Journal of Machine Learning Research最新文献

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on fine-tuning pre-trained neural network models, and fail to provide crucial uncertainty quantification. We develop a statistical framework for model predictions based on transfer learning, called RECaST. The primary mechanism is a Cauchy random effect that recalibrates a source model to a target population; we mathematically and empirically demonstrate the validity of our RECaST approach for transfer learning between linear models, in the sense that prediction sets will achieve their nominal stated coverage, and we numerically illustrate the method's robustness to asymptotic approximations for nonlinear models. Whereas many existing techniques are built on particular source models, RECaST is agnostic to the choice of source model, and does not require access to source data. For example, our RECaST transfer learning approach can be applied to a continuous or discrete data model with linear or logistic regression, deep neural network architectures, etc. Furthermore, RECaST provides uncertainty quantification for predictions, which is mostly absent in the literature. We examine our method's performance in a simulation study and in an application to real hospital data.

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges due to unmeasured confounders that hinder the identification of causal relationships. The proposed approach addresses this issue by developing two peeling algorithms (bottom-up and top-down) to ascertain causal relationships and valid instruments. This approach first reconstructs a super-graph to represent ancestral relationships between variables, using a peeling algorithm based on nodewise GLM regressions that exploit relationships between primary and instrumental variables. Then, it estimates parent-child effects from the ancestral relationships using another peeling algorithm while deconfounding a child's model with information borrowed from its parents' models. The article offers a theoretical analysis of the proposed approach, establishing conditions for model identifiability and providing statistical guarantees for accurately discovering parent-child relationships via the peeling algorithms. Furthermore, the article presents numerical experiments showcasing the effectiveness of our approach in comparison to state-of-the-art structure learning methods without confounders. Lastly, it demonstrates an application to Alzheimer's disease (AD), highlighting the method's utility in constructing gene-to-gene and gene-to-disease regulatory networks involving Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) for healthy and AD subjects.

We consider the problem of clustering grouped data with possibly non-exchangeable groups whose dependencies can be characterized by a known directed acyclic graph. To allow the sharing of clusters among the non-exchangeable groups, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach, termed graphical Dirichlet process, that jointly models the dependent group-specific random measures by assuming each random measure to be distributed as a Dirichlet process whose concentration parameter and base probability measure depend on those of its parent groups. The resulting joint stochastic process respects the Markov property of the directed acyclic graph that links the groups. We characterize the graphical Dirichlet process using a novel hypergraph representation as well as the stick-breaking representation, the restaurant-type representation, and the representation as a limit of a finite mixture model. We develop an efficient posterior inference algorithm and illustrate our model with simulations and a real grouped single-cell data set.

The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm is a powerful and flexible tool for complex optimization problems of the form $min\left\{f\right(x)+g(y):Ax+By=c\}$ . ADMM exhibits robust empirical performance across a range of challenging settings including nonsmoothness and nonconvexity of the objective functions $f$ and $g$ , and provides a simple and natural approach to the inverse problem of image reconstruction for computed tomography (CT) imaging. From the theoretical point of view, existing results for convergence in the nonconvex setting generally assume smoothness in at least one of the component functions in the objective. In this work, our new theoretical results provide convergence guarantees under a restricted strong convexity assumption without requiring smoothness or differentiability, while still allowing differentiable terms to be treated approximately if needed. We validate these theoretical results empirically, with a simulated example where both $f$ and $g$ are nondifferentiable-and thus outside the scope of existing theory-as well as a simulated CT image reconstruction problem.

Black-box variational inference (BBVI) now sees widespread use in machine learning and statistics as a fast yet flexible alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, stochastic optimization methods for BBVI remain unreliable and require substantial expertise and hand-tuning to apply effectively. In this paper, we propose robust and automated black-box VI (RABVI), a framework for improving the reliability of BBVI optimization. RABVI is based on rigorously justified automation techniques, includes just a small number of intuitive tuning parameters, and detects inaccurate estimates of the optimal variational approximation. RABVI adaptively decreases the learning rate by detecting convergence of the fixed-learning-rate iterates, then estimates the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the current variational approximation and the optimal one. It also employs a novel optimization termination criterion that enables the user to balance desired accuracy against computational cost by comparing (i) the predicted relative decrease in the symmetrized KL divergence if a smaller learning were used and (ii) the predicted computation required to converge with the smaller learning rate. We validate the robustness and accuracy of RABVI through carefully designed simulation studies and on a diverse set of real-world model and data examples.

Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs) aim at tailoring individualized sequential treatment rules that maximize cumulative beneficial outcomes by accommodating patients' heterogeneity in decision-making. For many chronic diseases including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), treatments are usually multifaceted in the sense that aggressive treatments with a higher expected reward are also likely to elevate the risk of acute adverse events. In this paper, we propose a new weighted learning framework, namely benefit-risk dynamic treatment regimens (BR-DTRs), to address the benefit-risk trade-off. The new framework relies on a backward learning procedure by restricting the induced risk of the treatment rule to be no larger than a pre-specified risk constraint at each treatment stage. Computationally, the estimated treatment rule solves a weighted support vector machine problem with a modified smooth constraint. Theoretically, we show that the proposed DTRs are Fisher consistent, and we further obtain the convergence rates for both the value and risk functions. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is demonstrated via extensive simulation studies and application to a real study for T2D patients.

Discount regularization, using a shorter planning horizon when calculating the optimal policy, is a popular choice to avoid overfitting when faced with sparse or noisy data. It is commonly interpreted as de-emphasizing or ignoring delayed effects. In this paper, we prove two alternative views of discount regularization that expose unintended consequences and motivate novel regularization methods. In model-based RL, planning under a lower discount factor acts like a prior with stronger regularization on state-action pairs with more transition data. This leads to poor performance when the transition matrix is estimated from data sets with uneven amounts of data across state-action pairs. In model-free RL, discount regularization equates to planning using a weighted average Bellman update, where the agent plans as if the values of all state-action pairs are closer than implied by the data. Our equivalence theorems motivate simple methods that generalize discount regularization by setting parameters locally for individual state-action pairs rather than globally. We demonstrate the failures of discount regularization and how we remedy them using our state-action-specific methods across empirical examples with both tabular and continuous state spaces.