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Foreword GFS special issue – Diet Cost and Affordability Metrics: Application of subnational evidence for food security and nutrition GFS特刊-饮食成本和可负担性指标:地方证据在粮食安全和营养方面的应用
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100862
Saskia de Pee
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引用次数: 0
Potential and limitations of machine learning modeling for forecasting Acute Food Insecurity 预测急性粮食不安全的机器学习模型的潜力和局限性
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-05-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100859
Melissande Machefer , Anne-Claire Thomas , Michele Meroni , Jose Manuel Veiga Lopez Pena , Michele Ronco , Christina Corbane , Felix Rembold
Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) remains a highly relevant and persistent challenge. Machine Learning (ML) presents promising solutions to improve predictions and early warning systems by integrating large and diverse datasets and considering multiple drivers of AFI. This review examines target variables and input features in existing ML modeling efforts, providing an assessment of current data availability, accessibility and fragmentation, and improving the understanding of possibilities and limitations of ML for end-users. For modelers, we recommend optimal input variables and outline the modeling workflow by comparing all approaches. We furthermore develop a quantitative comparison of the influence of drivers in studied models’ predictions. We advocate for an increased effort to investigate ML causality and improve usability of ML models.
急性粮食不安全(AFI)仍然是一个高度相关和持久的挑战。机器学习(ML)通过整合大型和多样化的数据集并考虑AFI的多个驱动因素,为改善预测和预警系统提供了有希望的解决方案。本文审查了现有ML建模工作中的目标变量和输入特征,提供了对当前数据可用性、可访问性和碎片性的评估,并提高了最终用户对ML可能性和局限性的理解。对于建模者,我们推荐最佳输入变量,并通过比较所有方法概述建模工作流程。我们进一步对研究模型预测中驱动因素的影响进行了定量比较。我们提倡加大力度调查机器学习的因果关系,提高机器学习模型的可用性。
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引用次数: 0
Do international financial institutions facilitate agrifood systems transformation? A textual analysis of design documents 国际金融机构是否促进了农业粮食体系的转型?对设计文档进行文本分析
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100845
Jaron Porciello , Paul Winters , Mohammed Farrae , Julia McKenna , Lauren Phillips
Supporting agrifood system transformation to improve outcomes around climate, nutrition, and inclusion requires that institutions and governments work together. International financial institutions play a pivotal role in shaping global development by providing billions of dollars in loans and grants to borrowing countries for large-to-medium scale projects in the agrifood sector. While projects are agreed upon between institutions and borrowing countries, there are significant challenges in tracking outcomes originating across projects. We used large language models to analyze the agrifood systems outcomes reported in 916 international financial institution project design documents approved by agency boards from 2015 to 2022. The results reveal a lack of environmental and climate change outcomes in the regions most impacted by climate change and little focus on women's empowerment, inclusivity, and agency.
支持农业粮食体系转型以改善气候、营养和包容方面的成果,需要各机构和政府共同努力。国际金融机构通过向借款国提供数十亿美元的贷款和赠款,为农业食品部门的大中型项目提供支持,在塑造全球发展方面发挥着关键作用。虽然各机构和借款国之间就项目达成一致,但在跟踪各个项目产生的成果方面存在重大挑战。我们使用大型语言模型分析了2015年至2022年由机构董事会批准的916个国际金融机构项目设计文件中报告的农业食品系统结果。结果显示,受气候变化影响最严重的地区缺乏环境和气候变化成果,对妇女赋权、包容性和能动性的关注也很少。
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引用次数: 0
Narrowing the ecological yield gap to sustain crop yields with less inputs 缩小生态产量差距,以较少投入维持作物产量
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100857
Martin K. van Ittersum , João Vasco Silva , Riccardo Bommarco , Renske Hijbeek , Ola Lundin , Romain Nandillon , Göran Bergkvist , Alexander Menegat , Ingrid Öborn , Annika Söderholm-Emas , Frederick L. Stoddard , Giulia Vico , Wytse J. Vonk , Christine A. Watson , Chloe MacLaren
Sustainable production of sufficient and healthy food requires efficient use of agricultural inputs. In many regions of the world with intensive agriculture and relatively small yield gaps, this calls for a reduction of external inputs (fertilizers and pesticides) while maintaining yields. Ecological intensification, defined as the use of practices that enhance on-farm ecosystem services to reduce external input requirements, has been proposed as a strategy to help achieve this. However, the effects of ecological intensification are context- and input-dependent, creating uncertainty on its effectiveness and feasibility. Here, we introduce the concept of an ‘ecological yield gap’ to provide a common analytical framework to strengthen collaboration between agronomists and ecologists in assessing the contribution of ecosystem services within the wider array of inputs, management practices, technologies, and biophysical limits that determine on-farm crop yields. We define the ecological yield gap as the yield increase that could be achieved in a given context (climate x soil x cropping system), and at a given input level, by increasing the delivery of ecosystem services via ecological intensification practices that support crop growth and substitute external inputs. We provide empirical examples of such practices, including crop diversification, service crops, and organic amendments that can increase the use efficiency of mineral fertilizers and suppress pests, weeds and diseases. The potential of these practices to narrow the ecological yield gap and their feasibility at farm level depend on how the ecosystem services they provide interact with other aspects of the farming system and requires analysis at farm level. This perspective paper aims to facilitate a shared research agenda among agronomists and ecologists to develop complementarity between ecosystem services and inputs at field and farm levels.
可持续生产充足和健康的食物需要有效利用农业投入。在世界上许多集约化农业和产量差距相对较小的地区,这要求在保持产量的同时减少外部投入(化肥和农药)。生态集约化被定义为使用增强农场生态系统服务以减少外部投入需求的做法,已被提议作为帮助实现这一目标的战略。然而,生态集约化的影响依赖于环境和投入,对其有效性和可行性产生了不确定性。在这里,我们引入了“生态产量缺口”的概念,以提供一个共同的分析框架,以加强农学家和生态学家之间的合作,评估生态系统服务在决定农田作物产量的更广泛的投入、管理实践、技术和生物物理限制中的贡献。我们将生态产量缺口定义为在给定的环境(气候x土壤x种植制度)下,在给定的投入水平上,通过支持作物生长和替代外部投入的生态集约化实践增加生态系统服务的提供,可以实现的产量增加。我们提供了此类实践的经验例子,包括作物多样化、服务作物和有机改良,这些改良可以提高矿物肥料的利用效率,并抑制害虫、杂草和疾病。这些做法缩小生态产量差距的潜力及其在农场层面的可行性取决于它们提供的生态系统服务如何与农业系统的其他方面相互作用,并需要在农场层面进行分析。这篇前瞻性的论文旨在促进农学家和生态学家之间的共同研究议程,以发展生态系统服务与田间和农场层面投入之间的互补性。
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引用次数: 0
Price shocks and associated policy responses stemming from the Russia-Ukraine War and other global crises: Evidence from six African countries 俄罗斯-乌克兰战争及其他全球危机引发的价格冲击和相关对策:来自六个非洲国家的证据
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100861
Emmanuel Mwakiwa , Ayala Wineman , Andrew Agyei-Holmes , Modou Gueye Fall , Lilian Kirimi , Zena Mpenda , Edward Mutandwa , Iredele Ogunbayo , David Tschirley
Recent years have brought a deluge of shocks to agrifood systems, particularly for low- and middle-income countries. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine War, and manifestations of climate change, among others. This paper quantitatively explores the nature of price shocks in fuel, fertilizer, and foods since 2019 and qualitatively characterizes the policy responses undertaken in six African countries, namely Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. Results confirm that prices for key foods (maize, rice, wheat, and vegetable oil), fuel, and fertilizer increased markedly in all six countries, with the most rapid increases arriving in 2022. We completed a desk review of relevant policy responses and conducted 104 semi-structured interviews with policy makers and other key stakeholders across the six countries to understand their experiences with, and perspectives on, policy responses to recent and ongoing shocks. These interviews surfaced several themes: (1) Policies exhibit an intensifying emphasis since 2020 on self-sufficiency in food and fertilizer; (2) Though subsidies and tariff reductions are a readily available policy response, the fiscal burden can be quite high; (3) Policy responses to shocks sometimes lack coherence, with some policies offsetting the others’ impacts; (4) While recent shocks triggered some trade realignment, they have not stimulated increased within-Africa (intra-regional) trade; and (5) Policy makers exhibit an increasing appreciation for organic fertilizer and increasingly recognize climate change and associated environmental stress when shaping fertilizer policy. Altogether, these findings underscore a need for more discourse on the most fitting balance between national self-sufficiency and participation in international trade.
近年来,农粮系统受到了大量冲击,尤其是对中低收入国家而言。这些冲击包括 Covid-19 大流行病、俄乌战争以及气候变化的各种表现等等。本文定量探讨了 2019 年以来燃料、化肥和粮食价格冲击的性质,并定性分析了加纳、肯尼亚、尼日利亚、塞内加尔、坦桑尼亚和津巴布韦这六个非洲国家采取的政策应对措施。结果证实,所有六个国家的主要粮食(玉米、大米、小麦和植物油)、燃料和化肥价格都明显上涨,其中 2022 年的涨幅最快。我们完成了对相关政策应对措施的案头审查,并对六个国家的政策制定者和其他主要利益相关者进行了 104 次半结构化访谈,以了解他们在应对近期和持续冲击的政策方面的经验和观点。这些访谈提出了几个主题(1) 自 2020 年以来,政策越来越强调粮食和化肥的自给自足;(2) 虽然补贴和关税减免是现成的应对政策,但财政负担可能相当高;(3) 应对冲击的政策有时缺乏连贯性,一些政策抵消了其他政策的影响;(4) 虽然最近的冲击引发了一些贸易调整,但并没有刺激非洲内部(区域内)贸易的增长;以及 (5) 决策者对有机肥料表现出越来越高的评价,并在制定化肥政策时越来越认识到气候变化和相关的环境压力。总之,这些研究结果突出表明,有必要就国家自给自足与参与国际贸易之间最恰当的平衡进行更多讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Food processing and sustainability: Exploring new multidisciplinary perspectives 食品加工和可持续性:探索新的多学科视角
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100855
Anthony Fardet , Mike Boland , Hoang Hong-Minh , Amélia Delgado , Rafia Halawany-Darson , Arnaud Germond , Claudiu Eduard Nedelciu , Nikolaos Kopsahelis , Arnaud Diemer , Virginie Baritaux , Francesca Galli , Edmond Rock
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing households' livelihoods in agrifood systems: The role of women's empowerment 提高农业粮食系统中的家庭生计:妇女赋权的作用
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100856
Romina Cavatassi , Lauren M. Phillips , Giuseppe Maggio , Zecharias Anteneh , Athur Mabiso
Women's empowerment is crucial not only for their well-being but also for the well-being of entire households, communities and economies. Closing gender gaps and increasing women's empowerment in agrifood systems is critical to achieving a broad range of objectives, including Sustainable Development Goals 1, 2, 5 and 10. Much of the literature on women's empowerment in agriculture and agrifood systems focuses on its benefits in terms of agricultural production, dietary diversity, child nutrition and women's nutrition. However, there is limited evidence on the impact of women's empowerment on outcomes related to livelihoods and resilience to shocks -- two key elements that drive improvements in the livelihoods of small-scale producers and help to further justify the importance of investing in women's empowerment to achieve development outcomes. This paper aims to bridge this gap by examining how women's empowerment within development projects in the agriculture and rural development sectors affects household livelihood outcomes including income, food security/nutrition and resilience. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) across 23 countries worldwide, we assess the role of empowering women in improving livelihoods for their households. Our analysis employs a dual approach: a meta-level evaluation focusing on project outcomes and a household-level analysis aggregating data from 21 of the 23 countries available. Results from both analytical methods reveal significant benefits to livelihood outcomes, including enhanced household income and resilience, where women report increased empowerment. This suggests that women's empowerment is a key area of investments for rural development and prosperity.
赋予妇女权力不仅对她们的福祉至关重要,而且对整个家庭、社区和经济的福祉也至关重要。缩小农业粮食系统中的性别差距和增强妇女权能,对于实现包括可持续发展目标1、2、5和10在内的一系列广泛目标至关重要。关于妇女在农业和农业粮食系统中赋权的许多文献侧重于其在农业生产、饮食多样性、儿童营养和妇女营养方面的益处。然而,关于妇女赋权对生计和抵御冲击能力相关结果的影响的证据有限,这两个关键因素推动了小规模生产者生计的改善,并有助于进一步证明投资于妇女赋权以实现发展成果的重要性。本文旨在通过研究在农业和农村发展部门的发展项目中赋予妇女权力如何影响家庭生计成果,包括收入、粮食安全/营养和抵御力,来弥合这一差距。利用国际农业发展基金(农发基金)在全球23个国家的综合数据集,我们评估了赋予妇女权力在改善家庭生计方面的作用。我们的分析采用了双重方法:侧重于项目成果的元层面评估和汇总来自23个国家中的21个国家的数据的家庭层面分析。两种分析方法的结果都显示了生计结果的显著好处,包括增加家庭收入和抵御能力,妇女报告说增强了赋权。这表明,增强妇女权能是投资农村发展和繁荣的一个关键领域。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges and opportunities for building resilient agrifood systems in food crisis contexts 在粮食危机背景下建立有抵御力的农业粮食系统的挑战和机遇
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100849
Antoine Libert-Amico, Rebeca Koloffon
After steadily declining for years on a global level, food crises driven by conflict, climate extremes and economic downturns have marked an increase in the number of people who face hunger and malnutrition since 2015. Food crises are leading countries far off-track from achieving food security and improved nutrition by 2030, as set out in Sustainable Development Goal 2. Conventional approaches to rural transformation driven by enhanced agricultural productivity have not rendered the needed results, heading the call for inclusive agrifood system transformation that focuses on resilience, particularly in crisis contexts. However, obstacles such as fragile institutions, conflict and violence and recurring shocks and stresses hinder investing in crisis contexts and threaten transformation pathways in agrifood systems. This paper describes synergies between humanitarian, development, peace and climate interventions that can be leveraged to direct investments in a comprehensive set of resilience building interventions along the agricultural sectors and food system livelihoods to contribute to sustainably address hunger and malnutrition in food crisis countries.
在全球范围内,粮食危机在持续多年下降之后,由冲突、极端气候和经济衰退引发的粮食危机标志着自2015年以来面临饥饿和营养不良的人数有所增加。粮食危机导致各国远远偏离了可持续发展目标 2 提出的到 2030 年实现粮食安全和改善营养状况的轨道。以提高农业生产率为驱动力的传统农村转型方法并未取得所需的成果,因此呼吁进行以复原力为重点的包容性农粮系统转型,尤其是在危机情况下。然而,脆弱的机构、冲突和暴力以及反复出现的冲击和压力等障碍阻碍了在危机背景下的投资,并威胁着农粮系统的转型途径。本文介绍了人道主义、发展、和平与气候干预措施之间的协同作用,可利用这些协同作用引导对农业部门和粮食系统生计方面的一整套复原力建设干预措施进行投资,从而为可持续地解决粮食危机国家的饥饿和营养不良问题做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Why do epidemics cause more hunger even when global food production is unaffected? 为什么流行病会在全球粮食生产未受影响的情况下造成更多的饥饿?
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100848
Binlei Gong , Shouhan Dai , Shuo Wang , Xinjie Shi , Biao Huang , Kevin Z. Chen
An apparent paradox is that, sufficient food is currently being produced to feed the global population, yet there has been a rising hunger in many parts of the world. An explanation that has been advanced in the literature lies in unfair food distribution within a specific region. However, empirical evidence regarding how infectious diseases influence people's food availability from a global food distribution perspective is still lacking. This paper aims to provide empirical evidence through investigating the effect of infectious diseases on hunger from the perspective of global food distribution. Using a panel data for 105 countries over the period of 1990–2016, we find that infectious diseases had no significant impact on overall global food production, but they caused more severe hunger in many countries or regions. How is that possible? The mechanism analysis shows that there was an increased flow of food from developing countries to developed countries during epidemics. Meanwhile, developing countries failed to compensate for this shortfall through either food stock or food aid, resulting in a reduced availability of food for domestic consumption. We find that epidemics caused higher domestic food prices and reduced affordability of food, which further exacerbated food insecurity and malnutrition in developing countries. To achieve the 2030 SDGs goal of Zero Hunger, it is critical to improve global food governance and enhance food distribution when facing a crisis such as epidemics.
一个明显的矛盾是,目前正在生产足够的粮食来养活全球人口,然而世界上许多地方的饥饿人数却在增加。文献中提出的一种解释是,特定地区的食物分配不公平。然而,从全球粮食分配的角度来看,关于传染病如何影响人们的粮食供应的经验证据仍然缺乏。本文旨在从全球粮食分配的角度考察传染病对饥饿的影响,提供经验证据。使用1990-2016年105个国家的面板数据,我们发现传染病对全球总体粮食生产没有显著影响,但它们在许多国家或地区造成了更严重的饥饿。这怎么可能呢?机制分析表明,在流行病期间,发展中国家向发达国家的粮食流量有所增加。与此同时,发展中国家未能通过粮食储备或粮食援助来弥补这一短缺,导致国内消费的粮食供应减少。我们发现,流行病导致国内粮食价格上涨,粮食负担能力下降,进一步加剧了发展中国家的粮食不安全和营养不良。为实现2030年可持续发展目标的零饥饿目标,在面临流行病等危机时,必须改善全球粮食治理,加强粮食分配。
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引用次数: 0
Nutritious monocultures? Where and how fruits and vegetables are produced in the US 营养单一栽培?美国的水果和蔬菜是在哪里生产的
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100860
Kaitlyn Spangler , Andrea Rissing , Emily K. Burchfield , Britta L. Schumacher , Bronwen Powell , Karen R. Siegel
The United States (US) agri-food system is primarily oriented toward growing grain for livestock, biofuels, and other highly processed byproducts that cause concern for human and environmental health. Simultaneously, the US is in a trade deficit, importing three times as many fruits and vegetables as it exports. Those fruits and vegetables that are produced in the US rely on precarious labor systems and unsustainable costs to the wellbeing of farmers and farmworkers, exposing the fractures and precarity of these systems amidst changing trade agreements and immigration policies. To overcome these fractures, calls for more diverse and resilient food systems are increasingly urgent. Using national-scale agricultural and labor datasets, we ask: 1) How well do current US agricultural landscapes produce the fruits and vegetables needed for a healthy and diverse diet at scale? 2) How diverse are these landscapes? 3) How does migrant labor support fruit and vegetable production and diversity? We show that US agricultural landscapes are not producing the fruits and vegetables needed for a healthy and diverse diet. Fruit and vegetable production is concentrated on the coasts of the country and occupies little land, making it difficult to see, track, and understand on a national scale. Further, as the proportion of cropland under fruit and vegetable production increases, fruit and vegetable diversity decreases, suggesting that most fruits and vegetables are grown in simplified systems. Finally, counties with the highest proportion of fruit and vegetable production have the highest averages of H-2A farmworker certifications, emphasizing a disproportionate reliance on migrant labor as fruit and vegetable production expands. This study helps to disentangle the link between what we grow and what we eat in the US, tempering calls to increase fruit and vegetable production in the US writ large without reconciling the accumulating concerns of these current systems.
美国的农业食品系统主要面向为牲畜、生物燃料和其他引起人类和环境健康关注的高度加工副产品种植谷物。与此同时,美国处于贸易逆差状态,进口的水果和蔬菜是出口的三倍。那些在美国生产的水果和蔬菜依赖于不稳定的劳动力体系,对农民和农场工人的福利造成了不可持续的成本,在不断变化的贸易协定和移民政策中暴露了这些体系的断裂和不稳定性。为了克服这些裂痕,越来越迫切需要建立更多样化和更具抵御力的粮食系统。利用国家规模的农业和劳动力数据集,我们提出以下问题:1)当前美国农业景观在多大程度上生产出健康和多样化饮食所需的水果和蔬菜?2)这些景观有多多样?3)农民工如何支持果蔬生产和多样性?我们表明,美国农业景观不能生产健康和多样化饮食所需的水果和蔬菜。水果和蔬菜生产集中在该国的沿海地区,占用的土地很少,因此很难在全国范围内看到,跟踪和了解。此外,随着种植水果和蔬菜的农田比例的增加,水果和蔬菜的多样性减少,这表明大多数水果和蔬菜都是在简化的系统中种植的。最后,水果和蔬菜生产比例最高的县,H-2A农场工人证书的平均水平也最高,这表明随着水果和蔬菜生产的扩大,对外来劳动力的依赖不成比例。这项研究有助于理清我们在美国种植的东西和我们吃的东西之间的联系,缓和了在美国增加水果和蔬菜产量的呼声,但却没有调和这些现有系统积累的担忧。
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引用次数: 0
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Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment
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