Lifetime Data Analysis最新文献

Accurate risk prediction has been the central goal in many studies of survival outcomes. In the presence of multiple risk factors, a censored regression model can be employed to estimate a risk prediction rule. Before the prediction tool can be popularized for practical use, it is crucial to rigorously assess its prediction performance. In our motivating example, researchers are interested in developing and validating a risk prediction tool to identify future lung cancer cases by integrating demographic information, disease characteristics and smoking-related data. Considering the long latency period of cancer, it is desirable for a prediction tool to achieve discriminative performance that does not weaken over time. We propose estimation and inferential procedures to comprehensively assess both the overall predictive discrimination and the temporal pattern of an estimated prediction rule. The proposed methods readily accommodate commonly used censored regression models, including the Cox proportional hazards model and the accelerated failure time model. The estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal, and reliable variance estimators are also developed. The proposed methods offer an informative tool for inferring time-dependent predictive discrimination, as well as for comparing the discrimination performance between candidate models. Applications of the proposed methods demonstrate enduring performance of the risk prediction tool in the PLCO study and detected decaying performance in a study of liver disease.

A generalized case-cohort design has been used when measuring exposures is expensive and events are not rare in the full cohort. This design collects expensive exposure information from a (stratified) randomly selected subset from the full cohort, called the subcohort, and a fraction of cases outside the subcohort. For the full cohort study with competing risks, He et al. (Scand J Stat 43:103-122, 2016) studied the non-stratified proportional subdistribution hazards model with covariate-dependent censoring to directly evaluate covariate effects on the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we propose a stratified proportional subdistribution hazards model with covariate-adjusted censoring weights for competing risks data under the generalized case-cohort design. We consider a general class of weight functions to account for the generalized case-cohort design. Then, we derive the optimal weight function which minimizes the asymptotic variance of parameter estimates within the general class of weight functions. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The simulation studies show (i) the proposed estimator with covariate-adjusted weight is unbiased when the censoring distribution depends on covariates; and (ii) the proposed estimator with the optimal weight function gains parameter estimation efficiency. We apply the proposed method to stem cell transplantation and diabetes data sets.

Missing covariates are commonly encountered when evaluating covariate effects on survival outcomes. Excluding missing data from the analysis may lead to biased parameter estimation and a misleading conclusion. The inverse probability weighting method is widely used to handle missing covariates. However, obtaining asymptotic variance in frequentist inference is complicated because it involves estimating parameters for propensity scores. In this paper, we propose a new approach based on an approximate Bayesian method without using Taylor expansion to handle missing covariates for survival data. We consider a stratified proportional hazards model so that it can be used for the non-proportional hazards structure. Two cases for missing pattern are studied: a single missing pattern and multiple missing patterns. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, which matches the frequentist asymptotic properties. Simulation studies show that our proposed estimators are asymptotically unbiased and the credible region obtained from posterior distribution is close to the frequentist confidence interval. The algorithm is straightforward and computationally efficient. We apply the proposed method to a stem cell transplantation data set.

Additive hazards model is often used to complement the proportional hazards model in the analysis of failure time data. Statistical inference of additive hazards model with time-dependent longitudinal covariates requires the availability of the whole trajectory of the longitudinal process, which is not realistic in practice. The commonly used last value carried forward approach for intermittently observed longitudinal covariates can induce biased parameter estimation. The more principled joint modeling of the longitudinal process and failure time data imposes strong modeling assumptions, which is difficult to verify. In this paper, we propose methods that weigh the distance between the observational time of longitudinal covariates and the failure time, resulting in unbiased regression coefficient estimation. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators. Simulation studies provide numerical support for the theoretical findings. Data from an Alzheimer's study illustrate the practical utility of the methodology.

Survival modeling with time-varying coefficients has proven useful in analyzing time-to-event data with one or more distinct failure types. When studying the cause-specific etiology of breast and prostate cancers using the large-scale data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, we encountered two major challenges that existing methods for estimating time-varying coefficients cannot tackle. First, these methods, dependent on expanding the original data in a repeated measurement format, result in formidable time and memory consumption as the sample size escalates to over one million. In this case, even a well-configured workstation cannot accommodate their implementations. Second, when the large-scale data under analysis include binary predictors with near-zero variance (e.g., only 0.6% of patients in our SEER prostate cancer data had tumors regional to the lymph nodes), existing methods suffer from numerical instability due to ill-conditioned second-order information. The estimation accuracy deteriorates further with multiple competing risks. To address these issues, we propose a proximal Newton algorithm with a shared-memory parallelization scheme and tests of significance and nonproportionality for the time-varying effects. A simulation study shows that our scalable approach reduces the time and memory costs by orders of magnitude and enjoys improved estimation accuracy compared with alternative approaches. Applications to the SEER cancer data demonstrate the real-world performance of the proximal Newton algorithm.

Many medical conditions are marked by a sequence of events in association with continuous changes in biomarkers. Few works have evaluated the overall accuracy of a biomarker in predicting disease progression. We thus extend the concept of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface and the volume under the surface (VUS) from multi-category outcomes to ordinal competing-risk outcomes that are also subject to noninformative censoring. Two VUS estimators are considered. One is based on the definition of the ROC surface and obtained by integrating the estimated ROC surface. The other is an inverse probability weighted U estimator that is built upon the equivalence of the VUS to the concordance probability between the marker and sequential outcomes. Both estimators have nice asymptotic results that can be derived using counting process techniques and U-statistics theory. We illustrate their good practical performances through simulations and applications to two studies of cognition and a transplant dataset.

Proportional hazards frailty models have been extensively investigated and used to analyze clustered and recurrent failure times data. However, the proportional hazards assumption in the models may not always hold in practice. In this paper, we propose an additive hazards frailty model with semi-varying coefficients, which allows some covariate effects to be time-invariant while other covariate effects to be time-varying. The time-varying and time-invariant regression coefficients are estimated by a set of estimating equations, whereas the frailty parameter is estimated by the moment method. The large sample properties of the proposed estimators are established. The finite sample performance of the estimators is examined by simulation studies. The proposed model and estimation are illustrated with an analysis of data from a rehospitalization study of colorectal cancer patients.