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Cross-system modeling and analysis of cascading failure propagation in large-scale metro stations under extreme flooding events 特大洪涝事件下大型地铁车站级联破坏传播的跨系统建模与分析
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107483
Hai-Yun Li , Dong-Mei Zhang , Huan-Feng Duan , Xu-Wei Zhao
Climate-driven intensification of extreme precipitation is significantly increasing unprecedented flooding risks for underground transportation infrastructure. Current flood risk assessment approaches for large-scale metro stations, characterized by extensive subsystem integration, high passenger volumes, and complex spatial configurations, often fail to capture critical cross-system interactions. This limitation arises mainly from the artificial separation of simulations using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) from cross-system network analysis, which hinders the accurate prediction of cascading infrastructure failures. This study develops an integrated framework that combines CFD simulations with multi-layer network theory to concurrently analyze flood dynamics and system interdependencies. This framework models four critical subsystems of large-scale metro stations, including power, drainage, communication, and pedestrian, as interconnected networks based on established engineering standards. Flood-depth-dependent functions determine infrastructure node states, with thresholds calibrated from engineering standards to ensure physical consistency. The validations with the Shanghai Eastern Hub during a 500-year rainfall event (327 mm over 6 h, with a peak intensity of 90 mm/h) demonstrate that power systems exhibit the highest vulnerability, with functionality declining to 51.5% within 60 min. Furthermore, an analysis of 13,241 cascading failure events reveals that 67.3% are driven by water depth, while 32.7% are influenced by inter-system dependencies. Network analysis uncovers a critical importance-vulnerability paradox: power systems, serving as the network backbone with the highest importance score (0.446), simultaneously exhibit disproportionately elevated vulnerability (0.172) compared to other subsystems. The developed framework incorporates minute-level temporal coupling, validated to capture the dominant characteristics of infrastructure responses while maintaining computational tractability for engineering applications.
气候驱动的极端降水加剧正在显著增加地下交通基础设施前所未有的洪水风险。目前针对大型地铁车站的洪水风险评估方法,其特点是子系统集成广泛、客运量大、空间配置复杂,往往无法捕捉关键的跨系统相互作用。这种限制主要来自于计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟与跨系统网络分析的人为分离,这阻碍了对级联基础设施故障的准确预测。本研究开发了一个将CFD模拟与多层网络理论相结合的集成框架,以同时分析洪水动力学和系统相互依赖性。该框架将大型地铁站的四个关键子系统,包括电力、排水、通信和行人,作为基于既定工程标准的互联网络进行建模。与洪水深度相关的功能决定基础设施节点状态,并根据工程标准校准阈值,以确保物理一致性。对上海东部枢纽500年一次降雨事件(6小时327毫米,峰值强度为90毫米/小时)的验证表明,电力系统表现出最高的脆弱性,60分钟内功能下降到51.5%。对13241个级联破坏事件的分析表明,67.3%的级联破坏事件由水深驱动,32.7%的级联破坏事件受系统间依赖关系的影响。网络分析揭示了一个临界重要性-脆弱性悖论:电力系统作为网络的主干,重要性得分最高(0.446),同时与其他子系统相比,脆弱性表现出不成比例的高(0.172)。开发的框架结合了分钟级时间耦合,经过验证可以捕捉基础设施响应的主要特征,同时保持工程应用的计算可追溯性。
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引用次数: 0
Advance prediction of rock mass classification in tunneling using improved D-S fusion and hybrid machine learning 基于改进D-S融合和混合机器学习的隧道围岩分类预测
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107453
Shikuo Chen , Yifan Hou , Rui Wang , Xiaoyan Zhao
Accurate prediction of rock mass classification is imperative for optimizing safety and cost-efficiency in underground tunnel engineering. Despite its critical importance, conventional single-classification models often exhibit limitations in robustness and accuracy, hindering reliable risk assessment and design optimization. To overcome these persistent challenges, this study proposes a multi-model fusion framework grounded in D-S evidence theory, significantly enhancing classification reliability. Furthermore, an LSTM-based model is developed for ahead-of-face rock class prediction, leveraging geological data from excavated sections. Utilizing 325 field case datasets, unsupervised learning and SMOTE preprocessing were applied, with t-SNE visualization confirming markedly enhanced feature separability. Based on seven key geological indicators, five predictive models spanning classical rock mass rating systems and data-driven machine learning methods were established. These outputs were fused via a D-S evidence theory framework, significantly enhancing classification robustness. Furthermore, hyperparameters of the BP and RF models were optimized via global search algorithms to enhance base classifiers performance. Building upon their test-set metrics, we propose a refinement of the Basic Probability Assignment (BPA) function by integrating precision and accuracy. This modified BPA is adopted as the fusion index with an improved D-S evidence theory framework, establishing a robust rock mass classification model. Validated across three tunnels, the improved D-S model achieved 89.13% accuracy—outperforming all base classifiers. The integrated LSTM predictor further demonstrated robustness to temporal parameter variations. This integrated approach effectively mitigates single-model instability, significantly boosting classification accuracy and robustness. Crucially, its short-range ahead-of-face predictive capability enables proactive support design, enhancing tunnel construction safety.
准确的岩体分类预测对于优化地下隧道工程的安全性和成本效益至关重要。尽管其至关重要,但传统的单一分类模型往往在鲁棒性和准确性方面存在局限性,阻碍了可靠的风险评估和设计优化。为了克服这些持续存在的挑战,本研究提出了一个基于D-S证据理论的多模型融合框架,显著提高了分类的可靠性。此外,利用开挖断面的地质数据,开发了基于lstm的工作面前岩石分类预测模型。利用325个现场案例数据集,应用无监督学习和SMOTE预处理,t-SNE可视化证实显著增强了特征可分离性。基于7个关键地质指标,建立了跨越经典岩体评级系统和数据驱动机器学习方法的5个预测模型。这些输出通过D-S证据理论框架融合,显著增强了分类稳健性。此外,通过全局搜索算法优化BP和RF模型的超参数,以提高基分类器的性能。在他们的测试集指标的基础上,我们提出了一种基本概率分配(BPA)函数的改进,通过整合精度和准确性。采用改进的双酚a作为融合指标,结合改进的D-S证据理论框架,建立了稳健的岩体分类模型。经过三个隧道的验证,改进的D-S模型达到了89.13%的准确率,优于所有基础分类器。综合LSTM预测器进一步证明了对时间参数变化的鲁棒性。这种综合方法有效地减轻了单一模型的不稳定性,显著提高了分类精度和鲁棒性。最重要的是,它的短距离前方预测能力可以实现主动支持设计,提高隧道施工安全性。
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引用次数: 0
Model tests and discrete element simulations on the cracking characteristics of layered soft rock tunnel under different bedding features 不同层理特征下层状软岩隧道裂缝特征的模型试验与离散元模拟
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107454
Wenbo Yang , Haoyu Li , Changhui Zhao , Fangyin Wu , Liangliang Zhao
The angle and direction of bedding have a significant influence on the cracking and damage observed in tunnels excavated through layered soft rock. To investigate the cracking characteristics of tunnel lining structures under varying bedding conditions, this study initially conducted layered soft rock tunnel cracking tests. By analyzing the acoustic emission signals, lining deformation, and evolution of mechanical behavior during the loading process, the spatial distribution of lining cracking locations was determined for different bedding characteristics. Based on this, the cracking characteristics and crack patterns of the lining and surrounding rock were revealed using discrete element simulation. The study results indicated that bedding planes in their normal orientation represented a high-risk area for lining cracking due to stress concentration and inward compression of the lining, which resulted in the rupture of contact force chains and the initiation of cracks. Besides, the bedding characteristics exerted a significant impact on the crack pattern of the tunnel lining. Among these, the crack pattern of the lining evolved from tension/compression to shear, and then back to tension/compression, with deformation and internal forces showing an increasing and then decreasing trend, reaching a peak at an angle of 45°. As the bedding direction increased, cracks transitioned from a dispersed distribution to longitudinal penetration, while shear failure became more pronounced. The deformation and internal forces continued to increase, and the tunnel’s bearing capacity was weakest at a direction of 90°. This study systematically uncovers the failure mechanisms of layered soft rock tunnels, offering direct support for optimizing tunnel support parameters and a theoretical basis for maintaining existing tunnels.
顺层角度和方向对层状软岩隧道的开裂和破坏有重要影响。为了研究不同顺层条件下隧道衬砌结构的开裂特征,本研究初步开展了层状软岩隧道开裂试验。通过分析加载过程中的声发射信号、衬砌变形和力学行为演变,确定了不同层理特征下衬砌开裂位置的空间分布。在此基础上,采用离散元模拟方法揭示了衬砌和围岩的开裂特征和裂纹形态。研究结果表明,由于衬砌的应力集中和向内压缩,衬砌在正常方向上的顺层平面是衬砌开裂的高风险区域,从而导致接触力链断裂,产生裂纹。此外,顺层特性对隧道衬砌裂缝形态也有显著影响。其中,衬砌的裂纹形态由拉/压→剪切→拉/压,变形和内力呈现先增大后减小的趋势,并在45°角处达到峰值。随着顺层方向的增加,裂缝由分散分布向纵向贯通过渡,剪切破坏更加明显。变形和内力持续增大,90°方向隧道承载力最弱。本研究系统揭示了层状软岩隧道的破坏机理,为优化隧道支护参数提供直接支持,为既有隧道的维护提供理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Structural fire behavior of tunnel sections: assessing the effects of full burnout and spalling effects 隧道断面结构火灾行为:评估完全燃尽和剥落效应的影响
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107461
Amin Emadi , Nima Tajik , Alexandre Gomes , Negar Elhami-Khorasani
This paper outlines a study to evaluate the structural response of a reinforced concrete (RC) tunnel lining subjected to a full-burnout RABT ZTV (train) fire using a coupled thermo-mechanical finite element model that simultaneously accounts for soil-structure interaction, cooling phase of fire, and concrete spalling, aspects often neglected in performance evaluations. A simplified, rate-based spalling model to bound outcomes (no-spalling maps to lower bound; spalling maps to upper bound) is implemented, and damage is classified using four indicators: reinforcement temperature, depth of concrete above 300°C, residual displacements, and cracking potential on the soil-facing side. Results show that spalling increases heat penetration and shifts damage class: circumferential rebar peaks at about 650°C with spalling versus about 400°C without; the heated-concrete depth above 300°C increases from 75 mm to 105 mm; and peak steel temperature occurs during cooling, underscoring the need to model the cooling phase. Soil stiffness mainly affects residual crown displacements (dense: 5 mm; loose: 9 mm) but does not change damage class for the considered case study, and no cracking was found on the unexposed side. The framework supports post-fire assessment and performance-based design of tunnel linings where spalling risk is non-negligible, acknowledging the use of a uniform spalling representation with a 2D plane-strain model.
本文概述了一项研究,以评估钢筋混凝土(RC)隧道衬砌在完全燃烧的RABT ZTV(火车)火灾下的结构响应,使用耦合热-力学有限元模型,同时考虑土-结构相互作用,火灾冷却阶段和混凝土剥落,这些方面在性能评估中经常被忽视。采用了一种简化的、基于速率的剥落模型来约束结果(无剥落映射到下界,剥落映射到上界),并使用四个指标对损伤进行分类:钢筋温度、300°C以上的混凝土深度、残余位移和面向土侧的开裂潜力。结果表明,剥落增加了热渗透并改变了损伤等级:剥落时,钢筋在650°C左右达到峰值,而在400°C左右没有剥落;300℃以上的加热混凝土深度由75 mm增加到105 mm;而钢的温度峰值发生在冷却期间,这就强调了对冷却阶段进行建模的必要性。土壤刚度主要影响残余树冠位移(密实:5mm;松散:9mm),但不会改变所考虑的案例研究的损伤等级,未暴露侧未发现开裂。该框架支持火灾后评估和基于性能的隧道衬砌设计,其中剥落风险不可忽略,承认使用统一的剥落表示和二维平面应变模型。
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引用次数: 0
Groundwater inflow into tunnels: semi-empirical methods for estimating steady state inflow associated with excavation induced drawdown 隧道的地下水流入:估计开挖诱导下降的稳态流入的半经验方法
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.107430
Simone L. Markus, Mark S. Diederichs
Estimation of groundwater inflow is essential for tunnel design and construction; however, analytical solutions used in current engineering practice have limited applicability, especially in cases where drawdown of the water table occurs due to excavation associated drainage. Existing methods for estimating steady state groundwater inflow under a drawn-down water table require improvement, as they typically assume fixed water table boundaries. This article unites and compares classical inflow formulations and reviews their applicability and limitations. Based on numerical modelling, the study proposes two novel methods for estimating inflow into tunnels based on drawdown: one for inflow into shallow tunnels where full drawdown of the water table occurs (trench-like inflow), and one for inflow into moderately deep tunnels, where partial drawdown of the water table occurs. The inflow-drawdown relationship devised accounts for the influence of tunnel size and depth on drawdown shape, and is independent of assumptions of boundary conditions, which limit applicability of other equations. Additionally, practical guidance for numerical modelling of tunnels below the water table is provided, including sensitivity analysis of boundary conditions.
地下水位估算是隧道设计和施工的重要内容。然而,目前工程实践中使用的解析解的适用性有限,特别是在由于开挖相关排水而导致地下水位下降的情况下。现有的在下降的地下水位下估计稳态地下水流入的方法需要改进,因为它们通常假设固定的地下水位边界。本文对经典的流入公式进行了统一和比较,并对其适用性和局限性进行了评述。在数值模拟的基础上,本研究提出了两种基于水位下降估算隧道入流的新方法:一种用于水位完全下降的浅埋隧道入流(沟槽式入流),另一种用于水位部分下降的中深埋隧道入流。所设计的流降关系考虑了隧道尺寸和深度对流降形状的影响,并且不依赖于限制其他方程适用性的边界条件假设。此外,本文还为地下隧道的数值模拟提供了实用的指导,包括边界条件的敏感性分析。
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引用次数: 0
Installation timing and deformation prediction of multi-layer supporting structures for deep-buried and soft-rock tunnels under high geo-stress 高地应力下深埋软岩隧道多层支护结构安装时机及变形预测
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107487
Zihan Zhou , Bingyan Wang , Wei Meng , Keping Zhang , Ziquan Chen , Yuanfu Zhou , Yuanming Lai
Multi-layer supporting structures have excellent flexibility in dynamically regulating the stress release of surrounding rock. Therefore, accurately determining the installation timing and combination scheme is of great significance for preventing and controlling severe large squeezing deformation. To systematically sort out the principles for determining the installation timing, the evolution law of mechanical mechanism of the double-layer primary supports in Maoxian tunnel was analyzed. A theoretical analytical method for determining installation timing was proposed by combining the viscoelastic-plastic creep constitutive model, which considers the damage tensor of layered rock mass, with the elastoplastic model during the construction influence period and the failure model of the supporting structure. Based on the continuity requirement of deformation under a multi-layer supporting system, an artificial intelligence algorithm was used to establish a multi-level deformation prediction model, assisting in determining the installation timing. The results indicated that for continuous medium surrounding rock and large squeezing deformation, the concept of flexible support followed by strong support and appropriately delaying the installation timing, can significantly reduce the surrounding rock pressure. By adopting the above concept, the maximum surrounding rock pressure of Maoxian tunnel can be reduced from 950.7 kPa to 665.9 kPa. The applicability of the proposed theoretical analysis method and multi-level deformation prediction model was verified through engineering examples. The maximum analytical solution error of the average surrounding rock pressure in Maoxian tunnel was only 41.2 kPa, while the average deformation prediction error was only 8.3%.
多层支护结构在动态调节围岩应力释放方面具有良好的灵活性。因此,准确确定安装时机和组合方案,对于预防和控制严重的大挤压变形具有重要意义。为系统梳理安装时机的确定原则,对茂县隧道双层主支护的受力机理演化规律进行了分析。将考虑层状岩体损伤张量的粘弹塑性蠕变本构模型与施工影响期弹塑性模型和支护结构破坏模型相结合,提出了一种确定安装时间的理论分析方法。基于多层支护系统下变形的连续性要求,采用人工智能算法建立多层变形预测模型,辅助确定安装时机。结果表明,对于连续介质围岩,挤压变形较大的情况下,采用柔性支护先强后强的支护理念,适当推迟安装时间,可以显著降低围岩压力。采用上述概念,茂县隧道最大围岩压力可由950.7 kPa降至665.9 kPa。通过工程实例验证了所提出的理论分析方法和多级变形预测模型的适用性。茂县隧道平均围岩压力最大解析解误差仅为41.2 kPa,平均变形预测误差仅为8.3%。
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引用次数: 0
Plastic-hardening constitutive model-based hybrid machine learning framework for three-dimensional tunnel deformation prediction 基于塑性硬化本构模型的隧道三维变形预测混合机器学习框架
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.107415
Siyu Yin , Zheng Yang , Kunpeng Cao , Ben Wu , Siau Chen Chian
Accurately predicting tunnel deformation induced by excavation is critical for ensuring urban underground safety and optimizing reinforcement schemes. This study proposes a hybrid machine-learning framework that integrates particle swarm optimization (PSO), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). A large-scale database is generated through finite-difference analyses using a Plastic-Hardening (PH) soil model encompassing 242 excavation scenarios and 29,282 monitoring points that cover diverse excavation-tunnel configurations. The proposed PSO-CNN-XGBoost hybrid model demonstrates high predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.96, RMSE = 0.91 mm, MAE = 0.63 mm), outperforming standalone CNN and XGBoost models. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis identifies dimensionless parameters (ΔH/H, D/B, and Y/L) as the dominant geometric drivers and quantifies interaction thresholds that are valuable for design control. A closed-form predictive expression derived via symbolic regression enables rapid screening of tunnel deformation zones. The proposed framework offers an efficient solution for point-level assessment of excavation-induced tunnel deformation, supporting low-disturbance development of underground space.
准确预测开挖引起的隧道变形对保证城市地下安全、优化加固方案至关重要。本研究提出了一种混合机器学习框架,该框架集成了粒子群优化(PSO)、卷积神经网络(CNN)和极端梯度增强(XGBoost)。通过使用塑性硬化(PH)土壤模型进行有限差分分析,生成了一个大型数据库,该数据库包含242个开挖场景和29,282个监测点,涵盖了不同的开挖隧道配置。提出的PSO-CNN-XGBoost混合模型具有较高的预测精度(R2 = 0.96, RMSE = 0.91 mm, MAE = 0.63 mm),优于独立的CNN和XGBoost模型。Shapley加性解释(SHAP)分析将无量纲参数(ΔH/H, D/B和Y/L)确定为主要的几何驱动因素,并量化对设计控制有价值的交互阈值。通过符号回归导出的封闭形式预测表达式可以快速筛选隧道变形区。该框架为隧道开挖变形的点水平评价提供了有效的解决方案,支持地下空间的低扰动开发。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of inclined groove on rock-crushing behavior of TBM cutter 斜槽对TBM刀具破岩性能的影响
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.107404
Xuhui Zhang , Zeren Peng , Hanwen Lai , Shenghui Kang , Yashi Liao , Yimin Xia
To investigate the impact of groove angle on rock-crushing behavior of a TBM cutter, the finite element method was employed to simulate both rock cutting and rock-crushing processes. Then, the average vertical load, average rolling load, and specific energy required for rock-crushing by TBM cutter were calculated and analyzed under varying groove angles and groove spacings. Furthermore, some rock-crushing tests were performed to show the cutter’s crushing behavior regarding the groove angle and groove spacing. The study’s results indicate that the effectiveness of crack propagation to the groove is influenced by the groove angle and groove spacing. Specifically, for the given groove angle, when the groove spacing remains at a low value, the cracks produced can effectively extend to grooves. However, when the groove spacing surpasses a certain threshold, the cracks fail to sufficiently reach the grooves. This threshold is referred to as the critical groove spacing, which varies with different groove angles. Notably, as the groove angle increases, the critical groove spacing also tends to increase. Furthermore, when the two cutting grooves can facilitate rock crushing, a rise from 0° to 60° in the groove angle results in a decrease in both the cutter’s vertical load and rolling load. Additionally, the specific energy initially falls and then rises with the growth of the groove angle. An optimal groove spacing that minimizes the specific energy exists for a certain groove angle. In particular, the optimal groove spacings at groove angles of 0°, 15°, 30°, 45°, and 60° are 70 mm, 70 mm, 80 mm, 80 mm, and 90 mm, respectively. Notably, when the grooves with different groove angles and groove spacings can provide an auxiliary crushing effect, the crushing load of the cutter is minimized at a groove angle of 60°, while the specific energy of the cutter reaches its lowest point at a groove angle of 30°.
为了研究槽角对TBM刀具破岩性能的影响,采用有限元方法模拟了切削和破岩过程。然后,计算分析了不同槽角和槽距条件下TBM刀破碎岩石所需的平均垂直载荷、平均滚动载荷和比能。此外,还进行了一些岩石破碎试验,以显示切割器在槽角和槽距方面的破碎行为。研究结果表明,裂纹扩展到沟槽的有效性受沟槽角度和沟槽间距的影响。在沟槽角度一定的情况下,当沟槽间距保持在一定值时,裂纹能够有效地扩展到沟槽中。然而,当沟槽间距超过一定阈值时,裂纹不能充分到达沟槽。这个阈值称为临界槽距,它随槽角的不同而变化。值得注意的是,随着槽角的增大,临界槽距也有增大的趋势。当两个切槽有利于破碎岩石时,当切槽角度从0°增大到60°时,切刀的垂直载荷和滚动载荷均减小。随着槽角的增大,比能呈先下降后上升的趋势。在一定的槽角下,存在比能量最小的最佳槽距。其中,槽角为0°、15°、30°、45°和60°时的最佳槽间距分别为70 mm、70 mm、80 mm、80 mm和90 mm。值得注意的是,当不同凹槽角度和凹槽间距的凹槽能够提供辅助破碎作用时,刀具的破碎载荷在凹槽角度为60°时最小,而刀具的比能在凹槽角度为30°时达到最低点。
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引用次数: 0
Transferable prediction of TBM long-distance tunneling construction duration considering uncertainties in surrounding rock distribution and the evolution of tunneling efficiency 考虑围岩分布不确定性和掘进效率演化的TBM长距离隧道施工工期可转移预测
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2026.107446
Jianming Zhang , Kebin Shi , Peixuan Lin , Lei Li , Qiyong Mao , Haibo Jiang , Xinjun Yan , Jingwei Gong
During the construction planning phase, accurately predicting the construction duration of long-distance tunnels built using Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM) is critical for optimizing construction organization and controlling costs. However, the uncertainty of geological conditions and the variability of tunneling efficiency pose challenges in making precise predictions during the planning phase. To address this issue, this study proposes a Monte Carlo model based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), incorporating the uncertainties in surrounding rock distribution and the evolution of tunneling efficiency. The prediction process is divided into two core stages. The first stage involves integrating borehole data and surrounding rock information obtained from preliminary geological surveys. Using a Markov chain corrected by Bayes’ formula, the uncertainty in geological spatial characteristics is continuously deduced. In the second stage, we first propose a tunneling efficiency decay factor (e) and couple it with the uncertainty in the surrounding rock distribution to establish simulation rules for the construction duration of long-distance TBM tunnels. Subsequently, the Monte Carlo method under LHS sampling is applied for the duration simulation. Finally, two targeted model transfer strategies are proposed to enhance the model’s applicability across different projects. The effectiveness of the proposed method was validated using the Xinjiang KS super‑long tunnel as a case study. The results demonstrated: (1) After considering the spatial distribution uncertainty of geological conditions and parameter e, the proposed model accurately forecasted the construction duration of long‑distance TBM tunneling, and the average prediction error was less than 4 days. Moreover, the model outperformed existing approaches in accuracy and robustness, and exhibited excellent stability and lower computational resource requirements. (2) Global sensitivity analysis indicated that uncertainty in surrounding rock distribution was the primary driver of duration fluctuations, and the proposed model effectively reduced the impact of this uncertainty on construction duration. Dynamic sensitivity further showed that as the excavation distance increased (beyond 6700 m), the sensitivity index of e reached 0.25–0.40, which significantly impacted construction duration. Furthermore, introducing e reduced the prediction error range by 76.47 %–95.83 %. (3) The proposed model exhibited good transferability, and the effectiveness of both model transfer strategies was demonstrated on the new project. This approach provides a valuable reference for predicting construction durations of long-distance TBM tunneling projects in complex geological conditions.
在施工规划阶段,准确预测隧道掘进机施工工期是优化施工组织和控制成本的关键。然而,地质条件的不确定性和隧道掘进效率的可变性给规划阶段的精确预测带来了挑战。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种基于拉丁超立方采样(LHS)的蒙特卡罗模型,该模型考虑了围岩分布的不确定性和掘进效率的演化。预测过程分为两个核心阶段。第一阶段包括综合钻孔数据和从初步地质调查中获得的围岩信息。利用经贝叶斯修正的马尔可夫链,连续推导出地质空间特征的不确定性。在第二阶段,我们首先提出了隧道效率衰减因子(e),并将其与围岩分布的不确定性相结合,建立了长距离TBM隧道施工工期的模拟规则。随后,采用LHS采样下的蒙特卡罗方法进行持续时间模拟。最后,提出了两种有针对性的模型迁移策略,以增强模型在不同项目中的适用性。以新疆KS超长隧道为例,验证了该方法的有效性。结果表明:(1)在考虑了地质条件和参数e的空间分布不确定性后,所建模型能较准确地预测长距离TBM隧道施工工期,平均预测误差小于4天。此外,该模型在精度和鲁棒性方面优于现有方法,具有优异的稳定性和较低的计算资源需求。(2)全局敏感性分析表明,围岩分布的不确定性是工期波动的主要驱动因素,该模型有效降低了这种不确定性对工期的影响。动态敏感性进一步表明,随着开挖距离的增加(超过6700 m), e的敏感性指数达到0.25 ~ 0.40,对施工工期影响显著。引入e后,预测误差范围减小了76.47% ~ 95.83%。(3)模型具有良好的可转移性,两种模型转移策略的有效性在新项目上得到了验证。该方法为复杂地质条件下长距离隧道掘进机工程工期预测提供了有价值的参考。
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引用次数: 0
Study on the characteristics of recirculating smoke flow in dead-end tunnel fire based on full-scale experiments 基于全尺寸实验的死角隧道火灾循环烟气流动特性研究
IF 7.4 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.tust.2025.107396
Shunyu Yue , Le Wu , Zejian Lu , Pingyu Zhang , Peng Hu , Junxian Xie , Maohua Zhong
With the acceleration of the construction of underground space engineering in China, the number of single-ended tunnels in the construction process has increased year by year. In order to study the smoke spread characteristics in a single-ended tunnel formed during the construction phase of a long distance tunnel, a full-scale field experiment was carried out in the construction section of Shengli Tunnel in Tianshan Mountain. By analyzing the overall temperature distribution, wind speed distribution, smoke layer height and other parameters, combined with field observation, the law of smoke diffusion and settlement in the single-ended tunnel was studied. The temperature prediction models of different diffusion directions are given. The results show that:(1) Under natural ventilation conditions, the diffusion velocity of flue gas towards the closed end is slower than that towards the connected end, and the temperature of flue gas in the connected end is faster than that at the closed end. (2) At the connected end of the ceiling, the maximum flue gas temperature distribution basically conforms to the classical exponential decay model. (3) While at the closed end, the flue gas temperature distribution can be regarded as the superposition of the two parts of the flue gas flow due to the phenomenon of recirculating flue gas flow.
随着中国地下空间工程建设的加快,施工过程中的单端隧道数量逐年增加。为研究长距离隧道施工阶段形成的单端隧道烟气扩散特性,在天山胜利隧道施工段进行了全尺寸现场试验。通过分析整体温度分布、风速分布、烟层高度等参数,结合现场观测,研究了单端隧道烟气扩散沉降规律。给出了不同扩散方向下的温度预测模型。结果表明:(1)在自然通风条件下,烟气向封闭端扩散速度慢于向连通端扩散速度,连通端烟气温度上升快于向封闭端扩散速度。(2)吊顶连接端最大烟气温度分布基本符合经典指数衰减模型。(3)而在封闭端,由于烟气流的再循环现象,烟气温度分布可视为两部分烟气流的叠加。
{"title":"Study on the characteristics of recirculating smoke flow in dead-end tunnel fire based on full-scale experiments","authors":"Shunyu Yue ,&nbsp;Le Wu ,&nbsp;Zejian Lu ,&nbsp;Pingyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Peng Hu ,&nbsp;Junxian Xie ,&nbsp;Maohua Zhong","doi":"10.1016/j.tust.2025.107396","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.tust.2025.107396","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>With the acceleration of the construction of underground space engineering in China, the number of single-ended tunnels in the construction process has increased year by year. In order to study the smoke spread characteristics in a single-ended tunnel formed during the construction phase of a long distance tunnel, a full-scale field experiment was carried out in the construction section of Shengli Tunnel in Tianshan Mountain. By analyzing the overall temperature distribution, wind speed distribution, smoke layer height and other parameters, combined with field observation, the law of smoke diffusion and settlement in the single-ended tunnel was studied. The temperature prediction models of different diffusion directions are given. The results show that:(1) Under natural ventilation conditions, the diffusion velocity of flue gas towards the closed end is slower than that towards the connected end, and the temperature of flue gas in the connected end is faster than that at the closed end. (2) At the connected end of the ceiling, the maximum flue gas temperature distribution basically conforms to the classical exponential decay model. (3) While at the closed end, the flue gas temperature distribution can be regarded as the superposition of the two parts of the flue gas flow due to the phenomenon of recirculating flue gas flow.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":49414,"journal":{"name":"Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107396"},"PeriodicalIF":7.4,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146033343","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology
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