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Who Consents to Sharing Their Tweets With Researchers? A Comparative Analysis of Selection Bias in Linked Survey and Social Media Data 谁同意与研究人员分享他们的推文?关联调查与社交媒体数据中选择偏差的比较分析
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261421114
Conor Gaughan, Alexandru Cernat, Rachel Gibson, Marta Cantijoch, Riza Batista-Navarro
Survey research is entering a new era which centres on its linkage with other forms of digitally generated data such as social media. Many suggest that this can help to address existing weaknesses in self-report surveys such as non-response and measurement bias. However, to link a participant’s survey responses to their social media data, consent from the participant is required. Previous studies have shown that consent to linkage is typically low and selective. This paper expands on the existing literature by comparing Twitter (now X) usage and consent to survey linkage across five national contexts. Testing the effects of several sociodemographic and attitudinal predictors in the US, the UK, France, Germany and Poland, our study finds that overall consent rates vary significantly by age, political attention, privacy concern, trust in social media companies and frequency of political posting on Twitter/X. However, our results also confirm that variable effects differ significantly between nations, suggesting a moderating cultural influence. Within-country variation in the US between 2020 and 2024 is also present, indicating that effects are not necessarily fixed over time. These findings dictate the need for caution when conducting substantive comparisons across countries and time when using social media data.
调查研究正在进入一个以与其他形式的数字生成数据(如社交媒体)联系为中心的新时代。许多人认为,这有助于解决自我报告调查中存在的弱点,如无反应和测量偏差。然而,要将参与者的调查回答与他们的社交媒体数据联系起来,需要参与者的同意。先前的研究表明,对联系的同意通常是低的和选择性的。本文通过比较Twitter(现在X)的使用和同意来扩展现有文献,以调查跨五个国家背景的联系。我们在美国、英国、法国、德国和波兰测试了几种社会人口学和态度预测因素的影响,发现总体同意率因年龄、政治关注度、隐私担忧、对社交媒体公司的信任以及在Twitter/X上发布政治帖子的频率而有显著差异。然而,我们的研究结果也证实,不同国家之间的变量效应差异很大,这表明文化影响具有调节作用。美国2020年至2024年间的国内差异也存在,这表明影响并不一定会随着时间的推移而固定。这些发现表明,在使用社交媒体数据进行跨国家和时间的实质性比较时,需要谨慎。
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引用次数: 0
New Media, Meme Culture and Political Satire: The Role of Performative Art in Political Activism in Kenya 新媒体、模因文化与政治讽刺:表演艺术在肯尼亚政治行动主义中的角色
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261419776
Paul Muya, Tabitha Onyinge
This study examines the impact of performatives and evolving social media typology in shaping political activism among Kenya’s Generation Z (Gen Z) movement during the 2024 anti-tax law protests. The study addresses the questions of the role of performatives and how social media has revolutionised their production, reproduction, and consumption in political activism in Kenya. Based on qualitative content analysis and critical discourse analysis, the study employed purposive sampling of a collection of digital artefacts, including memes, protest songs, TikTok videos, graffiti-inspired art, and Twitter threads, which were drawn from the #RejectFinanceBill2024 campaign. Analytical categories were derived from literature on performative activism, postcolonial media theory, and digital political communication. The findings suggest that Kenya’s Gen Z activists adopted a highly performative mode of social media resistance, blending entertainment with activism. The content of performatives was found to function not only as expressive tools but also as mechanisms for mobilising support, challenging state narratives, and asserting digital visibility. Social media was found to circumvent traditional media gatekeeping, amplifying the voices of the marginalised, and fostering an enlightened political culture. The study identifies a cyclic loop of production and reproduction of performatives, reinforcing African people’s communal identity formation and resistance posturing. Findings highlight how Gen Z’s social media use is reshaping civic engagement in the postcolonial public sphere. The study advances theoretical understanding of how visual and performative content is democratising political discourse, disrupting power hierarchies, and deepening participatory governance in the Global South. This study contributes to the body of literature on digital media and political communication by illuminating the intersection of social movement, culture, aesthetics, and performativities in resistance. These insights are particularly relevant for scholars and practitioners interested in digital media use, activism, political communication, and youth-led social movements.
本研究考察了在2024年反税法抗议活动期间,肯尼亚Z世代(Gen Z)运动中,行为体和不断发展的社交媒体类型在塑造政治行动主义方面的影响。该研究探讨了述为语的作用,以及社交媒体如何在肯尼亚政治活动中彻底改变述为语的生产、再生产和消费。在定性内容分析和批判性话语分析的基础上,该研究对一系列数字文物进行了有目的的抽样,包括表情包、抗议歌曲、抖音视频、涂鸦艺术和推特帖子,这些数字文物来自#RejectFinanceBill2024运动。分析范畴来源于有关行为行动主义、后殖民媒体理论和数字政治传播的文献。调查结果表明,肯尼亚的Z世代活动家采用了一种高度表演的社交媒体抵制模式,将娱乐与行动主义相结合。研究发现,述为语的内容不仅可以作为表达工具,还可以作为动员支持、挑战国家叙事和维护数字可见性的机制。研究发现,社交媒体绕过了传统媒体的把关,放大了边缘化群体的声音,并培育了一种开明的政治文化。该研究确定了表演性的生产和再生产的循环,加强了非洲人民的公共身份形成和抵抗姿态。调查结果突显了Z世代对社交媒体的使用如何重塑了后殖民公共领域的公民参与。该研究促进了对视觉和表演内容如何使政治话语民主化、破坏权力等级和深化全球南方参与性治理的理论理解。这项研究通过阐明社会运动、文化、美学和抵抗行为的交集,为数字媒体和政治传播的文献体系做出了贡献。这些见解特别适用于对数字媒体使用、激进主义、政治传播和青年领导的社会运动感兴趣的学者和实践者。
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引用次数: 0
States of Abortion Talk: Social Media Responses to Threats and Opportunities Post-Dobbs 堕胎的状态:社会媒体对威胁和机会的反应
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261421115
Nafisa Nowshin, Kelsy Kretschmer, Glencora Borradaile
The Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision in June 2022 reversed 50 years of precedent by allowing states to formulate their own abortion policies. This resetting of abortion policy created a new raft of opportunities and threats across the states for both pro-life and pro-choice supporters. In this study, we aim to analyze how public discourse around abortion responded to this changed political context. Using a dataset of 288,325 abortion-related Tweets posted in 2022, we examine public reaction to Dobbs using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. We categorize Tweets by abortion stance (pro-choice and pro-life ) and geo-political context by state groups ( protected, restricted, and unsettled based on abortion access policy). Our temporal analysis shows that while both pro-choice and pro-life Twitter activity spiked after both the leaked draft in May 2022 and the final decision, only pro-choice discussions maintained a heightened level of engagement over time. Analyzing the discussion frames among the Tweets reveals that pro-choice users emphasized a wider range of arguments that varied by state context, while pro-life Tweets were generally unresponsive to state context. Our findings indicate that the new threats and opportunities had uneven effects within pro-life and pro-choice public discourse.
2022年6月,最高法院对多布斯诉杰克逊妇女健康组织案的裁决推翻了50年来的先例,允许各州制定自己的堕胎政策。堕胎政策的重新调整给各州的反堕胎和反堕胎支持者带来了新的机遇和威胁。在这项研究中,我们旨在分析围绕堕胎的公共话语如何回应这种变化的政治背景。使用2022年发布的288,325条与堕胎相关的推文数据集,我们使用定量和定性方法检查了公众对多布斯的反应。我们根据堕胎立场(支持堕胎和反对堕胎)和国家团体的地缘政治背景(根据堕胎准入政策受到保护、限制和不稳定)对推文进行分类。我们的时间分析显示,尽管在2022年5月泄露的草案和最终决定之后,支持堕胎和反对堕胎的推特活动都激增,但随着时间的推移,只有支持堕胎的讨论保持了更高的参与度。分析推文中的讨论框架可以发现,支持堕胎的用户强调的论点范围更广,因州背景而异,而支持堕胎的推文通常对州背景没有反应。我们的研究结果表明,新的威胁和机会在支持堕胎和支持堕胎的公共话语中具有不均衡的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Dynamics of Hate Speech: Assessing Anti-Muslim Hate Speech in Norwegian Social Media 仇恨言论的动态:评估挪威社交媒体上的反穆斯林仇恨言论
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261417730
Yuri Kasahara, Daniel Thilo Schroeder, Anis Yazidi, Pedro G. Lind
This study investigates the dynamics of anti-Muslim hate speech within Norwegian social media during the period between 2010 and 2021. Using a dataset of more than one million comments from Twitter and Facebook, we developed a custom hate speech classifier trained on an annotated corpus of 3,277 comments in Norwegian language. We identify that despite representing a small share of the total comments, hate speech content has increased over time. In an effort to understand the social network characteristics of hate speech content, we delve deeper into Twitter conversations as we can more easily identify how this content is spread. We develop network metrics to assess the prevalence, distribution, and diffusion of hateful content. The findings reveal that regardless of the number of users or tweets in a conversation, the volume of hateful content tends to remain constant. Furthermore, a small fraction of users contribute disproportionately to the dissemination of hate speech, with most conversations being limited in participant diversity. These results contribute to the growing field of computational social science by offering a novel methodology for studying hate speech in under-resourced languages and suggesting that mitigating hate speech may be possible through targeted network interventions rather than content removal alone.
本研究调查了2010年至2021年期间挪威社交媒体上反穆斯林仇恨言论的动态。使用来自Twitter和Facebook的100多万条评论的数据集,我们开发了一个定制的仇恨言论分类器,该分类器是在挪威语的3277条注释语料库上训练的。我们发现,尽管仇恨言论只占评论总数的一小部分,但随着时间的推移,仇恨言论的内容有所增加。为了了解仇恨言论内容的社交网络特征,我们对Twitter对话进行了更深入的研究,因为我们可以更容易地识别这些内容是如何传播的。我们开发网络指标来评估仇恨内容的流行、分布和扩散。研究结果显示,无论对话中的用户数量或推文数量如何,仇恨内容的数量往往保持不变。此外,一小部分用户不成比例地助长了仇恨言论的传播,大多数对话在参与者多样性方面受到限制。这些结果为研究资源不足语言中的仇恨言论提供了一种新的方法,并表明可以通过有针对性的网络干预而不是仅仅删除内容来减轻仇恨言论,从而促进了计算社会科学领域的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Platform Politics in the U.S. Congress: Diffusion of TikTok and Threads 美国国会的平台政治:TikTok和线程的扩散
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261421118
Terri L. Towner, Caroline Muñoz
This study investigates which members of the 118th U.S. Congress adopt and use Threads and TikTok, and what political, demographic, and constituency-level characteristics explain this variation. Grounded in diffusion of innovation theory, we ask: What factors predict the adoption and use of these emerging platforms? We compiled original data on all members of Congress ( N = 535) by collecting social media account information from official congressional websites and manually verifying platform presence. Adoption was measured as a binary variable, and usage as the number of posts made through November 2023. Using probit and OLS regression models, we tested predictors including party affiliation, age, race, leadership status, and prior digital engagement. The empirical analyses reveal that Democrats and younger legislators are more likely to adopt Threads and TikTok. Prior digital engagement consistently predicts usage on both platforms. Notably, racial identity plays a critical role: non-white members are more likely to adopt and use TikTok, while white members are more likely to use Threads. This study offers the first empirical analysis of congressional adoption and usage of Threads and TikTok. Our findings demonstrate that platform choice is shaped by identity, institutional context, and political strategy. These findings offer new insights into the determinants of early platform adoption among U.S. congress members and the importance of aligning communication choices with constituent behavior and platform culture.
本研究调查了美国第118届国会的哪些议员采用和使用Threads和TikTok,以及哪些政治、人口和选区层面的特征解释了这种差异。在创新扩散理论的基础上,我们的问题是:哪些因素预测了这些新兴平台的采用和使用?我们通过从国会官方网站收集社交媒体账户信息并手动验证平台存在性,收集了所有国会议员(N = 535)的原始数据。采用率是一个二元变量,使用率是截至2023年11月的帖子数量。使用probit和OLS回归模型,我们测试了预测因素,包括党派关系、年龄、种族、领导地位和之前的数字参与。实证分析显示,民主党人和年轻议员更有可能采用Threads和TikTok。之前的数字粘性能够预测两个平台的使用情况。值得注意的是,种族认同起着至关重要的作用:非白人会员更有可能接受和使用TikTok,而白人会员更有可能使用Threads。这项研究首次对国会对Threads和TikTok的采用和使用进行了实证分析。我们的研究结果表明,平台选择受身份、制度背景和政治策略的影响。这些发现为美国国会议员早期采用平台的决定因素以及将沟通选择与选民行为和平台文化相结合的重要性提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Conspiracy or Public Service? Does Facebook’s Third-Party Fact-Checking Increase Conspiracy Beliefs Among Americans? 阴谋还是公共服务?Facebook的第三方事实核查是否增加了美国人的阴谋论?
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261421119
Justin Bonest Phillips, Timothy B. Gravelle, Andrea Carson, Mathew D. Marques
Unlike past studies that examine whether fact-checking can counter conspiratorial belief, we reverse the lens to investigate if fact-checking itself prompts conspiracy belief. Our study occurs in the days immediately preceding the 2024 US election. Shortly thereafter, Meta’s CEO Mark Zuckerberg abandoned Facebook’s third-party program altogether, arguing fact-checkers “have destroyed more trust than they have created.” We provide timely insight into fact-checking concerns using a preregistered online survey-based experiment of US Facebook users’ ( n = 2,409), randomly assigned to view either a generic Facebook fact-check (treatment) or a Facebook login screen. Results show no overall effects of third-party fact-checking on users’ propensity for conspiratorial beliefs. However, when individuals with high conspiracy mentality and strong conservative identification encounter a fact-check, they are more likely to endorse Facebook-related conspiracy beliefs. We also observe a three-way interaction among political independents with high and low conspiracy beliefs, where fact-checking potentially triggers or reduces such beliefs.
与过去研究事实核查是否可以对抗阴谋论信仰的研究不同,我们将镜头反过来调查事实核查本身是否会引发阴谋论信仰。我们的研究发生在2024年美国大选的前几天。此后不久,Meta的首席执行官马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)完全放弃了Facebook的第三方项目,认为事实核查“破坏的信任比创造的信任更多”。我们通过对美国Facebook用户(n = 2409)进行预先注册的在线调查实验,及时洞察事实核查问题,这些用户被随机分配观看一般的Facebook事实核查(治疗)或Facebook登录屏幕。结果显示,第三方事实核查对用户阴谋论倾向没有总体影响。然而,当具有高度阴谋心理和强烈保守认同的个体遇到事实核查时,他们更有可能支持与facebook相关的阴谋信念。我们还观察到,具有高阴谋信念和低阴谋信念的政治独立人士之间存在三方互动,其中事实核查可能会触发或减少这种信念。
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引用次数: 0
Harnessing Big Data, Hindered by Bias: Evaluating TikTok Research API for Fair and Optimal Social Sciences 利用受偏见阻碍的大数据:为公平和最佳的社会科学评估TikTok研究API
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1177/08944393251413277
Dan Bai, Yan Gu
Digital platforms now serve as crucial archives for analysing societal trends, yet their research APIs pose methodological challenges. This study critically evaluates TikTok Research API through comparative analysis of 6,373 videos from 14 creators in the United States and United Kingdom (2020–2022), contrasting API-derived outputs with manual collection and third-party analytics. The API demonstrated scalability, retrieving more videos than alternative methods and providing 22 variables, including eight unavailable elsewhere. However, limitations were substantial: transcriptions covered about 10% of the content, with more transcripts returned from American male creators. Engagement metrics exhibited inconsistent accuracy across data sources, with the API showing systematically lower view counts but higher comment and share counts compared to manual collection. The number of videos varied depending on sample composition, indicating that small changes in inclusion criteria could shift outcomes disproportionately. These results highlight systematic inconsistencies, showing why multi-method approaches remain necessary despite automation. While TikTok Research API offers valuable scale and ethical compliance, its demographic biases and metadata inconsistencies compromise validity. The study advocates integrated auditing protocols and targeted API refinements to improve representativeness and accuracy in platform-based research.
数字平台现在是分析社会趋势的重要档案,但它们的研究api带来了方法论上的挑战。本研究通过对美国和英国(2020-2022年)14位创作者的6373个视频进行对比分析,将API衍生的输出与人工收集和第三方分析进行了对比,批判性地评估了TikTok Research API。该API展示了可扩展性,比其他方法检索更多的视频,并提供22个变量,其中包括8个在其他地方不可用的变量。然而,限制是巨大的:转录覆盖了大约10%的内容,更多的转录来自美国男性创作者。用户粘性指标在不同数据源中呈现出不一致的准确性,与手动收集相比,API显示出较低的浏览次数,但较高的评论和分享次数。视频的数量因样本组成而异,这表明纳入标准的微小变化可能不成比例地改变结果。这些结果突出了系统的不一致性,显示了为什么尽管自动化仍然需要多方法方法。虽然抖音研究API提供了有价值的规模和道德合规,但它的人口统计偏见和元数据不一致损害了有效性。本研究提倡整合审计协议和有针对性的API改进,以提高基于平台的研究的代表性和准确性。
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引用次数: 0
Procedural Rhetorics Meet Platform Affordances: An Exploration of Community Rhetoric on Reddit 程序修辞学与平台支持:Reddit社区修辞学探析
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261419793
Mariacristina Sciannamblo, Enrico Gandolfi
This article investigates the rhetorical dynamics emerging within Reddit communities, focusing on discussions surrounding the video game franchise The Last of Us . Building on the concept of procedural rhetoric, the paper suggests framing the collective articulation of meaning that emerges from the interaction between digital affordances—such as upvoting, moderation, and subreddit structures—and community practices in terms of “community rhetoric.” Drawing from a thematic analysis of posts and comments in two dedicated subreddits, the article identifies how content, attitude, and discursive climate shape participatory discourse. This framework is enriched by considering Reddit’s distinctive technical configurations, including pseudonymity and community self-governance, which foster specific discursive cultures. Rather than presenting Reddit as a neutral container, the study highlights how its infrastructural features actively mediate rhetorical production and sense-making. The paper contributes to digital rhetoric and media studies by offering a model that integrates platform affordances with user-driven cultural practices, showing how community engagement shapes knowledge, authority, and cultural narratives in online spaces. Limitations and future directions are discussed in light of applying the framework to other media fandoms and social platforms.
本文将调查Reddit社区中出现的修辞动态,重点关注围绕电子游戏《最后生还者》的讨论。基于程序修辞学的概念,本文建议将“社区修辞学”定义为“社区修辞学”,即从数字支持(如投票、审核和subreddit结构)与社区实践之间的互动中产生的意义的集体表达。通过对两个专用子reddit上的帖子和评论进行专题分析,本文确定了内容、态度和话语气候如何塑造参与性话语。考虑到Reddit独特的技术配置,包括假名和社区自治,这些都促进了特定的话语文化,这一框架得到了丰富。该研究并没有将Reddit视为一个中立的容器,而是强调了其基础结构特征如何积极地调节修辞的产生和意义的构建。本文提供了一个模型,将平台支持与用户驱动的文化实践相结合,展示了社区参与如何在网络空间中塑造知识、权威和文化叙事,从而为数字修辞和媒体研究做出了贡献。结合将该框架应用于其他媒体领域和社交平台的情况,讨论了其局限性和未来发展方向。
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引用次数: 0
Global Gender Inequality Through Explainable AI: Machine Learning, Clustering, and SHAP Insights 通过可解释的人工智能分析全球性别不平等:机器学习、聚类和SHAP见解
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261419809
Sadullah Çelik, Cemile Zehra Köroğlu
Objective: This paper analyzes gender equality across countries in the year 2024 by using the GGGI, with the intention of disentangling the unseen structural and non-deterministic patterns. Instead of repeating the process of calculating the index, it is openly recognizing the compositional feature of the GGGI and the unseen similarities between the indices. Methods: This research employs a global cross-sectional study of 146 countries over the four primary GGGI sectors: economic participation, education, health and survival, and empowerment. Where OLS is only employed as a diagnostic test, as its almost perfect fit (R 2 ∼1) is squarely mechanical and lacks relevance for inference. Apart from ensemble models employed for predictions, K-means clustering, SHAP analysis, and GridSearchCV optimization are also used. Findings: The out-of-sample predictions demonstrate high levels of predictive accuracy, with Gradient Boosting models yielding an R 2 of approximately 0.90 and an RMSE of approximately 0.045, indicating that there is significant nonlinear information beyond index aggregation. Unsupervised clustering techniques show that there are seven distinct country clusters that go beyond traditional geographic and income divisions, which can be identified with more than 93% accuracy. The SHAP results show that empowerment and economic participation are drivers, while there is insignificant variation in healthcare. Contribution: This study identifies the boundaries of regression analysis in index research, as well as the advantages of machine learning analysis in determining structural patterns related to gender equity.
目的:本文利用全球性别平等指数分析2024年各国的性别平等状况,旨在解开看不见的结构性和非确定性模式。它不再重复计算指数的过程,而是公开承认GGGI的构成特征以及指数之间看不见的相似性。方法:本研究对146个国家的四个主要GGGI部门进行了全球横断面研究:经济参与、教育、健康和生存以及赋权。其中OLS仅用作诊断测试,因为其几乎完美的拟合(r2 ~ 1)完全是机械的,与推理缺乏相关性。除了用于预测的集成模型外,还使用K-means聚类、SHAP分析和GridSearchCV优化。研究结果:样本外预测显示出高水平的预测精度,梯度增强模型的r2约为0.90,RMSE约为0.045,表明在指数聚集之外存在显著的非线性信息。无监督聚类技术表明,有七个不同的国家集群超越了传统的地理和收入划分,其识别准确率超过93%。SHAP结果显示,赋权和经济参与是驱动因素,而医疗保健方面的差异不显著。贡献:本研究明确了回归分析在指数研究中的界限,以及机器学习分析在确定与性别平等相关的结构模式方面的优势。
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引用次数: 0
From Search to Separation: Digital Behavioral Decoupling and the Predictive Power of Google Trends for Divorce Outcomes Across Four Western Nations 从搜索到分离:数字行为脱钩和谷歌趋势对四个西方国家离婚结果的预测能力
IF 4.1 2区 社会学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1177/08944393261419796
Emre Can Kuran, Umut Kuran
Digital search platforms enable real-time observation of relationship distress through behavioral traces. This study tests whether Google Trends predicts official divorce rates in the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom from 2009 to 2023. We introduce Digital Behavioral Decoupling, in which online distress signals diverge from legal outcomes as divorce shifts from an institutional procedure to an emotionally mediated digital phenomenon. Methods include unit root tests, cointegration analysis, Granger causality, spectral coherence, and rolling-origin nowcasting. Search queries are grouped into pre-divorce (cognitive distress), during-divorce (procedural action), and post-divorce (emotional recovery) phases. Results show 62.5% of terms lead divorce rates by 1–2 years, yet only 8.3% remain significant after False Discovery Rate correction. The Netherlands demonstrates 100% forecast improvements beyond autoregressive models (DM 2.87–3.43, p < 0.02) across all search terms, from early relationship therapy queries through procedural and post-divorce searches, indicating systematic capture of the entire divorce pathway. Germany shows intermediate results with 33% forecast success beyond autoregressive benchmarks (DM 2.40–2.81) limited to problem-recognition terms, suggesting episodic crisis-driven engagement. The United States and United Kingdom show no forecast gains beyond autoregressive models despite high search volumes, consistent with information saturation in normalized divorce cultures. Lead-lag relationships are frequency-specific, concentrated at 3–5 year periodicities. Findings link family sociology with affective computing and provide a replicable toolkit for tracking relationship dissolution in algorithmically curated information environments.
数字搜索平台可以通过行为痕迹实时观察人际关系的困扰。这项研究测试谷歌Trends是否预测了美国、德国、荷兰和英国从2009年到2023年的官方离婚率。我们介绍了数字行为脱钩,其中,随着离婚从一种制度程序转变为一种情感介导的数字现象,网上的痛苦信号与法律结果不同。方法包括单位根检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果关系、谱相干性和滚动起源临近预测。搜索查询分为离婚前(认知痛苦)、离婚中(程序行动)和离婚后(情绪恢复)三个阶段。结果显示,62.5%的条款导致离婚1-2年,但只有8.3%的条款在错误发现率修正后仍然重要。从早期的关系治疗查询到程序和离婚后的搜索,荷兰证明了100%的预测改进,超越了自回归模型(DM 2.87-3.43, p < 0.02),表明系统地捕获了整个离婚途径。德国表现出了中等水平的结果,在自回归基准(DM 2.40-2.81)之外,预测成功率为33%,这一指标仅限于问题识别方面,表明了偶发性危机驱动的参与。尽管搜索量很高,但美国和英国没有显示出超出自回归模型的预测收益,这与规范化离婚文化中的信息饱和一致。超前-滞后关系是频率特异性的,集中在3-5年的周期。研究结果将家庭社会学与情感计算联系起来,并提供了一个可复制的工具包,用于在算法策划的信息环境中跟踪关系的解散。
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