Lancet Global Health最新文献

Background: Mpox was first identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 1970. In 2023, a historic outbreak of mpox occurred in the country, continuing into 2024. Over 14 000 cases and 600 deaths were reported in 2023 alone, representing a major increase from previous outbreaks. The modified vaccinia Ankara vaccine (brand names JYNNEOS, Imvamune, and Imvanex) was used in the 2022 mpox outbreak in the USA and Europe. However, at the time of the study, vaccination had not been made available in the DRC. We aimed to inform policy and decision makers on the potential benefits of, and resources needed, for mpox vaccination campaigns in the DRC by providing counterfactual scenarios evaluating the short-term effects of various vaccination strategies on mpox cases and deaths, if such a vaccination campaign had been undertaken before the 2023-24 outbreak.

Methods: A dynamic transmission model was used to simulate mpox transmission in the DRC, stratified by age (<5, 5-15, and >15 years) and province. The model was used to simulate potential vaccination strategies, varying by age and region (endemic provinces, non-endemic provinces with historic cases, and all provinces) assessing the effect the strategies would have on deaths and cases in an epidemic year similar to 2023. In addition, we estimated the number of vaccine doses needed to implement each strategy.

Findings: Without vaccination, our model predicted 14 700 cases and 700 deaths from mpox over 365 days. Vaccinating 80% of all children younger than 5 years in endemic regions led to a 27% overall reduction in cases and a 43% reduction in deaths, requiring 10·5 million vaccine doses. Vaccinating 80% of all children younger than 5 years in all regions led to a 29% reduction in cases and a 43% reduction in deaths, requiring 33·1 million doses. Vaccinating 80% of children aged 15 years or younger in endemic provinces led to a 54% reduction in cases and a 71% reduction in deaths, requiring 26·6 million doses.

Interpretation: When resources are limited, vaccinating children aged 15 years or younger, or younger than 5 years, in endemic regions of the DRC would be the most efficient use of vaccines. Further research is needed to explore long-term effects of a one-time or recurrent vaccination campaign.

Funding: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canadian International Development Research Centre, US Department of Defense (Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Mpox Threat Reduction Network), Global Affairs Canada (Weapons Threat Reduction Program), US Department for Agriculture (Agriculture Research Service, Non-Assistance Cooperative Agreement).

Background: Surgical-site infection (SSI) is one of the most common health-care-associated infections, substantially contributing to antibiotic use. Targeted antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent SSIs and effective treatment are crucial to controlling antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aimed to describe the testing capacity and multidrug resistance (MDR) of SSI microorganisms in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods: This analysis included patients undergoing abdominal surgery in seven LMICs (Benin, Ghana, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa) as part of the FALCON randomised controlled trial. Wound swabs were collected from patients diagnosed with SSI, as per US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definition. Data on microorganism species and MDR, as per CDC and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control definitions, were analysed alongside hospital-level data on local microbiological practices. An adjusted analysis was performed to identify perioperative factors associated with MDR. Testing capacity was assessed by the completion of swab testing in positively diagnosed SSIs.

Findings: Between Dec 10, 2018, and Sept 7, 2020, 5788 patients were recruited to the FALCON trial. 1163 patients were diagnosed with an SSI, of whom 905 (77·8%) received prophylactic antibiotics before surgery. In patients with SSIs, 935 of 1163 (80·4%) did not have a wound swab; 195 were from hospitals not performing swabs (15 hospitals) and 740 were from hospitals with capacity but no swab performed (35 hospitals). Of 228 patients swabbed, 200 (88·5%) had microorganisms detected. Escherichia coli (89 of 200, 37·9%) was the most common microorganism and 116 of 200 (58·0%) patients were not covered by the perioperative prophylactic antibiotic. MDR was found in 102 of 147 (69·4%) patients for whom data were available to determine MDR status. Adjusted analysis found that appropriate prophylactic antibiotic coverage (adjusted odds ratio 0·43, 95% CI 0·19-0·96) and regular availability of infection control teams (0·32, 0·11-0·93) were associated with a significant reduction in MDR.

Interpretation: Targeted perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis during contaminated abdominal surgery is insufficient in LMICs, with very few SSI organisms undergoing formal diagnosis. Expansion of testing capacity, development of local guidelines, and implementation of infection control teams could support the prevention of SSI through directed antibiotic prophylaxis, subsequently reducing the burden of MDR.

Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Translations: For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.