Vanya Horneff , David Love , Raimond Maurer
We examine the welfare costs of using common rules of thumb for saving, investing, 401k contributions, and withdrawals in a realistic environment with taxes, Social Security, 401k plan details, and uncertainty in income, lifespan, and returns. We assess common heuristics such as allocating 100 minus age to stocks, contributing 6–10% of income to a 401k, and withdrawing only the required minimum distribution (RMD) in retirement. Target-date rules lead to moderate welfare losses, with one-time compensating variations ranging from $59–$2514 for 401k allocation and $66–$873 for other savings. Contribution rules cause smaller losses ($22–$772), reflecting the importance of the 401k matching incentives. Withdrawing only the RMD leads to substantial welfare losses, ranging between $1321–$9919 from the perspective of a 66-year-old. But a hybrid rule—taking the maximum of a fixed percentage and the RMD—generates welfare losses about half as large as those associated with the RMD rule. We also compare these rules to more clearly suboptimal behaviors, such as avoiding the stock market, delaying saving, or contributing below the matching threshold. In these cases, rules of thumb look far more attractive, often avoiding substantial welfare losses. Overall, we find mixed support for the effectiveness of rules of thumb. While the welfare losses associated with such rules are modest, there may be substantial benefits to more detailed financial planning.
我们在一个现实的环境中,通过税收、社会保障、401k计划细节以及收入、寿命和回报的不确定性,研究了使用普通经验法则进行储蓄、投资、401k缴费和取款的福利成本。我们评估了常见的启发式方法,例如将100减去年龄分配给股票,将收入的6-10%贡献给401k,并在退休时仅提取所需的最低分配(RMD)。目标日期规则导致适度的福利损失,401k分配的一次性补偿变化从59美元到2514美元不等,其他储蓄为66美元到873美元不等。缴费规则造成的损失较小(22 - 772美元),反映了401k匹配激励的重要性。只提取RMD会导致大量的福利损失,从66岁的人的角度来看,损失在1321美元至9919美元之间。但是混合规则——取固定百分比的最大值和RMD——产生的福利损失大约是RMD规则的一半。我们还将这些规则与更明显的次优行为进行比较,例如避免股票市场、延迟储蓄或低于匹配阈值的贡献。在这些情况下,经验法则看起来更有吸引力,通常可以避免实质性的福利损失。总的来说,我们发现经验法则的有效性得到了褒贬不一的支持。虽然与这些规则有关的福利损失不大,但更详细的财务规划可能会带来实质性的好处。
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引用次数: 0
Decentralized Finance risk transfer and smart contract-based insurance 去中心化金融风险转移和基于智能合约的保险
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107606
Felix Bekemeier , Fabian Schär , Hato Schmeiser
This paper presents a model in which risk-averse individuals can purchase insurance via traditional indemnity contracts or Decentralized Finance (DeFi) smart contract-based instruments. The model incorporates key features of DeFi insurance, including parametric payouts, basis risk arising from imperfect loss verification and pooled collateralization involving the risk of liquidity shortfalls. We characterize optimal insurance choices as a function of pricing, payout correlation and risk preferences. Numerical results show that DeFi insurance can complement or replace traditional coverage, improving welfare when basis and default risks are moderate or pricing advantages are substantial. The analysis reveals how DeFi-specific frictions shape insurance demand and provides insight into how DeFi instruments may shift market structure and expand the set of attainable risk transfer outcomes.
本文提出了一个模型,在这个模型中,厌恶风险的个人可以通过传统的赔偿合同或基于去中心化金融(DeFi)智能合约的工具购买保险。该模型结合了DeFi保险的关键特征,包括参数支付、因损失验证不完善而产生的基差风险以及涉及流动性不足风险的集中抵押。我们将最优保险选择描述为定价、支付相关性和风险偏好的函数。数值结果表明,当基本风险和违约风险适中或定价优势较大时,DeFi保险可以补充或取代传统保险,提高福利水平。该分析揭示了DeFi特定的摩擦如何影响保险需求,并提供了DeFi工具如何改变市场结构和扩大可实现的风险转移结果集的见解。
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引用次数: 0
The clan-based investment hypothesis in household stock investment 家庭股票投资中的宗族投资假说
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107620
Kebin Deng , Zhong Ding , Xu Liu
This paper proposes a clan-based investment hypothesis regarding household stock investment, specifically emphasizing the role of Confucian clan culture in deterring both the probability of stock investment participation and the stock investment ratio in China. Our findings reveal that households strongly influenced by Confucian clan culture are 17.6 % less likely to participate in stock investment and exhibit an 11.8 % lower ratio of stock investment to bank deposits, compared to other households. Moreover, we document that households dominated by Confucian clan culture are more likely to receive informal financial support for real estate investment, further reducing their participation in the stock market. These results suggest that clan-based investment opportunities play a significant role in discouraging household participation in stock investment.
本文提出了家庭股票投资的宗族投资假设,特别强调儒家宗族文化对中国股票投资参与概率和股票投资比例的抑制作用。我们的研究结果显示,受儒家家族文化强烈影响的家庭参与股票投资的可能性比其他家庭低17.6%,股票投资占银行存款的比例比其他家庭低11.8%。此外,我们发现以儒家家族文化为主导的家庭更有可能在房地产投资中获得非正式的金融支持,从而进一步减少了他们对股票市场的参与。这些结果表明,宗族投资机会在阻碍家庭参与股票投资方面发挥了重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Crowded spaces and anomalies 拥挤的空间和异常
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107579
Ludwig Chincarini , Renato Lazo-Paz , Fabio Moneta
This paper investigates the relation between crowded trades, those in which many investors hold the same stocks possibly exhausting their liquidity provision, and future stock returns on a set of well-known stock market anomalies. We find that anomaly risk-adjusted returns are primarily generated by the most (least) crowded stocks for the long-leg (short-leg) portfolio. Moreover, we find that our results remain significant after publication dates. We hypothesize that crowded equity positions in anomaly stocks increase institutional investors’ exposure to crash risk. Our findings are consistent with this hypothesis and suggest that crowding adds a new consideration to the limits of arbitrage.
本文研究了在一组众所周知的股票市场异常情况下,众多投资者持有同一只股票可能耗尽其流动性供应的拥挤交易与未来股票收益之间的关系。我们发现,风险调整后的异常收益主要是由长腿(短腿)投资组合中最(最少)拥挤的股票产生的。此外,我们发现我们的结果在发表日期之后仍然显着。我们假设在异常股票中拥挤的股票头寸增加了机构投资者对崩溃风险的暴露。我们的研究结果与这一假设一致,并表明拥挤增加了对套利限制的新考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Folklore narratives and IPO outcomes 民间传说叙述与IPO结果
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107578
Huu Nhan Duong , Abhinav Goyal , S. Ghon Rhee
Our primary contribution to the finance literature is the introduction of folklore narratives as a major factor in influencing corporate outcomes. Using the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing as the main focus, we demonstrate that folklore narratives depicting lower tolerance toward antisocial behavior are associated with lower IPO underpricing. The relation between folklore narratives and IPO pricing is independent of indicators of trust, religion, culture, societal preferences, or institutional democracy. This relation is weaker in countries with a more transparent information environment and following reforms that improve disclosure and corporate governance. Folklore narratives on punishment for antisocial behavior are also related to enhanced information disclosure, lower agency problems, better long-term performance for IPO firms, higher proceeds raised and free float, and overall IPO activity in the market. Collectively, we show that informal institutions, such as folklore narratives, exert a strong influence on IPO outcomes globally.
我们对金融文献的主要贡献是引入民间传说叙事作为影响公司成果的主要因素。以首次公开募股(IPO)的低定价为主要焦点,我们证明了民间传说中对反社会行为的容忍度较低与IPO低定价有关。民间传说与IPO定价之间的关系独立于信任、宗教、文化、社会偏好或制度民主等指标。在信息环境更加透明、信息披露和公司治理得到改善的国家,这种关系较弱。民间传说对反社会行为的惩罚也与信息披露的加强、代理问题的降低、IPO公司长期业绩的改善、募集资金和流通股的增加以及IPO市场的整体活跃度有关。总体而言,我们表明,民间传说叙事等非正式制度对全球IPO结果产生了强烈影响。
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引用次数: 0
Investor disagreement and state-dependent mispricing: New evidence on the analyst dispersion anomaly 投资者分歧和国家依赖的错误定价:关于分析师分散异常的新证据
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107577
Zhiwei Xu, Yinan Yang, Teng Zhang
This study provides strong evidence that the analyst dispersion anomaly (i.e., higher analyst forecast dispersion predicting lower future returns) exhibits a state-dependent pattern: the negative dispersion-return relation is evident only among stocks with high investor optimism but attenuates or even reverses among stocks with high investor pessimism. Reduced investor risk aversion and binding short-sale constraints amplify the anomaly under the condition of high investor optimism. These findings together align with Atmaz and Basak’s (2018) theory that disagreement combined with expectation biases causes mispricing. Alternative mechanisms, including managerial strategic disclosure, intertemporal hedging demand, credit risk, and analyst self-censorship,fail to subsume this conditional pattern. We also show that several other well-known measures of disagreement exhibit a similar state-dependent property. Overall, this study provides novel insights into the mechanisms driving the dispersion anomaly.
本研究提供了强有力的证据,表明分析师的分散度异常(即较高的分析师预测分散度预测较低的未来收益)呈现出一种状态依赖模式:负的分散度-收益关系仅在投资者高度乐观的股票中明显,而在投资者高度悲观的股票中减弱甚至逆转。在投资者高度乐观的情况下,投资者风险厌恶程度的降低和约束性卖空约束放大了这种异常。这些发现与Atmaz和Basak(2018)的理论一致,即分歧与预期偏差相结合会导致定价错误。其他机制,包括管理层战略披露、跨期对冲需求、信用风险和分析师自我审查,都不能包含这种条件模式。我们还表明,其他几个著名的分歧度量也表现出类似的状态依赖属性。总的来说,这项研究为驱动色散异常的机制提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Active fund management when ESG matters ESG重要时积极的基金管理
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107597
Doron Avramov , Si Cheng , Andrea Tarelli
This paper develops and tests an equilibrium model of active fund management with ESG considerations. Heterogeneous sustainability preferences lead fund managers to intensify information acquisition on assets across the ESG spectrum, broadening the scope of active management. This information channel enhances price informativeness, lowers discount rates, and increases portfolio deviation from benchmarks. The model predicts a negative and concave ESG-expected return relation, stronger for green assets and weaker for brown assets. Using data on U.S. mutual funds and stocks from 2007–2021, we find supporting evidence based on price informativeness and the implied cost of equity capital.
本文建立并检验了一个考虑ESG因素的主动基金管理均衡模型。异质性可持续性偏好导致基金经理加强对ESG资产的信息获取,扩大了主动管理的范围。这种信息渠道提高了价格的信息量,降低了贴现率,并增加了投资组合与基准的偏差。该模型预测了esg -预期收益的负凹关系,绿色资产的esg -预期收益较强,棕色资产的esg -预期收益较弱。利用2007-2021年美国共同基金和股票的数据,我们发现了基于价格信息性和隐含权益资本成本的支持证据。
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct and financing policies: A precautionary tale 以利益相关者为中心的企业不当行为和融资政策:一个预防性的故事
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2026-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107582
Najah Attig , Sadok El Ghoul , Ashrafee Hossain
We investigate how stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct (CM) influences firms’ financing policies. CM is associated with higher cash holdings and lower dividend payouts and debt financing. These effects are more pronounced in firms with stronger governance. We further show that higher cash holdings in CM firms are associated with greater firm value and a lower implied cost of capital. Firms that replace their CEOs following CM adopt more conservative financing policies. Taken together, our evidence supports the precautionary motive for cash holdings, indicating that such reserves are unlikely to result from agency conflicts or increased managerial discretion in CM firms.
我们研究了以利益相关者为中心的企业不当行为(CM)如何影响企业的融资政策。CM与较高的现金持有量和较低的股息支付和债务融资有关。这些影响在治理更强的公司中更为明显。我们进一步表明,资本管理公司中较高的现金持有量与较高的公司价值和较低的隐含资本成本相关。在CM制度下更换ceo的公司采用更为保守的融资政策。综上所述,我们的证据支持现金持有的预防性动机,表明这种储备不太可能源于代理冲突或CM公司管理自由裁量权的增加。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Banking & Finance
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