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Digital twinning of river basins towards full-scale, sustainable and equitable water management and disaster mitigation 实现流域数字化配对,实现全面、可持续和公平的水资源管理和减灾
Pub Date : 2024-12-13 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00047-2
Yifan Yang, Chen Xie, Ziwu Fan, Zhonghou Xu, Bruce W. Melville, Guoqing Liu, Lei Hong
Digital twins are transforming the paradigm of water management and water hazard mitigation globally, facilitating more effective governance. However, comprehensive digitalisation at the basin scale still faces major challenges in data, modelling, policy incentives, and, most critically, widespread inequity. This article outlines a framework for building widely applicable digital-twin basins and addressing the main obstacles. Ensuring high-quality water data requires more comprehensive and well-controlled data aggregation and provision protocols. Significant improvements to the existing data infrastructure are necessary to support this effort. Most existing water models are not effectively integrated and do not include multi-physics to reflect all essential correlated physical processes at the basin scale. The current advancement in physics-informed data-driven approaches may provide a solution. Furthermore, global initiatives are critical to reducing major inequity in less developed regions, particularly the Global South, during digitalisation. It is imperative that researchers, practitioners and policymakers take decisive actions to prioritise research and allocate resources to foster transboundary collaborations towards integrated and extensive digital-twin basin systems, promoting the sustainability and resilience of global water resources.
数字孪生正在改变全球水管理和减轻水危害的模式,促进更有效的治理。然而,流域范围内的全面数字化仍然面临着数据、建模、政策激励以及最关键的普遍不平等方面的重大挑战。本文概述了建立广泛适用的数字孪生盆地和解决主要障碍的框架。确保高质量的水数据需要更全面和控制良好的数据汇总和提供协议。为了支持这项工作,需要对现有数据基础设施进行重大改进。大多数现有的水模型没有有效地整合,也没有包括多物理场来反映流域尺度上所有重要的相关物理过程。目前,基于物理的数据驱动方法的进步可能会提供一个解决方案。此外,全球倡议对于减少欠发达地区,特别是全球南方国家在数字化过程中的重大不平等至关重要。研究人员、实践者和政策制定者必须采取果断行动,优先考虑研究和分配资源,以促进跨界合作,实现综合和广泛的数字双流域系统,促进全球水资源的可持续性和复原力。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial segmentation of Jiali Fault’s Holocene activity in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau 青藏高原东南部嘉里断裂全新世活动的空间分割
Pub Date : 2024-12-12 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00038-3
Shijie Liu, Hengxing Lan, Alexander Strom, Langping Li, Han Bao
Jiali Fault plays a key role in the dextral fault system in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Although it forms a striking topographic lineament the Yigong and Parlung Rivers, evidence for faulting in the Holocene has been equivocal. In this study, Holocene sediment deformation caused by the Jiali Fault was discovered in the debris flow fan near the Guxiang barrier lake. A palaeo-earthquake event that occurred between 3494 and 2865 cal B.P. was revealed, as evidenced by geological, seismic, and radiocarbon dating investigations. On the basis of a compilation of dating results, the middle segment of the Jiali Fault was proposed to belong to a Holocene active fault. This was attributed to the strong influence of the continued north eastwards compression of the Indian Plate and the clockwise rotation of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. These findings provide new insights into the tectonic implications and earthquake activity of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.
嘉里断裂在青藏高原东南部的右旋断裂体系中起着关键作用。虽然它形成了引人注目的一公河和帕龙河地形,但全新世断裂的证据一直模棱两可。本研究在谷乡堰塞湖附近的泥石流扇中发现了由嘉里断裂引起的全新世沉积变形。通过地质、地震和放射性碳测年,揭示了发生在3494 ~ 2865 cal B.P.之间的古地震事件。综合各测年资料,认为嘉里断裂中段属于全新世活动断裂。这归因于印度板块持续的北东挤压和喜马拉雅东部辐合的顺时针旋转的强烈影响。这些发现为青藏高原东南部的构造意义和地震活动提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
A rapid run-out assessment methodology for the 2024 Wayanad debris flow 2024年Wayanad泥石流的快速运行评估方法
Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00044-5
V. K. Krishnapriya, A. Rajaneesh, K. S. Sajinkumar, Thomas Oommen, Ali P. Yunus, Nikhil Nedumpallile Vasu, R. B. Binoj Kumar, S. Adarsh
The long run-out debris flows caused by oversaturated soil systems during the aggravated monsoon period in the Western Ghats raise questions about the hill community’s future. Here, we report the catastrophic long run-out Wayanad debris flow that occurred on 30th July 2024, which resulted in 231 fatalities and 128 people missing, and caused widespread destruction to infrastructure. This involved a maximum flow height of 10.66 m and maximum flow velocity of 18.7 m/s, simulated using RApid Mass Movement Simulation.
西高止山脉季风加剧期间,土壤系统过饱和造成的长期泥石流引发了对山地社区未来的质疑。在这里,我们报道发生在2024年7月30日的灾难性长时间Wayanad泥石流,造成231人死亡,128人失踪,并对基础设施造成广泛破坏。其中最大流高10.66 m,最大流速18.7 m/s,采用快速质量运动模拟进行模拟。
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引用次数: 0
Simulating flood risk in Tampa Bay using a machine learning driven approach 使用机器学习驱动的方法模拟坦帕湾的洪水风险
Pub Date : 2024-12-06 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00045-4
Hemal Dey, Md Munjurul Haque, Wanyun Shao, Matthew VanDyke, Feng Hao
Machine learning (ML) models can simulate flood risk by identifying critical non-linear relationships between flood damage locations and flood risk factors (FRFs). To explore it, Tampa Bay, Florida, is selected as a test site. The study’s goal is to simulate flood risk and identify dominant FRFs using historical flood damage data as target variable, with 16 FRFs as predictor variables. Five different ML models such as decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest (RF) were adopted. RF classifies 2.42% of Tampa Bay as very high risk and 2.54% as high risk, while XGBoost classifies 3.85% as very high risk and 1.11% as high risk. Moreover, the communities reside at low altitudes and near the waterbodies, with dense man-made infrastructure, are at high flood risk. This study introduces a comprehensive framework for flood risk assessment and helps policymakers mitigate flood risk.
机器学习(ML)模型可以通过识别洪水破坏位置和洪水风险因素(frf)之间的关键非线性关系来模拟洪水风险。为了探索它,佛罗里达州的坦帕湾被选为试验场。该研究的目标是模拟洪水风险,并以历史洪水损失数据作为目标变量,以16个frf作为预测变量,确定主要frf。采用决策树(DT)、支持向量机(SVM)、自适应增强(AdaBoost)、极端梯度增强(XGBoost)和随机森林(RF) 5种不同的机器学习模型。RF将Tampa Bay的2.42%归为非常高风险,2.54%归为高风险,而XGBoost将3.85%归为非常高风险,1.11%归为高风险。此外,这些社区居住在低海拔地区,靠近水体,人工基础设施密集,洪水风险很高。本研究引入了洪水风险评估的综合框架,有助于决策者降低洪水风险。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-century geological data thins the tail of observationally based extreme sea level return period curves 多世纪的地质资料使基于观测的极端海平面回归周期曲线的尾部变薄
Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00040-9
Kristen M. Joyse, Michael L. Stein, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert E. Kopp
Estimates of extreme sea-level return periods guide flood hazard mitigation. Return period estimates calculated from tide gauge records, which are relatively short (typically less than 100 years), can fail to capture the rarest and most potentially impactful extreme events. Here, we employ a two-dimensional Poisson point process model to fuse water-level data from tide gauges with data from multi-century geologic records of extreme overwash events. Experiments with synthetic data show that including geologic data reduces the uncertainty of 1% and 0.1% average annual chance water levels by about half, relative to using tide gauge data alone. Similar uncertainty reductions occur with two case studies of geologic data (Mattapoisett Marsh, Massachusetts and Cheesequake, New Jersey) and their neighboring tide gauges (Woods Hole, Massachusetts and the Battery, New York). The analysis also reveals non-stationarity at Cheesequake and The Battery, arising from either climatic changes or changes in the fidelity of the geological record, with substantially higher 1–10% average annual chance water levels since 1900 compared to prior centuries.
对极端海平面回归期的估计为减轻洪水灾害提供了指导。根据测潮仪记录计算的回归期估计相对较短(通常不到100年),可能无法捕捉到最罕见和最具潜在影响的极端事件。在这里,我们采用二维泊松点过程模型将潮汐计的水位数据与多世纪极端冲过事件的地质记录数据融合在一起。用合成数据进行的实验表明,与单独使用潮汐计数据相比,将地质数据包括在内可以将1%和0.1%的年平均水位不确定性降低约一半。类似的不确定性减少也发生在地质数据的两个案例研究(马萨诸塞州的Mattapoisett Marsh和新泽西州的Cheesequake)及其邻近的潮汐计(马萨诸塞州的Woods Hole和纽约的Battery)中。分析还揭示了Cheesequake和The Battery的非平稳性,这是由气候变化或地质记录保真度的变化引起的,自1900年以来,与之前的几个世纪相比,平均年平均水位高出1-10%。
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引用次数: 0
The role of insurers in driving post-hurricane risk reduction investments 保险公司在推动飓风后风险降低投资中的作用
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00035-6
Carolyn Kousky, Xuesong You
To protect households and communities from growing losses due to natural disasters and stabilize climate-stressed insurance markets, investments in cost-effective risk reduction must be expanded. Using a unique survey of survivors of one of four U.S. landfalling hurricanes, we investigate the decision to invest in mitigation measures during rebuilding. We find that insurers play a key role in this process by providing both information and financial incentives.
为了保护家庭和社区免受自然灾害造成的日益严重的损失,并稳定气候压力下的保险市场,必须扩大在具有成本效益的降低风险方面的投资。通过对美国四次登陆飓风之一的幸存者进行的独特调查,我们调查了在重建期间投资减灾措施的决定。我们发现保险公司通过提供信息和财政激励在这一过程中发挥了关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels 一种评估海平面上升下全球港口网络海啸风险的方法
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00039-2
Constance Ting Chua, Takuro Otake, Tanghua Li, An-Chi Cheng, Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Anawat Suppasri, Fumihiko Imamura, Adam D. Switzer
Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.
海港容易受到极端海平面事件的影响。除了物理损失之外,任何港口的不可操作性都会影响进出受影响港口的贸易流量,并扰乱与之相连的航运路线,然后在整个港口网络中传播。在此,我们提出了一种评估港口和全球港口网络的海啸风险的方法。我们利用全球班轮运输网络的拓扑特性和中心性度量来量化马尼拉海沟地震海啸在当前和未来海平面下的潜在影响。我们发现,马尼拉海沟海啸在当前条件下可能会破坏多达11个港口,在海平面上升的情况下可能会破坏15个港口。港口关闭可能超过200天,对航线造成的破坏比历史上的海啸事件更大。我们还发现,海平面上升可能导致海啸高度在空间上的不均匀变化,从而对全球港口网络产生不均匀的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a rapid assessment framework for China earthquake disaster losses: insights from physical simulations of the Yangbi earthquake 建立中国地震灾害损失快速评估框架:来自杨壁地震物理模拟的见解
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00037-4
Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen
Earthquakes remain unpredictable and pose significant challenges to disaster preparedness. This study develops a rapid assessment framework for earthquake disaster losses based on physical simulations, demonstrated through analysis of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake. A finite fault source based on observed data is employed on a GPU-accelerated 3D strong ground motion simulation platform. The computational process considers the effects of 3D heterogeneous velocity structure and terrain. Subsequently, this data is incorporated into a mathematical model for earthquake disaster loss assessment derived from historical statistics, evaluating emergency response levels, fatalities, and economic losses. The inclusion of teleseismic data into this framework underscores its extensive applicability for rapid loss assessments, even in regions lacking local seismic data. Through comparisons with station observation waveforms and government-reported loss, the validity and practicality of the framework were substantiated. It plays a vital role in assisting emergency decisions, optimizing resource allocation, and further mitigating losses.
地震仍然不可预测,对备灾工作构成重大挑战。本研究开发了一个基于物理模拟的地震灾害损失快速评估框架,并通过对2021年杨壁6.4级地震的分析进行了验证。在gpu加速的三维强地震动仿真平台上,采用基于观测数据的有限故障源。计算过程考虑了三维非均质速度结构和地形的影响。随后,这些数据被纳入基于历史统计的地震灾害损失评估数学模型,评估应急响应水平、死亡人数和经济损失。将远震数据纳入这一框架强调了它对快速损失评估的广泛适用性,即使在缺乏当地地震数据的地区也是如此。通过与台站观测波形和政府报告损失的比较,验证了该框架的有效性和实用性。它在协助应急决策、优化资源分配和进一步减少损失方面发挥着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Author Correction: Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect 作者更正:连接南美洲中部和东南部的复合干热火灾事件:一种不明显的致命连锁反应
Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00043-6
Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, Renata Libonati
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引用次数: 0
Rethinking natural hazards research and engagement to include co-creation with Indigenous communities 重新思考自然灾害研究和参与,纳入与土著社区共同创造的内容
Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00034-7
Thomas J. Jones, Harry Nyce Jr., Yannick Le Moigne, Glyn Williams-Jones, Deanna Nyce
Indigenous peoples are widely affected by natural hazards and their history and knowledge can directly inform on past events and mitigation strategies. Here we show how effective co-creation of resources and bi-lateral knowledge exchange between natural hazard researchers and local Indigenous communities provides an effective, equitable, and sustainable way to conduct research.
原住民广泛受到自然灾害的影响,他们的历史和知识可以直接为过去的事件和减灾战略提供信息。在此,我们将展示自然灾害研究人员与当地土著社区之间如何有效地共同创造资源和进行双边知识交流,从而提供一种有效、公平和可持续的研究方式。
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引用次数: 0
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npj Natural Hazards
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