During the construction planning phase, accurately predicting the construction duration of long-distance tunnels built using Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) is critical for optimizing construction organization and controlling costs. However, the uncertainty of geological conditions and the variability of tunneling efficiency pose challenges in making precise predictions during the planning phase. To address this issue, this study proposes a Monte Carlo model based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), incorporating the uncertainties in surrounding rock distribution and the evolution of tunneling efficiency. The prediction process is divided into two core stages. The first stage involves integrating borehole data and surrounding rock information obtained from preliminary geological surveys. Using a Markov chain corrected by Bayes’ formula, the uncertainty in geological spatial characteristics is continuously deduced. In the second stage, we first propose a tunneling efficiency decay factor (e) and couple it with the uncertainty in the surrounding rock distribution to establish simulation rules for the construction duration of long-distance TBM tunnels. Subsequently, the Monte Carlo method under LHS sampling is applied for the duration simulation. Finally, two targeted model transfer strategies are proposed to enhance the model’s applicability across different projects. The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated using the Xinjiang KS super‑long tunnel as a case study. The results demonstrated: (1) After considering the spatial distribution uncertainty of geological conditions and parameter e, the proposed model accurately forecasted the construction duration of long‑distance TBM tunneling, and the average prediction error was less than 4 days. Moreover, the model outperformed existing approaches in accuracy and robustness, and exhibited excellent stability and lower computational resource requirements. (2) Global sensitivity analysis indicated that uncertainty in surrounding rock distribution was the primary driver of duration fluctuations, and the proposed model effectively reduced the impact of this uncertainty on construction duration. Dynamic sensitivity further showed that as the excavation distance increased (beyond 6700 m), the sensitivity index of e reached 0.25–0.40, which significantly impacted construction duration. Furthermore, introducing e reduced the prediction error range by 76.47 %–95.83 %. (3) The proposed model exhibited good transferability, and the effectiveness of both model transfer strategies was demonstrated on the new project. This approach provides a valuable reference for predicting construction durations of long-distance TBM tunneling projects in complex geological conditions.
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