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Possibility theory: A foundation for theoretical and empirical explorations of uncertainty 可能性理论:对不确定性进行理论和实证探索的基础
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1341
Frits K. Pil, Stephen M. Disney, Jan Holmström, Benn Lawson, Christopher Tang
<p>The field of operations and supply chain management (OSCM) has a long history of identifying and engaging with risk and uncertainty in operational practices.<sup>1</sup> We provide a brief review of uncertainty in the OSCM domain, alongside an overview of our special issue (SI) call and accepted manuscripts. This serves as a starting point for the introduction of a new theoretical framework that reframes uncertainty as unresolved states of <i>possibility</i>. In this framework, the term <i>possibility</i> can refer to a broad array of OSCM actions and solutions including the novel application of existing approaches or technology as well as completely novel practices that enhance organizational outcomes. We illustrate the path-dependent evolution in these possibilities, alongside the limitations and opportunities imposed on the set of available possibilities resulting from concurrent evolution in the broader socio-technical system. We present the benefits of deploying a broader array of methodologies in the empirical study of what is, and is not, possible at discrete points in time, as well as the dual process of constraint and expansion in possibilities over time. The resulting empirical efforts to understand possibilities in turn enable novel theory development, elaboration of existing OSCM theory, and opportunities for bridging to other disciplines.</p><p>Much of the OSCM literature views uncertainty through the lens of risk (real and probabilistic, or perceived). Other areas of management examine uncertainty from the perspective of available solutions and possible alternatives, as well as <i>opportunity by design</i> (e.g. in entrepreneurial ventures, strategic decision making, and policy), see Alvarez and Barney (<span>2007</span>), Dimov (<span>2016</span>), and McBride and Wuebker (<span>2022</span>). This latter framing shifts uncertainty away from a troublesome factor to be mitigated and towards a source of potential value creation and progress. We conceptualize economic activity and operations as part of a larger, nearly decomposable, evolving structure (Simon, <span>1962</span>, <span>2002</span>). This offers the opportunity to redirect OSCM uncertainty research towards a deeper reflection on what actions and solutions are <i>possible</i> or <i>impossible</i> in an evolving socio-technical system—a system in which OSCM is deeply embedded (Arthur, <span>2009</span>; Simon, <span>2002</span>). Artificial systems evolve not just through competition and selection but also through purposeful cultivation and design (Simon, <span>1996</span>). Thus, with technology in the socio-economic context of a complex system, OSCM is part of this larger autopoietic<sup>3</sup> system—continuously regenerating itself, from itself (Holland, <span>1995</span>). This centres our attention on the temporal aspect of our work. Specifically, it requires a consideration of how the world is, how it can and cannot be in the future, alongside how it could have b
运营和供应链管理(OSCM)领域在识别和处理运营实践中的风险和不确定性方面有着悠久的历史我们简要回顾了OSCM领域的不确定性,同时概述了我们的特刊(SI)呼吁和接受的手稿。这是引入一个新的理论框架的起点,该框架将不确定性重新定义为未解决的可能性状态。在这个框架中,“可能性”一词可以指一系列广泛的OSCM行动和解决方案,包括对现有方法或技术的新颖应用,以及增强组织成果的全新实践。我们在这些可能性中说明了路径依赖的进化,以及在更广泛的社会技术系统中并发进化对可用可能性集施加的限制和机会。我们展示了在离散时间点上可能和不可能的实证研究中部署更广泛的方法的好处,以及随时间推移可能性的约束和扩展的双重过程。由此产生的理解可能性的经验努力反过来使新的理论发展,现有的OSCM理论的细化,以及与其他学科的桥梁的机会。许多OSCM文献通过风险(真实的和概率的,或感知的)的视角来看待不确定性。其他管理领域从可用的解决方案和可能的替代方案以及设计的机会(例如在创业企业,战略决策和政策中)的角度审视不确定性,参见Alvarez和Barney (2007), Dimov(2016)和McBride和Wuebker(2022)。后一种框架将不确定性从需要减轻的麻烦因素转移到潜在价值创造和进步的来源。我们将经济活动和运营概念化为一个更大的、几乎可分解的、不断发展的结构的一部分(Simon, 1962, 2002)。这提供了一个机会,将OSCM不确定性研究转向更深层次的反思,即在一个不断发展的社会技术系统中,哪些行动和解决方案是可能的,哪些是不可能的——在这个系统中,OSCM被深深嵌入(Arthur, 2009;西蒙,2002)。人工系统的进化不仅通过竞争和选择,而且通过有目的的培育和设计(Simon, 1996)。因此,在复杂系统的社会经济背景下的技术,OSCM是这个更大的自创生系统的一部分——不断地自我再生(Holland, 1995)。这使我们的注意力集中在我们工作的时间方面。具体来说,它需要考虑世界是怎样的,未来会怎样,不可能怎样,以及过去会怎样(欣蒂卡&amp;Hintikka, 1989;冯·赖特,1951)。如前所述,可能性可能涉及广泛的OSCM行动和解决方案。它们包括新的技术、实践和程序,以及对现有做事方式的重新设想的应用。可能性包括技术的部署(例如人工智能、无人机、虚拟现实)、管理政策和实践的变化(例如TQM)、运营流程基础设施(例如数字供应链)、呈现新工作方式的战略(平台、共享经济)以及算法的应用(预测机制、补货政策、供应商管理库存- vmi)。如果这个概念看起来很宽泛,那是因为它确实是。机会不仅在于确定解决方案,还在于随着时间的推移,可能性集如何扩大或受到限制。视角,如约束理论(Goldratt &amp;Cox, 1984)提供逻辑驱动的思维过程和解决问题的工具,也可以支持发现和绘制更广泛的可能的操作场景(例如Groop等人,2017;Öhman et al., 2021)。然而,为一个动态发展的社会技术系统制定方案是具有挑战性的。尽管我们对技术进化的本质有一个大致的了解(Arthur, 2009),但我们缺乏描述和调查它的方法。工业4.0说明了在OSCM环境下方法论上的挑战。尽管有大量的研究努力来理解技术在制造业中展开的机会,但文献缺乏对可能的操作和机会如何随时间变化的详细研究。虽然研究人员没有完全了解该领域,但我们认为其中一个挑战是我们对推论统计和理论检验的偏好。这些工具的回顾焦点意味着它们对于发展我们对新兴实践领域的经验和理论理解并不理想。 表1简要概述了随着研究重点从(a)对开放系统中可知和不可知事件的缓解和响应转向(b)对限制和扩大我们操作实践可能性集的因素的理解,研究前景如何发生变化。这种新视角包括开发框架,以理解企业可以选择的可能性集如何产生(演变),并可能在更有限(和可知)的社会技术系统中积极丰富或增强。将可能和不可行的可能性纳入我们的研究工作,以及社会技术系统施加的进化限制和机会,为开发理解不确定性的新理论镜头提供了重要机会。它也为丰富我们所借鉴的方法论提供了一条宝贵的途径。我们关于如何从可能性的有利位置处理不确定性的建议如图1所示。在可能性和未实现可能性的框架内,不确定性表现为在已实现/未实现可能性和可用/受限可能性之间的未解决状态。从左到右看,该框架类似于技术漏斗,具有比实际实现的可能性更多的可行可能性。不确定性涉及什么是可行的新组合,以及可能性的出现或消除。这是一种具有实践和理论意义的不确定性:企业如何识别和制定理想的可能性,并避免不理想的可能性?从右到左,新技术和实践的出现扩大了可能性。此外,时间本身扩大了组织可用的可能性集。例如,随着一个人的时间范围延伸到未来,管理意外需求的可能性就会增加(例如,通过需要一些时间来建立的库存缓冲或库存)。同样,时间可能导致出现新的和不可预见的可能性,它可能导致出现使可能性得以实现的有利因素。例如,VMI被概念化为一种通过赋予供应商补货责任来为其提供生产和交付灵活性的手段,这种做法在20世纪80年代被公司采用几十年前(迪士尼&amp;Towill, 2003;麦基,1958)。使它真正可行的技术变革需要时间来实现。由于路径依赖,从右到左也会出现限制。例如,VMI被基于预测的补充解决方案所取代。然而,退出VMI意味着供应商失去了供应交付的灵活性和对客户需求的实时可视性,从而限制了他们可用的可能性。实现的可能性和未实现的可能性都可以通过增加和减少可用的可能性和可行的可能性来驱动进化变化。因此,我们的框架将可能性描述为一种进化过程,将不确定性描述为一种未解决的可能性。在任何时间点,总是有比实际实现更多的可行和可用的可能性。不确定性体现在可能性的本质上(例如,未来可行/不可行,当前可用/受限,以及先前实现/未实现)。当我们无法从先验知识中确定可能性序列的下一个状态时,就会出现不确定性。不确定性的原因因可能性的类型而异。例如,它可能是未实现的先前可能性的延迟影响,或者是对可能使未来可能性不可行的广泛因素的不完全了解。调查和解决这些差异需要部署适当的方法和研究设计。我们的理论框架也可以区分可能与不可能。注意,这个数字不包括确定的东西。例如,物理定律肯定地规定过去不能改变,许多可以说的事情是不可能的当然,由于自然的认知限制,管理人员和工人可能会对什么是可能的,什么是不可能的持相反的看法,但这是OSCM研究人员和实践者的一个单独的(尽管是关键的)讨论。进一步考虑我们前面管理意外需求和库存缓冲的可能解决方案的示例。如果上游供应商没有在较早的时间点为制造提供资源,就没有缓冲库存可以在紧急情况下减少,因此将库存作为一种可能的解决方案(Durach et al., 2024)。实现的可能性同样会产生新的可能性。例如,Dube等人。 (2024)展示了为一种环境开发的操作实践和系统如何使组织有可能重新利用这些系统来响应意想不到的环境背景。同样,随着外部技术转变的发生,以前不可行的可能性可能在以后变得可行,从而扩大了可能解决方案的范围。例如,尽管对VMI的兴趣已经减弱,但监测和诊断方面的改进使得供应商管理的基于状态的备件更换解决方案成为可能
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引用次数: 0
When does it pay to be green? The strategic benefits of adoption speed 什么时候需要绿色环保?采用速度的战略效益
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1337
Hung-Chung Su, Wayne Fu, Kevin Linderman

Does the speed of adopting environmental practices impact financial benefits? The strategy literature discusses the contingencies under which firms can gain an early-mover advantage or a late-mover advantage. This research examines the effect of adoption speed on two types of environmental practices: environmental innovation practices (EIP) and environmental management practices (EMP). The results show that early adoption of EIP increases competitive advantage when firms face intense competition. In comparison, we show that early adoption of EMP increases competitive advantage when firms face extremely low competition or have moderate to high levels of slack resources. The study contributes to the literature by revealing the nuances, contingencies, and boundary conditions of when it pays to be green. Prior research shows mixed results when studying firms' decisions to implement environmental practices, which implies that it may not pay to be green. This study shows that firms can get an early mover advantage from environmental practices, but it depends on the type of environmental practices, the firm's internal slack resources, and the firm's external competitive environment.

采用环保措施的速度是否会影响经济效益?战略文献讨论了企业在哪些情况下可以获得先行者优势或后来者优势。本研究探讨了采用速度对两类环境实践的影响:环境创新实践(EIP)和环境管理实践(EMP)。结果表明,当企业面临激烈竞争时,尽早采用环境创新实践会增加竞争优势。相比之下,我们发现,当企业面临极度激烈的竞争或拥有中高水平的闲置资源时,尽早采用 EMP 会增加竞争优势。本研究揭示了绿色经济的细微差别、偶然性和边界条件,为相关文献做出了贡献。以往的研究表明,企业实施环保措施的决策结果好坏参半,这意味着企业可能不会为环保买单。本研究表明,企业可以从环保实践中获得先发优势,但这取决于环保实践的类型、企业的内部闲置资源以及企业的外部竞争环境。
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引用次数: 0
Registered reports review for field experiments 实地实验注册报告审查
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1336
Huseyn Abdulla, Rafael Escamilla, Rogelio Oliva
<p>In this editorial, we build upon the increased attention of the operations management (OM) community toward field experiments and the recent publication of the Pre-Approved Research Designs Special Issue that provided an initial test of Registered Reports as a novel review process for field experiments in OM. Addressing lingering concerns voiced by the editorial team and learning from the experiences of journals from other disciplines that implemented Registered Reports, we introduce a new initiative and outline a new review process in the <i>Journal of Operations Management</i> (<span></span><math> <mrow> <mi>JOM</mi> </mrow></math>) to motivate theory-focused field experiments in OM.</p><p>Empirical research in OM strives to uphold two key virtues: providing managerially relevant insights and making meaningful theoretical contributions. Field experiments<sup>1</sup>—testing treatments in controlled digital and physical field settings—tend to possess the managerial relevance virtue because of their strong engagement with key stakeholders and the practical problems that they face. By contrast, the theoretical contributions of a field experiment depend on the extent to which its insights enrich our causal understanding of real-world phenomena. Critically, the degree to which scientific research based on field experiments in OM can be distinguished from consulting engagements and industrial experiments depends on the extent of its contributions to theory. Indeed, there are many different ways of contributing and forms of contribution to OM theory; however, they all serve a common purpose: to build a <i>causal</i> understanding of relevant OM phenomena. Field experiments can most decisively establish this causal understanding in the complexity of real-world operations (Ibanez & Staats, <span>2019</span>). Thus, OM research that tests <i>theoretically</i> motivated treatments in field settings and provides sufficiently deep causal explanations for the observed effects, while also opening a door for future inquiry, possesses both virtues of empirical research. Consequently, we believe that the field of OM can benefit significantly from such research.</p><p>Despite the fact that empirical research employing field experiments as the main methodological approach is on the rise in OM, it has traditionally lagged other disciplines such as economics, marketing, and information systems (Gao et al., <span>2023</span>). For example, Simester (<span>2017</span>) reports that 37 field experiments were published in the top five marketing journals between 2010 and 2014, a period in which OM published a total of five field experiments in its top five journals (Gao et al., <span>2023</span>). Between 2005 and 2021, only 31 research articles with field experiments were published in three top-tier OM journals: <i>JOM</i>, <i>Manufacturing & Service Operations Management</i> (<i>MSOM</i>), and <i>Production and
在这篇社论中,我们以运营管理(OM)界对现场实验的日益关注以及最近出版的 "预批准研究设计特刊"(Pre-Approved Research Designs Special Issue)为基础,该特刊对注册报告(Registered Reports)作为运营管理领域现场实验的新型审稿流程进行了初步测试。为了解决编辑团队提出的遗留问题,并借鉴其他学科期刊实施注册报告的经验,我们在《运营管理杂志》(JOM)上推出了一项新举措,并概述了新的审稿流程,以激励运营管理领域以理论为重点的现场实验。运营管理领域的实证研究努力坚持两个关键优点:提供与管理相关的见解,并做出有意义的理论贡献。现场实验1 - 在受控的数字和物理现场环境中测试处理方法 - 往往具有与管理相关的优点,因为它们与主要利益相关者及其面临的实际问题密切相关。相比之下,实地实验的理论贡献取决于其见解在多大程度上丰富了我们对现实世界现象的因果理解。至关重要的是,基于 OM 实地实验的科学研究能在多大程度上区别于咨询参与和工业实验,取决于其对理论的贡献程度。事实上,有许多不同的方法和形式可以为 OM 理论做出贡献;但是,它们都有一个共同的目的:建立对相关 OM 现象的因果理解。实地实验可以在现实世界的复杂运作中最果断地建立这种因果理解(Ibanez &amp; Staats, 2019)。因此,在实地环境中测试理论上的处理方法,并为观察到的效果提供足够深入的因果解释,同时也为未来的探索打开一扇门的 OM 研究,同时具备实证研究的两种优点。尽管采用现场实验作为主要方法论的实证研究在人力资源管理领域呈上升趋势,但它在传统上一直落后于经济学、市场营销和信息系统等其他学科(Gao 等,2023 年)。例如,Simester(2017)报告称,2010 年至 2014 年间,前五大市场营销期刊共发表了 37 篇现场实验论文,而在此期间,OM 在其前五大期刊中共发表了 5 篇现场实验论文(Gao 等人,2023 年)。2005 年至 2021 年间,OM 三大顶级期刊仅发表了 31 篇带有现场实验的研究文章:JOM, Manufacturing &amp; Service Operations Management (MSOM) 和 Production and Operations Management (POM)。这些文章探讨了与运营有关的有趣研究问题,测试了管理处理对运营结果的因果影响,并就如何改进运营流程提出了见解。然而,这些论文中很少有论文是出于理论考虑而发表的,运营管理文献中此类现场实验相对较少,这表明人们错失了利用现场实验做出理论贡献的机会。事实上,在进行现场实验时,OM 现场实验中的处理方法有可能主要以解决问题为导向,缺乏理论建设、阐述或检验重点(Fisher &amp; Aguinis, 2017)。从我们自身的经验来看,当研究伙伴已经有了实施特定疗法以改善组织成果的意图,而研究人员又以严格的方式为测试该疗法做出了贡献时,实地实验合作就更有可能得到实施。这并不是说,测试以解决问题为重点而设计的干预措施就不能带来重要的理论贡献。这种情况在以干预为基础的研究中很常见,研究者在其中扮演了支持变革努力的积极角色(Chandrasekaran 等人,2023 年;Oliva,2019 年)。然而,我们认为,如果在基于实地实验的研究中将解决问题作为优先重点,那么在事前很少考虑重点处理方法的理论背景和意义、其因果影响以及潜在边界条件的情况下,理论贡献可能会不足。此外,现场实验作为一种研究设计,牺牲了背景的普遍性,以便在研究感兴趣的现象时获得更大的现实性(McGrath,1981 年)。
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引用次数: 0
Helping hampered bidders—Do subsidy auctions work as intended? 帮助受阻的投标人--补贴拍卖是否如愿以偿?
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-10-12 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1333
Sanghoon Cho, Joel O. Wooten, Timothy D. Fry

The use of preference or discriminatory auctions, where one class of bidders is offered favored treatment over another class, has received mixed attention in the literature. Research has shown there is often an economic benefit of such policies in procurement auctions thanks to lower costs for buyers as incentives are offered to disadvantaged sellers. In this paper, we study one type of preferential procurement auction: the subsidy. Using a set of controlled experiments, we compare actual bidder behavior to what is predicted in equilibrium and find consistent (but overly aggressive) patterns overall. By testing a common bid strategy assumption, we also identify a behavioral framing bias that may trap sellers in these suboptimal strategies. Finally, we compare subsidies to another common discriminatory mechanism—the price preference—and find evidence that buyers interested in increasing the welfare of disadvantaged sellers should use subsidies instead of price preference auctions, thanks to a surprising difference in outcomes between preference types. Due to the wide use of bid preference auctions to support both policy and social aims, our findings have both financial and societal implications.

使用优惠或歧视性拍卖,即给予一类投标人优于另一类投标人的待遇,在文献中受到的关注不一。研究表明,在采购拍卖中,这种政策往往能带来经济效益,因为向弱势卖家提供了激励措施,从而降低了买方的成本。在本文中,我们研究了一种优惠采购拍卖:补贴。通过一组受控实验,我们将实际投标人的行为与均衡状态下的预测进行了比较,发现两者的行为模式总体上是一致的(但过于激进)。通过检验一种常见的投标策略假设,我们还发现了一种行为框架偏差,这种偏差可能会使卖方陷入这些次优策略中。最后,我们将补贴与另一种常见的歧视机制--价格偏好进行了比较,发现有证据表明,有意增加弱势卖家福利的买方应该使用补贴而不是价格偏好拍卖,这要归功于偏好类型之间令人惊讶的结果差异。由于竞价偏好拍卖被广泛用于支持政策和社会目标,我们的发现对金融和社会都有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Mitigating upstream disruptions: Effects of extended inventories in first- and second-tier suppliers 缓解上游中断:一、二线供应商库存增加的影响
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-09-22 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1332
Christian F. Durach, Yuri Peers, Yimin Wang, Tomas Repasky

This study examines how inventory slack at first- and second-tier suppliers influences buyer performance following an upstream disruption event. We analyze secondary data from buyer, first-tier, and second-tier triads impacted at their upper end by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. By matching buyers in affected triads with similar, largely unaffected firms, we assess post-event performance in relation to triad inventory slack. Results show: (a) inventory slack at the first and second tiers supports buyer performance after the disruption; (b) first-tier inventory slack has a greater impact; (c) buyers with less inventory slack can extract more value from their chains' inventories compared to those with more slack; and (d) first-tier suppliers occupy a pivotal role in bridging the second-tier inventories to the buyer. When competition for the first-tier intensifies, the benefits of having first- and second-tier inventory slack diminish for the buyer. A central contribution of this study is to highlight the importance of resources controlled by chain members with indirect links to the buyer and the bridging role of first-tier suppliers. These insights suggest that for effective risk management, both direct and indirect supply chain resources and their interactions need consideration. Practically, these findings should guide supplier selection, risk management, and investments in supply chain visibility.

本研究考察了上游中断事件后,一级和二级供应商的库存闲置如何影响买方绩效。我们分析了受2011年东日本大地震影响的买家、一线和二线三位一体的二手数据。通过将受影响的三方买家与类似的、基本上未受影响的公司进行匹配,我们评估了与三方库存闲置相关的事后表现。结果表明:(a)一、二级库存闲置对中断后的买方绩效有支持作用;(二)一线库存闲置影响较大;(c)与库存松弛度较高的买家相比,库存松弛度较低的买家可以从其供应链的库存中提取更多的价值;(d)一级供应商在将二级库存传递给买方方面发挥着关键作用。当对一线的竞争加剧时,对买家来说,拥有一线和二线库存闲置的好处就会减少。本研究的一个核心贡献是强调了与买方有间接联系的链成员控制的资源的重要性以及一线供应商的桥梁作用。这些见解表明,为了有效的风险管理,需要考虑直接和间接供应链资源及其相互作用。实际上,这些发现应该指导供应商的选择、风险管理和供应链可见性的投资。
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引用次数: 0
Riding the waves of uncertainty: Towards strategic agility in medicine supply systems 驾驭不确定性的浪潮:实现药品供应系统的战略敏捷性
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1330
Nonhlanhla Dube, Kostas Selviaridis, Kim E. van Oorschot, Marianne Jahre

We investigate how organizations embedded in a supply system collectively respond to risks and seize opportunities arising from crisis events under shifting forms of uncertainty. Using the United Kingdom (UK) medicine supply system as the research context, we explore how decision-makers navigated the effects of an event with knowable implications (UK's European Union exit, 2016–2020) followed by an event with unknowable implications (COVID-19 global pandemic, 2020–2021). We adopt a longitudinal case research design that incorporates causal loop diagramming, to understand the system's responses. We find that learning evolves as crisis events unfold, changing from surface (know-what) to deep (know-why and -how) and at the highest level, it is transcendent. Transcendent learning entails understanding system effects into the future (i.e., beyond the past and present) and in relation to other supply systems (i.e., beyond the UK system). Capabilities to absorb, avoid, and accelerate away from shocks are developed sequentially as learning changes. We contribute to prior research by developing a theory of system-level strategic agility and the adaptation processes that underpin it. The latter hinge on dynamic resource (re)allocation and the continuous (re)configuration of processes, protocols, regulations, and structures.

我们研究了在不确定性变化的形式下,嵌入供应系统的组织如何集体应对风险并抓住危机事件产生的机会。以英国药品供应系统为研究背景,我们探讨了决策者如何应对具有可知影响的事件(英国退出欧盟,2016-2020年)和具有不可知影响的事件(COVID-19全球大流行,2020-2021年)的影响。我们采用纵向案例研究设计,结合因果循环图,以了解系统的反应。我们发现,学习随着危机事件的展开而发展,从表面(知道什么)转变为深层(知道为什么和如何),在最高层次上,它是超越的。超越性学习需要理解系统对未来的影响(即,超越过去和现在)以及与其他供应系统的关系(即,超越英国系统)。吸收、避免和加速远离冲击的能力是随着学习的变化而依次发展起来的。我们通过开发系统级战略敏捷性理论和支撑它的适应过程,为先前的研究做出了贡献。后者取决于动态资源(重新)分配和过程、协议、法规和结构的连续(重新)配置。
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引用次数: 0
Steering through the storm: Environmental uncertainty and delivery performance 在风暴中掌舵:环境不确定性与交付绩效
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1331
Joshua Ignatius, Rui Li, Yunqiang Yin, Kunze Jia

We investigate the impact of Typhoon Lekima, a source of environmental uncertainty, on delivery performance, utilizing data from RiRiShun Logistics. We apply a staggered difference-in-differences model across low-complexity and high-complexity supply chains. The analysis uncovers distinct dynamics throughout the typhoon's forecast, active, and recovery phases. Notably, the active phase experiences less disruption in delivery performance compared to the forecast phase, owing to RiRiShun's wait-and-see policy. This approach leads to order accumulation but subsequently enables more effective resource allocation. In the recovery phase, high-complexity supply chains demonstrate significant improvements, surpassing pre-disaster performance levels. The study further emphasizes the critical role of two response mechanisms in managing high-complexity supply chains. Increasing throughput efficiencies at destination centers and implementing transfer centers prove effective in enhancing delivery performance during both the forecast and active phases. However, the simultaneous application of these response mechanisms during the forecast phase unexpectedly reduces performance.

我们利用日日顺物流公司(RiRiShun Logistics)的数据,研究了台风 "勒基玛"(环境不确定性的来源)对交付绩效的影响。我们在低复杂度和高复杂度供应链中应用了交错差分模型。分析揭示了台风预报、活跃和恢复阶段的不同动态。值得注意的是,与预报阶段相比,由于日日顺采取了观望政策,活跃阶段的交付绩效受到的干扰较小。这种方法会导致订单累积,但随后能更有效地分配资源。在恢复阶段,高复杂性供应链表现出显著的改善,超过了灾前的性能水平。研究进一步强调了两种应对机制在管理高复杂性供应链中的关键作用。事实证明,提高目的地中心的吞吐效率和实施转运中心可以有效提高预测阶段和主动阶段的交付绩效。然而,在预测阶段同时应用这些应对机制,却会出乎意料地降低绩效。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty in healthcare operations: How hospitals weather the perfect storm 医疗运营中的不确定性:医院如何抵御完美风暴
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1327
Sriram Thirumalai, Sarv Devaraj, Tyson R. Browning

We focus on two of the many sources of uncertainty in healthcare operations, mix uncertainty – the variation in the complexity of care required by the patient mix, and volume uncertainty – the variation in the volume of care demanded by the patient population. Using an interdisciplinary perspective, we study the impact of mix and volume uncertainties on two important healthcare outcomes, length of stay and number of procedures, along with the mitigation impacts of the operational concepts of related focus and utilization levels. Based on large dataset of 830,853 patient discharges in 26 clinical departments across 731 hospitals in five U.S. Midwest states, our results indicate that mix and volume uncertainties each have a significant impact on patient care. We also find that related focus and department utilization levels have a mitigating effect on uncertainty in healthcare settings. Lastly, we find considerable heterogeneity in the effects of uncertainty across hospital types and departments. We discuss key research and managerial implications of our findings.

我们重点关注医疗运营中众多不确定性来源中的两个,即混合不确定性--患者组合所需的医疗服务复杂性的变化,以及数量不确定性--患者群体所需的医疗服务数量的变化。我们采用跨学科的视角,研究了混合不确定性和数量不确定性对住院时间和手术次数这两个重要医疗结果的影响,以及相关重点和利用水平等运营概念的缓解影响。基于美国中西部 5 个州 731 家医院 26 个临床科室 830,853 名出院患者的大型数据集,我们的研究结果表明,组合和数量的不确定性对患者护理均有显著影响。我们还发现,相关重点和科室利用水平对医疗环境中的不确定性有缓解作用。最后,我们还发现不确定性对不同类型医院和科室的影响存在很大差异。我们将讨论研究结果的主要研究意义和管理意义。
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引用次数: 0
Collaborative dynamics in open source software development: Unveiling the influence of team interaction and the role of project manager 开源软件开发中的协作动力:揭示团队互动的影响和项目经理的作用
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1324
Sukrit Pal, Anand Nair, Zhiya Zuo

As the world becomes increasingly reliant on open-source software (OSS) development platforms, collaborative communication networks are becoming more complex, resulting in non-trivial effects on project performance. This study examines the impact of communication network characteristics on project performance, measured in terms of the number of issues closed within OSS projects. Additionally, this research examines how this project outcome is affected by project managers' active participation in these communication networks. Using a panel dataset of 1599 projects spanning 104 weeks, with a total of 120,243 observations, we find that the density of communication network has an inverted U-shaped relationship with project performance, that is, as the density of the communication network formed by team member interactions increases, project performance initially increases but then starts to decrease. Meanwhile, a project manager's participation in the communication network has no direct positive impact on project performance, but it flattens the inverted U-shaped relationship, that is, it reduces the rate of decrease in project performance after the density of the communication network formed by project team members crosses the inflection point. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of communication networks in OSS projects and can help develop strategies for improving project performance.

随着全球越来越依赖开源软件(OSS)开发平台,协作通信网络也变得越来越复杂,从而对项目绩效产生了非同小可的影响。本研究以开放源码软件项目中关闭问题的数量为衡量标准,探讨了通信网络特征对项目绩效的影响。此外,本研究还探讨了项目经理积极参与这些交流网络对项目成果的影响。我们使用了一个包含 1599 个项目、跨度为 104 周、共 120,243 个观察值的面板数据集,发现沟通网络的密度与项目绩效呈倒 U 型关系,即随着团队成员互动形成的沟通网络密度的增加,项目绩效最初会增加,但随后开始下降。同时,项目经理参与沟通网络对项目绩效没有直接的积极影响,但会使倒 U 型关系趋于平缓,即在项目团队成员形成的沟通网络密度越过拐点后,会降低项目绩效的下降率。这些结果为了解开放源码软件项目中沟通网络的动态提供了有价值的见解,有助于制定提高项目绩效的策略。
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引用次数: 0
Product personalization and brand retailer performance: The critical role of brand retailer-upstream supplier control 产品个性化与品牌零售商业绩:品牌零售商对上游供应商控制的关键作用
IF 6.5 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1002/joom.1328
Peijian Song, Li Zuo, Xiaosong (David) Peng, Eric (Er) Fang

Brand retailers are increasingly offering product personalization to accommodate the requests of individual customers. While prior research has examined product personalization from a customer's or a manufacturer's perspective, this study focuses on product personalization from a brand retailer's perspective. Under product personalization, brand retailers that outsource production to upstream suppliers face two significant challenges: product returns from downstream customers, and personalization costs charged by upstream suppliers. Employing an analysis of transaction data from an online women's wedding dress firm, this study finds that as product requests increase (i.e., more product features must be modified), personalization costs increase, but the likelihood of product returns decreases. Additionally, as time requests increase (i.e., delivery is more urgent), the likelihood of product returns increases. Furthermore, relationship-specific process control exacerbates (i) the effect of product requests on personalization costs, and (ii) the effect of time requests on the likelihood of product returns. Finally, relationship-specific outcome control and transaction-specific control alleviate the impact of time requests on the likelihood of product returns while exacerbating the effect of product requests on personalization costs. The findings suggest that retailers can realize greater benefits from product personalization by selecting control mechanisms tailored to personalization requests.

品牌零售商越来越多地提供产品个性化服务,以满足个别顾客的要求。以往的研究都是从客户或制造商的角度研究产品个性化,而本研究则侧重于从品牌零售商的角度研究产品个性化。在产品个性化方面,将生产外包给上游供应商的品牌零售商面临两大挑战:下游客户的产品退货和上游供应商收取的个性化成本。本研究通过对一家在线女装婚纱公司的交易数据进行分析,发现随着产品要求的增加(即必须修改更多的产品功能),个性化成本会增加,但产品退货的可能性会降低。此外,随着时间要求的增加(即交货更加紧迫),产品退货的可能性也会增加。此外,特定关系的过程控制加剧了(i)产品要求对个性化成本的影响,以及(ii)时间要求对产品退货可能性的影响。最后,特定关系结果控制和特定交易控制减轻了时间要求对产品退货可能性的影响,同时加剧了产品要求对个性化成本的影响。研究结果表明,零售商可以通过选择针对个性化要求的控制机制,从产品个性化中获得更大的收益。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Operations Management
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