Abstract Data collection staff involved in sampling designs, monitoring and analysis of surveys often have a good sense of the response rate that can be expected in a survey, even when this survey is new or done at a relatively low frequency. They make expectations of response rates, and, subsequently, costs on an almost continuous basis. Rarely, however, are these expectations formally structured. Furthermore, the expectations usually are point estimates without any assessment of precision or uncertainty. In recent years, the interest in adaptive survey designs has increased. These designs lean heavily on accurate estimates of response rates and costs. In order to account for inaccurate estimates, a Bayesian analysis of survey design parameters is very sensible. The combination of strong intrinsic knowledge of data collection staff and a Bayesian analysis is a natural next step. In this article, prior elicitation is developed for design parameters with the help of data collection staff. The elicitation is applied to two case studies in which surveys underwent a major redesign and direct historic survey data was unavailable.
{"title":"Data Collection Expert Prior Elicitation in Survey Design: Two Case Studies","authors":"Shiya Wu, B. Schouten, R. Meijers, M. Moerbeek","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Data collection staff involved in sampling designs, monitoring and analysis of surveys often have a good sense of the response rate that can be expected in a survey, even when this survey is new or done at a relatively low frequency. They make expectations of response rates, and, subsequently, costs on an almost continuous basis. Rarely, however, are these expectations formally structured. Furthermore, the expectations usually are point estimates without any assessment of precision or uncertainty. In recent years, the interest in adaptive survey designs has increased. These designs lean heavily on accurate estimates of response rates and costs. In order to account for inaccurate estimates, a Bayesian analysis of survey design parameters is very sensible. The combination of strong intrinsic knowledge of data collection staff and a Bayesian analysis is a natural next step. In this article, prior elicitation is developed for design parameters with the help of data collection staff. The elicitation is applied to two case studies in which surveys underwent a major redesign and direct historic survey data was unavailable.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42770038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.
{"title":"Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates","authors":"Baoline Chen, T. McElroy, Osbert Pang","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43805858","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The provision of translated field instruments is a crucial aspect to reduce response burden and subsequently increase data quality in surveys with a multi-linguistic target population such as surveys on recent immigrants. Failure to address this can result in a mismatch between the survey language and the respondent’s mother tongue. By using a survey on refugees in Germany, this article explores the correlation of the absence of the respondents’ mother tongue on item nonresponse – a crucial aspect of data quality. Further, this article investigates whether supplementary audio recordings in the same language as the written questions can reduce item nonresponse when the mother tongue is not available. To answer the research questions, all missing answers per individual are counted and analyzed by means of poisson regression analyses. In a second step, the likelihood of item-nonresponse for single items is estimated as well. Results show that a language mismatch as well as the usage of audio recordings increase item nonresponse.
{"title":"If They Don’t Understand the Question, They Don’t answer. Language Mismatch in Face-to-Face Interviews","authors":"Jannes Jacobsen","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0022","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The provision of translated field instruments is a crucial aspect to reduce response burden and subsequently increase data quality in surveys with a multi-linguistic target population such as surveys on recent immigrants. Failure to address this can result in a mismatch between the survey language and the respondent’s mother tongue. By using a survey on refugees in Germany, this article explores the correlation of the absence of the respondents’ mother tongue on item nonresponse – a crucial aspect of data quality. Further, this article investigates whether supplementary audio recordings in the same language as the written questions can reduce item nonresponse when the mother tongue is not available. To answer the research questions, all missing answers per individual are counted and analyzed by means of poisson regression analyses. In a second step, the likelihood of item-nonresponse for single items is estimated as well. Results show that a language mismatch as well as the usage of audio recordings increase item nonresponse.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48733121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Most National Statistical Institutes are progressively moving from traditional production models to new strategies based on the combined use of different sources of information, which can be both primary and secondary. In this article, we propose a framework for assessing the quality of multisource processes, such as statistical registers. The final aim is to develop a tool supporting decisions about the process design and its monitoring, and to provide quality measures of the whole production. The starting point is the adaptation of the life-cycle paradigm, that results in a three-phases framework described in recent literature. An evolution of this model is proposed, focusing on the first two phases of the life-cycle, to better represent the source integration/combination phase, that can vary accordingly to the features of different types of processes. The proposed enhancement would improve the existing quality framework to support the evaluation of different multisource processes. An application of the proposed framework to two Istat (Italian national statistical institute) registers in the economic area taken as case studies is presented. These experiences show the potentials of such tool in supporting National Statistical Institutes in assessing multisource statistical production processes.
{"title":"Total Process Error: An Approach for Assessing and Monitoring the Quality of Multisource Processes","authors":"Fabiana Rocci, R. Varriale, Orietta Luzi","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0025","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Most National Statistical Institutes are progressively moving from traditional production models to new strategies based on the combined use of different sources of information, which can be both primary and secondary. In this article, we propose a framework for assessing the quality of multisource processes, such as statistical registers. The final aim is to develop a tool supporting decisions about the process design and its monitoring, and to provide quality measures of the whole production. The starting point is the adaptation of the life-cycle paradigm, that results in a three-phases framework described in recent literature. An evolution of this model is proposed, focusing on the first two phases of the life-cycle, to better represent the source integration/combination phase, that can vary accordingly to the features of different types of processes. The proposed enhancement would improve the existing quality framework to support the evaluation of different multisource processes. An application of the proposed framework to two Istat (Italian national statistical institute) registers in the economic area taken as case studies is presented. These experiences show the potentials of such tool in supporting National Statistical Institutes in assessing multisource statistical production processes.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69223216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Elleouet, P. Graham, N. Kondratev, Abby Morgan, R. Green
Abstract Many countries conduct a full census survey to report official population statistics. As no census survey ever achieves 100% response rate, a post-enumeration survey (PES) is usually conducted and analysed to assess census coverage and produce official population estimates by geographic area and demographic attributes. Considering the usually small size of PES, direct estimation at the desired level of disaggregation is not feasible. Design-based estimation with sampling weight adjustment is a commonly used method but is difficult to implement when survey nonresponse patterns cannot be fully documented and population benchmarks are not available. We overcome these limitations with a fully model-based Bayesian approach applied to the New Zealand PES. Although theory for the Bayesian treatment of complex surveys has been described, published applications of individual level Bayesian models for complex survey data remain scarce. We provide such an application through a case study of the 2018 census and PES surveys. We implement a multilevel model that accounts for the complex design of PES. We then illustrate how mixed posterior predictive checking and cross-validation can assist with model building and model selection. Finally, we discuss potential methodological improvements to the model and potential solutions to mitigate dependence between the two surveys.
{"title":"Small Domain Estimation of Census Coverage – A Case Study in Bayesian Analysis of Complex Survey Data","authors":"J. Elleouet, P. Graham, N. Kondratev, Abby Morgan, R. Green","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0034","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0034","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many countries conduct a full census survey to report official population statistics. As no census survey ever achieves 100% response rate, a post-enumeration survey (PES) is usually conducted and analysed to assess census coverage and produce official population estimates by geographic area and demographic attributes. Considering the usually small size of PES, direct estimation at the desired level of disaggregation is not feasible. Design-based estimation with sampling weight adjustment is a commonly used method but is difficult to implement when survey nonresponse patterns cannot be fully documented and population benchmarks are not available. We overcome these limitations with a fully model-based Bayesian approach applied to the New Zealand PES. Although theory for the Bayesian treatment of complex surveys has been described, published applications of individual level Bayesian models for complex survey data remain scarce. We provide such an application through a case study of the 2018 census and PES surveys. We implement a multilevel model that accounts for the complex design of PES. We then illustrate how mixed posterior predictive checking and cross-validation can assist with model building and model selection. Finally, we discuss potential methodological improvements to the model and potential solutions to mitigate dependence between the two surveys.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48106183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract National statistical offices have faced unprecedented circumstances in the modern history of economic measurement. There were dramatically changing consumer expenditure patterns due to pandemic conditions, with lockdowns and fear of infection making many goods and services unavailable. We examine the implications of changing relative expenditures for the construction of Consumer Price Indexes, with special reference to the treatment of prices for unavailable products. We conclude that for many purposes, it would be useful for statistical agencies to establish a continuous consumer expenditure survey. We also examine various other practical pandemic induced CPI measurement problems.
{"title":"Measuring Inflation under Pandemic Conditions","authors":"W. Diewert, Kevin J. Fox","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract National statistical offices have faced unprecedented circumstances in the modern history of economic measurement. There were dramatically changing consumer expenditure patterns due to pandemic conditions, with lockdowns and fear of infection making many goods and services unavailable. We examine the implications of changing relative expenditures for the construction of Consumer Price Indexes, with special reference to the treatment of prices for unavailable products. We conclude that for many purposes, it would be useful for statistical agencies to establish a continuous consumer expenditure survey. We also examine various other practical pandemic induced CPI measurement problems.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46752676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Diewert and Fox (2022) examine various implications of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic for constructing consumer price indexes. The authors state that the pandemic caused major changes in consumption expenditures and shares which makes fixed basket index number formulae inapplicable. They emphasize the need for more frequent surveys of consumer expenditure which will enable compilation of the Fisher index which is considered superior to the traditional Laspeyres or Young indexes. In addition, Diewert and Fox discuss the use of various “new” technologies such as web scraping, scanner data, and information from transactions through credit cards to estimate consumption expenditure.
{"title":"“Measuring Inflation under Pandemic Conditions”: A Comment","authors":"Naohito Abe","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Diewert and Fox (2022) examine various implications of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic for constructing consumer price indexes. The authors state that the pandemic caused major changes in consumption expenditures and shares which makes fixed basket index number formulae inapplicable. They emphasize the need for more frequent surveys of consumer expenditure which will enable compilation of the Fisher index which is considered superior to the traditional Laspeyres or Young indexes. In addition, Diewert and Fox discuss the use of various “new” technologies such as web scraping, scanner data, and information from transactions through credit cards to estimate consumption expenditure.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41536925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
R. Hill, Michael Scholz, C. Shimizu, Miriam Steurer
Abstract Rolling-time-dummy (RTD) is a hedonic method used by a number of countries to compute their official house price indexes (HPIs). The RTD method requires less data and is more adaptable than other hedonic methods, which makes it well suited for computing higher frequency HPIs (e.g., monthly or weekly). In this article, we address three key issues relating to RTD. First, we develop a method for determining the optimal length of the rolling window. Second, we consider variants on the standard way of linking the current period with earlier periods, and show how the optimal linking method can be determined. Third, we propose three ways of modifying the RTD method to make it more robust to periods of low transaction volume. These modifications could prove useful for countries using the RTD method in their official HPIs.
{"title":"Rolling-Time-Dummy House Price Indexes: Window Length, Linking and Options for Dealing with Low Transaction Volume","authors":"R. Hill, Michael Scholz, C. Shimizu, Miriam Steurer","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Rolling-time-dummy (RTD) is a hedonic method used by a number of countries to compute their official house price indexes (HPIs). The RTD method requires less data and is more adaptable than other hedonic methods, which makes it well suited for computing higher frequency HPIs (e.g., monthly or weekly). In this article, we address three key issues relating to RTD. First, we develop a method for determining the optimal length of the rolling window. Second, we consider variants on the standard way of linking the current period with earlier periods, and show how the optimal linking method can be determined. Third, we propose three ways of modifying the RTD method to make it more robust to periods of low transaction volume. These modifications could prove useful for countries using the RTD method in their official HPIs.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42421621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Robert S. Martin, A. Sadler, Sara Stanley, W. Thompson, Jonathan C. Weinhagen
Abstract We re-estimate historical U.S. Producer Price Indexes (PPI) using the geometric Young formula at the elementary level. The geometric Young has better axiomatic properties than the modified Laspeyres, and may better approximate a feasible economic target. We find in most cases, indexes that use the geometric Young escalate between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points less each year than those that use the modified Laspeyres. However, for wholesale and retail trade, as well as some other services, the differences are much larger. As a result, using the geometric Young at the elementary level lowers the U.S. PPI for Final Demand by 0.55 percentage points per year during the study period, a magnitude larger than what has been previously found for the U.S. Consumer Price Index.
{"title":"The Geometric Young Formula for Elementary Aggregate Producer Price Indexes","authors":"Robert S. Martin, A. Sadler, Sara Stanley, W. Thompson, Jonathan C. Weinhagen","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0011","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We re-estimate historical U.S. Producer Price Indexes (PPI) using the geometric Young formula at the elementary level. The geometric Young has better axiomatic properties than the modified Laspeyres, and may better approximate a feasible economic target. We find in most cases, indexes that use the geometric Young escalate between 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points less each year than those that use the modified Laspeyres. However, for wholesale and retail trade, as well as some other services, the differences are much larger. As a result, using the geometric Young at the elementary level lowers the U.S. PPI for Final Demand by 0.55 percentage points per year during the study period, a magnitude larger than what has been previously found for the U.S. Consumer Price Index.","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44139524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Comment on the Article by W. Erwin Diewert and Kevin J. Fox","authors":"Carsten Boldsen","doi":"10.2478/jos-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51092,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Official Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49292946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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