首页 > 最新文献

npj Natural Hazards最新文献

英文 中文
Multi-century geological data thins the tail of observationally based extreme sea level return period curves
Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00040-9
Kristen M. Joyse, Michael L. Stein, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert E. Kopp
Estimates of extreme sea-level return periods guide flood hazard mitigation. Return period estimates calculated from tide gauge records, which are relatively short (typically less than 100 years), can fail to capture the rarest and most potentially impactful extreme events. Here, we employ a two-dimensional Poisson point process model to fuse water-level data from tide gauges with data from multi-century geologic records of extreme overwash events. Experiments with synthetic data show that including geologic data reduces the uncertainty of 1% and 0.1% average annual chance water levels by about half, relative to using tide gauge data alone. Similar uncertainty reductions occur with two case studies of geologic data (Mattapoisett Marsh, Massachusetts and Cheesequake, New Jersey) and their neighboring tide gauges (Woods Hole, Massachusetts and the Battery, New York). The analysis also reveals non-stationarity at Cheesequake and The Battery, arising from either climatic changes or changes in the fidelity of the geological record, with substantially higher 1–10% average annual chance water levels since 1900 compared to prior centuries.
{"title":"Multi-century geological data thins the tail of observationally based extreme sea level return period curves","authors":"Kristen M. Joyse, Michael L. Stein, Benjamin P. Horton, Robert E. Kopp","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00040-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00040-9","url":null,"abstract":"Estimates of extreme sea-level return periods guide flood hazard mitigation. Return period estimates calculated from tide gauge records, which are relatively short (typically less than 100 years), can fail to capture the rarest and most potentially impactful extreme events. Here, we employ a two-dimensional Poisson point process model to fuse water-level data from tide gauges with data from multi-century geologic records of extreme overwash events. Experiments with synthetic data show that including geologic data reduces the uncertainty of 1% and 0.1% average annual chance water levels by about half, relative to using tide gauge data alone. Similar uncertainty reductions occur with two case studies of geologic data (Mattapoisett Marsh, Massachusetts and Cheesequake, New Jersey) and their neighboring tide gauges (Woods Hole, Massachusetts and the Battery, New York). The analysis also reveals non-stationarity at Cheesequake and The Battery, arising from either climatic changes or changes in the fidelity of the geological record, with substantially higher 1–10% average annual chance water levels since 1900 compared to prior centuries.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00040-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The role of insurers in driving post-hurricane risk reduction investments
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00035-6
Carolyn Kousky, Xuesong You
To protect households and communities from growing losses due to natural disasters and stabilize climate-stressed insurance markets, investments in cost-effective risk reduction must be expanded. Using a unique survey of survivors of one of four U.S. landfalling hurricanes, we investigate the decision to invest in mitigation measures during rebuilding. We find that insurers play a key role in this process by providing both information and financial incentives.
{"title":"The role of insurers in driving post-hurricane risk reduction investments","authors":"Carolyn Kousky, Xuesong You","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00035-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00035-6","url":null,"abstract":"To protect households and communities from growing losses due to natural disasters and stabilize climate-stressed insurance markets, investments in cost-effective risk reduction must be expanded. Using a unique survey of survivors of one of four U.S. landfalling hurricanes, we investigate the decision to invest in mitigation measures during rebuilding. We find that insurers play a key role in this process by providing both information and financial incentives.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00035-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00039-2
Constance Ting Chua, Takuro Otake, Tanghua Li, An-Chi Cheng, Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Anawat Suppasri, Fumihiko Imamura, Adam D. Switzer
Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.
{"title":"An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels","authors":"Constance Ting Chua, Takuro Otake, Tanghua Li, An-Chi Cheng, Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li, Anawat Suppasri, Fumihiko Imamura, Adam D. Switzer","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00039-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00039-2","url":null,"abstract":"Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00039-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Developing a rapid assessment framework for China earthquake disaster losses: insights from physical simulations of the Yangbi earthquake
Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00037-4
Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen
Earthquakes remain unpredictable and pose significant challenges to disaster preparedness. This study develops a rapid assessment framework for earthquake disaster losses based on physical simulations, demonstrated through analysis of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake. A finite fault source based on observed data is employed on a GPU-accelerated 3D strong ground motion simulation platform. The computational process considers the effects of 3D heterogeneous velocity structure and terrain. Subsequently, this data is incorporated into a mathematical model for earthquake disaster loss assessment derived from historical statistics, evaluating emergency response levels, fatalities, and economic losses. The inclusion of teleseismic data into this framework underscores its extensive applicability for rapid loss assessments, even in regions lacking local seismic data. Through comparisons with station observation waveforms and government-reported loss, the validity and practicality of the framework were substantiated. It plays a vital role in assisting emergency decisions, optimizing resource allocation, and further mitigating losses.
{"title":"Developing a rapid assessment framework for China earthquake disaster losses: insights from physical simulations of the Yangbi earthquake","authors":"Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00037-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00037-4","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquakes remain unpredictable and pose significant challenges to disaster preparedness. This study develops a rapid assessment framework for earthquake disaster losses based on physical simulations, demonstrated through analysis of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi earthquake. A finite fault source based on observed data is employed on a GPU-accelerated 3D strong ground motion simulation platform. The computational process considers the effects of 3D heterogeneous velocity structure and terrain. Subsequently, this data is incorporated into a mathematical model for earthquake disaster loss assessment derived from historical statistics, evaluating emergency response levels, fatalities, and economic losses. The inclusion of teleseismic data into this framework underscores its extensive applicability for rapid loss assessments, even in regions lacking local seismic data. Through comparisons with station observation waveforms and government-reported loss, the validity and practicality of the framework were substantiated. It plays a vital role in assisting emergency decisions, optimizing resource allocation, and further mitigating losses.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00037-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Author Correction: Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect
Pub Date : 2024-12-02 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00043-6
Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, Renata Libonati
{"title":"Author Correction: Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect","authors":"Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, Renata Libonati","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00043-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00043-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00043-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142758120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rethinking natural hazards research and engagement to include co-creation with Indigenous communities 重新思考自然灾害研究和参与,纳入与土著社区共同创造的内容
Pub Date : 2024-11-22 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00034-7
Thomas J. Jones, Harry Nyce Jr., Yannick Le Moigne, Glyn Williams-Jones, Deanna Nyce
Indigenous peoples are widely affected by natural hazards and their history and knowledge can directly inform on past events and mitigation strategies. Here we show how effective co-creation of resources and bi-lateral knowledge exchange between natural hazard researchers and local Indigenous communities provides an effective, equitable, and sustainable way to conduct research.
原住民广泛受到自然灾害的影响,他们的历史和知识可以直接为过去的事件和减灾战略提供信息。在此,我们将展示自然灾害研究人员与当地土著社区之间如何有效地共同创造资源和进行双边知识交流,从而提供一种有效、公平和可持续的研究方式。
{"title":"Rethinking natural hazards research and engagement to include co-creation with Indigenous communities","authors":"Thomas J. Jones, Harry Nyce Jr., Yannick Le Moigne, Glyn Williams-Jones, Deanna Nyce","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00034-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00034-7","url":null,"abstract":"Indigenous peoples are widely affected by natural hazards and their history and knowledge can directly inform on past events and mitigation strategies. Here we show how effective co-creation of resources and bi-lateral knowledge exchange between natural hazard researchers and local Indigenous communities provides an effective, equitable, and sustainable way to conduct research.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00034-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142679961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using surrogate modeling to predict storm surge on evolving landscapes under climate change 利用代用模型预测气候变化下不断变化的地貌上的风暴潮
Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00032-9
Mohammad Ahmadi Gharehtoragh, David R. Johnson
Planners managing coastal flood risk under a constrained computational budget face a tradeoff. Simulating many time periods or scenarios limits how many storm simulations can be run on each landscape. In this analysis, we present a deep learning model to predict storm surge as a function of storm parameters but also landscape features and boundary conditions (e.g., sea level). It is trained on peak surge elevations from Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic simulations of coastal Louisiana in a 2020 baseline and decadal periods from 2030 to 2070 under two morphological and climate scenarios. Leave-one-landscape-out cross-validation yielded a 0.086-m RMSE and 0.050-m MAE over 90 storms per landscape and 94,013 geospatial locations. A two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov test comparing annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates from the model predictions to ADCIRC simulations rejected the null hypothesis that the predicted and ADCIRC AEP values were drawn from the same distribution only 1.1% of the time.
在计算预算有限的情况下,管理沿岸洪水风险的规划人员需要权衡利弊。模拟多个时段或场景会限制在每个地貌上运行多少次风暴模拟。在本分析中,我们提出了一种深度学习模型,用于预测风暴潮,它不仅是风暴参数的函数,也是地貌特征和边界条件(如海平面)的函数。该模型是根据高级环流(ADCIRC)对路易斯安那州沿海 2020 年基线和 2030 年至 2070 年十年期两种形态和气候情景下的水动力模拟得出的浪涌峰值进行训练的。在每个地貌 90 次风暴和 94,013 个地理空间位置上,对一个地貌进行交叉验证,得出的均方根误差为 0.086 米,最大均方根误差为 0.050 米。对模型预测和 ADCIRC 模拟的年超标概率(AEP)估计值进行了双侧 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 检验,仅有 1.1% 的时间拒绝了预测值和 ADCIRC AEP 值来自同一分布的零假设。
{"title":"Using surrogate modeling to predict storm surge on evolving landscapes under climate change","authors":"Mohammad Ahmadi Gharehtoragh, David R. Johnson","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00032-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00032-9","url":null,"abstract":"Planners managing coastal flood risk under a constrained computational budget face a tradeoff. Simulating many time periods or scenarios limits how many storm simulations can be run on each landscape. In this analysis, we present a deep learning model to predict storm surge as a function of storm parameters but also landscape features and boundary conditions (e.g., sea level). It is trained on peak surge elevations from Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic simulations of coastal Louisiana in a 2020 baseline and decadal periods from 2030 to 2070 under two morphological and climate scenarios. Leave-one-landscape-out cross-validation yielded a 0.086-m RMSE and 0.050-m MAE over 90 storms per landscape and 94,013 geospatial locations. A two-sided Kolmogorov-Smirnov test comparing annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimates from the model predictions to ADCIRC simulations rejected the null hypothesis that the predicted and ADCIRC AEP values were drawn from the same distribution only 1.1% of the time.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00032-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect 连接南美洲中部和东南部的复合干热风火事件:不明显的致命涟漪效应
Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00031-w
Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, Renata Libonati
South America has experienced severe compound drought-heatwaves (CDHW), exacerbating fires. Recently, the unprecedented Pantanal 2020 fire season (P20F), burning a third of the biome, resulted in well-reported local impacts on the ecosystem, economy, and health. Nevertheless, the long-range ripple effects of this event remain unknown. We investigated the P20F-related cascading hazards, integrating models, observational and satellite-based data. P20F-related smoke elevated PM2.5 levels in the SA’s most populated area, exceeding WHO guidelines by up to 600%. Smoke-induced air pollution episodes coincided with widespread heatwaves, amplifying health risks. The mortality burden attributable to this multi-hazard short-term (14 days) exposure was estimated to be 2150 premature deaths (21% increase above expected levels). Our findings highlight that the impacts of CDHW-fires in SA are beyond the local level, implying growing challenges for risk management and public health and the need for governance based on telecoupled flows, linking different systems over multiple scales.
南美洲经历了严重的复合干旱热浪(CDHW),加剧了火灾。最近,史无前例的潘塔纳尔 2020 火灾季(P20F)烧毁了三分之一的生物群落,对当地生态系统、经济和健康造成的影响有大量报道。然而,这一事件的长期连锁反应仍然未知。我们结合模型、观测数据和卫星数据,调查了与 P20F 相关的连锁危害。在南澳大利亚人口最稠密的地区,与 P20F 相关的烟雾导致 PM2.5 水平升高,超出世卫组织标准高达 600%。烟雾引发的空气污染事件与大范围的热浪同时发生,扩大了健康风险。据估计,这种多种危害的短期(14 天)暴露造成的死亡负担为 2150 人过早死亡(比预期水平增加 21%)。我们的研究结果突出表明,南澳大利亚的 CDHW 火灾影响超出了当地水平,这意味着风险管理和公共卫生面临着日益严峻的挑战,需要基于远程耦合流进行治理,在多个尺度上将不同系统联系起来。
{"title":"Compound dry-hot-fire events connecting Central and Southeastern South America: an unapparent and deadly ripple effect","authors":"Djacinto Monteiro dos Santos, Aline M. de Oliveira, Ediclê S. F. Duarte, Julia A. Rodrigues, Lucas S. Menezes, Ronaldo Albuquerque, Fabio de O. Roque, Leonardo F. Peres, Judith J. Hoelzemann, Renata Libonati","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00031-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00031-w","url":null,"abstract":"South America has experienced severe compound drought-heatwaves (CDHW), exacerbating fires. Recently, the unprecedented Pantanal 2020 fire season (P20F), burning a third of the biome, resulted in well-reported local impacts on the ecosystem, economy, and health. Nevertheless, the long-range ripple effects of this event remain unknown. We investigated the P20F-related cascading hazards, integrating models, observational and satellite-based data. P20F-related smoke elevated PM2.5 levels in the SA’s most populated area, exceeding WHO guidelines by up to 600%. Smoke-induced air pollution episodes coincided with widespread heatwaves, amplifying health risks. The mortality burden attributable to this multi-hazard short-term (14 days) exposure was estimated to be 2150 premature deaths (21% increase above expected levels). Our findings highlight that the impacts of CDHW-fires in SA are beyond the local level, implying growing challenges for risk management and public health and the need for governance based on telecoupled flows, linking different systems over multiple scales.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00031-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142595685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From rest to eruption: How we should anticipate volcanic eruptions 从静止到喷发:我们应该如何预测火山爆发
Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00033-8
J. Martí
Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by unrest, marked by increased seismicity, ground deformation, and gas emissions. Unrest can last from decades to minutes. Accurate eruption forecasting relies on real-time monitoring and understanding the volcano’s past behavior. Long-term hazard assessments, combined with real-time data, help identify probable eruptive scenarios (short-term hazard assessment), improving forecasting during volcanic crises.
火山爆发前通常会发生动乱,其特点是地震、地面变形和气体排放增加。动乱可持续数十年至数分钟不等。准确的火山爆发预报依赖于实时监测和对火山过去行为的了解。长期危害评估与实时数据相结合,有助于确定可能的喷发情况(短期危害评估),从而改进火山危机期间的预报。
{"title":"From rest to eruption: How we should anticipate volcanic eruptions","authors":"J. Martí","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00033-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00033-8","url":null,"abstract":"Volcanic eruptions are typically preceded by unrest, marked by increased seismicity, ground deformation, and gas emissions. Unrest can last from decades to minutes. Accurate eruption forecasting relies on real-time monitoring and understanding the volcano’s past behavior. Long-term hazard assessments, combined with real-time data, help identify probable eruptive scenarios (short-term hazard assessment), improving forecasting during volcanic crises.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00033-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142595716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation of economic loss by earthquakes in Taiwan Region 台湾地区地震经济损失估算
Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00030-x
Yang Shi, Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang
Earthquakes in the Taiwan region have caused significant economic losses. We develop a model to assess seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region using the records of economic losses caused by historical earthquakes. Unlike existing models, we introduce Gross National Income Per Capita (GNIPC) as a parameter that responds to the influence of socio-economic development. The results show that our model can accurately estimate the earthquake economic losses in Taiwan region. The difference between the results of this model and those of existing models is evident, indicating differences between the Taiwan region and mainland China regarding geological background, seismic tectonics, and social resistance to earthquakes. The prediction results also imply that the society significantly underestimates the seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region. Our model can help the Taiwan region in disaster prevention and preparedness, contingency planning, allocation of relief resources, and post-disaster socio-economic recovery.
台湾地区的地震造成了巨大的经济损失。我们利用历史地震造成的经济损失记录,建立了一个评估台湾地区地震经济损失的模型。与现有模型不同的是,我们引入了人均国民总收入(GNIPC)作为参数,以反应社会经济发展的影响。结果表明,我们的模型可以准确估计台湾地区的地震经济损失。本模型的结果与现有模型的结果差异明显,表明台湾地区与中国大陆在地质背景、地震构造和社会抗震能力等方面存在差异。预测结果还表明,社会对台湾地区地震经济损失的估计明显偏低。我们的模型有助于台湾地区的防灾备灾、应急规划、救灾资源分配和灾后社会经济恢复。
{"title":"Estimation of economic loss by earthquakes in Taiwan Region","authors":"Yang Shi, Yilong Li, Zhenguo Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00030-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00030-x","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquakes in the Taiwan region have caused significant economic losses. We develop a model to assess seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region using the records of economic losses caused by historical earthquakes. Unlike existing models, we introduce Gross National Income Per Capita (GNIPC) as a parameter that responds to the influence of socio-economic development. The results show that our model can accurately estimate the earthquake economic losses in Taiwan region. The difference between the results of this model and those of existing models is evident, indicating differences between the Taiwan region and mainland China regarding geological background, seismic tectonics, and social resistance to earthquakes. The prediction results also imply that the society significantly underestimates the seismic economic losses in the Taiwan region. Our model can help the Taiwan region in disaster prevention and preparedness, contingency planning, allocation of relief resources, and post-disaster socio-economic recovery.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00030-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142595757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
npj Natural Hazards
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1