Pub Date : 2024-08-01DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00016-9
Trang Minh Duong, Remi Meynadier, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Johan Reyns, Arjen Luijendijk, Janaka Bamunawala
Coastal flooding is projected to become more severe over the 21st century, necessitating effective adaptation, which in turn requires detailed local scale information that can only be provided by detailed numerical modelling. The current lack of information on flood protection measures and the high resource requirements of traditional hydrodynamic models presents concurrent challenges for detailed coastal flood modelling. But how comprehensive do the representation of coastal flood defences and hydrodynamic forcing need to be for adequately accurate modelling of coastal flooding? Here, we attempt to answer this question through strategic numerical simulations of the flooding that occurred at Île de Ré (France) during the Xynthia storm (2010), using the flexible mesh model Delft3D FM, with an over-land grid resolution of ~10 m. The model is validated against the flood extents observed in Île de Ré during Xynthia. We use three levels of detail in flood defence representation: a 5 m resolution DEM (i.e. base case DEM), the same 5 m DEM augmented with defences extracted from a 1 m DEM and Google Earth images (i.e. moderately augmented DEM), and the moderately augmented DEM further augmented with in-situ measurements of flood defences (i.e. highly augmented DEM). Simulations with these three DEMs are performed with and without flow-wave coupling (thus, 6 simulations in total), and results are analysed in terms of four flood indicators: maximum flood depths, flood extents, flood current velocities and flood damages. Our analysis indicates that both detailed representation of flood defences and the inclusion of waves have substantial effects on coastal flood modelling at local scale, with the former having a more pronounced effect. The return on the investment in implementing highly detailed in-situ measurements to represent flood defences appears to be low in this case, and adequately accurate results are obtained with a moderately augmented DEM. The combined effect of using the moderately augmented DEM together with waves, relative to using the base case DEM without waves, is to decrease maximum flood depths (up to 2 m), flood extent (by ~10%), maximum current velocities (in ~50% flooded area) and total flood damage (by ~27% or ~€ 188 million).
据预测，21 世纪的沿海洪水将变得更加严重，因此必须采取有效的适应措施，而这反过来 又需要详细的地方尺度信息，只有详细的数值模拟才能提供这些信息。目前，由于缺乏防洪措施方面的信息，而传统的流体力学模型又需要大量的资源，因此，详细的沿岸洪水模拟同时也面临着挑战。但是，要充分准确地模拟沿岸洪水，需要多全面地反映沿岸防洪和水动力强迫呢？在这里，我们试图通过对 Xynthia 风暴期间（2010 年）发生在法国雷岛的洪水进行战略数值模拟来回答这个问题，模拟采用了柔性网格模型 Delft3D FM，陆上网格分辨率约为 10 米。该模型根据 Xynthia 期间在雷岛观测到的洪水范围进行了验证。我们在洪水防御表示中使用了三种详细程度：5 米分辨率的 DEM（即基本情况 DEM）、用从 1 米 DEM 和谷歌地球图像中提取的防御数据增强的相同 5 米 DEM（即适度增强 DEM），以及用现场洪水防御测量数据进一步增强的适度增强 DEM（即高度增强 DEM）。使用这三种 DEM 进行了有流波耦合和无流波耦合的模拟（因此，共进行了 6 次模拟），并根据四项洪水指标对结果进行了分析：最大洪水深度、洪水范围、洪水流速和洪水损失。我们的分析表明，对防洪设施的详细描述和波浪的加入都会对局部尺度的沿岸洪水模 拟产生重大影响，而前者的影响更为明显。在这种情况下，采用非常详细的原位测量来表示洪水防御工事的投资回报率似乎很低， 而采用适度增强的 DEM 可以得到足够精确的结果。与使用不带波浪的基础 DEM 相比，使用带波浪的适度增强 DEM 的综合效果是减少最大洪水深度（达 2 米）、洪水范围（减少约 10%）、最大流速（约 50% 的洪水淹没区）和洪水损失总量（减少约 27% 或约 1.88 亿欧元）。
{"title":"On detailed representation of flood defences and flow-wave coupling in coastal flood modelling","authors":"Trang Minh Duong, Remi Meynadier, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Johan Reyns, Arjen Luijendijk, Janaka Bamunawala","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00016-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00016-9","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal flooding is projected to become more severe over the 21st century, necessitating effective adaptation, which in turn requires detailed local scale information that can only be provided by detailed numerical modelling. The current lack of information on flood protection measures and the high resource requirements of traditional hydrodynamic models presents concurrent challenges for detailed coastal flood modelling. But how comprehensive do the representation of coastal flood defences and hydrodynamic forcing need to be for adequately accurate modelling of coastal flooding? Here, we attempt to answer this question through strategic numerical simulations of the flooding that occurred at Île de Ré (France) during the Xynthia storm (2010), using the flexible mesh model Delft3D FM, with an over-land grid resolution of ~10 m. The model is validated against the flood extents observed in Île de Ré during Xynthia. We use three levels of detail in flood defence representation: a 5 m resolution DEM (i.e. base case DEM), the same 5 m DEM augmented with defences extracted from a 1 m DEM and Google Earth images (i.e. moderately augmented DEM), and the moderately augmented DEM further augmented with in-situ measurements of flood defences (i.e. highly augmented DEM). Simulations with these three DEMs are performed with and without flow-wave coupling (thus, 6 simulations in total), and results are analysed in terms of four flood indicators: maximum flood depths, flood extents, flood current velocities and flood damages. Our analysis indicates that both detailed representation of flood defences and the inclusion of waves have substantial effects on coastal flood modelling at local scale, with the former having a more pronounced effect. The return on the investment in implementing highly detailed in-situ measurements to represent flood defences appears to be low in this case, and adequately accurate results are obtained with a moderately augmented DEM. The combined effect of using the moderately augmented DEM together with waves, relative to using the base case DEM without waves, is to decrease maximum flood depths (up to 2 m), flood extent (by ~10%), maximum current velocities (in ~50% flooded area) and total flood damage (by ~27% or ~€ 188 million).","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00016-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-19DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00024-9
Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker
{"title":"Author Correction: Assessing the myth of disaster risk reduction in the wake of catastrophic floods","authors":"Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00024-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00024-9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-1"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00024-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141730397","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00013-y
Ravi Ranjan, Subhankar Karmakar
India is the worst affected region in the world by tropical cyclones (TCs), causing an average 2% annual GDP loss. TCs instigate many other natural hazards that have a compounding effect on the adversely affected population and present significant challenges to the resilience of emergency response systems and infrastructure. Hence, any risk assessment on TC is inherently multivariate/compound in nature. This study investigates co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes during TCs across India (1979–2020) using a novel quasi-Lagrangian approach, focusing on location-specific hazards. Eastern coastal states and adjacent inland areas experience the highest frequency (≥10 cyclones in 40 years) of concurrent extremes (wind gusts ≥ 16 m/s and rainfall ≥ 18 mm/h). Whereas duration-wise, the eastern coastal states and Gujarat state experience frequent concurrent extremes lasting more than a day annually, with the Krishna–Godavari delta region particularly vulnerable to highly severe events (duration of concurrent extremes ≥ 24 h). This study provides a high-resolution cartographic product of compound hazard from TC-induced extremes for the first time over the entire India, highlighting regional heterogeneity and aiding targeted national-level risk mitigation and adaptation planning.
{"title":"Compound hazard mapping for tropical cyclone-induced concurrent wind and rainfall extremes over India","authors":"Ravi Ranjan, Subhankar Karmakar","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00013-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00013-y","url":null,"abstract":"India is the worst affected region in the world by tropical cyclones (TCs), causing an average 2% annual GDP loss. TCs instigate many other natural hazards that have a compounding effect on the adversely affected population and present significant challenges to the resilience of emergency response systems and infrastructure. Hence, any risk assessment on TC is inherently multivariate/compound in nature. This study investigates co-occurring wind and rainfall extremes during TCs across India (1979–2020) using a novel quasi-Lagrangian approach, focusing on location-specific hazards. Eastern coastal states and adjacent inland areas experience the highest frequency (≥10 cyclones in 40 years) of concurrent extremes (wind gusts ≥ 16 m/s and rainfall ≥ 18 mm/h). Whereas duration-wise, the eastern coastal states and Gujarat state experience frequent concurrent extremes lasting more than a day annually, with the Krishna–Godavari delta region particularly vulnerable to highly severe events (duration of concurrent extremes ≥ 24 h). This study provides a high-resolution cartographic product of compound hazard from TC-induced extremes for the first time over the entire India, highlighting regional heterogeneity and aiding targeted national-level risk mitigation and adaptation planning.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00013-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-07-01DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00014-x
Amy McGovern, Julie Demuth, Ann Bostrom, Christopher D. Wirz, Philippe E. Tissot, Mariana G. Cains, Kate D. Musgrave
Artificial Intelligence applications are rapidly expanding across weather, climate, and natural hazards. AI can be used to assist with forecasting weather and climate risks, including forecasting both the chance that a hazard will occur and the negative impacts from it, which means AI can help protect lives, property, and livelihoods on a global scale in our changing climate. To ensure that we are achieving this goal, the AI must be developed to be trustworthy, which is a complex and multifaceted undertaking. We present our work from the NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), where we are taking a convergence research approach. Our work deeply integrates across AI, environmental, and risk communication sciences. This involves collaboration with professional end-users to investigate how they assess the trustworthiness and usefulness of AI methods for forecasting natural hazards. In turn, we use this knowledge to develop AI that is more trustworthy. We discuss how and why end-users may trust or distrust AI methods for multiple natural hazards, including winter weather, tropical cyclones, severe storms, and coastal oceanography.
人工智能的应用正在天气、气候和自然灾害领域迅速扩展。人工智能可用于协助预测天气和气候风险，包括预测灾害发生的几率及其负面影响，这意味着在不断变化的气候中，人工智能可在全球范围内帮助保护生命、财产和生计。为确保实现这一目标，我们必须开发出值得信赖的人工智能，这是一项复杂而多方面的工作。我们将介绍美国国家科学基金会人工智能研究所（NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography，AI2ES）在天气、气候和沿海海洋学领域值得信赖的人工智能（AI2ES）方面所做的工作。我们的工作深度融合了人工智能、环境和风险交流科学。这包括与专业终端用户合作，调查他们如何评估人工智能方法在预测自然灾害方面的可信度和实用性。反过来，我们利用这些知识来开发更值得信赖的人工智能。我们将讨论终端用户如何以及为什么会信任或不信任人工智能方法来预测多种自然灾害，包括冬季天气、热带气旋、强风暴和沿岸海洋学。
{"title":"The value of convergence research for developing trustworthy AI for weather, climate, and ocean hazards","authors":"Amy McGovern, Julie Demuth, Ann Bostrom, Christopher D. Wirz, Philippe E. Tissot, Mariana G. Cains, Kate D. Musgrave","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00014-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00014-x","url":null,"abstract":"Artificial Intelligence applications are rapidly expanding across weather, climate, and natural hazards. AI can be used to assist with forecasting weather and climate risks, including forecasting both the chance that a hazard will occur and the negative impacts from it, which means AI can help protect lives, property, and livelihoods on a global scale in our changing climate. To ensure that we are achieving this goal, the AI must be developed to be trustworthy, which is a complex and multifaceted undertaking. We present our work from the NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography (AI2ES), where we are taking a convergence research approach. Our work deeply integrates across AI, environmental, and risk communication sciences. This involves collaboration with professional end-users to investigate how they assess the trustworthiness and usefulness of AI methods for forecasting natural hazards. In turn, we use this knowledge to develop AI that is more trustworthy. We discuss how and why end-users may trust or distrust AI methods for multiple natural hazards, including winter weather, tropical cyclones, severe storms, and coastal oceanography.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-6"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00014-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141489063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-19DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6
Stephen M. Strader, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley, Amanda N. Wagner
Tornado risk, as determined by the occurrence of atmospheric conditions that support tornado incidence, has exhibited robust spatial trends in the United States Southern Plains and Mid-South during recent decades. The consequences of these risk changes have not been fully explored, especially in conjunction with growing societal vulnerability. Herein, we assess how changes in risk and vulnerability over the last 40 years have collectively and individually altered tornado-housing impact potential. Results indicate that escalating vulnerability and exposure have outweighed the effects of spatially changing risk. However, the combination of increasing risk and exposure has led to a threefold increase in Mid-South housing exposure since 1980. Though Southern Plains tornado risk has decreased since 1980, amplifying exposure has led to more than a 50% increase in mean annual tornado-housing impact potential across the region. Stakeholders should use these findings to develop more holistic mitigation and resilience-building strategies that consider a dynamically changing tornado disaster landscape.
{"title":"Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential","authors":"Stephen M. Strader, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley, Amanda N. Wagner","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6","url":null,"abstract":"Tornado risk, as determined by the occurrence of atmospheric conditions that support tornado incidence, has exhibited robust spatial trends in the United States Southern Plains and Mid-South during recent decades. The consequences of these risk changes have not been fully explored, especially in conjunction with growing societal vulnerability. Herein, we assess how changes in risk and vulnerability over the last 40 years have collectively and individually altered tornado-housing impact potential. Results indicate that escalating vulnerability and exposure have outweighed the effects of spatially changing risk. However, the combination of increasing risk and exposure has led to a threefold increase in Mid-South housing exposure since 1980. Though Southern Plains tornado risk has decreased since 1980, amplifying exposure has led to more than a 50% increase in mean annual tornado-housing impact potential across the region. Stakeholders should use these findings to develop more holistic mitigation and resilience-building strategies that consider a dynamically changing tornado disaster landscape.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00019-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141430333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-07DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8
Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley
Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.
{"title":"Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows","authors":"Matthew A. Thomas, Allison C. Michaelis, Nina S. Oakley, Jason W. Kean, Victor A. Gensini, Walker S. Ashley","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00017-8","url":null,"abstract":"Short-duration, high-intensity rainfall can initiate deadly and destructive debris flows after wildfire. Methods to estimate the conditions that can trigger debris flows exist and guidance to determine how often those thresholds will be exceeded under the present climate are available. However, the limited spatiotemporal resolution of climate models has hampered efforts to characterize how rainfall intensification driven by global warming may affect debris-flow hazards. We use novel, dynamically downscaled (3.75-km), convection-permitting simulations of short-duration (15-min) rainfall to evaluate threshold exceedance for late 21st-century climate scenarios in the American Southwest. We observe significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of exceedances for regions dominated by cool- and warm-season rainfall. We also observe an increased frequency of exceedance in regions where postfire debris flows have not been documented, and communities are unaccustomed to the hazard. Our findings can inform planning efforts to increase resiliency to debris flows under a changing climate.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00017-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141292658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w
Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker
Whether disasters serve as focusing events leading to measures that reduce future disaster risks is contested. Here, we study flood disasters in 23 of the world’s most flood-prone countries to assess whether catastrophic floods, those milestone events with the highest fatalities, have been followed by decreasing mortality in subsequent floods. Results from a trend analysis, controlling for flood magnitude and subtypes, find that reductions in mortality rates have rarely followed the most devastating floods.
{"title":"Assessing the myth of disaster risk reduction in the wake of catastrophic floods","authors":"Daniel Nohrstedt, Elena Mondino, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Charles F. Parker","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00007-w","url":null,"abstract":"Whether disasters serve as focusing events leading to measures that reduce future disaster risks is contested. Here, we study flood disasters in 23 of the world’s most flood-prone countries to assess whether catastrophic floods, those milestone events with the highest fatalities, have been followed by decreasing mortality in subsequent floods. Results from a trend analysis, controlling for flood magnitude and subtypes, find that reductions in mortality rates have rarely followed the most devastating floods.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-5"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00007-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8
José Mantovani, Enner Alcântara, Luana A. Pampuch, Cheila Flávia Praga Baião, Edward Park, Maria Souza Custódio, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo
This analysis delves into precipitation dynamics in the Bacia Taquari Antas region, with a focus on September 2023. Employing a multi-scale approach encompassing monthly, daily, and subdaily analyses, the study unveils a consistent precipitation distribution throughout the year. September 2023’s anomaly, the second-highest in the dataset, prompts investigation into potential climatic variability. Notably, the daily analysis highlights September 4th, 2023, as significant, emphasizing the importance of historical context in evaluating weather event severity. Subdaily scrutiny of September 4th reveals intense, localized precipitation, raising concerns about hydrological impacts such as flash floods. Positive trends in Rx5day (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and R25 (number of days in a year when precipitation exceeds 25 mm) indices indicate an increase in heavy precipitation events, aligning with broader climate change concerns. Shifting focus to flood extent and impact assessment in the Taquari-Antas Basin, a simulation model depicts the temporal evolution of the flood, reaching its peak on September 4th. Examination of affected areas, rainfall volumes, and impacts on census sectors, cities, and buildings furnishes critical data for disaster management. This study contributes to localized precipitation comprehension and broader issues of climate trends, flood risk evaluation, and urban vulnerability, providing a basis for informed decision-making and resilient planning strategies.
{"title":"Assessing flood risks in the Taquari-Antas Basin (Southeast Brazil) during the September 2023 extreme rainfall surge","authors":"José Mantovani, Enner Alcântara, Luana A. Pampuch, Cheila Flávia Praga Baião, Edward Park, Maria Souza Custódio, Luiz Felippe Gozzo, Cassiano Antonio Bortolozo","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00009-8","url":null,"abstract":"This analysis delves into precipitation dynamics in the Bacia Taquari Antas region, with a focus on September 2023. Employing a multi-scale approach encompassing monthly, daily, and subdaily analyses, the study unveils a consistent precipitation distribution throughout the year. September 2023’s anomaly, the second-highest in the dataset, prompts investigation into potential climatic variability. Notably, the daily analysis highlights September 4th, 2023, as significant, emphasizing the importance of historical context in evaluating weather event severity. Subdaily scrutiny of September 4th reveals intense, localized precipitation, raising concerns about hydrological impacts such as flash floods. Positive trends in Rx5day (maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount) and R25 (number of days in a year when precipitation exceeds 25 mm) indices indicate an increase in heavy precipitation events, aligning with broader climate change concerns. Shifting focus to flood extent and impact assessment in the Taquari-Antas Basin, a simulation model depicts the temporal evolution of the flood, reaching its peak on September 4th. Examination of affected areas, rainfall volumes, and impacts on census sectors, cities, and buildings furnishes critical data for disaster management. This study contributes to localized precipitation comprehension and broader issues of climate trends, flood risk evaluation, and urban vulnerability, providing a basis for informed decision-making and resilient planning strategies.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00009-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141246203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-06-03DOI: 10.1038/s44304-024-00010-1
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Dirk Eilander, Philip J. Ward, Sanne Muis
Coastal flooding resulting from tropical cyclones can have large repercussions in many low-lying regions around the world. Accurate flood risk assessments are crucial for designing measures to reduce the societal impacts of coastal flooding. At continental to global scales, however, traditional flood risk assessments mostly use methods that do not capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of coastal flood risk patterns. In this study, we address these deficiencies by applying a novel modelling framework that dynamically simulates stochastic coastal flood risk for the east coast of Africa. Using 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclones and a cascade of hydrodynamic models to simulate storm tides and flooding, we calculate the damage of each individual tropical cyclone event and empirically derive the risk curve for each country. Results show that the largest aggregated annual losses in the region come from multiple events rather than from a single low-probability event. Results also reveal that events with the highest return periods in terms of storm surge residual levels and flood extents are not necessarily the most damaging events. Here, the 1 in 10,000-year damage event is associated with a 1 in 45-year event in terms of flood extent, showing that addressing exposure and vulnerability is essential in determining risk. Our modelling framework enables a high-resolution continental-scale risk analysis that takes the spatial dependencies of flood events into account.
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