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Income Shock and Child Labour: Revisiting the Poverty Link 收入冲击与童工:重新审视与贫困的联系
Pub Date : 2024-04-17 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241241870
S. Chowdhury, Dona Ghosh
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered massive supply chain disruptions, job losses and income shocks at the micro-level. This has repercussions on the labour market outcomes not only at the macro-level but also at the micro-level labour supply decisions. This article provides a theoretical model of the impact of such recessionary income shocks on household’s child labour (CL) decision. CL has been a major concern for the developing world, especially for India with its goal towards ‘inclusive growth’. Parental altruism and choice of substituting CL income by their own are endogenous. Interestingly, income shocks have ambiguous effect on CL in general, but they have a clear positive impact on regions with high cost of living. When wages are inflexible, such shocks, depending upon their extent, might be CL-inducing as well as poverty-enhancing. It infers that any in-kind transfer or policies such as mid-day meal that essentially reduces cost of living is always CL-reducing. JEL Codes: J13, J29, D10
COVID-19 大流行病在微观层面引发了大规模的供应链中断、失业和收入冲击。这不仅对宏观层面的劳动力市场结果产生影响,也对微观层面的劳动力供给决策产生影响。本文提供了一个理论模型,说明这种衰退性收入冲击对家庭童工(CL)决策的影响。童工问题一直是发展中国家,尤其是以 "包容性增长 "为目标的印度所关注的主要问题。父母的利他主义和用自己的收入替代童工收入的选择是内生的。有趣的是,收入冲击对社区生活的总体影响并不明显,但对生活成本较高的地区有明显的积极影响。在工资缺乏弹性的情况下,这种冲击(视其程度而定)可能会诱发生活费用的增加,也可能会加剧贫困。由此推断,任何从本质上降低生活成本的实物转移或政策(如午餐)都会降低生活成本。JEL Codes:J13, J29, D10
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Technical and Scale Efficiencies of Cooperative Banks in Jammu and Kashmir 评估查谟和克什米尔合作银行的技术和规模效率
Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238590
Aadil Ummar Zaman, N. Khan
This article examines the performance of cooperative banks in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) during 2005–2018. We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology to obtain technical and scale efficiency scores for each bank over the years. Income-based approach has been employed while selecting our inputs and outputs. Our results indicate a large asymmetry as far as the performance across different banks is concerned. The dominant source of the technical inefficiency in the cooperative banks is found to be scale related. Further, the results from returns to scale suggest that majority of the cooperative banks in J&K are operating on the zone of decreasing returns to scale.
本文研究了查谟和克什米尔(J&K)合作银行在 2005-2018 年间的表现。我们使用数据包络分析(DEA)方法获得了各家银行多年来的技术效率和规模效率得分。在选择投入和产出时,我们采用了基于收入的方法。我们的研究结果表明,不同银行的绩效存在很大的不对称性。合作银行技术效率低下的主要原因与规模有关。此外,规模收益的结果表明,查谟和克什米尔地区的大多数合作银行都是在规模收益递减的区域内运营的。
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引用次数: 0
Return and Volatility Spillover in Equity and Commodity Market: Some Indian Evidence 股票和商品市场的回报与波动溢出效应:印度的一些证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238592
Tapas Kumar Sethy, N. Tripathy
This study empirically investigates the return and volatility spillover among equity markets, Agro and non-Agro commodity markets. The study has used daily return data of BSE SENSEX as equity index, MCX iCOMEDEX, including Gold, Silver, and Crude oil, as non-agro indices, and NCDEX (AGRIDEX) as agro commodity indices to analyze volatility transmission between assets and markets using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (EGARCH) model. The study has used dummy variables in the variance equation to identify the structural breaks during the COVID 19 pandemic. Further, Vector Auto Regression (VAR) pair-wise Granger causality test has been used to understand returns’ causality. The study has found a bidirectional and unidirectional causal relationship between variables. The study indicates that NCDEX could influence all the variables except MCX Gold. In structural breaks with deterministic dummy variables during COVID-19, we have found mixed evidence of asymmetric impact on conditional volatility. The study also indicates a positive and significant asymmetric volatility effect in the case of MCX Gold and MCX Silver during the COVID-19 period. The study has specified that SENSEX dominates the inflow of information to all commodity markets. Also, the findings signpost that information flows from NCDEX to MCX Gold, MCX Silver, and MCX Crude Oil. JEL Codes: C32, E30, E44, F41, G15, Q43
本研究对股票市场、农产品市场和非农产品市场之间的回报和波动溢出效应进行了实证调查。本研究使用 BSE SENSEX 作为股票指数,MCX iCOMEDEX(包括黄金、白银和原油)作为非农产品指数,NCDEX (AGRIDEX) 作为农产品指数的每日收益数据,使用广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)和指数广义自回归条件异方差(EGARCH)模型分析资产和市场之间的波动性传递。研究在方差方程中使用了虚拟变量,以确定 COVID 19 大流行期间的结构性中断。此外,还使用了向量自动回归(VAR)成对格兰杰因果检验来了解回报的因果关系。研究发现变量之间存在双向和单向因果关系。研究表明,NCDEX 可以影响除 MCX 黄金以外的所有变量。在 COVID-19 期间使用确定性虚拟变量的结构性中断中,我们发现了对条件波动率产生非对称影响的混合证据。研究还表明,在 COVID-19 期间,MCX 黄金和 MCX 白银的非对称波动率效应为正且显著。研究明确指出,SENSEX 指数主导了所有商品市场的信息流入。此外,研究结果还表明,信息从 NCDEX 流向 MCX 黄金、MCX 白银和 MCX 原油。JEL Codes:C32, E30, E44, F41, G15, Q43
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引用次数: 0
Unbalanced Industrialisation and Geographic Peculiarities: 
A Study of India? 不平衡的工业化与地理特殊性:印度研究?
Pub Date : 2024-04-10 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238587
Mehak Majeed, Saeed Owais Mushtaq
The inter-regional disparity in economic indicators in India has increased by a considerable amount over the years. The current study is an attempt to highlight the inter-state industrialisation disparities in India. The study, based on the theoretic exposition of new economic geography, argues that the initial geographical (historical) advantage to the southern part of India has locked in industrial activities in that region (core), depriving the northern (periphery) regions of the similar benefits. Based on the Annual Survey of Industries data, the study validates that the southern regions are geographically advantageous in India and are better industrialised than the geographically disadvantaged northern regions. The study points towards the negligence of the union government in acknowledging and intervening into the industrialisation and developmental divides rampant in the latter regions. The study concludes by laying grounds open for the furtherance in the recognition of economic geography as one of the fundamental determinants of inter-regional inequalities across India, demanding immediate policy attention. JEL Codes: J61, O14
多年来,印度地区间经济指标的差距大幅扩大。本研究试图强调印度邦际工业化差距。该研究基于新经济地理学的理论阐述,认为印度南部地区最初的地理(历史)优势将工业活动锁定在该地区(核心),使北部(外围)地区无法获得类似的利益。根据年度工业调查数据,该研究证实了印度南部地区在地理位置上的优势,其工业化程度高于在地理位置上处于劣势的北部地区。研究指出,联邦政府在承认和干预北部地区工业化和发展鸿沟方面存在疏忽。研究最后提出,应进一步认识到经济地理是造成印度地区间不平等的根本决定因素之一,并应立即给予政策关注。JEL 编码:J61, O14
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引用次数: 0
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Household Consumer Confidence: Evidence from Indian Household 
Data 经济政策不确定性与家庭消费者信心:来自印度家庭数据的证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238500
D. Rooj, Anurag Banerjee, R. Sengupta
This article aims to analyse how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects consumer confidence in India. The study uses unit-level observations on consumer confidence from the Reserve Bank of India’s Consumer Confidence Survey from June 2016 to May 2021. Exploring the variations in consumer confidence across several cities in India, the regression exercise shows how India-specific EPU and global EPU impact consumer confidence. Findings from the study show that EPU has a negative and significant impact on consumers’ perceptions and outlook about the economy. The results also show that the effect of global EPU is stronger, compared to India-specific EPU. A disaggregated analysis is also conducted to analyse the impact of EPU on several consumer confidence indicators, such as the perception and the outlook on household income, spending, employment and general price levels. Contrary to the current literature, this study uses individual-level responses on consumer confidence from survey data and examines the role of EPU on consumer sentiments. Overall, the findings suggest that news-based economic policy-related uncertainty shocks negatively affect households’ sentiments. Moreover, a disaggregated analysis is also conducted for several consumer confidence indicators such as perception and outlook on household income, spending, employment and general price levels. JEL Codes: E66, E71, H31
本文旨在分析经济政策不确定性(EPU)如何影响印度的消费者信心。研究使用了印度储备银行在2016年6月至2021年5月期间进行的消费者信心调查中对消费者信心的单位水平观测数据。通过探索印度多个城市消费者信心的变化,回归结果显示了印度特有的 EPU 和全球 EPU 对消费者信心的影响。研究结果表明,EPU 对消费者对经济的看法和展望有显著的负面影响。结果还显示,与印度特有的 EPU 相比,全球 EPU 的影响更大。研究还进行了分类分析,以分析 EPU 对几个消费者信心指标的影响,如对家庭收入、支出、就业和总体价格水平的看法和展望。与现有文献不同的是,本研究使用了调查数据中关于消费者信心的个人层面反应,并研究了 EPU 对消费者情绪的作用。总体而言,研究结果表明,基于新闻的经济政策相关不确定性冲击会对家庭情绪产生负面影响。此外,我们还对几个消费者信心指标进行了分类分析,如对家庭收入、支出、就业和一般价格水平的看法和展望。JEL Codes:E66, E71, H31
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric Volatility in Stock 
Market: Evidence from Selected 
Export-based Countries 股票市场的非对称波动:部分出口型国家的证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-09 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238598
Himani Gupta
In a country, the financial markets depend on several economic factors. One of these important factors is the export of the country. The stock index of the country tends to be raised due to the exports, though it may occur after some time rather than immediately. In this study, an attempt has been made to predict the best model of volatility in top export countries, Germany, China, the United States, Japan and Hong Kong by taking into account the closing price of the stock index of the sampled countries for a period ranging from the year 2000 to 2020. The returns from the stock markets are asymmetric; negative returns are found to be followed by a greater increase in volatility than the corresponding positive returns. Therefore, both symmetric and asymmetric generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have been applied to predict the volatility. The symmetric model used is GARCH (1,1) and asymmetric models used in the study are exponential GARCH (1,1) and GJR-GARCH (1,1). The study shows that EGARCH model has outperformed the GARCH and GJR-GARCH models in estimating the volatility in four stock indices ( Hanif & Pok, 2010 ; Kışınbay, 2010 ; Lin, 2018 ), and GJR-GARCH has outperformed in estimating volatility in one stock index ( Oberholzer & Venter, 2015 ; Shamiri & Hassan, 2007 ). The benefit of this study is to help portfolio managers, investors and corporations in making investment-related decisions. JEL Codes: C20, C31, C58, G12
一个国家的金融市场取决于多个经济因素。其中一个重要因素就是该国的出口。该国的股票指数往往会因为出口而上升,尽管这可能会在一段时间后而不是立即发生。在本研究中,通过考虑抽样国家 2000 年至 2020 年期间股票指数的收盘价,尝试预测了顶级出口国德国、中国、美国、日本和香港的最佳波动模型。股票市场的收益是不对称的;负收益比相应的正收益带来更大的波动性增长。因此,对称和非对称广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型都被用来预测波动率。研究中使用的对称模型是 GARCH (1,1),非对称模型是指数 GARCH (1,1) 和 GJR-GARCH (1,1)。研究表明,EGARCH 模型在估计四个股票指数的波动性方面优于 GARCH 和 GJR-GARCH 模型(Hanif & Pok,2010;Kışınbay,2010;Lin,2018),而 GJR-GARCH 在估计一个股票指数的波动性方面优于 GARCH 和 GJR-GARCH 模型(Oberholzer & Venter,2015;Shamiri & Hassan,2007)。本研究的益处在于帮助投资组合经理、投资者和企业做出与投资相关的决策。JEL Codes:C20, C31, C58, G12
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引用次数: 0
A Comparative Study of Regional Disparities in the Districts of West Bengal 西孟加拉邦各地区差异比较研究
Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238586
Panchali Sengupta, Anjan Chakrabarti
In the post-economic reform period, the overall economic growth of West Bengal has been increasing. However, agricultural growth has become sluggish since the 1990s. The relatively low contribution of the secondary sector reveals an absence of a strong manufacturing base in the state. The high contribution of the tertiary sector indicates diversification and expansion of services. The time dimension for district-level analysis has been constricted by data availability. The inequality among the district is increasing, with a divergence of growth. Three development indices and a composite index reveal a significant disparity in development outcomes across districts between 2001 and 2013. The developmental gap between districts in the southern and northern parts of West Bengal has become prominent. JEL Codes: R11, 047, D63
在经济改革后时期,西孟加拉邦的整体经济增长一直在增长。然而,自 20 世纪 90 年代以来,农业增长变得迟缓。第二产业的贡献率相对较低,这表明该邦缺乏强大的制造业基础。第三产业的高贡献率表明了服务业的多样化和扩张。县级分析的时间维度受到数据可用性的限制。各县之间的不平等在加剧,增长出现分化。三个发展指数和一个综合指数显示,2001 年至 2013 年间,各地区的发展成果存在显著差异。西孟加拉邦南部和北部各县之间的发展差距已变得十分突出。JEL Codes:R11, 047, D63
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引用次数: 0
Market Efficiency of Base Metal 
Futures in India: An Empirical 
Evidence 印度基本金属期货的市场效率:经验证据
Pub Date : 2024-04-07 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241238594
Laxmidhar Samal
Base metals are the key input used in different critical industries which are vital to the economy. After lifting the prohibition on commodity futures trading in 2003, there has been a surge in the volume, value and open interest of the commodity futures segment in India. Considering the growth momentums of futures, the article is an attempt to examine the market efficiency of the metal futures in India. The study examines the weak-form market efficiency of different base metal futures contracts traded at Multi Commodity Exchange of India. For the said objective, the study uses fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least square methods. The study concludes that there exists a long-run cointegrating relationship between the spot and futures prices of different base metals, and it is found that the base metals futures markets of India are less efficient. The period of the study is limited to 7 years, and the study has considered only near-month contracts. Future research will explore the efficiency of the base metal market of other developing nations. JEL Codes: G13, G14, C58
基本金属是对经济至关重要的不同关键行业的主要投入品。在 2003 年取消商品期货交易禁令之后,印度商品期货交易的数量、价值和未平仓合约都出现了激增。考虑到期货的增长势头,本文试图研究印度金属期货的市场效率。研究考察了在印度多种商品交易所交易的不同基本金属期货合约的弱形式市场效率。为实现上述目标,研究采用了完全修正普通最小二乘法和动态普通最小二乘法。研究得出结论,不同基本金属的现货价格和期货价格之间存在长期协整关系,并发现印度基本金属期货市场的效率较低。这项研究的时间仅限于 7 年,而且只考虑了近月合约。未来的研究将探索其他发展中国家基本金属市场的效率。JEL Codes:G13、G14、C58
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引用次数: 0
Efficiency of Public Healthcare Systems Across Indian States 印度各邦公共医疗系统的效率
Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241235619
Ranjan Aneja, Shine Raju Kappil, Surender Mor
This article analyses the technical efficiency of public healthcare systems within various states of India. Slacks-based efficiency model (SBM) to compare the efficiencies of the public healthcare systems of selected Indian states has been used. A comparison of budget documents and government responses during the pandemic revealed the changing stereotypical stand of the Central Government towards the health sector, especially after the advent of the pandemic. Further, the study found that the public healthcare systems of four states (Bihar, Kerala, Maharashtra and NCT of Delhi) are SBM efficient. Healthcare resources are over-utilised in most states, but health outcomes still need to be improved. The study recommends connecting poor and illiterate citizens in remote villages with public health utilities to improve health outcomes. JEL Codes: H51, H52, H75
本文分析了印度各邦公共医疗系统的技术效率。文章采用基于 Slacks 的效率模型(SBM)来比较印度部分邦公共医疗系统的效率。通过比较大流行病期间的预算文件和政府应对措施,发现中央政府对卫生部门的陈规定型立场发生了变化,尤其是在大流行病出现之后。此外,研究还发现,四个邦(比哈尔邦、喀拉拉邦、马哈拉施特拉邦和德里新首都区)的公共医疗保健系统是高效的 SBM 系统。大多数邦的医疗资源都被过度利用,但医疗成果仍有待改善。研究建议将偏远乡村的贫困和文盲公民与公共卫生设施联系起来,以改善卫生成果。JEL Codes:H51, H52, H75
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引用次数: 0
Prevalence of Household Food Security and Health-related Quality of Life: Special Consideration on the Expectant Mothers in Punjab 家庭食品安全和与健康相关的生活质量的普遍性:旁遮普省准妈妈的特殊考虑
Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1177/00194662241235598
Sugandh Arora, T. Nabi, Sumit Oberoi, Vedica Awasthi
Household food security (HFS) affects the quality and adequacy of nutrition and can significantly impact an individual’s health. The study aims to examine the association between HFS and maternal quality of life in Punjab. The cross-sectional study was conducted in the northern Indian state of Punjab from January to March 2021 on 384 expectant mothers. The urban health facilities were chosen using the random cluster selection approach from geographical locations in Punjab, India. A well-structured questionnaire was adapted from HFS and health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) that was used to collect the data. Descriptive statistics were used to investigate the socioeconomic status and food security. HFS and HR-QOL relationship was studied using multilinear regression. The results revealed that 43.9% of expectant women experienced food insecurity. Mean (±SD) scores for the domains of ‘social performance’ (84.4 ± 16.6) and ‘role limitation due to physical reasons’ (64.5 ± 35.5) were the highest in pregnant women. Quality of life scores for expectant mothers with food insecurity were the lowest. Due to physical reasons, role constraint scored the weakest for pregnant women with food insecurity (64.3 ± 45.5, 69.1 ± 43.2 and 49.3 ± 57.2, respectively, for mild, moderate and severe food insecurity). High-risk pregnant women screened for HFS in their primary prenatal care can increase their diet quality and quantity. Additionally, there is a need for multi-level actions such as policy development, resource allocation and proper amenities to ensure expectant mothers have access to nutritious food. JEL Codes: D1, I0, I30, I31
家庭食品安全(HFS)会影响营养的质量和充足性,并对个人健康产生重大影响。本研究旨在探讨旁遮普邦家庭粮食安全与孕产妇生活质量之间的关系。这项横断面研究于 2021 年 1 月至 3 月在印度北部旁遮普邦对 384 名孕妇进行了调查。采用随机分组选择法从印度旁遮普邦的地理位置中选择了城市医疗机构。为了收集数据,研究人员从家庭健康调查和健康相关生活质量(HR-QoL)中选取了一份结构合理的问卷。描述性统计用于调查社会经济状况和食品安全。使用多元线性回归法研究了 HFS 与 HR-QOL 的关系。结果显示,43.9% 的孕妇存在食物不安全问题。孕妇在 "社会表现"(84.4 ± 16.6)和 "身体原因导致的角色限制"(64.5 ± 35.5)领域的平均(±SD)得分最高。食物无保障准妈妈的生活质量得分最低。由于身体原因,食物不安全孕妇的角色限制得分最低(轻度、中度和重度食物不安全分别为 64.3 ± 45.5、69.1 ± 43.2 和 49.3 ± 57.2)。在初级产前保健中筛查出食物无保障的高危孕妇可以提高饮食质量和数量。此外,还需要采取多层次的行动,如制定政策、分配资源和提供适当的便利设施,以确保孕妇能够获得营养食品。JEL Codes:D1、I0、I30、I31
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Indian Economic Journal
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