Weather and Climate Extremes最新文献

{"title":"Can wet heatwaves be represented by CMIP6 models and bias-corrected NEX-GDDP-CMIP6?","authors":"Zihui Zhao ,&nbsp;Shuiqing Yin ,&nbsp;Jim Hall","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100790","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100790","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As global warming intensifies, wet heatwaves pose an increasing threat to human health. As global climate models (GCMs) and their bias-corrected datasets are commonly used in wet heatwave research, it is essential to determine whether these datasets accurately represent wet heatwaves. We conducted a global assessment of 32 GCMs from CMIP6 and the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, simulating wet heatwaves based on extended summer wet-bulb temperature (T_w) during 1981–2014, and compared them with the Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (GMFD). Our findings indicate CMIP6 overestimates mean wet heatwave number (HWN), frequency (HWF), and duration (HWD), with relative biases from −32 % to 96 % (global mean: 10 %), −15 %–81 % (mean: 35 %), and −12 %–50 % (mean: 25 %) across IPCC climate reference regions, respectively. The exaggerated temporal autocorrelation of T_w, which statistically reflects an excessively persistent state of abnormal humid heat in GCMs, inflating biases in the count of events with long duration that probably lead to the overestimations of HWN, HWF, and HWD. CMIP6 significantly underestimates wet heatwave magnitude (HWM) by −70 %–6 % (mean: 9 %), primarily due to its underestimation of extreme T_w values. While the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset reduces this bias through the application of the quantile mapping method, it has limited effectiveness in correcting T_w autocorrelation, which restricts improvements in metrics such as HWN, HWF, and HWD. We find that heatwave intensity (HWI), reflecting the cumulative impact of heat, is influenced by the interplay between HWM and HWD. We identify the best-performing models for simulating wet heatwaves across continents using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6. These findings highlight the need for careful evaluation of both raw and bias-corrected datasets before using them in climate risk assessments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100790"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145684416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A strong stratospheric harbinger for cold extremes: Weak polar vortex transition from displacement to split pattern","authors":"Murong Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiao-Yi Yang ,&nbsp;Yipeng Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100832","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100832","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Weak stratospheric polar vortex (WSPV) events are dynamically connected with the variations in the tropospheric circulation, serving as crucial harbingers for surface cold extremes in the Northern Hemisphere. Although WSPV events are usually featured with either displaced or split stratospheric polar vortex pattern, a notable portion of WSPV events experiences both patterns successively, leading to inconclusive surface impacts of different WSPV events. Here, we propose a novel method to quantitatively identify WSPV events with vortex transition (namely, mixed-type WSPV events) by performing clustering analysis on WSPV days based on 42-yr ERA5 reanalysis, and further examine their climatological features, surface impacts and tropospheric precursors. Results show that the mixed-type WSPV events are usually featured with a routine vortex evolution from displacement to split. In contrast to comparatively weak tropospheric response to pure displaced- and split-type events, the mixed-type WSPV events feature the longer persistence of stratospheric circulation anomalies and are followed by stronger negative Arctic Oscillation-like surface signatures, further contributing to more robust cold anomalies over northern Eurasia and the central U.S. 10–39 days after event onset. Moreover, mixed-type events are typically induced by upward propagated wave activity flux into the stratosphere contributed by the synergistic enhancement of tropospheric planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2. The enhancement of tropospheric planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 is associated with deepening of the Aleutian Low and strengthening of the dipole over northern Scandinavia-eastern Siberia, respectively. This tropospheric configuration can sevrve as a vital precursor pattern for mixed-type WSPV events, hinting at extreme cold events with far-reaching societal impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100832"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145531897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating tornado occurrence and tornado wind hazard in China","authors":"Y.X. Liu ,&nbsp;Y. Zhang ,&nbsp;H.P. Hong","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100834","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100834","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tornadoes can potentially damage structures and cause fatalities. Although tornado occurrence is often observed in China's mainland, a systematic development of a comprehensive catalogue that forms the basis for tornado hazard assessment and mapping was not available. In the present study, a tornado catalogue from 1949 to 2023 over China's mainland was compiled based on extensive literature research. This catalogue was used as the basis to map the spatially varying tornado occurrence rate and to develop a stochastic tornado occurrence model. For the mapping of the spatially varying tornado occurrence, the adaptive Gaussian kernel smoothing and the adaptive diffusion smoothing were employed. The newly developed stochastic occurrence model together with an adopted practical tornado wind field model were used to map the tornado hazards over China's mainland in terms of the annual maximum tornado wind speed for given exceedance probabilities. The hazard was assessed for a site represented by a point as well as for a circular area, showing that the hazard is not negligible, and the hazard increases drastically as the size of the circular area increases. This implied that tornado hazard can be significant for a portfolio of structures within a relatively large circular area. The mapped hazard indicated that the hazard is not negligible for nuclear structures by considering the annual exceedance probability of 10⁻⁷, which is stipulated in the design code. The estimated tornado wind hazard was compared with that estimated based on a code-suggested procedure, which was developed and implemented in the 1970s and 1980s. The comparison indicated that the code procedure, in general, leads to a much greater tornado wind speed hazard. Some of the assumptions that resulted in the overestimation were identified. In addition, two new sets of empirical equations for the tornado path length, width and area were developed. The first set can be used for tornadoes with the F-scale rating and the second set for tornadoes with the EF-scale rating.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100834"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Possible increase of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Northwest Pacific induced by the Tambora eruption in 1815","authors":"Yue Li ,&nbsp;Yang Yang ,&nbsp;Leying Zhang ,&nbsp;Jiuwei Zhao ,&nbsp;Kun Wu ,&nbsp;Shanshan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100837","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100837","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The impact of tropical volcanic eruptions (TVEs) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity remains a subject of ongoing debate. Here, we investigate the effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption, which occurred during the pre-industrial period, with that of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in present-day era on TC activity in the western North Pacific (WNP). Using high-resolution simulations and proxy data derived from reanalyses, we find that both TVEs lead to significant increases in TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and track density (TCTD) over the WNP. The Tambora eruption triggers the equatorial central Pacific warming, inducing tropical westerly wind anomalies in the WNP. While thermodynamic conditions were generally unfavorable for TC genesis, the dominant influence of dynamic factors facilitated increased TC activity. Our findings suggest that the cooling effect of TVEs can be viewed as a transient analog of global warming, providing valuable insights into future TC variability under changing climatic conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100837"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145560160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving extreme precipitation forecasts in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) using analog methods: A comparison with the GFS model","authors":"Carlo Guzzon ,&nbsp;Raül Marcos-Matamoros ,&nbsp;Maria Carmen Llasat ,&nbsp;Montserrat Llasat-Botija","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100839","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100839","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood forecasting in the Mediterranean region remains particularly challenging due to the localized and convective nature of extreme precipitation events. This study evaluates the potential of analog-based methods (AMs) to enhance 24-hour precipitation forecasts for Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula), with the broader objective of supporting flood risk management and early warning systems. The tested AMs use geopotential height fields at 500 and 1000 hPa as predictors and differ in complexity, combining Weather-Type classification (WT), Seasonal Standardization (S), and the Perfect Prognosis (PP) framework, a novel configuration in analog-based forecasting. Model performance was assessed against operational Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts using fifth-generation ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA5) as reference, for both moderate and extreme precipitation events associated with historical floods. Results show that AMs integrating Seasonal Standardization and the Perfect Prognosis framework markedly improve 24-hour precipitation forecasts relative to GFS, particularly in reproducing the intensity and spatial distribution of extreme events. These findings highlight the operational potential of enhanced AMs as efficient, data-driven complements to numerical weather prediction models, offering improved skill for flash-flood forecasting and impact-based risk management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100839"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145575411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sociodemographic vulnerability to cold and stormy weather in relation to health and life","authors":"Y.T. Eunice Lo ,&nbsp;Joanne L. Godwin ,&nbsp;Ulrika Maude ,&nbsp;Huw Day ,&nbsp;Nicolas J. Timpson ,&nbsp;Kate Northstone","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100840","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100840","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cold weather is the leading weather-related health threat in the UK, and winter storms can cause significant damage and disruption to society. However, their effects on the UK public's daily life and health remain underexplored. Leveraging resources from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we surveyed 2 736 individuals about their experiences and behaviour during a cold spell and Storms Henk, Isha, and Jocelyn in January 2024. Over half of respondents reported reduced physical activity during cold (51 %) and stormy weather (53 %), and worsened mood during the storms (57 %). Certain sociodemographic groups had more than twice the odds of reporting negative impacts compared to other groups during both cold and storms: females, individuals aged ≤34, and those with a disability reported worse appetite; unemployed and employed individuals (compared to retired respondents) reported lower productivity; and those with a long-term health condition or disability reported worse physical health and access to healthcare. While over 90 % of respondents were aware of severe weather warnings and more than 80 % took adaptive actions, enhanced public messaging on staying active indoors and seasonal vaccinations, and financial support for home heating are crucial to mitigate the adverse effects of cold and stormy weather.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100840"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145593692","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Nowcasting of dust and convective storms via diffusion-model predictions of SEVIRI RGB imagery","authors":"Kilian Hermes ,&nbsp;John H. Marsham ,&nbsp;Massimo Bollasina ,&nbsp;Melissa Brooks ,&nbsp;Martina Klose ,&nbsp;Franco Marenco","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100828","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100828","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Convective storms in the tropics are inherently unpredictable on the scales typical of global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Rapid-refresh short term predictions, so called nowcasts, provide added value and can improve forecasts on short timescales. Nowcasts provide the most up to date predictions, making them particularly relevant for rapidly developing high impact weather that is not reproduced in global NWP models. While NWP nowcasts exist for USA, UK, and continental Europe, this is not the case for Africa where nowcasts are primarily observation-based. Here we focus on West Africa, an area where convective storms are frequent weather events. Besides direct impacts from the convective storms, outflow from these storms frequently causes large-scale dust storms. Dust storms are high impact weather and directly impact human life. Early warning is crucial for mitigating their adverse impacts. While dust storms are poorly forecast in currently operational weather prediction models, they are well observed from space, posing great potential for nowcasting. The desert dust red–green–blue (RGB) composite highlights dust and convective systems in bright colours, making it a useful product for a trained observer for identifying and tracking dust storms. In this study, we introduce DustCast, a diffusion model for image-based nowcasting of dust storms by predicting the SEVIRI desert dust RGB composite up to 6 h ahead. Our nowcasts can reproduce convectively generated dust storms that currently operational NWP do not reliably reproduce. We also predict convective storms that are contained in the same imagery and provide useful context information for a forecaster assessing the weather situation. Our model shows limited capability of reproducing entirely new features that are not contained in the input data. This primarily poses limitations for cases with convection initiation. On average, our model achieves useful skill (Fractions Skill Score <span><math><mo>&gt;</mo></math></span> 0.5) for predicting dust storms up to 5 h lead time, and for convective systems for up to 4 h. DustCast is the first model of its kind for nowcasting dust, and extends skill for nowcasting convective storms by more than 2 h compared to conventional methods based on optical flow. Deployment during a nowcasting testbed has shown that our nowcast provides an easy-to-use product for operational forecasters. Our method could also be adapted to predict other RGB composites such as those specifically for convection, ash or fog, and indeed other products using observation data from geostationary satellites, opening potential for a large variety of applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100828"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145545495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing cold surge induced storm surge in the northern East China Sea: A 60-year hindcast reveals paradoxical trends in surge heights and return levels","authors":"Xuecheng Zhang ,&nbsp;Luming Shi ,&nbsp;Bingchen Liang ,&nbsp;Guoxiang Wu ,&nbsp;Zhenlu Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100835","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recurrent cold surges represent a major hazardous weather phenomenon in the northern East China Sea. While their synoptic-scale meteorological processes are well-established, their impacts on oceanic dynamics, particularly storm surge behavior, remains insufficiently understood. This study presents the first detailed hindcast and analysis of storm surges associated with 780 cold surge events over the past 60 years. The investigation focuses on the spatiotemporal characteristics and long-term variability of these storm surges, with particular attention to changes in storm surge return levels. The results reveal a general decline in the occurrence frequency, annual maxima, and spatial extent of cold surge induced storm surges. However, a paradoxical increase in surge height return levels is observed across most coastal regions. This counterintuitive trend is attributed to shifts in the surge height distribution, characterized by a rising proportion of high-percentile surge events and a decreasing occurrence of moderate-percentile surges. This redistribution alters the exceedance probability curve by flattening the upper tail of the probability density, subsequently leading to increased 20-year and 50-year return level estimates. On a monthly scale, February exhibits the most intense and widespread storm surges. Long-term trends are evident in transitional months associated with the onset and weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon. Upward trends in maximum storm surges are found in September and March, while a declining trend is observed in April. These findings provide new insights into the evolving nature of cold surge induced storm surges and their implications for coastal disaster management and mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"51 ","pages":"Article 100835"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145567558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Differential sensitivities of three types of compound drought and heatwave events to human-induced climate change across the globe","authors":"Shuzhe Huang ,&nbsp;Siqi Wang ,&nbsp;Chao Wang ,&nbsp;Xiang Zhang ,&nbsp;Jianya Gong ,&nbsp;Nengcheng Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100836","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100836","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events threaten ecosystems, water security, and human health through mutually reinforcing thermal and hydrological stress. Using CMIP6 multi-model simulations, we quantify influences of human-induced climate change on three CDHW types (i.e., precipitation-based (CMDH), runoff-based (CHDH), and soil-moisture-based (CSDH)) by isolating greenhouse gas, aerosol, and natural forcings (1960–2014). Greenhouse gas forcing emerges as the dominant driver of global CDHW intensification, with CSDH showing the strongest and most coherent amplification of CDHW frequency and severity. Aerosols partially offset warming-induced increases, particularly in monsoon regions. Interpretable machine learning reveals temperature as the primary driver, with precipitation and vapor pressure deficit playing event-dependent roles. Future projections (2015–2100) under high-emission pathways indicate significant severity growth (6.8 %, 9.4 %, and 15.4 % for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH on average) and sharply rising population exposure (with slope of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.65 for CMDH, CHDH, and CSDH) concentrated in tropical and temperate regions. These findings highlight the urgency of aggressive mitigation and adaptation strategies that address the compound nature of climate extremes and the spatial heterogeneity of anthropogenic impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100836"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Synergistic effects of precipitation and phase changes intensify future rain-on-snow events in the Tianshan and Pamir regions, Central Asia","authors":"Tao Yang ,&nbsp;Lanhai Li ,&nbsp;Rafiq Hamdi ,&nbsp;Fengqi Cui ,&nbsp;Zhaojun Zheng ,&nbsp;Philippe De Maeyer ,&nbsp;Xi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.wace.2025.100833","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rain-on-snow (ROS) events significantly influence hydrological extremes, while their future dynamics across the Tianshan and Pamir regions remain insufficiently assessed. This study utilized WRF dynamically downscaling simulations driven by bias-corrected CMIP6 data to investigate changes in ROS characteristics and water available for runoff contributions during the historical (1995–2014) and mid-century (2041–2060) periods under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Results showed that the historical average annual ROS frequency, daily maximum ROS intensity, and total annual ROS intensity were 1.86 days, 13.52 mm, and 46.02 mm, respectively, with the highest ROS frequency occurring at elevations between 2250 and 2500 m. Regionally, ROS activity was most intense along the windward slopes of the Western Tianshan, Northern Tianshan, and Western Pamir. Seasonally, events peaked in spring, comprising 50.64 % of annual occurrences, with higher contributions in the Pamir (57.09 %) and Western Tianshan (52.65 %). The above indices were projected to increase by 49.57 %, 43.39 %, and 65.67 % under SSP245 and by 49.33 %, 45.44 %, and 66.63 % under SSP585. The annual contribution of snowmelt to total water available for runoff declined by 11.97 percentage points (pp) and 11.39 pp under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, indicating a reduced role of snow-driven runoff processes. In contrast, ROS-induced snowmelt contributions to total snowmelt climbed by 1.42 pp and 1.46 pp; consequently, the ROS intensity's contribution to water available for runoff increased by 1.32 pp and 1.35 pp under the respective scenarios. These shifts were primarily driven by increased annual precipitation (295 and 288 mm), decreased snowfall/precipitation ratio (−8.53 pp and −8.30 pp), and increased all intense rainfall events (11.63 and 11.36 days) under warming (2.49 and 2.51 °C). Consequently, the hydrological system became more susceptible to ROS-driven extreme events. These findings revealed an increased risk of ROS-induced flooding potential under climate warming and underscored a potential seasonal mismatch between runoff supply and water demand in arid alpine regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48630,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Climate Extremes","volume":"50 ","pages":"Article 100833"},"PeriodicalIF":6.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145553543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}