Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第5页

Hotter summers, heavier showers: Global warming and its impact on Swiss short-duration rainfall extremes 更热的夏季，更多的阵雨：全球变暖及其对瑞士短时间极端降雨的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100829

Nadav Peleg , Marika Koukoula , Jan Rajczak , Sven Kotlarski , Eleonora Dallan , Francesco Marra

Short-duration extreme rainfall events are the main trigger for natural hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. As a result of climate change, extreme convective summer events are expected to intensify markedly in mountainous regions such as the Swiss Alps, although the magnitude of intensification on a sub-daily basis is uncertain. Here, we quantify potential future changes in Swiss sub-daily extreme rainfall using the physically-based TENAX model, which captures the dependence of extreme rainfall on temperature. An independent evaluation against MeteoSwiss observation-based extreme value analyses shows that TENAX estimates differ by less than 10% at 60% of stations for 10 min and 72% for hourly durations over the 10-year return period. TENAX-estimated rainfall-temperature scaling rates in Switzerland are around 10%

° C

⁻¹ for 10-min extremes and 7%

° C

⁻¹ for hourly durations. Applied with the Klima CH2025 climate projections that are CMIP5-based, results indicate that by the time global warming attains a 3 °C temperature increase compared to present-day conditions, 10-min rainfall return levels could increase by up to 40%, while hourly extremes intensify by approximately 20%. The projected changes exhibit strong spatial variability, with high-altitude regions experiencing greater intensification than lowlands due to stronger rainfall-temperature scaling and an amplified warming rate. Despite an overall reduction in summer rainfall event frequency, extreme events are expected to occur more frequently, with current 100-year return levels projected to shift to 30-year return periods in some regions. These results highlight the growing flood risk in Swiss cities and the increasing threat of rainfall-driven hazards in mountainous areas, underscoring the urgent need for proactive adaptation measures.

短时间极端降雨事件是山洪、泥石流等自然灾害的主要诱因。由于气候变化，夏季极端对流事件预计将在瑞士阿尔卑斯山等山区显著加剧，尽管以次日为基础的增强幅度尚不确定。在这里，我们使用基于物理的TENAX模型量化了瑞士亚日极端降雨的潜在未来变化，该模型捕捉了极端降雨对温度的依赖性。对MeteoSwiss基于观测的极值分析的独立评估表明，TENAX在10年回归期内对60%的站点的10分钟估计误差小于10%，对每小时持续时间的估计误差小于72%。tenax估计瑞士的降雨温度缩放率约为10分钟极端值的10%°C - 1和每小时持续时间的7%°C - 1。应用基于cmip5的Klima CH2025气候预估，结果表明，与当前条件相比，当全球变暖达到3°C时，10分钟降雨回归水平可能增加多达40%，而每小时极端事件可能增加约20%。预估的变化表现出强烈的空间变异性，由于更强的降雨温度尺度和放大的升温速率，高海拔地区比低地经历更大的强化。尽管夏季降雨事件的频率总体上有所减少，但极端事件预计将更加频繁地发生，在一些地区，目前的百年一遇水平预计将转变为30年一次。这些结果凸显了瑞士城市日益增长的洪水风险和山区降雨灾害日益增加的威胁，强调了采取主动适应措施的迫切需要。

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引用次数: 0

From mild to extreme heatwaves: Examining trends in North America 从温和到极端热浪：审视北美的趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100831

Élise Comeau , Alejandro Di Luca , Megan Kirchmeier-Young

Extreme heat is associated with negative consequences. Previous research has shown an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme heat in the 20th and early 21st centuries in most of North America. Similar trends are expected in the next decades. These increases are primarily driven by a shift of the temperature distribution towards warmer temperatures. Despite this rich literature, few studies have considered how past trends of milder heatwaves may differ from those of more extreme heatwaves. Here we quantify recent intensity and duration trends of North American heatwaves according to their severity, a novel metric which measures the intensity of a heatwave relative to other local contemporaneous heatwaves. We measure heatwave intensity using three different metrics (cumulative, average and maximum). These metrics are based on the anomaly of the daily maximum temperature relative to the local non-stationary 90th percentile. Heatwaves are then categorized as either mild, moderate or extreme in their severity. Our findings indicate that heatwave temperatures have been increasing in most of North America between 1940 and 2019 for every season. However, heatwave temperature anomalies have remained stable over this same period. Additionally, higher heatwave severity is linked to less noisy intensity trends. This cannot be explained solely by changes in the mean of the temperature distribution over time. Our results have important implications for the current estimation of heatwave intensity trends and suggest that the impact of their severity should be considered.

极端高温与负面后果有关。先前的研究表明，在20世纪和21世纪初，北美大部分地区极端高温的频率和强度都有所增加。预计未来几十年也会出现类似的趋势。这些增加主要是由温度分布向更高温度的转变所驱动的。尽管有丰富的文献，但很少有研究考虑到过去温和热浪的趋势与更极端热浪的趋势有何不同。在这里，我们根据热浪的严重程度量化了北美热浪的近期强度和持续时间趋势，这是一种衡量热浪相对于其他当地同期热浪强度的新指标。我们使用三种不同的指标（累积、平均和最大值）来测量热浪强度。这些指标是基于日最高温度相对于当地非平稳第90百分位数的异常。热浪的严重程度被分为轻度、中度和极端。我们的研究结果表明，从1940年到2019年，北美大部分地区每个季节的热浪温度都在上升。然而，热浪温度异常在同一时期保持稳定。此外，热浪的严重程度越高，噪声强度的趋势也越弱。这不能仅仅用温度分布随时间的平均值的变化来解释。我们的研究结果对当前估计热浪强度趋势具有重要意义，并建议应考虑其严重程度的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Human influence on the unprecedented 2022 extreme dragon boat water event in South China: Insights from historical and projected perspectives 人类对2022年中国南方前所未有的极端龙舟水事件的影响：从历史和预测的角度看

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100830

Shen'ao Li, Hui Cai, Wenxuan Zhang, Wenjun Liang, Kaixi Wang, Dong Chen, Shaobo Qiao, Xian Zhu

During May–June 2022, South China encountered an unprecedented extreme dragon boat water event (2022 EDBWE), characterized by persistent heavy precipitation. The maximum 31-day cumulative precipitation (Rx31day) from May 21 to June 20, was anomalously 74 % higher than the historical average, breaking previous records and resulting in substantial socioeconomic damage and loss of life. Nevertheless, the extent to which human-induced climate change influenced the occurrence of the 2022 EDBWE, as well as its implications for the future likelihood of analogous events under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, remains inadequately quantified. This study aims to address these uncertainties by employing data from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP) within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We evaluate the effect of anthropogenic forcing on extreme precipitation similar to the 2022 EDBWE both in historical context and under future projections for South China. The results indicate that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of the event similar to the 2022 EDBWE by approximately 64 % (90 % confidence interval: 35 % to +90 %). Specifically, the greenhouse gas-only (GHG) forcing has raised the probability by +66 % (+10 % to +91 %), while aerosol-only (AER) forcing has reduced the probability by −28 % (−564 % to +71 %). Furthermore, under SSP scenarios—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5—the likelihood of similar events rises significantly. By the end of the 21st century, the probability of an event akin to the 2022 EDBWE is projected to be about 11 times greater under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) compared to historical climate conditions. This study offers crucial insights for designing effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change, especially in regions prone to extreme precipitation events.

2022年5 - 6月，华南地区遭遇了一次前所未有的极端龙舟水事件（2022 EDBWE），其特征是持续强降水。5月21日至6月20日的最大31天累积降水（rx31天）比历史平均水平异常高出74%，打破了以往的记录，造成了重大的社会经济损失和生命损失。然而，人类引起的气候变化对2022年EDBWE发生的影响程度，以及它对不同共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下类似事件未来可能性的影响，仍然没有充分量化。本研究旨在利用耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）中的探测与归因模式比对项目（DAMIP）和情景模式比对项目（SIMIP）的数据来解决这些不确定性。在历史背景和未来预测下，我们评估了与2022年EDBWE相似的人为强迫对中国南方极端降水的影响。结果表明，人为强迫使类似2022年EDBWE事件的概率增加了约64%（90%置信区间：35%至+ 90%）。具体而言，仅温室气体（GHG）强迫将概率提高了66%(+ 10%至+ 91%)，而仅气溶胶（AER）强迫将概率降低了28%（- 564%至+ 71%）。此外，在SSP情景（ssp1 -2.6、SSP2-4.5和ssp5 -8.5）下，类似事件发生的可能性显著上升。到21世纪末，在高排放情景（SSP5-8.5）下，与历史气候条件相比，预计类似2022年EDBWE事件的概率将高出约11倍。这项研究为设计有效的策略来减缓和适应气候变化提供了重要的见解，特别是在容易发生极端降水事件的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Conditional attribution of cold extremes in Canada: The role of atmospheric circulation in a changing climate 加拿大极端寒冷的条件归因：大气环流在气候变化中的作用

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100826

Yongxiao Liang, Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Bin Yu

This study examines the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, specifically the Pacific-North American (PNA), Asian-Bering-North American (ABNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate indices, on the likelihood of cold extremes across Canada, utilizing ERA5 data and CMIP6 model simulations. The analysis reveals that PNA is closely linked to cold anomalies in western Canada, ABNA influences the west and central regions, and NAO impacts eastern Canada. A decrease in the likelihood of cold extremes is attributed to human-induced climate change, using both unconditional event attribution and event attribution conditioned on the observed circulation patterns. Under similar atmospheric circulation patterns as observed, human-induced climate change reduced the likelihood of recent cold extremes by 3–10 times across Canadian regions in the current climate compared to the pre-industrial climate. Under both the current and pre-industrial climates, negative PNA/ABNA phases and positive NAO phases can increase the likelihood of regular cold extremes, with synergies between indices significantly amplifying risks. Conversely, the opposite phases can reinforce the climate signal, further reducing the probability of cold extremes. These findings highlight the critical role of natural variability in cold extreme dynamics, offering valuable insights for improved climate prediction, attribution, and regional adaptation strategies in Canada.

本研究利用ERA5数据和CMIP6模式模拟，研究了大尺度大气环流模式，特别是太平洋-北美（PNA）、亚洲-白令-北美（ABNA）和北大西洋涛动（NAO）气候指数对加拿大极端寒冷可能性的影响。分析表明，PNA与加拿大西部的冷异常密切相关，ABNA影响西部和中部地区，NAO影响加拿大东部地区。利用无条件事件归因和以观测到的环流模式为条件的事件归因，极端寒冷发生的可能性的降低可归因于人为引起的气候变化。在观测到的类似大气环流模式下，与工业化前气候相比，人类引起的气候变化使加拿大地区当前气候中最近极端寒冷的可能性降低了3-10倍。在当前和工业化前气候条件下，负的PNA/ABNA阶段和正的NAO阶段都增加了常规极端寒冷发生的可能性，且指数之间的协同效应显著放大了风险。相反，相反的相位可以强化气候信号，进一步降低极端寒冷的可能性。这些发现强调了自然变率在寒冷极端动态中的关键作用，为改进加拿大的气候预测、归因和区域适应策略提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The relative contribution of physical processes leading the May 2024 heat wave in Cuba using a novel temperature anomaly analysis 利用一种新的温度异常分析分析导致2024年5月古巴热浪的物理过程的相对贡献

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100827

Albenis Pérez-Alarcón , Rogert Sorí , Milica Stojanovic , Daniela Lobaina-Castillo , Beatriz Velázquez-Zaldivar , Ricardo M. Trigo , Raquel Nieto , Luis Gimeno

Several weather stations reported record-breaking air maximum temperatures in May 2024 in Cuba. While the general mechanisms driving heat waves (HWs) in this region are known, the relative contribution of adiabatic, diabatic, and advective processes in causing the near-surface temperature anomalies (T′) remains unclear. Addressing this knowledge gap, this study examines the driver mechanisms of these abnormally high temperatures and quantifies the contributions of these physical processes. Unlike previous studies that often focused on individual processes, we applied a novel T′ decomposition and source analysis approach along air parcel backward trajectories to achieve this goal. Results show that most of the Cuban territory was under HW conditions, particularly the central and western regions, which reported T′ reaching 3–4 °C (considering the 1991–2020 average). The T′ decomposition framework revealed the local-origin sources for T'. Beneath clear skies, subsidence and increased insolation related to high pressures on the surface and high geopotential centres in the lower and middle atmosphere favoured adiabatic warming as the primary mechanism for rising temperatures, followed by advective processes with a weak contribution. Meanwhile, diabatic processes negatively contributed. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the drivers' mechanisms of HWs in Cuba by quantitatively corroborating the importance of local warming processes and providing a guide for examining such extremes in the context of global warming.

几个气象站报告了古巴2024年5月破纪录的最高气温。虽然该地区驱动热浪（HWs）的一般机制是已知的，但绝热过程、绝热过程和平流过程在引起近地表温度异常（T’）中的相对贡献仍不清楚。为了解决这一知识差距，本研究考察了这些异常高温的驱动机制，并量化了这些物理过程的贡献。与以往的研究不同，我们采用了一种新颖的T′分解和源分析方法，沿着空气包裹的反向轨迹来实现这一目标。结果表明，古巴大部分领土处于高温条件下，特别是中部和西部地区，报告温度达到3-4°C（考虑到1991-2020年的平均值）。T′分解框架揭示了T′的本地来源。在晴朗的天空下，与地面高压和低层和中层高位势中心相关的沉降和日晒增加有利于绝热变暖，这是温度上升的主要机制，其次是平流过程，贡献较小。同时，绝热过程负贡献。总的来说，这项研究通过定量地证实了当地变暖过程的重要性，并为在全球变暖的背景下检查这些极端事件提供了指导，增强了我们对古巴HWs驱动机制的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Climatology and trends of severe storm environments in subtropical South America 南美亚热带强风暴环境的气候学和趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100820

Letícia de Oliveira dos Santos , John T. Allen , Ernani L. Nascimento

The assessment of trends in severe storm activity in South America is hampered by the lack of local databases of long-term severe weather reports. To address this limitation, a regional proxy developed to characterize South American severe storm environments (SEV) is applied to hourly data from ERA5 reanalysis over subtropical South America from 1980 to 2021. Regions of frequent SEV conditions were confirmed in the Andes foothills and Sierras de Córdoba in west-central Argentina, as well as in the Argentina–Brazil–Paraguay (ABP) triple border. Annual trends reveal a decrease in SEV conditions for the Argentinean hotspots and in central Brazil, primarily attributed to a reduction in low-level moisture, which leads to less CAPE. Seasonal trends are also negative in the SEV hotspots in west-central Argentina, but positive trends are found across the Argentina–Uruguay border during summer and near the ABP triple border region during spring. These positive seasonal trends are mainly driven by enhanced deep-layer wind shear.

由于缺乏长期恶劣天气报告的当地数据库，对南美洲强风暴活动趋势的评估受到阻碍。为了解决这一限制，开发了一个表征南美强风暴环境（SEV）的区域代理，将其应用于1980年至2021年南美副热带地区ERA5再分析的每小时数据。在阿根廷中西部的安第斯山麓和Córdoba山脉以及阿根廷-巴西-巴拉圭（ABP）三国边界地区，SEV条件频繁发生。年度趋势显示，阿根廷热点地区和巴西中部的SEV条件减少，主要是由于低层水分减少，导致CAPE减少。在阿根廷中西部的SEV热点地区，季节性趋势也是负的，但在夏季阿根廷-乌拉圭边境和春季ABP三重边境地区附近发现了正趋势。这些正的季节趋势主要是由增强的深层风切变驱动的。

引用次数: 0

A novel hybrid framework of high-resolution flood susceptibility mapping in ungauged mountainous regions 未测量山区高分辨率洪水易感性制图的新型混合框架

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100822

Kai Li, Linmao Guo, Genxu Wang, Jihui Gao, Jiapei Ma, Jinlong Li, Peng Huang, Biying Zhai, Xiangyang Sun

Flood susceptibility mapping in mountainous regions remains a critical tool for mitigating escalating flood risks in the context of climate change. However, its accuracy is constrained by data scarcity of flood inventory maps and uncertainties in flood susceptibility mapping. This study addresses these gaps by introducing a novel hybrid framework that integrates a physically based Topography-based Subsurface Storm Flow (Top-SSF) model, a terrain-processed Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) model, and Random Forest (RF) model to achieve high-resolution (15 m) flood susceptibility mapping. Trained and tested on data from 80 gauged catchments, the hybrid framework demonstrated excellent performance, with training and test AUC of 0.995 and 0.992, respectively. Its robustness and applicability were subsequently validated against two independent historical flood datasets spanning 2000–2024, yielding high AUC values of 0.895 and 0.969, respectively. Sensitivity analysis identified slope, Topographic Position Index (TPI), and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) as key drivers, collectively contributing 80.46 % to flood susceptibility. Finally, we used the hybrid framework to produce the first high-resolution flood susceptibility map for the Southwest Mountainous Region of China, with potential to significantly enhance early warning systems and improve flood management effectiveness.

在气候变化的背景下，山区洪水易感性地图仍然是缓解不断升级的洪水风险的重要工具。但其精度受到洪水库存量图数据稀缺性和洪水易感度图不确定性的制约。本研究通过引入一种新的混合框架来解决这些差距，该框架集成了基于物理的基于地形的地下风暴流（Top-SSF）模型、地形处理的比最近排水高度（HAND）模型和随机森林（RF）模型，以实现高分辨率（15米）洪水易感性映射。对80个计量流域的数据进行训练和测试，混合框架表现出优异的性能，训练和测试AUC分别为0.995和0.992。随后，在2000-2024年两个独立的历史洪水数据集上验证了其鲁棒性和适用性，分别获得了0.895和0.969的高AUC值。敏感性分析表明，坡度、地形位置指数（TPI）和地形湿度指数（TWI）是主要驱动因素，对洪涝易感性的贡献率为80.46%。最后，我们利用混合框架绘制了中国西南山区的第一张高分辨率洪水易感性图，具有显著增强预警系统和提高洪水管理效率的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation over pan-Arctic land driven by anthropogenic influences 由人为影响驱动的泛北极陆地极端温度和降水的变化

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100825

Yuxiang Yang , Ting Wei , Bing Chen

In an increasingly warmer and wetter Arctic, the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events have risen, but there is still a lack of comprehensive reports of extreme events in the Arctic over the past few decades, and little is known about the anthropogenic influences on extreme events in the Arctic. In this study, we first show that the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models effectively capture the climatological patterns of extreme temperature and precipitation events. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) results are better than those of most of the individual models. Then the long-term trends of simulations and reanalysis indicate that the pan-Arctic region experienced a significant increase in extreme warm events (intensity, frequency and duration) and extreme precipitation events and a significant decrease in extreme cold events (intensity, frequency and duration) during the period of 1960–2014. Finally, attribution analysis using regularized optimal fingerprinting (ROF) indicates that long-term changes in temperature and precipitation extremes across the pan-Arctic land are driven by anthropogenic impacts. Greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is the primary contributor, accounting for 98 %–126 % of the trends across most extreme indices except for individual percentile-based indices. This effect is partially offset by anthropogenic aerosols (−18 %–0 %), while the influence of natural forcing is negligible. Our findings provide clear evidence that human activities are the primary driver of extreme temperature and precipitation over pan-Arctic land.

在日益温暖和湿润的北极，极端气候事件的强度和频率有所上升，但在过去几十年里，仍然缺乏对北极极端事件的全面报道，对北极极端事件的人为影响知之甚少。在本研究中，我们首先证明了耦合模式比对项目第6阶段（CMIP6）模式有效地捕获了极端温度和降水事件的气候模式。多模式集合平均（MME）结果优于大多数单个模型的结果。模拟和再分析的长期趋势表明，1960—2014年，泛北极地区极端温暖事件（强度、频率和持续时间）和极端降水事件显著增加，极端寒冷事件（强度、频率和持续时间）显著减少。最后，利用正则化最优指纹（ROF）归因分析表明，泛北极地区极端温度和极端降水的长期变化是由人为影响驱动的。温室气体（GHG）强迫是主要贡献者，除个别百分位数指数外，在大多数极端指数中占98% - 126%的趋势。这种影响被人为气溶胶部分抵消（- 18% - 0%），而自然强迫的影响可以忽略不计。我们的发现提供了明确的证据，表明人类活动是泛北极地区极端温度和降水的主要驱动因素。

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引用次数: 0

More active and severe heatwaves in the Northern Hemisphere during La Niña developing summers La Niña发展中的夏季期间北半球更活跃和严重的热浪

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100824

Shih-How Lo, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Ya-Hui Chang, Hsin-Chien Liang

Global warming has significantly increased the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in the summertime Northern Hemisphere. However, the relative contributions of El Niño and La Niña to heatwave characteristics are still inadequately understood. This study investigates this relationship by removing the global warming trend to isolate the effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on heatwave dynamics. Our results show that heatwave scale and intensity are notably higher during La Niña-developing summers, with approximately 1.5 times greater intensity and affected area of heatwave events compared to El Niño-developing summers. Mechanistic analysis reveals that La Niña strengthens atmospheric conditions favorable for the occurrence of heatwaves. Furthermore, our analysis of the recent 2023 and 2024 boreal summers, after adjusting for global warming influences, confirms that the developing La Niña pattern in the 2024 boreal summer produced more extreme heatwave events. This study shows a clear link between ENSO phases and extreme heatwaves, thereby providing insights into the potential predictability of such events.

全球变暖显著增加了北半球夏季热浪的频率和强度。然而，El Niño和La Niña对热浪特征的相对贡献仍不充分了解。本研究通过去除全球变暖趋势来分离El Niño-Southern涛动（ENSO）对热浪动力学的影响来研究这种关系。结果表明，La Niña-developing夏季的热浪规模和强度明显高于El Niño-developing夏季，热浪事件的强度和影响范围约为El Niño-developing夏季的1.5倍。机理分析表明，La Niña增强了有利于热浪发生的大气条件。此外，我们对最近2023年和2024年北方夏季的分析，在调整了全球变暖的影响后，证实了2024年北方夏季La Niña模式的发展产生了更多的极端热浪事件。这项研究显示了ENSO阶段与极端热浪之间的明确联系，从而为此类事件的潜在可预测性提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Improving marine heatwave simulations through realistic Kuroshio representation in a high-resolution dynamical downscaling ensemble 通过高分辨率动态降尺度集合中的真实黑潮表示改进海洋热浪模拟

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100823

Seok-Geun Oh , Kyung-Geun Lim , Seok-Woo Son , Yang-Ki Cho

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), marked by extended periods of unusually warm seawater, significantly impact marine ecosystems and human communities. They have notably increased in the recent decades especially in the Northwest Pacific, a complex coastal region rich in biodiversity and economic activities. To develop effective policies for sustainable and resilient marine ecosystems in this region, high-resolution and reliable ocean climate information is essential. In this study, we simulate the long-term (1982–2014) North Pacific ocean climate using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) driven by eight relatively low-resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models through dynamical downscaling. The ensemble median of eight ROMS simulations reduces warm biases of CMIP6 sea surface temperature by 20–69 %. It also improves the spatio-temporal variation of MHW properties, with up to 80–97 % improvement in winter MHW frequency in the Northwest Pacific. This improvement is attributed to a more realistic representation of the Kuroshio and its extension, which increases warm water advection from lower latitudes. This result highlights the importance of high-resolution ocean modeling in providing reliable ocean climate productions, especially for local extreme ocean events strongly influenced by regional ocean circulations in future climate projections.

海洋热浪（MHWs）以长时间的海水异常温暖为特征，对海洋生态系统和人类社区产生重大影响。近几十年来，它们显著增加，特别是在西北太平洋，这是一个生物多样性丰富、经济活动丰富的复杂沿海地区。要为该地区可持续和有弹性的海洋生态系统制定有效的政策，高分辨率和可靠的海洋气候信息至关重要。本研究利用高分辨率区域海洋模拟系统（ROMS），通过动力降尺度模拟了北太平洋长期（1982-2014）气候。该系统由8个相对低分辨率的耦合模式比对项目6 （CMIP6）模式驱动。8个ROMS模拟的集合中值将CMIP6海表温度的暖偏差降低了20 - 69%。它还改善了西北太平洋冬季强震频率的时空变化，使其频率提高了80 - 97%。这种改善归因于对黑潮及其延伸的更真实的描述，它增加了来自低纬度的暖流平流。这一结果强调了高分辨率海洋模拟在提供可靠的海洋气候产品方面的重要性，特别是在未来气候预测中对受区域海洋环流强烈影响的局部极端海洋事件。

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引用次数: 0