Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory最新文献

The DARPA Ground Truth project sought to evaluate social science by constructing four varied simulated social worlds with hidden causality and unleashed teams of scientists to collect data, discover their causal structure, predict their future, and prescribe policies to create desired outcomes. This large-scale, long-term experiment of in silico social science, about which the ground truth of simulated worlds was known, but not by us, reveals the limits of contemporary quantitative social science methodology. First, problem solving without a shared ontology-in which many world characteristics remain existentially uncertain-poses strong limits to quantitative analysis even when scientists share a common task, and suggests how they could become insurmountable without it. Second, data labels biased the associations our analysts made and assumptions they employed, often away from the simulated causal processes those labels signified, suggesting limits on the degree to which analytic concepts developed in one domain may port to others. Third, the current standard for computational social science publication is a demonstration of novel causes, but this limits the relevance of models to solve problems and propose policies that benefit from the simpler and less surprising answers associated with most important causes, or the combination of all causes. Fourth, most singular quantitative methods applied on their own did not help to solve most analytical challenges, and we explored a range of established and emerging methods, including probabilistic programming, deep neural networks, systems of predictive probabilistic finite state machines, and more to achieve plausible solutions. However, despite these limitations common to the current practice of computational social science, we find on the positive side that even imperfect knowledge can be sufficient to identify robust prediction if a more pluralistic approach is applied. Applying competing approaches by distinct subteams, including at one point the vast TopCoder.com global community of problem solvers, enabled discovery of many aspects of the relevant structure underlying worlds that singular methods could not. Together, these lessons suggest how different a policy-oriented computational social science would be than the computational social science we have inherited. Computational social science that serves policy would need to endure more failure, sustain more diversity, maintain more uncertainty, and allow for more complexity than current institutions support.

We introduce the Urban Life agent-based simulation used by the Ground Truth program to capture the innate needs of a human-like population and explore how such needs shape social constructs such as friendship and wealth. Urban Life is a spatially explicit model to explore how urban form impacts agents' daily patterns of life. By meeting up at places agents form social networks, which in turn affect the places the agents visit. In our model, location and co-location affect all levels of decision making as agents prefer to visit nearby places. Co-location is necessary (but not sufficient) to connect agents in the social network. The Urban Life model was used in the Ground Truth program as a virtual world testbed to produce data in a setting in which the underlying ground truth was explicitly known. Data was provided to research teams to test and validate Human Domain research methods to an extent previously impossible. This paper summarizes our Urban Life model's design and simulation along with a description of how it was used to test the ability of Human Domain research teams to predict future states and to prescribe changes to the simulation to achieve desired outcomes in our simulated world.

The development of COVID-19 vaccines during the global pandemic that started in 2020 was marked by uncertainty and misinformation reflected also on social media. This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) shared on Twitter around the clinical trials of the AstraZeneca vaccine and their temporary interruption in September 2020. We analyzed URLs cited in Twitter messages before and after the temporary interruption of the vaccine development on September 9, 2020 to investigate the presence of low credibility and malicious information. We show that the halt of the AstraZeneca clinical trials prompted tweets that cast doubt, fear and vaccine opposition. We discovered a strong presence of URLs from low credibility or malicious websites, as classified by independent fact-checking organizations or identified by web hosting infrastructure features. Moreover, we identified what appears to be coordinated operations to artificially promote some of these URLs hosted on malicious websites.

With the continuous spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation poses serious threats and concerns. COVID-19-related misinformation integrates a mixture of health aspects along with news and political misinformation. This mixture complicates the ability to judge whether a claim related to COVID-19 is information, misinformation, or disinformation. With no standard terminology in information and disinformation, integrating different datasets and using existing classification models can be impractical. To deal with these issues, we aggregated several COVID-19 misinformation datasets and compared differences between learning models from individual datasets versus one that was aggregated. We also evaluated the impact of using several word- and sentence-embedding models and transformers on the performance of classification models. We observed that whereas word-embedding models showed improvements in all evaluated classification models, the improvement level varied among the different classifiers. Although our work was focused on COVID-19 misinformation detection, a similar approach can be applied to myriad other topics, such as the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Coordinated disinformation campaigns are used to influence social media users, potentially leading to offline violence. In this study, we introduce a general methodology to uncover coordinated messaging through an analysis of user posts on Parler. The proposed Coordinating Narratives Framework constructs a user-to-user coordination graph, which is induced by a user-to-text graph and a text-to-text similarity graph. The text-to-text graph is constructed based on the textual similarity of Parler and Twitter posts. We study three influential groups of users in the 6 January 2020 Capitol riots and detect networks of coordinated user clusters that post similar textual content in support of disinformation narratives related to the U.S. 2020 elections. We further extend our methodology to Twitter tweets to identify authors that share the same disinformation messaging as the aforementioned Parler user groups.