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Energy efficiency improvements under conditions of low energy prices: the evidence from Russian regions 低能源价格条件下能源效率的提高:来自俄罗斯地区的证据
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1966134
S. Ratner, A. Berezin, B. Sergi
ABSTRACT This study evaluates the productivity of energy efficiency (EE) measures taken at the regional level employing a set of non-parametric statistical methods. The first aspect is investigating the impact of various energy efficiency measures. A high proportion of the population lives in apartment buildings, with limited opportunities to manage their own energy efficiency. The second research aspect of this paper is the study of the effectiveness of various energy efficiency measures in the context of low energy prices. Our analysis indicates that only two tools exert a long-term positive effect on reducing the economy’s energy intensity for all regions. This is the use of combined heat sources in large cities and implementing ISO 50001 in large companies. These two energy efficiency measures work even under low energy prices, which do not sufficiently stimulate the introduction of innovative energy-saving technologies.
摘要:本研究采用一组非参数统计方法,评估了在区域层面采取的能效(EE)措施的生产率。第一个方面是调查各种能源效率措施的影响。很大一部分人住在公寓楼里,管理自己能源效率的机会有限。本文的第二个研究方面是研究低能源价格背景下各种能效措施的有效性。我们的分析表明,只有两种工具对降低所有地区经济的能源强度具有长期的积极影响。这是在大城市使用联合热源和在大公司实施ISO 50001。这两项提高能源效率的措施即使在能源价格较低的情况下也能发挥作用,而能源价格低并不能充分刺激创新节能技术的引进。
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引用次数: 5
An analysis on Turkey’s natural gas hub development through a game-theoretic model application 基于博弈论模型的土耳其天然气枢纽发展分析
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2052209
Yunus Emre İci̇k, M. Atak
ABSTRACT Turkey’s natural gas hub development has been under the spotlight recently as its long-term gas supply contracts expire between 2021 and 2026. This study is an effort to investigate end-user prices and shippers’ behaviors in the natural gas hub development process through four noncooperative game models representing different maturity levels of the Turkish gas market. These models, comprising mixed complementarity problems, are solved by GAMS software using the Turkish gas market’s data. Our findings suggest that although increasing hub maturity yields decreasing end-user prices owing to the availability of more supply options and enhanced competition, a shift from long-term contracts to spot trading may result in an increase in the end-user prices due to strategic withholding by importers. Our models are pioneering as they are the first to depict the Turkish gas market with regard to shippers’ behaviors.
土耳其的天然气枢纽发展最近一直受到关注,因为其长期天然气供应合同将于2021年至2026年到期。本研究旨在通过代表土耳其天然气市场不同成熟度的四种非合作博弈模型,探讨天然气枢纽发展过程中的终端用户价格和托运人行为。这些模型包含混合互补问题,使用GAMS软件利用土耳其天然气市场的数据进行求解。我们的研究结果表明,尽管由于更多供应选择的可用性和竞争的增强,枢纽成熟度的提高会降低终端用户的价格,但由于进口商的战略性保留,从长期合同转向现货交易可能会导致终端用户价格的上涨。我们的模型是开创性的,因为它们是第一个描述土耳其天然气市场中托运人行为的模型。
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引用次数: 1
Household Socioeconomic Determinants of Clean Cooking Program in Ecuador 厄瓜多尔清洁烹饪计划的家庭社会经济决定因素
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2160525
Daniel Davi-Arderius, Moisés Obaco, R. Alvarado
ABSTRACT Ecuador is a developing South American country that has highly subsidized liquid petroleum gas (LPG) since 1974. Between 2015 and 2020, LPG subsidies amounted to 260 M USD annually. In 2014, the Ecuadorean government implemented a clean cooking program, to encourage the replacement of LPG with electricity, mainly through induction stoves. However, the engagement rate in this program was lower than initially expected. This work investigates the socioeconomic and sociodemographic determinants of using various cooking technologies in Ecuador, including induction stoves. We use official Ecuadorian household surveys from 2015 to 2017 to gather information on gender, age, marital status, educational level, ethnicity, income family, family size, urban area, and province of residence. We then perform two econometric analyses, one using a probit model to study the determinants of having an induction stove, and the other employing a multilogit model to investigate the sociodemographic characteristics associated with the use of different cooking technologies, namely LPG, firewood, and electricity. Our results indicate that non-married individuals, Indigenous people, the poor, and those living in rooms or apartments with poor housing conditions show the lowest likelihood of having an induction stove. Moreover, the most disadvantaged groups still prefer firewood instead of the highly subsidized LPG barrels. We also find important differences across provinces. Our results give rise to several policy recommendations. Clean cooking programs should have a more regional approach and consider specific subsidies for the most disadvantaged groups. Moreover, the successful implementation of clean cooking programs may require the implementation of specific social programs targeting households that still use firewood. Otherwise, these clean cooking programs may become regressive and only benefit the wealthier households.
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引用次数: 2
Potential sites for the use of ocean energy in the Mexican Caribbean 墨西哥加勒比地区潜在的海洋能源利用地点
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-27 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2160524
Valeria Chávez, Juan Francisco Bárcenas, M. L. Martínez, E. Mateos, Adán Zúñiga-Ríos, Mayrene Guimarais, Astrid Wojtarowski, Rosario Landgrave, Carlos Humberto Ceballos Canché, Rodolfo Silva
ABSTRACT Increasing demand for electricity and the need for sustainable energy sources, make ocean energy a viable alternative for its generation in coastal regions. In this study, wave, marine currents and thermal gradient resources were evaluated to identify potential sites for energy harvesting in the Mexican Caribbean. From a techno-economic review of the literature, a marine current turbine from Nova Innovation 100 kW, an OWC (350 kW), and an OTEC (1 MW) plant were considered, examining theoretical energy potentials and the LCOE of each. A potential environmental impact assessment was also carried out, including a study of the regulatory framework and the socio-economic conditions in the region. The results show that energy harvesting from the sources analyzed is viable, especially in the north of the area, where most of the sites that fit the proposed criteria were found, e.g. Cancun for wave energy (power availability of 45.6 MWh/m/yr) and current energy (power availability of 4.4 MWh/m2yr), and the east coast of Cozumel for OTEC deployment (power availability of 1.69 GWh/km2/yr). Of the three harvesting technologies studied, the best LCOE obtained was for OTEC (862.2 US$/MWh) with a capacity factor of 0.965%. This was expected, given that the technologies analyzed for current and wave energy are not efficient for the resource conditions in the Mexican Caribbean.
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引用次数: 1
Sectoral electricity consumption modeling with D-vine quantile regression: The US electricity market case 用D-vine分位数回归的部门电力消费模型:美国电力市场案例
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2160523
O. Evkaya, Bilgi Yilmaz, Ebru Yüksel Haliloğlu
ABSTRACT Efficient electricity demand planning is crucial for energy market actors. However, it is difficult as a consequence of climate change. We aim at investigating how climate variables (heating and cooling degree days) may affect electricity demand. By examining electricity consumption in various US sectors, we explore this relationship using parametric and non-parametric D-vine quantile regression models that exploits the dependence between covariates and allows sequential covariate selection. The results are compared against the classical linear quantile regression. We find a positive effect of the climatic variables on electricity consumption that is as heating and cooling degree days increase electricity demand rises in all sectors, and cooling need has a greater impact than heating need. Evidence suggests that residential and commercial electricity consumptions are affected the most, while industrial and transport sector consumptions are less sensitive. The D-vine quantile regression performs better than the linear quantile regression for almost all sectors.
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引用次数: 0
The Detection of Unaccounted for Gas in Residential Natural Gas Customers Using Particle Swarm Optimization-based Neural Networks 基于粒子群优化神经网络的居民天然气用户漏气检测
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-15 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2154412
A. Soltanisarvestani, A. Safavi, M. Rahimi
ABSTRACT One of the most important issues related to natural gas is unaccounted for gas. Residential customers constitute a significant percentage of unaccounted for gas. To estimate the amount of unaccounted for gas, it is necessary to compare the amount of consumption estimated by the model with the one recorded by the meter. Thus, the value estimated by the consumption model are of great importance. Initially, a consumption model is developed for each customer using consumption data for the first 12 months and the average monthly ambient outdoor temperature related to the same time period. The models are developed using artificial neural networks and particle swarm optimization algorithm. The estimates made by the models are then compared with the values recorded by the meters. This method is then implemented on some real data (as the study area). The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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引用次数: 0
Russian gas in Europe: pipeline and hubs price convergence analysis 俄罗斯天然气在欧洲:管道和枢纽价格趋同分析
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2147603
A. Talipova
ABSTRACT The analysis in this paper was performed before the disastrous and unsolicited invasion of Russia to Ukraine. The paper aims to identify if the biggest Russian gas exporter Gazprom used market power to decouple its gas prices from European gas hub benchmarks. The empirical analysis is based on pairwise price convergence between the Russian pipeline and European gas hubs. The main finding shows that Gazprom takes advantage of its market position. The proposed model does not support the company’s claims of pipeline price tightness to liquid European gas hubs, and rather proves fluctuating and unstable price convergence between pipelines and hubs from 2016 to March 2020, right before the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, a robust and trendy-stable price convergence is observed between the Russian pipeline gas and Brent benchmark. Methodologically, the paper contributes with a modified convergence model compliant with gas market fundamentals and suggests a time-expanding concept missed in previous studies. Ongoing political and European gas market developments of 2022 (during the paper review) support the conclusions.
本文的分析是在俄罗斯主动入侵乌克兰之前进行的。本文旨在确定俄罗斯最大的天然气出口商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)是否利用市场力量将其天然气价格与欧洲天然气中心基准价格脱钩。实证分析基于俄罗斯管道和欧洲天然气枢纽之间的成对价格趋同。主要发现表明,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司利用了自己的市场地位。该模型并不支持该公司声称的欧洲液态天然气枢纽的管道价格紧缩,而是证明了2016年至2020年3月(COVID-19大流行之前)管道和枢纽之间波动和不稳定的价格趋同。值得注意的是,在俄罗斯管道天然气和布伦特基准天然气之间观察到强劲且趋势稳定的价格趋同。在方法上,本文提出了一个符合天然气市场基本面的修正收敛模型,并提出了以前研究中遗漏的时间扩展概念。2022年(在论文审查期间)持续的政治和欧洲天然气市场发展支持了这一结论。
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引用次数: 0
A composite energy resilience performance indicator for Bangladesh 孟加拉国的综合能源弹性性能指标
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2149901
F. Sharmin, S. Dhakal
ABSTRACT A “Composite Energy Resilience Index (CERI)” was developed with 15 individual indicators. A two-round Delphi technique was used to interview stakeholders to extract key energy resilience issues of Bangladesh based on a conceptual framework from the literature review. A total of 15 indicators were selected from the findings of the Delphi technique and using these indicators, the energy resilience framework for the country was developed. Constructed CERI implies that energy resilience of Bangladesh is critically dependent on a set of affordability, sustainability, and availability issues as well as the qualitative aspects of the energy system management, such as institutional effectiveness, governance, and regulatory quality. It implies important policy implications in terms of developing holistic energy strategies for supporting the economic development aspiration of the country. The findings also suggest that the energy resilience performance under the planned scenario based on the long-term government plans and the business-as-usual scenario is likely to improve the resilience performance by 2030. However, the required improvement might be ambitious considering the low base level and the prevailing geopolitical situation. As such, a systematic approach to energy system resilience is warranted.
摘要建立了包含15个单项指标的“复合能量弹性指数”(CERI)。采用两轮德尔菲技术采访利益相关者,根据文献综述中的概念框架提取孟加拉国的关键能源弹性问题。从德尔菲技术的结果中共选择了15个指标,并使用这些指标,制定了该国的能源弹性框架。构建的CERI表明,孟加拉国的能源弹性严重依赖于一系列可负担性、可持续性和可用性问题,以及能源系统管理的定性方面,如制度有效性、治理和监管质量。它在制定整体能源战略以支持该国经济发展愿望方面具有重要的政策意义。研究结果还表明,到2030年,基于长期政府计划的规划情景和一切照旧情景下的能源弹性绩效可能会提高弹性绩效。然而,考虑到较低的基数和目前的地缘政治局势,所需的改进可能是雄心勃勃的。因此,对能源系统弹性采取系统的方法是必要的。
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引用次数: 1
A comprehensive policy framework for the development of green markets in European Islands 在欧洲岛屿发展绿色市场的综合政策框架
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2148019
A. Kylili, P. Fokaides, Aravella Zachariou, B. Ioannou, Phoebe-Zoe Georgalli, Savvas Vlachos, Myrto Skouroupathi, N. Matak, Ljubomir Majdandzic, Elizabeth Olival, Hugo Vasconcelos, Vittoria Cherchi, D. Groppi, D. Astiaso Garcia, Alkisti Florou, Kostas Komninos, Stelios Procopiou, Thodoris Kouros, Arne Håkon Sandnes, Malene Aaram Vike, May Britt Roald, Lina Vassdal, Salvador Suárez García, Ü. Kask, J. Andrijevskaja, Kerli Kirsimaa
ABSTRACT Under the context of the European Union’s energy and environmental strategy toward its decarbonization by 2050, the green markets of the Member States are growing exponentially. The in-place policies and legislation dynamics change substantially in islands and isolated regions due to geographical constraints, limited availability of local resources, economies of scale constraints, and seasonal employment variabilities. This work focuses on assessing policy and legislative elements related to green growth in eight European islands and isolated regions for developing a comprehensive policy scheme. This is achieved by adopting a five-step methodological approach, analyzing the long-term strategies of those regions, and investigating different parameters and dimensions of four sustainability sectors. The outputs of this analysis indicated that although the regions under study are making significant efforts and taking the necessary measures for greening these sectors, they are still behind in fulfilling their EU energy and environmental obligations.
在欧盟2050年实现脱碳的能源和环境战略背景下,成员国的绿色市场呈指数增长。由于地理限制、当地资源有限、规模经济限制和季节性就业变化,岛屿和偏远地区的现行政策和立法动态发生了重大变化。这项工作的重点是评估八个欧洲岛屿和孤立地区与绿色增长有关的政策和立法因素,以便制定一项全面的政策计划。这是通过采用五步方法,分析这些地区的长期战略,并调查四个可持续发展部门的不同参数和维度来实现的。这项分析的结果表明,尽管所研究的地区在这些部门的绿化方面做出了重大努力,并采取了必要的措施,但它们在履行欧盟能源和环境义务方面仍然落后。
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引用次数: 0
Super-SBM DEA and DTW-based analysis of the energy-environmental efficiency in emerging economies 基于Super-SBM DEA和dtw的新兴经济体能源环境效率分析
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2022.2147604
Ghassen El Montasser, O. Ben-Salha
ABSTRACT Achieving high economic growth rates has always been the primary objective of emerging economies. While some countries have experienced phenomenal economic success in recent years, there is widespread consensus that economic prosperity has been accompanied by rapid environmental degradation. This research aims to empirically investigate whether the development process in emerging economies were environmentally efficient. The study computes and analyses the energy-environmental super-efficiency scores for 14 leading emerging economies from 1980 to 2019 using the Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis with undesirable output. The study also conducts a similarity analysis using the Dynamic Time Warping non-parametric approach, while the Dynamic Time Warping Barycenter Averaging-k-means algorithm is performed to assign economies to different clusters according to their energy-environmental super-efficiency. The findings divulge some divergence regarding the magnitude and evolution over time of super-efficiency scores. Four emerging economies, Brazil, The Philippines, Pakistan, and Vietnam, have been the most efficient, while South Africa recorded the worst scores during the same period. The Dynamic Time Warping path analysis suggests the presence of lead-lag relationships between the super-efficiency scores of China, as the reference economy, and the other economies. Finally, the Dynamic Time Warping Barycenter Averaging-k-means algorithm suggests the presence of four clusters.
实现高经济增长率一直是新兴经济体的首要目标。虽然一些国家近年来取得了显著的经济成就,但人们普遍认为,经济繁荣伴随着环境的迅速恶化。本研究旨在实证考察新兴经济体的发展过程是否具有环境效率。本研究采用基于松弛测度的非期望产出数据包络分析,计算并分析了14个主要新兴经济体1980 - 2019年的能源-环境超效率得分。本研究还使用动态时间扭曲非参数方法进行相似性分析,同时使用动态时间扭曲重心平均-k-means算法根据经济的能源-环境超效率将其分配到不同的集群中。研究结果揭示了关于超效率分数的大小和随时间演变的一些分歧。巴西、菲律宾、巴基斯坦和越南这四个新兴经济体的效率最高,而同期南非的得分最低。动态时间扭曲路径分析表明,中国作为参考经济体的超效率得分与其他经济体之间存在领先-滞后关系。最后,动态时间扭曲重心平均-k-means算法表明存在四个簇。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy
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