Carbon Balance and Management最新文献

Background

Global climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today, and forests play a crucial role as significant carbon sinks and providers of ecosystem services in mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. China, as one of the largest developing countries globally, owns 60% of its forest resources collectively. Evaluating the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests not only helps assess the contribution of China’s forest resources to global climate change mitigation but also provides important evidence for formulating relevant policies and measures.

Results

Over the past 30 years, the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China has shown an overall upward trend. Except for coastal provinces, southern collective forest areas, as well as some southwestern and northeastern regions, have the advantage of lower carbon sequestration costs. Furthermore, LSTM network predictions indicate that the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China will continue to rise. By 2030, the average carbon sequestration cost of collective forests is projected to reach 125 CNY per ton(= 16.06 Euros/t). Additionally, there is spatial correlation in the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests. Timber production, labor costs, and labor prices have negative spatial spillover effects on carbon sequestration costs, while land opportunity costs, forest accumulation, and rural resident consumption have positive spatial spillover effects.

Conclusion

The results of this study indicate regional disparities in the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration costs of collective forests, with an undeniable upward trend in future cost growth. It is essential to focus on areas with lower carbon sequestration costs and formulate targeted carbon sink economic policies and management measures to maximize the carbon sequestration potential of collective forests and promote the sustainable development of forestry.

Background

It is always a challenging job to compare forest resources as there is not a standardized spatial unit with location information. Google Plus Code, the newest alphanumeric geocoding system, uses 20 specifically selected letters and numbers to assign a unique global ID to every cell at different levels of a hierarchical grid system which is established based on latitude and longitude. It can be used as a standardized, unique global geospatial unit to segment, locate, quantitate, evaluate, and compare natural resources with area, boundary, and location information embedded.

Results

For this proof-of-concept case study, forest inventory data from 1987, 2002, and 2019 for the Zijin Mountain National Forest Park in Jiangsu Province, China was analyzed based on Google Plus Code grid/cell. This enabled the quantification of carbon storage at each cell allowing for the comparison of estimated carbon storage at same or different locations over time.

Conclusions

This methodology is used to quantify the impacts of changing forest conditions and forest management activities on carbon storage with high spatial accuracy through the 32-year study period. Furthermore, this technique could be used for providing technical support and validation of carbon credit quantification and management.

Background

Plantation forests are a nature-based solution to sequester atmospheric carbon and, therefore, mitigate anthropogenic climate change. The choice of tree species for afforestation is subject to debate within New Zealand. Two key issues are whether to use (1) exotic plantation species versus indigenous forest species and (2) fast growing short-rotation species versus slower growing species. In addition, there is a lack of scientific knowledge about the carbon sequestration capabilities of different plantation tree species, which hinders the choice of species for optimal carbon sequestration. We contribute to this discussion by simulating carbon sequestration of five plantation forest species, Pinus radiata, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Eucalyptus fastigata, Sequoia sempervirens and Podocarpus totara, across three sites and two silvicultural regimes by using the 3-PG an ecophysiological model.

Results

The model simulations showed that carbon sequestration potential varies among the species, sites and silvicultural regimes. Indigenous Podocarpus totara or exotic Sequoia sempervirens can provide plausible options for long-term carbon sequestration. In contrast, short term rapid carbon sequestration can be obtained by planting exotic Pinus radiata, Pseudotsuga menziesii and Eucalyptus fastigata.

Conclusion

No single species was universally better at sequestering carbon on all sites we tested. In general, the results of this study suggest a robust framework for ranking and testing candidate afforestation species with regard to carbon sequestration potential at a given site. Hence, this study could help towards more efficient decision-making for carbon forestry.

Background

Black carbon (BC) encompasses a range of carbonaceous materials––including soot, char, and charcoal––derived from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Urban soils can become enriched in BC due to proximity to these combustion sources. We conducted a literature review of BC in urban soils globally and found 26 studies reporting BC and total organic carbon (TOC) content collected to a maximum of 578 cm depth in urban soils across 35 cities and 10 countries. We recorded data on city, climate, and land use/land cover characteristics to examine drivers of BC content and contribution to TOC in soil.

Results

All studies were conducted in the northern hemisphere, with 68% of the data points collected in China and the United States. Surface samples (0–20 cm) accounted for 62% of samples in the dataset. Therefore, we focused our analysis on 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm depths. Urban soil BC content ranged from 0–124 mg/g (median = 3 mg/g) at 0–10 cm and from 0–53 mg/g (median = 2.8 mg/g) at 10–20 cm depth. The median proportional contribution of BC to TOC was 23% and 15% at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm, respectively. Surface soils sampled in industrial land use and near roads had the highest BC contents and proportions, whereas samples from residential sites had among the lowest. Soil BC content decreased with mean annual soil temperature.

Conclusions

Our review indicates that BC comprises a major fraction (nearly one quarter) of the TOC in urban surface soils, yet sampling bias towards the surface could hide the potential for BC storage at depth. Land use emerged as an importer driver of soil BC contents and proportions, whereas land cover effects remain uncertain. Warmer and wetter soils were found to have lower soil BC than cooler and drier soils, differences that likely reflect soil BC loss mechanisms. Additional research on urban soil BC at depth and from diverse climates is critical to better understand the role of cities in the global carbon cycle.

Background

Forests mitigate climate change by reducing atmospheric (mathrm {CO_2})-concentrations through the carbon sink in the forest and in wood products, and substitution effects when wood products replace carbon-intensive materials and fuels. Quantifying the carbon mitigation potential of forests is highly challenging due to the influence of multiple important factors such as forest age and type, climate change and associated natural disturbances, harvest intensities, wood usage patterns, salvage logging practices, and the carbon-intensity of substituted products. Here, we developed a framework to quantify the impact of these factors through factorial simulation experiments with an ecosystem model at the example of central European (Bavarian) forests.

Results

Our simulations showed higher mitigation potentials of young forests compared to mature forests, and similar ones in broad-leaved and needle-leaved forests. Long-lived wood products significantly contributed to mitigation, particularly in needle-leaved forests due to their wood product portfolio, and increased material usage of wood showed considerable climate benefits. Consequently, the ongoing conversion of needle-leaved to more broad-leaved forests should be accompanied by the promotion of long-lived products from broad-leaved species to maintain the product sink. Climate change (especially increasing disturbances) and decarbonization were among the most critical factors influencing mitigation potentials and introduced substantial uncertainty. Nevertheless, until 2050 this uncertainty was narrow enough to derive robust findings. For instance, reducing harvest intensities enhanced the carbon sink in our simulations, but diminished substitution effects, leading to a decreased total mitigation potential until 2050. However, when considering longer time horizons (i.e. until 2100), substitution effects became low enough in our simulations due to expected decarbonization such that decreasing harvests often seemed the more favorable solution.

Conclusion

Our results underscore the need to tailor mitigation strategies to the specific conditions of different forest sites. Furthermore, considering substitution effects, and thoroughly assessing the amount of avoided emissions by using wood products, is critical to determine mitigation potentials. While short-term recommendations are possible, we suggest risk diversification and methodologies like robust optimization to address increasing uncertainties from climate change and decarbonization paces past 2050. Finally, curbing emissions reduces the threat of climate change on forests, safeguarding their carbon sink and ecosystem services.

Background

Wood products continue to store carbon sequestered in forests after harvest and therefore play an important role in the total carbon storage associated with the forest sector. Trade-offs between carbon sequestration/storage in wood product pools and managed forest systems exist, and in order for forest sector carbon modeling to be meaningful, it must link wood product carbon with the specific forest system from which the products originate and have the ability to incorporate in situ and ex situ carbon synchronously over time.

Results

This study uses elements of a life cycle assessment approach, tracing carbon from US southern pine timber harvests to emission, to create a decision support tool that practitioners can use to inform policy design around land- and bioproduct-based mitigation strategies. We estimate that wood products from annual loblolly and shortleaf pine timber harvests across the southern US store 29.7 MtC in the year they enter the market, and 11.4 MtC remain stored after 120 years. We estimate fossil fuel emissions from the procurement, transportation, and manufacturing of these wood products to be 43.3 MtCO₂e year⁻¹. We found that composite logs, used to manufacture oriented strand board (OSB), were the most efficient log type for storing carbon, storing around 1.8 times as much carbon as saw logs per tonne of log over 120 years.

Conclusions

Results from our analysis suggest that adjusting rotation length based on individual site productivity, reducing methane emissions from landfills, and extending the storage of carbon in key products, such as corrugated boxes, through longer lifespans, higher recycling rates, and less landfill decomposition could result in significant carbon gains. Our results also highlight the benefits of high site productivity to store more carbon in both in situ and ex situ pools and suggest that shorter rotations could be used to optimize carbon storage on sites when productivity is high.

U.S. agricultural producers are increasingly able to participate in private voluntary carbon initiatives that compensate their efforts to sequester CO₂, reduce GHG emissions, and provide ecosystem services through eligible conservation practices. This study examines the potential effects of alternative private payment regimes (per practice vs. per output), prices paid to farmers relative to out-of-pocket costs (low vs. high), and the availability of information on CO₂ sequestration (limited vs. full), on the adoption of cover crops and no-till in the United States, the resulting CO₂ sequestration, and changes in farmers’ net returns. The analysis relies on a highly stylized model of heterogeneous farms calibrated with county-level agronomic data, and simulated for current estimates of GHG impacts of cover crop planting and no-till under different scenarios. Our results indicate that agricultural carbon markets can be profitable for U.S. farmers, although with substantial geographic variability, and that annual carbon sequestration could range between 17 and 75 million mtCO₂e. Payments per output would incentivize higher carbon sequestration than payments per practice, but the former regime would be less favored by farmers as a unified group than the latter (due to lower aggregate net returns). However, if operators of farms with high carbon sequestration potential could decide the payment regime to be implemented, they would choose the payment per output regime (due to higher net returns per enrolled hectare). Total projected net changes in GHGs under payments per practice, based solely on county-average net GHG effects of cover crops and no-till, over-estimate actual total GHG sequestration (based on the entire distribution of net effects by county) by 2.1 and 14.2 million mtCO₂e, or 18% and 21%, respectively.

Background

Two major factors that determine the efficiency of programs designed to mitigate greenhouse gases by encouraging voluntary changes in U.S. agricultural land management are the effect of land use changes on producers’ profitability and the net sequestration those changes create. In this work, we investigate how the interaction of these factors produces spatial heterogeneity in the cost-efficiency of voluntary programs incentivizing tillage reduction and cover-cropping practices. We map county-level predicted rates of adoption for each practice with the greenhouse gas mitigation or carbon sequestration benefits expected from their use. Then, we use these bivariate maps to describe how the cost efficiency of agricultural mitigation efforts is likely to vary spatially in the United States.

Results

Our results suggest the combination of high adoption rates and large reductions in net emissions make reduced tillage programs most cost efficient in the Chesapeake Bay watershed or the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri sub-basins of the Mississippi River. For programs aiming to reduce net emissions by incentivizing cover-cropping, we expect cost-efficiency to be greatest in the areas near the main stem of the Mississippi River within its Middle and Lower sections.

Conclusions

Many voluntary agricultural conservation programs offer the same incentives across the United States. Yet spatial variation in profitability and efficacy of conservation practices suggest that these uniform approaches are not cost-effective. Spatial targeting of voluntary agricultural conservation programs has the potential to increase the cost-efficiency of these programs due to regional heterogeneity in the profitability and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of agricultural land management practices across the continental United States. We illustrate how predicted rates of adoption and greenhouse gas sequestration might be used to target regions where efforts to incentivize cover-cropping and reductions in tillage are most likely to be cost -effective.

Background

In most regions and ecosystems, soils are the largest terrestrial carbon pool. Their potential vulnerability to climate and land use change, management, and other drivers, along with soils’ ability to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration, makes them important to carbon balance and management. To date, most studies of soil carbon management have been based at either large or site-specific scales, resulting in either broad generalizations or narrow conclusions, respectively. Advancing the science and practice of soil carbon management requires scientific progress at intermediate scales. Here, we conducted the fifth in a series of ecoregional assessments of the effects of land use change and forest management on soil carbon stocks, this time addressing the Northeast U.S. We used synthesis approaches including (1) meta-analysis of published literature, (2) soil survey and (3) national forest inventory databases to examine overall effects and underlying drivers of deforestation, reforestation, and forest harvesting on soil carbon stocks. The three complementary data sources allowed us to quantify direction, magnitude, and uncertainty in trends.

Results

Our meta-analysis findings revealed regionally consistent declines in soil carbon stocks due to deforestation, whether for agriculture or urban development. Conversely, reforestation led to significant increases in soil C stocks, with variation based on specific geographic factors. Forest harvesting showed no significant effect on soil carbon stocks, regardless of place-based or practice-specific factors. Observational soil survey and national forest inventory data generally supported meta-analytic harvest trends, and provided broader context by revealing the factors that act as baseline controls on soil carbon stocks in this ecoregion of carbon-dense soils. These factors include a range of soil physical, parent material, and topographic controls, with land use and climate factors also playing a role.

Conclusions

Forest harvesting has limited potential to alter forest soil C stocks in either direction, in contrast to the significant changes driven by land use shifts. These findings underscore the importance of understanding soil C changes at intermediate scales, and the need for an all-lands approach to managing soil carbon for climate change mitigation in the Northeast U.S.