Pub Date : 2022-10-06DOI: 10.3390/geohazards3040023
M. A. Bening, D. Sahara, Wahyu Triyoso, D. Kusumawati
As an earthquake is capable of causing significant losses, a strain buildup and release model following an earthquake is of importance for mitigation purposes. In this study, we aim to model strain buildup and release on a strike-slip fault which consists of elastic–brittle (upper crust) and elastic–viscous (lower crust and upper mantle) layers using a finite element model. The fault strength during strain buildup is controlled by the friction coefficient and cohesion, in addition to the viscoelastic parameter, as shown in the deformation model using Maxwell’s material. In the strain buildup model, we found that the differential stress on the elastic layer is larger than that on the viscoelastic layer and that the differential stress increases with the thickness of the elastic layer. When the viscoelastic layer is thinner, the deformation observed on the surface is larger. However, the differential of stress in the strain release model on the elastic layer is smaller than that on the viscoelastic layer, which shows the transfer stress from the lower crust and upper mantle to the upper crust. Using the knowledge gained by varying the thickness and frictional strength of the lithosphere, we discuss the seismicity pattern observed along the Great Sumatran Fault.
{"title":"Modeling the Impact of the Viscoelastic Layer Thickness and the Frictional Strength to the Lithosphere Deformation in a Strike-Slip Fault: Insight to the Seismicity Pattern along the Great Sumatran Fault","authors":"M. A. Bening, D. Sahara, Wahyu Triyoso, D. Kusumawati","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3040023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3040023","url":null,"abstract":"As an earthquake is capable of causing significant losses, a strain buildup and release model following an earthquake is of importance for mitigation purposes. In this study, we aim to model strain buildup and release on a strike-slip fault which consists of elastic–brittle (upper crust) and elastic–viscous (lower crust and upper mantle) layers using a finite element model. The fault strength during strain buildup is controlled by the friction coefficient and cohesion, in addition to the viscoelastic parameter, as shown in the deformation model using Maxwell’s material. In the strain buildup model, we found that the differential stress on the elastic layer is larger than that on the viscoelastic layer and that the differential stress increases with the thickness of the elastic layer. When the viscoelastic layer is thinner, the deformation observed on the surface is larger. However, the differential of stress in the strain release model on the elastic layer is smaller than that on the viscoelastic layer, which shows the transfer stress from the lower crust and upper mantle to the upper crust. Using the knowledge gained by varying the thickness and frictional strength of the lithosphere, we discuss the seismicity pattern observed along the Great Sumatran Fault.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81040554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-10-02DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2144636
M. Ramakrishnan, Pramod Kumar Sharma, A. Roshan, A. Pisharady, Magesh Mari Raj, P. Chithira, A. Arul, L. Bishnoi
ABSTRACT This paper presents the methodology adopted, accident sequence analysis and salient results from the external flood probabilistic safety analysis exercise for Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. The major steps performed are the probabilistic hazard estimation, fragility computation, system reliability modelling and risk quantification. The hazard analysis has been performed for rainfall, storm surge and tsunami as typically associated with a coastal site, from which correlation function relating flood level to the annual exceedance frequency is estimated. The fragility analysis of different safety systems is estimated by considering submergence mode of failure using step fragility functions. The secondary effects of flood such as debris impact, load falling and flood-induced sodium fires are not considered. The human reliability analysis of manual operations necessary for plant safety is done for the control room as well as onsite actions. The challenges encountered during the analysis, salient results and uncertainties involved are presented with inferences. Abbreviations: AHX: air heat exchanger; CDF: core damage frequency; EFPSA: external flood probabilistic safety assessment; EL: elevation levels; EOP: emergency operation procedure; ET: event tree; FT: fault tree; HRA: human reliability analysis; IE: initiating events; NPP: nuclear power plant; OGDHRS: operation grade decay heat removal system; PFBR: prototype fast breeder reactor; POT: peak over threshold; PSA: probabilistic safety assessment; PTHA: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment; RY: reactor year; RCB: reactor containment building; RP: return period; SGDHRS: safety grade decay heat removal system; SSC: structures, systems and components
{"title":"Application of external flood probabilistic safety assessment methodology to Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor","authors":"M. Ramakrishnan, Pramod Kumar Sharma, A. Roshan, A. Pisharady, Magesh Mari Raj, P. Chithira, A. Arul, L. Bishnoi","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2144636","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2144636","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper presents the methodology adopted, accident sequence analysis and salient results from the external flood probabilistic safety analysis exercise for Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. The major steps performed are the probabilistic hazard estimation, fragility computation, system reliability modelling and risk quantification. The hazard analysis has been performed for rainfall, storm surge and tsunami as typically associated with a coastal site, from which correlation function relating flood level to the annual exceedance frequency is estimated. The fragility analysis of different safety systems is estimated by considering submergence mode of failure using step fragility functions. The secondary effects of flood such as debris impact, load falling and flood-induced sodium fires are not considered. The human reliability analysis of manual operations necessary for plant safety is done for the control room as well as onsite actions. The challenges encountered during the analysis, salient results and uncertainties involved are presented with inferences. Abbreviations: AHX: air heat exchanger; CDF: core damage frequency; EFPSA: external flood probabilistic safety assessment; EL: elevation levels; EOP: emergency operation procedure; ET: event tree; FT: fault tree; HRA: human reliability analysis; IE: initiating events; NPP: nuclear power plant; OGDHRS: operation grade decay heat removal system; PFBR: prototype fast breeder reactor; POT: peak over threshold; PSA: probabilistic safety assessment; PTHA: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment; RY: reactor year; RCB: reactor containment building; RP: return period; SGDHRS: safety grade decay heat removal system; SSC: structures, systems and components","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"59936758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-12DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2119256
T. Takabatake, Taiga Kojima
ABSTRACT The present study aims to clarify the impact of future sea level rise (SLR) on the anticipated Nankai–Tonankai earthquake tsunami, using Osaka, Japan as the study area. A total of 110 simulations were performed, incorporating 11 tsunami source models, five sea levels and the presence or absence of coastal defences. The simulated results indicated that while maximum nearshore tsunami heights would increase by almost the same magnitude as the rising sea level, changes in the maximum inundation depth, depth-velocity product and momentum flux over land did not reveal simple relationships to sea levels. In addition, if Osaka’s seawalls immediately failed due to the ground shaking transmitted by the earthquake, it was estimated that around 38,000 buildings and 58,000 people would be affected by the tsunami at present (for SLR +0 m), rising to around 120,000 buildings and 150,000 people in the future. In contrast, if they survived the ground shaking, the number of affected buildings and people were shown to be significantly lower, with 7,000 buildings and 18,000 people for SLR +1.0 m. It is thus essential for Osaka to maximise the resilience of the current coastal defence system and property maintain them into the near future.
{"title":"Impact of rising sea levels on future Nankai–Tonankai earthquake tsunamis: a case study of Osaka, Japan","authors":"T. Takabatake, Taiga Kojima","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2119256","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2119256","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The present study aims to clarify the impact of future sea level rise (SLR) on the anticipated Nankai–Tonankai earthquake tsunami, using Osaka, Japan as the study area. A total of 110 simulations were performed, incorporating 11 tsunami source models, five sea levels and the presence or absence of coastal defences. The simulated results indicated that while maximum nearshore tsunami heights would increase by almost the same magnitude as the rising sea level, changes in the maximum inundation depth, depth-velocity product and momentum flux over land did not reveal simple relationships to sea levels. In addition, if Osaka’s seawalls immediately failed due to the ground shaking transmitted by the earthquake, it was estimated that around 38,000 buildings and 58,000 people would be affected by the tsunami at present (for SLR +0 m), rising to around 120,000 buildings and 150,000 people in the future. In contrast, if they survived the ground shaking, the number of affected buildings and people were shown to be significantly lower, with 7,000 buildings and 18,000 people for SLR +1.0 m. It is thus essential for Osaka to maximise the resilience of the current coastal defence system and property maintain them into the near future.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43066942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-08DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2119580
Jian Liu, Q. Jiang, Ding-ping Xu, Hong Zheng, F. Gong, Jie Xin
ABSTRACT The elastic modulus of rock is an important parameter in rock engineering, but the common methods based on laboratory tests are laborious, especially for obtaining the probability distribution of the elastic modulus that is required in reliability-based design. Many scholars have studied the regression model between the elastic modulus and P-wave velocity; however, most previous reports have ignored the characterization of parameter variability and model uncertainty. To address this problem, a large number of granite samples are collected from the Yingliangbao hydropower station (YLB), compressive wave velocity (P-wave velocity) and uniaxial compression tests are carried out in the laboratory. Then, four different regression models based on the frequentist method and Bayesian method are established to estimate the elastic modulus, the normal priors are adopted by prior analysis and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) is used to select the most appropriate Bayesian regression model. Finally, the effects of sample size and sample selection on different methods are studied, the results obtained from different priors are compared. The results show that the Bayesian method provides estimations that are more consistent with the test data and has better robustness in given sets of different sample selections, especially in small sample size.
{"title":"Uncertainty quantification for characterization of rock elastic modulus based on P-velocity","authors":"Jian Liu, Q. Jiang, Ding-ping Xu, Hong Zheng, F. Gong, Jie Xin","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2119580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2119580","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The elastic modulus of rock is an important parameter in rock engineering, but the common methods based on laboratory tests are laborious, especially for obtaining the probability distribution of the elastic modulus that is required in reliability-based design. Many scholars have studied the regression model between the elastic modulus and P-wave velocity; however, most previous reports have ignored the characterization of parameter variability and model uncertainty. To address this problem, a large number of granite samples are collected from the Yingliangbao hydropower station (YLB), compressive wave velocity (P-wave velocity) and uniaxial compression tests are carried out in the laboratory. Then, four different regression models based on the frequentist method and Bayesian method are established to estimate the elastic modulus, the normal priors are adopted by prior analysis and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) is used to select the most appropriate Bayesian regression model. Finally, the effects of sample size and sample selection on different methods are studied, the results obtained from different priors are compared. The results show that the Bayesian method provides estimations that are more consistent with the test data and has better robustness in given sets of different sample selections, especially in small sample size.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48552832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-09-01DOI: 10.3390/geohazards3030022
C. Cronkite-Ratcliff, K. Schmidt, Charlotte Wirion
Although accurate root cohesion model estimates are essential to quantify the effect of vegetation roots on shallow slope stability, few means exist to independently validate such model outputs. One validation approach for cohesion estimates is back-calculation of apparent root cohesion at a landslide site with well-documented failure conditions. The catchment named CB1, near Coos Bay, Oregon, USA, which experienced a shallow landslide in 1996, is a prime locality for cohesion model validation, as an abundance of data and observations from the site generated broad insights related to hillslope hydrology and slope stability. However, previously published root cohesion values at CB1 used the Wu and Waldron model (WWM), which assumes simultaneous root failure and therefore likely overestimates root cohesion. Reassessing published cohesion estimates from this site is warranted, as more recently developed models include the fiber bundle model (FBM), which simulates progressive failure with load redistribution, and the root bundle model-Weibull (RBMw), which accounts for differential strain loading. We applied the WWM, FBM, and RBMw at CB1 using post-failure root data from five vegetation species. At CB1, the FBM and RBMw predict values that are less than 30% of the WWM-estimated values. All three models show that root cohesion has substantial spatial heterogeneity. Most parts of the landslide scarp have little root cohesion, with areas of high cohesion concentrated near plant roots. These findings underscore the importance of using physically realistic models and considering lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of root cohesion in shallow landslide initiation and provide a necessary step towards independently assessing root cohesion model validity.
{"title":"Comparing Root Cohesion Estimates from Three Models at a Shallow Landslide in the Oregon Coast Range","authors":"C. Cronkite-Ratcliff, K. Schmidt, Charlotte Wirion","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030022","url":null,"abstract":"Although accurate root cohesion model estimates are essential to quantify the effect of vegetation roots on shallow slope stability, few means exist to independently validate such model outputs. One validation approach for cohesion estimates is back-calculation of apparent root cohesion at a landslide site with well-documented failure conditions. The catchment named CB1, near Coos Bay, Oregon, USA, which experienced a shallow landslide in 1996, is a prime locality for cohesion model validation, as an abundance of data and observations from the site generated broad insights related to hillslope hydrology and slope stability. However, previously published root cohesion values at CB1 used the Wu and Waldron model (WWM), which assumes simultaneous root failure and therefore likely overestimates root cohesion. Reassessing published cohesion estimates from this site is warranted, as more recently developed models include the fiber bundle model (FBM), which simulates progressive failure with load redistribution, and the root bundle model-Weibull (RBMw), which accounts for differential strain loading. We applied the WWM, FBM, and RBMw at CB1 using post-failure root data from five vegetation species. At CB1, the FBM and RBMw predict values that are less than 30% of the WWM-estimated values. All three models show that root cohesion has substantial spatial heterogeneity. Most parts of the landslide scarp have little root cohesion, with areas of high cohesion concentrated near plant roots. These findings underscore the importance of using physically realistic models and considering lateral and vertical spatial heterogeneity of root cohesion in shallow landslide initiation and provide a necessary step towards independently assessing root cohesion model validity.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89227140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-16DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2112697
Hui Liu, Junjie Zheng, Rongjun Zhang, Wenyu Yang, Y. Guo
ABSTRACT A slope system is a series system with numerous potential slip surfaces (PSSs), and its failure probability is commonly evaluated by several significant failure surfaces, or representative slip surfaces (RSSs). Previous efforts have mainly identified the RSSs in spatially variable soils from the perspective of the correlations between different PSSs, the effects of the failure probabilities of the PSSs were rarely considered. With the goal of identifying RSSs from the perspective of the system failure probability, a method adopting the second-order reliability method (SORM) and the multimodal optimisation is proposed. In this method, the spatial variability of soil properties along the slip surface is characterised by local averaging to reduce the number of variables in SORM. Equations for calculating the correlation coefficient between different PSSs with correlated variables are derived. The task of RSS identification is transformed as a multimodal optimisation problem, and the PSSs that make great contributions to the system failure probability are determined as RSSs. The proposed method and the derived equations are demonstrated using two slope examples. The results show that the proposed method is capable of identifying RSSs with significant contributions, and it provides a proper estimate of the system failure probability.
{"title":"Representative slip surface identification and reliability analysis of slope systems in spatially variable soils","authors":"Hui Liu, Junjie Zheng, Rongjun Zhang, Wenyu Yang, Y. Guo","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2112697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2112697","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT A slope system is a series system with numerous potential slip surfaces (PSSs), and its failure probability is commonly evaluated by several significant failure surfaces, or representative slip surfaces (RSSs). Previous efforts have mainly identified the RSSs in spatially variable soils from the perspective of the correlations between different PSSs, the effects of the failure probabilities of the PSSs were rarely considered. With the goal of identifying RSSs from the perspective of the system failure probability, a method adopting the second-order reliability method (SORM) and the multimodal optimisation is proposed. In this method, the spatial variability of soil properties along the slip surface is characterised by local averaging to reduce the number of variables in SORM. Equations for calculating the correlation coefficient between different PSSs with correlated variables are derived. The task of RSS identification is transformed as a multimodal optimisation problem, and the PSSs that make great contributions to the system failure probability are determined as RSSs. The proposed method and the derived equations are demonstrated using two slope examples. The results show that the proposed method is capable of identifying RSSs with significant contributions, and it provides a proper estimate of the system failure probability.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44423376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-11DOI: 10.3390/geohazards3030021
James I Price, A. Bohara, W. Hansen
In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused widespread destruction and displacement in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. This research evaluates determinants of displacement and, conditional on being displaced, the duration of displacement for households living in areas affected by these hurricanes. Hurdle Models, which assume that different processes govern zero outcomes (i.e., no displacement) and positive outcomes (i.e., amount of time displaced), are used to model the likelihood of household displacement and its duration as a function of socioeconomic characteristics, hurricane-caused property and neighborhood damage, social support, and financial assistance. Results show that mobile home residence, marital status, educational attainment, the presence of children, and property and neighborhood damage affect the likelihood and expected length of displacement among sample respondents. Financial assistance and social support are also correlated with displacement and its duration, but endogeneity concerns complicate the interpretation of these results. The findings highlight the diversity of factors that slow households’ return following displacement and underscore the need for additional research on the role of social capital in determining hazard-related outcomes.
{"title":"Determinants of Displacement and Displacement Duration Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: A Hurdle Model Approach","authors":"James I Price, A. Bohara, W. Hansen","doi":"10.3390/geohazards3030021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3030021","url":null,"abstract":"In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused widespread destruction and displacement in parts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. This research evaluates determinants of displacement and, conditional on being displaced, the duration of displacement for households living in areas affected by these hurricanes. Hurdle Models, which assume that different processes govern zero outcomes (i.e., no displacement) and positive outcomes (i.e., amount of time displaced), are used to model the likelihood of household displacement and its duration as a function of socioeconomic characteristics, hurricane-caused property and neighborhood damage, social support, and financial assistance. Results show that mobile home residence, marital status, educational attainment, the presence of children, and property and neighborhood damage affect the likelihood and expected length of displacement among sample respondents. Financial assistance and social support are also correlated with displacement and its duration, but endogeneity concerns complicate the interpretation of these results. The findings highlight the diversity of factors that slow households’ return following displacement and underscore the need for additional research on the role of social capital in determining hazard-related outcomes.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87850099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-11DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2101066
D. Varkey, M. Hicks, P. Vardon
ABSTRACT This paper investigates the influence of three forms of uncertainty on the probabilistic stability of an idealised 3D embankment slope. These are: 1D spatial variability in the external geometry of the slope along its length, 2D spatial variability in the depth of the boundary between the embankment material and the foundation layer, and 3D spatial variability in the shear strength properties of the slope and foundation materials. The relative influence of each uncertainty has been investigated using the random finite element method, based on statistics consistent with a Dutch regional dyke. The results indicate that, for such a structure, the soil spatial variability has a much greater influence than uncertainties relating to embankment geometry and inter-layer boundary. In particular, it is demonstrated that the spatial correlation of material properties along the length of the embankment has a greater influence on the probabilistic characteristics of the embankment slope stability and failure consequence than the spatial correlation of properties perpendicular to it. A worst case scale of fluctuation for the material properties is identified.
{"title":"Effect of uncertainties in geometry, inter-layer boundary and shear strength properties on the probabilistic stability of a 3D embankment slope","authors":"D. Varkey, M. Hicks, P. Vardon","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2101066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2101066","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper investigates the influence of three forms of uncertainty on the probabilistic stability of an idealised 3D embankment slope. These are: 1D spatial variability in the external geometry of the slope along its length, 2D spatial variability in the depth of the boundary between the embankment material and the foundation layer, and 3D spatial variability in the shear strength properties of the slope and foundation materials. The relative influence of each uncertainty has been investigated using the random finite element method, based on statistics consistent with a Dutch regional dyke. The results indicate that, for such a structure, the soil spatial variability has a much greater influence than uncertainties relating to embankment geometry and inter-layer boundary. In particular, it is demonstrated that the spatial correlation of material properties along the length of the embankment has a greater influence on the probabilistic characteristics of the embankment slope stability and failure consequence than the spatial correlation of properties perpendicular to it. A worst case scale of fluctuation for the material properties is identified.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42574704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-01DOI: 10.1080/17499518.2022.2105366
K. Phoon, Z. Cao, Zhongqiang Liu, J. Ching
ABSTRACT The ISSMGE TC309/TC304/TC222 Third Machine Learning in Geotechnics Dialogue (3MLIGD) was hosted online by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute on 3 December 2021. There is a consensus that the potential of digital transformation in geotechnical site characterisation is significant. Nonetheless, there is a clear-eyed recognition that the industry is currently governed by a set of rules that evolved from Industry 3.0 and it is only beginning to explore the potential of digital technologies. This state is to be expected as digital transformation is expected to change the “rules of the game” in the context of Industry 4.0 that is rapidly evolving in tandem with emerging technologies. The number of practitioners and researchers who are interested in data-centric geotechnics remains a small minority. There is a unanimous view that this small community can achieve greater impact and hasten progress by fostering more collaborations and working more closely together through: (1) data sharing, (2) creating a “yellow page” of people and projects to facilitate greater connectivity, (3) establishing novel collaborative modes between industry and academia, (4) demonstrating value through “ML supremacy” projects that include mapping studies covering large, real-time, multi-source datasets over large spatial domains, and (5) educating young talents by creating ML internships.
{"title":"Report for ISSMGE TC309/TC304/TC222 Third ML dialogue on “Data-Driven Site Characterization (DDSC)”","authors":"K. Phoon, Z. Cao, Zhongqiang Liu, J. Ching","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2105366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2105366","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The ISSMGE TC309/TC304/TC222 Third Machine Learning in Geotechnics Dialogue (3MLIGD) was hosted online by the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute on 3 December 2021. There is a consensus that the potential of digital transformation in geotechnical site characterisation is significant. Nonetheless, there is a clear-eyed recognition that the industry is currently governed by a set of rules that evolved from Industry 3.0 and it is only beginning to explore the potential of digital technologies. This state is to be expected as digital transformation is expected to change the “rules of the game” in the context of Industry 4.0 that is rapidly evolving in tandem with emerging technologies. The number of practitioners and researchers who are interested in data-centric geotechnics remains a small minority. There is a unanimous view that this small community can achieve greater impact and hasten progress by fostering more collaborations and working more closely together through: (1) data sharing, (2) creating a “yellow page” of people and projects to facilitate greater connectivity, (3) establishing novel collaborative modes between industry and academia, (4) demonstrating value through “ML supremacy” projects that include mapping studies covering large, real-time, multi-source datasets over large spatial domains, and (5) educating young talents by creating ML internships.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43246147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-27DOI: 10.3390/geohazards3030020
L. Batista, Alfredo Ribeiro Neto
There are still gaps in defining values and category classifications of exposed items in quantitative damage analysis. This paper proposes a framework that refines the development of flood risk analysis at a local scale. This study first performs a quantitative risk analysis, based mainly on secondary data; it then attempts to communicate the results graphically, aiming to reduce the financial and human resources required. We propose an easily standardized database in a GIS environment, analyzing the influence of a reservoir for flood control and the construction of replicable local-scale risk curves. Hydrological (HEC-HMS) and 2D hydrodynamic (HEC-RAS) models were used to simulate hydrographs considering different return periods. For damage estimation, the processing included vectorization of lots, building use definition with Google Street View, classification of standard designs, and a field survey to validate those classes. In monetary value, this study calculated the effect of the construction of a reservoir for damage reduction, showing the potential to determine the effectiveness of measures adopted to mitigate flood impacts. In addition, for each simulated return period, exposure, hazard, and damage maps can be established, making it possible to perform a complete risk analysis.
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