Christian Neumann, Tuanjit Sritongchuay, Ralf Seppelt
There is well‐established evidence that land use is the main driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss. In contrast, the combined effects of land‐use and climate changes on food webs, particularly on terrestrial trophic networks, are understudied. In this study, we investigate the combined effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation) and land‐use intensification on food webs using a process‐based general mechanistic ecosystem model (‘MadingleyR'). We simulated the ecosystem dynamics of four regions in different climatic zones (Brazil, Namibia, Finland and France) according to trait‐based functional groups of species (ectothermic and endothermic herbivores, carnivores and omnivores). The simulation results were consistent across the selected regions, with land‐use intensification negatively affecting endotherms, whereas ectotherms were under increased pressure from rising temperatures. Land‐use intensification led to the downsizing of endotherms, and thus, to smaller organisms in the food web. In combination with climate change, land‐use intensification had the greatest effect on higher trophic levels, culminating in the extinction of endothermic carnivores in Namibia and Finland and endothermic omnivores in Namibia. Arid and tropical regions showed a slightly higher response of total biomass to climate change under a high‐emissions scenario with rising temperatures, whereas areas with low net primary productivity showed the most negative response to land‐use intensification. Our results suggest that 1) further land‐use intensification will significantly affect larger organisms and predators, leading to a major restructuring of global food webs. 2) Arid low‐productivity regions will experience significant changes in community composition due to global change. 3) Climate changes appear to have slightly greater effects in tropical and arid climates, whereas land‐use intensification tends to affect less productive environments. This paper shows how general ecosystem models deepen our understanding of multitrophic interactions and how climate change or land‐use drivers affect ecosystems in different biomes.
{"title":"Model‐based impact analysis of climate change and land‐use intensification on trophic networks","authors":"Christian Neumann, Tuanjit Sritongchuay, Ralf Seppelt","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07533","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07533","url":null,"abstract":"There is well‐established evidence that land use is the main driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss. In contrast, the combined effects of land‐use and climate changes on food webs, particularly on terrestrial trophic networks, are understudied. In this study, we investigate the combined effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation) and land‐use intensification on food webs using a process‐based general mechanistic ecosystem model (‘MadingleyR'). We simulated the ecosystem dynamics of four regions in different climatic zones (Brazil, Namibia, Finland and France) according to trait‐based functional groups of species (ectothermic and endothermic herbivores, carnivores and omnivores). The simulation results were consistent across the selected regions, with land‐use intensification negatively affecting endotherms, whereas ectotherms were under increased pressure from rising temperatures. Land‐use intensification led to the downsizing of endotherms, and thus, to smaller organisms in the food web. In combination with climate change, land‐use intensification had the greatest effect on higher trophic levels, culminating in the extinction of endothermic carnivores in Namibia and Finland and endothermic omnivores in Namibia. Arid and tropical regions showed a slightly higher response of total biomass to climate change under a high‐emissions scenario with rising temperatures, whereas areas with low net primary productivity showed the most negative response to land‐use intensification. Our results suggest that 1) further land‐use intensification will significantly affect larger organisms and predators, leading to a major restructuring of global food webs. 2) Arid low‐productivity regions will experience significant changes in community composition due to global change. 3) Climate changes appear to have slightly greater effects in tropical and arid climates, whereas land‐use intensification tends to affect less productive environments. This paper shows how general ecosystem models deepen our understanding of multitrophic interactions and how climate change or land‐use drivers affect ecosystems in different biomes.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142841451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Casey Visintin, Trent D. Penman
Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of these complex interactions for different plant functional types under future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species across two functional plant types, obligate seeder and facultative resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over 7000 km2 in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes under six different future climates representing different temperature and precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire management prioritisation for species into the future.
{"title":"Demographic processes and fire regimes interact to influence plant population persistence under changing climates","authors":"Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Lauren T. Bennett, Casey Visintin, Trent D. Penman","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07502","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07502","url":null,"abstract":"Individual and interactive effects of changing climate and shifting fire regimes are influencing many plant species across the globe. Climate change will likely have significant impacts on plant population viability over time by altering environmental conditions and wildfire regimes as well as influencing species demographic traits. However, the outcomes of these complex interactions for different plant functional types under future climate conditions have been rarely examined. We used a proof-of-concept case-study approach to model multiple plant species across two functional plant types, obligate seeder and facultative resprouter, to examine the interactive effects of demographic shifts and fire regime change on population persistence across two landscapes of over 7000 km<sup>2</sup> in temperate southeastern Australia. Our approach involves a novel combination of a fire regime simulation tool with a spatially explicit population viability analysis model. We simulated fire regimes under six different future climates representing different temperature and precipitation shifts and combined them with 16 hypothetical plant demographic change scenarios, characterised by changes to individual or multiple plant demographic processes. Plant populations were more likely to decline or become extinct due to changes in demographic processes than in the fire regime alone. Although both functional types were vulnerable to climate-induced changes in demography, obligate seeder persistence was also negatively influenced by future fire regimes characterised by shorter fire intervals. Integrating fire regime simulations with spatially explicit population viability analyses increased our capacity to identify those plant functional types most at risk of extinction, and why, as fire regimes change with climate change. This flexible framework is a first step in exploring the complex interactions that will determine plant viability under changing climates and will improve research and fire management prioritisation for species into the future.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shannon R. Conradie, Blair O. Wolf, Susan J. Cunningham, Amanda Bourne, Tanja van de Ven, Amanda R. Ridley, Andrew E. McKechnie
Climate change threatens biodiversity by compromising the ability to balance energy and water, influencing animal behaviour, species interactions, distribution and ultimately survival. Predicting climate change effects on thermal physiology is complicated by interspecific variation in thermal tolerance limits, thermoregulatory behaviour and heterogenous thermal landscapes. We develop an approach for assessing thermal vulnerability for endotherms by incorporating behaviour and microsite data into a biophysical model. We parameterised the model using species-specific functional traits and published behavioural data on hotter (maximum daily temperature, Tmax > 35°C) and cooler days (Tmax < 35°C). Incorporating continuous time-activity focal observations of behaviour into the biophysical approach reveals that the three insectivorous birds modelled here are at greater risk of lethal hyperthermia than dehydration under climate change, contrary to previous thermal risk assessments. Southern yellow-billed hornbills Tockus leucomelas, southern pied babblers Turdoides bicolor and southern fiscals Lanius collaris are predicted to experience a risk of lethal hyperthermia on ~ 24, 65 and 40 more days year−1, respectively, in 2100 relative to current conditions. Maintaining water balance may also become increasingly challenging. Babblers are predicted to experience a 57% increase (to ~186 days year−1) in exposure to conditions associated with net negative 24 h water balance in the absence of drinking, with ~ 86 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Hornbills and fiscals are predicted to experience ~ 84 and 100 days year−1, respectively, associated with net negative 24 h water balance, with ≤ 20 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Integrating continuous time-activity focal data is vital to understand and predict thermal challenges animals likely experience. We provide a comprehensive thermal risk assessment and emphasise the importance of thermoregulatory and drinking behaviour for endotherm persistence in coming decades.
{"title":"Integrating fine-scale behaviour and microclimate data into biophysical models highlights the risk of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration","authors":"Shannon R. Conradie, Blair O. Wolf, Susan J. Cunningham, Amanda Bourne, Tanja van de Ven, Amanda R. Ridley, Andrew E. McKechnie","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07432","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change threatens biodiversity by compromising the ability to balance energy and water, influencing animal behaviour, species interactions, distribution and ultimately survival. Predicting climate change effects on thermal physiology is complicated by interspecific variation in thermal tolerance limits, thermoregulatory behaviour and heterogenous thermal landscapes. We develop an approach for assessing thermal vulnerability for endotherms by incorporating behaviour and microsite data into a biophysical model. We parameterised the model using species-specific functional traits and published behavioural data on hotter (maximum daily temperature, <i>T</i><sub>max</sub> > 35°C) and cooler days (<i>T</i><sub>max</sub> < 35°C). Incorporating continuous time-activity focal observations of behaviour into the biophysical approach reveals that the three insectivorous birds modelled here are at greater risk of lethal hyperthermia than dehydration under climate change, contrary to previous thermal risk assessments. Southern yellow-billed hornbills <i>Tockus leucomelas</i>, southern pied babblers <i>Turdoides bicolor</i> and southern fiscals <i>Lanius collaris</i> are predicted to experience a risk of lethal hyperthermia on ~ 24, 65 and 40 more days year<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, in 2100 relative to current conditions. Maintaining water balance may also become increasingly challenging. Babblers are predicted to experience a 57% increase (to ~186 days year<sup>−1</sup>) in exposure to conditions associated with net negative 24 h water balance in the absence of drinking, with ~ 86 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Hornbills and fiscals are predicted to experience ~ 84 and 100 days year<sup>−1</sup>, respectively, associated with net negative 24 h water balance, with ≤ 20 of those days associated with a risk of lethal dehydration. Integrating continuous time-activity focal data is vital to understand and predict thermal challenges animals likely experience. We provide a comprehensive thermal risk assessment and emphasise the importance of thermoregulatory and drinking behaviour for endotherm persistence in coming decades.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anran Fan, Steven Ni, Graham A. McCulloch, Jonathan M. Waters
Major disturbance events can profoundly influence biodiversity patterns, although the extent to which such shifts are predictable remains poorly understood. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) to compare forested versus recently deforested stream insect communities across disjunct regions of New Zealand, to test for parallel shifts in response to widescale disturbance. Although eDNA analyses revealed highly distinct species pools across regions, they detected concordant functional diversity shifts linked to recent deforestation, including parallel decreases in the diversity of grazing taxa. The finding that taxonomically distinct freshwater biotas have experienced broadly concordant functional shifts in the wake of deforestation indicates that disturbance can drive deterministic ecological change. By contrast, the finding that some closely related species within functional groups show discordant responses to deforestation suggests that ecological differentiation among cryptic taxa may contribute to idiosyncratic shifts. These findings highlight the potential of eDNA for resolving subtle species-level differences among anthropogenically impacted ecological assemblages.
{"title":"Disturbance drives concordant functional biodiversity shifts across regions: new evidence from river eDNA","authors":"Anran Fan, Steven Ni, Graham A. McCulloch, Jonathan M. Waters","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07264","url":null,"abstract":"Major disturbance events can profoundly influence biodiversity patterns, although the extent to which such shifts are predictable remains poorly understood. We used environmental DNA (eDNA) to compare forested versus recently deforested stream insect communities across disjunct regions of New Zealand, to test for parallel shifts in response to widescale disturbance. Although eDNA analyses revealed highly distinct species pools across regions, they detected concordant functional diversity shifts linked to recent deforestation, including parallel decreases in the diversity of grazing taxa. The finding that taxonomically distinct freshwater biotas have experienced broadly concordant functional shifts in the wake of deforestation indicates that disturbance can drive deterministic ecological change. By contrast, the finding that some closely related species within functional groups show discordant responses to deforestation suggests that ecological differentiation among cryptic taxa may contribute to idiosyncratic shifts. These findings highlight the potential of eDNA for resolving subtle species-level differences among anthropogenically impacted ecological assemblages.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Helen R. Sofaer, Demetra A. Williams, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Keana S. Shadwell, Caroline M. Kittle, Ian S. Pearse, Lucas Berio Fortini, Kelsey C. Brock
Quickly locating new populations of non-native species can reduce the ecological and economic costs of species invasions. However, the difficulty of predicting which new non-native species will establish, and where, has limited active post-border biosurveillance efforts. Because pathways of introduction underlie spatial patterns of establishment risk, an intuitive approach is to search for new non-native species in areas where many non-native species have first been detected in the past. We formalize this intuition via first records distribution models (FRDMs), which apply species distribution modeling methods to the collection of first occurrence records across species (i.e. one record per species). We define FRDMs as statistical models that quantify environmental conditions associated with species' first naturalized records to predict spatial patterns of establishment risk. We model the first records of non-native plants in the conterminous USA as a proof-of-concept. The novelty of FRDMs is that their inferences apply not just to the species that contributed data; they provide a rigorous framework for predicting hotspots of invasion for new non-native taxa that share a pathway of introduction with the modeled species. FRDMs can guide survey efforts for new non-native taxa at multiple scales and across ecosystems.
{"title":"First records distribution models to guide biosurveillance for non-native species","authors":"Helen R. Sofaer, Demetra A. Williams, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Keana S. Shadwell, Caroline M. Kittle, Ian S. Pearse, Lucas Berio Fortini, Kelsey C. Brock","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07522","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07522","url":null,"abstract":"Quickly locating new populations of non-native species can reduce the ecological and economic costs of species invasions. However, the difficulty of predicting which new non-native species will establish, and where, has limited active post-border biosurveillance efforts. Because pathways of introduction underlie spatial patterns of establishment risk, an intuitive approach is to search for new non-native species in areas where many non-native species have first been detected in the past. We formalize this intuition via first records distribution models (FRDMs), which apply species distribution modeling methods to the collection of first occurrence records across species (i.e. one record per species). We define FRDMs as statistical models that quantify environmental conditions associated with species' first naturalized records to predict spatial patterns of establishment risk. We model the first records of non-native plants in the conterminous USA as a proof-of-concept. The novelty of FRDMs is that their inferences apply not just to the species that contributed data; they provide a rigorous framework for predicting hotspots of invasion for new non-native taxa that share a pathway of introduction with the modeled species. FRDMs can guide survey efforts for new non-native taxa at multiple scales and across ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825016","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wenqiang Gao, Maowei Liang, Wenhua Xiang, Liyong Fu, Hong Guo, Xiao He, Ram P. Sharma, Zhicheng Chen, Yutang Li, Mengli Zhou, Jie Lan, Dongli Gao, Xiangdong Lei
Increasing evidence shows that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships (BEFs) become stronger as forests develop, but much of the evidence is drawn from experiments (less than 30 years). How the biodiversity effects vary with stand development stages remains largely unexplored. Using a large temperate forest dataset with 2392 permanent plots in northeastern China, we examined the relationships between biodiversity (i.e. tree species richness, functional diversity, and functional composition) and aboveground biomass (AGB) across different development stages of temperate forests (covering all stages from young to overmature forests). Specifically, the complementarity and mass-ratio effects across different forest development stages were evaluated to elucidate emerging patterns that explain ecosystem functioning. We observed positive BEFs using both tree species richness and functional diversity, but these positive effects decreased with forest development. However, the effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) on AGB showed two peaks in young and mature stands. Interestingly, the effects of CWM on AGB became larger than the effects of functional diversity after the forests developed to near-mature/mature stands, indicating that BEFs are driven by mass-ratio effects (i.e. dominant tree species) rather than niche complementarity in old stands. The high AGB in young stands was characterized by tree species with high resource acquisition ability, however, in old stands, it was associated with tree species with both high resource acquisition ability and conservative traits. Our findings indicate how the developmental stage influences the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning in natural forests. The findings tentatively advocate for a mechanistic framework of BEFs covering all developmental stages of temperate forests, which could facilitate the formulation of effective strategies for enhancing ecosystem functioning at different development stages.
{"title":"Development stage-dependent effects of biodiversity on aboveground biomass of temperate forests","authors":"Wenqiang Gao, Maowei Liang, Wenhua Xiang, Liyong Fu, Hong Guo, Xiao He, Ram P. Sharma, Zhicheng Chen, Yutang Li, Mengli Zhou, Jie Lan, Dongli Gao, Xiangdong Lei","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07414","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07414","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing evidence shows that biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships (BEFs) become stronger as forests develop, but much of the evidence is drawn from experiments (less than 30 years). How the biodiversity effects vary with stand development stages remains largely unexplored. Using a large temperate forest dataset with 2392 permanent plots in northeastern China, we examined the relationships between biodiversity (i.e. tree species richness, functional diversity, and functional composition) and aboveground biomass (AGB) across different development stages of temperate forests (covering all stages from young to overmature forests). Specifically, the complementarity and mass-ratio effects across different forest development stages were evaluated to elucidate emerging patterns that explain ecosystem functioning. We observed positive BEFs using both tree species richness and functional diversity, but these positive effects decreased with forest development. However, the effects of community-weighted mean (CWM) on AGB showed two peaks in young and mature stands. Interestingly, the effects of CWM on AGB became larger than the effects of functional diversity after the forests developed to near-mature/mature stands, indicating that BEFs are driven by mass-ratio effects (i.e. dominant tree species) rather than niche complementarity in old stands. The high AGB in young stands was characterized by tree species with high resource acquisition ability, however, in old stands, it was associated with tree species with both high resource acquisition ability and conservative traits. Our findings indicate how the developmental stage influences the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning in natural forests. The findings tentatively advocate for a mechanistic framework of BEFs covering all developmental stages of temperate forests, which could facilitate the formulation of effective strategies for enhancing ecosystem functioning at different development stages.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"116 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Fengyuan Li, Tongyao Jiang, Wei Zhang, Shuqiang Li
Relative to its size, tropical Asia is likely to be the richest region in terms of biodiversity. However, the factors of species diversity formation and maintenance in Southeast (SE) Asia and neighboring regions remain poorly understood. Here we infer the evolutionary relationships within psilodercid spiders by incorporating fossil information into a robust, unprecedentedly complete species-level phylogeny of 202 extant species to explore potential abiotic drivers and ecological features underlying their stable diversification history. The combination of extant and extinct historical biogeographic data indicates that in situ speciation is the predominant form of diversification in tropical Asia but diverse Cretaceous psilodercids in Myanmar ambers were replaced by other biogeographical lineages during the northward movements of the Burma Terrane. Furthermore, our diversification analyses show no diversification rate changes through time and across geographic space in this family, but the genus Althepus displays an accelerated rate of species diversification driven by the remarkable expansion of leg length. Trait evolution analysis shows that ecological trait divergence contributes to the diversification and accumulation of tropical spiders by facilitating species coexistence. These findings provide empirical evidence that the ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time scales is key to forming species diversity hotspots in SE Asia. Thus, this study integrating molecular evidence and paleontological interpretation provides a new framework for understanding the evolution of tropical species diversity.
{"title":"Ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time underlies the origin and maintenance of tropical spider diversity","authors":"Fengyuan Li, Tongyao Jiang, Wei Zhang, Shuqiang Li","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07586","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07586","url":null,"abstract":"Relative to its size, tropical Asia is likely to be the richest region in terms of biodiversity. However, the factors of species diversity formation and maintenance in Southeast (SE) Asia and neighboring regions remain poorly understood. Here we infer the evolutionary relationships within psilodercid spiders by incorporating fossil information into a robust, unprecedentedly complete species-level phylogeny of 202 extant species to explore potential abiotic drivers and ecological features underlying their stable diversification history. The combination of extant and extinct historical biogeographic data indicates that in situ speciation is the predominant form of diversification in tropical Asia but diverse Cretaceous psilodercids in Myanmar ambers were replaced by other biogeographical lineages during the northward movements of the Burma Terrane. Furthermore, our diversification analyses show no diversification rate changes through time and across geographic space in this family, but the genus <i>Althepus</i> displays an accelerated rate of species diversification driven by the remarkable expansion of leg length. Trait evolution analysis shows that ecological trait divergence contributes to the diversification and accumulation of tropical spiders by facilitating species coexistence. These findings provide empirical evidence that the ecological trait divergence over evolutionary time scales is key to forming species diversity hotspots in SE Asia. Thus, this study integrating molecular evidence and paleontological interpretation provides a new framework for understanding the evolution of tropical species diversity.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142825018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andrew Houldcroft, Finn Lindgren, Américo Sanhá, Maimuna Jaló, Aissa Regalla de Barros, Kimberley J. Hockings, Elena Bersacola
Shared landscapes in which humans and wildlife coexist, are increasingly recognized as integral to conservation. Fine-scale data on the distribution and density of threatened wildlife are therefore critical to promote long-term coexistence. Yet, the spatial complexity of habitat, anthropic threats and animal behaviour in shared landscapes challenges conventional survey techniques. For social wildlife in particular, the size of sub-groups or clusters is likely to both vary in space and influence detectability, biasing density estimation and spatial prediction. Using the R package ‘inlabru', we develop a full-likelihood joint log-Gaussian Cox process to simultaneously perform spatial distance sampling and model a spatially varying cluster size distribution, which we condition upon detection probability to mitigate cluster-size detection bias. We accommodate spatial dependencies by incorporating a non-stationary Gaussian Markov random field, enabling the explicit inclusion of geographical barriers to wildlife dispersal. We demonstrate this model using 136 georeferenced detections of Campbell's monkey Cercopithecus campbelli clusters, collected with 398.56 km of line transects across a shared agroforest landscape mosaic (1067 km2) in Guinea-Bissau. We assess a suite of anthropogenic and environmental spatial covariates, finding that normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and proximity to mangroves are both powerful spatial predictors of density. We captured strong spatial variation in cluster size, likely driven by fission–fusion in response to the complex distribution of resources and risk in the landscape. If left unaccounted for under existing approaches, such variation may bias density surface estimation. We estimate a population of 10 301 (95% CI [7606–14 104]) individuals and produce a fine-scale predictive density map, revealing the importance of mangrove-habitat interfaces for the conservation of this heavily hunted primate. This work demonstrates a powerful, widely applicable approach for monitoring socially flexible wildlife and informing evidence-based conservation in complex, heterogeneous landscapes moving forward.
人类与野生动物共存的共享景观越来越被认为是保护工作不可或缺的一部分。因此，有关受威胁野生动物分布和密度的精细数据对于促进长期共存至关重要。然而，共享景观中栖息地、人类威胁和动物行为的空间复杂性对传统调查技术提出了挑战。特别是对于社会性野生动物来说，子群或集群的大小既可能在空间中变化，也可能影响可探测性，从而使密度估计和空间预测产生偏差。利用 R 软件包 "inlabru"，我们开发了一个全似然联合对数-高斯 Cox 过程，以同时进行空间距离采样和模拟空间变化的集群规模分布，并将其作为检测概率的条件，以减轻集群规模检测偏差。我们通过纳入非稳态高斯马尔科夫随机场来适应空间依赖性，从而能够明确纳入野生动物扩散的地理障碍。我们使用了 136 个坎贝尔猴集群的地理参照检测结果来证明这一模型，这些检测结果是在几内亚比绍的一个共享农林景观镶嵌区（1067 平方公里）中通过 398.56 千米的线段采集的。我们对一系列人为和环境空间协变量进行了评估，发现归一化差异植被指数（NDVI）和靠近红树林的程度都是密度的有力空间预测因素。我们捕捉到了集群规模的强烈空间变化，这可能是由于地貌中资源和风险的复杂分布导致的裂变融合。如果不考虑现有的方法，这种变化可能会使密度面的估计出现偏差。我们估算了一个 10 301（95% CI [7606-14 104]）只的种群，并绘制了一张精细的预测密度图，揭示了红树林-栖息地界面对保护这种被大量猎杀的灵长类动物的重要性。这项工作展示了一种强大、广泛适用的方法，可用于监测具有社会灵活性的野生动物，并为复杂、异质地貌中的循证保护工作提供信息。
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Scott W. Forrest, Dan Pagendam, Michael Bode, Christopher Drovandi, Jonathan R. Potts, Justin Perry, Eric Vanderduys, Andrew J. Hoskins
Understanding and predicting animal movement is fundamental to ecology and conservation management. Models that estimate and then predict animal movement and habitat selection parameters underpin diverse conservation applications, from mitigating invasive species spread to enhancing landscape connectivity. However, many predictive models overlook fine-scale temporal dynamics within their predictions, despite animals often displaying fine-scale behavioural variability that might significantly alter their movement, habitat selection and distribution over time. Incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics, such as circadian rhythms, within predictive models might reduce the averaging out of such behaviours, thereby enhancing our ability to make predictions in both the short and long term. We tested whether the inclusion of fine-scale temporal dynamics improved both fine-scale (hourly) and long-term (seasonal) spatial predictions for a significant invasive species of northern Australia, the water buffalo Bubalus bubalis. Water buffalo require intensive management actions over vast, remote areas and display distinct circadian rhythms linked to habitat use. To inform management operations we generated hourly and dry season prediction maps by simulating trajectories from static and temporally dynamic step selection functions (SSFs) that were fitted to the GPS data of 13 water buffalo. We found that simulations generated from temporally dynamic models replicated the buffalo crepuscular movement patterns and dynamic habitat selection, resulting in more informative and accurate hourly predictions. Additionally, when the simulations were aggregated into long-term predictions, the dynamic models were more accurate and better able to highlight areas of concentrated habitat use that might indicate high-risk areas for environmental damage. Our findings emphasise the importance of incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics in predictive models for species with clear dynamic behavioural patterns. By integrating temporally dynamic processes into animal movement trajectories, we demonstrate an approach that can enhance conservation management strategies and deepen our understanding of ecological and behavioural patterns across multiple timescales.
{"title":"Predicting fine-scale distributions and emergent spatiotemporal patterns from temporally dynamic step selection simulations","authors":"Scott W. Forrest, Dan Pagendam, Michael Bode, Christopher Drovandi, Jonathan R. Potts, Justin Perry, Eric Vanderduys, Andrew J. Hoskins","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07421","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding and predicting animal movement is fundamental to ecology and conservation management. Models that estimate and then predict animal movement and habitat selection parameters underpin diverse conservation applications, from mitigating invasive species spread to enhancing landscape connectivity. However, many predictive models overlook fine-scale temporal dynamics within their predictions, despite animals often displaying fine-scale behavioural variability that might significantly alter their movement, habitat selection and distribution over time. Incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics, such as circadian rhythms, within predictive models might reduce the averaging out of such behaviours, thereby enhancing our ability to make predictions in both the short and long term. We tested whether the inclusion of fine-scale temporal dynamics improved both fine-scale (hourly) and long-term (seasonal) spatial predictions for a significant invasive species of northern Australia, the water buffalo <i>Bubalus bubalis</i>. Water buffalo require intensive management actions over vast, remote areas and display distinct circadian rhythms linked to habitat use. To inform management operations we generated hourly and dry season prediction maps by simulating trajectories from static and temporally dynamic step selection functions (SSFs) that were fitted to the GPS data of 13 water buffalo. We found that simulations generated from temporally dynamic models replicated the buffalo crepuscular movement patterns and dynamic habitat selection, resulting in more informative and accurate hourly predictions. Additionally, when the simulations were aggregated into long-term predictions, the dynamic models were more accurate and better able to highlight areas of concentrated habitat use that might indicate high-risk areas for environmental damage. Our findings emphasise the importance of incorporating fine-scale temporal dynamics in predictive models for species with clear dynamic behavioural patterns. By integrating temporally dynamic processes into animal movement trajectories, we demonstrate an approach that can enhance conservation management strategies and deepen our understanding of ecological and behavioural patterns across multiple timescales.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142810177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Magda Argueta-Guzmán, Quinn S. McFrederick, Marko J. Spasojevic
Theoretical frameworks of terrestrial community assembly often focus on single trophic levels (e.g. plants) without considering how complex interdependencies across different trophic levels influence assembly mechanisms. Yet, when multiple trophic levels are considered (e.g. plant–pollinator, plant–microbe interactions) the focus is typically on network analyses at local spatial scales. As spatial variation in biodiversity (β-diversity) is increasingly being recognized for its relevance in understanding community assembly and conservation, considering how β-diversity at one trophic level may be influenced by assembly processes that alter abundance and composition of interacting communities at a different trophic level (multitrophic dependency) is critical. Here, we build on single trophic level community assembly frameworks to explore the assembly processes affecting β-diversity in multitrophic communities comprising flowering plants, their bee pollinators, and the corresponding bee-gut microbiota to better understand the importance of multitrophic dependency in community assembly. Using distance-based redundancy analysis and variation partitioning, we investigated community assembly processes across three interconnected trophic levels in two ecological regions in southern California: the Santa Monica Mountains and three islands of the Channel Island Archipelago. We found that the deterministic effects of multitrophic dependency are stronger on directly connected trophic levels than on indirectly connected trophic levels (i.e. flowers explain bee communities and bees explain bee-gut bacteria communities, but flowers weakly explain variation in bee-gut bacteria communities). We also found notable regional variation, where multitrophic dependency was weaker on the Channel Islands as ecological drift was more pronounced. Our results suggest that integrating the influence of multitrophic dependency on community assembly is important for elucidating drivers of β-diversity and that multitrophic dependency can be determined by the regional context in which β-diversity is measured. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of considering multiscale perspectives – both multitrophic and multiregional – in community assembly to fully elucidate assembly processes.
{"title":"Multitrophic assembly influences β-diversity across a tripartite system of flowering plants, bees, and bee-gut microbiomes","authors":"Magda Argueta-Guzmán, Quinn S. McFrederick, Marko J. Spasojevic","doi":"10.1111/ecog.07490","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07490","url":null,"abstract":"Theoretical frameworks of terrestrial community assembly often focus on single trophic levels (e.g. plants) without considering how complex interdependencies across different trophic levels influence assembly mechanisms. Yet, when multiple trophic levels are considered (e.g. plant–pollinator, plant–microbe interactions) the focus is typically on network analyses at local spatial scales. As spatial variation in biodiversity (β-diversity) is increasingly being recognized for its relevance in understanding community assembly and conservation, considering how β-diversity at one trophic level may be influenced by assembly processes that alter abundance and composition of interacting communities at a different trophic level (multitrophic dependency) is critical. Here, we build on single trophic level community assembly frameworks to explore the assembly processes affecting β-diversity in multitrophic communities comprising flowering plants, their bee pollinators, and the corresponding bee-gut microbiota to better understand the importance of multitrophic dependency in community assembly. Using distance-based redundancy analysis and variation partitioning, we investigated community assembly processes across three interconnected trophic levels in two ecological regions in southern California: the Santa Monica Mountains and three islands of the Channel Island Archipelago. We found that the deterministic effects of multitrophic dependency are stronger on directly connected trophic levels than on indirectly connected trophic levels (i.e. flowers explain bee communities and bees explain bee-gut bacteria communities, but flowers weakly explain variation in bee-gut bacteria communities). We also found notable regional variation, where multitrophic dependency was weaker on the Channel Islands as ecological drift was more pronounced. Our results suggest that integrating the influence of multitrophic dependency on community assembly is important for elucidating drivers of β-diversity and that multitrophic dependency can be determined by the regional context in which β-diversity is measured. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of considering multiscale perspectives – both multitrophic and multiregional – in community assembly to fully elucidate assembly processes.","PeriodicalId":51026,"journal":{"name":"Ecography","volume":"41 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142797798","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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