Karel Kaurila, Sanna Kuningas, Antti Lappalainen, Jarno Vanhatalo
Species distribution models (SDM) are key tools in ecology, conservation, and natural resources management. They are traditionally trained with data on direct species observations. However, if collecting species data is difficult or expensive, complementary information sources on species distributions are needed. Expert knowledge has been demonstrated to improve SDM predictions in a number of such applications but there is still no consensus on methods to integrate information from several experts into a single coherent species distribution prediction. Moreover, since expert assessments are inherently subjective and prone to biases, expert‐driven SDMs should calibrate their assessments. We propose a method to tackle these challenges by extending the hierarchical Bayesian integrated species distribution modeling framework to expert informed species distribution modeling. We treated map‐like expert assessments as data and integrated them with calibration data on species recordings. Our integrated SDM has model components to estimate experts' reliability and to adjust for potential biases in their assessments. After integrated inference, we used the model to make predictions over a study area. We tested our approach with an extensive simulation study and a real world case study comprising ten expert assessments and survey data on pikeperch larvae from a coastal area of the Gulf of Finland. Expert assessments significantly improved species distribution predictions compared to predictions conditioned on survey data only. They also improved parameter inference, thus strengthening the ecological interpretation of the results. The skill of the experts, and biases in their assessments, varied considerably in the case study though, emphasizing the importance of formal expert calibration provided by our model. Our results show that expert elicitation can be an efficient tool for improving species distribution model predictions. Our approach is especially useful for applications where any type of species data are expensive to collect but local species experts can easily be reached.
{"title":"Species distribution modeling with expert elicitation and Bayesian calibration","authors":"Karel Kaurila, Sanna Kuningas, Antti Lappalainen, Jarno Vanhatalo","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08173","url":null,"abstract":"Species distribution models (SDM) are key tools in ecology, conservation, and natural resources management. They are traditionally trained with data on direct species observations. However, if collecting species data is difficult or expensive, complementary information sources on species distributions are needed. Expert knowledge has been demonstrated to improve SDM predictions in a number of such applications but there is still no consensus on methods to integrate information from several experts into a single coherent species distribution prediction. Moreover, since expert assessments are inherently subjective and prone to biases, expert‐driven SDMs should calibrate their assessments. We propose a method to tackle these challenges by extending the hierarchical Bayesian integrated species distribution modeling framework to expert informed species distribution modeling. We treated map‐like expert assessments as data and integrated them with calibration data on species recordings. Our integrated SDM has model components to estimate experts' reliability and to adjust for potential biases in their assessments. After integrated inference, we used the model to make predictions over a study area. We tested our approach with an extensive simulation study and a real world case study comprising ten expert assessments and survey data on pikeperch larvae from a coastal area of the Gulf of Finland. Expert assessments significantly improved species distribution predictions compared to predictions conditioned on survey data only. They also improved parameter inference, thus strengthening the ecological interpretation of the results. The skill of the experts, and biases in their assessments, varied considerably in the case study though, emphasizing the importance of formal expert calibration provided by our model. Our results show that expert elicitation can be an efficient tool for improving species distribution model predictions. Our approach is especially useful for applications where any type of species data are expensive to collect but local species experts can easily be reached.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146129421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A central goal of ecology is to understand spatial patterns of species densities. Habitat suitability estimates from species distribution models (SDMs) could be used to represent species density and overcome the scarcity of density data. However, there is mixed evidence that habitat suitability is a reliable descriptor of density, and it is suggested that local dynamics affect the relationship between habitat suitability and density. We simulated population dynamics for 200 virtual species considering different combinations of factors (demographic stochasticity, dispersal, and intraspecific competition) that affect population sizes and SDMs were trained using different sets of environmental predictors to evaluate when habitat suitability reflects densities. We also examined the generalities of these relationships in nature considering 200 North American bird species sampled by the Breeding Bird Survey. We found that even when population growth rate and demographic stochasticity were the only factors driving population dynamics and SDMs are trained with the two environmental factors that controlled population density, habitat suitability was not consistently related to virtual species densities. Incorporating dispersal dynamics and spatial differences in intraspecific competition had negative effects on the relationship between habitat suitability and density, showing that these factors influence these relationships. Similarly, habitat suitability could not explain the density of North American birds. Together, our results suggest that the use of habitat suitability estimates from SDMs to understand population densities should be avoided as habitat suitability does not relate to density under many scenarios.
{"title":"Demography and dispersal influence the relationship between habitat suitability and population density","authors":"Cleber Ten Caten, Tad Dallas","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08299","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08299","url":null,"abstract":"A central goal of ecology is to understand spatial patterns of species densities. Habitat suitability estimates from species distribution models (SDMs) could be used to represent species density and overcome the scarcity of density data. However, there is mixed evidence that habitat suitability is a reliable descriptor of density, and it is suggested that local dynamics affect the relationship between habitat suitability and density. We simulated population dynamics for 200 virtual species considering different combinations of factors (demographic stochasticity, dispersal, and intraspecific competition) that affect population sizes and SDMs were trained using different sets of environmental predictors to evaluate when habitat suitability reflects densities. We also examined the generalities of these relationships in nature considering 200 North American bird species sampled by the Breeding Bird Survey. We found that even when population growth rate and demographic stochasticity were the only factors driving population dynamics and SDMs are trained with the two environmental factors that controlled population density, habitat suitability was not consistently related to virtual species densities. Incorporating dispersal dynamics and spatial differences in intraspecific competition had negative effects on the relationship between habitat suitability and density, showing that these factors influence these relationships. Similarly, habitat suitability could not explain the density of North American birds. Together, our results suggest that the use of habitat suitability estimates from SDMs to understand population densities should be avoided as habitat suitability does not relate to density under many scenarios.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146122165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Timothy E. Essington, James T. Thorson, Curtis Deutsch
Species' ranges are shifting in response to increasing temperature and decreasing oxygen in coastal oceans. Predicting these shifts is limited by information on physiological oxygen thresholds and how they depend on temperature. Here we collate laboratory-derived measurements of a common oxygen threshold, pcrit, for 148 animal species that span six phyla, and fit a hierarchical model based on taxonomy to impute threshold values for all based on taxonomy, body size, and environmental temperature. As expected, pcrit increased with increasing temperature and body size, and these temperature- and body size effects were broadly similar among species. Generally, variation in pcrit measurements was estimated to be most pronounced at the taxonomic family and species level, although the partitioning of variance was relatively imprecise. We demonstrate application of these estimates for species distribution modeling of six groundfish species that reside in the coastal waters of the US and Canadian Pacific coast, finding that models that used imputed values sometimes – but not always – improved the performance of species distribution models compared to models that use environmental pO2 alone. This modeling framework and data can support species distribution modeling for marine species by providing an alternative way to consider the role of shifting oxygen levels and temperatures on species ranges.
{"title":"Predicting oxygen thresholds of marine taxa to improve ecological forecasts","authors":"Timothy E. Essington, James T. Thorson, Curtis Deutsch","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08374","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08374","url":null,"abstract":"Species' ranges are shifting in response to increasing temperature and decreasing oxygen in coastal oceans. Predicting these shifts is limited by information on physiological oxygen thresholds and how they depend on temperature. Here we collate laboratory-derived measurements of a common oxygen threshold, p<sub>crit</sub>, for 148 animal species that span six phyla, and fit a hierarchical model based on taxonomy to impute threshold values for all based on taxonomy, body size, and environmental temperature. As expected, p<sub>crit</sub> increased with increasing temperature and body size, and these temperature- and body size effects were broadly similar among species. Generally, variation in p<sub>crit</sub> measurements was estimated to be most pronounced at the taxonomic family and species level, although the partitioning of variance was relatively imprecise. We demonstrate application of these estimates for species distribution modeling of six groundfish species that reside in the coastal waters of the US and Canadian Pacific coast, finding that models that used imputed values sometimes – but not always – improved the performance of species distribution models compared to models that use environmental pO<sub>2</sub> alone. This modeling framework and data can support species distribution modeling for marine species by providing an alternative way to consider the role of shifting oxygen levels and temperatures on species ranges.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Charlotte E. Raven, Andy G. Howe, David C. F. Rentz, Emma J. Mackintosh, Andrew R. Marshall, Helen F. Nahrung
Disturbance-driven changes in rainforest structure and environmental conditions can alter ecosystem functioning, yet the consequences for invertebrate communities – key contributors to decomposition, herbivory, and trophic interactions – are not fully understood, particularly in relation to structural changes in vegetation. We examined how climate, vegetation structure, and associated environmental gradients influence cricket communities (Orthoptera: Ensifera) in disturbed tropical rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. Using richness, abundance-weighted diversity, community ordination, and trait-based analyses, we assessed taxonomic and functional responses to variation in forest structure and climate. We used crickets as a model taxon due to their high local endemism, sensitivity to microhabitat conditions, and value as indicators of environmental change in tropical ecosystems. Species richness increased with precipitation and aboveground biomass, the latter reflecting differences in disturbance and forest recovery, and both explained the greatest variation in community composition. Trait–environment associations showed that flightlessness increased with elevation, tree density, and latitude. Acoustic species were associated with higher aboveground biomass, while smaller, non-acoustic species declined with biomass and elevation. These results show that climate and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation structure can influence invertebrate communities, producing functionally distinct assemblages with altered dispersal and acoustic signalling, and highlight the value of trait-based approaches for understanding biodiversity responses to environmental change.
{"title":"Precipitation and tree biomass correlate with the diversity and functional composition of tropical rainforest cricket assemblages across climate and disturbance gradients","authors":"Charlotte E. Raven, Andy G. Howe, David C. F. Rentz, Emma J. Mackintosh, Andrew R. Marshall, Helen F. Nahrung","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08451","url":null,"abstract":"Disturbance-driven changes in rainforest structure and environmental conditions can alter ecosystem functioning, yet the consequences for invertebrate communities – key contributors to decomposition, herbivory, and trophic interactions – are not fully understood, particularly in relation to structural changes in vegetation. We examined how climate, vegetation structure, and associated environmental gradients influence cricket communities (Orthoptera: Ensifera) in disturbed tropical rainforests of North Queensland, Australia. Using richness, abundance-weighted diversity, community ordination, and trait-based analyses, we assessed taxonomic and functional responses to variation in forest structure and climate. We used crickets as a model taxon due to their high local endemism, sensitivity to microhabitat conditions, and value as indicators of environmental change in tropical ecosystems. Species richness increased with precipitation and aboveground biomass, the latter reflecting differences in disturbance and forest recovery, and both explained the greatest variation in community composition. Trait–environment associations showed that flightlessness increased with elevation, tree density, and latitude. Acoustic species were associated with higher aboveground biomass, while smaller, non-acoustic species declined with biomass and elevation. These results show that climate and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation structure can influence invertebrate communities, producing functionally distinct assemblages with altered dispersal and acoustic signalling, and highlight the value of trait-based approaches for understanding biodiversity responses to environmental change.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Charlotte Vanderlocht, Valerio Donini, Andrea Corradini, Simone Dal Farra, Benjamin Robira, Andrea Gazzola, Giorgia Galeotti, Laura Limonciello, Noemi Squillaci, Maël Van Dam, Giada Zeni, Marta Gandolfi, Elisa Iacona, Lucrezia Lorenzetti, Matteo Nava, Federico Ossi, Heidi C. Hauffe, Francesco Ferretti, Luca Corlatti, Luca Pedrotti, Francesca Cagnacci
As wolves recolonise their historical range across Europe, ungulates face predation once more – but in landscapes profoundly altered by human activity. This shift raises crucial questions about their capacity to express adaptive antipredator behaviours. Using a quasi-experimental camera-trap design, we examined diel activity responses of ungulates along the ongoing wolf recolonisation in the south-eastern Alps. Red deer showed higher summer diurnality in sites with a longer history of wolf presence (7% increase over five years, on average) and progressively reduced nocturnality within sites as local wolf establishment advanced (5% decrease per year, on average), also heightening activity overlap with humans. This ‘diel shield effect' disappeared when human hunting occurred. Roe deer and Alpine chamois did not exhibit significant diel activity shifts in relation to wolves, though both species responded to human disturbance, with roe deer adjusting activity to hunting (18% less diurnal, on average) and chamois reducing diurnality in areas of intense outdoor use (up to 38% difference in diurnality between undisturbed and highly disturbed areas). Red deer, too, were less diurnal (up to 27% difference) and more nocturnal (up to 37% difference) in such highly disturbed areas, as well as near human settlements (up to 42% difference in diurnality between remote areas and villages). Our findings show that wolf recovery can induce detectable diel activity shifts in large herbivores over relatively short timescales, yet responses depend on species biology and behavioural plasticity. Importantly, human risk and disturbance can offset or override these behavioural adjustments, potentially altering the ecosystemic effects of returning large carnivores.
{"title":"Alpine ungulates adjust diel activity to the natural return of wolves amid anthropogenic pressures","authors":"Charlotte Vanderlocht, Valerio Donini, Andrea Corradini, Simone Dal Farra, Benjamin Robira, Andrea Gazzola, Giorgia Galeotti, Laura Limonciello, Noemi Squillaci, Maël Van Dam, Giada Zeni, Marta Gandolfi, Elisa Iacona, Lucrezia Lorenzetti, Matteo Nava, Federico Ossi, Heidi C. Hauffe, Francesco Ferretti, Luca Corlatti, Luca Pedrotti, Francesca Cagnacci","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07988","url":null,"abstract":"As wolves recolonise their historical range across Europe, ungulates face predation once more – but in landscapes profoundly altered by human activity. This shift raises crucial questions about their capacity to express adaptive antipredator behaviours. Using a quasi-experimental camera-trap design, we examined diel activity responses of ungulates along the ongoing wolf recolonisation in the south-eastern Alps. Red deer showed higher summer diurnality in sites with a longer history of wolf presence (7% increase over five years, on average) and progressively reduced nocturnality within sites as local wolf establishment advanced (5% decrease per year, on average), also heightening activity overlap with humans. This ‘diel shield effect' disappeared when human hunting occurred. Roe deer and Alpine chamois did not exhibit significant diel activity shifts in relation to wolves, though both species responded to human disturbance, with roe deer adjusting activity to hunting (18% less diurnal, on average) and chamois reducing diurnality in areas of intense outdoor use (up to 38% difference in diurnality between undisturbed and highly disturbed areas). Red deer, too, were less diurnal (up to 27% difference) and more nocturnal (up to 37% difference) in such highly disturbed areas, as well as near human settlements (up to 42% difference in diurnality between remote areas and villages). Our findings show that wolf recovery can induce detectable diel activity shifts in large herbivores over relatively short timescales, yet responses depend on species biology and behavioural plasticity. Importantly, human risk and disturbance can offset or override these behavioural adjustments, potentially altering the ecosystemic effects of returning large carnivores.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"117 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emily McIntyre, Craig Nitschke, Francisco Encinas- Viso, Tony Mitchell, Camille Truong
The mutualistic interaction between truffle-like ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and mycophagous mammals is fundamental to forest health, supporting fungal dispersal, soil structure, nutrient cycling, and plant community dynamics worldwide. However, climate change may disrupt this mutualism in unprecedented ways by altering truffle-like ECM sporing body production and mycophagous mammal diets, with consequences for fungal spore dispersal and ECM host plant health. As one of the most specialised mycophagous mammals in the world, the endangered marsupial long-footed potoroo Potorous longipes provides a powerful model system to investigate these risks. Using a unique 23-year collection of long-footed potoroo scats from south-eastern Australia, we quantified the diversity and composition of truffle-like ECM fungi in their diet and assessed how it was shaped by intra- and inter-annual shifts in temperature and precipitation. ITS2 metabarcoding of scats revealed a high richness of truffle-like ECM fungi in long-footed potoroo scats, with a total of 38 taxa from 14 genera. The richness of truffle-like ECM fungi consumed by long-footed potoroos was negatively correlated with higher minimum temperatures of the previous quarter and 12 months, and was highest in spring. Seasonality, precipitation, minimum temperature and aridity were the best predictors of truffle-like ECM fungal community composition in long-footed potoroo scats. We found that five truffle-like ECM fungal genera – Mesophellia, Hysterangium, Arcangeliella, Thaxterogaster and Austrogautieria – were associated with specific climate conditions related to temperature and precipitation, providing novel insights into their phenology and dispersal. Our findings suggest that mycophagous mammals may consume far less diverse fungal diets in a warmer and drier future, with a greater reliance on truffle-like ECM fungal genera associated with these conditions such as Mesophellia. These results highlight the sensitivity of this mutualism to climate variability and change, with implications for long-footed potoroo nutrition, dispersal of truffle-like ECM fungi, and ecosystem functioning.
{"title":"Climate variability shapes the mutualistic interaction between truffle-like ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and a mycophagous mammal","authors":"Emily McIntyre, Craig Nitschke, Francisco Encinas- Viso, Tony Mitchell, Camille Truong","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08410","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08410","url":null,"abstract":"The mutualistic interaction between truffle-like ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi and mycophagous mammals is fundamental to forest health, supporting fungal dispersal, soil structure, nutrient cycling, and plant community dynamics worldwide. However, climate change may disrupt this mutualism in unprecedented ways by altering truffle-like ECM sporing body production and mycophagous mammal diets, with consequences for fungal spore dispersal and ECM host plant health. As one of the most specialised mycophagous mammals in the world, the endangered marsupial long-footed potoroo <i>Potorous longipes</i> provides a powerful model system to investigate these risks. Using a unique 23-year collection of long-footed potoroo scats from south-eastern Australia, we quantified the diversity and composition of truffle-like ECM fungi in their diet and assessed how it was shaped by intra- and inter-annual shifts in temperature and precipitation. ITS2 metabarcoding of scats revealed a high richness of truffle-like ECM fungi in long-footed potoroo scats, with a total of 38 taxa from 14 genera. The richness of truffle-like ECM fungi consumed by long-footed potoroos was negatively correlated with higher minimum temperatures of the previous quarter and 12 months, and was highest in spring. Seasonality, precipitation, minimum temperature and aridity were the best predictors of truffle-like ECM fungal community composition in long-footed potoroo scats. We found that five truffle-like ECM fungal genera – <i>Mesophellia</i>, <i>Hysterangium, Arcangeliella, Thaxterogaster</i> and <i>Austrogautieria</i> – were associated with specific climate conditions related to temperature and precipitation, providing novel insights into their phenology and dispersal. Our findings suggest that mycophagous mammals may consume far less diverse fungal diets in a warmer and drier future, with a greater reliance on truffle-like ECM fungal genera associated with these conditions such as <i>Mesophellia</i>. These results highlight the sensitivity of this mutualism to climate variability and change, with implications for long-footed potoroo nutrition, dispersal of truffle-like ECM fungi, and ecosystem functioning.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Biodiversity losses and biotic homogenisation associated with human-induced land-cover changes are key issues for ecology. However, the effects of human-caused land-use changes on biodiversity change at the landscape scale are not well understood. Combining the PREDICTS global biodiversity database with MODIS satellite-based land cover from 2001 to 2013, we created three landscape modification scenarios – relatively natural, partially modified (mixed, e.g. mixtures of crops and natural remnants) and fully modified (transformed, e.g. urban and plantation mosaics) and estimated the landscape-scale alpha, beta and gamma diversity associated with each. Our results reveal that landscape-scale modification from relatively natural landscapes to mixed landscapes increases the variety of ecosystem types and modification levels, hence increasing the variety of ecological communities (beta diversity) and maintaining landscape-level diversity (gamma), despite reductions in average local-level diversity (alpha). However, total transformation (from mixed towards completely transformed landscapes) causes a decline in both alpha and gamma diversity. Our results highlight that anthropogenic modification can potentially increase some elements of biodiversity while decreasing others and that high levels of landscape-scale diversity can be maintained within mixed landscapes.
{"title":"Alpha, beta and gamma diversity in relatively natural, mixed and transformed landscape scenarios","authors":"Shuyu Deng, Colin M. Beale, Chris D. Thomas","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08324","DOIUrl":"10.1002/ecog.08324","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Biodiversity losses and biotic homogenisation associated with human-induced land-cover changes are key issues for ecology. However, the effects of human-caused land-use changes on biodiversity change at the landscape scale are not well understood. Combining the PREDICTS global biodiversity database with MODIS satellite-based land cover from 2001 to 2013, we created three landscape modification scenarios – relatively natural, partially modified (mixed, e.g. mixtures of crops and natural remnants) and fully modified (transformed, e.g. urban and plantation mosaics) and estimated the landscape-scale alpha, beta and gamma diversity associated with each. Our results reveal that landscape-scale modification from relatively natural landscapes to mixed landscapes increases the variety of ecosystem types and modification levels, hence increasing the variety of ecological communities (beta diversity) and maintaining landscape-level diversity (gamma), despite reductions in average local-level diversity (alpha). However, total transformation (from mixed towards completely transformed landscapes) causes a decline in both alpha and gamma diversity. Our results highlight that anthropogenic modification can potentially increase some elements of biodiversity while decreasing others and that high levels of landscape-scale diversity can be maintained within mixed landscapes.</p>","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"2026 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.7,"publicationDate":"2026-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://nsojournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ecog.08324","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146071762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is significantly affecting biodiversity, and organisms that depend on external temperature – such as ectotherms – are particularly vulnerable to these effects. Microhabitats provide refuge for species, thereby reducing exposure to thermal and hydric stress under climate change. Using a mechanistic modelling approach, we assessed how microhabitat variability and physiological traits influence activity behaviour, time spent in preferred temperature, shade selection, and water loss under different climate change scenarios on two green lizard species. We classified study area microhabitats using high‐resolution geospatial data and applied biophysical models to simulate organismal responses under current and future climate change scenarios (+2°C and +4°C). We first calibrated microhabitat‐specific microclimate models using field data and adjusting key parameters that determine surface energy balance and soil heat transfer, including surface roughness height, substrate longwave emissivity, and soil density. We then performed steady‐state ectotherm models and extracted physiological responses such as foraging and basking times, times spent in preferred temperature, selected shade, and water loss under current and projected climate scenarios. Our results revealed differences between species in terms of thermoregulatory and water‐loss dynamics: Timon lepidus showed higher foraging and basking activity, particularly in open rocky microhabitats. In contrast, Lacerta schreiberi relied more on shaded vegetated microhabitats and exhibited higher size‐corrected evaporative water loss. Foraging activity in T. lepidus increased in low‐slope areas, whereas L. schreiberi foraged more in steeper microhabitats, where both species also selected greater shade. Activity increased on south/west slopes, while shade selection was greater on north/west slopes. Activity periods may increase under warming conditions, but this may come at the cost of higher selected shade and water loss. These results go beyond recognizing the buffering role of microhabitats in climate change, by linking fine‐scale thermal and hydric variation to physiological strategies of lizard species. By integrating microclimate and ectotherm models, our work illustrates how species‐specific traits interact with microhabitat heterogeneity to shape differential vulnerability under warming conditions.
{"title":"Physiology–microhabitat matching may help organisms cope with the thermal and hydric challenges under climate change: a tale of two lizards","authors":"Carolina Reyes‐ Puig, Antigoni Kaliontzopoulou, Neftalí Sillero, Urtzi Enriquez‐ Urzelai","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08337","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08337","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is significantly affecting biodiversity, and organisms that depend on external temperature – such as ectotherms – are particularly vulnerable to these effects. Microhabitats provide refuge for species, thereby reducing exposure to thermal and hydric stress under climate change. Using a mechanistic modelling approach, we assessed how microhabitat variability and physiological traits influence activity behaviour, time spent in preferred temperature, shade selection, and water loss under different climate change scenarios on two green lizard species. We classified study area microhabitats using high‐resolution geospatial data and applied biophysical models to simulate organismal responses under current and future climate change scenarios (+2°C and +4°C). We first calibrated microhabitat‐specific microclimate models using field data and adjusting key parameters that determine surface energy balance and soil heat transfer, including surface roughness height, substrate longwave emissivity, and soil density. We then performed steady‐state ectotherm models and extracted physiological responses such as foraging and basking times, times spent in preferred temperature, selected shade, and water loss under current and projected climate scenarios. Our results revealed differences between species in terms of thermoregulatory and water‐loss dynamics: <jats:italic>Timon lepidus</jats:italic> showed higher foraging and basking activity, particularly in open rocky microhabitats. In contrast, <jats:italic>Lacerta schreiberi</jats:italic> relied more on shaded vegetated microhabitats and exhibited higher size‐corrected evaporative water loss. Foraging activity in <jats:italic>T. lepidus</jats:italic> increased in low‐slope areas, whereas <jats:italic>L. schreiberi</jats:italic> foraged more in steeper microhabitats, where both species also selected greater shade. Activity increased on south/west slopes, while shade selection was greater on north/west slopes. Activity periods may increase under warming conditions, but this may come at the cost of higher selected shade and water loss. These results go beyond recognizing the buffering role of microhabitats in climate change, by linking fine‐scale thermal and hydric variation to physiological strategies of lizard species. By integrating microclimate and ectotherm models, our work illustrates how species‐specific traits interact with microhabitat heterogeneity to shape differential vulnerability under warming conditions.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"44 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146070580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Muhammad Ali Nawaz, Shoaib Hameed, Jaffar Ud Din, Hussain Ali, Shakeel Ahmad, Ian Durbach, Mehmood Ghaznavi, Mohsin Farooque, Naeem Iftikhar, Muhammad SamarHussain Khan
The snow leopard Panthera uncia is a flagship species of the greater Himalayan region and symbolizes the integrity of this ecological system. Within the greater Himalayas, Pakistan holds special significance as the north of the country represents a confluence of three major mountain ranges (Hindu Kush, Pamir–Karakoram, and Himalaya). However, robustly surveying and monitoring elusive, low‐density species such as snow leopards has historically been difficult in the region. As a result, our understanding of the spatial patterns in density and overall population size of snow leopards has remained conjectural in Pakistan. This lack of objective information is an obstacle to realizing effective conservation planning for the species in Pakistan, as well as the broader ecosystem within which it plays a key role. This study aimed to empirically derive population estimates for snow leopards in Pakistan, based on extensive camera trapping conducted over a decade (2010–2019), covering about 39% of the species' range across four major mountain ranges in northern Pakistan. A total of 828 cameras were placed over 26 540 trap days, resulting in 4712 photos of snow leopards obtained from 65 different locations. Among the 53 unique individuals identified, the majority (53%) were detected only once, with an overall recapture frequency of 2.28 times per individual. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) was employed for population and density estimation. Model selection strongly favored a model in which density was negatively associated with distance to the closest glacier and positively associated with elevation, and baseline encounter rates were higher in the Pamir–Karakoram region and with Reconyx cameras than in other regions and types of cameras. The estimated population size for snow leopards in Pakistan was 155 (95% CI 100–239), with a mean density of 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) animals per 100 km 2 . This research provides the first robust population estimate for snow leopards in this region, establishing a foundation for long‐term population monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. We recommend the integration of complementary approaches, such as non‐invasive genetic methods, to validate and refine population estimates.
Panthera uncia雪豹是大喜马拉雅地区的旗舰物种，象征着生态系统的完整性。在大喜马拉雅山脉内，巴基斯坦具有特殊的意义，因为该国的北部是三个主要山脉（兴都库什山脉，帕米尔高原-喀喇昆仑山脉和喜马拉雅山脉）的交汇处。然而，在该地区，对雪豹等难以捉摸的低密度物种进行有力的调查和监测一直很困难。因此，我们对巴基斯坦雪豹密度和总体种群规模的空间格局的理解仍然是推测性的。缺乏客观信息是巴基斯坦实现有效的物种保护规划的障碍，也是它在更广泛的生态系统中发挥关键作用的障碍。本研究旨在根据十多年（2010-2019年）进行的广泛相机捕捉，从经验上得出巴基斯坦雪豹的数量估计，覆盖了巴基斯坦北部四个主要山脉约39%的物种范围。在26540个陷阱日里，总共放置了828台相机，从65个不同的地点拍摄了4712张雪豹的照片。在确定的53个独特个体中，大多数（53%）只被检测到一次，每个个体的总体再捕获频率为2.28次。种群和密度估算采用空间捕获-再捕获（SCR）方法。模型选择强烈倾向于密度与最近冰川的距离负相关，与海拔正相关的模型，并且在帕米尔高原-喀喇昆仑地区，使用Reconyx相机的基线遇到率高于其他地区和其他类型的相机。据估计，巴基斯坦雪豹的种群规模为155只（95% CI 100 - 239），平均密度为每100公里0.16只（95% CI 0.10-0.24）。本研究首次提供了该地区雪豹数量的可靠估计，为长期种群监测和评估保护措施的有效性奠定了基础。我们建议整合互补方法，如非侵入性遗传方法，以验证和完善人口估计。
{"title":"From shadows to data: first robust population assessment of snow leopards in Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Ali Nawaz, Shoaib Hameed, Jaffar Ud Din, Hussain Ali, Shakeel Ahmad, Ian Durbach, Mehmood Ghaznavi, Mohsin Farooque, Naeem Iftikhar, Muhammad SamarHussain Khan","doi":"10.1002/ecog.08074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08074","url":null,"abstract":"The snow leopard <jats:italic>Panthera uncia</jats:italic> is a flagship species of the greater Himalayan region and symbolizes the integrity of this ecological system. Within the greater Himalayas, Pakistan holds special significance as the north of the country represents a confluence of three major mountain ranges (Hindu Kush, Pamir–Karakoram, and Himalaya). However, robustly surveying and monitoring elusive, low‐density species such as snow leopards has historically been difficult in the region. As a result, our understanding of the spatial patterns in density and overall population size of snow leopards has remained conjectural in Pakistan. This lack of objective information is an obstacle to realizing effective conservation planning for the species in Pakistan, as well as the broader ecosystem within which it plays a key role. This study aimed to empirically derive population estimates for snow leopards in Pakistan, based on extensive camera trapping conducted over a decade (2010–2019), covering about 39% of the species' range across four major mountain ranges in northern Pakistan. A total of 828 cameras were placed over 26 540 trap days, resulting in 4712 photos of snow leopards obtained from 65 different locations. Among the 53 unique individuals identified, the majority (53%) were detected only once, with an overall recapture frequency of 2.28 times per individual. Spatial capture–recapture (SCR) was employed for population and density estimation. Model selection strongly favored a model in which density was negatively associated with distance to the closest glacier and positively associated with elevation, and baseline encounter rates were higher in the Pamir–Karakoram region and with Reconyx cameras than in other regions and types of cameras. The estimated population size for snow leopards in Pakistan was 155 (95% CI 100–239), with a mean density of 0.16 (95% CI 0.10–0.24) animals per 100 km <jats:sup>2</jats:sup> . This research provides the first robust population estimate for snow leopards in this region, establishing a foundation for long‐term population monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. We recommend the integration of complementary approaches, such as non‐invasive genetic methods, to validate and refine population estimates.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146070579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pilar L. Maia- Braga, Anderson S. Bueno, Marina F. A. Maximiano, Torbjørn Haugaasen, Marina Anciães, John G. Blake, Bette A. Loiselle, Sergio H. Borges, Juliana Menger, Sidnei Dantas, Ramiro D. Melinski, Affonso H. N. Souza, Fernando H. T. de Abreu, Roberta L. Boss, Carlos A. Peres
Species diversity typically increases from higher to lower latitudes, but the regional-scale variation along this geographic gradient remains unclear. It has been suggested that species diversity throughout Amazonia generally increases westward toward the Andes, but this pattern and its environmental determinants require further investigation for most taxa. Using mist-net data on understorey birds, we evaluated patterns of species richness using two approaches by addressing methodological issues that influence local species richness and the determinants of species richness across Pan-Amazonia. Specifically, we examined 1) the disparity between observed and expected species richness obtained from geographic range maps; 2) how species eco-morphological traits influence their detection and relative abundance; 3) the spatial variation in estimated local species richness after controlling for sampling effort; and 4) the environmental determinants of estimated richness. We found no evidence for a longitudinal westward increase in estimated species richness, but there was a marked difference between the northern and southern banks of the Amazon River. Species detection and abundance were modestly explained by species traits, and estimated richness was weakly associated with latitude, aboveground biomass and climatic aridity. We found that observed variation in the local species richness was primarily driven by differences in sampling effort, while estimated species richness showed modest variation across large spatial scales and was poorly explained by environmental and spatial gradients. Despite wide variation in local species richness, we conclude that at broader scales, species richness of understorey bird assemblages was surprisingly stable across Pan-Amazonia, suggesting that evolutionary processes may be important in determining these patterns at larger scales.
{"title":"Patterns of understorey bird diversity across Amazonian forests: survey effort and range maps predict local species richness","authors":"Pilar L. Maia- Braga, Anderson S. Bueno, Marina F. A. Maximiano, Torbjørn Haugaasen, Marina Anciães, John G. Blake, Bette A. Loiselle, Sergio H. Borges, Juliana Menger, Sidnei Dantas, Ramiro D. Melinski, Affonso H. N. Souza, Fernando H. T. de Abreu, Roberta L. Boss, Carlos A. Peres","doi":"10.1002/ecog.07625","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.07625","url":null,"abstract":"Species diversity typically increases from higher to lower latitudes, but the regional-scale variation along this geographic gradient remains unclear. It has been suggested that species diversity throughout Amazonia generally increases westward toward the Andes, but this pattern and its environmental determinants require further investigation for most taxa. Using mist-net data on understorey birds, we evaluated patterns of species richness using two approaches by addressing methodological issues that influence local species richness and the determinants of species richness across Pan-Amazonia. Specifically, we examined 1) the disparity between observed and expected species richness obtained from geographic range maps; 2) how species eco-morphological traits influence their detection and relative abundance; 3) the spatial variation in estimated local species richness after controlling for sampling effort; and 4) the environmental determinants of estimated richness. We found no evidence for a longitudinal westward increase in estimated species richness, but there was a marked difference between the northern and southern banks of the Amazon River. Species detection and abundance were modestly explained by species traits, and estimated richness was weakly associated with latitude, aboveground biomass and climatic aridity. We found that observed variation in the local species richness was primarily driven by differences in sampling effort, while estimated species richness showed modest variation across large spatial scales and was poorly explained by environmental and spatial gradients. Despite wide variation in local species richness, we conclude that at broader scales, species richness of understorey bird assemblages was surprisingly stable across Pan-Amazonia, suggesting that evolutionary processes may be important in determining these patterns at larger scales.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146022171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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