Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献_第5页

Assessing the effects of compound events of temperature and air pollution on weekly mortality in Spain using random forests 利用随机森林评估温度和空气污染复合事件对西班牙每周死亡率的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100816

Ginés Garnés-Morales , Javier Tortosa , Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero , Salvador Gil-Guirado , Ester García-Fernández , Juan Pedro Montávez

Numerous studies have shown the link between extreme weather events and mortality. Specifically, the impacts of extreme temperatures on death rates have been extensively evaluated and documented. Likewise, exposure to air pollution is well known to adversely affect health, with extreme pollution episodes also being related to elevated mortality rates. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that the combination of these phenomena could result in elevated mortality episodes. In this study, we demonstrate that the temporal variability of mortality rates across several Spanish provinces can be effectively explained by a multivariate model that incorporates both meteorological factors and air quality. While a Random Forest analysis shows that temperature is the primary factor in most provinces, the inclusion of pollutant concentration significantly enhances the model’s predictive accuracy. Moreover, a seasonal analysis of extreme events reveals a strong relationship between high mortality episodes and the occurrence of compound events. These events encompass different variables depending on the season. During summer (June–August), situations characterized by extreme temperatures combined with elevated ozone levels result in marked mortality peaks within the same week. In winter (December–February), conditions involving very low temperatures along with high nitrogen dioxide concentrations are associated with extreme mortality rates (above the 90th percentile) during the following week in half of the cases considered. These results suggest that early warning systems should include not only the individual variables but also their combination.

大量研究表明，极端天气事件与死亡率之间存在联系。具体而言，极端温度对死亡率的影响已得到广泛评估和记录。同样，众所周知，接触空气污染会对健康产生不利影响，极端污染事件也与死亡率升高有关。因此，我们有理由预计，这些现象的结合可能导致死亡率升高。在这项研究中，我们证明了西班牙几个省份的死亡率的时间变异性可以通过一个包含气象因素和空气质量的多变量模型有效地解释。随机森林分析显示，温度是大多数省份的主要影响因素，但污染物浓度的加入显著提高了模型的预测精度。此外，对极端事件的季节性分析表明，高死亡率事件与复合事件的发生之间存在密切关系。根据季节的不同，这些事件包含不同的变量。在夏季（6月至8月），极端温度加上臭氧水平升高的情况导致在同一周内出现明显的死亡率高峰。在冬季（12月至2月），温度极低且二氧化氮浓度高的情况与所考虑的半数病例在随后一周内的极端死亡率（高于第90百分位数）有关。这些结果表明，预警系统不仅应包括单个变量，还应包括它们的组合。

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引用次数: 0

Two sides of the same coin? Hydrometeorological uncertainties in impact-based flood warning systems and climate change sensitivity of floodplains 同一枚硬币的两面？基于影响的洪水预警系统中的水文气象不确定性与洪泛区气候变化敏感性

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100817

Markus Mosimann, Olivia Martius, Andreas Paul Zischg

The sensitivity of floodplains to floods of various magnitudes is strongly influenced by the relationship between hydrogeomorphology and the built environment. To provide a nuanced measure of impact sensitivity to changes in flood magnitude, we introduce a novel floodplain sensitivity index (

F S I

) that integrates slope and curvature metrics derived from the magnitude–impact curve. We apply the method to 179 floodplains in Switzerland. Our analysis reveals that higher flood magnitudes might substantially amplify impacts, given that many of the most sensitive magnitude thresholds have not yet been exceeded. We did not find coherent patterns in the

F S I

across geographic or topographic regions or along entire rivers. The shape of the impact curves and thus the impact sensitivity is specific not only to the floodplain but also to the type of impact. The

F S I

contributes to flood risk management by providing a method to identify critical flood magnitude thresholds that lead to severe impacts if exceeded. The

F S I

helps in assessing the effects of uncertainties in hydrometeorological forecasts on impact-based warnings and of uncertainties in climate change projections for long-term flood risk management strategies.

洪泛区对不同震级洪水的敏感性受到水文地貌与建筑环境之间关系的强烈影响。为了提供对洪水震级变化的影响敏感性的细致测量，我们引入了一种新的洪泛区敏感性指数（FSI），该指数集成了从震级影响曲线得出的斜率和曲率指标。我们将该方法应用于瑞士的179个洪泛平原。我们的分析表明，考虑到许多最敏感的震级阈值尚未被超过，更高的洪水震级可能会大大放大影响。我们没有发现跨地理或地形区域或沿整个河流的FSI的连贯模式。冲击曲线的形状以及由此产生的冲击敏感性不仅与洪泛区有关，而且与冲击类型有关。FSI为洪水风险管理提供了一种方法，以确定一旦超过就会导致严重影响的关键洪水级别阈值。FSI有助于评估水文气象预报的不确定性对基于影响的预警的影响，以及气候变化预测的不确定性对长期洪水风险管理策略的影响。

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引用次数: 0

The spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 via a copula function 基于copula函数的1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件时空特征

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100815

Tingting Liu , Xiufang Zhu , Hongquan Sun , Mingxiu Tang

In this study, a comprehensive and systematic analysis of extreme drought events in China from 1961 to 2022 utilizing the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and copula functions based on monthly gridded precipitation data is presented. In this study, drought events and their characteristics are identified using run theory and the 3-month SPI. A drought event with a joint exceedance probability of drought severity and duration calculated by the copula function at less than 5 % was subsequently defined as an extreme drought. Under extreme drought conditions, the duration/severity of drought was fixed at a specific value, the corresponding drought severity/duration was calculated grid by grid, and its spatial heterogeneity and change were analyzed during two time periods (1961–1991 and 1992–2022). The results revealed significant temporal and spatial variations in drought trends, with increased precipitation severity in Northwest China and the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau and more severe drought conditions in Northeast China and South China. The western part of Northwest China (Subregion 1) and the northern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (Subregion 6) experienced longer and more severe drought events, characterized by average durations of 3.93 months and maximum severities up to 10.52 in Subregion 1, significantly exceeding national averages (3.47 months and 9.26). The duration/severity of extreme drought varied in different regions, with higher durations/severities in drought-prone areas. The frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events exhibited significant variations, particularly in central and southern China, where the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme drought events have increased. In subtropical humid regions in Central China and South China (Subregion 5), 47 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of occurrences, 54 % of the grids experience an increase in the total number of months of occurrence, 64 % of the grids experience an increase in the average severity, and 62 % of the grids experience an increase in the maximum severity. Additionally, the number of extreme droughts caused by both duration and severity was greater than the number of extreme droughts dominated by any one factor alone. This study contributes to a more comprehensive assessment of extreme drought, providing a scientific basis for drought monitoring in China.

基于逐月格点降水数据，利用标准化降水指数（SPI）和copula函数对1961 - 2022年中国极端干旱事件进行了综合系统分析。本研究利用运行理论和3个月SPI识别干旱事件及其特征。由copula函数计算的干旱严重程度和持续时间的联合超过概率小于5%的干旱事件随后被定义为极端干旱。在极端干旱条件下，将干旱持续时间/严重程度固定在某一特定值，逐格计算对应的干旱严重程度/持续时间，分析1961—1991年和1992—2022年两个时间段干旱持续时间/持续时间的空间异质性和变化。第一分区域的严重程度分别为93个月和10.52个月，显著高于全国平均水平（3.47个月和9.26个月）。极端干旱的持续时间/严重程度在不同地区有所不同，在干旱易发地区持续时间/严重程度更高。极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度呈现显著变化，特别是在中国中部和南部地区，极端干旱事件的发生频率、持续时间和严重程度都有所增加。在中国中部和华南亚热带湿润地区（第五分区），47%的栅格总发生次数增加，54%的栅格总发生月数增加，64%的栅格平均严重程度增加，62%的栅格最大严重程度增加。此外，由持续时间和严重程度引起的极端干旱的数量大于仅由任何一种因素主导的极端干旱的数量。该研究有助于更全面地评价极端干旱，为中国干旱监测提供科学依据。

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引用次数: 0

The opposite trends in precipitation total and extremes during two rain-seasons across Ethiopia, the Water Tower of Africa 在被称为“非洲水塔”的埃塞俄比亚，两个雨季的总降水量和极端降水量呈现相反的趋势

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100813

Tewodros Addisu Yate , Guoyu Ren

This study assesses trends in precipitation total and extremes across Ethiopia from 1980 to 2019, using datasets of daily gauge observations. Following quality control and homogenization, daily precipitation data from 110 stations are gridded onto a 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid cells. Precipitation anomaly percentage (PAP) and the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indices are applied to represent precipitation total and extremes, respectively. Regional time series are constructed using area-weighted averages derived from the grid-level data. The Theil-Sen estimator and the modified Mann-Kendall test are employed to evaluate the statistical significance of trends at the 5 % level. The results indicate an annual and Jun–Sep seasonal increase in both precipitation total and extremes, characterized by rising frequency and intensity of extreme events. The Theil-Sen slope estimates a regional annual PAP increase of 0.92 % per decade, with a more pronounced rise of 4.6 % per decade for the Jun–Sep season (main precipitation season). Significant upward regional trends are observed in extreme indices such as RX1day, R95p, R99p, R10, R25, and R40 during the forty years. Spatial analysis highlights central, northwestern, and northeastern Ethiopia as areas experiencing robust increases in precipitation total and extremes. The observed rise in precipitation total is predominantly driven by increases in precipitation extremes within the region, as demonstrated by spatial correlations between precipitation total and extremes. Conversely, the Feb–May season (secondary precipitation season) exhibits significant regional decreases in precipitation total and extremes, particularly in northeastern, eastern, and southern areas. This includes declines in frequency-related indices (R5, R10, R25) and prolonged dry spells as measured by CDD. The causes for the increase in frequency and intensity of annual and Jun–Sep seasonal precipitation in Ethiopia over recent decades need to be investigated, though it is in accordance with the expectation that anthropogenic global warming can result in a rise in precipitation extremes over most regions of the world. However, the significant changes in precipitation observed in both Jun–Sep and Feb–May seasons are a cause for concern, as they may exert a major impact on sectors and areas of the country where these two seasons hold critical importance.

本研究利用每日测量观测数据集，评估了1980年至2019年埃塞俄比亚的降水总量和极端降水趋势。在质量控制和均质化之后，110个站点的日降水数据被网格化到1°× 1°经纬度网格单元上。降水异常百分比（PAP）指数和气候变化探测与指数专家组（ETCCDI）指数分别代表总降水量和极值降水量。区域时间序列是使用从网格级数据导出的面积加权平均值构建的。采用Theil-Sen估计量和修正Mann-Kendall检验来评估5%水平下趋势的统计显著性。结果表明：全年和6 - 9月降水总量和极端事件均呈增加趋势，极端事件发生频率和强度均呈上升趋势；Theil-Sen斜率估计区域年PAP每10年增加0.92%，其中6 - 9月（主要降水季节）的年PAP增加更为明显，每10年增加4.6%。40 a来，RX1day、R95p、R99p、R10、R25、R40等极端指数呈显著的区域上升趋势。空间分析强调，埃塞俄比亚中部、西北部和东北部地区的降水总量和极端降水都在强劲增加。观测到的降水总量的增加主要是由区域内极端降水的增加所驱动的，正如降水总量与极端降水之间的空间相关性所证明的那样。相反，2 - 5月（二次降水季）降水总量和极值均呈现明显的区域减少，特别是在东北部、东部和南部地区。这包括频率相关指数（R5、R10、R25）的下降，以及CDD测量的干旱期延长。近几十年来，埃塞俄比亚年度和6 - 9月季节性降水频率和强度增加的原因需要调查，尽管这与人为全球变暖可能导致世界大多数地区极端降水增加的预期是一致的。然而，6月至9月和2月至5月两个季节观测到的降水显著变化令人担忧，因为它们可能对该国这两个季节至关重要的部门和地区产生重大影响。

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引用次数: 0

Attributing a deadly landslide disaster in Southeastern Brazil to human-induced climate change 将巴西东南部致命的山体滑坡灾害归咎于人为引起的气候变化

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100811

Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa , Rafaela Quintella Veiga , Renata Pacheco Quevedo , Débora Joana Dutra , Ana Carolina Moreira Pessôa , Thaís Pereira de Medeiros , Chantelle Burton , Yuexiao Liu , Nubia Beray Armond , Rafael C. de Abreu , Sihan Li , Fraser C. Lott , Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo , Sarah Sparrow , Liana Oighenstein Anderson

Petrópolis was hit by a devastating disaster in February 2022, when it rained 252.8 mm within 3 h, leading to 200 lost lives and hundreds of people being displaced. Here, we aimed to attribute the extreme rainfall event that led to several landslides in Petrópolis, assess how Land Use and Land Cover changes (LUCC) from 1985 to 2021 contributed to it, and quantify their socioeconomic impacts. For this, we compared natural-only forcing (NAT) and natural and anthropogenic forcing combined (ALL) scenarios of the HadGEM3 ensemble models with observation data. We computed the trends in LUCC and quantified the landslide's socioeconomic impacts from official datasets. Human-induced climate change made this extreme event 45 % and 71 % more likely in short and long-term rainfall, respectively. Recurrence period dropped from 2.36 years (NAT) to 1.63 years (ALL) in the short-term and from 5.66 years (NAT) to 3.31 years (ALL) in the long-term. Landscape trends show an increase in forest formations, but unprotected hilltops that collapsed presented more than 40 % of their area as farming. The total economic loss was more than USD 22 million, with 1 078 people directly affected. The study's findings are valuable in understanding how changes in extreme weather events and land use are affecting our society. We highlight the need for adaptation measures and for more research addressing the attribution of extreme events, especially those associated with disastrous landslides.

2022年2月，Petrópolis遭受了一场毁灭性的灾难，当时3小时内降雨量达到252.8毫米，导致200人丧生，数百人流离失所。在这里，我们的目的是归因导致Petrópolis几次山体滑坡的极端降雨事件，评估1985年至2021年土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LUCC）是如何促成它的，并量化其社会经济影响。为此，我们将HadGEM3整体模式的自然强迫（NAT）和自然与人为强迫组合（ALL）情景与观测数据进行了比较。我们计算了LUCC的趋势，并从官方数据集中量化了滑坡的社会经济影响。人为引起的气候变化使这种极端事件在短期和长期降雨方面的可能性分别增加了45%和71%。短期复发期由2.36 a （NAT）降至1.63 a (ALL)，长期复发期由5.66 a （NAT）降至3.31 a （ALL）。景观趋势表明，森林的形成有所增加，但未受保护的山顶坍塌，其面积的40%以上为农业。经济损失总额超过2200万美元，直接受灾人数达1078人。这项研究的发现对于理解极端天气事件和土地利用的变化如何影响我们的社会是有价值的。我们强调需要采取适应措施，并开展更多研究，解决极端事件的归因问题，特别是与灾难性山体滑坡有关的事件。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria 模拟暴雨适应策略对尼日利亚埃基蒂州农村农民玉米产量的影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100814

Adewale Isaac Olutumise , Lawrence Olusola Oparinde , Akinyemi Gabriel Omonijo , Igbekele Amos Ajibefun , Taye Timothy Amos , Yiseyon Sunday Hosu , Julius Olumide Ilesanmi , Dayo Temitope Oguntuase

The increased recurrence of rainstorms remains a concern for productivity and economic development, especially in developing countries. Therefore, focusing on rainstorm adaptation and its impact on agricultural productivity will play a vital role in shaping policy decisions. Based on this fact, the study models the effects of rainstorm adaptation strategies on maize yield among rural farmers in Ekiti State, Nigeria, using an endogenous switching regression model. By the cross-sectional data of 293 farmers, the model accounts for selectivity bias. The result recognised that the rainstorm event had caused economic and environmental damage. However, the farmers do make proactive efforts to adapt to rainstorms in the area. The results further revealed that age, education, income, fertilizer applications, hill region, participation in training, and climate information determine the adoption of rainstorm adaptation decision-making. Our findings show that the adoption of rainstorm adaptation increased maize yield, as an average farmer who adopted it produced nearly 57 % more than farmers who did not adopt it. Again, adopters would have lost about 44 % value of yield if they had decided not to adopt, whereas approximately 28 % value of yield would have accrued by the non-adopters if they had adopted. Again, the number of assets owned, fertilizer application, climate belief, and participation in climate-related training are the significant factors explaining higher adopters’ yield. Therefore, the study suggests policy interventions that will promote the wide adoption of rainstorm adaptations. Also, improved weather forecasting services and better access to relevant climate information can help farmers make better decisions and plan their agricultural activities.

暴雨频繁发生仍然是生产力和经济发展的一个关切，特别是在发展中国家。因此，关注暴雨适应及其对农业生产力的影响将在制定政策决策中发挥至关重要的作用。基于此，本研究采用内源转换回归模型，模拟了尼日利亚Ekiti州农民暴雨适应策略对玉米产量的影响。通过293个农户的横截面数据，该模型考虑了选择性偏倚。结果表明，暴雨事件造成了经济和环境损害。然而，农民们确实做出了积极的努力来适应该地区的暴风雨。结果进一步表明，年龄、教育程度、收入、肥料施用、丘陵地区、参加培训和气候信息决定了暴雨适应决策的采用。我们的研究结果表明，采用暴雨适应措施提高了玉米产量，采用该措施的农民的平均产量比未采用该措施的农民高出近57%。同样，如果采用者决定不采用，他们将损失约44%的收益值，而如果他们采用了，非采用者将损失约28%的收益值。同样，拥有的资产数量、肥料施用、气候信念和参与气候相关培训是解释采用者更高产量的重要因素。因此，该研究建议采取政策干预措施，促进广泛采用适应暴雨的措施。此外，改善天气预报服务和更好地获取相关气候信息可以帮助农民做出更好的决策和规划他们的农业活动。

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引用次数: 0

Atmospheric Rivers intensify extreme precipitation and flooding across Australia 大气河流加剧了澳大利亚各地的极端降水和洪水

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100812

Sucheta Pradhan , Conrad Wasko , Murray C. Peel

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow corridors of intense water vapor transport in the atmosphere. While the link between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation has been established across many regions of the world, the relationship between atmospheric rivers and flooding, the ultimate hazard resulting from extreme precipitation, remains poorly understood. Utilizing 467 Hydrologic Reference Stations (HRS) across Australia, the contribution of ARs to extreme precipitation and flooding is investigated by calculating the probability of occurrence of an AR on peak over threshold (POT) event days using different lag periods. By examining the tail behaviour of heavy precipitation and flooding caused by ARs, using the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), the magnitude to which ARs impact extreme events, and how this varies with event severity, is also quantified. Here, we find that southeast Australia has the highest AR concurrence (around 75–100 %) with extreme precipitation and streamflow events. The median magnitude of extremes is 20–70 % higher in the presence of an AR. In addition, the return periods of extreme flood and precipitation events of a given magnitude are on average 2 to 12 times shorter when they coincide with an AR compared to when they do not coincide with an AR. Our study highlights that ARs are a major factor in significantly increasing the frequency of extreme weather events in different regions of Australia. This suggests a need to incorporate AR impacts in hydrological modelling to enable better water resource management and flood risk assessment.

大气河（ARs）是大气中密集水汽输送的狭窄通道。虽然在世界许多地区已经确立了大气河流与极端降水之间的联系，但对大气河流与洪水（极端降水造成的最终危害）之间的关系仍然知之甚少。利用澳大利亚467个水文参考站（HRS），通过计算不同滞后期的峰值超过阈值（POT）事件日发生AR的概率，研究了AR对极端降水和洪水的贡献。通过使用广义帕累托分布（GPD）检查由ar引起的强降水和洪水的尾部行为，ar影响极端事件的程度以及随事件严重程度的变化也被量化。在这里，我们发现澳大利亚东南部与极端降水和河流事件的AR发生率最高（约75 - 100%）。极端事件的中位数强度在AR存在时要高出20 - 70%。此外，当极端洪水和降水事件与AR同时发生时，其重现周期平均比不与AR同时发生时短2 - 12倍。我们的研究强调，AR是显著增加澳大利亚不同地区极端天气事件频率的主要因素。这表明有必要将AR影响纳入水文模型，以便更好地进行水资源管理和洪水风险评估。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of climate change on extreme weather indices in Ecuadorian cities: A socioeconomic analysis 气候变化对厄瓜多尔城市极端天气指数的影响：社会经济分析

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100810

Diego Portalanza , Malena Torres-Ulloa , Eduardo Alava , Jussen Facuy , Cristian Zuluaga , Rina Bucaram , Angelica Durigon , Simone Ferraz

Climate change poses a significant threat to Ecuador, a nation characterized by diverse climates and geographical features. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events and socioeconomic variables across nine key Ecuadorian cities using the RegCM4 regional climate model and the Global Gridded Relative Deprivation Index (GRDI). The analysis includes historical trends and future projections under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three extreme climatic indices: Consecutive Dry Days (CDD), Cold Nights (TN10p), and Warm Spell Duration Indicator (WSDI). Our findings indicate a consistent increase in CDD and WSDI, with significant decreases in TN10p across all cities over the past four decades, which are projected to continue under future climate scenarios. A Random Forest model was employed to explore the socio-economic impacts by predicting future changes in GRDI, highlighting how urban and rural deprivation might evolve in response to climatic changes. The results underscore the need for targeted adaptation strategies to address the unique vulnerabilities of each city and emphasize the critical role of land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC) in mitigating climate change impacts. This study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders, emphasizing the urgency of integrating climate resilience into urban development to ensure sustainable futures for urban centers in Ecuador.

气候变化对厄瓜多尔这个气候和地理特征多样的国家构成了重大威胁。本研究利用RegCM4区域气候模式和全球网格化相对剥夺指数（GRDI）研究了气候变化对厄瓜多尔9个主要城市极端天气事件和社会经济变量的影响。分析了RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下连续干旱日（CDD）、寒夜（TN10p）和暖期持续时间指标（WSDI） 3个极端气候指标的历史趋势和未来预测。我们的研究结果表明，在过去40年里，所有城市的CDD和WSDI持续增加，TN10p显著减少，预计在未来的气候情景下，这一趋势将继续下去。采用随机森林模型，通过预测GRDI的未来变化来探索社会经济影响，突出了城市和农村贫困如何随着气候变化而演变。研究结果强调了有针对性的适应战略的必要性，以解决每个城市独特的脆弱性，并强调了土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）在缓解气候变化影响中的关键作用。本研究为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了重要见解，强调了将气候适应能力纳入城市发展的紧迫性，以确保厄瓜多尔城市中心的可持续未来。

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引用次数: 0

Integrating non-stationarity and uncertainty in design life levels based on climatological time series 基于气候时间序列的设计寿命水平非平稳性和不确定性的综合

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100807

Occitane Barbaux , Philippe Naveau , Nathalie Bertrand , Aurélien Ribes

This work focuses on inferring design life levels for extreme events under non-stationary conditions. Its objectives are twofold. The first one is to provide a single indicator that summarizes relevant and interpretable information about large values in time series, even when stationarity cannot be assumed. Classical risk indicators such as the 100-year return level become difficult to interpret in a non-stationary framework. To address this, we leverage the existing concept of the equivalent reliability (ER) level. Under stationarity, the ER level coincides with the classical return level, but it differs otherwise. More precisely, the ER level ensures that the probability of having all observations below the ER level during a specified design period is controlled. This definition ensures interpretability in terms of safety or failure risk. A second objective is to capture stochastic and estimation uncertainty, a key aspect in any risk analysis, as uncertainties due to inference schemes can grow with extreme intensities. We incorporate both by using the Bayesian predictive distribution. Although well known in Bayesian statistics, the predictive distribution has rarely been applied to climatological time series risk analysis.

Our approach is demonstrated on simulated data and on a case study of annual maxima of temperatures at a site in Southern France. To do so, a non-stationary Bayesian hierarchical extreme value model is used to combine data from 26 CMIP6 general circulation model simulations (SSP2-4.5, 1850-2100) with observations. The resulting predictive ER levels clearly indicate that non-stationarity over a design period of interest, as well as sampling and estimation uncertainty, have to be taken into account for risk assessment. For example, the 1000-year posterior predictive ER level for 2050-2100 is higher than any non-stationary 1000-year return level median estimate over the same period, reflecting the increasing risk due to the non-stationarity of the SSP 2-4.5 pathway.

这项工作的重点是推断非平稳条件下极端事件的设计寿命水平。它的目标是双重的。第一种方法是提供一个单一的指标，该指标总结了时间序列中大值的相关和可解释的信息，即使不能假设平稳性。经典的风险指标，如100年回报水平，在非平稳框架下变得难以解释。为了解决这个问题，我们利用了等效可靠性（ER）级别的现有概念。在平稳性条件下，ER水平与经典回归水平一致，反之则不同。更准确地说，ER水平确保在指定设计期间所有观测值低于ER水平的概率得到控制。这个定义确保了在安全或故障风险方面的可解释性。第二个目标是捕获随机和估计不确定性，这是任何风险分析中的一个关键方面，因为推理方案的不确定性可能会以极端强度增长。我们通过使用贝叶斯预测分布将两者结合起来。虽然在贝叶斯统计中很有名，但预测分布很少应用于气候时间序列风险分析。

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引用次数: 0

Projected impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow extremes in the upper awash Basin, Ethiopia 气候和土地利用变化对埃塞俄比亚上冲盆地极端水流的预估影响

IF 6.9 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Weather and Climate Extremes

Pub Date : 2025-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100806

Selamawit Haftu Gebresellase , Zhiyong Wu , Wada Idris Muhammad , Gebremedhin Gebremeskel Haile

This study examines the projected effects of climate and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes on streamflow extremes in the Upper Awash Basin (UAB), Ethiopia. Using high-performing CMIP6 climate models under SSP4.5 and SSP8.5, and future LULC scenarios under Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Governance (GOV) for the 2030s and 2060s, the SWAT model was employed to simulate hydrological responses. Results revealed that climate change significantly affects streamflow extremes, with high-flow indices; Maximum High Flow (MHF), counts of High-Flow Pulses (HPC), and duration of High-Flow Pulses (HPD) showing pronounced increases, while low-flow indices; Minimum Low Flow (MLF), counts of low-flow pulses (LPC), and duration of low-flow pulses (LPD) exhibited substantial declines. For instance, under SSP8.5 in the 2060s, MHF, HPC, and HPD increased by 63.16 %, 26.85 %, and 14.96 %, respectively, whereas MLF, LPC, and LPD decreased by 67.11 %, 34.40 %, and 5.95 %. In contrast, LULC changes demonstrated statistically nonsignificant effects on both high- and low-flow indices across all scenarios and periods. The BAU scenario projected substantial urban and cropland expansion, resulting in decreased forest and shrubland areas, while the GOV scenario emphasized sustainable land management, controlling urban sprawl and increasing forest cover. Despite these differences, LULC-induced changes in streamflow extremes remained marginal compared to the overwhelming influence of climate change. This study highlights climate change as the dominant driver of future hydrological extremes in the UAB, emphasizing the need for climate-focused adaptation strategies to mitigate adverse impacts on water resources and livelihoods in the region.

本研究探讨了气候、土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）变化对埃塞俄比亚上阿瓦什盆地（UAB）极端流量的预测影响。利用SSP4.5和SSP8.5条件下的高性能CMIP6气候模型，以及2030年代和2060年代在常规商业模式（BAU）和政府模式（GOV）下的未来LULC情景，采用SWAT模型模拟水文响应。结果表明：气候变化显著影响极端流量，具有高流量指数；最大高流量（MHF）、高流量脉冲数（HPC）、高流量脉冲持续时间（HPD）明显增加，低流量指标；最小低流量（MLF）、低流量脉冲数（LPC）和低流量脉冲持续时间（LPD）均大幅下降。例如，20世纪60年代SSP8.5条件下，MHF、HPC和HPD分别增加了63.16%、26.85%和14.96%，而MLF、LPC和LPD分别减少了67.11%、34.40%和5.95%。相比之下，在所有情景和时期，LULC变化对高流量和低流量指数的影响在统计上都不显著。BAU情景预测了大量的城市和农田扩张，导致森林和灌木面积减少，而GOV情景强调可持续土地管理，控制城市蔓延和增加森林覆盖。尽管存在这些差异，与气候变化的压倒性影响相比，lulc引起的极端流量变化仍然很小。本研究强调气候变化是UAB地区未来水文极端事件的主要驱动因素，强调需要以气候为重点的适应战略，以减轻对该地区水资源和生计的不利影响。

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引用次数: 0