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Bidder opportunism, familiarity, and the M&A payment choice 竞标者机会主义、熟悉度和并购支付选择
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107595
Nils Lohmeier, Christoph Schneider
A familiarity bias of target shareholders allows bidders to opportunistically choose the payment method in mergers and acquisitions. We employ the Stambaugh, Yu and Yuan (2015) mispricing score to identify overvalued bidders, reconfirming that overvaluation is a central driver of the payment choice. Using an instrumental variable based on exogenous price pressure, we provide causal evidence for bidder opportunism. Further analyses show that target shareholders more familiar with the bidder are more likely to accept equity despite particularly adverse market reactions. Our results suggest that behavioral biases of shareholders contribute to the transmission of stock market inefficiencies to the market for corporate control.
目标股东的熟悉偏向使得竞标者在并购中机会主义地选择支付方式。我们采用Stambaugh, Yu和Yuan(2015)的错误定价评分来识别被高估的投标人,再次确认高估是支付选择的核心驱动因素。使用基于外生价格压力的工具变量,我们提供了投标人机会主义的因果证据。进一步的分析表明,尽管市场反应特别不利,但与竞标者更熟悉的目标股东更有可能接受股权。我们的研究结果表明,股东的行为偏差有助于将股票市场的低效率传导到公司控制权市场。
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引用次数: 0
Psychological anchoring effect and cross section of cryptocurrency returns 心理锚定效应与加密货币收益的横截面
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107592
Yuecheng Jia , Betty Simkins , Shu Yan , Hongyu Zhang , Jiangyu Zhao
This paper investigates whether investors’ anchoring bias affects cryptocurrency returns. We use the nearness to the 52-week high (Nearness52) as a proxy for anchoring behavior and document a significant positive association between Nearness52 and subsequent cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns. The relationship remains robust after controlling for standard return predictors and employing alternative econometric specifications. A value-weighted spread portfolio, cANCHOR, which goes long on cryptocurrencies with high Nearness52 and short on those with low Nearness52, generates an average return of around 130 basis points per week. Additional analyses help rule out competing explanations based on risk exposure or market frictions. Augmenting the benchmark three-factor model of Liu, Tsyvinski, and Wu (2019) with our cANCHOR factor yields a novel four-factor model that better explains cross-sectional cryptocurrency returns and outperforms alternative approaches proposed in the literature.
本文调查了投资者的锚定偏见是否会影响加密货币的回报。我们使用接近52周高点(Nearness52)作为锚定行为的代理,并记录了Nearness52与随后的横断面加密货币回报之间的显著正相关。在控制标准收益预测因子和采用替代计量经济规范后,关系仍然稳健。cANCHOR是一个价值加权价差投资组合,它做多接近度52高的加密货币,做空接近度52低的加密货币,每周的平均回报率约为130个基点。额外的分析有助于排除基于风险敞口或市场摩擦的相互矛盾的解释。用cANCHOR因子增强Liu, Tsyvinski和Wu(2019)的基准三因素模型,可以产生一个新的四因素模型,更好地解释横截面加密货币回报,并且优于文献中提出的替代方法。
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引用次数: 0
PayTech on BigTech platforms PayTech在BigTech平台上
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107585
Jonathan Chiu , Thorsten V. Koeppl
Why do BigTech platforms introduce payment services? And do their users benefit? Digital platforms often run business models where activities on the platform generate data that can be monetized off the platform. The platform then trades off the value of such data against the cost that arises from subsidizing activities in order to compensate users for their loss of privacy. The way data interact with payments determines whether payments are introduced and how the introduction impacts users. When data help to provide better payments (data-driven payments), platforms have too little incentives to introduce payments, even though users benefit. Introduction is more likely when payments also generate additional data (payment-driven data), but the adoption of better payments may then hurt users.
为什么大科技平台会引入支付服务?他们的用户从中受益了吗?数字平台通常运行的商业模式是,平台上的活动产生的数据可以在平台外货币化。然后,该平台将这些数据的价值与补贴活动所产生的成本进行权衡,以补偿用户失去的隐私。数据与支付互动的方式决定了支付是否被引入,以及这种引入如何影响用户。当数据有助于提供更好的支付(数据驱动的支付)时,即使用户受益,平台也没有太多动力来引入支付。当支付也产生额外的数据(付费驱动的数据)时,引入更有可能,但采用更好的支付方式可能会伤害用户。
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引用次数: 0
Housing booms and local capital misallocation 房地产繁荣和地方资本配置不当
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107584
Yu Liu , Peng Zhao , Xiaoxue Zhao
How does a booming housing market crowd out credit access of firms and distort resource allocation in the real economy? This paper relies on a housing purchase restriction (HPR) policy in Chinese cities as a natural experiment and shows that an exogenous reduction in housing demand and a halt on housing price growth significantly improved local firms’ access to credit and lowered their financial costs. In addition, because the credit relaxation particularly affected firms that were ex ante more constrained, the policy significantly reduced cross-firm capital misallocation within treated cities and positively affected industrial productivity. We estimate that the HPR policy overall led to a 2% improvement in the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chinese industrial firms. We present empirical evidence to demonstrate that these real effects of a housing market decline can be rationalized by bank capital constraints and a significant crowding-out effect of households’ mortgage loans and credit to local governments, backed by local land sales revenue, on credit to firms.
繁荣的房地产市场是如何排挤企业的信贷渠道并扭曲实体经济中的资源配置的?本文以中国城市的住房限购政策作为自然实验,表明外生住房需求的减少和房价增长的停止显著改善了当地企业获得信贷的机会,降低了他们的财务成本。此外,由于信贷放松特别影响了先前受到更多约束的企业,该政策显著减少了受影响城市内企业间资本错配,并对工业生产率产生了积极影响。我们估计,HPR政策总体上使中国工业企业的全要素生产率(TFP)提高了2%。我们提出的经验证据表明,住房市场下滑的这些实际影响可以通过银行资本约束和家庭抵押贷款和地方政府信贷(以地方土地销售收入为支持)对企业信贷的显著挤出效应来合理化。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertain Text and Price Reactions to Earnings Releases 不确定的文本和价格对收益发布的反应
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107580
Eunpyo Hong , Badrinath Kottimukkalur , Joonki Noh
We explore how the uncertain text in 10-K/Qs, a form of soft information, affects the stock price reactions to subsequent earnings releases that contain hard and quantitative information. We find that more uncertain language in 10-K/Qs leads to stronger immediate price reactions to earnings surprises but weaker post-earnings announcement drifts. Firms with higher text uncertainty in 10-K/Qs also attract greater institutional attention and more intense trading activity by sophisticated investors around earnings announcements. These findings suggest that firms using more uncertain language in regulatory filings have higher fundamental uncertainty and attract more attention from attention-constrained investors.
我们探讨了10-K/ q中的不确定文本(软信息的一种形式)如何影响股票价格对包含硬信息和定量信息的后续收益发布的反应。我们发现,10-K/ q中更多不确定的语言导致对收益意外的直接价格反应更强,但收益公告后的波动更弱。在10-K/ q中文本不确定性较高的公司也吸引了更多的机构关注,并在收益公告周围吸引了经验丰富的投资者更激烈的交易活动。这些发现表明,在监管文件中使用更多不确定语言的公司具有更高的基本不确定性,并吸引更多注意力有限的投资者的关注。
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引用次数: 0
Crowded spaces and anomalies 拥挤的空间和异常
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107579
Ludwig Chincarini , Renato Lazo-Paz , Fabio Moneta
This paper investigates the relation between crowded trades, those in which many investors hold the same stocks possibly exhausting their liquidity provision, and future stock returns on a set of well-known stock market anomalies. We find that anomaly risk-adjusted returns are primarily generated by the most (least) crowded stocks for the long-leg (short-leg) portfolio. Moreover, we find that our results remain significant after publication dates. We hypothesize that crowded equity positions in anomaly stocks increase institutional investors’ exposure to crash risk. Our findings are consistent with this hypothesis and suggest that crowding adds a new consideration to the limits of arbitrage.
本文研究了在一组众所周知的股票市场异常情况下,众多投资者持有同一只股票可能耗尽其流动性供应的拥挤交易与未来股票收益之间的关系。我们发现,风险调整后的异常收益主要是由长腿(短腿)投资组合中最(最少)拥挤的股票产生的。此外,我们发现我们的结果在发表日期之后仍然显着。我们假设在异常股票中拥挤的股票头寸增加了机构投资者对崩溃风险的暴露。我们的研究结果与这一假设一致,并表明拥挤增加了对套利限制的新考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Time-varying repayment contracts for financial resilience in mortgage lending 抵押贷款金融弹性的时变还款合同
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107583
Chung Mai , Harald Scheule
This paper develops time-varying repayment mortgage contract designs based on borrower income expectations and risk profiles over loan age. These contract designs differ between loans and are based on growing annuities. We benchmark these contracts to the traditional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contracts. The proposed contract innovations reduce illiquidity but increase leverage due to payment delays. The combined effects reduce the probability of default, systematic risk, and regulatory capital. Due to the risk reduction, lenders can increase the gross return on regulatory capital by 10 %, or alternatively, borrowers may benefit from credit spreads that are 17 basis points lower. Overall, our contracts enhance the resilience of mortgage markets.
G01; G20; G21; C51; C55
本文基于借款人的收入预期和贷款年龄的风险特征,开发了时变还款抵押合同设计。这些合同设计因贷款而异,并基于不断增长的年金。我们以传统的30年期固定利率抵押贷款合同为基准。拟议的合同创新减少了流动性不足,但增加了由于付款延迟造成的杠杆。综合效应降低了违约概率、系统性风险和监管资本。由于风险降低,贷款人可以将监管资本的总回报率提高10%,或者,借款人可以从信贷息差降低17个基点中受益。总体而言,我们的合同增强了抵押贷款市场的弹性。20国集团(G20);G21;C51单片机;C55
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引用次数: 0
Stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct and financing policies: A precautionary tale 以利益相关者为中心的企业不当行为和融资政策:一个预防性的故事
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107582
Najah Attig , Sadok El Ghoul , Ashrafee Hossain
We investigate how stakeholder-centric corporate misconduct (CM) influences firms’ financing policies. CM is associated with higher cash holdings and lower dividend payouts and debt financing. These effects are more pronounced in firms with stronger governance. We further show that higher cash holdings in CM firms are associated with greater firm value and a lower implied cost of capital. Firms that replace their CEOs following CM adopt more conservative financing policies. Taken together, our evidence supports the precautionary motive for cash holdings, indicating that such reserves are unlikely to result from agency conflicts or increased managerial discretion in CM firms.
我们研究了以利益相关者为中心的企业不当行为(CM)如何影响企业的融资政策。CM与较高的现金持有量和较低的股息支付和债务融资有关。这些影响在治理更强的公司中更为明显。我们进一步表明,资本管理公司中较高的现金持有量与较高的公司价值和较低的隐含资本成本相关。在CM制度下更换ceo的公司采用更为保守的融资政策。综上所述,我们的证据支持现金持有的预防性动机,表明这种储备不太可能源于代理冲突或CM公司管理自由裁量权的增加。
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引用次数: 0
Nudging a second after 一秒钟后轻推
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107581
Kadir Atalay , Hanlin Lou , Robert Slonim
This paper studies a novel method to help people make better decisions by providing information immediately after customers make a costly transaction. We examine an intervention by a major financial institution in Australia, where credit card customers in a treatment group received a text message immediately after each high-cost transaction. The notification informed them that the transaction resulted in an additional fee and that a higher interest rate would apply immediately. This immediate ex-post information nudge reduces the number of subsequent high-cost transactions by 6 % and increases the likelihood of making a repayment on the day they were nudged by 5 %. This evidence is consistent with the ex-post information campaign increasing awareness among customers about the fees and higher interest rate which subsequently caused them to adjust their credit card usage to save money. More generally, this evidence provides a novel method to help people make better decisions by nudging immediately after rather than before an event.
本文研究了一种新颖的方法,通过在客户进行昂贵的交易后立即提供信息来帮助人们做出更好的决策。我们研究了澳大利亚一家主要金融机构的干预措施,其中治疗组的信用卡客户在每次高成本交易后立即收到一条短信。通知告诉他们,这笔交易会产生额外的费用,并且会立即适用更高的利率。这种即时的事后信息推动使随后的高成本交易数量减少了6%,并使他们在被推动的当天还款的可能性增加了5%。这一证据与事后宣传活动相一致,该活动提高了客户对费用和更高利率的认识,随后导致他们调整信用卡使用以节省资金。更一般地说,这一证据提供了一种新的方法,通过在事件发生后立即推动而不是在事件发生前推动,帮助人们做出更好的决定。
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引用次数: 0
Folklore narratives and IPO outcomes 民间传说叙述与IPO结果
IF 3.8 2区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107578
Huu Nhan Duong , Abhinav Goyal , S. Ghon Rhee
Our primary contribution to the finance literature is the introduction of folklore narratives as a major factor in influencing corporate outcomes. Using the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing as the main focus, we demonstrate that folklore narratives depicting lower tolerance toward antisocial behavior are associated with lower IPO underpricing. The relation between folklore narratives and IPO pricing is independent of indicators of trust, religion, culture, societal preferences, or institutional democracy. This relation is weaker in countries with a more transparent information environment and following reforms that improve disclosure and corporate governance. Folklore narratives on punishment for antisocial behavior are also related to enhanced information disclosure, lower agency problems, better long-term performance for IPO firms, higher proceeds raised and free float, and overall IPO activity in the market. Collectively, we show that informal institutions, such as folklore narratives, exert a strong influence on IPO outcomes globally.
我们对金融文献的主要贡献是引入民间传说叙事作为影响公司成果的主要因素。以首次公开募股(IPO)的低定价为主要焦点,我们证明了民间传说中对反社会行为的容忍度较低与IPO低定价有关。民间传说与IPO定价之间的关系独立于信任、宗教、文化、社会偏好或制度民主等指标。在信息环境更加透明、信息披露和公司治理得到改善的国家,这种关系较弱。民间传说对反社会行为的惩罚也与信息披露的加强、代理问题的降低、IPO公司长期业绩的改善、募集资金和流通股的增加以及IPO市场的整体活跃度有关。总体而言,我们表明,民间传说叙事等非正式制度对全球IPO结果产生了强烈影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Banking & Finance
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