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Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge-Based Flood Risk Assessment Under Combined Scenarios of High Tides and Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China 在高潮和海平面上升综合情景下基于热带气旋风暴潮的洪水风险评估:中国海南岛案例研究
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004236
Ziying Zhou, Saini Yang, Fuyu Hu, Bingrui Chen, Xianwu Shi, Xiaoyan Liu

In the context of climate change, coastal flood risk is intensifying globally, particularly in China, where intricate coastlines and frequent tropical cyclones make storm surges a major concern. Despite local government's efforts to initiate coastal monitoring networks and qualitative risk guidelines, there remains a gap in detailed and efficient quantitative assessments for combinations of multiple sea-level components. To address this, we develop the Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge-based Flood Risk Assessment under Combined Scenarios (TCSoS-FRACS). This framework integrates impacts of storm surges, high tides, and sea-level rise using a hybrid of statistical and dynamic models to balance reliability and efficiency. By combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, it incorporates economic and demographic factors for a deeper understanding of risk composition. Applying TCSoS-FRACS to Hainan Island reveals that the combined effects of storm surges, high tides, and sea-level rise significantly amplify local coastal flood risk, increasing economic losses to 4.27–5.90 times and affected populations to 4.96–6.23 times. Additionally, transitioning from Fossil-fueled Development (SSP5-8.5) to Sustainability (SSP1-1.9) can reduce the risk increase by approximately half. The equivalence in flood hazard between current high tides and future sea level under a sustainable scenario boosts confidence in climate change adaptation efforts. However, coastal cities with low hazard but high exposure need heightened vigilance in flood defense, as future risk could escalate sharply. Our study provides new insights into coastal flood risk on Hainan Island and other regions with similar profiles, offering a transferable and efficient tool for disaster risk management and aiding in regional sustainable development.

在气候变化的背景下,全球沿海洪水风险正在加剧,特别是在中国,错综复杂的海岸线和频繁的热带气旋使风暴潮成为一个主要问题。尽管地方政府努力启动海岸监测网络并制定定性风险指南,但在对多种海平面成分组合进行详细、高效的定量评估方面仍存在差距。为此,我们开发了基于热带气旋风暴潮的综合情景下洪水风险评估(TCSoS-FRACS)。该框架综合了风暴潮、高潮和海平面上升的影响,采用了统计和动态混合模型,以平衡可靠性和效率。通过将危害、风险暴露和脆弱性结合起来,该框架还纳入了经济和人口因素,以加深对风险构成的理解。将 TCSoS-FRACS 应用于海南岛的结果表明,风暴潮、高潮和海平面上升的综合影响显著放大了当地的沿海洪水风险,使经济损失增加到 4.27-5.90 倍,受灾人口增加到 4.96-6.23 倍。此外,从化石燃料发展(SSP5-8.5)过渡到可持续发展(SSP1-1.9)可将风险增加降低约一半。在可持续发展情景下,目前的涨潮与未来海平面之间的洪水风险相等,这增强了人们对气候变化适应工作的信心。然而,由于未来的风险可能会急剧上升,因此低危害但高暴露的沿海城市需要在洪水防御方面提高警惕。我们的研究为了解海南岛及其他类似地区的沿海洪水风险提供了新的视角,为灾害风险管理和区域可持续发展提供了可借鉴的有效工具。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land-Ocean Coupling Scheme 采用陆地-海洋耦合方案的地球系统模型模拟的海平面上升对沿海地下水位的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004479
Donghui Xu, Gautam Bisht, Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Lingcheng Li, Han Qiu, L. Ruby Leung

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land-ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land-ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state-of-the-science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR-induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land-ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land-ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR-induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land-ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

海平面上升(SLR)通过海水侵入淡水含水层对沿海环境构成严重威胁。地下水位的上升也加剧了沿海地区的冲积洪水、河道洪水和地下水洪水的风险。然而,目前的地球系统模式(ESM)通常忽略了陆地-海洋界面的水交换。为了弥补这一缺陷,我们在最先进的地球系统模型--能源超大规模地球系统模型第二版(ESMv2)中开发了一种新的陆地-海洋水文耦合方案。新方案包括海水与地下水之间的横向交换,以及可持续土地退化引起的淹没所驱动的海水垂直渗透。利用更新的 E3SMv2 对全球陆地-海洋界面进行了模拟,以评估在高二氧化碳排放情景下可持续土地退化对沿海地下水的影响。到本世纪中叶,海水对淹没区的渗透将成为陆地-海洋耦合过程的主要组成部分,而横向地下水流交换将小得多。可持续土地退化引起的海水入渗将提高地下水位,增强蒸发蒸腾作用,增加径流,并在未来全球范围内形成明显的空间格局。虽然耦合过程是由可持续土地退化引起的,但我们发现地形和温度变暖对耦合影响的控制更大,这可能是由于所选未来时期可持续土地退化的幅度相对较小。总之,我们的研究表明,陆地与海洋交界处的地下水和海水交换量很大,这需要在无害环境管理中加以考虑。
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引用次数: 0
Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique 南佛罗里达未来气候预测:利用混合统计偏差校正技术提高气温和降水极端值的准确性
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004531
Leila Rahimi, Mushfiqul Hoque, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Nasrin Alamdari, Vasubandhu Misra, Ana Carolina Maran, Shih-Chieh Kao, Amir AghaKouchak, Rocky Talchabhadel

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

预测未来的气候变量对于了解洪水和干旱等水文气候灾害的潜在影响至关重要。由于全球气候模型(GCM)的空间分辨率较低,评估这些影响具有挑战性;因此,偏差校正被广泛使用。在此,我们采用了两种统计方法--标准经验量化绘图(EQM)和一种混合方法--EQM 与线性校正(EQM-LIN)--对九个 GCM 模拟的降水和气温进行了偏差校正。我们利用南佛罗里达州 20 个气象站的历史观测数据,预测了三种共同社会经济路径 (SSP) 下的未来气候。与 EQM 相比,混合 EQM-LIN 方法将历史时期每日定量值的 R2 提高了 30%,并将包含最多极端值的月份的 MAE 提高了 70%。气象站预测的极端降水量显示,与 EQM-LIN 方法相比,EQM 方法在 SSP585 中低估了高达 26% 的高定量值。从历史时期(1985-2014 年)到近期未来(2040-2069 年)和远期未来(2070-2100 年),整个研究区域的年最大降水量预计变化在 2% 到 16% 之间。预测的未来降水量表明,夏季降水量略有减少,但秋季降水量有所增加。这与夏季气温升高一起表明,在未来气候条件下,南佛罗里达州可能会经历夏季变暖和秋季洪水增加的快速波动。此外,我们与全球和国家降尺度研究的比较分析表明,这种粗尺度研究不能很好地代表极端气候,尤其是高量级降水。
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引用次数: 0
The Key Role of Temporal Stratification for GCM Bias Correction in Climate Impact Assessments 气候影响评估中时间分层对 GCM 偏差校正的关键作用
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004242
Nicolás A. Vásquez, Pablo A. Mendoza, Wouter J. M. Knoben, Louise Arnal, Miguel Lagos-Zúñiga, Martyn Clark, Ximena Vargas

Characterizing climate change impacts on water resources typically relies on Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs that are bias-corrected using observational data sets. In this process, two pivotal decisions are (a) the Bias Correction Method (BCM) and (b) how to handle the historically observed time series, which can be used as a continuous whole (i.e., without dividing it into sub-periods), or partitioned into monthly, seasonal (e.g., 3 months), or any other temporal stratification (TS). Here, we examine how the interplay between the choice of BCM, TS, and the raw GCM seasonality may affect historical portrayals and projected changes. To this end, we use outputs from 29 GCMs belonging to the CMIP6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 scenario, using seven BCMs and three TSs (entire period, seasonal, and monthly). The results show that the effectiveness of BCMs in removing biases can vary depending on the TS and climate indices analyzed. Further, the choice of BCM and TS may yield different projected change signals and seasonality (especially for precipitation), even for climate models with low bias and a reasonable representation of precipitation seasonality during a reference period. Because some BCMs may be computationally expensive, we recommend using the linear scaling method as a diagnostics tool to assess how the choice of TS may affect the projected precipitation seasonality of a specific GCM. More generally, the results presented here unveil trade-offs in how BCMs are applied, regardless of the climate regime, urging the hydroclimate community to carefully implement these techniques.

确定气候变化对水资源的影响通常依赖于利用观测数据集进行偏差校正的全球气候模式(GCM)输出结果。在此过程中,有两个关键决定:(a) 偏差校正方法 (BCM);(b) 如何处理历史上观测到的时间序列,可以将其作为一个连续的整体(即不划分为子时期),或划分为月度、季节(如 3 个月)或任何其他时间分层 (TS)。在此,我们将研究 BCM、TS 和原始 GCM 季节性之间的相互作用如何影响历史描述和预测变化。为此,我们使用了属于 CMIP6 的 29 个 GCM 在共享社会经济路径 5-8.5 情景下的输出结果,并使用了 7 种 BCM 和 3 种 TS(全周期、季节和月度)。结果表明,根据所分析的 TS 和气候指数的不同,BCM 在消除偏差方面的效果也会不同。此外,即使对于偏差较小且合理反映了参考时段降水季节性的气候模式,选择 BCM 和 TS 也可能产生不同的预测变化信号和季节性(尤其是降水)。由于某些 BCM 的计算成本可能很高,我们建议使用线性缩放方法作为诊断工具,以评估 TS 的选择如何影响特定 GCM 的降水季节性预测。总体而言,本文介绍的结果揭示了在应用生物累积模型时的权衡取舍,无论气候制度如何,敦促水文气候界谨慎应用这些技术。
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引用次数: 0
Joint Occurrence of Extreme Water Level and River Flows in St. Lawrence River Coasts Under Present and Sea Level Rise Conditions 当前和海平面上升条件下圣劳伦斯河沿岸极端水位和河水流量的共同发生情况
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004027
Mohammad Bizhanimanzar, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Denis Lefaivre, Edouard Mailhot

In low-lying coastal regions, the joint occurrence of high river flow and high water levels can cause coastal flooding with substantial economic and social implications. Recent studies over Canada's coasts have shown that neglecting the interdependency between flood drivers can underestimate the risk of flooding by up to 50%. However, to date, such interdependency has not been investigated for the coasts of the St. Lawrence River, Estuary and Gulf system (StL), where Sea Level Rise (SLR), along with intensified river peaks, are already threatening these communities. In this study, a copula-based bivariate frequency analysis was applied to quantify the likelihood of occurrence of flooding events under dependent and independent assumptions, for 26 sites along the StL. Furthermore, to quantify the impact of anthropogenic climate change, the joint return period in historical period was compared with that of projected SLR associated with RCP 8.5 for the year 2100. Results show that (a) the independence assumption can underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event in the Fluvial Section of the StL by up to 30 times and (b) the SLR can increase the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event by up to 50 times in the Estuary and the Gulf and by up to 5 times in the Fluvial Section of the StL. This study highlights the need for explicit consideration of the dependence between flood drivers and of SLR in the delineation of flood maps along the coast of the St. Lawrence.

在地势低洼的沿海地区,高河水流量和高水位的共同作用会导致沿岸洪水泛滥,对经 济和社会产生重大影响。最近对加拿大沿海地区的研究表明,忽视洪水驱动因素之间的相互依存关系,会低估高达 50%的洪水风险。然而,迄今为止,这种相互依存关系尚未在圣劳伦斯河、河口和海湾系统(StL)沿岸得到研究,那里的海平面上升(SLR)以及加剧的河流峰值已经威胁到这些社区。在这项研究中,采用了基于 copula 的双变量频率分析方法,对圣劳伦斯河沿岸 26 个地点的洪水事件发生的可能性进行了量化,包括依赖假设和独立假设。此外,为了量化人为气候变化的影响,将历史时期的联合重现期与 2100 年与 RCP 8.5 相关的预测可持续土地退化速率进行了比较。结果表明:(a) 独立性假设可低估圣莱科特河冲积段发生洪水事件的可能性达 30 倍;(b) 可持续土地退化可使河口和海湾发生洪水事件的可能性增加达 50 倍,使圣莱科特河冲积段发生洪水事件的可能性增加达 5 倍。这项研究强调,在绘制圣劳伦斯沿岸洪水图时,需要明确考虑洪水驱动因素与可持续土地退化和干旱之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Towards a Less Habitable Ocean 迈向不那么适宜居住的海洋
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004879
Yeray Santana-Falcón

Ocean warming and associated deoxygenation caused by anthropogenic global warming are impacting marine ecosystems. This article contextualizes and provides perspectives on key insights from a recently published study by Fröb et al. in Earth's Future (2024). The authors employ historical and high-emission scenario simulations through a state-of-the-art Earth system model to detect abrupt and persistent changes in the viability of marine habitats by leveraging an ecophysiological framework that quantifies how temperature and oxygen jointly limit the distribution of life in the ocean for a number of ecophysiotypes. A changepoint analysis is used to objectively detect shifts in decadal to multi-decadal mean states in potential marine habitats. They observe a decrease in the ocean volume capable of providing viable habitats for those ecophysiotypes with positive sensitivity to hypoxia. About half of these decreases occur abruptly, thus highlighting potential risks on the capacity of marine organisms to cope with a changing environment.

全球人为变暖导致的海洋变暖和相关的脱氧现象正在影响海洋生态系统。本文介绍了 Fröb 等人最近在《地球的未来》(2024 年)上发表的一项研究的背景,并对其中的关键见解提出了自己的观点。作者通过最先进的地球系统模型,采用历史和高排放情景模拟,利用生态生理学框架,量化温度和氧气如何共同限制海洋生物分布,从而检测海洋栖息地生存能力的突然和持续变化。变化点分析用于客观检测潜在海洋栖息地十年至数十年平均状态的变化。他们观察到,能够为对缺氧有积极敏感性的生态生物类型提供生存栖息地的海洋体积有所减少。其中约有一半的减少是突然发生的,从而凸显了海洋生物应对不断变化的环境的能力所面临的潜在风险。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change 森林管理引起的生产力变化对未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004878
Meng Luo, Adam Daigneault, Xin Zhao, Dalei Hao, Min Chen

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

预计未来人为土地利用和土地覆被变化(LULCC)仍将持续。然而,森林管理对森林生产力变化以及随后的土地利用、土地覆被和碳储量变化预测的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究探讨了森林管理引起的森林生产力变化对整个 21 世纪 LULCC 的影响。具体来说,我们开发了一个框架,将全球变化分析模型和全球木材模型柔和地结合起来,以考虑森林管理引起的森林生产力变化,并预测五种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 中未来的 LULCC。我们发现,未来森林管理强度的增加总体上推动了森林生产力的提高。森林管理引起的森林生产力变化在所有 SSP 中都表现出不同的反应,从 2015 年到 2100 年的全球增幅从 3.9% (SSP3)到 8.8% (SSP1)不等。这进一步导致 2100 年土地利用类型发生变化的总面积总体减少,其中 SSP1 的减少幅度最大(-7.5%),SSP3 的减少幅度最小(-0.7%)。在土地利用类型中,考虑森林管理引起的变化可显著减少管理林的扩张,同时也可减少 2100 年各 SSP 天然土地的损失。这表明,忽略森林管理引起的森林生产力变化会低估木材生产的效率,高估为满足未来需求所需的人工林扩张,从而可能给碳循环和生物多样性等相关分析带来不确定性。因此,我们主张在未来的土地利用、土地利用的变化和碳的变化预测中更好地考虑森林管理的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Persistent Extreme Surface Solar Radiation and Its Implications on Solar Photovoltaics 持续极端地表太阳辐射及其对太阳能光伏技术的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004266
G. Senger, B. Chtirkova, D. Folini, J. Wohland, M. Wild

Climatic extreme events are important because they can strongly impact humans, infrastructure, and biodiversity and will be affected by a changing climate. Surface Solar Radiation (SSR) is the primary energy source for solar photovoltaics (PV), which will be indispensable in future zero-emissions energy systems. Despite their pivotal role, extreme events in SSR remain under-documented. We provide a starting point in extreme SSR analysis by focusing on events caused by internal variability alone and therefore building a baseline for future extreme SSR research. We analyze extreme SSR events using daily-mean data from the pre-industrial control simulations (piControl) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 6. We investigate their role in PV energy generation using the Global Solar Energy Estimator with the intent of strengthening the energy system's resilience. Our results show a pronounced asymmetry between consecutive days with extremely high and extremely low solar radiation over land, the former occurring more frequently than the latter. Moreover, our results call for detailed PV generation modeling that includes panel geometry. Simple models based on linear SSR representations prove insufficient due to pronounced seasonal variations and strong non-linear SSR dependency of high extremes. Our results demonstrate how climate model results can be leveraged to understand persistent radiation extremes that are relevant for future energy systems.

气候极端事件非常重要,因为它们会对人类、基础设施和生物多样性造成严重影响,并将受到气候变化的影响。地表太阳辐射(SSR)是太阳能光伏发电(PV)的主要能源,在未来的零排放能源系统中不可或缺。尽管其作用举足轻重,但地表太阳辐射极端事件的记录仍然不足。我们通过关注仅由内部变率引起的事件,为极端 SSR 分析提供了一个起点,从而为未来的极端 SSR 研究建立了一个基线。我们利用耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段的工业化前控制模拟(piControl)中的日均值数据分析了极端 SSR 事件。我们利用全球太阳能估算器研究了它们在光伏发电中的作用,旨在加强能源系统的恢复能力。我们的研究结果表明,陆地上太阳辐射极高和极低的连续天数之间存在明显的不对称性,前者出现的频率高于后者。此外,我们的结果还要求建立详细的光伏发电模型,其中包括电池板的几何形状。基于线性 SSR 表示的简单模型被证明是不够的,因为存在明显的季节性变化和高极端太阳辐射的强烈非线性 SSR 依赖性。我们的研究结果展示了如何利用气候模型结果来了解与未来能源系统相关的持续极端辐射。
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引用次数: 0
IMO2020 Regulations Accelerate Global Warming by up to 3 Years in UKESM1 IMO2020 法规将英国的全球变暖速度加快达 3 年之久ESM1
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF005011
G. Jordan, M. Henry

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced new regulations on the sulfur content of shipping emissions in 2020 (IMO2020). Estimates of the climatic impact of this global reduction in anthropogenic sulfate aerosols vary widely. Here, we contribute to narrowing this uncertainty with two sets of climate model simulations using UKESM1. Using fixed sea-surface temperature atmosphere-only simulations, we estimate an IMO2020 global effective radiative forcing of 0.139 ± 0.019 Wm−2 and show that most of this forcing is due to aerosol-induced changes to cloud properties. Using coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations, we note significant changes in cloud top droplet number concentration and size across regions with high shipping traffic density, and—in the North Atlantic and North Pacific—these microphysical changes translate to a decrease in cloud albedo. We show that IMO2020 increases global annual surface temperature on average by 0.046 ± 0.010°C across 2020–2029; approximately 2–3 years of global warming. Furthermore, our model simulations show that IMO2020 helps to explain the exceptional warming in 2023, but other factors are needed to fully account for it. The year 2023 also had an exceptionally large decrease in reflected shortwave radiation at the top-of-atmosphere. Our results show that IMO2020 made that more likely, yet the observations are within the variability of simulations without the reduction in shipping emissions. To better understand the climatic impacts of IMO2020, a model intercomparison project would be valuable whilst the community waits for a more complete observational record.

国际海事组织(IMO)于 2020 年出台了关于航运排放硫含量的新规定(IMO2020)。对全球人为硫酸盐气溶胶减少对气候影响的估计差异很大。在此,我们利用 UKESM1 进行了两组气候模型模拟,以缩小这种不确定性。利用固定海面温度的纯大气模拟,我们估算出 IMO2020 全球有效辐射强迫为 0.139 ± 0.019 Wm-2,并表明该强迫的大部分是由于气溶胶引起的云特性变化造成的。利用海洋-大气耦合模拟,我们注意到在航运密度高的地区,云顶液滴数量浓度和大小发生了显著变化,在北大西洋和北太平洋,这些微物理变化转化为云反照率的下降。我们的研究表明,在 2020-2029 年期间,IMO2020 使全球年平均表面温度上升了 0.046 ± 0.010°C,大约相当于全球变暖 2-3 年。此外,我们的模型模拟显示,IMO2020 有助于解释 2023 年的异常变暖,但还需要其他因素才能完全解释。2023 年大气顶部反射的短波辐射也出现了异常大幅度的下降。我们的研究结果表明,IMO2020 使这种情况更有可能发生,但观测结果却在没有减少航运排放的情况下的模拟变异范围内。为了更好地了解 IMO2020 对气候的影响,在社会各界等待更完整的观测记录的同时,一个模型相互比较项目将是非常有价值的。
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引用次数: 0
On Thin Ice: Solar Geoengineering to Manage Tipping Element Risks in the Cryosphere by 2040 如履薄冰:太阳地球工程在 2040 年前控制冰冻圈的临界点风险
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004797
Wake Smith, Madeline F. Bartels, Jasper G. Boers, Christian V. Rice

Tipping elements are features of the climate system that can display self-reinforcing and non-linear responses if pushed beyond a certain threshold (the “tipping point”). Models suggest that we may surpass several of these tipping points in the next few decades, irrespective of which emissions pathway humanity follows. Some tipping elements reside in the Arctic and Antarctic and could potentially be avoided or arrested via a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) program applied only at the poles. This paper considers the utility of proactively developing the capacity to respond to emergent tipping element threats at the poles as a matter of risk management. It then examines both the air and ground infrastructure that would be required to operationalize such capability by 2040 and finds that this would require a funded launch decision by a financially credible actor by roughly 2030.

临界要素是气候系统的特征,如果被推到某个临界点("临界点")之外,气候系统就会表现出自我强化和非线性反应。模型显示,无论人类遵循哪种排放途径,我们都可能在未来几十年内超过其中几个临界点。一些临界点位于北极和南极,有可能通过仅在两极实施平流层气溶胶注入计划(SAI)来避免或阻止。本文认为,作为一个风险管理问题,积极发展应对极地突发临界要素威胁的能力非常有用。然后,它研究了到 2040 年使这种能力投入运行所需的空中和地面基础设施,并发现这将需要一个有资金信誉的行动者在大约 2030 年之前做出资助发射的决定。
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Earths Future
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