Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Quantifying the spatial extent and attenuation of lake thermal regulation at diurnal scales under extreme heat","authors":"Zikang Xing ,&nbsp;Yunliang Li ,&nbsp;Yufeng Dai ,&nbsp;Jianhui Wei ,&nbsp;Miaomiao Ma ,&nbsp;Xuejun Zhang ,&nbsp;Hui Gao ,&nbsp;Harald Kunstmann","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100847","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Lakes worldwide are experiencing intensifying extreme heat, with escalating ecological impacts. Despite lakes' role as thermal buffers to modulate air temperature is well-documented, the spatial propagation dynamics of lake effects remain poorly understood due to complex interactions of lake-atmosphere. This study proposes a synergistic WRF modeling and directional buffer analysis framework to investigate the spatial propagation dynamics and underlying physical mechanisms of lake-induced thermal regulation during extreme heat, focusing on Poyang Lake, China's largest freshwater lake. The results demonstrate a pronounced diurnal asymmetry in lake-induced thermal effects, with distinct spatial propagation characteristics between daytime and nighttime periods. Daytime cooling exhibits an intensity of −1.16 °C, with its influence confined within a 40 km radius, showing a relatively rapid attenuation rate of 0.28 °C per 10 km. In contrast, nighttime warming (+0.97 °C) propagates 1.75 times farther than its daytime counterpart, extending up to 70 km downwind while maintaining a slower attenuation rate of 0.13 °C per 10 km. Directional analysis reveals north-oriented propagation of lake thermal effects, influenced by prevailing southerly winds and lake-land breeze. Vertical profile analysis reveals distinct altitudinal penetration of lake-induced thermal effects, with daytime influences confined below 900 hPa while nighttime impacts extend up to 700 hPa. Daytime cooling extent is limited by turbulent mixing, whereas nighttime warming is enhanced by stable air conditioning and advective transport. The study underscores the role of lake-atmosphere interactions in mitigating regional climate extremes, providing critical insights for nature-based heat adaptation strategies in lake-rich regions. These findings advance the understanding of inland water bodies as active climate regulators under anthropogenic warming.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100847"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145785291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to ‘Human-induced climate change increased 2021–2022 drought severity in horn of Africa’[Weather and Climate Extremes Volume 47, March 2025, 100745]","authors":"Joyce Kimutai, Clair Barnes, Mariam Zachariah, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Izidine Pinto, Piotr Wolski, Gerbrand Koren, Gabriel Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Lisa Thalheimer, Cheikh Kane, Emmanuel Raju, Friederike E.L. Otto","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100866","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100866","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147334497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Multi-scale analysis of the extreme April 2023 ice storm over eastern Canada","authors":"Julie M. Thériault, John R. Gyakum, Yeechian Low, Mathieu Lachapelle, Juliann Wray, Hadleigh D. Thompson, Sujan Basnet, Margaux Girouard","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2026.100869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100869","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":8.0,"publicationDate":"2026-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147279921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Hotter summers, heavier showers: Global warming and its impact on Swiss short-duration rainfall extremes","authors":"Nadav Peleg ,&nbsp;Marika Koukoula ,&nbsp;Jan Rajczak ,&nbsp;Sven Kotlarski ,&nbsp;Eleonora Dallan ,&nbsp;Francesco Marra","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100829","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100829","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Short-duration extreme rainfall events are the main trigger for natural hazards such as flash floods and debris flows. As a result of climate change, extreme convective summer events are expected to intensify markedly in mountainous regions such as the Swiss Alps, although the magnitude of intensification on a sub-daily basis is uncertain. Here, we quantify potential future changes in Swiss sub-daily extreme rainfall using the physically-based TENAX model, which captures the dependence of extreme rainfall on temperature. An independent evaluation against MeteoSwiss observation-based extreme value analyses shows that TENAX estimates differ by less than 10% at 60% of stations for 10 min and 72% for hourly durations over the 10-year return period. TENAX-estimated rainfall-temperature scaling rates in Switzerland are around 10% <span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span> ⁻¹ for 10-min extremes and 7% <span><math><mrow><mo>°</mo><mi>C</mi></mrow></math></span> ⁻¹ for hourly durations. Applied with the Klima CH2025 climate projections that are CMIP5-based, results indicate that by the time global warming attains a 3 °C temperature increase compared to present-day conditions, 10-min rainfall return levels could increase by up to 40%, while hourly extremes intensify by approximately 20%. The projected changes exhibit strong spatial variability, with high-altitude regions experiencing greater intensification than lowlands due to stronger rainfall-temperature scaling and an amplified warming rate. Despite an overall reduction in summer rainfall event frequency, extreme events are expected to occur more frequently, with current 100-year return levels projected to shift to 30-year return periods in some regions. These results highlight the growing flood risk in Swiss cities and the increasing threat of rainfall-driven hazards in mountainous areas, underscoring the urgent need for proactive adaptation measures.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100829"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145519530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of climate change on extreme weather indices in Ecuadorian cities: A socioeconomic analysis","authors":"Diego Portalanza ,&nbsp;Malena Torres-Ulloa ,&nbsp;Eduardo Alava ,&nbsp;Jussen Facuy ,&nbsp;Cristian Zuluaga ,&nbsp;Rina Bucaram ,&nbsp;Angelica Durigon ,&nbsp;Simone Ferraz","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100810","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100810","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change poses a significant threat to Ecuador, a nation characterized by diverse climates and geographical features. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events and socioeconomic variables across nine key Ecuadorian cities using the RegCM4 regional climate model and the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI). The analysis includes historical trends and future projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three extreme climatic indices: Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Cold Nights (TN10p), and Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI). Our findings indicate a consistent increase in CDD and WSDI, with significant decreases in TN10p across all cities over the past four decades, which are projected to continue under future climate scenarios. A Random Forest model was employed to explore the socio-economic impacts by predicting future changes in GRDI, highlighting how urban and rural deprivation might evolve in response to climatic changes. The results underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies to address the unique vulnerabilities of each city and emphasize the critical role of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) in mitigating climate change impacts. This study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders, emphasizing the urgency of integrating climate resilience into urban development to ensure sustainable futures for urban centers in Ecuador.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100810"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145268076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dissimilar global record-breaking heatwave exposure driven by divergent population projections within shared socioeconomic pathways","authors":"Leibin Wang ,&nbsp;Robert V. Rohli ,&nbsp;Qigen Lin ,&nbsp;Yanzhao Zhou ,&nbsp;Siyan Dong ,&nbsp;Shikai Song ,&nbsp;Qiang Liu ,&nbsp;Xiaodong Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100838","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100838","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exposure to record-breaking heatwaves represents a significant and growing challenge for human health and societal well-being in a changing climate. Comprehending the risks of future exposure to record-breaking heatwaves is vital for devising effective mitigation strategies. However, population data, a key determinant in projecting future exposure risks, has rarely been scrutinized for the uncertainty it introduces into these projections. This study investigates population exposure risks to record-breaking heatwaves from 2020 to 2 100 using four population datasets (ECNU, Lund, NASA SEDAC, and Tsinghua) under various IPCC AR6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs: 1–2.6, 2–4.5, 3–7.0, and 5–8.5). Results indicate that by the 2090s, approximately 0.9 billion, 2 billion, 4.8 billion, and 4 billion people per year will be exposed to record-breaking heatwaves under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, accounting for about 10 %, 21 %, 42 %, and 50 % of the total population, respectively. Key risk areas include East Asia, South Asia, Western and Central Europe, the Mediterranean coast, West and East Africa, and the Northeastern United States. Our results also demonstrate good consistency in global population estimates across the datasets under different SSPs, except for Lund, which tends to predict a higher global population than the other datasets by about 8 % in SSP2 and SSP3. The Kappa test results reveal that, in the context of global population distribution, while the datasets of ECNU and Tsinghua, as well as Lund and Tsinghua, display a strong degree of spatial consistency, other dataset combinations show only a moderate level of agreement. Notably, at the subcontinental level, significant disparities emerge in the projected population sizes and distributions across different population projections, and over time, this gap is widening. This will have a significant impact on the estimation of future population exposure. For example, in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes and the Australian region, the ECNU dataset forecasts a higher population growth rate than the other datasets. Subsequently, a similar trend is observed in the projections of population exposure to record-breaking heatwaves. These findings highlight the variability in regional risk projections across different population datasets, providing valuable insights for future population-related risk assessments and informing targeted mitigation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100838"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Catchment scale changes to rainfall intermittency across Australia","authors":"Steven Thomas ,&nbsp;Conrad Wasko ,&nbsp;Danlu Guo ,&nbsp;Ulrike Bende-Michl ,&nbsp;Murray Peel","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100819","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100819","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Hydroclimatic variability at the catchment scale modulates spatiotemporal patterns of water availability, potentially inducing hydrological extremes such as flooding and drought. These events alter streamflow and pose significant challenges for water resources management, ultimately impacting local ecosystems and communities. To understand the changes in hydroclimatic variability we examine the patterns of rainfall intermittency using aggregated catchment average rainfall. 467 Hydrological Reference Stations (HRS) catchments are used with data spanning from 1950 to 2022 across the Australian continent. We investigate changes in intermittency characteristics such as spell duration, frequency and intensity at the annual and seasonal scale. There is a clear trend towards an increase in rainfall intermittency with an increase in the number of both wet and dry spells per year across Australia. Wet spells are becoming shorter across 80 % of catchments, with an increase in the number of dry days per year. Despite this increase in dry days, there are no robust trends for changes in dry spell length. Catchments with drying trends are typically in southern and eastern Australia, whilst the catchments in northern and northwestern Australia exhibit wetting trends. This wetting trend comes from fewer dry days and increases in both annual rainfall totals and rainfall intensity during wet spells. We find that the trends in the seasonal scale are regionally dependent and align with changes in the large-scale drivers of regional rainfall dynamics. In the south, winter rainfall and wet spells are the most impacted, whereas in the north, it is the summer monsoon that is most impacted by these trends. Our results show rainfall intermittency has increased in recent decades, suggesting that intermittency could potentially continue to change into the future. These results also highlight the need to investigate wet and dry spells concurrently to form a foundational understanding of how rainfall intermittency dynamics are changing. We conclude that changes in rainfall intermittency across Australian catchments have the potential to impact water resources management and need to be considered in future planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100819"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416541","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation and projection of extreme rainfall from a large ensemble of high–resolution regional climate models in Australia","authors":"Lalani Jayaweera ,&nbsp;Conrad Wasko ,&nbsp;Rory Nathan ,&nbsp;Jozef Syktus ,&nbsp;Rohan Eccles","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Incorporating climate change into intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves is broadly conducted using either a climate model simulation–based approach or a covariate–based approach. However, as of now, there has been no research comparing these two approaches in the context of rainfall IDF derivation under climate change. To this end, this study evaluates the 1–h annual rainfall maxima from an ensemble of 60 CORDEX–CMIP6 simulations using a high–resolution regional climate model, the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, for Australia. We quantify rainfall changes for the near (2041–2070) and far (2071–2100) future compared to a reference period (1961–1990) across various durations and Annual Exceedance Probabilities (AEPs) under three emissions scenarios for 39 locations across Australia. We then compare these projections with covariate–based frequency model projections. The 1–h extreme (1 in 100 AEP) hindcast event shows a negative bias relative to observations, with a wide degree of variability across the ensemble. Projected changes for a high emissions scenario with a 3°C of global temperature increase show a median increase of 33.9% for 1–h and 18.9% for 1–day extreme events by the end of the century. Additionally, the reference 1 in 100 AEP event is projected to be 2.3 and 1.6 times more frequent for the 1–h and 1–day durations, respectively. Projections also indicated extreme rainfall increases at the rate of 8.7%°C⁻¹, which exceeds Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling for 1–h duration events, and nearly equal CC scaling for longer 1–day durations. Covariate–based projections indicated larger quantile increases for 1–h events with no change for 1–day events. Regional downscaling provides robust evidence for extreme rainfall changes despite uncertainties.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100818"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climatology and trends of severe storm environments in subtropical South America","authors":"Letícia de Oliveira dos Santos ,&nbsp;John T. Allen ,&nbsp;Ernani L. Nascimento","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100820","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100820","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The assessment of trends in severe storm activity in South America is hampered by the lack of local databases of long-term severe weather reports. To address this limitation, a regional proxy developed to characterize South American severe storm environments (SEV) is applied to hourly data from ERA5 reanalysis over subtropical South America from 1980 to 2021. Regions of frequent SEV conditions were confirmed in the Andes foothills and Sierras de Córdoba in west-central Argentina, as well as in the Argentina–Brazil–Paraguay (ABP) triple border. Annual trends reveal a decrease in SEV conditions for the Argentinean hotspots and in central Brazil, primarily attributed to a reduction in low-level moisture, which leads to less CAPE. Seasonal trends are also negative in the SEV hotspots in west-central Argentina, but positive trends are found across the Argentina–Uruguay border during summer and near the ABP triple border region during spring. These positive seasonal trends are mainly driven by enhanced deep-layer wind shear.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100820"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145412263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating tornado occurrence and tornado wind hazard in China","authors":"Y.X. Liu ,&nbsp;Y. Zhang ,&nbsp;H.P. Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tornadoes can potentially damage structures and cause fatalities. Although tornado occurrence is often observed in China's mainland, a systematic development of a comprehensive catalogue that forms the basis for tornado hazard assessment and mapping was not available. In the present study, a tornado catalogue from 1949 to 2023 over China's mainland was compiled based on extensive literature research. This catalogue was used as the basis to map the spatially varying tornado occurrence rate and to develop a stochastic tornado occurrence model. For the mapping of the spatially varying tornado occurrence, the adaptive Gaussian kernel smoothing and the adaptive diffusion smoothing were employed. The newly developed stochastic occurrence model together with an adopted practical tornado wind field model were used to map the tornado hazards over China's mainland in terms of the annual maximum tornado wind speed for given exceedance probabilities. The hazard was assessed for a site represented by a point as well as for a circular area, showing that the hazard is not negligible, and the hazard increases drastically as the size of the circular area increases. This implied that tornado hazard can be significant for a portfolio of structures within a relatively large circular area. The mapped hazard indicated that the hazard is not negligible for nuclear structures by considering the annual exceedance probability of 10⁻⁷, which is stipulated in the design code. The estimated tornado wind hazard was compared with that estimated based on a code-suggested procedure, which was developed and implemented in the 1970s and 1980s. The comparison indicated that the code procedure, in general, leads to a much greater tornado wind speed hazard. Some of the assumptions that resulted in the overestimation were identified. In addition, two new sets of empirical equations for the tornado path length, width and area were developed. The first set can be used for tornadoes with the F-scale rating and the second set for tornadoes with the EF-scale rating.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100834"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}