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The “regime shift extinctions” hypothesis and mass extinction of waterbirds in Hawaiʻi “政权转移灭绝”假说与夏威夷水鸟的大规模灭绝
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70445
Kristen C. Harmon, Melissa R. Price, Kawika B. Winter

Studies of biodiversity loss commonly imply that species extinctions occurred as a direct result of initial human arrival and thus are attributable to stewardship failures of Indigenous Peoples. However, recent studies have suggested this assumption is not supported by the evidence, prompting a global reevaluation of existing assumptions. To assess the relationship between human arrival in the Hawaiian Islands and documented declines in waterbird biodiversity, we reviewed empirical evidence from paleoecological studies. We first identified the time period that extinct Hawaiian waterbird species were last observed within the fossil record. We then evaluated four hypotheses proposed to explain drivers of Holocene waterbird extinctions: (1) the overkill hypothesis; (2) the deforestation hypothesis; (3) the climate change hypothesis; and (4) the species introductions hypothesis. Of the 18 extinct waterbird species evaluated in this study, 10 were last observed in the fossil record prior to Polynesian arrival, 6 were last observed in the fossil record during the Polynesian era, and 2 were last visually observed after European arrival. Extinctions that possibly occurred during the Polynesian era were likely caused by a suite of factors, some anthropogenic and some non-anthropogenic. Our findings contradict previous studies that attributed Holocene waterbird extinctions to hunting and deforestation by Native Hawaiians and suggest a future line of inquiry regarding a proposed “regime shift extinctions” in hypothesis to explain complex impacts of human-mediated and climatic drivers of extinction in the Anthropocene.

关于生物多样性丧失的研究通常暗示,物种灭绝是人类最初到达的直接结果,因此可归因于土著人民管理工作的失败。然而,最近的研究表明,这一假设没有证据支持,促使全球对现有假设进行重新评估。为了评估人类到达夏威夷群岛与水鸟生物多样性下降之间的关系,我们回顾了来自古生态学研究的经验证据。我们首先确定了在化石记录中最后一次观察到灭绝的夏威夷水鸟物种的时间。然后,我们评估了四种解释全新世水鸟灭绝驱动因素的假说:(1)过度捕杀假说;(2)森林砍伐假说;(3)气候变化假说;(4)物种引入假说。在本研究评估的18种已灭绝的水鸟中,有10种是在波利尼西亚人到达之前的化石记录中最后观察到的,6种是在波利尼西亚时代的化石记录中最后观察到的,2种是在欧洲人到达之后最后观察到的。可能发生在波利尼西亚时代的物种灭绝很可能是由一系列因素造成的,有些是人为的,有些是非人为的。我们的发现与之前的研究相矛盾,这些研究将全新世水鸟的灭绝归因于夏威夷原住民的狩猎和森林砍伐,并提出了一个关于“政权转移灭绝”假说的未来调查路线,以解释人类世人类介导和气候驱动因素对灭绝的复杂影响。
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引用次数: 0
Species richness, composition, and dominance of core and climate relicts of African miombo woodlands 非洲苗木林地核心和气候遗迹的物种丰富度、组成和优势
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70498
Brenden Pienaar, Ed T. F. Witkowski, Dave I. Thompson, Justice Muvengwi

The miombo woodlands, which span about 10% of the African continent, are essential for the ecosystem services they provide. These woodlands are mainly dominated by the genera Julbernardia, Isoberlinia, and Brachystegia. However, there is limited understanding of how species dominance and richness change in relict sites, which are far removed from the core miombo woodlands. In this study, we anticipated that relict sites would show reduced species diversity due to their isolation from the core miombo woodlands and their exposure to different species compositions. We sampled vegetation using modified Whittaker plots (50 m × 20 m) across four sites: core miombo woodland (n = 14), miombo edge (n = 19), Mozambique relict (n = 18), and South Africa relict (n = 21). Within each plot, we measured tree height, basal diameter, and canopy dimensions for mature trees; root collar diameter for saplings (20 m × 5 m subplots); and recorded seedling species and counts (in 5 m × 2 m subplots). Temperature and rainfall gradients were also assessed across the sites. Species richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity, and species evenness were compared between sites using one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Species composition differences between sites were evaluated using analysis of similarity (ANOSIM). Our results revealed a pattern where species richness, the Shannon–Wiener index, and evenness increased with decreasing relict size. Interestingly, evenness declined from juvenile to adult stages within sites, suggesting changes in species composition over time. Significant differences in species composition were observed between sites, with the most pronounced dissimilarities between the core miombo woodland and Mozambique relict. Our findings highlight that while key miombo species remained dominant and important, the relict sites demonstrated increased species richness. This suggests that these isolated sites might harbor high biodiversity, potentially due to their high perimeter-to-area ratio, which makes them more susceptible to species invasions. Additionally, the warmer temperatures recorded at the relict sites could be driving thermophilization, further contributing to the richness and diversity observed. These insights are crucial for informing conservation strategies for miombo woodlands and their relicts in the face of ongoing climate change.

非洲森林约占非洲大陆面积的10%,对其提供的生态系统服务至关重要。这些林地主要以Julbernardia属、Isoberlinia属和Brachystegia属为主。然而,人们对远离核心林地的遗存遗址中物种优势度和丰富度的变化了解有限。在本研究中,我们预计遗存遗址由于与核心林地的隔离以及暴露于不同的物种组成而导致物种多样性降低。我们使用改良的Whittaker样地(50 m × 20 m)在四个地点进行植被采样:miombo核心林地(n = 14)、miombo边缘(n = 19)、莫桑比克遗迹(n = 18)和南非遗迹(n = 21)。在每个样地内,我们测量了成熟树木的树高、基径和冠层尺寸;幼树根颈直径(20 m × 5 m小样地);记录幼苗种类和数量(5 m × 2 m小样)。还评估了各个站点的温度和降雨梯度。物种丰富度、Shannon-Wiener多样性和物种均匀度采用单因素方差分析(ANOVA)进行比较。采用相似度分析(ANOSIM)评价不同地点间物种组成差异。结果表明,物种丰富度、Shannon-Wiener指数和均匀度均随遗迹规模的减小而增大。有趣的是,从幼年期到成年期,均匀度有所下降,这表明物种组成随着时间的推移而变化。不同地点的物种组成存在显著差异,其中miombo核心林地与莫桑比克遗址的差异最为明显。我们的研究结果强调,虽然关键的灵长类物种仍然占主导地位和重要地位,但遗存遗址的物种丰富度却有所增加。这表明这些孤立的地点可能拥有高生物多样性,可能是由于它们的高周长面积比,这使得它们更容易受到物种入侵。此外,在遗迹遗址记录到的温度升高可能推动了热干化,进一步促进了观察到的丰富性和多样性。这些见解对于在面临持续气候变化的情况下,为miombo林地及其遗迹的保护策略提供信息至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Developing an ecological risk-based approach to facilitate licensing offshore wind development 制定基于生态风险的方法,促进海上风电开发许可
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70520
S. G. Bolam, K. M. Cooper, A. -L. Downie

The increasing societal demands on the seabed due to the expansion of offshore wind energy highlight an urgent need to better understand the relationship between human activities and the structure and function of seabed ecosystems. In this paper, we propose an empirically derived approach to quantify relative ecological risk to benthic invertebrate assemblages from future offshore wind development. Using benthic data from over 22,000 seabed grab samples across the UK shelf and wider North Sea contained in OneBenthic, a freely available online data repository, we produce modeled raster layers for three biological criteria upon which we define ecological risk. These are (1) relative benthic sensitivity based on response traits expression, (2) benthic biodiversity, and (3) assemblage rarity. We create a holistic map based on these three layers and discuss how this information may be used, using a new online tool, to assist decisions regarding future offshore development to minimize potential impacts on benthic assemblages. Given the broad spatial coverage of our maps, our tool could help expedite the expansion of offshore wind in a large area of the northeast Atlantic, whilst the underlying methodology can be applied to other regions with extensive benthic survey data, thereby facilitating international commitments to reduce carbon emissions. We propose how the maps may be improved and discuss the future incorporation of extra criteria into the framework.

由于海上风能的发展,社会对海底的需求不断增加,因此迫切需要更好地了解人类活动与海底生态系统结构和功能之间的关系。在本文中,我们提出了一种经验推导的方法来量化未来海上风电开发对底栖无脊椎动物群落的相对生态风险。使用来自英国大陆架和更广泛的北海的22,000多个海底抓取样本的底栖生物数据,OneBenthic是一个免费提供的在线数据存储库,我们根据三个生物标准生成模型栅格层,我们根据这些标准定义生态风险。它们是(1)基于响应性状表达的底栖生物相对敏感性,(2)底栖生物多样性,(3)组合稀有性。我们基于这三个层创建了一个整体地图,并讨论了如何使用这些信息,使用一个新的在线工具,来帮助决定未来的海上开发,以尽量减少对底栖生物群落的潜在影响。鉴于我们的地图具有广泛的空间覆盖范围,我们的工具可以帮助加快东北大西洋大片地区海上风电的扩张,同时潜在的方法可以应用于其他拥有广泛底底调查数据的地区,从而促进减少碳排放的国际承诺。我们提出了如何改进地图,并讨论了未来将额外标准纳入框架的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Operational sex ratio bias due to sex-specific cohort splitting in response to predation 由于特定性别群体分裂对捕食行为的反应而产生的操作性别比偏差
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70518
Oliver Miler, František Marec, Dietmar Straile

The operational sex ratio (OSR), that is, the local ratio of fertilizable females to sexually active males at any given time, is of key importance for the strength of sexual selection and the reproduction of populations. We hypothesize that sex-specific cohort splitting, that is, when one sex mostly metamorphoses while the other mostly enters diapause, may lead to OSR bias in nature. The OSR of an aquatic moth, Acentria ephemerella, has been shown to be strongly male-biased in situ. Here, we use a mesocosm experiment in which we determine the sexes of active, diapausing, and metamorphosing larvae to test whether the male bias in Acentria is due to sex-specific mortality or sex-specific cohort splitting. Fish predation did not result in a strong male bias of the whole population but increased male bias in pupae and female bias in diapausing larvae. The opposite effect of fish on pupal versus diapausing larval sex ratios suggests that fish-induced sex-specific cohort splitting, rather than sex-specific mortality, caused the OSR bias of Acentria observed in situ. Future research needs to study whether the OSR bias is an adaptive response to the presumably higher fish predation pressure on females or a maladaptive byproduct of sex-specific activity and growth responses to fish presence. Overall, shifts in OSR due to sex-specific cohort splitting could be a more common component of arthropod life histories than previously thought.

有效性比(OSR),即在任何给定时间内可受精的雌性与性活跃的雄性的局部比例,对性选择的强度和种群的繁殖具有关键重要性。我们假设,性别特异性的群体分裂,即当一种性别主要变态而另一种性别主要进入滞育时,可能导致自然界中的OSR偏差。水生飞蛾Acentria ephemerella的OSR已被证明在原位具有强烈的雄性偏倚。在这里,我们使用了一个中胚层实验,在这个实验中,我们确定了活跃的、滞育的和变态的幼虫的性别,以测试雄性偏向是由于性别特异性死亡率还是性别特异性队列分裂。鱼类捕食并不会导致整个种群的雄偏,但会增加蛹的雄偏和滞育幼虫的雌偏。鱼类对蛹和滞育幼虫性别比的相反影响表明,鱼类诱导的性别特异性群体分裂,而不是性别特异性死亡率,导致了原位观察到的无虫的OSR偏倚。未来的研究需要研究OSR偏差是对鱼类对雌性可能更高的捕食压力的适应性反应,还是对鱼类存在的性别特异性活动和生长反应的适应性不良副产品。总的来说,由于性别特异性队列分裂导致的OSR变化可能是节肢动物生活史中比以前认为的更常见的组成部分。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral responses of goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) to simulated military sonar 鹅喙鲸对模拟军事声纳的行为反应
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70501
B. L. Southall, R. S. Schick, W. R. Cioffi, S. L. DeRuiter, H. J. Foley, C. M. Harris, A. E. Harshbarger, J. E. Joseph, T. Margolina, D. P. Nowacek, N. J. Quick, Z. T. Swaim, L. Thomas, D. M. Waples, D. L. Webster, J. H. Wisse, A. J. Read

We report direct measurements of changes in diving and movement behavior for 53 goose-beaked whales (Ziphius cavirostris) in relation to experimentally controlled mid-frequency (3–4 kHz) active sonar (MFAS) signals. These signals simulate powerful Navy sources that have been associated with multiple mortal stranding events for this species. We deployed a multi-scale combination of tags to monitor individual whales, including 50 long-duration (weeks), coarse-resolution satellite-transmitting tags and 3 short-duration (hours), high-resolution archival depth, orientation, and acoustic tags. We evaluated behavioral responses during 13 experimental trials (9 MFAS; 4 no-MFAS controls), resulting in 72 exposure events; some individuals were exposed in multiple trials. Whales were exposed at known and modeled horizontal ranges from ~2 to >200 km and from below ambient noise levels to received levels (RLs) up to ~142 dB re: 1μPa (root-mean-square [RMS]). We investigated changes in diving and movement behavior separately, with a suite of metrics, descriptive evaluations, and statistical tests. We observed similar patterns and probabilities of behavioral changes for control trials and the lowest RL conditions (<100 dB). Above 100 dB RLs, increasingly prevalent and consistent responses occurred, including extended deep dives, prolonged periods between deep dives, directed spatial movement away from the source, and cessation of echolocation. Aspects of these cryptic responses typically persisted for hours following exposure but did not result in broad-scale habitat abandonment. Our study builds upon experimental and observational studies conducted on sonar testing ranges and expands our understanding of the response of this species to MFAS in a region where operational sonar use occurs far less commonly than on Navy testing ranges. These data are directly applicable in the conservation and effective management of this sensitive, protected species.

我们报告了53只鹅喙鲸(Ziphius cavirostris)在实验控制的中频(3-4 kHz)主动声呐(MFAS)信号下潜水和运动行为变化的直接测量结果。这些信号模拟了强大的海军来源,这些来源与该物种的多个致命搁浅事件有关。我们部署了多尺度标签组合来监测单个鲸鱼,包括50个长时间(周),粗分辨率卫星传输标签和3个短时间(小时),高分辨率档案深度,方向和声学标签。我们评估了13个实验试验中的行为反应(9个MFAS对照组,4个无MFAS对照组),共产生72个暴露事件;有些人在多次试验中暴露。鲸鱼暴露在已知和模拟的水平范围内,从~2到>;200公里,从低于环境噪声水平到接收噪声水平(RLs)高达~142 dB re: 1μPa(均方根[RMS])。我们分别研究了潜水和运动行为的变化,采用了一套指标、描述性评估和统计测试。我们在对照试验和最低RL条件(<100 dB)中观察到类似的行为改变模式和概率。在100 dB RLs以上,会出现越来越普遍和一致的响应,包括深度潜水时间延长、深度潜水间隔延长、定向空间运动远离源以及回声定位停止。这些隐蔽性反应的各个方面通常在暴露后持续数小时,但不会导致大面积的栖息地放弃。我们的研究建立在对声纳测试范围进行的实验和观察研究的基础上,并扩展了我们对该物种对MFAS反应的理解,该地区的操作声纳使用频率远低于海军测试范围。这些数据直接适用于保护和有效管理这一敏感的受保护物种。
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引用次数: 0
Integrating climate data and river modeling to reveal Chinook salmon habitat conditions in subarctic river basins 结合气候数据和河流模型揭示亚北极河流流域奇努克鲑鱼栖息地条件
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70399
Rebecca Shaftel, Megan L. Feddern, Stephanie A. McAfee, Erik R. Schoen, Curry Cunningham, Vanessa R. von Biela, Josh Paul, Yifan Cheng, Andrew Newman, Margaret Perdue, Jon Schwenk, Al von Finster, Jeff Falke

Climatic extremes can impact the productivity of aquatic species, affecting ecosystems and fishery-dependent communities. Advances in climate products, such as gridded datasets and downscaled projections, may be useful for quantifying freshwater habitat conditions and predicting climate change effects on fish. However, limited guidance exists for selecting climate products to develop indicators of freshwater habitat conditions that influence fish population dynamics. Here, we develop an approach for identifying streamflow and stream temperature models to address this need. We evaluated skill in predicted versus observed streamflow and stream temperature, with predictions depending on different models and gridded climate data as inputs. The best performing models were used in a case study exploring habitat conditions influencing Chinook salmon in the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins, two remote high-latitude watersheds with few in situ habitat observations and recent salmon declines. Three modeled streamflow datasets had variable performance (median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies from 0.39 to 0.70). Three gridded temperature products differed in their ability to explain variation in weekly stream temperatures (median r2 from 0.42 to 0.76). We selected a single gridded air temperature dataset to compare two novel predictive stream temperature models, both of which had good accuracy (root mean squared error [RMSE] of 1.19 and 0.95°C). Stream temperature indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum temperatures during adult migration and cumulative temperatures during juvenile rearing, had high spatial correlation across tributaries within the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins and showed significant warming over the past 40 years. Streamflow indicators calculated from modeled daily data, maximum flow during spawning and median flow during rearing, had few trends and were largely uncorrelated within the Yukon River basin and moderately correlated within the Kuskokwim River basin. Overall, we found that generic measures of model performance varied considerably, and it was important to consider the models best suited to our case study. For both streamflow and stream temperature, multiple high-performing models allowed estimation of ecologically relevant conditions affecting Chinook salmon. The approach we used to estimate local-scale habitat conditions has value to identify synchronous conditions that may influence multiple salmon populations under a changing subarctic climate.

极端气候会影响水生物种的生产力,影响生态系统和依赖渔业的社区。气候产品的进展,如网格数据集和缩小比例的预测,可能有助于量化淡水生境条件和预测气候变化对鱼类的影响。然而,在选择气候产品以制定影响鱼类种群动态的淡水生境条件指标方面,现有的指导有限。在这里,我们开发了一种方法来识别流流量和流温度模型来解决这一需求。我们评估了预测与观测的河流流量和河流温度的技能,预测取决于不同的模型和网格化气候数据作为输入。在育空河和库斯科维姆河流域,研究了影响奇努克鲑鱼栖息地条件的案例研究中,使用了表现最好的模型,这两个偏远的高纬度流域几乎没有原位栖息地观测,最近鲑鱼数量下降。三个模型流数据集具有不同的性能(纳什-萨特克利夫效率中位数从0.39到0.70)。三个网格温度产品在解释每周河流温度变化的能力上存在差异(r2中位数从0.42到0.76)。我们选择了一个网格化的空气温度数据集来比较两种新的预测流温度模型,这两种模型都具有良好的精度(均方根误差[RMSE]分别为1.19和0.95°C)。在育空河和库斯科温河流域,由模拟日数据计算的河流温度指标、成鱼迁徙期间的最高温度和幼鱼饲养期间的累积温度具有较高的空间相关性,且在过去40年里表现出显著的变暖趋势。在育空河流域内,产卵期间的最大流量和饲养期间的中位数流量变化趋势不大,且基本不相关,而在Kuskokwim河流域则有适度相关。总的来说,我们发现模型性能的通用度量变化很大,考虑最适合我们的案例研究的模型是很重要的。对于河流流量和河流温度,多个高性能模型允许估计影响奇努克鲑鱼的生态相关条件。我们用来估计局部尺度栖息地条件的方法对于确定在变化的亚北极气候下可能影响多种鲑鱼种群的同步条件具有价值。
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引用次数: 0
Stoichiometric regulation of nitrogen and carbon fluxes in Acropora coral facing short-term stress of ammonium loading 短期铵负荷胁迫下鹿角珊瑚氮碳通量的化学计量学调控
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70491
Molly A. Fisher, Walter K. Dodds, Héloïse Rouzé, Sarah Lemer

Scleractinian coral evolved under nitrogen (N)-limited conditions. The increase in N flux from anthropogenic activities to these otherwise N-depleted environments is threatening coral health and coral reef ecosystem function. We tested the effect of elevated ammonium (NH4+) loading on Acropora metabolism responses (respiration, gross primary production, and NH4+ uptake) on healthy aquacultured Acropora sp. and compared responses to wild Acropora pulchra from Guam where corals are threatened by eutrophication. We quantified 15N isotope uptake, metabolism in custom metabolism chambers, and tissue N and carbon (C) content following NH4+ loading. For aquacultured Acropora sp., we found that NH4+ loading stimulated primary production and respiration, but did not significantly alter rates of uptake or tissue C or N content. Conversely, the wild A. pulchra did not respond to NH4+ loading and was generally resistant to short-term exposures of NH4+ loading. The change in rates of primary production within the aquacultured coral experiment suggests that sustained increases in N availability could upset stoichiometric regulation in coral. Few studies have coupled N cycling and metabolism rates, so our results serve as an important resource for understanding the biological activity of scleractinian coral, particularly a common wild coral from Guam, where extended events of increased anthropogenic N are increasing disease prevalence and decreasing coral reef diversity.

硬核珊瑚是在氮限制条件下进化的。人类活动导致的氮通量的增加对珊瑚健康和珊瑚礁生态系统功能构成威胁。我们测试了铵(NH4+)负荷升高对健康养殖的Acropora sp.代谢反应(呼吸、总初级产量和NH4+吸收)的影响,并比较了关岛珊瑚受到富营养化威胁的野生Acropora pulchra的反应。我们量化了15N同位素的吸收,在定制代谢室中的代谢,以及NH4+加载后的组织N和碳(C)含量。在水产养殖的Acropora sp.中,我们发现NH4+负荷刺激了初级生产和呼吸,但没有显著改变吸收速率或组织C和N含量。相反,野生白杨对NH4+负荷没有反应,对短期NH4+负荷一般具有抗性。在水产养殖珊瑚实验中,初级生产速率的变化表明,氮有效性的持续增加可能会扰乱珊瑚的化学计量调节。很少有研究将N循环和代谢率结合起来,因此我们的研究结果可以作为了解硬核珊瑚生物活性的重要资源,特别是来自关岛的一种常见野生珊瑚,在那里,人为N增加的长期事件增加了疾病的患病率,减少了珊瑚礁的多样性。
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引用次数: 0
The value of reducing uncertainties to support the management of a high-elevation endemic salamander 减少不确定性对支持高海拔地方性蝾螈管理的价值
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70434
Evan H. Campbell Grant, Jo A. Werba, Riley O. Mummah, Adrianne B. Brand

Many salamander populations are declining, and methods to determine how best to allocate limited resources to slow or reverse these declines could support land managers in their decision-making processes. Multiple types of uncertainty may delay management decisions, including when (1) knowledge of a species' ecology is incomplete, (2) climate change effects on environmental covariates are uncertain, and (3) the efficacy of management alternatives is unknown. For management decisions, a value-of-information analysis can identify which uncertainties are critical to reduce in order to identify an optimal strategy from a set of possible management actions. If the same management action is optimal across the full range of uncertainties, then resources for research can be redirected toward active management. Using value-of-information analyses, we examine the effect of uncertainty on identifying optimal management to maximize the future expected occupancy of Plethodon shenandoah, a Federally Endangered high-elevation endemic salamander that is threatened by climate change. Out of 11 management actions proposed by National Park Service managers, those that increase environmental moisture are expected to maximize occupancy, and we find that the selection of this action is robust to all the identified uncertainties. We show that, even in systems with multiple sources of large uncertainty, value of information analyses discriminate among investments in species management.

许多蝾螈的数量正在下降,确定如何最好地分配有限的资源以减缓或扭转这些下降的方法可以支持土地管理者的决策过程。多种类型的不确定性可能会延迟管理决策,包括:(1)对物种生态的了解不完整,(2)气候变化对环境协变量的影响不确定,以及(3)管理方案的有效性未知。对于管理决策,信息价值分析可以确定哪些不确定因素是减少的关键,以便从一组可能的管理行动中确定最佳策略。如果相同的管理行动在所有不确定因素中都是最佳的,那么研究资源就可以重新定向到主动管理上。利用信息价值分析,我们研究了不确定性对确定最佳管理的影响,以最大限度地提高受气候变化威胁的联邦濒危高海拔地方性蝾螈的未来预期占用率。在国家公园管理局管理者提出的11项管理措施中,那些增加环境湿度的措施有望最大限度地提高入住率,我们发现,选择这一行动对所有确定的不确定性都是稳健的。我们表明,即使在具有多个大不确定性来源的系统中,信息分析的价值对物种管理的投资也有区别。
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引用次数: 0
Landscape features and seasonal habitat predict lek site selection and lek size of a Tympanuchus grouse 景观特征和季节生境预测了松鸡韭菜的选址和韭菜的大小
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70517
Jonathan D. Lautenbach, Aaron C. Pratt, Jeffrey L. Beck

The lek hotspot hypothesis predicts that leks will form in areas where males are more likely to encounter females, providing wildlife managers with a framework supporting the use of leks as the focus for prairie and shrubland grouse conservation and monitoring. The lek hotspot hypothesis also implies that the number of males attending leks (lek size) will be higher in areas where there are more females. We used sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus) to evaluate whether lek locations and lek size were more influenced by habitat requirements during different seasons or by landscape features that minimized risks to males attending leks or increased the probability of detection of leks by nearby females. First, we evaluated which landscape features influenced habitat selection and mortality risk during different seasons: nesting (April–June), brood-rearing (June–August), early nonbreeding (September–November), and late nonbreeding (December–March) seasons in south-central Wyoming (n = 213 VHF-marked females; 2017–2020). We found that habitat selection and mortality risk varied by season. Subsequently, we modeled lek locations and lek size relative to seasonal habitat requirements (selection and mortality risk) and landscape features to identify key variables explaining lek site selection and lek size. We found that lek site selection was related to landscape features that promoted the detection of leks by females and to seasonal habitat. Specifically, leks were located in areas surrounded by more herbaceous vegetation and litter, less rugged terrain, and more nesting habitat. We found that lek size was related to seasonal habitat, with larger leks surrounded by more brood-rearing habitat. Our findings suggest that leks were located in areas that increased the probability of detection by females and in areas more likely to be frequented by females, consistent with the lek hotspot hypothesis. Our research supports continuing to use lek locations as focal points for habitat management for lekking grouse.

韭葱热点假说预测,韭葱会在雄性更有可能遇到雌性的地区形成,这为野生动物管理者提供了一个框架,支持将韭葱作为草原和灌木丛松鸡保护和监测的重点。韭热点假说还暗示,在有更多雌性的地区,参加韭的雄性数量(韭大小)会更高。我们以尖尾松鸡(Tympanuchus phasianellus)为研究对象,评估韭葱的位置和大小是否更受不同季节栖息地需求的影响,或者受景观特征的影响,这些景观特征可以降低雄性韭葱的风险,或增加附近雌性发现韭葱的可能性。首先,我们评估了景观特征在不同季节对栖息地选择和死亡风险的影响:怀俄明州中南部的筑巢季节(4 - 6月)、育雏季节(6 - 8月)、早期非繁殖期(9 - 11月)和晚期非繁殖期(12月- 3月)(n = 213只vhf标记的雌性;2017-2020)。我们发现栖息地选择和死亡风险随季节而变化。随后,我们建立了韭菜位置和韭菜大小与季节性栖息地需求(选择和死亡风险)和景观特征的模型,以确定解释韭菜地点选择和韭菜大小的关键变量。研究发现,韭葱的选址与促进雌虫发现韭葱的景观特征和季节性生境有关。具体来说,韭葱分布在草本植被和凋落物较多、地形崎岖、筑巢栖息地较多的地区。研究发现,韭菜的大小与季节生境有关,较大的韭菜周围有较多的育雏生境。我们的研究结果表明,韭葱位于女性发现概率更高的区域,以及女性更可能经常光顾的区域,这与韭葱热点假说一致。我们的研究支持继续使用漏水地点作为漏水松鸡栖息地管理的重点。
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引用次数: 0
Extreme drought and long-term vegetation change: Seedling establishment as a bottleneck of grassland recovery 极端干旱与长期植被变化:育苗是草地恢复的瓶颈
IF 2.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.70475
Andrea Mojzes, Katalin Szitár, Gábor Ónodi, Ildikó Orbán, György Kröel-Dulay

Extreme events, such as droughts, may severely affect ecosystem structure and functions in the short term. While in a stable climate, ecosystems are expected to recover in the long term, in an era of accelerating climate change, it is a critical question whether ecosystems recover to their pre-drought state and what limits recovery. In a temperate grassland in Central Hungary, we monitored permanent vegetation plots and analyzed changes in species and functional group dominance on a yearly basis from 1999 to 2023, a period with increasing temperature but no trend in precipitation. Extreme droughts in 2003 and 2022 caused mass diebacks of the dominant perennial bunchgrasses, Festuca vaginata and Stipa borysthenica. Following the 2003 drought, annual species became temporarily dominant. Although perennial grasses regained dominance by 2006, this included a shift in dominant species from Festuca to Stipa for over a decade. In 2016, however, a mass establishment of Festuca occurred, which, in turn, enabled Festuca to recover and regain dominance by 2021. A detailed sub-sampling of grass seedlings from 1999 to 2008 revealed that high seedling emergence and survival were much less frequent for Festuca than for Stipa, which likely explains the shift in species dominance to Stipa and the delayed post-drought recovery of Festuca. The long-term (1901–2023) weather records for the study area showed no trend in the frequency of drought types that caused mass mortality of perennial grasses in the last 25 years. Collectively, these results suggest that our study system still has the capacity to recover from extreme droughts, but the recovery time of dominant species is unpredictable, and more frequent droughts in the future may prevent recovery and induce persistent change. In general, our results underscore the importance of demographic processes related to seedling establishment in understanding and predicting the recovery from mass dieback events in a changing climate.

干旱等极端事件可能在短期内严重影响生态系统的结构和功能。虽然在稳定的气候下,生态系统有望在长期内恢复,但在气候变化加速的时代,生态系统是否会恢复到干旱前的状态以及是什么限制了恢复,这是一个关键问题。以匈牙利中部温带草原为研究对象,分析了1999 - 2023年(气温升高,降水无变化趋势)多年来固定植被样地的物种和功能群优势度变化。2003年和2022年的极端干旱导致了多年生束草、淫羊茅和针茅的大量枯死。2003年的干旱之后,一年生物种暂时占据了主导地位。虽然多年生禾本科植物在2006年恢复了优势地位,但这包括优势物种在十多年的时间里从无茅属向针茅属的转变。然而,在2016年,大规模建立了Festuca,这反过来又使Festuca在2021年恢复并重新获得主导地位。1999 - 2008年对禾草苗木的亚样本分析表明,短茅属禾草苗木的出苗率和成活率远低于针茅属禾草苗木,这可能解释了短茅属禾草苗木的优势向针茅属禾草苗木的转移以及短茅属禾草苗木干旱后恢复的延迟。研究区1901—2023年的长期气象记录显示,近25年来导致多年生牧草大量死亡的干旱类型发生频率没有变化。总体而言,这些结果表明我们的研究系统仍然具有从极端干旱中恢复的能力,但优势物种的恢复时间是不可预测的,未来更频繁的干旱可能会阻止恢复并导致持续变化。总的来说,我们的研究结果强调了与幼苗建立相关的人口统计学过程对于理解和预测气候变化中大规模枯死事件的恢复的重要性。
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Ecosphere
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