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Robust Hydropower Planning Balances Energy Generation, Carbon Emissions and Sediment Connectivity in the Mekong River Basin 稳健的水电规划可平衡湄公河流域的发电量、碳排放量和泥沙连通性
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF003647
M. Tangi, R. Schmitt, R. Almeida, S. Bossi, A. Flecker, F. Sala, A. Castelletti

We present a framework for strategic dam planning under uncertainty, which includes GHG emissions mitigation as a novel objective. We focus on the Mekong River Basin, a fast-developing region heavily relying on river-derived ecosystem services. We employ a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to identify strategic dam portfolios for different hydropower expansion targets, using process-related and statistical models to derive indicators of sediment supply disruption and GHG emissions. We introduce a robust optimization approach that explores variations in optimal portfolio compositions for more than 5,000 state-of-the-world configurations, regarding sediment origins and trapping and GHG emissions. Thus, we can rank dam projects' attractiveness based on their frequency of inclusion in optimal portfolios and explore how uncertainty affects these rankings. Our results suggest that developing dams in the upper Mekong would be a more robust option for near-term development than, for example, the lower Mekong and its tributaries, for both environmental and energy objectives. Our work presents a novel approach to better understand the basin-scale cumulative impacts of dam development in high-uncertainty, data-scarce contexts like the Mekong Basin.

我们提出了一个不确定条件下的大坝战略规划框架,其中包括温室气体减排这一新颖目标。我们将重点放在湄公河流域,这是一个严重依赖河流生态系统服务的快速发展地区。我们采用多目标进化算法来确定不同水电扩张目标的战略大坝组合,并利用过程相关模型和统计模型得出泥沙供应中断和温室气体排放指标。我们引入了一种稳健的优化方法,针对泥沙来源、泥沙截留和温室气体排放等方面,探索 5,000 多种最新配置的最佳组合构成的变化。因此,我们可以根据大坝项目被纳入最优组合的频率对其吸引力进行排序,并探讨不确定性如何影响这些排序。我们的研究结果表明,与湄公河下游及其支流等地相比,在湄公河上游开发大坝对于近期开发而言是一个更稳健的选择,这既符合环境目标,也符合能源目标。我们的研究提出了一种新颖的方法,可以更好地了解在湄公河流域等高不确定性、数据稀缺的情况下大坝开发在流域范围内的累积影响。
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引用次数: 0
Response of a Terrestrial Polar Ecosystem to the March 2022 Antarctic Weather Anomaly 陆地极地生态系统对 2022 年 3 月南极天气异常现象的反应
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-31 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004306
J. E. Barrett, Byron J. Adams, Peter T. Doran, Hilary A. Dugan, Krista F. Myers, Mark R. Salvatore, Sarah N. Power, Meredith D. Snyder, Anna T. Wright, Michael N. Gooseff

Record high temperatures were documented in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, on 18 March 2022, exceeding average temperatures for that day by nearly 30°C. Satellite imagery and stream gage measurements indicate that surface wetting coincided with this warming more than 2 months after peak summer thaw and likely exceeded thresholds for rehydration and activation of resident organisms that typically survive the cold and dry conditions of the polar fall in a freeze-dried state. This weather event is notable in both the timing and magnitude of the warming and wetting when temperatures exceeded 0°C at a time when biological communities and streams have typically entered a persistent frozen state. Such events may be a harbinger of future climate conditions characterized by warmer temperatures and greater thaw in this region of Antarctica, which could influence the distribution, activity, and abundance of sentinel taxa. Here we describe the ecosystem responses to this weather anomaly reporting on meteorological and hydrological measurements across the region and on later biological observations from Canada Stream, one of the most diverse and productive ecosystems within the McMurdo Dry Valleys.

据记录,2022年3月18日,南极洲麦克默多干谷的气温创下历史新高,比当天的平均气温高出近30摄氏度。卫星图像和溪流测量仪的测量结果表明,在夏季解冻高峰过去两个多月后,地表湿润与升温同时发生,很可能超过了居民生物补水和活化的阈值,而这些生物通常在极地秋季寒冷干燥的条件下以冻干状态存活。在生物群落和溪流通常进入持续冰冻状态的时候,气温却超过了 0°C,这种天气事件在升温和湿润的时间和程度上都是值得注意的。此类事件可能预示着南极洲这一地区未来气候条件的特点是温度升高和解冻加剧,这可能会影响哨点分类群的分布、活动和丰度。在这里,我们将根据对整个地区的气象和水文测量结果,以及后来对加拿大溪(麦克默多干谷中最多样化和最富饶的生态系统之一)的生物观察结果,描述生态系统对这种气候异常的反应。
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引用次数: 0
Enhanced Carbon Accumulation in China's New Coastal Wetlands Over the 21st Century 21 世纪中国沿海新湿地碳积累的加强
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004500
Xiaoyi Shen, Chang-Qing Ke, Yu Cai, Haili Li, Yao Xiao

Wetlands formed by natural sediment deposition account for a large proportion of new coastal lands, and these new wetlands usually have active ecosystems and obvious ecological effects. However, previous studies largely overlooked this sediment-caused wetland expansion, and the spatiotemporal variation in these wetlands and future response to sea-level rise (SLR) have not been determined. Here, we employed satellite observations to quantify the seaward expansion of coastal lands in China over the past two decades. A total land expansion of 6,651 km2 was found, and wetlands and artificial surfaces dominated, accounting for 32% and 25%, respectively. Subsequently, we utilized an integrated model to estimate the response of these new wetlands to SLR in the 21st century, that is, we estimated the wetland gain from sediment deposition and loss due to SLR. The results indicate that under the current condition of sediment availability, the area of China's new coastal wetlands is projected to increase by 200%–261% compared to that in 2020 based on four SLR scenarios, despite the unavoidable impact of SLR. These increases are accompanied by the continuous enhancement of carbon accumulation. Wetland changes are influenced by factors such as sediment deposition, SLR and storm surges, as well as the continued effect of local natural and anthropogenic factors. These results show the importance of understanding the ecological effects of new wetlands and constructing specific protection measures for sustainable development.

天然沉积物沉积形成的湿地在沿海新增土地中占很大比例,这些新湿地通常具有活跃的生态系统和明显的生态效应。然而,以往的研究大多忽略了这种由沉积物造成的湿地扩张,这些湿地的时空变化以及未来对海平面上升(SLR)的响应尚未确定。在此,我们利用卫星观测数据对过去二十年中国沿海陆地向海扩展的情况进行了量化。结果发现,中国沿海陆地向海扩展的总面积为 6651 平方公里,其中以湿地和人工地表为主,分别占 32% 和 25%。随后,我们利用综合模型估算了这些新增湿地在 21 世纪对可持续土地退化的响应,即估算了沉积物沉积和可持续土地退化造成的湿地增益。结果表明,在当前泥沙供应条件下,尽管可持续土地退化的影响不可避免,但根据四种可持续土地退化情景预测,中国新增滨海湿地面积将比 2020 年增加 200%-261% 。这些增长伴随着碳积累的持续增加。湿地的变化受到沉积物沉积、可持续土地退化和风暴潮等因素的影响,以及当地自然和人为因素的持续影响。这些结果表明,了解新湿地的生态效应并为可持续发展制定具体的保护措施非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Challenges, Advances and Opportunities in Regional Sea Level Projections: The Role of Ocean-Shelf Dynamics 区域海平面预测的挑战、进展和机遇:洋架动力学的作用
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004886
Svetlana Jevrejeva, Francisco M. Calafat, Michela De Dominicis, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Jennifer V. Mecking, Jeff A. Polton, Bablu Sinha, Anthony Wise, Jason Holt

Future sea level rise and changes in extreme weather will increase the frequency of flooding and intensify the risks for the millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas. Concerns about coastal adaptation have been broadened due to societal awareness of the threat from rising seas, leading to a large set of potential adaptation users with diverse needs for adequate sea level projections in coastal areas beyond the current state of the art regional projections. In this paper, we provide an overview of the potential steps for improvement of regional sea level projections along the global coastline, with specific focus on the contribution from ocean dynamics to seasonal-decadal variability of coastal sea level, and its implications for changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme sea levels. We discuss the key gaps in our knowledge and predictive capability of these dynamics as they relate to sea level variability on seasonal to decadal timescales, and conclude by suggesting ways in which these knowledge gaps could be addressed.

未来海平面的上升和极端天气的变化将增加洪水发生的频率,加剧生活在沿海低洼地区的数百万人的风险。由于全社会都意识到了海平面上升的威胁,对沿海地区适应问题的关注也随之扩大,这就导致了大量潜在的适应用户,他们对沿海地区的海平面预测有着不同的需求,而不仅仅局限于目前最先进的区域预测。在本文中,我们概述了改进全球沿岸区域海平面预测的潜在步骤,重点是海洋动力学对沿岸海平面十年一季变化的贡献,及其对极端海平面频率和幅度变化的影响。我们讨论了在这些动力学知识和预测能力方面存在的主要差距,因为它们与海平面的季 度-十年时间尺度变化有关,最后提出了解决这些知识差距的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial Correlation Increase in Single-Sensor Satellite Data Reveals Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience 单传感器卫星数据的空间相关性增加揭示了亚马逊雨林复原力的丧失
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004040
Lana L. Blaschke, Da Nian, Sebastian Bathiany, Maya Ben-Yami, Taylor Smith, Chris A. Boulton, Niklas Boers

The Amazon rainforest (ARF) is threatened by deforestation and climate change, which could trigger a regime shift to a savanna-like state. Whilst previous work has suggested that forest resilience has declined in recent decades, that work was based only on local resilience indicators, and moreover was potentially biased by the employed multi-sensor and optical satellite data and undetected anthropogenic land-use change. Here, we show that the average correlation between neighboring grid cells' vegetation time series, which is referred to as spatial correlation, provides a more robust resilience indicator than local estimations. We employ it to measure resilience changes in the ARF, based on single-sensor Vegetation Optical Depth data under conservative exclusion of human activity. Our results show an overall loss of resilience until around 2019, which is especially pronounced in the southwestern and northern Amazon for the time period from 2002 to 2011. The results from the reliable spatial correlation indicator suggest that in particular the southwest of the ARF has experienced pronounced resilience loss over the last two decades.

亚马逊雨林(ARF)正受到森林砍伐和气候变化的威胁,这可能会引发向热带稀树草原状态的转变。虽然之前的研究表明森林的恢复力在最近几十年有所下降,但该研究仅基于当地的恢复力指标,而且所采用的多传感器和光学卫星数据以及未发现的人为土地利用变化可能会造成偏差。在这里,我们表明,相邻网格单元植被时间序列之间的平均相关性(即空间相关性)提供了比局部估算更可靠的恢复力指标。在保守排除人类活动的情况下,我们根据单传感器植被光学深度数据,利用空间相关性来衡量 ARF 的恢复力变化。我们的结果表明,直到 2019 年左右,恢复力总体上有所下降,尤其是在亚马逊西南部和北部,从 2002 年到 2011 年这段时间,这种下降尤为明显。可靠的空间相关性指标的结果表明,在过去二十年里,亚马逊区域森林西南部的恢复力损失尤为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Its Impact on Oilseed Crop Yields in China 热带海洋表面温度变化及其对中国油料作物产量的影响
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004251
Yi Zhou, Tianyi Zhang, Xichen Li

Understanding how climate variability affects oilseed yields is crucial for ensuring a stable oil supply in regions such as China, where self-sufficiency in edible vegetable oils is low. Here, we found coherent patterns in the interannual variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies and percent crop yield anomalies in the three ocean basins, and then quantified the contribution of these SST modes to oilseed crop yield anomalies. Our analysis revealed that, at the national level, the six tropical SST modes collectively accounted for 51% of soybean, 52% of rapeseed, and 33% of peanut yield anomalies in China. Tropical Indian Ocean variability exerts the greatest impact on soybean and peanut yield variability, whereas the most significant impact on rapeseed yield anomalies is attributed to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Finally, this study examined the specific ways in which changes in SST modes can affect oilseed crop yields using changes in local meteorological variables. Our findings revealed the relationship between tropical SST variability and oilseed crop yields, providing a detailed understanding of the diverse connections between SST modes and oilseed crop yield. This study deepens our knowledge of the influence of climate variability on agriculture, offering valuable insights for devising strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate variability on oilseed crop production in China.

在中国等食用植物油自给率较低的地区,了解气候多变性如何影响油籽产量对于确保稳定的油料供应至关重要。在这里,我们发现了三大海洋盆地海面温度(SST)异常年际变率和作物产量百分率异常的一致模式,然后量化了这些SST模式对油料作物产量异常的贡献。我们的分析表明,在全国范围内,六种热带 SST 模式合计占中国大豆、油菜籽和花生产量异常的 51%、52% 和 33%。热带印度洋变率对大豆和花生产量变化的影响最大,而对油菜籽产量异常影响最大的是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动。最后,本研究利用当地气象变量的变化,研究了 SST 模式变化影响油籽作物产量的具体方式。我们的研究结果揭示了热带 SST 变率与油籽作物产量之间的关系,为我们详细了解 SST 模式与油籽作物产量之间的各种联系提供了依据。这项研究加深了我们对气候多变性对农业影响的认识,为制定战略以减轻气候多变性对中国油料作物生产的不利影响提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? 如何在不同气候轨迹下实现农业集水区养分流失减少 50%?
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004299
Maarten Wynants, Johan Strömqvist, Lukas Hallberg, John Livsey, Göran Lindström, Magdalena Bieroza

Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best-management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation-driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature-driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best-management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets.

在欧洲水体持续富营养化和气候不断变化的情况下,越来越需要对减少农业集水区营养流失的最佳管理方法进行评估。在这项研究中,我们在《环境水文预测》中为欧洲湿润大陆地区两个具有代表性的农业集水区建立了日排放和水质模型,以预测未来气候轨迹对营养物质负荷的影响。该模型预测,在 RCP2.6 条件下,无机氮(IN)和总磷(TP)负荷会略有增加,这可能是由于降水驱动的迁移所致。在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 条件下,预计无机氮负荷将分别减少 16% 至 26% 和 21% 至 50%,这很可能是由于温度导致作物吸收和蒸散量增加。在 TP 负荷方面没有观察到明显的趋势。根据欧洲 "绿色协议 "的目标,采用多种管理方案,包括(a)减少 20% 的矿物肥料施用量,(b)引入覆盖作物(CC),以及(c)通过引入泛滥平原减缓溪流(SM),对养分负荷减少 50%的目标进行了反向预测。目标 TP 负荷削减量只能通过 SM 来实现,这可能是由于在高排放事件期间农业溪流内的二次动员造成的。目标 IN 负荷削减量是通过 SM、减少化肥用量和 CC 的组合来实现的,其中所需的措施在很大程度上取决于气候轨迹。总之,这项研究成功地展示了一种在不同气候变化轨迹下评估最佳管理方法的建模方法,该方法是根据集水区的特点和具体的养分减排目标量身定制的。
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引用次数: 0
STAR-ESDM: A Generalizable Approach to Generating High-Resolution Climate Projections Through Signal Decomposition STAR-ESDM:通过信号分解生成高分辨率气候预测的通用方法
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004107
Katharine Hayhoe, Ian Scott-Fleming, Anne Stoner, Donald J. Wuebbles

High-resolution climate projections are critical to assessing climate risk and developing climate resilience strategies. However, they remain limited in quality, availability, and/or geographic coverage. The Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals empirical statistical downscaling model (STAR-ESDM) is a computationally-efficient, flexible approach to generating such projections that can be applied globally using predictands and predictors sourced from weather stations, gridded data sets, satellites, reanalysis, and global or regional climate models. It uses signal processing combined with Fourier filtering and kernel density estimation techniques to decompose and smooth any quasi-Gaussian time series, gridded or point-based, into multi-decadal long-term means and/or trends; static and dynamic annual cycles; and probability distributions of daily variability. Long-term predictor trends are bias-corrected and predictor components used to map predictand components to future conditions. Components are then recombined for each station or grid cell to produce a continuous, high-resolution bias-corrected and downscaled time series at the spatial and temporal scale of the predictand time series. Comparing STAR-ESDM output driven by coarse global climate model simulations with daily temperature and precipitation projections generated by a high-resolution version of the same global model demonstrates it is capable of accurately reproducing projected changes for all but the most extreme temperature and precipitation values. For most continental areas, biases in 1-in-1000 hottest and coldest temperatures are <0.5°C and biases in the 1-in-1000 wet day precipitation amounts are <5 mm/day. As climate impacts intensify, STAR-ESDM represents a significant advance in generating consistent high-resolution projections to comprehensively assess climate risk and optimize resilience globally.

高分辨率气候预测对于评估气候风险和制定气候适应战略至关重要。然而,这些预测的质量、可用性和/或地理覆盖范围仍然有限。季节趋势和残差分析实证统计降尺度模型(STAR-ESDM)是一种计算效率高、灵活的方法,可利用气象站、网格数据集、卫星、再分析和全球或区域气候模型中的预测因子和预测结果,在全球范围内生成此类预测。它采用信号处理技术,结合傅立叶滤波和核密度估计技术,将任何准高斯时间序列(网格数据或点数据)分解和平滑成十年以上的长期平均值和/或趋势、静态和动态年度周期以及日变化概率分布。长期预测趋势经过偏差校正,预测成分用于将预测和成分映射到未来条件。然后,对每个站点或网格单元的成分进行重新组合,生成连续、高分辨率的偏差校正和降尺度时间序列,其空间和时间尺度与预测因子时间序列一致。将 STAR-ESDM 的输出结果与粗略的全球气候模式模拟结果和同一全球模式的高分辨率版本生成的日气温和降水预测结果进行比较,结果表明,除了最极端的气温和降水值外,STAR-ESDM 能够准确地再现所有预测变化。对于大多数大陆地区来说,千分之一最热和最冷温度的偏差小于 0.5°C,千分之一湿润日降水量的偏差小于 5 毫米/日。随着气候影响的加剧,STAR-ESDM 在生成一致的高分辨率预测以全面评估气候风险和优化全球抗灾能力方面取得了重大进展。
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引用次数: 0
Emerging Risk to Dengue in Asian Metropolitan Areas Under Global Warming 全球变暖下亚洲大都市地区新出现的登革热风险
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1029/2024EF004548
Cheng Jing, Guojie Wang, Kristie L. Ebi, Buda Su, Xiaoming Wang, Dong Chen, Tong Jiang, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Aedes sp. mosquitoes are changing their geographic range in response to climate change. This is of concern because these mosquitoes can carry dengue fever and other viral diseases. Changing weather patterns can also increase the numbers of Aedes mosquitoes, leading to greater human exposure and enhancing population health risks. We project the geographic distribution of Aedes and associated changes in populations exposed to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas under warming scenarios from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above pre-industrial temperatures, using multi-model ensembles. With global warming, the southern part of the Arabian Peninsula, the coast of the Arabian Sea in southern Iran, southern Pakistan in West Asia, the Korean Peninsula, most of the Japanese islands, and parts of North China in East Asia are projected to become suitable for dengue transmission. The numbers of metropolitan areas exposed to dengue is projected to change from 142 (48%) in the reference period (1995–2014) to 211 (71%) at 5.0°C warming. With the combined impact of socioeconomic and climate change, population exposure to dengue in Asian metropolitan areas is projected to increase from 263 (multi-model range 252–268) million in 1995–2014 to 411 (394–432) million, 446 (420–490) million, 509 (475–601), 558 (493–685) and 587 (529–773) million, respectively, at 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C and 5°C warming, with an average of 2.9 million new people exposed to dengue fever in metropolitan areas each year.

伊蚊正在随着气候变化改变其地理分布范围。这令人担忧,因为这些蚊子可能携带登革热和其他病毒性疾病。不断变化的天气模式也会增加伊蚊的数量,从而导致人类接触伊蚊的机会增多,增加人口健康风险。我们利用多模型组合,预测了在比工业化前温度高 1.5°C 至 5.0°C 的气候变暖情景下,伊蚊的地理分布以及亚洲大都市地区接触登革热的人群的相关变化。随着全球变暖,预计阿拉伯半岛南部、伊朗南部的阿拉伯海沿岸、西亚的巴基斯坦南部、朝鲜半岛、日本列岛的大部分地区以及东亚的华北部分地区将适合登革热传播。预计暴露于登革热的大都市地区的数量将从参照期(1995-2014 年)的 142 个(48%)变为升温 5.0°C 时的 211 个(71%)。在社会经济和气候变化的综合影响下,预计亚洲大都市地区登革热感染人口将从 1995-2014 年的 2.63 亿(多模型范围 2.52-2.68 亿)分别增加到 1.0℃、2.0℃、3.0℃、4.1(3.94-4.32)亿、4.46(4.20-4.90)亿、5.09(4.75-6.01)亿、5.58(4.93-6.85)亿和 5.87(5.29-7.73)亿。5摄氏度、2.0摄氏度、3.0摄氏度、4.0摄氏度和5摄氏度的情况下,大都市地区平均每年新增290万人感染登革热。
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引用次数: 0
Does Urbanization Exacerbate Asymmetrical Changes in Precipitation at Divergent Time Scales in China? 城市化是否加剧了中国降水在不同时间尺度上的非对称变化?
IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1029/2023EF004355
Fanggang Li, Xin Pan, Nan Xu, Xiangjin Meng, Zhiqing Li, Rufat Guluzade, Yang Dai, Yingbao Yang

Urbanization alters the thermal and dynamic environment of the local climate system, resulting in significant impacts on precipitation in both urban and adjacent areas. Nevertheless, there remains a significant gap in our understanding of urbanization-induced effects on asymmetrical, symmetrical, and other precipitation patterns in urban agglomerations (UAs) with divergent background climates and geographic regions at different timescales. Specifically, this asymmetrical change pattern is characterized by an increase in heavy (or light) rainfall and a decrease in light (or heavy) rainfall. Here, we assessed the effects of urbanization on precipitation patterns across 18 UAs situated in diverse background climates and geographical areas in China at different timescales. The results demonstrate that urbanization predominantly alters precipitation patterns in UAs located in the humid region. Specifically, urbanization amplified asymmetrical changes in Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beibu Gulf, Middle Yangtze River, and Guanzhong, but exacerbated symmetrical changes in precipitation in some regions such as Chengdu-Chongqing. Notably, the urbanization effect demonstrates greater significance at the hourly scale, as exemplified in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Middle Yangtze River, where the urban impact is nearly twice as pronounced when compared to the daily scale. Moreover, urbanization had either no effect or has a negative impact on precipitation patterns in UAs located within continental and arid regions. This is related to the intensity of urbanization, background climate and complex topography. This finding implies that urban managers should consider the impact of urbanization on precipitation patterns in different contexts to provide scientific guidance for urban planning.

城市化改变了当地气候系统的热环境和动态环境,从而对城市和邻近地区的降水产生了重大影响。尽管如此,我们对城市化对背景气候和地理区域不同的城市群(UAs)在不同时间尺度上的非对称、对称和其他降水模式的影响的理解仍有很大差距。具体来说,这种非对称变化模式的特点是大雨(或小雨)增多,小雨(或大雨)减少。在此,我们评估了位于中国不同背景气候和地理区域的 18 个统一观测区在不同时间尺度下城市化对降水模式的影响。结果表明,城市化主要改变了位于湿润地区的城市观测区的降水模式。具体而言,城市化扩大了长江三角洲、珠江三角洲、北部湾、长江中游和关中地区降水的非对称变化,但加剧了成渝等地区降水的对称变化。值得注意的是,城市化的影响在小时尺度上更为显著,例如在长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和长江中游地区,城市化的影响比日尺度显著近一倍。此外,城市化对位于大陆和干旱地区的区域观测区的降水模式要么没有影响,要么有负面影响。这与城市化的强度、背景气候和复杂的地形有关。这一发现意味着城市管理者应考虑城市化在不同背景下对降水模式的影响,为城市规划提供科学指导。
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Earths Future
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