Kristen C. Harmon, Melissa R. Price, Kawika B. Winter
Studies of biodiversity loss commonly imply that species extinctions occurred as a direct result of initial human arrival and thus are attributable to stewardship failures of Indigenous Peoples. However, recent studies have suggested this assumption is not supported by the evidence, prompting a global reevaluation of existing assumptions. To assess the relationship between human arrival in the Hawaiian Islands and documented declines in waterbird biodiversity, we reviewed empirical evidence from paleoecological studies. We first identified the time period that extinct Hawaiian waterbird species were last observed within the fossil record. We then evaluated four hypotheses proposed to explain drivers of Holocene waterbird extinctions: (1) the overkill hypothesis; (2) the deforestation hypothesis; (3) the climate change hypothesis; and (4) the species introductions hypothesis. Of the 18 extinct waterbird species evaluated in this study, 10 were last observed in the fossil record prior to Polynesian arrival, 6 were last observed in the fossil record during the Polynesian era, and 2 were last visually observed after European arrival. Extinctions that possibly occurred during the Polynesian era were likely caused by a suite of factors, some anthropogenic and some non-anthropogenic. Our findings contradict previous studies that attributed Holocene waterbird extinctions to hunting and deforestation by Native Hawaiians and suggest a future line of inquiry regarding a proposed “regime shift extinctions” in hypothesis to explain complex impacts of human-mediated and climatic drivers of extinction in the Anthropocene.
{"title":"The “regime shift extinctions” hypothesis and mass extinction of waterbirds in Hawaiʻi","authors":"Kristen C. Harmon, Melissa R. Price, Kawika B. Winter","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70445","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70445","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Studies of biodiversity loss commonly imply that species extinctions occurred as a direct result of initial human arrival and thus are attributable to stewardship failures of Indigenous Peoples. However, recent studies have suggested this assumption is not supported by the evidence, prompting a global reevaluation of existing assumptions. To assess the relationship between human arrival in the Hawaiian Islands and documented declines in waterbird biodiversity, we reviewed empirical evidence from paleoecological studies. We first identified the time period that extinct Hawaiian waterbird species were last observed within the fossil record. We then evaluated four hypotheses proposed to explain drivers of Holocene waterbird extinctions: (1) the overkill hypothesis; (2) the deforestation hypothesis; (3) the climate change hypothesis; and (4) the species introductions hypothesis. Of the 18 extinct waterbird species evaluated in this study, 10 were last observed in the fossil record prior to Polynesian arrival, 6 were last observed in the fossil record during the Polynesian era, and 2 were last visually observed after European arrival. Extinctions that possibly occurred during the Polynesian era were likely caused by a suite of factors, some anthropogenic and some non-anthropogenic. Our findings contradict previous studies that attributed Holocene waterbird extinctions to hunting and deforestation by Native Hawaiians and suggest a future line of inquiry regarding a proposed “regime shift extinctions” in hypothesis to explain complex impacts of human-mediated and climatic drivers of extinction in the Anthropocene.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70445","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146002224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Brenden Pienaar, Ed T. F. Witkowski, Dave I. Thompson, Justice Muvengwi
The miombo woodlands, which span about 10% of the African continent, are essential for the ecosystem services they provide. These woodlands are mainly dominated by the genera Julbernardia, Isoberlinia, and Brachystegia. However, there is limited understanding of how species dominance and richness change in relict sites, which are far removed from the core miombo woodlands. In this study, we anticipated that relict sites would show reduced species diversity due to their isolation from the core miombo woodlands and their exposure to different species compositions. We sampled vegetation using modified Whittaker plots (50 m × 20 m) across four sites: core miombo woodland (n = 14), miombo edge (n = 19), Mozambique relict (n = 18), and South Africa relict (n = 21). Within each plot, we measured tree height, basal diameter, and canopy dimensions for mature trees; root collar diameter for saplings (20 m × 5 m subplots); and recorded seedling species and counts (in 5 m × 2 m subplots). Temperature and rainfall gradients were also assessed across the sites. Species richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity, and species evenness were compared between sites using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Species composition differences between sites were evaluated using analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Our results revealed a pattern where species richness, the Shannon–Wiener index, and evenness increased with decreasing relict size. Interestingly, evenness declined from juvenile to adult stages within sites, suggesting changes in species composition over time. Significant differences in species composition were observed between sites, with the most pronounced dissimilarities between the core miombo woodland and Mozambique relict. Our findings highlight that while key miombo species remained dominant and important, the relict sites demonstrated increased species richness. This suggests that these isolated sites might harbor high biodiversity, potentially due to their high perimeter-to-area ratio, which makes them more susceptible to species invasions. Additionally, the warmer temperatures recorded at the relict sites could be driving thermophilization, further contributing to the richness and diversity observed. These insights are crucial for informing conservation strategies for miombo woodlands and their relicts in the face of ongoing climate change.
非洲森林约占非洲大陆面积的10%,对其提供的生态系统服务至关重要。这些林地主要以Julbernardia属、Isoberlinia属和Brachystegia属为主。然而,人们对远离核心林地的遗存遗址中物种优势度和丰富度的变化了解有限。在本研究中,我们预计遗存遗址由于与核心林地的隔离以及暴露于不同的物种组成而导致物种多样性降低。我们使用改良的Whittaker样地(50 m × 20 m)在四个地点进行植被采样:miombo核心林地(n = 14)、miombo边缘(n = 19)、莫桑比克遗迹(n = 18)和南非遗迹(n = 21)。在每个样地内,我们测量了成熟树木的树高、基径和冠层尺寸;幼树根颈直径(20 m × 5 m小样地);记录幼苗种类和数量(5 m × 2 m小样)。还评估了各个站点的温度和降雨梯度。物种丰富度、Shannon-Wiener多样性和物种均匀度采用单因素方差分析(ANOVA)进行比较。采用相似度分析(ANOSIM)评价不同地点间物种组成差异。结果表明,物种丰富度、Shannon-Wiener指数和均匀度均随遗迹规模的减小而增大。有趣的是,从幼年期到成年期,均匀度有所下降,这表明物种组成随着时间的推移而变化。不同地点的物种组成存在显著差异,其中miombo核心林地与莫桑比克遗址的差异最为明显。我们的研究结果强调,虽然关键的灵长类物种仍然占主导地位和重要地位,但遗存遗址的物种丰富度却有所增加。这表明这些孤立的地点可能拥有高生物多样性,可能是由于它们的高周长面积比,这使得它们更容易受到物种入侵。此外,在遗迹遗址记录到的温度升高可能推动了热干化,进一步促进了观察到的丰富性和多样性。这些见解对于在面临持续气候变化的情况下,为miombo林地及其遗迹的保护策略提供信息至关重要。
{"title":"Species richness, composition, and dominance of core and climate relicts of African miombo woodlands","authors":"Brenden Pienaar, Ed T. F. Witkowski, Dave I. Thompson, Justice Muvengwi","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70498","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The miombo woodlands, which span about 10% of the African continent, are essential for the ecosystem services they provide. These woodlands are mainly dominated by the genera <i>Julbernardia</i>, <i>Isoberlinia</i>, and <i>Brachystegia</i>. However, there is limited understanding of how species dominance and richness change in relict sites, which are far removed from the core miombo woodlands. In this study, we anticipated that relict sites would show reduced species diversity due to their isolation from the core miombo woodlands and their exposure to different species compositions. We sampled vegetation using modified Whittaker plots (50 m × 20 m) across four sites: core miombo woodland (<i>n</i> = 14), miombo edge (<i>n</i> = 19), Mozambique relict (<i>n</i> = 18), and South Africa relict (<i>n</i> = 21). Within each plot, we measured tree height, basal diameter, and canopy dimensions for mature trees; root collar diameter for saplings (20 m × 5 m subplots); and recorded seedling species and counts (in 5 m × 2 m subplots). Temperature and rainfall gradients were also assessed across the sites. Species richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity, and species evenness were compared between sites using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Species composition differences between sites were evaluated using analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Our results revealed a pattern where species richness, the Shannon–Wiener index, and evenness increased with decreasing relict size. Interestingly, evenness declined from juvenile to adult stages within sites, suggesting changes in species composition over time. Significant differences in species composition were observed between sites, with the most pronounced dissimilarities between the core miombo woodland and Mozambique relict. Our findings highlight that while key miombo species remained dominant and important, the relict sites demonstrated increased species richness. This suggests that these isolated sites might harbor high biodiversity, potentially due to their high perimeter-to-area ratio, which makes them more susceptible to species invasions. Additionally, the warmer temperatures recorded at the relict sites could be driving thermophilization, further contributing to the richness and diversity observed. These insights are crucial for informing conservation strategies for miombo woodlands and their relicts in the face of ongoing climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70498","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The increasing societal demands on the seabed due to the expansion of offshore wind energy highlight an urgent need to better understand the relationship between human activities and the structure and function of seabed ecosystems. In this paper, we propose an empirically derived approach to quantify relative ecological risk to benthic invertebrate assemblages from future offshore wind development. Using benthic data from over 22,000 seabed grab samples across the UK shelf and wider North Sea contained in OneBenthic, a freely available online data repository, we produce modeled raster layers for three biological criteria upon which we define ecological risk. These are (1) relative benthic sensitivity based on response traits expression, (2) benthic biodiversity, and (3) assemblage rarity. We create a holistic map based on these three layers and discuss how this information may be used, using a new online tool, to assist decisions regarding future offshore development to minimize potential impacts on benthic assemblages. Given the broad spatial coverage of our maps, our tool could help expedite the expansion of offshore wind in a large area of the northeast Atlantic, whilst the underlying methodology can be applied to other regions with extensive benthic survey data, thereby facilitating international commitments to reduce carbon emissions. We propose how the maps may be improved and discuss the future incorporation of extra criteria into the framework.
{"title":"Developing an ecological risk-based approach to facilitate licensing offshore wind development","authors":"S. G. Bolam, K. M. Cooper, A. -L. Downie","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70520","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing societal demands on the seabed due to the expansion of offshore wind energy highlight an urgent need to better understand the relationship between human activities and the structure and function of seabed ecosystems. In this paper, we propose an empirically derived approach to quantify relative ecological risk to benthic invertebrate assemblages from future offshore wind development. Using benthic data from over 22,000 seabed grab samples across the UK shelf and wider North Sea contained in OneBenthic, a freely available online data repository, we produce modeled raster layers for three biological criteria upon which we define ecological risk. These are (1) relative benthic sensitivity based on response traits expression, (2) benthic biodiversity, and (3) assemblage rarity. We create a holistic map based on these three layers and discuss how this information may be used, using a new online tool, to assist decisions regarding future offshore development to minimize potential impacts on benthic assemblages. Given the broad spatial coverage of our maps, our tool could help expedite the expansion of offshore wind in a large area of the northeast Atlantic, whilst the underlying methodology can be applied to other regions with extensive benthic survey data, thereby facilitating international commitments to reduce carbon emissions. We propose how the maps may be improved and discuss the future incorporation of extra criteria into the framework.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70520","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145969611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The operational sex ratio (OSR), that is, the local ratio of fertilizable females to sexually active males at any given time, is of key importance for the strength of sexual selection and the reproduction of populations. We hypothesize that sex-specific cohort splitting, that is, when one sex mostly metamorphoses while the other mostly enters diapause, may lead to OSR bias in nature. The OSR of an aquatic moth, Acentria ephemerella, has been shown to be strongly male-biased in situ. Here, we use a mesocosm experiment in which we determine the sexes of active, diapausing, and metamorphosing larvae to test whether the male bias in Acentria is due to sex-specific mortality or sex-specific cohort splitting. Fish predation did not result in a strong male bias of the whole population but increased male bias in pupae and female bias in diapausing larvae. The opposite effect of fish on pupal versus diapausing larval sex ratios suggests that fish-induced sex-specific cohort splitting, rather than sex-specific mortality, caused the OSR bias of Acentria observed in situ. Future research needs to study whether the OSR bias is an adaptive response to the presumably higher fish predation pressure on females or a maladaptive byproduct of sex-specific activity and growth responses to fish presence. Overall, shifts in OSR due to sex-specific cohort splitting could be a more common component of arthropod life histories than previously thought.
{"title":"Operational sex ratio bias due to sex-specific cohort splitting in response to predation","authors":"Oliver Miler, František Marec, Dietmar Straile","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70518","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70518","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The operational sex ratio (OSR), that is, the local ratio of fertilizable females to sexually active males at any given time, is of key importance for the strength of sexual selection and the reproduction of populations. We hypothesize that sex-specific cohort splitting, that is, when one sex mostly metamorphoses while the other mostly enters diapause, may lead to OSR bias in nature. The OSR of an aquatic moth, <i>Acentria ephemerella</i>, has been shown to be strongly male-biased in situ. Here, we use a mesocosm experiment in which we determine the sexes of active, diapausing, and metamorphosing larvae to test whether the male bias in <i>Acentria</i> is due to sex-specific mortality or sex-specific cohort splitting. Fish predation did not result in a strong male bias of the whole population but increased male bias in pupae and female bias in diapausing larvae. The opposite effect of fish on pupal versus diapausing larval sex ratios suggests that fish-induced sex-specific cohort splitting, rather than sex-specific mortality, caused the OSR bias of <i>Acentria</i> observed in situ. Future research needs to study whether the OSR bias is an adaptive response to the presumably higher fish predation pressure on females or a maladaptive byproduct of sex-specific activity and growth responses to fish presence. Overall, shifts in OSR due to sex-specific cohort splitting could be a more common component of arthropod life histories than previously thought.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70518","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145958149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. L. Southall, R. S. Schick, W. R. Cioffi, S. L. DeRuiter, H. J. Foley, C. M. Harris, A. E. Harshbarger, J. E. Joseph, T. Margolina, D. P. Nowacek, N. J. Quick, Z. T. Swaim, L. Thomas, D. M. Waples, D. L. Webster, J. H. Wisse, A. J. Read
We report direct measurements of changes in diving and movement behavior for 53 goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) in relation to experimentally controlled mid-frequency (3–4 kHz) active sonar (MFAS) signals. These signals simulate powerful Navy sources that have been associated with multiple mortal stranding events for this species. We deployed a multi-scale combination of tags to monitor individual whales, including 50 long-duration (weeks), coarse-resolution satellite-transmitting tags and 3 short-duration (hours), high-resolution archival depth, orientation, and acoustic tags. We evaluated behavioral responses during 13 experimental trials (9 MFAS; 4 no-MFAS controls), resulting in 72 exposure events; some individuals were exposed in multiple trials. Whales were exposed at known and modeled horizontal ranges from ~2 to >200 km and from below ambient noise levels to received levels (RLs) up to ~142 dB re: 1μPa (root-mean-square [RMS]). We investigated changes in diving and movement behavior separately, with a suite of metrics, descriptive evaluations, and statistical tests. We observed similar patterns and probabilities of behavioral changes for control trials and the lowest RL conditions (<100 dB). Above 100 dB RLs, increasingly prevalent and consistent responses occurred, including extended deep dives, prolonged periods between deep dives, directed spatial movement away from the source, and cessation of echolocation. Aspects of these cryptic responses typically persisted for hours following exposure but did not result in broad-scale habitat abandonment. Our study builds upon experimental and observational studies conducted on sonar testing ranges and expands our understanding of the response of this species to MFAS in a region where operational sonar use occurs far less commonly than on Navy testing ranges. These data are directly applicable in the conservation and effective management of this sensitive, protected species.
我们报告了53只鹅喙鲸(Ziphius cavirostris)在实验控制的中频(3-4 kHz)主动声呐(MFAS)信号下潜水和运动行为变化的直接测量结果。这些信号模拟了强大的海军来源,这些来源与该物种的多个致命搁浅事件有关。我们部署了多尺度标签组合来监测单个鲸鱼,包括50个长时间(周),粗分辨率卫星传输标签和3个短时间(小时),高分辨率档案深度,方向和声学标签。我们评估了13个实验试验中的行为反应(9个MFAS对照组,4个无MFAS对照组),共产生72个暴露事件;有些人在多次试验中暴露。鲸鱼暴露在已知和模拟的水平范围内,从~2到>;200公里,从低于环境噪声水平到接收噪声水平(RLs)高达~142 dB re: 1μPa(均方根[RMS])。我们分别研究了潜水和运动行为的变化,采用了一套指标、描述性评估和统计测试。我们在对照试验和最低RL条件(<100 dB)中观察到类似的行为改变模式和概率。在100 dB RLs以上,会出现越来越普遍和一致的响应,包括深度潜水时间延长、深度潜水间隔延长、定向空间运动远离源以及回声定位停止。这些隐蔽性反应的各个方面通常在暴露后持续数小时,但不会导致大面积的栖息地放弃。我们的研究建立在对声纳测试范围进行的实验和观察研究的基础上,并扩展了我们对该物种对MFAS反应的理解,该地区的操作声纳使用频率远低于海军测试范围。这些数据直接适用于保护和有效管理这一敏感的受保护物种。
{"title":"Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar","authors":"B. L. Southall, R. S. Schick, W. R. Cioffi, S. L. DeRuiter, H. J. Foley, C. M. Harris, A. E. Harshbarger, J. E. Joseph, T. Margolina, D. P. Nowacek, N. J. Quick, Z. T. Swaim, L. Thomas, D. M. Waples, D. L. Webster, J. H. Wisse, A. J. Read","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70501","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We report direct measurements of changes in diving and movement behavior for 53 goose-beaked whales (<i>Ziphius cavirostris</i>) in relation to experimentally controlled mid-frequency (3–4 kHz) active sonar (MFAS) signals. These signals simulate powerful Navy sources that have been associated with multiple mortal stranding events for this species. We deployed a multi-scale combination of tags to monitor individual whales, including 50 long-duration (weeks), coarse-resolution satellite-transmitting tags and 3 short-duration (hours), high-resolution archival depth, orientation, and acoustic tags. We evaluated behavioral responses during 13 experimental trials (9 MFAS; 4 no-MFAS controls), resulting in 72 exposure events; some individuals were exposed in multiple trials. Whales were exposed at known and modeled horizontal ranges from ~2 to >200 km and from below ambient noise levels to received levels (RLs) up to ~142 dB re: 1μPa (root-mean-square [RMS]). We investigated changes in diving and movement behavior separately, with a suite of metrics, descriptive evaluations, and statistical tests. We observed similar patterns and probabilities of behavioral changes for control trials and the lowest RL conditions (<100 dB). Above 100 dB RLs, increasingly prevalent and consistent responses occurred, including extended deep dives, prolonged periods between deep dives, directed spatial movement away from the source, and cessation of echolocation. Aspects of these cryptic responses typically persisted for hours following exposure but did not result in broad-scale habitat abandonment. Our study builds upon experimental and observational studies conducted on sonar testing ranges and expands our understanding of the response of this species to MFAS in a region where operational sonar use occurs far less commonly than on Navy testing ranges. These data are directly applicable in the conservation and effective management of this sensitive, protected species.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70501","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145983524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Rebecca Shaftel, Megan L. Feddern, Stephanie A. McAfee, Erik R. Schoen, Curry Cunningham, Vanessa R. von Biela, Josh Paul, Yifan Cheng, Andrew Newman, Margaret Perdue, Jon Schwenk, Al von Finster, Jeff Falke
Climatic extremes can impact the productivity of aquatic species, affecting ecosystems and fishery-dependent communities. Advances in climate products, such as gridded datasets and downscaled projections, may be useful for quantifying freshwater habitat conditions and predicting climate change effects on fish. However, limited guidance exists for selecting climate products to develop indicators of freshwater habitat conditions that influence fish population dynamics. Here, we develop an approach for identifying streamflow and stream temperature models to address this need. We evaluated skill in predicted versus observed streamflow and stream temperature, with predictions depending on different models and gridded climate data as inputs. The best performing models were used in a case study exploring habitat conditions influencing Chinook salmon in the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins, two remote high-latitude watersheds with few in situ habitat observations and recent salmon declines. Three modeled streamflow datasets had variable performance (median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies from 0.39 to 0.70). Three gridded temperature products differed in their ability to explain variation in weekly stream temperatures (median r2 from 0.42 to 0.76). We selected a single gridded air temperature dataset to compare two novel predictive stream temperature models, both of which had good accuracy (root mean squared error [RMSE] of 1.19 and 0.95°C). Stream temperature indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum temperatures during adult migration and cumulative temperatures during juvenile rearing, had high spatial correlation across tributaries within the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins and showed significant warming over the past 40 years. Streamflow indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum flow during spawning and median flow during rearing, had few trends and were largely uncorrelated within the Yukon River basin and moderately correlated within the Kuskokwim River basin. Overall, we found that generic measures of model performance varied considerably, and it was important to consider the models best suited to our case study. For both streamflow and stream temperature, multiple high-performing models allowed estimation of ecologically relevant conditions affecting Chinook salmon. The approach we used to estimate local-scale habitat conditions has value to identify synchronous conditions that may influence multiple salmon populations under a changing subarctic climate.
{"title":"Integrating climate data and river modeling to reveal Chinook salmon habitat conditions in subarctic river basins","authors":"Rebecca Shaftel, Megan L. Feddern, Stephanie A. McAfee, Erik R. Schoen, Curry Cunningham, Vanessa R. von Biela, Josh Paul, Yifan Cheng, Andrew Newman, Margaret Perdue, Jon Schwenk, Al von Finster, Jeff Falke","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70399","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70399","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climatic extremes can impact the productivity of aquatic species, affecting ecosystems and fishery-dependent communities. Advances in climate products, such as gridded datasets and downscaled projections, may be useful for quantifying freshwater habitat conditions and predicting climate change effects on fish. However, limited guidance exists for selecting climate products to develop indicators of freshwater habitat conditions that influence fish population dynamics. Here, we develop an approach for identifying streamflow and stream temperature models to address this need. We evaluated skill in predicted versus observed streamflow and stream temperature, with predictions depending on different models and gridded climate data as inputs. The best performing models were used in a case study exploring habitat conditions influencing Chinook salmon in the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins, two remote high-latitude watersheds with few in situ habitat observations and recent salmon declines. Three modeled streamflow datasets had variable performance (median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies from 0.39 to 0.70). Three gridded temperature products differed in their ability to explain variation in weekly stream temperatures (median <i>r</i><sup>2</sup> from 0.42 to 0.76). We selected a single gridded air temperature dataset to compare two novel predictive stream temperature models, both of which had good accuracy (root mean squared error [RMSE] of 1.19 and 0.95°C). Stream temperature indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum temperatures during adult migration and cumulative temperatures during juvenile rearing, had high spatial correlation across tributaries within the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins and showed significant warming over the past 40 years. Streamflow indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum flow during spawning and median flow during rearing, had few trends and were largely uncorrelated within the Yukon River basin and moderately correlated within the Kuskokwim River basin. Overall, we found that generic measures of model performance varied considerably, and it was important to consider the models best suited to our case study. For both streamflow and stream temperature, multiple high-performing models allowed estimation of ecologically relevant conditions affecting Chinook salmon. The approach we used to estimate local-scale habitat conditions has value to identify synchronous conditions that may influence multiple salmon populations under a changing subarctic climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70399","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145983491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Molly A. Fisher, Walter K. Dodds, Héloïse Rouzé, Sarah Lemer
Scleractinian coral evolved under nitrogen (N)-limited conditions. The increase in N flux from anthropogenic activities to these otherwise N-depleted environments is threatening coral health and coral reef ecosystem function. We tested the effect of elevated ammonium (NH4+) loading on Acropora metabolism responses (respiration, gross primary production, and NH4+ uptake) on healthy aquacultured Acropora sp. and compared responses to wild Acropora pulchra from Guam where corals are threatened by eutrophication. We quantified 15N isotope uptake, metabolism in custom metabolism chambers, and tissue N and carbon (C) content following NH4+ loading. For aquacultured Acropora sp., we found that NH4+ loading stimulated primary production and respiration, but did not significantly alter rates of uptake or tissue C or N content. Conversely, the wild A. pulchra did not respond to NH4+ loading and was generally resistant to short-term exposures of NH4+ loading. The change in rates of primary production within the aquacultured coral experiment suggests that sustained increases in N availability could upset stoichiometric regulation in coral. Few studies have coupled N cycling and metabolism rates, so our results serve as an important resource for understanding the biological activity of scleractinian coral, particularly a common wild coral from Guam, where extended events of increased anthropogenic N are increasing disease prevalence and decreasing coral reef diversity.
{"title":"Stoichiometric regulation of nitrogen and carbon fluxes in Acropora coral facing short-term stress of ammonium loading","authors":"Molly A. Fisher, Walter K. Dodds, Héloïse Rouzé, Sarah Lemer","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70491","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70491","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scleractinian coral evolved under nitrogen (N)-limited conditions. The increase in N flux from anthropogenic activities to these otherwise N-depleted environments is threatening coral health and coral reef ecosystem function. We tested the effect of elevated ammonium (NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup>) loading on <i>Acropora</i> metabolism responses (respiration, gross primary production, and NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup> uptake) on healthy aquacultured <i>Acropora</i> sp. and compared responses to wild <i>Acropora pulchra</i> from Guam where corals are threatened by eutrophication. We quantified <sup>15</sup>N isotope uptake, metabolism in custom metabolism chambers, and tissue N and carbon (C) content following NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup> loading. For aquacultured <i>Acropora</i> sp., we found that NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup> loading stimulated primary production and respiration, but did not significantly alter rates of uptake or tissue C or N content. Conversely, the wild <i>A. pulchra</i> did not respond to NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup> loading and was generally resistant to short-term exposures of NH<sub>4</sub><sup>+</sup> loading. The change in rates of primary production within the aquacultured coral experiment suggests that sustained increases in N availability could upset stoichiometric regulation in coral. Few studies have coupled N cycling and metabolism rates, so our results serve as an important resource for understanding the biological activity of scleractinian coral, particularly a common wild coral from Guam, where extended events of increased anthropogenic N are increasing disease prevalence and decreasing coral reef diversity.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70491","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145904898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evan H. Campbell Grant, Jo A. Werba, Riley O. Mummah, Adrianne B. Brand
Many salamander populations are declining, and methods to determine how best to allocate limited resources to slow or reverse these declines could support land managers in their decision-making processes. Multiple types of uncertainty may delay management decisions, including when (1) knowledge of a species' ecology is incomplete, (2) climate change effects on environmental covariates are uncertain, and (3) the efficacy of management alternatives is unknown. For management decisions, a value-of-information analysis can identify which uncertainties are critical to reduce in order to identify an optimal strategy from a set of possible management actions. If the same management action is optimal across the full range of uncertainties, then resources for research can be redirected toward active management. Using value-of-information analyses, we examine the effect of uncertainty on identifying optimal management to maximize the future expected occupancy of Plethodon shenandoah, a Federally Endangered high-elevation endemic salamander that is threatened by climate change. Out of 11 management actions proposed by National Park Service managers, those that increase environmental moisture are expected to maximize occupancy, and we find that the selection of this action is robust to all the identified uncertainties. We show that, even in systems with multiple sources of large uncertainty, value of information analyses discriminate among investments in species management.
{"title":"The value of reducing uncertainties to support the management of a high-elevation endemic salamander","authors":"Evan H. Campbell Grant, Jo A. Werba, Riley O. Mummah, Adrianne B. Brand","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70434","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Many salamander populations are declining, and methods to determine how best to allocate limited resources to slow or reverse these declines could support land managers in their decision-making processes. Multiple types of uncertainty may delay management decisions, including when (1) knowledge of a species' ecology is incomplete, (2) climate change effects on environmental covariates are uncertain, and (3) the efficacy of management alternatives is unknown. For management decisions, a value-of-information analysis can identify which uncertainties are critical to reduce in order to identify an optimal strategy from a set of possible management actions. If the same management action is optimal across the full range of uncertainties, then resources for research can be redirected toward active management. Using value-of-information analyses, we examine the effect of uncertainty on identifying optimal management to maximize the future expected occupancy of <i>Plethodon shenandoah</i>, a Federally Endangered high-elevation endemic salamander that is threatened by climate change. Out of 11 management actions proposed by National Park Service managers, those that increase environmental moisture are expected to maximize occupancy, and we find that the selection of this action is robust to all the identified uncertainties. We show that, even in systems with multiple sources of large uncertainty, value of information analyses discriminate among investments in species management.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"16 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70434","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145891312","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jonathan D. Lautenbach, Aaron C. Pratt, Jeffrey L. Beck
The lek hotspot hypothesis predicts that leks will form in areas where males are more likely to encounter females, providing wildlife managers with a framework supporting the use of leks as the focus for prairie and shrubland grouse conservation and monitoring. The lek hotspot hypothesis also implies that the number of males attending leks (lek size) will be higher in areas where there are more females. We used sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) to evaluate whether lek locations and lek size were more influenced by habitat requirements during different seasons or by landscape features that minimized risks to males attending leks or increased the probability of detection of leks by nearby females. First, we evaluated which landscape features influenced habitat selection and mortality risk during different seasons: nesting (April–June), brood-rearing (June–August), early nonbreeding (September–November), and late nonbreeding (December–March) seasons in south-central Wyoming (n = 213 VHF-marked females; 2017–2020). We found that habitat selection and mortality risk varied by season. Subsequently, we modeled lek locations and lek size relative to seasonal habitat requirements (selection and mortality risk) and landscape features to identify key variables explaining lek site selection and lek size. We found that lek site selection was related to landscape features that promoted the detection of leks by females and to seasonal habitat. Specifically, leks were located in areas surrounded by more herbaceous vegetation and litter, less rugged terrain, and more nesting habitat. We found that lek size was related to seasonal habitat, with larger leks surrounded by more brood-rearing habitat. Our findings suggest that leks were located in areas that increased the probability of detection by females and in areas more likely to be frequented by females, consistent with the lek hotspot hypothesis. Our research supports continuing to use lek locations as focal points for habitat management for lekking grouse.
{"title":"Landscape features and seasonal habitat predict lek site selection and lek size of a Tympanuchus grouse","authors":"Jonathan D. Lautenbach, Aaron C. Pratt, Jeffrey L. Beck","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70517","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The lek hotspot hypothesis predicts that leks will form in areas where males are more likely to encounter females, providing wildlife managers with a framework supporting the use of leks as the focus for prairie and shrubland grouse conservation and monitoring. The lek hotspot hypothesis also implies that the number of males attending leks (lek size) will be higher in areas where there are more females. We used sharp-tailed grouse (<i>Tympanuchus phasianellus</i>) to evaluate whether lek locations and lek size were more influenced by habitat requirements during different seasons or by landscape features that minimized risks to males attending leks or increased the probability of detection of leks by nearby females. First, we evaluated which landscape features influenced habitat selection and mortality risk during different seasons: nesting (April–June), brood-rearing (June–August), early nonbreeding (September–November), and late nonbreeding (December–March) seasons in south-central Wyoming (<i>n</i> = 213 VHF-marked females; 2017–2020). We found that habitat selection and mortality risk varied by season. Subsequently, we modeled lek locations and lek size relative to seasonal habitat requirements (selection and mortality risk) and landscape features to identify key variables explaining lek site selection and lek size. We found that lek site selection was related to landscape features that promoted the detection of leks by females and to seasonal habitat. Specifically, leks were located in areas surrounded by more herbaceous vegetation and litter, less rugged terrain, and more nesting habitat. We found that lek size was related to seasonal habitat, with larger leks surrounded by more brood-rearing habitat. Our findings suggest that leks were located in areas that increased the probability of detection by females and in areas more likely to be frequented by females, consistent with the lek hotspot hypothesis. Our research supports continuing to use lek locations as focal points for habitat management for lekking grouse.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"16 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70517","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrea Mojzes, Katalin Szitár, Gábor Ónodi, Ildikó Orbán, György Kröel-Dulay
Extreme events, such as droughts, may severely affect ecosystem structure and functions in the short term. While in a stable climate, ecosystems are expected to recover in the long term, in an era of accelerating climate change, it is a critical question whether ecosystems recover to their pre-drought state and what limits recovery. In a temperate grassland in Central Hungary, we monitored permanent vegetation plots and analyzed changes in species and functional group dominance on a yearly basis from 1999 to 2023, a period with increasing temperature but no trend in precipitation. Extreme droughts in 2003 and 2022 caused mass diebacks of the dominant perennial bunchgrasses, Festuca vaginata and Stipa borysthenica. Following the 2003 drought, annual species became temporarily dominant. Although perennial grasses regained dominance by 2006, this included a shift in dominant species from Festuca to Stipa for over a decade. In 2016, however, a mass establishment of Festuca occurred, which, in turn, enabled Festuca to recover and regain dominance by 2021. A detailed sub-sampling of grass seedlings from 1999 to 2008 revealed that high seedling emergence and survival were much less frequent for Festuca than for Stipa, which likely explains the shift in species dominance to Stipa and the delayed post-drought recovery of Festuca. The long-term (1901–2023) weather records for the study area showed no trend in the frequency of drought types that caused mass mortality of perennial grasses in the last 25 years. Collectively, these results suggest that our study system still has the capacity to recover from extreme droughts, but the recovery time of dominant species is unpredictable, and more frequent droughts in the future may prevent recovery and induce persistent change. In general, our results underscore the importance of demographic processes related to seedling establishment in understanding and predicting the recovery from mass dieback events in a changing climate.
{"title":"Extreme drought and long-term vegetation change: Seedling establishment as a bottleneck of grassland recovery","authors":"Andrea Mojzes, Katalin Szitár, Gábor Ónodi, Ildikó Orbán, György Kröel-Dulay","doi":"10.1002/ecs2.70475","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70475","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme events, such as droughts, may severely affect ecosystem structure and functions in the short term. While in a stable climate, ecosystems are expected to recover in the long term, in an era of accelerating climate change, it is a critical question whether ecosystems recover to their pre-drought state and what limits recovery. In a temperate grassland in Central Hungary, we monitored permanent vegetation plots and analyzed changes in species and functional group dominance on a yearly basis from 1999 to 2023, a period with increasing temperature but no trend in precipitation. Extreme droughts in 2003 and 2022 caused mass diebacks of the dominant perennial bunchgrasses, <i>Festuca vaginata</i> and <i>Stipa borysthenica</i>. Following the 2003 drought, annual species became temporarily dominant. Although perennial grasses regained dominance by 2006, this included a shift in dominant species from <i>Festuca</i> to <i>Stipa</i> for over a decade. In 2016, however, a mass establishment of <i>Festuca</i> occurred, which, in turn, enabled <i>Festuca</i> to recover and regain dominance by 2021. A detailed sub-sampling of grass seedlings from 1999 to 2008 revealed that high seedling emergence and survival were much less frequent for <i>Festuca</i> than for <i>Stipa</i>, which likely explains the shift in species dominance to <i>Stipa</i> and the delayed post-drought recovery of <i>Festuca</i>. The long-term (1901–2023) weather records for the study area showed no trend in the frequency of drought types that caused mass mortality of perennial grasses in the last 25 years. Collectively, these results suggest that our study system still has the capacity to recover from extreme droughts, but the recovery time of dominant species is unpredictable, and more frequent droughts in the future may prevent recovery and induce persistent change. In general, our results underscore the importance of demographic processes related to seedling establishment in understanding and predicting the recovery from mass dieback events in a changing climate.</p>","PeriodicalId":48930,"journal":{"name":"Ecosphere","volume":"16 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecs2.70475","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145824788","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}