As the aging of the world accelerates, clarifying the relationship between cultural differences and ageism is an urgent issue. Therefore, in this study, we conducted a correlation analysis between the six cultural scales of Hofstede et al. [1] and the 10 ageism scales calculated from data on 35,232 people from 31 countries included in the World Values Survey Wave 6 by Inglehart et al. [2]. The results of a partial correlation analysis controlling for economic and demographic factors showed that the cultural scales were correlated with ageism. This is the first study to show that diverse cultural scales are related to multiple dimensions of ageism.
{"title":"Relationships between six cultural scales and ten ageism dimensions: Correlation analysis using data from 31 countries","authors":"Keisuke Kokubun","doi":"arxiv-2408.04781","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04781","url":null,"abstract":"As the aging of the world accelerates, clarifying the relationship between\u0000cultural differences and ageism is an urgent issue. Therefore, in this study,\u0000we conducted a correlation analysis between the six cultural scales of Hofstede\u0000et al. [1] and the 10 ageism scales calculated from data on 35,232 people from\u000031 countries included in the World Values Survey Wave 6 by Inglehart et al.\u0000[2]. The results of a partial correlation analysis controlling for economic and\u0000demographic factors showed that the cultural scales were correlated with\u0000ageism. This is the first study to show that diverse cultural scales are\u0000related to multiple dimensions of ageism.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the digital era, where innovative technologies like blockchain are revolutionizing traditional organizational paradigms, Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) emerge as avant-garde models of collective governance. However, their unique structure challenges existing legal frameworks, especially concerning the liability of participants. This study focuses on analyzing the legal implications of the decentralized nature of DAOs, with a particular emphasis on the aspects of participant liability. Such considerations are essential for understanding how current legal systems might be adapted or reformed to effectively address these novel challenges. The paper examines the specificity of DAOs, highlighting their decentralized governance structure and reliance on smart contracts, which introduce unique issues related to the blurring of liability boundaries. It underscores how the anonymity of DAO participants and the automatic execution of smart contracts complicate the traditional concept of legal liability, both within the DAO context and in interactions with external parties. The analysis also includes a comparison between DAOs and traditional organizational forms, such as corporations and associations, to identify potential analogies and differences in participant liability. It explores how existing regulations on partner liability might be insufficient or inapplicable in the DAO context, prompting the search for new, innovative legal solutions.
在数字时代，区块链等创新技术正在彻底改变传统的组织范式，去中心化自治组织（DAOs）作为前卫的集体治理模式应运而生。然而，其独特的结构对现有的法律框架提出了挑战，尤其是在参与者的责任方面。本研究的重点是分析 DAO 去中心化性质的法律影响，特别强调参与者责任方面。这些考虑对于理解如何调整或改革现行法律制度以有效应对这些新挑战至关重要。本文研究了 DAO 的特殊性，强调了其去中心化治理结构和对智能合约的依赖，这带来了与责任边界模糊有关的独特问题。它强调了 DAO 参与者的匿名性和智能合约的自动执行如何在 DAO 范畴内以及在与外部各方的互动中使传统的法律责任概念复杂化。分析还包括对 DAO 和传统组织形式（如公司和协会）进行比较，以确定参与者责任方面的潜在类比和差异。它探讨了现有的合伙人责任法规如何可能在 DAO 环境中不充分或不适用，从而促使人们寻找新的、创新的法律解决方案。
{"title":"Redefining Accountability: Navigating Legal Challenges of Participant Liability in Decentralized Autonomous Organizations","authors":"Aneta Napieralska, Przemysław Kępczyński","doi":"arxiv-2408.04717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04717","url":null,"abstract":"In the digital era, where innovative technologies like blockchain are\u0000revolutionizing traditional organizational paradigms, Decentralized Autonomous\u0000Organizations (DAOs) emerge as avant-garde models of collective governance.\u0000However, their unique structure challenges existing legal frameworks,\u0000especially concerning the liability of participants. This study focuses on\u0000analyzing the legal implications of the decentralized nature of DAOs, with a\u0000particular emphasis on the aspects of participant liability. Such\u0000considerations are essential for understanding how current legal systems might\u0000be adapted or reformed to effectively address these novel challenges. The paper examines the specificity of DAOs, highlighting their decentralized\u0000governance structure and reliance on smart contracts, which introduce unique\u0000issues related to the blurring of liability boundaries. It underscores how the\u0000anonymity of DAO participants and the automatic execution of smart contracts\u0000complicate the traditional concept of legal liability, both within the DAO\u0000context and in interactions with external parties. The analysis also includes a comparison between DAOs and traditional\u0000organizational forms, such as corporations and associations, to identify\u0000potential analogies and differences in participant liability. It explores how\u0000existing regulations on partner liability might be insufficient or inapplicable\u0000in the DAO context, prompting the search for new, innovative legal solutions.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The diffusion of novel information through social networks is essential for dismantling echo chambers and promoting innovation. Our study examines how two major types of viral channels, specifically Direct Messaging (DM) and Broadcasting (BC), impact the well-known "strength of weak ties" in disseminating novel information across social networks. We conducted a large-scale empirical analysis, examining the sharing behavior of 500,000 users over a two-month period on a major social media platform. Our results suggest a greater capacity for DM to transmit novel information compared to BC, although DM typically involves stronger ties. Furthermore, the "strength of weak ties" is only evident in BC, not in DM where weaker ties do not transmit significantly more novel information. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the content selection by both senders and recipients, contingent on tie strength, contributes to the observed differences between these two channels. These findings expand both our understanding of contemporary weak tie theory and our knowledge of how to disseminate novel information in social networks.
通过社交网络传播新信息对于消除回音室和促进创新至关重要。我们的研究探讨了两种主要的病毒式传播渠道，特别是直接消息（DM）和广播（BC），是如何影响众所周知的 "弱关系强度 "在社交网络中传播新信息的。我们进行了大规模的实证分析，研究了一个主要社交媒体平台上 50 万用户在两个月内的分享行为。我们的结果表明，与 BC 相比，DM 传播新信息的能力更强，尽管 DM 通常涉及更强的联系。此外，"弱关系的力量 "只在 BC 中明显，而在 DM 中并不明显，因为在 DM 中，弱关系传递的新信息并没有显著增加。我们的机制分析表明，发送者和接收者根据纽带强度对内容的选择导致了这两种渠道之间的差异。这些发现拓展了我们对当代弱纽带理论的理解，也拓展了我们对如何在社交网络中传播新信息的认识。
{"title":"\"The Strength of Weak Ties\" Varies Across Viral Channels","authors":"Shan Huang, Yuan Yuan, Yi Ji","doi":"arxiv-2408.03579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03579","url":null,"abstract":"The diffusion of novel information through social networks is essential for\u0000dismantling echo chambers and promoting innovation. Our study examines how two\u0000major types of viral channels, specifically Direct Messaging (DM) and\u0000Broadcasting (BC), impact the well-known \"strength of weak ties\" in\u0000disseminating novel information across social networks. We conducted a\u0000large-scale empirical analysis, examining the sharing behavior of 500,000 users\u0000over a two-month period on a major social media platform. Our results suggest a\u0000greater capacity for DM to transmit novel information compared to BC, although\u0000DM typically involves stronger ties. Furthermore, the \"strength of weak ties\"\u0000is only evident in BC, not in DM where weaker ties do not transmit\u0000significantly more novel information. Our mechanism analysis indicates that the\u0000content selection by both senders and recipients, contingent on tie strength,\u0000contributes to the observed differences between these two channels. These\u0000findings expand both our understanding of contemporary weak tie theory and our\u0000knowledge of how to disseminate novel information in social networks.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943482","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adam Graham-Squire, Matthew I. Jones, David McCune
In real-world elections where voters cast preference ballots, voters often provide only a partial ranking of the candidates. Despite this empirical reality, prior social choice literature frequently analyzes fairness criteria under the assumption that all voters provide a complete ranking of the candidates. We introduce new fairness criteria for multiwinner ranked-choice elections concerning truncated ballots. In particular, we define notions of the independence of losing voters blocs and independence of winning voters blocs, which state that the winning committee of an election should not change when we remove partial ballots which rank only losing candidates, and the winning committee should change in reasonable ways when removing ballots which rank only winning candidates. Of the voting methods we analyze, the Chamberlin-Courant rule performs the best with respect to these criteria, the expanding approvals rule performs the worst, and the method of single transferable vote falls in between.
{"title":"New fairness criteria for truncated ballots in multi-winner ranked-choice elections","authors":"Adam Graham-Squire, Matthew I. Jones, David McCune","doi":"arxiv-2408.03926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03926","url":null,"abstract":"In real-world elections where voters cast preference ballots, voters often\u0000provide only a partial ranking of the candidates. Despite this empirical\u0000reality, prior social choice literature frequently analyzes fairness criteria\u0000under the assumption that all voters provide a complete ranking of the\u0000candidates. We introduce new fairness criteria for multiwinner ranked-choice\u0000elections concerning truncated ballots. In particular, we define notions of the\u0000independence of losing voters blocs and independence of winning voters blocs,\u0000which state that the winning committee of an election should not change when we\u0000remove partial ballots which rank only losing candidates, and the winning\u0000committee should change in reasonable ways when removing ballots which rank\u0000only winning candidates. Of the voting methods we analyze, the\u0000Chamberlin-Courant rule performs the best with respect to these criteria, the\u0000expanding approvals rule performs the worst, and the method of single\u0000transferable vote falls in between.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943479","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper evaluates the impact of the German minimum wage policy on firms' financial leverage. By using a comprehensive firm-establishment-employee linked dataset and a difference-in-differences estimation with firm-level variation in treatment intensity, the analysis shows that the average minimum wage level reduces firms' financial leverage by about 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points, corresponding to 1 to 2 percent of the mean of financial leverage. Further investigation of the mechanism shows that the minimum wage does not lead to significant capital-labor substitution; therefore, the labor share increases. Firms react to the increased labor share by deleveraging. The results suggest that while the minimum wage benefits workers by allocating more earnings to the labor force, it also introduces greater operating risks and encourages conservative financial behavior among firms.
{"title":"Firms' Risk Adjustments to Minimum Wage: Financial Leverage and Labor Share Trade-off","authors":"Ying Liang","doi":"arxiv-2408.03659","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03659","url":null,"abstract":"This paper evaluates the impact of the German minimum wage policy on firms'\u0000financial leverage. By using a comprehensive firm-establishment-employee linked\u0000dataset and a difference-in-differences estimation with firm-level variation in\u0000treatment intensity, the analysis shows that the average minimum wage level\u0000reduces firms' financial leverage by about 0.5 to 0.9 percentage points,\u0000corresponding to 1 to 2 percent of the mean of financial leverage. Further\u0000investigation of the mechanism shows that the minimum wage does not lead to\u0000significant capital-labor substitution; therefore, the labor share increases.\u0000Firms react to the increased labor share by deleveraging. The results suggest\u0000that while the minimum wage benefits workers by allocating more earnings to the\u0000labor force, it also introduces greater operating risks and encourages\u0000conservative financial behavior among firms.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christoph Czichowsky, Martin Herdegen, David Martins
We revisit the classical topic of quadratic and linear mean-variance equilibria with both financial and real assets. The novelty of our results is that they are the first allowing for equilibrium prices driven by general semimartingales and hold in discrete as well as continuous time. For agents with quadratic utility functions, we provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibria. We complement our analysis by providing explicit examples showing non-uniqueness or non-existence of equilibria. We then study the more difficult case of linear mean-variance preferences. We first show that under mild assumptions, a linear mean-variance equilibrium corresponds to a quadratic equilibrium (for different preference parameters). We then use this link to study a fixed-point problem that establishes existence (and uniqueness in a suitable class) of linear mean-variance equilibria. Our results rely on fine properties of dynamic mean-variance hedging in general semimartingale markets.
{"title":"Existence and uniqueness of quadratic and linear mean-variance equilibria in general semimartingale markets","authors":"Christoph Czichowsky, Martin Herdegen, David Martins","doi":"arxiv-2408.03134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.03134","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit the classical topic of quadratic and linear mean-variance\u0000equilibria with both financial and real assets. The novelty of our results is\u0000that they are the first allowing for equilibrium prices driven by general\u0000semimartingales and hold in discrete as well as continuous time. For agents\u0000with quadratic utility functions, we provide necessary and sufficient\u0000conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibria. We complement our\u0000analysis by providing explicit examples showing non-uniqueness or non-existence\u0000of equilibria. We then study the more difficult case of linear mean-variance\u0000preferences. We first show that under mild assumptions, a linear mean-variance\u0000equilibrium corresponds to a quadratic equilibrium (for different preference\u0000parameters). We then use this link to study a fixed-point problem that\u0000establishes existence (and uniqueness in a suitable class) of linear\u0000mean-variance equilibria. Our results rely on fine properties of dynamic\u0000mean-variance hedging in general semimartingale markets.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"62 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We propose an impossible trinity of human space usage between home, workplace, and amenity in this paper to explain mobility pattern changes and shifts in demand for space during COVID-19. We developed detailed time usage and location visit profiles for 60,131 people in England and Wales by analyzing about 120 million cell phone location and timestamp records from March 2020 and 2021. We found that both at-home time and amenity visits increased during COVID-19, while workplace visits decreased. Individual visits to different locations are determined by three key factors: individual preference measured by pre-pandemic location visit frequency, time constraints influenced by work-from-home, and space accessibility. We also find that WFH improves equality of individual amenity usage between people of different incomes. Low-income and middle-income people saw an 8% and 4% increase in additional amenity visits, respectively, compared to high-income people during the pandemic.
{"title":"The Impossible Trinity of Human Space Usage between Home, Workplace and Amenity","authors":"Shizhen Wang, Stanimira Milcheva","doi":"arxiv-2408.02942","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.02942","url":null,"abstract":"We propose an impossible trinity of human space usage between home,\u0000workplace, and amenity in this paper to explain mobility pattern changes and\u0000shifts in demand for space during COVID-19. We developed detailed time usage\u0000and location visit profiles for 60,131 people in England and Wales by analyzing\u0000about 120 million cell phone location and timestamp records from March 2020 and\u00002021. We found that both at-home time and amenity visits increased during\u0000COVID-19, while workplace visits decreased. Individual visits to different\u0000locations are determined by three key factors: individual preference measured\u0000by pre-pandemic location visit frequency, time constraints influenced by\u0000work-from-home, and space accessibility. We also find that WFH improves\u0000equality of individual amenity usage between people of different incomes.\u0000Low-income and middle-income people saw an 8% and 4% increase in additional\u0000amenity visits, respectively, compared to high-income people during the\u0000pandemic.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943481","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this work, we propose a model to quantify the impact of the climate transition on a property in housing market. We begin by noting that property is an asset in an economy. That economy is organized in sectors, driven by its productivity which is a multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while the climate transition is declined thanks to the carbon price, a continuous deterministic process. We then extend the sales comparison approach and the income approach to valuate an energy inefficient real estate asset. We obtain its value as the difference between the price of an equivalent efficient building following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck as well as the actualized renovation costs and the actualized sum of the future additional energy costs. These costs are due to the inefficiency of the building, before an optimal renovation date which depends on the carbon price process. Finally, we carry out simulations based on the French economy and the house price index of France. Our results allow to conclude that the order of magnitude of the depreciation obtained by our model is the same as the empirical observations.
{"title":"Modeling the impact of Climate transition on real estate prices","authors":"Lionel Sopgoui","doi":"arxiv-2408.02339","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.02339","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we propose a model to quantify the impact of the climate\u0000transition on a property in housing market. We begin by noting that property is\u0000an asset in an economy. That economy is organized in sectors, driven by its\u0000productivity which is a multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, while the\u0000climate transition is declined thanks to the carbon price, a continuous\u0000deterministic process. We then extend the sales comparison approach and the\u0000income approach to valuate an energy inefficient real estate asset. We obtain\u0000its value as the difference between the price of an equivalent efficient\u0000building following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck as well as the actualized\u0000renovation costs and the actualized sum of the future additional energy costs.\u0000These costs are due to the inefficiency of the building, before an optimal\u0000renovation date which depends on the carbon price process. Finally, we carry\u0000out simulations based on the French economy and the house price index of\u0000France. Our results allow to conclude that the order of magnitude of the\u0000depreciation obtained by our model is the same as the empirical observations.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the effectiveness of the ``low-carbon economy'' expenditures from European Structural and Investment Funds in fostering reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within European regions, focusing on the 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 programme periods. By decomposing emissions time series into trend and cycle components and considering them within a panel data framework, our research highlights that the impacts of low-carbon economy expenditures vary, qualitatively and quantitatively, with the targeted regions' development level. We find significant emissions reductions in developed and transition regions yet less favourable outcomes in less developed areas. Further analysis into specific greenhouse gas emissions types (CO$_2$, CH$_4$, and N$_2$O) reveals inconsistent impacts, underscoring the complexity of achieving emissions reductions. Our findings emphasise the need for tailored environmental strategies that accommodate the economic disparities of regions in the European Union.
{"title":"Are EU low-carbon structural funds efficient in reducing emissions?","authors":"Marco Dueñas, Antoine Mandel","doi":"arxiv-2408.01782","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.01782","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the effectiveness of the ``low-carbon economy''\u0000expenditures from European Structural and Investment Funds in fostering\u0000reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within European regions, focusing on the\u00002007-2013 and 2014-2020 programme periods. By decomposing emissions time series\u0000into trend and cycle components and considering them within a panel data\u0000framework, our research highlights that the impacts of low-carbon economy\u0000expenditures vary, qualitatively and quantitatively, with the targeted regions'\u0000development level. We find significant emissions reductions in developed and\u0000transition regions yet less favourable outcomes in less developed areas.\u0000Further analysis into specific greenhouse gas emissions types (CO$_2$, CH$_4$,\u0000and N$_2$O) reveals inconsistent impacts, underscoring the complexity of\u0000achieving emissions reductions. Our findings emphasise the need for tailored\u0000environmental strategies that accommodate the economic disparities of regions\u0000in the European Union.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider the randomness of values and volumes of market deals as a major factor that describes lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of the forecasts of macroeconomic variables, prices, and returns. We introduce random macroeconomic variables, whose average values coincide with usual macroeconomic variables, and describe their uncertainty by coefficients of variation that depend on the volatilities, correlations, and coefficients of variation of random values or volumes of trades. The same approach describes bounds of uncertainty and limits on the accuracy of forecasts for growth rates, inflation, interest rates, etc. Limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables depend on the certainty of predictions of their probabilities. The number of predicted statistical moments determines the veracity of macroeconomic probability. To quantify macroeconomic 2nd statistical moments, one needs additional econometric methodologies, data, and calculations of variables determined as sums of squares of values or volumes of market trades. Forecasting of macroeconomic 2nd statistical moments requires 2nd order economic theories. All of that is absent and for many years to come, the accuracy of forecasts of the probabilities of random macroeconomic variables, prices, and returns will be limited by the Gaussian approximations, which are determined by the first two statistical moments.
{"title":"Lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the accuracy of forecasts of macroeconomic variables","authors":"Victor Olkhov","doi":"arxiv-2408.04644","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2408.04644","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the randomness of values and volumes of market deals as a major\u0000factor that describes lower bounds of uncertainty and upper limits on the\u0000accuracy of the forecasts of macroeconomic variables, prices, and returns. We\u0000introduce random macroeconomic variables, whose average values coincide with\u0000usual macroeconomic variables, and describe their uncertainty by coefficients\u0000of variation that depend on the volatilities, correlations, and coefficients of\u0000variation of random values or volumes of trades. The same approach describes\u0000bounds of uncertainty and limits on the accuracy of forecasts for growth rates,\u0000inflation, interest rates, etc. Limits on the accuracy of forecasts of\u0000macroeconomic variables depend on the certainty of predictions of their\u0000probabilities. The number of predicted statistical moments determines the\u0000veracity of macroeconomic probability. To quantify macroeconomic 2nd\u0000statistical moments, one needs additional econometric methodologies, data, and\u0000calculations of variables determined as sums of squares of values or volumes of\u0000market trades. Forecasting of macroeconomic 2nd statistical moments requires\u00002nd order economic theories. All of that is absent and for many years to come,\u0000the accuracy of forecasts of the probabilities of random macroeconomic\u0000variables, prices, and returns will be limited by the Gaussian approximations,\u0000which are determined by the first two statistical moments.","PeriodicalId":501273,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - ECON - General Economics","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141943267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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