Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8
Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley
Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.
{"title":"Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows","authors":"Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8","url":null,"abstract":"Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00017-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141292658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w
Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker
Whether disasters serve as focusing events leading to measures that reduce future disaster risks is contested. Here, we study flood disasters in 23 of the world’s most flood-prone countries to assess whether catastrophic floods, those milestone events with the highest fatalities, have been followed by decreasing mortality in subsequent floods. Results from a trend analysis, controlling for flood magnitude and subtypes, find that reductions in mortality rates have rarely followed the most devastating floods.
{"title":"Assessing the myth of disaster risk reduction in the wake of catastrophic floods","authors":"Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w","url":null,"abstract":"Whether disasters serve as focusing events leading to measures that reduce future disaster risks is contested. Here, we study flood disasters in 23 of the world’s most flood-prone countries to assess whether catastrophic floods, those milestone events with the highest fatalities, have been followed by decreasing mortality in subsequent floods. Results from a trend analysis, controlling for flood magnitude and subtypes, find that reductions in mortality rates have rarely followed the most devastating floods.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00007-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8
José Mantovani, Enner Alcântara, Luana A. Pampuch, Cheila Flávia Praga Baião, Edward Park, Maria Souza Custódio, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo
This analysis delves into precipitation dynamics in the Bacia Taquari Antas region, with a focus on September 2023. Employing a multi-scale approach encompassing monthly, daily, and subdaily analyses, the study unveils a consistent precipitation distribution throughout the year. September 2023’s anomaly, the second-highest in the dataset, prompts investigation into potential climatic variability. Notably, the daily analysis highlights September 4th, 2023, as significant, emphasizing the importance of historical context in evaluating weather event severity. Subdaily scrutiny of September 4th reveals intense, localized precipitation, raising concerns about hydrological impacts such as flash floods. Positive trends in Rx5day (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and R25 (number of days in a year when precipitation exceeds 25 mm) indices indicate an increase in heavy precipitation events, aligning with broader climate change concerns. Shifting focus to flood extent and impact assessment in the Taquari-Antas Basin, a simulation model depicts the temporal evolution of the flood, reaching its peak on September 4th. Examination of affected areas, rainfall volumes, and impacts on census sectors, cities, and buildings furnishes critical data for disaster management. This study contributes to localized precipitation comprehension and broader issues of climate trends, flood risk evaluation, and urban vulnerability, providing a basis for informed decision-making and resilient planning strategies.
{"title":"Assessing flood risks in the Taquari-Antas Basin (Southeast Brazil) during the September 2023 extreme rainfall surge","authors":"José Mantovani, Enner Alcântara, Luana A. Pampuch, Cheila Flávia Praga Baião, Edward Park, Maria Souza Custódio, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis delves into precipitation dynamics in the Bacia Taquari Antas region, with a focus on September 2023. Employing a multi-scale approach encompassing monthly, daily, and subdaily analyses, the study unveils a consistent precipitation distribution throughout the year. September 2023’s anomaly, the second-highest in the dataset, prompts investigation into potential climatic variability. Notably, the daily analysis highlights September 4th, 2023, as significant, emphasizing the importance of historical context in evaluating weather event severity. Subdaily scrutiny of September 4th reveals intense, localized precipitation, raising concerns about hydrological impacts such as flash floods. Positive trends in Rx5day (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and R25 (number of days in a year when precipitation exceeds 25 mm) indices indicate an increase in heavy precipitation events, aligning with broader climate change concerns. Shifting focus to flood extent and impact assessment in the Taquari-Antas Basin, a simulation model depicts the temporal evolution of the flood, reaching its peak on September 4th. Examination of affected areas, rainfall volumes, and impacts on census sectors, cities, and buildings furnishes critical data for disaster management. This study contributes to localized precipitation comprehension and broader issues of climate trends, flood risk evaluation, and urban vulnerability, providing a basis for informed decision-making and resilient planning strategies.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00009-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00010-1
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Philip J. Ward, Sanne Muis
Coastal flooding resulting from tropical cyclones can have large repercussions in many low-lying regions around the world. Accurate flood risk assessments are crucial for designing measures to reduce the societal impacts of coastal flooding. At continental to global scales, however, traditional flood risk assessments mostly use methods that do not capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal flood risk patterns. In this study, we address these deficiencies by applying a novel modelling framework that dynamically simulates stochastic coastal flood risk for the east coast of Africa. Using 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclones and a cascade of hydrodynamic models to simulate storm tides and flooding, we calculate the damage of each individual tropical cyclone event and empirically derive the risk curve for each country. Results show that the largest aggregated annual losses in the region come from multiple events rather than from a single low-probability event. Results also reveal that events with the highest return periods in terms of storm surge residual levels and flood extents are not necessarily the most damaging events. Here, the 1 in 10,000-year damage event is associated with a 1 in 45-year event in terms of flood extent, showing that addressing exposure and vulnerability is essential in determining risk. Our modelling framework enables a high-resolution continental-scale risk analysis that takes the spatial dependencies of flood events into account.
{"title":"Stochastic coastal flood risk modelling for the east coast of Africa","authors":"Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Philip J. Ward, Sanne Muis","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00010-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00010-1","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal flooding resulting from tropical cyclones can have large repercussions in many low-lying regions around the world. Accurate flood risk assessments are crucial for designing measures to reduce the societal impacts of coastal flooding. At continental to global scales, however, traditional flood risk assessments mostly use methods that do not capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal flood risk patterns. In this study, we address these deficiencies by applying a novel modelling framework that dynamically simulates stochastic coastal flood risk for the east coast of Africa. Using 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclones and a cascade of hydrodynamic models to simulate storm tides and flooding, we calculate the damage of each individual tropical cyclone event and empirically derive the risk curve for each country. Results show that the largest aggregated annual losses in the region come from multiple events rather than from a single low-probability event. Results also reveal that events with the highest return periods in terms of storm surge residual levels and flood extents are not necessarily the most damaging events. Here, the 1 in 10,000-year damage event is associated with a 1 in 45-year event in terms of flood extent, showing that addressing exposure and vulnerability is essential in determining risk. Our modelling framework enables a high-resolution continental-scale risk analysis that takes the spatial dependencies of flood events into account.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00010-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00011-0
Roger Pielke Jr
For more than two decades, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published a count of weather-related disasters in the United States that it estimates have exceeded one billion dollars (inflation adjusted) in each calendar year starting in 1980. The dataset is widely cited and applied in research, assessment and invoked to justify policy in federal agencies, Congress and by the U.S. President. This paper performs an evaluation of the dataset under criteria of procedure and substance defined under NOAA’s Information Quality and Scientific Integrity policies. The evaluation finds that the “billion dollar disaster” dataset falls short of meeting these criteria. Thus, public claims promoted by NOAA associated with the dataset and its significance are flawed and at times misleading. Specifically, NOAA incorrectly claims that for some types of extreme weather, the dataset demonstrates detection and attribution of changes on climate timescales. Similarly flawed are NOAA’s claims that increasing annual counts of billion dollar disasters are in part a consequence of human caused climate change. NOAA’s claims to have achieved detection and attribution are not supported by any scientific analysis that it has performed. Given the importance and influence of the dataset in science and policy, NOAA should act quickly to address this scientific integrity shortfall.
{"title":"Scientific integrity and U.S. “Billion Dollar Disasters”","authors":"Roger Pielke Jr","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00011-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00011-0","url":null,"abstract":"For more than two decades, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has published a count of weather-related disasters in the United States that it estimates have exceeded one billion dollars (inflation adjusted) in each calendar year starting in 1980. The dataset is widely cited and applied in research, assessment and invoked to justify policy in federal agencies, Congress and by the U.S. President. This paper performs an evaluation of the dataset under criteria of procedure and substance defined under NOAA’s Information Quality and Scientific Integrity policies. The evaluation finds that the “billion dollar disaster” dataset falls short of meeting these criteria. Thus, public claims promoted by NOAA associated with the dataset and its significance are flawed and at times misleading. Specifically, NOAA incorrectly claims that for some types of extreme weather, the dataset demonstrates detection and attribution of changes on climate timescales. Similarly flawed are NOAA’s claims that increasing annual counts of billion dollar disasters are in part a consequence of human caused climate change. NOAA’s claims to have achieved detection and attribution are not supported by any scientific analysis that it has performed. Given the importance and influence of the dataset in science and policy, NOAA should act quickly to address this scientific integrity shortfall.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00011-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) has intensified with continued global warming and socio-economic development. Quantifying the TC economic exposure is a core element of economic risk assessment for TCs. The centroid of annual economic exposure to TCs in China shifted northward at a rate of 19.71 km per year from 2006 to 2020, where changes in the TC tracks contributed a northward shift of 11.22 km per year and changes in GDP distribution contributed a northward shift of 7.75 km per year. The northward shift of TC economic exposure centroid is more than twice as sensitive to the shift of GDP distribution as to that of TC tracks. The phenomenon of the northward shift in TC economic exposure is particularly evident in the subtropical zone in China. Further northward shift of TC exposure could potentially cause higher socio-economic losses in places underprepared for TC hazards. Our result provides references for TC disaster mitigation and preparedness in China.
{"title":"Recent northward shift of tropical cyclone economic risk in China","authors":"Lianjie Qin, Laiyin Zhu, Xinli Liao, Chenna Meng, Qinmei Han, Zixuan Li, Shifei Shen, Wei Xu, Jianguo Chen","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00008-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00008-9","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of tropical cyclones (TCs) has intensified with continued global warming and socio-economic development. Quantifying the TC economic exposure is a core element of economic risk assessment for TCs. The centroid of annual economic exposure to TCs in China shifted northward at a rate of 19.71 km per year from 2006 to 2020, where changes in the TC tracks contributed a northward shift of 11.22 km per year and changes in GDP distribution contributed a northward shift of 7.75 km per year. The northward shift of TC economic exposure centroid is more than twice as sensitive to the shift of GDP distribution as to that of TC tracks. The phenomenon of the northward shift in TC economic exposure is particularly evident in the subtropical zone in China. Further northward shift of TC exposure could potentially cause higher socio-economic losses in places underprepared for TC hazards. Our result provides references for TC disaster mitigation and preparedness in China.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00008-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141182310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-07DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00006-x
Katsuichiro Goda, Raffaele De Risi
A new time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk model is developed to facilitate the long-term risk management strategies for coastal communities. The model incorporates the time-dependency of earthquake occurrence and considers numerous heterogeneous slip distributions via a stochastic source modeling approach. Tidal level effects are examined by considering different baseline sea levels. The model is applied to Tofino, British Columbia, Canada within the Cascadia subduction zone. High-resolution topography and high-quality exposure data are utilized to accurately evaluate tsunami damage and economic loss to buildings. The results are tsunami loss curves accounting for different elapsed times since the last major event. The evolutionary aspects of Tofino’s time-dependent tsunami risk profiles show that the current tsunami risk is lower than the tsunami risk based on the conventional time-independent Poisson occurrence model. In contrast, the future tsunami risk in 2100 will exceed the time-independent tsunami risk estimate.
{"title":"Time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk assessment: application to Tofino, British Columbia, Canada, subjected to Cascadia subduction earthquakes","authors":"Katsuichiro Goda, Raffaele De Risi","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00006-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00006-x","url":null,"abstract":"A new time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk model is developed to facilitate the long-term risk management strategies for coastal communities. The model incorporates the time-dependency of earthquake occurrence and considers numerous heterogeneous slip distributions via a stochastic source modeling approach. Tidal level effects are examined by considering different baseline sea levels. The model is applied to Tofino, British Columbia, Canada within the Cascadia subduction zone. High-resolution topography and high-quality exposure data are utilized to accurately evaluate tsunami damage and economic loss to buildings. The results are tsunami loss curves accounting for different elapsed times since the last major event. The evolutionary aspects of Tofino’s time-dependent tsunami risk profiles show that the current tsunami risk is lower than the tsunami risk based on the conventional time-independent Poisson occurrence model. In contrast, the future tsunami risk in 2100 will exceed the time-independent tsunami risk estimate.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00006-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140844999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-05-02DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00004-z
Md Adilur Rahim, Ayat Al Assi, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, Carol J. Friedland
The flood depth in a structure is a key factor in flood loss models, influencing the estimation of building and contents losses, as well as overall flood risk. Recent studies have emphasized the importance of determining the damage initiation point (DIP) of depth-damage functions, where the flood damage is assumed to initiate with respect to the first-floor height of the building. Here we investigate the effects of DIP selection on the flood risk assessment of buildings located in Special Flood Hazard Areas. We characterize flood using the Gumbel extreme value distribution’s location (μ) and scale (α) parameters. Results reveal that average annual flood loss (AAL) values do not depend on μ, but instead follow an exponential decay pattern with α when damage initiates below the first-floor height of a building (i.e., negative DIP). A linear increasing pattern of the AAL with α is achieved by changing the DIP to the first-floor height (i.e., DIP = 0). The study also demonstrates that negative DIPs have larger associated AAL, thus contributing substantially to the overall AAL, compared to positive DIPs. The study underscores the significance of proper DIP selection in flood risk assessment.
{"title":"Effects of damage initiation points of depth-damage function on flood risk assessment","authors":"Md Adilur Rahim, Ayat Al Assi, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz, Carol J. Friedland","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00004-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00004-z","url":null,"abstract":"The flood depth in a structure is a key factor in flood loss models, influencing the estimation of building and contents losses, as well as overall flood risk. Recent studies have emphasized the importance of determining the damage initiation point (DIP) of depth-damage functions, where the flood damage is assumed to initiate with respect to the first-floor height of the building. Here we investigate the effects of DIP selection on the flood risk assessment of buildings located in Special Flood Hazard Areas. We characterize flood using the Gumbel extreme value distribution’s location (μ) and scale (α) parameters. Results reveal that average annual flood loss (AAL) values do not depend on μ, but instead follow an exponential decay pattern with α when damage initiates below the first-floor height of a building (i.e., negative DIP). A linear increasing pattern of the AAL with α is achieved by changing the DIP to the first-floor height (i.e., DIP = 0). The study also demonstrates that negative DIPs have larger associated AAL, thus contributing substantially to the overall AAL, compared to positive DIPs. The study underscores the significance of proper DIP selection in flood risk assessment.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00004-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140819059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-04DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00005-y
Ji-Eun Byun, Sang-ri Yi
Multiple authorities have introduced an anti-price-gouging law to prevent sellers from raising prices higher than what is considered reasonable. Effectiveness of the law has been heatedly debated in various disciplines such as economics, ethics and politics. In this article, we investigate its effectiveness by developing a model that simulates a post-earthquake situation and apply the model to San Francisco, CA, USA. The model accounts for various competing forces, i.e. post-disaster increase in production cost and demands, assets damage, donation and hoarding. Thereby, it returns multiple decision metrics, i.e. unfulfilled needs in basic goods, repair periods and well-being loss caused by insufficient supplies and increased prices. The result shows that the optimal level of a price cap depends on a decision metric and local conditions. This indicates that the problem does not have a single optimal decision, but rather a compromise needs to be made between conflicting decision metrics. Generalising this observation, we propose a narrative numeric (NN) method as a new social discourse method. The objective of the NN method does not lie in concluding the most truthful argument, but rather in identifying a decision scenario that yields an agreeable compromise to (hopefully) all stakeholder groups.
{"title":"Anti-price-gouging law is neither good nor bad in itself: a proposal of narrative numeric method for transdisciplinary social discourses","authors":"Ji-Eun Byun, Sang-ri Yi","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00005-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00005-y","url":null,"abstract":"Multiple authorities have introduced an anti-price-gouging law to prevent sellers from raising prices higher than what is considered reasonable. Effectiveness of the law has been heatedly debated in various disciplines such as economics, ethics and politics. In this article, we investigate its effectiveness by developing a model that simulates a post-earthquake situation and apply the model to San Francisco, CA, USA. The model accounts for various competing forces, i.e. post-disaster increase in production cost and demands, assets damage, donation and hoarding. Thereby, it returns multiple decision metrics, i.e. unfulfilled needs in basic goods, repair periods and well-being loss caused by insufficient supplies and increased prices. The result shows that the optimal level of a price cap depends on a decision metric and local conditions. This indicates that the problem does not have a single optimal decision, but rather a compromise needs to be made between conflicting decision metrics. Generalising this observation, we propose a narrative numeric (NN) method as a new social discourse method. The objective of the NN method does not lie in concluding the most truthful argument, but rather in identifying a decision scenario that yields an agreeable compromise to (hopefully) all stakeholder groups.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00005-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140345845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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