Rapid urbanization is causing severe traffic congestion and carbon emissions. Leveraging underground space for Underground Container Logistics Systems (UCLS) is a promising solution, but its adoption is hindered by substantial capital investment barriers. To overcome this hurdle, government interventions, such as carbon taxes and subsidies, are considered critical economic levers. However, the quantitative impact of these combined policies on an operator’s investment decision, especially under demand uncertainty, remains unclear. This study develops a Two-Stage Robust Optimization (2S-RO) model from the port operator’s perspective to address this gap. The model determines the optimal strategic investment in UCLS routes (Stage 1) and the corresponding tactical container flow allocation (Stage 2), minimizing total costs under the worst-case demand scenario characterized by a budget-of-uncertainty set. The model is solved using a Column-and-Constraint Generation (C&CG) algorithm. A case study based on the Shanghai port region, consisting of 2 logistics parks and 3 container ports with annual demand of 20,500 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU), analyzes 15 policy scenarios. Results reveal a policy combination “tipping point” effect: neither carbon tax nor subsidy alone triggers UCLS investment, but their combination at a threshold intensity (15 yuan/kg carbon tax + 15 % subsidy) makes UCLS economically viable, achieving 16.13 % cost savings, 59.08 % carbon emission reduction (from 2,847.6 to 1,165.2 tons/year), and a 2.9-year investment payback period. Flow allocation analysis shows that at this tipping point, 48.8 % of container flows shift from road transport to UCLS (37.6 % to shallow systems and 11.2 % to deep systems). Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that demand uncertainty, investment cost variations, and carbon emission caps significantly influence investment decisions: higher uncertainty requires stronger policy support, ±30 % cost variations substantially alter project viability, and emission caps must be set below 2000 tons/year (70 % of baseline) to effectively drive investment. This research provides a quantitative framework for operators to evaluate UCLS projects under uncertainty and offers evidence-based policy design guidance for policymakers, contributing to sustainable urban underground space utilization and port logistics decarbonization.
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