Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第6页

Asymmetric heatwave intensification under divergent climate change mitigation pathways amplifies urban–rural exposure disparities 不同气候变化缓解路径下的不对称热浪加剧放大了城乡暴露差异

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100821

Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri , Wen Zhou , Christopher E. Ndehedehe , Kazeem Abiodun Ishola , Akintomide A. Akinsanola , Naveed Ahmed , Xuan Wang

Unmitigated climate change poses threats to human and environmental well-being through increasingly intense and frequent heatwaves. However, the future impact of heatwaves on urban and rural populations remains uncertain. We project intensified heatwave characteristics and earlier onsets across numerous global regions using bias-corrected climate models. The projected impacts of limiting global warming to either regional-rivalry (SSP370) or fossil-fueled development (SSP585) pathways differ significantly, with SSP585 resulting in substantially more persistence and intensity than SSP370. Under SSP370, high heatwave frequency (HWF) correlates with low heatwave number (HWN) in most tropical regions, but the opposite is true in polar regions. Moreover, heatwave intensity is mostly governed by radiative and advective forcing, while persistence depends on large-scale flow stability. We further demonstrate that heatwave exposure varies considerably across different climate regions and population strata, with rural populations exhibiting exposure comparable to urban populations. Under SSP 370, the Tibetan region will witness rural population exposure to HWF totalling 15 million person-days, compared to 5 million person-days in urban population exposure. In East Asia, both the near and late-21st-century scenarios under SSP 370 show a dominant climate effect (at 90 %) governing the total changes to rural population exposure. In general, most regions are expected to witness the population effect dominance during SSP 370 in the mid-21st-century for rural populations, while the population effect dominance for urban populations varies by region. Our findings underscore the importance of developing customized adaptation plans to address the challenges of heatwaves in a changing climate.

无法缓解的气候变化通过日益强烈和频繁的热浪对人类和环境福祉构成威胁。然而，未来热浪对城市和农村人口的影响仍不确定。我们利用校正偏倚的气候模式预测了全球许多地区热浪特征的增强和发病时间的提前。限制全球变暖对区域竞争（SSP370）或化石燃料发展（SSP585）途径的预期影响存在显著差异，SSP585导致的持续时间和强度明显高于SSP370。在SSP370下，大多数热带地区的高热浪频率（HWF）与低热浪次数（HWN）相关，而极地地区则相反。此外，热浪强度主要受辐射和平流强迫的影响，而持续性则取决于大尺度流动的稳定性。我们进一步证明，热浪暴露在不同气候区域和人口阶层之间差异很大，农村人口的暴露程度与城市人口相当。在东亚，SSP 370下的21世纪中期和后期情景都表明，气候效应主导着农村人口暴露的总变化（占90%）。总体而言，大多数地区预计在21世纪中期的SSP 370期间，农村人口将见证人口效应的主导地位，而城市人口的人口效应主导地位因地区而异。我们的研究结果强调了制定定制适应计划以应对气候变化中热浪挑战的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Catchment scale changes to rainfall intermittency across Australia 整个澳大利亚的集水区规模变化导致降雨间歇性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100819

Steven Thomas , Conrad Wasko , Danlu Guo , Ulrike Bende-Michl , Murray Peel

Hydroclimatic variability at the catchment scale modulates spatiotemporal patterns of water availability, potentially inducing hydrological extremes such as flooding and drought. These events alter streamflow and pose significant challenges for water resources management, ultimately impacting local ecosystems and communities. To understand the changes in hydroclimatic variability we examine the patterns of rainfall intermittency using aggregated catchment average rainfall. 467 Hydrological Reference Stations (HRS) catchments are used with data spanning from 1950 to 2022 across the Australian continent. We investigate changes in intermittency characteristics such as spell duration, frequency and intensity at the annual and seasonal scale. There is a clear trend towards an increase in rainfall intermittency with an increase in the number of both wet and dry spells per year across Australia. Wet spells are becoming shorter across 80 % of catchments, with an increase in the number of dry days per year. Despite this increase in dry days, there are no robust trends for changes in dry spell length. Catchments with drying trends are typically in southern and eastern Australia, whilst the catchments in northern and northwestern Australia exhibit wetting trends. This wetting trend comes from fewer dry days and increases in both annual rainfall totals and rainfall intensity during wet spells. We find that the trends in the seasonal scale are regionally dependent and align with changes in the large-scale drivers of regional rainfall dynamics. In the south, winter rainfall and wet spells are the most impacted, whereas in the north, it is the summer monsoon that is most impacted by these trends. Our results show rainfall intermittency has increased in recent decades, suggesting that intermittency could potentially continue to change into the future. These results also highlight the need to investigate wet and dry spells concurrently to form a foundational understanding of how rainfall intermittency dynamics are changing. We conclude that changes in rainfall intermittency across Australian catchments have the potential to impact water resources management and need to be considered in future planning.

流域尺度上的水文气候变异调节了水资源可利用性的时空格局，可能导致洪水和干旱等水文极端事件。这些事件改变了水流，给水资源管理带来了重大挑战，最终影响到当地的生态系统和社区。为了了解水文气候变率的变化，我们使用集水区平均总降雨量来研究降雨间歇性的模式。467个水文参考站（HRS）集水区使用了1950年至2022年整个澳大利亚大陆的数据。我们在年和季节尺度上研究了间歇性特征的变化，如法术持续时间、频率和强度。随着澳大利亚每年湿润和干燥天气的增加，降雨间歇性增加的趋势很明显。在80%的集水区，雨季变得越来越短，每年干旱的天数增加。尽管干旱天数有所增加，但干旱期长度的变化趋势并不明显。具有干燥趋势的集水区通常位于澳大利亚南部和东部，而澳大利亚北部和西北部的集水区则呈现湿润趋势。这种湿润趋势来自干旱天数的减少以及年降雨量总量和湿润期降雨强度的增加。研究发现，季节尺度的变化趋势具有区域依赖性，并与区域降雨动力学的大尺度驱动因素的变化相一致。在南方，冬季降雨和湿润期受到的影响最大，而在北方，受这些趋势影响最大的是夏季风。我们的研究结果表明，近几十年来，降雨的间断性有所增加，这表明间断性可能会在未来继续发生变化。这些结果也强调了同时调查干湿期的必要性，以形成对降雨间歇动力学如何变化的基本理解。我们的结论是，澳大利亚集水区降雨间歇性的变化有可能影响水资源管理，需要在未来的规划中加以考虑。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia 来自澳大利亚高分辨率区域气候模式大集合的极端降雨评估和预估

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818

Lalani Jayaweera , Conrad Wasko , Rory Nathan , Jozef Syktus , Rohan Eccles

Incorporating climate change into intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves is broadly conducted using either a climate model simulation–based approach or a covariate–based approach. However, as of now, there has been no research comparing these two approaches in the context of rainfall IDF derivation under climate change. To this end, this study evaluates the 1–h annual rainfall maxima from an ensemble of 60 CORDEX–CMIP6 simulations using a high–resolution regional climate model, the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, for Australia. We quantify rainfall changes for the near (2041–2070) and far (2071–2100) future compared to a reference period (1961–1990) across various durations and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) under three emissions scenarios for 39 locations across Australia. We then compare these projections with covariate–based frequency model projections. The 1–h extreme (1 in 100 AEP) hindcast event shows a negative bias relative to observations, with a wide degree of variability across the ensemble. Projected changes for a high emissions scenario with a 3°C of global temperature increase show a median increase of 33.9% for 1–h and 18.9% for 1–day extreme events by the end of the century. Additionally, the reference 1 in 100 AEP event is projected to be 2.3 and 1.6 times more frequent for the 1–h and 1–day durations, respectively. Projections also indicated extreme rainfall increases at the rate of 8.7%°C⁻¹, which exceeds Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling for 1–h duration events, and nearly equal CC scaling for longer 1–day durations. Covariate–based projections indicated larger quantile increases for 1–h events with no change for 1–day events. Regional downscaling provides robust evidence for extreme rainfall changes despite uncertainties.

将气候变化纳入强度-持续-频率（IDF）曲线通常采用基于气候模式模拟的方法或基于协变量的方法。然而，目前还没有研究将这两种方法在气候变化条件下的降水IDF推导中进行比较。为此，本研究利用高分辨率区域气候模式（共形立方大气模式）评估了澳大利亚60个CORDEX-CMIP6模拟集合的1小时年最大降雨量。与参考期（1961-1990）相比，我们量化了澳大利亚39个地点三种排放情景下不同持续时间和年超过概率（AEPs）的近期（2041-2070）和远期（2071-2100）未来的降雨量变化。然后，我们将这些预测与基于协变量的频率模型预测进行比较。1小时极端（100 AEP中有1个）后播事件相对于观测值显示出负偏倚，在整体上具有很大程度的变异性。在全球温度升高3°C的高排放情景下，预估的变化表明，到本世纪末，1小时极端事件的中位数增幅为33.9%，1天极端事件的中位数增幅为18.9%。此外，参考资料1 / 100 AEP事件预计在1小时和1天内的频率分别是2.3倍和1.6倍。预估还表明，极端降雨以8.7%°C - 1的速率增加，超过了持续1 h事件的clusius - clapeyron （CC）标度，并且在持续1天的事件中几乎等于CC标度。基于协变量的预测表明，1小时事件的分位数增加较大，而1天事件的分位数没有变化。区域降尺度为极端降雨变化提供了强有力的证据，尽管存在不确定性。

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引用次数: 0

Estimating spring frost risk in apple farms from crop insurance data 根据作物保险数据估算苹果农场春季霜冻风险

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100809

Seung Min Kim , Jeongha Hwang , Kwansoo Kim

In South Korea, spring frost events frequently deliver catastrophic damage to apple orchards, leading to destabilization of apple markets and causing substantial financial burdens to the crop insurers. The present study aims to establish an analytical framework for spring frost prediction based on a Machine Learning (ML) algorithm and a four-year record of spring frost crop insurance loss claims. A fine-scale, observation-based gridded weather dataset is paired with the insurance dataset to analyze the relationship between spring frost damage and meteorological, climactic, and socioeconomic conditions. The results show that the Random Forest (RF) algorithm outperforms all tested algorithms of classical binary outcome variable regression and discriminant analysis, with an accuracy of

> 94 %

, and this superiority is robust over different classification thresholds. Farmer socioeconomic information held by the insurers provides additional improvements in RF performance, while the transformation of temperature variable to double-threshold degree days is not significant. The algorithms are applied to the assessment of spring frost risk at insurance-covered farms. We find evidence suggesting “adverse selection,” where farmers purchasing lower deductible plans show higher spring frost risk. The results will help both crop insurers and farmers manage spring frost risk by providing a reliable predicting framework of disaster occurrence and shaping the optimal crop insurance contract.

在韩国，春季霜冻事件经常给苹果园带来灾难性的破坏，导致苹果市场的不稳定，给作物保险公司带来巨大的经济负担。本研究旨在建立一个基于机器学习（ML）算法和四年春霜作物保险损失索赔记录的春霜预测分析框架。将基于观测的精细尺度网格化天气数据集与保险数据集配对，分析春季霜冻灾害与气象、气候和社会经济条件之间的关系。结果表明，随机森林（Random Forest， RF）算法优于所有经过测试的经典二元结果变量回归和判别分析算法，准确率达到94%，并且在不同分类阈值下具有鲁棒性。保险公司持有的农民社会经济信息提供了射频性能的额外改进，而温度变量到双阈值度天数的转换并不显著。将该算法应用于参保农场的春霜风险评估。我们发现了“逆向选择”的证据，即购买较低免赔额计划的农民出现较高的春季霜冻风险。研究结果将通过提供可靠的灾害发生预测框架和制定最佳的作物保险合同，帮助作物保险公司和农民管理春霜风险。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the effects of compound events of temperature and air pollution on weekly mortality in Spain using random forests 利用随机森林评估温度和空气污染复合事件对西班牙每周死亡率的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100816

Ginés Garnés-Morales , Javier Tortosa , Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero , Salvador Gil-Guirado , Ester García-Fernández , Juan Pedro Montávez

Numerous studies have shown the link between extreme weather events and mortality. Specifically, the impacts of extreme temperatures on death rates have been extensively evaluated and documented. Likewise, exposure to air pollution is well known to adversely affect health, with extreme pollution episodes also being related to elevated mortality rates. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that the combination of these phenomena could result in elevated mortality episodes. In this study, we demonstrate that the temporal variability of mortality rates across several Spanish provinces can be effectively explained by a multivariate model that incorporates both meteorological factors and air quality. While a Random Forest analysis shows that temperature is the primary factor in most provinces, the inclusion of pollutant concentration significantly enhances the model’s predictive accuracy. Moreover, a seasonal analysis of extreme events reveals a strong relationship between high mortality episodes and the occurrence of compound events. These events encompass different variables depending on the season. During summer (June–August), situations characterized by extreme temperatures combined with elevated ozone levels result in marked mortality peaks within the same week. In winter (December–February), conditions involving very low temperatures along with high nitrogen dioxide concentrations are associated with extreme mortality rates (above the 90th percentile) during the following week in half of the cases considered. These results suggest that early warning systems should include not only the individual variables but also their combination.

大量研究表明，极端天气事件与死亡率之间存在联系。具体而言，极端温度对死亡率的影响已得到广泛评估和记录。同样，众所周知，接触空气污染会对健康产生不利影响，极端污染事件也与死亡率升高有关。因此，我们有理由预计，这些现象的结合可能导致死亡率升高。在这项研究中，我们证明了西班牙几个省份的死亡率的时间变异性可以通过一个包含气象因素和空气质量的多变量模型有效地解释。随机森林分析显示，温度是大多数省份的主要影响因素，但污染物浓度的加入显著提高了模型的预测精度。此外，对极端事件的季节性分析表明，高死亡率事件与复合事件的发生之间存在密切关系。根据季节的不同，这些事件包含不同的变量。在夏季（6月至8月），极端温度加上臭氧水平升高的情况导致在同一周内出现明显的死亡率高峰。在冬季（12月至2月），温度极低且二氧化氮浓度高的情况与所考虑的半数病例在随后一周内的极端死亡率（高于第90百分位数）有关。这些结果表明，预警系统不仅应包括单个变量，还应包括它们的组合。

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引用次数: 0

Two sides of the same coin? Hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact-based flood warning systems and climate change sensitivity of floodplains 同一枚硬币的两面？基于影响的洪水预警系统中的水文气象不确定性与洪泛区气候变化敏感性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100817

Markus Mosimann, Olivia Martius, Andreas Paul Zischg

The sensitivity of floodplains to floods of various magnitudes is strongly influenced by the relationship between hydrogeomorphology and the built environment. To provide a nuanced measure of impact sensitivity to changes in flood magnitude, we introduce a novel floodplain sensitivity index (

F S I

) that integrates slope and curvature metrics derived from the magnitude–impact curve. We apply the method to 179 floodplains in Switzerland. Our analysis reveals that higher flood magnitudes might substantially amplify impacts, given that many of the most sensitive magnitude thresholds have not yet been exceeded. We did not find coherent patterns in the

F S I

across geographic or topographic regions or along entire rivers. The shape of the impact curves and thus the impact sensitivity is specific not only to the floodplain but also to the type of impact. The

F S I

contributes to flood risk management by providing a method to identify critical flood magnitude thresholds that lead to severe impacts if exceeded. The

F S I

helps in assessing the effects of uncertainties in hydrometeorological forecasts on impact-based warnings and of uncertainties in climate change projections for long-term flood risk management strategies.

洪泛区对不同震级洪水的敏感性受到水文地貌与建筑环境之间关系的强烈影响。为了提供对洪水震级变化的影响敏感性的细致测量，我们引入了一种新的洪泛区敏感性指数（FSI），该指数集成了从震级影响曲线得出的斜率和曲率指标。我们将该方法应用于瑞士的179个洪泛平原。我们的分析表明，考虑到许多最敏感的震级阈值尚未被超过，更高的洪水震级可能会大大放大影响。我们没有发现跨地理或地形区域或沿整个河流的FSI的连贯模式。冲击曲线的形状以及由此产生的冲击敏感性不仅与洪泛区有关，而且与冲击类型有关。FSI为洪水风险管理提供了一种方法，以确定一旦超过就会导致严重影响的关键洪水级别阈值。FSI有助于评估水文气象预报的不确定性对基于影响的预警的影响，以及气候变化预测的不确定性对长期洪水风险管理策略的影响。

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引用次数: 0

The spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 via a copula function 基于copula函数的1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件时空特征

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100815

Tingting Liu , Xiufang Zhu , Hongquan Sun , Mingxiu Tang

In this study, a comprehensive and systematic analysis of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 utilizing the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and copula functions based on monthly gridded precipitation data is presented. In this study, drought events and their characteristics are identified using run theory and the 3-month SPI. A drought event with a joint exceedance probability of drought severity and duration calculated by the copula function at less than 5 % was subsequently defined as an extreme drought. Under extreme drought conditions, the duration/severity of drought was fixed at a specific value, the corresponding drought severity/duration was calculated grid by grid, and its spatial heterogeneity and change were analyzed during two time periods (1961–1991 and 1992–2022). The results revealed significant temporal and spatial variations in drought trends, with increased precipitation severity in Northwest China and the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau and more severe drought conditions in Northeast China and South China. The western part of Northwest China (Subregion 1) and the northern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (Subregion 6) experienced longer and more severe drought events, characterized by average durations of 3.93 months and maximum severities up to 10.52 in Subregion 1, significantly exceeding national averages (3.47 months and 9.26). The duration/severity of extreme drought varied in different regions, with higher durations/severities in drought-prone areas. The frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events exhibited significant variations, particularly in central and southern China, where the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events have increased. In subtropical humid regions in Central China and South China (Subregion 5), 47 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of occurrences, 54 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of months of occurrence, 64 % of the grids experience an increase in the average severity, and 62 % of the grids experience an increase in the maximum severity. Additionally, the number of extreme droughts caused by both duration and severity was greater than the number of extreme droughts dominated by any one factor alone. This study contributes to a more comprehensive assessment of extreme drought, providing a scientific basis for drought monitoring in China.

基于逐月格点降水数据，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和copula函数对1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件进行了综合系统分析。本研究利用运行理论和3个月SPI识别干旱事件及其特征。由copula函数计算的干旱严重程度和持续时间的联合超过概率小于5%的干旱事件随后被定义为极端干旱。在极端干旱条件下，将干旱持续时间/严重程度固定在某一特定值，逐格计算对应的干旱严重程度/持续时间，分析1961—1991年和1992—2022年两个时间段干旱持续时间/持续时间的空间异质性和变化。第一分区域的严重程度分别为93个月和10.52个月，显著高于全国平均水平（3.47个月和9.26个月）。极端干旱的持续时间/严重程度在不同地区有所不同，在干旱易发地区持续时间/严重程度更高。极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度呈现显著变化，特别是在中国中部和南部地区，极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度都有所增加。在中国中部和华南亚热带湿润地区（第五分区），47%的栅格总发生次数增加，54%的栅格总发生月数增加，64%的栅格平均严重程度增加，62%的栅格最大严重程度增加。此外，由持续时间和严重程度引起的极端干旱的数量大于仅由任何一种因素主导的极端干旱的数量。该研究有助于更全面地评价极端干旱，为中国干旱监测提供科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

The opposite trends in precipitation total and extremes during two rain-seasons across Ethiopia, the Water Tower of Africa 在被称为“非洲水塔”的埃塞俄比亚，两个雨季的总降水量和极端降水量呈现相反的趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813

Tewodros Addisu Yate , Guoyu Ren

This study assesses trends in precipitation total and extremes across Ethiopia from 1980 to 2019, using datasets of daily gauge observations. Following quality control and homogenization, daily precipitation data from 110 stations are gridded onto a 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid cells. Precipitation anomaly percentage (PAP) and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indices are applied to represent precipitation total and extremes, respectively. Regional time series are constructed using area-weighted averages derived from the grid-level data. The Theil-Sen estimator and the modified Mann-Kendall test are employed to evaluate the statistical significance of trends at the 5 % level. The results indicate an annual and Jun–Sep seasonal increase in both precipitation total and extremes, characterized by rising frequency and intensity of extreme events. The Theil-Sen slope estimates a regional annual PAP increase of 0.92 % per decade, with a more pronounced rise of 4.6 % per decade for the Jun–Sep season (main precipitation season). Significant upward regional trends are observed in extreme indices such as RX1day, R95p, R99p, R10, R25, and R40 during the forty years. Spatial analysis highlights central, northwestern, and northeastern Ethiopia as areas experiencing robust increases in precipitation total and extremes. The observed rise in precipitation total is predominantly driven by increases in precipitation extremes within the region, as demonstrated by spatial correlations between precipitation total and extremes. Conversely, the Feb–May season (secondary precipitation season) exhibits significant regional decreases in precipitation total and extremes, particularly in northeastern, eastern, and southern areas. This includes declines in frequency-related indices (R5, R10, R25) and prolonged dry spells as measured by CDD. The causes for the increase in frequency and intensity of annual and Jun–Sep seasonal precipitation in Ethiopia over recent decades need to be investigated, though it is in accordance with the expectation that anthropogenic global warming can result in a rise in precipitation extremes over most regions of the world. However, the significant changes in precipitation observed in both Jun–Sep and Feb–May seasons are a cause for concern, as they may exert a major impact on sectors and areas of the country where these two seasons hold critical importance.

本研究利用每日测量观测数据集，评估了1980年至2019年埃塞俄比亚的降水总量和极端降水趋势。在质量控制和均质化之后，110个站点的日降水数据被网格化到1°× 1°经纬度网格单元上。降水异常百分比（PAP）指数和气候变化探测与指数专家组（ETCCDI）指数分别代表总降水量和极值降水量。区域时间序列是使用从网格级数据导出的面积加权平均值构建的。采用Theil-Sen估计量和修正Mann-Kendall检验来评估5%水平下趋势的统计显著性。结果表明：全年和6 - 9月降水总量和极端事件均呈增加趋势，极端事件发生频率和强度均呈上升趋势；Theil-Sen斜率估计区域年PAP每10年增加0.92%，其中6 - 9月（主要降水季节）的年PAP增加更为明显，每10年增加4.6%。40 a来，RX1day、R95p、R99p、R10、R25、R40等极端指数呈显著的区域上升趋势。空间分析强调，埃塞俄比亚中部、西北部和东北部地区的降水总量和极端降水都在强劲增加。观测到的降水总量的增加主要是由区域内极端降水的增加所驱动的，正如降水总量与极端降水之间的空间相关性所证明的那样。相反，2 - 5月（二次降水季）降水总量和极值均呈现明显的区域减少，特别是在东北部、东部和南部地区。这包括频率相关指数（R5、R10、R25）的下降，以及CDD测量的干旱期延长。近几十年来，埃塞俄比亚年度和6 - 9月季节性降水频率和强度增加的原因需要调查，尽管这与人为全球变暖可能导致世界大多数地区极端降水增加的预期是一致的。然而，6月至9月和2月至5月两个季节观测到的降水显著变化令人担忧，因为它们可能对该国这两个季节至关重要的部门和地区产生重大影响。

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引用次数: 0

Attributing a deadly landslide disaster in Southeastern Brazil to human-induced climate change 将巴西东南部致命的山体滑坡灾害归咎于人为引起的气候变化

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100811

Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa , Rafaela Quintella Veiga , Renata Pacheco Quevedo , Débora Joana Dutra , Ana Carolina Moreira Pessôa , Thaís Pereira de Medeiros , Chantelle Burton , Yuexiao Liu , Nubia Beray Armond , Rafael C. de Abreu , Sihan Li , Fraser C. Lott , Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo , Sarah Sparrow , Liana Oighenstein Anderson

Petrópolis was hit by a devastating disaster in February 2022, when it rained 252.8 mm within 3 h, leading to 200 lost lives and hundreds of people being displaced. Here, we aimed to attribute the extreme rainfall event that led to several landslides in Petrópolis, assess how Land Use and Land Cover changes (LUCC) from 1985 to 2021 contributed to it, and quantify their socioeconomic impacts. For this, we compared natural-only forcing (NAT) and natural and anthropogenic forcing combined (ALL) scenarios of the HadGEM3 ensemble models with observation data. We computed the trends in LUCC and quantified the landslide's socioeconomic impacts from official datasets. Human-induced climate change made this extreme event 45 % and 71 % more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively. Recurrence period dropped from 2.36 years (NAT) to 1.63 years (ALL) in the short-term and from 5.66 years (NAT) to 3.31 years (ALL) in the long-term. Landscape trends show an increase in forest formations, but unprotected hilltops that collapsed presented more than 40 % of their area as farming. The total economic loss was more than USD 22 million, with 1 078 people directly affected. The study's findings are valuable in understanding how changes in extreme weather events and land use are affecting our society. We highlight the need for adaptation measures and for more research addressing the attribution of extreme events, especially those associated with disastrous landslides.

2022年2月，Petrópolis遭受了一场毁灭性的灾难，当时3小时内降雨量达到252.8毫米，导致200人丧生，数百人流离失所。在这里，我们的目的是归因导致Petrópolis几次山体滑坡的极端降雨事件，评估1985年至2021年土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LUCC）是如何促成它的，并量化其社会经济影响。为此，我们将HadGEM3整体模式的自然强迫（NAT）和自然与人为强迫组合（ALL）情景与观测数据进行了比较。我们计算了LUCC的趋势，并从官方数据集中量化了滑坡的社会经济影响。人为引起的气候变化使这种极端事件在短期和长期降雨方面的可能性分别增加了45%和71%。短期复发期由2.36 a （NAT）降至1.63 a (ALL)，长期复发期由5.66 a （NAT）降至3.31 a （ALL）。景观趋势表明，森林的形成有所增加，但未受保护的山顶坍塌，其面积的40%以上为农业。经济损失总额超过2200万美元，直接受灾人数达1078人。这项研究的发现对于理解极端天气事件和土地利用的变化如何影响我们的社会是有价值的。我们强调需要采取适应措施，并开展更多研究，解决极端事件的归因问题，特别是与灾难性山体滑坡有关的事件。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria 模拟暴雨适应策略对尼日利亚埃基蒂州农村农民玉米产量的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100814

Adewale Isaac Olutumise , Lawrence Olusola Oparinde , Akinyemi Gabriel Omonijo , Igbekele Amos Ajibefun , Taye Timothy Amos , Yiseyon Sunday Hosu , Julius Olumide Ilesanmi , Dayo Temitope Oguntuase

The increased recurrence of rainstorms remains a concern for productivity and economic development, especially in developing countries. Therefore, focusing on rainstorm adaptation and its impact on agricultural productivity will play a vital role in shaping policy decisions. Based on this fact, the study models the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria, using an endogenous switching regression model. By the cross-sectional data of 293 farmers, the model accounts for selectivity bias. The result recognised that the rainstorm event had caused economic and environmental damage. However, the farmers do make proactive efforts to adapt to rainstorms in the area. The results further revealed that age, education, income, fertilizer applications, hill region, participation in training, and climate information determine the adoption of rainstorm adaptation decision-making. Our findings show that the adoption of rainstorm adaptation increased maize yield, as an average farmer who adopted it produced nearly 57 % more than farmers who did not adopt it. Again, adopters would have lost about 44 % value of yield if they had decided not to adopt, whereas approximately 28 % value of yield would have accrued by the non-adopters if they had adopted. Again, the number of assets owned, fertilizer application, climate belief, and participation in climate-related training are the significant factors explaining higher adopters’ yield. Therefore, the study suggests policy interventions that will promote the wide adoption of rainstorm adaptations. Also, improved weather forecasting services and better access to relevant climate information can help farmers make better decisions and plan their agricultural activities.

暴雨频繁发生仍然是生产力和经济发展的一个关切，特别是在发展中国家。因此，关注暴雨适应及其对农业生产力的影响将在制定政策决策中发挥至关重要的作用。基于此，本研究采用内源转换回归模型，模拟了尼日利亚Ekiti州农民暴雨适应策略对玉米产量的影响。通过293个农户的横截面数据，该模型考虑了选择性偏倚。结果表明，暴雨事件造成了经济和环境损害。然而，农民们确实做出了积极的努力来适应该地区的暴风雨。结果进一步表明，年龄、教育程度、收入、肥料施用、丘陵地区、参加培训和气候信息决定了暴雨适应决策的采用。我们的研究结果表明，采用暴雨适应措施提高了玉米产量，采用该措施的农民的平均产量比未采用该措施的农民高出近57%。同样，如果采用者决定不采用，他们将损失约44%的收益值，而如果他们采用了，非采用者将损失约28%的收益值。同样，拥有的资产数量、肥料施用、气候信念和参与气候相关培训是解释采用者更高产量的重要因素。因此，该研究建议采取政策干预措施，促进广泛采用适应暴雨的措施。此外，改善天气预报服务和更好地获取相关气候信息可以帮助农民做出更好的决策和规划他们的农业活动。

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引用次数: 0