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Food system adaptation and maintaining trade could mitigate global famine in abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios 在日照骤减的情况下,粮食系统的适应和维持贸易可减轻全球饥荒
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100807
Morgan Rivers , Michael Hinge , Kevin Rassool , Simon Blouin , Florian U. Jehn , Juan B. García Martínez , Vasco Amaral Grilo , Victor Jaeck , Ross J. Tieman , James Mulhall , Talib E. Butt , David C. Denkenberger
After a major nuclear war, volcanic eruption or asteroid or comet impact that causes an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario, agricultural yields would plummet. We analyzed a nuclear winter scenario involving the injection of 150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere using a linear optimization model with and without global food trade. We investigated the effects of loss of global food trade, some simple adaptations like rationing and storage of excess food for the coldest years, and rapid, large-scale deployment of food sources which are less dependent on present day climate (so called resilient foods) including cool tolerant crops, methane single cell protein, lignocellulosic sugar, greenhouse crops, and seaweed. In the worst case of no global food trade and no adaptations, the model predicts a global famine. However, scaling up resilient foods quickly could mitigate this for many countries. Maintaining global food trade would further alleviate pressure on local food systems, unlocking the potential to feed the entire global population. However, insufficient preparation, post-disaster conflict, or economic collapse would worsen outcomes and hinder adaptation.
在大规模核战争、火山爆发或小行星或彗星撞击导致日照骤减的情况下,农业产量将急剧下降。我们利用一个线性优化模型,在有和没有全球粮食贸易的情况下,分析了在平流层注入 150 吨烟尘的核冬天情景。我们研究了失去全球粮食贸易的影响、一些简单的适应措施(如在最寒冷的年份配给和储存多余的粮食)以及快速、大规模部署对当今气候依赖性较低的食物来源(所谓的弹性食物),包括耐寒作物、甲烷单细胞蛋白、木质纤维素糖、温室作物和海藻。在没有全球粮食贸易和不采取适应措施的最坏情况下,模型预测会出现全球饥荒。然而,迅速推广抗灾食品可以缓解许多国家的饥荒。维持全球粮食贸易将进一步减轻当地粮食系统的压力,释放养活全球人口的潜力。然而,准备不足、灾后冲突或经济崩溃将导致结果恶化,阻碍适应。
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引用次数: 0
Farming for the future: Understanding factors enabling the adoption of diversified farming systems 面向未来的农业:了解能够采用多样化农业系统的因素
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100820
Andrea Cecilia Sánchez Bogado , Natalia Estrada-Carmona , Damien Beillouin , Cecile Chéron-Bessou , Bruno Rapidel , Sarah K. Jones
Diversified farming practices offer a promising pathway to sustainable food production by providing economic, environmental, and social benefits to farmers and society. However, the factors influencing their adoption are poorly understood, hindering the development of effective promotion strategies.
This study presents a comprehensive global meta-analysis of 154 peer-reviewed studies analysing factors influencing adoption. We examined the effects of 71 factors across nine key categories—biophysical context, farm management characteristics, farmers’ attitudes, political and institutional context (access to knowledge, land tenure, financial risk management), and five forms of capital (financial, human, natural, physical, and social)—on the adoption of ten diversified practices in 42 countries across five UN regions.
Our results reveal that access to knowledge, social capital, and farmers’ attitudes are key enablers of adoption, surpassing financial, physical, human, and natural capital. Specifically, access to extension services, strong social networks, and perceived environmental benefits significantly correlate with adoption. Land ownership, household income, literacy levels, and shallow soils have smaller positive effects. The influence of these factors varies across practices and geographic contexts, highlighting the complex and multifaceted nature of adoption.
These findings emphasize the need for holistic agricultural initiatives and policies to promote the adoption of sustainable practices. Strategies that build technical knowledge and social capital and that are tailored to local contexts, sociocultural norms, and market structures, considering farmers' perceptions and attitudes through codesign processes, are more likely to succeed. Adaptive and context-specific strategies are crucial for fostering the widespread adoption of diversified farming practices and a more sustainable agricultural future.
多样化耕作方式为农民和社会带来经济、环境和社会效益,为可持续粮食生产提供了一条有希望的途径。然而,人们对影响其采用的因素了解甚少,从而阻碍了有效推广策略的制定。本研究对154项同行评议的研究进行了全面的全球荟萃分析,分析了影响采用的因素。我们研究了9个关键类别的71个因素——生物物理环境、农场管理特征、农民态度、政治和制度环境(获取知识、土地权属、金融风险管理)和5种资本形式(金融、人力、自然、物质和社会)——对联合国5个区域42个国家采用10种多样化做法的影响。我们的研究结果表明,获得知识、社会资本和农民的态度是推动采用的关键因素,超过了金融、物质、人力和自然资本。具体来说,获得扩展服务、强大的社会网络和感知到的环境效益与采用显著相关。土地所有权、家庭收入、文化水平和浅层土壤的积极影响较小。这些因素的影响因做法和地理环境而异,突出了收养的复杂性和多面性。这些调查结果强调需要采取全面的农业举措和政策,以促进采用可持续做法。建立技术知识和社会资本并根据当地情况、社会文化规范和市场结构量身定制的战略,通过共同设计过程考虑农民的看法和态度,更有可能取得成功。适应性和因地制宜的战略对于促进广泛采用多样化耕作方式和更可持续的农业未来至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Will the protein transition lead to sustainable food systems? 蛋白质转型能否带来可持续的粮食系统?
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100809
Wendy M.N. Jenkins , Luisa M. Trindade , Stacy Pyett , Barbara van Mierlo , David Welch , Hannah H.E. van Zanten
The term protein transition has gained increasing attention but what it concretely means is often unclear. We propose the protein transition to be a transition of the production, division, and consumption of animal derived products, how to reduce them and what could replace them to improve healthfulness, reduce environmental impact, and increase ethical aspects of food production. Proposed solutions including high-tech meat and dairy replacement strategies, plant breeding strategies, animal production strategies, and production systems strategies, are promising but face the risk for un-intended negative consequences. To achieve a sustainable food system utilizing the proposed solutions: animal derived products in high-income countries must be reduced, a whole diet approach is necessary, pathways for implementation must be better explored, and a food systems transformation supported by policy will ultimately be required.
蛋白质转型一词越来越受到关注,但其具体含义往往并不明确。我们建议蛋白质转型是指动物衍生产品的生产、分工和消费的转型,如何减少这些产品,以及用什么来替代它们,以提高健康水平、减少对环境的影响并提高食品生产的道德水平。提出的解决方案包括高科技肉类和乳制品替代战略、植物育种战略、动物生产战略和生产系统战略,这些方案前景广阔,但也面临着意外的负面影响风险。要利用所提出的解决方案实现可持续的粮食系统:必须减少高收入国家的动物衍生产品,必须采用全膳食方法,必须更好地探索实施路径,最终需要在政策支持下进行粮食系统转型。
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引用次数: 0
Whither the agricultural productivity-led model? Reconsidering resilient and inclusive rural transformation in the context of agrifood systems 农业生产力主导模式何去何从?在农粮系统背景下重新考虑有韧性和包容性的农村转型
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100812
Benjamin Davis , Ana Paula de la O Campos , Mohammad Farrae , Paul Winters
Agriculture has long been conceived as central to structural and rural transformation with agricultural productivity growth seen as a driving factor of economic growth and development. Promoting agricultural productivity has also been seen as fundamental to an inclusive process of rural transformation. The changing conditions faced by developing countries, combined with interregional inequality within middle-income nations and the urgent need to tackle climate change and ensure access to healthy diets further questions the relevance of the agricultural productivity-led model for promoting resilient and inclusive rural transformation. This paper argues that there remains an urgent need to enhance productivity in agriculture and agrifood systems, where relevant, for resilient and inclusive rural development. However, this effort requires a fundamentally new approach recognizing agriculture's heterogeneous roles and embedding inclusion more explicitly and more effectively to ensure widespread benefits and sustainable growth.
长期以来,农业一直被视为结构转型和农村转型的核心,农业生产率的提高被视为经济增长和发展的驱动因素。提高农业生产力也被视为包容性农村转型进程的根本。发展中国家面临的条件不断变化,加上中等收入国家内部地区间的不平等,以及应对气候变化和确保获得健康饮食的迫切需要,进一步质疑了以农业生产率为主导的模式对于促进具有复原力和包容性的农村转型的相关性。本文认为,仍然迫切需要酌情提高农业和农粮系统的生产率,以促进有韧性和包容性的农村发展。然而,这一努力需要一种全新的方法,承认农业的不同作用,并更明确、更有效地嵌入包容性,以确保广泛的利益和可持续增长。
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引用次数: 0
Resilient and inclusive rural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa under climate, demographic, and social change: Challenges and opportunities for income growth and job creation 撒哈拉以南非洲在气候、人口和社会变革下的弹性和包容性农村转型:增加收入和创造就业的挑战与机遇
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100815
Kate R. Schneider , Ana Paula De la O Campos , Romina Cavatassi , Benjamin Davis
With climate change, globalization, and the nutrition transition, agricultural productivity growth is proving insufficient to bring about resilient and inclusive rural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we review the evidence for a set of policy strategies, reflecting on how to expand labor opportunities and increase incomes with a focus on achieving greater inclusion. We argue that some well-known strategies remain critical for improving the efficiency of labor markets: expanding demand for labor and increasing formalization, especially in agrifood systems sectors. However, efficiency does not mean equality, and these strategies require careful targeting and intentional actions to redistribute resources to ensure inclusion. Whilst long-recognized strategies remain underfunded, initial endowments are essential to bring about inclusive transformation: growing human capital and productive resources and increasing women's empowerment. Finally, we suggest two emerging tools for labor market expansion and inclusivity: expanding jobs within the green transition and fostering resilient labor markets through social protection.
在气候变化、全球化和营养转型的背景下,农业生产率的增长已被证明不足以为撒哈拉以南非洲地区带来具有复原力和包容性的农村转型。在本文中,我们回顾了一系列政策战略的证据,思考了如何扩大劳动机会和增加收入,重点是实现更大的包容性。我们认为,一些众所周知的战略对于提高劳动力市场的效率仍然至关重要:扩大劳动力需求和提高正规化程度,尤其是在农粮系统部门。然而,效率并不意味着平等,这些战略需要仔细确定目标,并采取有意识的行动重新分配资源,以确保包容性。虽然长期以来公认的战略仍然资金不足,但初始禀赋对于实现包容性转型至关重要:增加人力资本和生产资源,增强妇女权能。最后,我们提出了扩大劳动力市场和实现包容性的两个新兴工具:在绿色转型中扩大就业岗位,以及通过社会保护促进有弹性的劳动力市场。
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引用次数: 0
Multisectoral behavior change intervention improves diet quality, but not food security, in rural Uganda 多部门行为改变干预措施改善了乌干达农村的饮食质量,但不能改善粮食安全
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100817
Regina Brown , Stacy Griswold , Carolyn Van Sant , Ian Moore , Yanlin Ren , Gloria Desire Kayo , Jackson Bagabirwa , Merry Fitzpatrick , Anastasia Marshak , Marlene Hebie , Hugo De Groote , Patrick Webb , Shibani Ghosh
Multi-sectoral interventions targeting nutrition have shown promise in low- and middle-income settings. A 1:1:1 multi-level cluster-randomized controlled trial assessed the impact of two 12-week social behavior change interventions called Nutrition Impact and Positive Practice (NIPP) and NIPP+. The NIPP intervention sought to improve participants’ food security, diet quality, and water, sanitation, and hygiene. The NIPP + intervention used additional nudges to improve agricultural practices. Nearly 900 households from 60 clusters in the Agago District of Uganda were randomized to one of three arms: Control, NIPP, and NIPP+. Impacts on maize yield, household food security, diet quality, and child anthropometry were assessed using generalized linear mixed models. Post-intervention, NIPP + children had 2 times increased odds of achieving a minimum acceptable diet (MAD) (OR = 2.04; 95% CI = 1.04, 3.99; p = 0.039) compared to control. One year post intervention, women in NIPP (OR = 2.27; 95% CI = 1.38, 3.74; p = 0.001) and NIPP+ (OR = 2.81; 95% CI = 1.71, 4.61; p < 0.000) had more than two times increased odds of achieving minimum dietary diversity (MDDW) compared to control, and children in NIPP + had a mean mid-upper arm circumference that was 0.217 cm higher (β = 0.217; 95% CI = 0.033, 0.402; p = 0.022) compared to control. We detected no significant effects on maize yield, household food security, or child dietary diversity. This study demonstrates the potential for the NIPP and NIPP + interventions to improve diet diversity, independent of improvements to either agricultural production or household food security.
针对营养的多部门干预措施在低收入和中等收入环境中显示出了希望。一项1:1:1的多层次集群随机对照试验评估了两项为期12周的社会行为改变干预措施的影响,即营养影响和积极实践(NIPP)和NIPP+。NIPP干预旨在改善参与者的食品安全、饮食质量、水、环境卫生和个人卫生。NIPP +干预措施使用了额外的推动措施来改善农业实践。来自乌干达Agago地区60个组群的近900户家庭被随机分为三个组:对照、NIPP和NIPP+。使用广义线性混合模型评估了对玉米产量、家庭粮食安全、饮食质量和儿童人体测量的影响。干预后,NIPP +儿童达到最低可接受饮食(MAD)的几率增加了2倍(OR = 2.04;95% ci = 1.04, 3.99;P = 0.039)。干预后1年,NIPP妇女(OR = 2.27;95% ci = 1.38, 3.74;p = 0.001)和NIPP+ (OR = 2.81;95% ci = 1.71, 4.61;p & lt;0.000)与对照组相比,达到最低膳食多样性(MDDW)的几率增加了两倍以上,NIPP +儿童的平均上臂中围高0.217厘米(β = 0.217;95% ci = 0.033, 0.402;P = 0.022)。我们没有发现对玉米产量、家庭粮食安全或儿童饮食多样性有显著影响。这项研究证明了NIPP和NIPP +干预措施在改善饮食多样性方面的潜力,而不依赖于农业生产或家庭粮食安全的改善。
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引用次数: 0
Agricultural and rural development interventions and poverty reduction: Global evidence from 16 impact assessment studies 农业和农村发展干预措施与减贫:来自 16 项影响评估研究的全球证据
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100806
Marup Hossain, Vibhuti Mendiratta, Sara Savastano

Agricultural and rural development interventions can reduce global poverty by providing growth-oriented tools, including access to finance, training, and markets. While such interventions effectively reduce monetary poverty (e.g., $1 a day poverty line), there is increasing interest in incorporating non-monetary poverty indicators, such as education, health, and living standards, to capture inherent multidimensionality in poverty. This study analyzes data from 16 impact evaluation studies conducted between 2019 and 2023 to examine whether and to what extent agricultural and rural development interventions affect multidimensional poverty of small-scale producers. Our analysis shows a 4 percent reduction in multidimensional poverty for treatment households compared to comparison households. Our findings suggest that agricultural and rural development interventions play a positive role in reducing poverty and have the potential to improve the long-term well-being of poor households.

农业和农村发展干预措施可以通过提供以增长为导向的工具(包括获得资金、培训和市场)来减少全球贫困。虽然此类干预措施能有效减少货币贫困(如每天 1 美元的贫困线),但人们越来越关注纳入非货币贫困指标,如教育、健康和生活水平,以捕捉贫困的内在多维性。本研究分析了 2019 年至 2023 年期间开展的 16 项影响评估研究的数据,以考察农业和农村发展干预措施是否以及在多大程度上影响了小规模生产者的多维贫困。我们的分析表明,与对比家庭相比,治疗家庭的多维贫困率降低了 4%。我们的研究结果表明,农业和农村发展干预措施在减少贫困方面发挥着积极作用,并有可能改善贫困家庭的长期福祉。
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引用次数: 0
Do diverse crops or diverse market purchases matter more for women's diet quality in farm households of Mali? 对马里农户中妇女的饮食质量而言,作物多样化还是市场采购多样化更重要?
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100813
Melinda Smale , Amidou Assima
Finding pathways to improve nutrition is vital to Mali. We apply a simultaneous equation model to test whether the diversity of crops grown on farms or local market purchases has a greater effect on the diet quality of 5930 farm women in Mali. Both on-farm crop diversity and the diversity of food sources purchased in local markets have strong positive associations with women's diet quality, but crop diversity effects are greater. A larger area share devoted to cereals reduces diet quality. Results are robust to the choice of diversity indicator. Market-based incentives at a regional and local scale could enhance on-farm crop diversity and stimulate both the production and trade of diverse food products in local markets: a win-win scenario.
寻找改善营养状况的途径对马里至关重要。我们采用了一个同步方程模型来检验是农场种植的作物多样性还是当地市场购买的食物对马里 5930 名农妇的饮食质量影响更大。农场作物多样性和在当地市场购买食物来源的多样性都与妇女的饮食质量有很强的正相关性,但作物多样性的影响更大。谷物种植面积越大,膳食质量越低。结果对多样性指标的选择具有稳健性。在区域和地方范围内采取以市场为基础的激励措施,可以提高农场作物的多样性,并刺激当地市场上多样化食品的生产和贸易:这是一个双赢的方案。
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引用次数: 0
Defining and measuring policy coherence for food system transformation: A scoping review 界定和衡量粮食系统转型的政策一致性:范围审查
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100803
Deviana Dewi , Destan Aytekin , Kate R. Schneider , Namukolo Covic , Jessica Fanzo , Stella Nordhagen , Danielle Resnick
Changes in food systems—across multiple sectors and through all levels of government—are essential for meeting many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other global environmental and health targets. Steering food systems towards common outcomes and ensuring that actions in one area do not undermine progress in another requires policy coherence. This scoping review examines how policy coherence has been broadly defined and measured in areas related to food system transformation to inform conceptualization, definition, and measurement specific to food systems transformation and provide insights for policy and program implementation. We reviewed literature published from January 2000 to December 2022 and identified 47 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Results show that common features of definitions of policy coherence relevant for food systems are: an emphasis on minimizing tradeoffs and maximizing synergies; policy integration within different areas of government and food systems or across scales (horizontal or vertical coherence); alignment of objectives, interventions, and indicators within a given policy area; and complementarity and consistency of actions and goals within or across sectors of food systems. Measurement methods to date are mainly limited to qualitative policy document review and participatory assessment, with no examples of application at scale. This paper provides a first step towards a definition and measurement approach for policy coherence that can fill this important data gap in monitoring the governance of food systems transformation and synthesizes evidence to guide actions towards greater policy coherence in governing national food systems.
要实现许多可持续发展目标(SDGs)以及其他全球环境和健康目标,就必须在多个部门和各级政府中改变粮食系统。引导粮食系统取得共同成果,确保一个领域的行动不会破坏另一个领域的进展,这需要政策的一致性。本范围综述研究了如何在与粮食系统转型相关的领域对政策一致性进行广泛定义和衡量,以便为粮食系统转型的具体概念化、定义和衡量提供信息,并为政策和计划的实施提供启示。我们查阅了 2000 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月期间发表的文献,确定了 47 项符合纳入标准的研究。结果表明,与粮食系统相关的政策一致性定义的共同特点是:强调最小化权衡和最大化协同;政府和粮食系统不同领域内或跨尺度的政策整合(横向或纵向一致性);特定政策领域内目标、干预措施和指标的一致性;粮食系统内部或跨部门行动和目标的互补性和一致性。迄今为止,衡量方法主要局限于定性政策文件审查和参与式评估,没有大规模应用的实例。本文为政策协调性的定义和衡量方法迈出了第一步,可填补监测粮食系统转型治理方面的这一重要数据空白,并综合证据,指导在治理国家粮食系统方面加强政策协调性的行动。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional food waste and the circular economy: Is it time to revisit produce waste in global food supply chains? 制度性食物浪费与循环经济:是时候重新审视全球食品供应链中的生产浪费了吗?
IF 9.8 1区 经济学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100819
Rukshan Mehta , Christie Oh
Food waste generated by large systems including hospitals and postsecondary institutions can greatly influence the reduction, reuse, recycling, and recovery of produce and other perishable waste items that are essential to human health and nutrition. We position the issue of food waste as it pertains to the circular economy to support the provision of fruits and vegetables through networks of food donating charitable organizations such as food banks in Canada. Similar models can be replicated in other settings where either government or private citizens can work with institutional partners to divert food susceptible to loss or waste to promote rescue. Added benefits include climate change reduction and support for improved planetary health. Wide-scale thinking is needed about these issues given the pertinence of global warming and climate change, and the need to sustain improved nutrition for our growing populations impacted by chronic diseases across the lifespan. Further study is needed to estimate the true quality and quantity (volume) of waste and benefits associated with diversion to human consumption related purposes.
包括医院和高等教育机构在内的大型系统产生的食物垃圾会极大地影响对人类健康和营养至关重要的农产品和其他易腐废物的减少、再利用、再循环和回收。我们将食物浪费问题定位为与循环经济相关的问题,通过加拿大食品银行等食品捐赠慈善组织网络支持水果和蔬菜的供应。类似的模式可以在其他环境中复制,在这些环境中,政府或私人公民可以与机构伙伴合作,将容易损失或浪费的粮食转移到促进救援的地方。其他好处包括减少气候变化和支持改善地球健康。考虑到全球变暖和气候变化的相关性,以及为受慢性疾病影响的不断增长的人口提供持续改善的营养的必要性,我们需要对这些问题进行广泛的思考。需要进一步研究,以估计废物的真正质量和数量(体积),以及将废物转用于与人类消费有关的目的所带来的利益。
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引用次数: 0
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Global Food Security-Agriculture Policy Economics and Environment
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