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Fast generation of high-dimensional spatial extremes 快速生成高维空间极值
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100732
Hans Van de Vyver
Widespread extreme climate events cause many fatalities, economic losses and have a huge impact on critical infrastructure. It is therefore of utmost importance to estimate the frequency and associated consequences of spatially concurrent extremes. Impact studies of climate extremes are severely hampered by the lack of extreme observations, and even large ensembles of climate simulations often do not include enough extreme or record-breaking climate events for robust analysis. On the other hand, weather generators specifically fitted to extreme observations can quickly generate many physically or statistically plausible extreme events, even with intensities that have never been observed before. We propose a Fourier-based algorithm for generating high-resolution synthetic datasets of rare events, using essential concepts of classical modelling of (spatial) extremes. Here, the key feature is that the stochastically generated datasets have the same spatial dependence as the observed extreme events. Using high-resolution gridded precipitation and temperature datasets, we show that the new algorithm produces realistic spatial patterns, and is particularly attractive compared to other existing methods for spatial extremes. It is exceptionally fast, easy to implement, scalable to high dimensions and, in principle, applicable for any spatial resolution. We generated datasets with 10,000 gridpoints, a number that can be increased without difficulty. Since current impact models often require high-resolution climate inputs, the new algorithm is particularly useful for improved impact and vulnerability assessment.
大范围的极端气候事件会造成大量人员伤亡和经济损失,并对关键基础设施产生巨大影响。因此,估算空间上同时发生的极端事件的频率和相关后果至关重要。由于缺乏极端观测数据,对极端气候影响的研究受到严重阻碍,即使是大型气候模拟集合也往往没有足够的极端或破纪录气候事件来进行可靠的分析。另一方面,专门根据极端观测数据拟合的天气生成器可以快速生成许多物理上或统计上可信的极端事件,甚至是以前从未观测到的强度。我们提出了一种基于傅立叶的算法,利用(空间)极端事件经典建模的基本概念,生成高分辨率的罕见事件合成数据集。该算法的主要特点是随机生成的数据集与观测到的极端事件具有相同的空间依赖性。通过使用高分辨率网格降水和气温数据集,我们发现新算法能产生逼真的空间模式,与其他现有的空间极端事件方法相比,新算法尤其具有吸引力。该算法异常快速、易于实施、可扩展至高维度,原则上适用于任何空间分辨率。我们生成了包含 10,000 个网格点的数据集,这个数字可以毫无困难地增加。由于目前的影响模型通常需要高分辨率的气候输入,新算法对于改进影响和脆弱性评估特别有用。
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引用次数: 0
Anthropogenic influence on precipitation in Aotearoa New Zealand with differing circulation types 不同环流类型对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦降水的人为影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100727
Anjali Thomas , Adrian McDonald , James Renwick , Suzanne Rosier , Jordis S. Tradowsky , Gregory E. Bodeker
This study quantifies the influences of anthropogenic forcing to date on precipitation over Aotearoa New Zealand (ANZ). Large ensembles of simulations from the weather@home regional climate model experiments are analysed under two scenarios, a natural (NAT) or counter-factual scenario which excludes human-induced changes to the climate system and an anthropogenic (ANT) or factual scenario. The impacts of anthropogenic forcing on precipitation are analysed in the context of large-scale circulation types characterized using an existing Self Organizing Map classification. The combined effect of both thermodynamics and dynamics are compared with values expected from the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relation. Changes in the precipitation intensity due to greenhouse gas-forced temperature rise are lower than the expected C–C value. However extreme precipitation changes approach the C–C value for some circulation types. Specifically westerly flows enhance precipitation change across ANZ relative to the C–C rate, particularly over the West Coast. Conversely, northwesterly flows reduce the change over the North Island relative to the C–C value. Moreover, the wet day frequency generally reduces in the ANT scenario relative to NAT, reductions are largest on the West Coast of the South Island for westerly flows. Additionally, the frequency of days with extreme precipitation rises over ANZ for most circulation patterns, except in Northland and for northwesterly flows. This underscores the combined influence of dynamics and thermodynamics in shaping both precipitation intensity and frequency patterns across ANZ.
本研究量化了迄今为止人类活动对新西兰奥特亚罗瓦降水量的影响。研究分析了 "天气@家"(weather@home)区域气候模式实验在两种情景下的大型模拟集合,一种是自然情景(NAT)或反事实情景,即排除人为因素对气候系统造成的变化;另一种是人为情景(ANT)或事实情景。人为强迫对降水的影响是在大尺度环流类型的背景下利用现有的自组织地图分类特征进行分析的。热力学和动力学的综合影响与克劳修斯-克拉皮隆(C-C)关系的预期值进行了比较。温室气体导致的温度上升引起的降水强度变化低于预期的 C-C 值。然而,某些环流类型的极端降水变化接近 C-C 值。具体来说,相对于 C-C 值,西风流增强了整个澳新地区的降水变化,尤其是在西海岸。相反,相对于 C-C 值,西北气流会减少北岛的降水变化。此外,相对于 NAT,ANT 情景下的湿润日频率普遍降低,在南岛西海岸,西风流的降低幅度最大。此外,除北岛和西北气流外,在大多数环流模式下,澳新地区的极端降水日频率都有所上升。这突出表明,动力学和热力学共同影响着整个澳新地区的降水强度和降水频率模式。
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引用次数: 0
The 2022 record-high heat waves over southwestern Europe and their underlying mechanism 2022 年欧洲西南部上空创纪录的高温热浪及其内在机制
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100729
Jeong-Hun Kim , So-Hyun Nam , Maeng-Ki Kim , Roberto Serrano-Notivoli , Ernesto Tejedor
Recently, the intensity and frequency of heat waves (HWs) have been increased worldwide. Particularly in 2022, Europe was severely affected by unprecedented HWs, which caused approximately 61,672 deaths and 11,324 deaths in Europe and Spain, respectively. In this study, we investigate the mechanisms of the HWs in southwestern Europe (SWEU) to identify the differences between typical HWs and the extreme HWs that occurred in 2022. Our results showed that the SWEU events in 2022 were strongly related to robust heat domes that developed in the lower troposphere due to high-pressure anomalies especially during two periods (9–18 June and 8–19 July). Analyses of the energy budget and thermodynamic equation revealed the processes underlying the amplification of the heat domes over SWEU during both periods. We also discovered that abnormal atmospheric blocking in the upper troposphere was closely associated with the amplification of the Gulf Stream SST, which caused an atmospheric circulation pattern favorable for the 2022 SWEU-HWs. This was further confirmed by modeling experiments. Therefore, our results emphasize that a Gulf Stream SST amplification can trigger an atmospheric circulation pattern favorable for extreme HWs in SWEU, enhancing our understanding of the mechanism behind extreme HWs. Finally, our findings will help improving the forecasting of SWEU-HWs on a sub-seasonal time scale, as well as future projections in global climate models.
最近,全球热浪(HWs)的强度和频率都有所增加。特别是在 2022 年,欧洲受到了前所未有的热浪的严重影响,在欧洲和西班牙分别造成约 61 672 人和 11 324 人死亡。在这项研究中,我们调查了欧洲西南部(SWEU)HWs 的机制,以确定典型 HWs 与 2022 年发生的极端 HWs 之间的差异。我们的研究结果表明,2022 年的西南欧高温事件与对流层低层因高压异常而形成的强热穹丘密切相关,尤其是在两个时段(6 月 9 日至 18 日和 7 月 8 日至 19 日)。对能量预算和热力学方程的分析揭示了这两个时段西南太平洋大学上空热穹放大的基本过程。我们还发现,对流层上部的异常大气阻塞与湾流 SST 的放大密切相关,这导致了有利于 2022 年西南欧-HWs 的大气环流模式。模拟实验进一步证实了这一点。因此,我们的研究结果强调了湾流 SST 的放大可以引发有利于西南太平洋极端 HWs 的大气环流模式,从而加深了我们对极端 HWs 背后机理的理解。最后,我们的研究结果将有助于改进西南欧-HWs 在亚季节时间尺度上的预报,以及全球气候模式的未来预测。
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引用次数: 0
The flash droughts across the south-central United States in 2022: Drivers, predictability, and impacts 2022 年美国中南部的暴旱:驱动因素、可预测性和影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100730
Jordan I. Christian , Taylor M. Grace , Benjamin J. Fellman , Daniel F. Mesheske , Stuart G. Edris , Henry O. Olayiwola , Jeffrey B. Basara , Brian A. Fuchs , Jason C. Furtado
A rare subseasonal-to-seasonal phenomenon – two consecutive flash drought events interrupted by a period of recovery – occurred across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri, spanning the summer and early fall of 2022. These flash drought events (the first in June–July, the second in August–September) led to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought conditions via the United States Drought Monitor across much of the region following the first period of rapid drought intensification, and extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought conditions by the end of the second event. A notable driver of both flash drought events included a persistent upper-level ridge either centered over or shifted west and upstream of the flash drought region, leading to broad-scale subsidence and reduced mid-level moisture which acted to limit precipitation development and increase evaporative demand. In addition, several heatwave events developed during the warm season in 2022 and either (1) acted to drive flash drought development via increased evaporative demand or (2) were enhanced by land surface desiccation and land-atmosphere feedbacks following rapid drought intensification. Furthermore, S2S composite forecasts predicted drought development for both events. However, only 20% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development associated with flash drought for the first event and 16% of the ensembles predicted rapid drought development during the second event. This result highlights a key challenge in S2S prediction of rapidly developing drought conditions versus that of more conventional and slower drought development. The ensembles that did predict rapid drought intensification were associated with the forecasting of positive 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the south-central United States (first event) or an amplified wave pattern centered over the west-central United States (second event). Lastly, the compounding effects of two flash droughts in a single warm season led to substantial impacts on agricultural, environmental, and hydrologic sectors across the region.
2022 年夏季和初秋期间,俄克拉荷马州东部、阿肯色州和密苏里州南部出现了罕见的亚季节到季节现象--连续两次闪电干旱事件被一段恢复期打断。这些山洪暴发的干旱事件(第一次在 6-7 月,第二次在 8-9 月)在第一个快速干旱加剧期结束后,通过美国干旱监测,该地区大部分地区出现了严重(D2)和极端(D3)干旱状况,而在第二个干旱事件结束时,出现了极端(D3)和特殊(D4)干旱状况。这两次暴旱事件的一个显著驱动因素是持续的高空海脊,要么位于暴旱区域的中心,要么向西和上游移动,导致大范围下沉和中层水汽减少,从而限制了降水的发展并增加了蒸发需求。此外,2022 年暖季期间还出现了几次热浪事件,这些热浪事件(1)通过增加蒸发需求推动了闪旱的发展,或(2)在干旱迅速加剧后,陆地表面干燥和陆地-大气反馈作用增强了闪旱的发展。此外,S2S 综合预报预测了这两种事件的干旱发展。然而,只有 20% 的集合预测了第一次事件中与闪旱相关的快速干旱发展,16% 的集合预测了第二次事件中的快速干旱发展。这一结果凸显了 S2S 预测快速发展的干旱状况与预测更传统、更缓慢的干旱发展的关键挑战。预测到干旱迅速加剧的集合与预测到美国中南部上空出现正的 500 hPa 位势高度异常(第一次事件)或以美国中西部为中心的波浪模式扩大(第二次事件)有关。最后,在一个暖季发生两次暴旱的复合效应对整个地区的农业、环境和水文部门造成了巨大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China 中国大陆潜在滑坡灾害对社会经济影响的未来变化
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731
Donghuan Li , Youcun Qi , Tianjun Zhou , Wenxia Zhang
Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The potential landslide activities over mainland China are projected to increase over the 21st century. The regional mean increases over mainland China under the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, at the end of the 21st century, are approximately 20.6%, 24.8%, 27.2%, 33.1%, and 46.5%, respectively, compared to present day. Population exposure to potential landslide hazards is projected to increase under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but decline under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios due to population reduction. Meanwhile, economic exposure is expected to rise substantially across mainland China due to the greatly increased GDP. In general, the most populous and economically developed southern China will experience the largest socioeconomic exposure percentage increase among the subregions due to the joint influence of climate change and socioeconomic change. Compared with SSP1-1.9 scenario, the higher emission levels of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 will result in 20.4%, 32.0%, 60.6%, and 125.8% more increases in potential landslide days and 16.2%, 42.9%, 80.3%, and 4.6% less increases in anti-risk capacity (ability to resist landslide risk) in mainland China, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. The southern Tibetan Plateau is projected to experience greater increases in landslide days and decreases in anti-risk capacity than other subregions, if high emission scenarios are selected over SSP1-1.9.
滑坡是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一,对社会经济影响巨大。在此,我们利用 CMIP6 模拟,在 "共享社会经济路径 "和 "代表性浓度路径"(SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5)的五种组合情景下,研究了中国大陆未来由降雨引发的潜在滑坡活动的变化及其社会经济后果。预计 21 世纪中国大陆上空潜在的滑坡活动将会增加。在 SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下,21 世纪末中国大陆的区域平均值与现在相比分别增加了约 20.6%、24.8%、27.2%、33.1% 和 46.5%。预计在 SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 情景下,潜在滑坡灾害对人口的影响将增加,但在 SSP1-1.9 和 SSP1-2.6 情景下,由于人口减少,潜在滑坡灾害对人口的影响将下降。同时,由于 GDP 大幅增加,预计中国大陆各地的经济风险将大幅上升。总体而言,在气候变化和社会经济变化的共同影响下,人口最多、经济最发达的华南将是各分区域中社会经济风险增加比例最大的地区。与 SSP1-1.9 情景相比,SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5 的较高排放水平将导致 21 世纪末中国大陆潜在滑坡日分别增加 20.4%、32.0%、60.6% 和 125.8%,抗风险能力(抵抗滑坡风险的能力)分别减少 16.2%、42.9%、80.3% 和 4.6%。如果在 SSP1-1.9 的基础上选择高排放情景,预计青藏高原南部的滑坡日数将比其他次区域增加更多,抗风险能力将下降更多。
{"title":"Future changes of socioeconomic exposure to potential landslide hazards over mainland China","authors":"Donghuan Li ,&nbsp;Youcun Qi ,&nbsp;Tianjun Zhou ,&nbsp;Wenxia Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2024.100731","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Landslides are among the most destructive natural disasters, having huge socioeconomic impacts. Here, we investigate future changes in potential rainfall-induced landslide activities and their socioeconomic consequences in mainland China using CMIP6 simulations under five combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The potential landslide activities over mainland China are projected to increase over the 21st century. The regional mean increases over mainland China under the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, at the end of the 21st century, are approximately 20.6%, 24.8%, 27.2%, 33.1%, and 46.5%, respectively, compared to present day. Population exposure to potential landslide hazards is projected to increase under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, but decline under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios due to population reduction. Meanwhile, economic exposure is expected to rise substantially across mainland China due to the greatly increased GDP. In general, the most populous and economically developed southern China will experience the largest socioeconomic exposure percentage increase among the subregions due to the joint influence of climate change and socioeconomic change. Compared with SSP1-1.9 scenario, the higher emission levels of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 will result in 20.4%, 32.0%, 60.6%, and 125.8% more increases in potential landslide days and 16.2%, 42.9%, 80.3%, and 4.6% less increases in anti-risk capacity (ability to resist landslide risk) in mainland China, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. The southern Tibetan Plateau is projected to experience greater increases in landslide days and decreases in anti-risk capacity than other subregions, if high emission scenarios are selected over SSP1-1.9.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"46 ","pages":"Article 100731"},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142552518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Downscaling, bias correction, and spatial adjustment of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall in ERA5 using deep learning 利用深度学习对ERA5中的极端热带气旋降雨量进行降尺度、纠偏和空间调整
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100724
Guido Ascenso , Andrea Ficchì , Matteo Giuliani , Enrico Scoccimarro , Andrea Castelletti
Hydrological models that are used to analyse flood risk induced by tropical cyclones often input ERA5 reanalysis data. However, ERA5 precipitation has large systematic biases, especially over heavy precipitation events like Tropical Cyclones, compromising its usefulness in such scenarios. Few studies to date have performed bias correction of ERA5 precipitation and none of them for extreme rainfall induced by tropical cyclones. Additionally, most existing works on bias adjustment focus on adjusting pixel-wise metrics of bias, such as the Mean Squared Error (MSE). However, it is equally important to ensure that the rainfall peaks are correctly located within the rainfall maps, especially if these maps are then used as input to hydrological models. In this paper, we describe a novel machine learning model that addresses both gaps, RA-Ucmpd, based on the popular U-Net model. The key novelty of RA-Ucmpd is its loss function, the compound loss, which optimizes both a pixel-wise bias metric (the MSE) and a spatial verification metric (a modified version of the Fractions Skill Score). Our results show how RA-Ucmpd improves ERA5 in almost all metrics by 3-28%—more than the other models we used for comparison which actually worsen the total rainfall bias of ERA5—at the cost of a slightly increased (3%) error on the magnitude of the peak. We analyse the behaviour of RA-Ucmpd by visualizing accumulated maps of four particularly wet tropical cyclones and by dividing our data according to the Saffir-Simpson scale and to whether they made landfall, and we perform an error analysis to understand under what conditions our model performs best.
用于分析热带气旋引发的洪水风险的水文模型通常输入ERA5再分析数据。然而,ERA5 降水量存在较大的系统偏差,尤其是在热带气旋等强降水事件中,这影响了其在此类情景中的实用性。迄今为止,对ERA5 降水量进行偏差修正的研究很少,而且没有一项研究是针对热带气旋引起的极端降雨的。此外,大多数现有的偏差调整工作都侧重于调整像素偏差指标,如平均平方误差(MSE)。然而,确保降雨峰值在降雨地图中的正确定位同样重要,尤其是当这些地图被用作水文模型的输入时。在本文中,我们介绍了一种新型机器学习模型 RA-Ucmpd,该模型基于流行的 U-Net 模型,可同时解决这两个问题。RA-Ucmpd 的主要创新点在于其损失函数--复合损失,它同时优化了像素偏差指标(MSE)和空间验证指标(分数技能得分的改进版)。我们的结果表明 RA-Ucmpd 在几乎所有指标上都比 ERA5 提高了 3-28%,超过了我们用于比较的其他模型,后者实际上恶化了 ERA5 的总降雨量偏差,但代价是峰值大小误差略有增加(3%)。我们分析了 RA-Ucmpd 的行为,方法是直观显示四个特别潮湿的热带气旋的累积图,并根据萨菲尔-辛普森尺度和是否登陆对数据进行划分,我们还进行了误差分析,以了解我们的模型在什么条件下表现最佳。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Increasing extreme flood risk under future climate change scenarios in South Korea” [Weather Clim. Extrem. 39 (2023) 1–12, 100552] 韩国未来气候变化情景下极端洪水风险增加"[Weather Clim. Extrem.
IF 8 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100726
S. Kim, J.-H. Kwon, J.-S. Om, T. Lee, G. Kim, H. Kim, J.-H. Heo
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引用次数: 0
The 2019–21 drought in southern Madagascar 马达加斯加南部 2019-21 年旱灾
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100723
Rondrotiana Barimalala , Caroline Wainwright , Erik W. Kolstad , Teferi D. Demissie
Two consecutive failed rainy seasons in the southern part of Madagascar in 2019–21 had devastating impacts on the population, including an amplification of the ongoing food insecurity in the area. The drought events were second in severity only to the 1990–92 drought and were estimated in a previous study to have a return period of 135 years. In this study, the physical mechanisms that led to these consecutive drought events are investigated.
We found that the anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that persisted to the south of Madagascar between December 2019 and December 2020 led to a decrease in the transport of moist air over land. These cold SST anomalies were the most negative anomalies in the past four decades and intensified the rainfall deficit resulting from a negative Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD) mode during the rainy season of December 2019 to March 2020 and during December 2020. We also found that the rainfall response to the SST anomaly south of Madagascar was three times greater than that of a canonical SIOD.
A weak Mozambique Channel Trough and a strong Angola low system, on the other hand, modulated the expected above-normal rainfall from a La Niña event in January–February 2021. Our study demonstrates how local factors can modulate the impacts of large-scale drivers, and that both local and global drivers, and their interactions, should be considered when producing seasonal forecasts and advisories, as well as climate change adaptation and mitigation plans for southern Madagascar.
马达加斯加南部地区在 2019-21 年连续两个雨季歉收,对当地居民造成了破坏性影响,包括加剧了该地区当前的粮食不安全状况。这些干旱事件的严重程度仅次于 1990-92 年的干旱,据先前的一项研究估计,其重现期长达 135 年。本研究调查了导致这些连续干旱事件的物理机制。我们发现,2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 12 月期间,马达加斯加南部海面温度(SST)持续异常寒冷,导致陆地湿空气输送减少。这些低温海表温度异常是过去四十年来最负面的异常现象,加剧了 2019 年 12 月至 2020 年 3 月雨季期间和 2020 年 12 月期间亚热带印度洋偶极子(SIOD)负模式导致的降雨不足。我们还发现,马达加斯加以南的降雨量对 SST 异常的响应是典型 SIOD 响应的三倍。另一方面,弱莫桑比克海峡低槽和强安哥拉低气压系统调节了 2021 年 1 月至 2 月拉尼娜事件导致的预期超常降雨量。我们的研究表明,地方因素可以调节大规模驱动因素的影响,在制作马达加斯加南部的季节预报和建议以及气候变化适应和减缓计划时,应同时考虑地方和全球驱动因素及其相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Intrinsic short Marine Heatwaves from the perspective of sea surface temperature and height 从海面温度和高度角度看固有的短海洋热浪
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100725
Yuwei Hu , Xiao Hua Wang , Helen Beggs , Chunzai Wang
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have recently been recognized as extreme climate events considering their devastating impacts on marine ecosystems. Our study explored the spatial and temporal variability of short (duration <10 days) and long MHWs in nine sub-regions around the Australian coastal region using the original (5-day) and an updated longer duration (10-day) criteria for MHW identification based on gap-free Sea Surface Temperature (SST) analyses from 1981 to 2020. By quantitatively investigating the contribution of ocean warming to short MHWs, we could consider most of the short events as background signals of a dynamic ocean surface over the Australian region. The application of the updated definition highlights areas that are more sensitive to local internal forcings, especially over the main flow of the East Australian Current. Furthermore, the Great Barrier Reef exhibit a larger increasing trend of MHW areas after excluding the short events. By numerically and graphically evaluating the relationship between the sea level anomaly (SLA) and SST metrics over two coastal regions of Australia, it is found that longer MHWs exhibiting two variation trends of large SLA metrics are ENSO dominant in the northwest coastal region (NW), and less ENSO-dominant but geographically-impacted in the southeast coastal region (SETS). However, it is possible that most short events in these two regions are a result of local and intrinsic variability or ocean warming of the water columns rather than the remote modulation of climate modes. Moreover, SLA over the 90th percentile, which successfully observed a subsurface MHW event over the NW region in 2008, has the potential to help identify subsurface MHWs, although limited by application area. Further investigation into the applicability of these, or other similar, updates to the MHW definitions may be warranted, to draw a broadly applicable conclusion to benefit detection and prediction of strong sub-surface MHWs impacting commercial and environmental activities.
考虑到海洋热浪对海洋生态系统的破坏性影响,海洋热浪(MHWs)最近被认为是极端气候事件。我们的研究探讨了澳大利亚沿海地区 9 个子区域的短海洋热浪(持续时间为 10 天)和长海洋热浪的时空变异性,采用了基于 1981-2020 年无间隙海洋表面温度(SST)分析的原始(5 天)和更新的更长持续时间(10 天)海洋热浪识别标准。通过定量研究海洋变暖对短时 MHW 的影响,我们可以将大部分短时事件视为澳大利亚地区海洋表面动态的背景信号。更新定义的应用凸显了对本地内部作用力更为敏感的区域,尤其是东澳大利亚洋流的主要流经区域。此外,在剔除短时间事件后,大堡礁的最高海平面上升趋势更大。通过对澳大利亚两个沿岸地区海平面异常和 SST 尺度之间关系的数值和图形评估,发现在西北沿岸地区(NW),ENSO 起主导作用,而在东南沿岸地区(SETS),ENSO 起主导作用较小,但受地理因素影响较大。然而,这两个地区的大多数短临事件可能是本地固有变率或海洋水柱变暖的结果,而不是气候模式的远距离调制。此外,超过第 90 百分位数的 SLA 于 2008 年在西北部地区成功观测到了一次次表层 MHW 事件,虽然受到应用领域的限制,但仍有可能帮助识别次表层 MHW。可能有必要进一步调查这些或其他类似的 MHW 定义更新的适用性,以得出广泛适用的结论,从而有利于探测和预测影响商业和环境活动的强烈次表层 MHW。
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引用次数: 0
Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting 2022 年 CONUS 复合干旱-热浪事件中陆地-大气耦合的贡献及其对预报的影响
IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722
Donghyuck Yoon , Jan-Huey Chen , Eunkyo Seo

Severe compound drought-heatwave events were observed over three regions of the Contiguous United States (CONUS), Northwest (NW), Great Plains (GP), and Northeast (NE) regions, during July and August 2022. In this study, we have found that the developments of these drought-heatwave events were shaped by different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors which are associated with water and energy limitation regimes in these regions. In the NW and GP regions, the surface soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) were coupled through water-limited processes. Heatwaves in these two regions were affected by the decrease of ET and the available SM due to the precipitation deficit. This type of land-atmosphere coupling was especially prominent in the GP. In the NE region, the heatwave governed ET through the increase of potential ET (PET) based on energy-limited coupling, which played a crucial role in the development of drought.

The impacts of the different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors on the predictability of the 13-km Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) were also investigated by checking its 10-day forecasts during the same period. The analysis was particularly focused on the GP and NE regions, where different land-atmosphere coupling behaviors were observed. The model's warm bias in the GP region was associated with the overestimated net radiation, and the bias was further amplified through the water-limited coupling. In the NE region, the PET-related variables, including surface air temperature, influenced the predictability of drought onset by limiting ET through the energy-limited coupling. Based on our findings, this study highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere coupling behaviors and provides a scientific strategy for enhancing the model predictability of compound drought-heatwaves.

2022 年 7 月和 8 月期间,在美国西北部(NW)、大平原(GP)和东北部(NE)三个毗连地区观测到了严重的复合干旱热浪事件。在这项研究中,我们发现这些干旱-热浪事件的发展受不同的陆地-大气耦合行为的影响,而这些耦合行为与这些地区的水和能量限制机制有关。在西北地区和 GP 地区,地表土壤水分(SM)和蒸散(ET)通过水分限制过程耦合。这两个地区的热浪受降水不足导致的蒸散发和可用土壤水分减少的影响。这种陆地-大气耦合在 GP 地区尤为突出。在东北部地区,热浪通过基于能量限制耦合的潜在蒸散发(PET)的增加来控制蒸散发,这对干旱的发展起到了至关重要的作用。通过检查地球物理流体动力学实验室(GFDL)13 千米地-局域高分辨率预报系统(SHiELD)在同一时期的 10 天预报,还研究了不同的陆地-大气耦合行为对其可预测性的影响。分析尤其集中在 GP 和东北地区,因为在这两个地区观测到了不同的陆地-大气耦合行为。该模式在 GP 地区的暖偏差与高估的净辐射有关,并且偏差通过水限制耦合进一步放大。在东北部地区,包括地表气温在内的 PET 相关变量通过能量限制耦合限制蒸散发,从而影响了干旱发生的可预测性。基于我们的研究结果,本研究强调了陆地-大气耦合行为的关键作用,并为提高复合干旱-热浪的模式可预测性提供了科学策略。
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Weather and Climate Extremes
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