Electric Power Systems Research最新文献_第3页

Modeling multidimensional spatiotemporal and abrupt dynamics in wind power outputs with a hybrid intelligent approach 基于混合智能方法的风电输出多维时空突变动态建模

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112793

Chenghao Wang , Gengyang Lu , Yun Chen

With the rapid expansion of offshore wind power installations, accurate power output forecasting has become essential for maintaining the supply‒demand balance of power systems and reducing the incurred operational costs. However, the offshore wind power generation process is highly nonlinear and volatile, as it is dynamically influenced by multiple coupled factors. To address these challenges, a hybrid output forecasting model for offshore wind power is proposed in this study. By integrating a convolutional neural network (CNN), a gated recurrent unit (GRU), and self-attention (SA), the model effectively captures spatial features, temporal dependencies, and global correlations across key time steps from multivariate time series data. Furthermore, the beluga whale optimization (BWO) algorithm is employed to adaptively tune the hyperparameters of the model. The results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms single models and other hybrid models in terms of forecasting accuracy. Compared with other optimization algorithms, the BWO algorithm possesses superior global search capabilities. In the experiments conducted in this study, the proposed algorithm converges rapidly to high-quality parameter configurations, which significantly improves its computational efficiency. Moreover, in generalization tests across implemented four different wind farms, the model consistently achieves R² scores exceeding 0.9737, confirming its strong cross-scenario applicability.

随着海上风电装机规模的迅速扩大，准确的输出功率预测对于维持电力系统的供需平衡和降低运行成本至关重要。然而，海上风力发电过程是高度非线性和不稳定的，受到多种耦合因素的动态影响。为了解决这些问题，本文提出了一种海上风电混合输出预测模型。通过集成卷积神经网络（CNN）、门控循环单元（GRU）和自关注（SA），该模型有效地捕获了多变量时间序列数据中关键时间步的空间特征、时间依赖性和全局相关性。在此基础上，采用白鲸优化算法对模型的超参数进行自适应调整。结果表明，该模型在预测精度上明显优于单一模型和其他混合模型。与其他优化算法相比，BWO算法具有更强的全局搜索能力。在本研究的实验中，该算法快速收敛到高质量的参数配置，显著提高了算法的计算效率。此外，在实施的4个不同风电场的泛化测试中，模型的R²得分均超过0.9737，证实了模型具有较强的跨场景适用性。

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引用次数: 0

Optimization of corona ring design dimensions for extra high-voltage substation bus post insulators using a linear regression approach 用线性回归方法优化特高压变电站母线杆绝缘子电晕环设计尺寸

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112814

M.Raja Nayak , G. Radhika , M. Saritha , Prabhakara Sharma Pidatala , Pradeep Panthagani , B. Devulal , Harish Sesham

This study introduces an advanced approach for predicting the optimal dimensions of corona rings in bus post insulators using computational simulations combined with linear regression techniques. Accurate corona ring design is essential to manage this severe electric field stress failing which may lead to insulation failures, energy losses, and decreased system reliability. Although, existing system follow consistent corona ring dimension configuration, further optimization includes abating field stress with reducing ring material size empowers cost effective reliable operation. Thus, optimization of ring dimensions using actual testing approach solely results in expensive choice, while computational simulation-based testing approach aids in arriving optimal ring design dimensions. The goal of this research is to develop empirical relation in systematic approach include sophisticated linear regression machine learning approach to predict the accurate optimal dimensions of corona rings across various voltage levels. Initially, the study employs the precise Boundary Element Method (BEM) in COULOMB 3D software to simulate electric field stress for 400 kV and 765 kV bus post insulators using industry provided design dimensions and arrives optimal ring dimension configuration from multiple case studies. To the optimal ring dimension data generated from these simulations forms the basis for creating a linear regression model. This linear regression model is then applied to predict the corona ring dimensions for further 1200 kV insulators and validated with same 1200 kV BEM simulation data. The key findings underscore the potential of proposed linear regression method to offer scalable, cost-effective solutions for optimizing corona ring dimensions.

本文介绍了一种利用计算模拟结合线性回归技术预测母线柱绝缘子电晕环最佳尺寸的先进方法。精确的电晕环设计对于控制严重的电场应力失效至关重要，电场应力失效可能导致绝缘失效、能量损失和系统可靠性降低。虽然现有系统遵循一致的电晕环尺寸配置，但进一步的优化包括通过减小环材料尺寸来降低应力场，从而实现经济有效的可靠运行。因此，使用实际测试方法来优化环的尺寸只会导致昂贵的选择，而基于计算模拟的测试方法有助于获得最佳的环设计尺寸。本研究的目的是在系统方法中建立经验关系，包括复杂的线性回归机器学习方法，以预测不同电压水平下电晕环的准确最佳尺寸。首先，该研究采用COULOMB 3D软件中的精确边界元法（BEM），利用行业提供的设计尺寸模拟了400 kV和765 kV母线杆绝缘子的电场应力，并通过多个案例研究得出了最佳环尺寸配置。从这些模拟中生成的最佳环尺寸数据构成了创建线性回归模型的基础。然后将该线性回归模型应用于预测进一步的1200kv绝缘子的电晕环尺寸，并使用相同的1200kv BEM模拟数据进行验证。这些关键发现强调了线性回归方法的潜力，为优化电晕环尺寸提供了可扩展的、经济有效的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Distributed economic dispatch for islanded microgrids under asynchronous and random communication conditions 异步随机通信条件下孤岛微电网的分布式经济调度

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112823

Wei Sun, Mengjie Ding, Lei Huang, Qiyue Li, Weitao Li

In islanded microgrids, the shared communication channel among multiple nodes introduces inherent randomness and asynchrony, which can severely impair the convergence of conventional distributed dispatch algorithms. To overcome these challenges, this paper proposes an asynchronous distributed optimization framework that guarantees reliable convergence under such uncertain communication conditions. First, to accurately capture the random nature of the communication process, the network is modeled as an asynchronous randomly time-varying directed graph. Based on this model, a state-offset-based asynchronous consensus algorithm is developed, enabling each agent to update its local control immediately upon receiving new information without relying on global synchronization. A key feature of the proposed algorithm is the introduction of an auxiliary variable that records state offsets during asynchronous updates, thereby enhancing the system’s fault tolerance and ensuring coordinated optimization across agents. Subsequently, a rigorous theoretical analysis is conducted to establish the convergence, stability, and feasibility of the proposed method. Finally, simulation results validate the effectiveness and robustness of the algorithm under asynchronous and random communication conditions, while also demonstrating stable performance in the presence of dynamic load variations.

在孤岛微电网中，多节点间的共享通信信道引入了固有的随机性和非同步性，严重影响了传统分布式调度算法的收敛性。为了克服这些挑战，本文提出了一种异步分布式优化框架，保证了在这种不确定通信条件下的可靠收敛。首先，为了准确捕捉通信过程的随机性，将网络建模为异步随机时变有向图。在此模型的基础上，提出了一种基于状态偏移的异步共识算法，使每个agent在接收到新信息后能够立即更新其本地控制，而无需依赖全局同步。该算法的一个关键特征是引入了一个辅助变量，用于记录异步更新期间的状态偏移，从而增强了系统的容错性并确保跨代理的协调优化。随后进行了严格的理论分析，证明了该方法的收敛性、稳定性和可行性。最后，仿真结果验证了该算法在异步和随机通信条件下的有效性和鲁棒性，同时也证明了该算法在动态负载变化下的稳定性能。

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引用次数: 0

Optimized approach for wind turbine anomaly detection: integrating uncertainty quantification and dimensionality reduction 风力发电机异常检测的优化方法：综合不确定性量化和降维

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112818

Shaoheng Lan , Haibin Li , Dongsheng Li , Changchun Bao , Shufeng Lu

Accurate anomaly detection in wind turbines is critical for operational stability, yet existing methods are hindered by a persistent trade-off among uncertainty quantification, high-dimensional complexity, and computational efficiency, a challenge termed the "Anomaly Detection Trilemma". To resolve this, we propose a novel Bayesian-refined Random Forest (BPRF) model featuring a synergistic three-stage architecture. The framework first employs a Bayesian module to generate a probabilistic feature, then uses a Random Forest as a non-linear amplifier to map data into a high-dimensional space, and finally applies Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to distill a robust low-dimensional "normalcy" subspace for anomaly scoring. Validated on a real-world public dataset, the BPRF model demonstrated superior performance over a comprehensive set of mainstream baselines, achieving a leading F1-score of 0.59, an accuracy of 0.87, and an AUC of 0.86. The results confirm that the BPRF model effectively escapes the "Anomaly Detection Trilemma", providing a solution that is not only accurate but also reliable and computationally tractable, thereby establishing a new performance benchmark for practical industrial deployment.

准确的异常检测对风力涡轮机的运行稳定性至关重要，但现有的方法受到不确定性量化、高维复杂性和计算效率之间持续权衡的阻碍，这一挑战被称为“异常检测三难困境”。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了一种新的贝叶斯改进随机森林（BPRF）模型，该模型具有协同的三阶段架构。该框架首先使用贝叶斯模块生成概率特征，然后使用随机森林作为非线性放大器将数据映射到高维空间，最后应用主成分分析（PCA）提取鲁棒的低维“正态”子空间进行异常评分。在一个真实世界的公共数据集上验证，BPRF模型在一组全面的主流基线上表现出了优越的性能，达到了领先的f1得分0.59，准确率0.87,AUC 0.86。结果证实，BPRF模型有效地摆脱了“异常检测三难困境”，提供了一种既准确又可靠、计算易于处理的解决方案，从而为实际工业部署建立了新的性能基准。

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引用次数: 0

A three-stage active injection and feature-fusion single-ended fault location method with protection adaptability for ring-type flexible dc distribution networks 一种具有保护适应性的环型柔性直流配电网三级主动注入特征融合单端故障定位方法

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112826

Xingxing Dong , Xiaoyang Tong , Hao Wu

To address the problems of ambiguous fault line boundaries, limited feature extraction, and poor adaptability to varying operating conditions in single‐ended fault location methods for multi‐terminal ring‐type flexible DC distribution networks, this paper proposes a three‐stage feature‐fusion single‐ended fault location method based on active injection using an ISOP-DAB converter. Two post-protection scenarios are considered: protection success and protection failure. DC and sinusoidal signals at different frequencies are injected to obtain multi-frequency impedance values, which are then matched with theoretical impedances to identify the fault line. When protection fails, a multi‐stage active injection strategy combining DC injection, sinusoidal injection, and capacitor discharge is adopted, while the UKF+TTAO-VMD+LS hybrid algorithm is employed to preprocess current signals. The EWM is further introduced to perform weighted fusion of the location results from the three stages, thereby determining the final fault information. Simulation results show that the proposed method requires no multi-terminal communication or additional injection equipment, eliminates the single-ended dead-zone problem in ring networks, and keeps fault location error under 1 % across various conditions, confirming its high accuracy and robust performance.

针对多端环型柔性直流配电网单端故障定位方法存在的故障线边界模糊、特征提取有限、对工况变化适应性差等问题，提出了一种基于ISOP-DAB变换器的主动注入的三级特征融合单端故障定位方法。保护后分为保护成功和保护失败两种场景。注入不同频率的直流和正弦信号，得到多频阻抗值，然后与理论阻抗匹配，识别故障线路。当保护失效时，采用直流注入、正弦注入和电容放电相结合的多级主动注入策略，同时采用UKF+TTAO-VMD+LS混合算法对电流信号进行预处理。进一步引入EWM对三个阶段的定位结果进行加权融合，从而确定最终的故障信息。仿真结果表明，该方法不需要多端通信和额外的注入设备，消除了环形网络中的单端死区问题，在各种情况下故障定位误差都保持在1%以内，具有较高的精度和鲁棒性。

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引用次数: 0

A coordinated hierarchical frequency control strategy for islanded microgrid using multiple flexibility resources 基于多柔性资源的孤岛微电网协调分层频率控制策略

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112820

Xijin Yang, Qinfen Lu

To address the stringent dual requirements for frequency stability and operational economy in island microgrids under source-load uncertainties, this paper proposes a hierarchical coordinated frequency control strategy with incorporating economic dispatch. In the primary frequency control stage, a Sigmoid function-based adaptive Virtual Synchronous Generator (VSG) control is proposed. This method adjusts the virtual damping in real-time to enhance the dynamic response capability of renewable energy sources (RES). In the secondary frequency control stage, a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework integrating an economic cost function is constructed to achieve the deep integration of frequency restoration and optimal power allocation. Simulation results in Matlab/Simulink demonstrate that the load response rate of RES in the primary control stage increases by over 280 %. In the secondary control stage, the RES response rate reaches approximately 34 %, and the comprehensive cumulative generation cost is reduced by about 73.9 %. Furthermore, the change rate of frequency deviation remains at the order of magnitude of

1 0^{- 6}

under system parameter perturbations, which verifying the robustness of the proposed strategy.

针对源负荷不确定条件下孤岛微电网对频率稳定性和运行经济性的双重要求，提出了一种包含经济调度的分层协调频率控制策略。在主频率控制阶段，提出了一种基于Sigmoid函数的自适应虚拟同步发电机（VSG）控制方法。该方法实时调节虚拟阻尼，提高可再生能源的动态响应能力。在二次频率控制阶段，构建了集成经济成本函数的模型预测控制（MPC）框架，实现频率恢复与最优功率分配的深度融合。在Matlab/Simulink中的仿真结果表明，在初始控制阶段，RES的负载响应率提高了280%以上。在二次控制阶段，可再生能源响应率达到约34%，综合累计发电成本降低约73.9%。此外，在系统参数扰动下，频率偏差的变化率保持在10−6数量级，验证了所提策略的鲁棒性。

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引用次数: 0

Probabilistic analysis of electricity load forecasting errors 电力负荷预测误差的概率分析

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112807

Eduardo Caro, Jesús Juan

Accuracy metrics such as MAE, RMSE and WAPE are widely used to evaluate forecasting models in energy systems, yet they are commonly interpreted as fixed values despite being computed from stochastic, temporally correlated errors. This practice leads to an underestimation of the statistical variability and sampling dispersion of these accuracy metrics.

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework for analyzing accuracy metrics under temporal dependence. Using Taylor-based approximations and the covariance structure of dependent errors, we derive closed-form expressions for the mean and variance of MAE and WAPE. Two practical methods for constructing confidence intervals are proposed: (i) a theoretical approach based on the autocorrelation function of absolute errors, and (ii) an aggregation-based method that reduces short-term dependence through weekly averaging.

Monte Carlo simulations validate the proposed intervals and quantify the impact of different dependence patterns. A ten-year case study of hourly electricity demand in Spain shows that standard methods underestimate error variability, while the proposed ones correctly detect significant changes in forecast performance.

准确性指标如MAE、RMSE和WAPE被广泛用于评估能源系统的预测模型，尽管它们是从随机的、时间相关的误差中计算出来的，但它们通常被解释为固定值。这种做法导致了对这些精度度量的统计可变性和抽样离散性的低估。本文介绍了一种概率框架，用于分析具有时间依赖性的精度度量。利用基于泰勒的近似和相关误差的协方差结构，导出了MAE和WAPE的均值和方差的封闭表达式。本文提出了构建置信区间的两种实用方法：(1)基于绝对误差自相关函数的理论方法；(2)通过周平均减少短期依赖的基于聚合的方法。蒙特卡罗模拟验证了所提出的间隔，并量化了不同依赖模式的影响。一项关于西班牙每小时电力需求的十年案例研究表明，标准方法低估了误差变异性，而建议的方法正确地检测到预测性能的重大变化。

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引用次数: 0

SVC-assisted power factor optimization: A dual-benefit strategy for grid efficiency and pipeline integrity management svc辅助功率因数优化：电网效率和管道完整性管理的双重效益策略

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112819

M’hamed Ouadah , Omar Touhami , Rachid Ibtiouen , Ahlem Chahinez Kadri , Sofiane Chabane

This study pioneers a proactive source-control strategy for mitigating electromagnetic interference (EMI) on buried pipelines through Static Var Compensator (SVC)-assisted power factor optimization of adjacent high-voltage transmission lines. An integrated framework couples electromagnetic modeling with electrochemical validation, establishing a quantitative correlation between induced current density (J_ind) and corrosion rates of API X70 steel (0.119→0.404 mm/year as J_ind increases 0→200 A/m²). For a 400 kV, 900 MW transmission line, the iterative optimization algorithm achieves an optimal power factor of 0.966, reducing J_ind from 24.14 to 19.99 A/m² maintaining compliance with the 20 A/m² safety thresho ldwhile simultaneously providing 434 MVAR reactive power savings. These results demonstrate three key contributions: (1) a novel cross-infrastructure application of SVC technology beyond traditional economic optimization, (2) a validated quantitative J_ind -corrosion relationship enabling risk assessment, and (3) a dual-benefit solution that enhances grid efficiency while safeguarding pipeline integrity in shared energy corridors.

本研究率先提出了一种主动源控制策略，通过静态无功补偿器（SVC）辅助的相邻高压输电线路功率因数优化，减轻埋地管道上的电磁干扰（EMI）。一个集成的框架将电磁建模与电化学验证相结合，建立了API X70钢的感应电流密度（Jind）与腐蚀速率之间的定量相关性（当Jind增加0→200 a /m²时，为0.119→0.404 mm/年）。对于400kv， 900mw输电线路，迭代优化算法的最优功率因数为0.966，使金德从24.14 a /m²降低到19.99 a /m²，保持了20 a /m²的安全阈值，同时节省了434 MVAR的无功功率。这些结果展示了三个关键贡献：(1)超越传统经济优化的SVC技术的新型跨基础设施应用；(2)验证的定量腐蚀关系，实现风险评估；(3)双重效益解决方案，提高电网效率，同时保护共享能源走廊中的管道完整性。

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引用次数: 0

Research on transient characteristics of TRV under double faults of hybrid reactive power compensation line 混合无功补偿线路双故障下TRV暂态特性研究

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112824

Baina He , Chenxu Liu , Fantao Meng , Donghao Han , Yanchen Dong , Lei Gao , Zuyuan Li , Weihan Dai , Ye Liu , Bao Jin , Lei Meng , Jiarui Ding

With the continuous increase in voltage levels and transmission capacity of modern power systems, traditional hybrid reactive power compensation (HRPC) can no longer fully meet the stability requirements of ultra-high-voltage (UHV) transmission. During short-circuit faults, controllable HRPC introduces high-amplitude, low-frequency oscillations in the fault current, intensifying the transient recovery voltage (TRV) and posing a serious threat to system insulation. To address this issue, this study establishes an equivalent double-fault model of the UHV HRPC line based on its compensation principle, derives the TRV mechanism under different fault locations and initiation times, and analyzes the effects of compensation degree on TRV peak and rate of rise. The deterioration characteristics of TRV under double faults are revealed, and a high-speed grounding switch (HSGS) suppression scheme is proposed. Simulation results show that double faults on HRPC lines can cause TRV to exceed standard limits, hindering reliable circuit breaker interruption, while a properly configured HSGS effectively reduces both TRV peak and RRRV, enhancing breaker reliability and overall system stability.

随着现代电力系统电压等级和输电容量的不断提高，传统的混合无功补偿（HRPC）已经不能完全满足特高压输电的稳定性要求。在短路故障时，可控HRPC在故障电流中引入了高幅值、低频振荡，使暂态恢复电压（TRV）升高，对系统绝缘构成严重威胁。针对这一问题，本文基于特高压HRPC线路补偿原理建立了等效双故障模型，推导了不同故障位置和起始时间下的TRV机制，并分析了补偿程度对TRV峰值和上升速率的影响。揭示了双故障下TRV的劣化特性，提出了高速接地开关（HSGS）抑制方案。仿真结果表明，HRPC线路上的双故障会导致TRV超过标准限值，阻碍断路器的可靠中断，而合理配置HSGS可以有效降低TRV峰值和RRRV，提高断路器的可靠性和整体系统的稳定性。

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引用次数: 0

A study on the impacts of unbalanced AC underground distribution cables on their neighboring metal pipes 交流地下配电电缆不平衡对相邻金属管道的影响研究

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC

Electric Power Systems Research

Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2026.112812

Osama E. Gouda , Gomaa F.A. Osman

In this paper the influences of unbalanced and faulty underground distribution cables on their neighboring pipelines are investigated. The studied cases include unbalances of the cable phases in current amplitudes, in phase shifts and in both of them. The impact of the induced potential on the pipelines has been highlighted in terms of the degree of unbalance, the composition of backfill soils surrounding the cables and pipelines as well as the separation distance between cables and pipelines. In addition, the impacts of homogeneous or heterogeneous soil and the cable laying depth on the induced voltage are investigated. The model simulation is executed by the use of the 2D-FEM with COMSOL multi-physics program. Significant increase in the induced voltages affecting buried metal pipes near the cable path is observed when there is imbalance in cable phases. The induced voltage reaches 32.24, 28.84, and 19.6 times the permissible value in cases of unbalanced 33 kV, 11 kV and 0.4 kV respectively with sandy soil as backfill material. It is found that the induced voltage depends on the soil composition, the space between the cables and PLs, in addition to the unbalance of cable phases. The safe distances between distribution cables and the pipelines have been examined and recommendations are made for safe distances. Installing cables inside PVC ducts mitigates the induced voltage by about 33.81% to 32% of its value. The present paper results are useful for workers in the installations of electrical cables and metal pipelines.

本文研究了地下配电电缆不平衡和故障对相邻管线的影响。所研究的情况包括电流幅值、相移和两者相移时的电缆相位不平衡。从不平衡程度、电缆和管道周围回填土的组成以及电缆与管道的分离距离等方面强调了诱导电位对管道的影响。此外，还研究了均质或非均质土壤以及电缆敷设深度对感应电压的影响。利用COMSOL多物理场程序对模型进行了二维有限元仿真。当电缆相位不平衡时，影响电缆路径附近埋地金属管道的感应电压显著升高。砂质土在33kv、11kv和0.4 kV不平衡情况下，感应电压分别达到允许值的32.24倍、28.84倍和19.6倍。研究发现，感应电压除与电缆相不平衡有关外，还与土壤成分、电缆与PLs之间的间距有关。对配电电缆与管道之间的安全距离进行了研究，并对安全距离提出了建议。在PVC管道内敷设电缆可使感应电压降低约33.81% ~ 32%。本文的研究结果对电缆和金属管道安装工人有一定的参考价值。

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引用次数: 0