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Uncertainty quantification of offshore wind farms using Monte Carlo and sparse grid 基于蒙特卡罗和稀疏网格的海上风电场不确定性量化
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2000520
P. Richter, J. Wolters, Martin Frank
ABSTRACT The power produced by an offshore wind farm is subject to multiple uncertainties, such as volatile wind, turbine performance wear, and availability losses. Knowledge about the propagation of these uncertainties and their effect on the produced power is crucial in the design stage of a wind farm. Due to the multitude of uncertainties, an analysis requires high-dimensional numerical integration to determine these parameter sensitivities. Such an analysis has not been done in the current literature for the full set of parameters. In this work, a thorough analysis of all uncertainties is provided, modeled from several years of collected data from the existing wind farms Horns Rev 1, DanTysk, and Sandbank. The analysis reveals four major parameters, allowing the other parameters to be neglected in future measurement data acquisitions and sensitivity analysis processes. Furthermore, the accuracy of several Uncertainty Quantification techniques is analyzed and a recommendation for future analysis is given.
海上风电场产生的电力受到多种不确定性的影响,如不稳定风、涡轮机性能磨损和可用性损失。了解这些不确定性的传播及其对发电的影响在风电场的设计阶段是至关重要的。由于大量的不确定因素,分析需要高维数值积分来确定这些参数的灵敏度。在目前的文献中,还没有对全部参数进行这样的分析。在这项工作中,对所有不确定性进行了彻底的分析,并根据从现有风电场Horns Rev 1、DanTysk和Sandbank收集的数年数据进行了建模。分析揭示了四个主要参数,允许在未来的测量数据采集和灵敏度分析过程中忽略其他参数。此外,还分析了几种不确定度量化技术的准确性,并对今后的分析提出了建议。
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引用次数: 10
Protecting consumers in digitized and multi-source energy systems 保护数字化和多源能源系统中的消费者
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2012541
C. Decker
ABSTRACT This paper investigates if the consumer risks of digitized and multi-source energy systems are capable of being addressed under existing energy consumer protection frameworks. Two challenges are identified. First, under existing frameworks the decision about which entities are subject to consumer protection obligations is often binary and may not easily accommodate new energy products, business models, or supply arrangements. Second, the highly prescriptive and detailed nature of current frameworks are ill-suited to the changes occurring in energy markets that require policymakers to develop rules to mitigate consumer risks arising from a rapidly expanding group of products, sources and technologies. To address these challenges, we propose that frameworks adapt to be based around baseline rights for all consumers irrespective of how they source, manage, or consume energy. We also argue for greater reliance on co-regulation to develop, monitor, and enforce a series of codes to protect consumers from the risks of new energy products and services.
摘要本文研究了在现有的能源消费者保护框架下,数字化和多源能源系统的消费者风险是否能够得到解决。我们发现了两个挑战。首先,在现有框架下,关于哪些实体应承担消费者保护义务的决定往往是二元的,可能不容易适应新的能源产品、商业模式或供应安排。其次,当前框架的高度规定性和详细性不适合能源市场正在发生的变化,这些变化要求政策制定者制定规则,以减轻迅速扩大的产品、来源和技术带来的消费者风险。为了应对这些挑战,我们建议将框架调整为基于所有消费者的基线权利,而不管他们如何获取、管理或消耗能源。我们还主张更多地依靠共同监管来制定、监督和执行一系列法规,以保护消费者免受新能源产品和服务的风险。
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引用次数: 3
New energy downstream. Emerging business models and innovative best practices: an economic, institutional, and behavioral focus 新能源下游。新兴商业模式和创新最佳实践:经济、制度和行为焦点
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-12-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.2018647
A. Rubino, A. Facchini, Michael J. Fell, M. Giulietti, A. Morone
a potential
一个潜在的
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引用次数: 1
On accelerating the development of configurational innovation systems—the case of non-urban district heating in Germany 论加快结构创新体系的发展——以德国非城市区域供热为例
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-11-28 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1999345
J. Wesche, S. Negro, E. Dütschke, M. Hekkert
ABSTRACT The decarbonizing the heat sector is a major challenge in the energy transition in Germany and elsewhere. District heating systems could play an important role in this context. However, the diffusion of the technology in Germany has been very slow. The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the technological innovation system (TIS) to enhance understandings of the impediments to the diffusion of non-urban district heating systems. Due to its strong local context dependence, district heating can be understood as a configurational technology, and the TIS in which it is embedded as a configurational TIS. The paper contributes to the literature by developing policy suggestions that could lead to an acceleration of the diffusion of locally context-dependent technologies. The author recommends that policymaking in configurational TIS should aim at designing smart innovation system structures that can manage a high level of context specificity and facilitate vertical and horizontal knowledge exchange.
供热部门的脱碳是德国和其他地方能源转型的主要挑战。区域供热系统可以在这方面发挥重要作用。然而,这项技术在德国的推广一直非常缓慢。本文提出了技术创新系统(TIS)的综合分析,以加强对非城市区域供热系统扩散障碍的理解。由于其对当地环境的强烈依赖,区域供热可以被理解为一种配置技术,而它所嵌入的TIS则是一种配置TIS。本文通过提出政策建议来促进当地环境相关技术的加速传播,从而为文献做出了贡献。作者建议,配置型创新技术的政策制定应着眼于设计智能创新系统结构,使其能够管理高水平的情境特异性,并促进垂直和水平的知识交流。
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引用次数: 2
Fiscal Multipliers and Oil Price Fluctuations in Oil-Exporting Countries: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries 石油出口国的财政乘数与石油价格波动:来自海湾合作委员会国家的证据
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-11-02 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1986173
S. B. Slimane, Moez Ben Tahar, Mohamed Ali Houfi
ABSTRACT The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The paper explores asymmetries related to oil price changes (increase vs. decrease) and the state of the business cycle (expansion vs. recession).We used panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model, augmented by exogenous ‘dummy’ variables to estimate fiscal multipliers within a nonlinear framework.The results suggest that (i) linear multipliers are moderate and in line with those found in previous studies; (ii) the multipliers are larger for capital than for current expenditures; (iii) when controlling for oil price changes, the expenditure multipliers are higher during oil market downturns (oil price busts); (iv) spending multipliers are significantly larger when the output gap is negative. The importance of these findings lies on their policy suggestions. These findings indicate that fiscal policy should be designed based on oil price movements and economic fluctuations.
本文的目的是分析海湾合作委员会(GCC)国家框架内财政政策对非石油GDP的影响。本文探讨了与油价变化(上涨与下跌)和商业周期状态(扩张与衰退)相关的不对称性。我们使用面板结构向量自回归(VAR)模型,辅以外生“虚拟”变量,在非线性框架内估计财政乘数。结果表明:(1)线性乘数适中,与以往研究结果一致;(二)资本的乘数大于经常支出的乘数;(iii)在控制石油价格变化的情况下,石油市场低迷(石油价格崩溃)期间的支出乘数更高;(iv)当产出缺口为负时,支出乘数显著增大。这些发现的重要性在于它们提出的政策建议。这些发现表明,财政政策应根据石油价格变动和经济波动来制定。
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引用次数: 0
Research on the evaluation of China’s regional energy security and influencing factors 中国区域能源安全评价及影响因素研究
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-10-21 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1993383
M. Song, Weiliang Tao
ABSTRACT Significant increases in energy demand and a higher pressure on energy supply pose a great threat to energy security. This study evaluated the level of regional energy security in China and explored the influencing factors of energy security based on the spatial lag model. The results show that China’s overall and regional energy security is generally not high. Technological progress, ecological environment, and energy production can improve energy security, while energy consumption intensity, and population size negatively affect regional energy security. Moreover, the results indicate that the marginal effect of energy consumption intensity on energy security decreases as the technological level increases. Therefore, encouraging the development of high-tech industries, controlling the size of the population, stabilizing international energy supply, and strengthening foreign cooperation are of great significance to the improvement of energy security.
能源需求大幅增长,能源供应压力加大,对能源安全构成巨大威胁。基于空间滞后模型,对中国区域能源安全水平进行了评价,探讨了能源安全的影响因素。结果表明,中国整体和区域能源安全总体不高。技术进步、生态环境和能源生产对区域能源安全具有促进作用,而能源消费强度和人口规模对区域能源安全具有负向影响。能源消费强度对能源安全的边际效应随着技术水平的提高而降低。因此,鼓励发展高新技术产业,控制人口规模,稳定国际能源供应,加强对外合作,对改善能源安全具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 10
Consumer-centric and capital efficient design of community microgrids for financially-Strapped communities 为财政拮据的社区设计以消费者为中心和资本效率高的社区微电网
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1983083
Emi Minghui Gui, I. MacGill, R. Betz
ABSTRACT Subscription-based microgrids have been deployed to serve electricity needs of rural communities due to their simple user interfaces and basic energy management requirements. However, these projects often suffer from economic inefficiency to sustain long-term operations, lacking insufficient price signals and demand side, as well as uncertainties around consumer participation. This article proposes a consumer-centric planning and design framework for community microgrids, based on capacity subscription with self-rationing to reveal consumers’ real preferences in service reliability and their budget constraints, in order to achieve social welfare maximization and revenue adequacy. This capital efficient community microgrid greatly simplifies the microgrid investment planning, operation and scheduling, and reduces capital requirements and transaction costs, thus to improve electricity accessibility and affordability and to incentivize private sector investments. This is particularly advantageous in microgrid applications for financially strapped communities when incorporating high share of variable renewable energy generations. Requiring a lower level of investments than the current subscription-based microgrids, our analysis shows the benefits of the proposed design in improving the consumers’ surplus, and supply–demand matching, achieving cost recovery, and desired level of service reliability for consumers.
基于订阅的微电网由于其简单的用户界面和基本的能源管理要求,已被部署用于满足农村社区的电力需求。然而,这些项目往往遭受经济效率低下,无法维持长期运营,缺乏足够的价格信号和需求侧,以及消费者参与的不确定性。本文提出了一个以消费者为中心的社区微电网规划设计框架,基于容量订阅和自配给,揭示消费者对服务可靠性的真实偏好和预算约束,以实现社会福利最大化和收入充分性。这种资本高效的社区微电网大大简化了微电网的投资规划、运营和调度,降低了资本需求和交易成本,从而提高了电力的可及性和可负担性,并激励了私营部门的投资。这对于财政拮据的社区的微电网应用尤其有利,因为这些社区采用了大量可变的可再生能源。我们的分析表明,与目前基于订阅的微电网相比,该方案所需的投资水平较低,在改善消费者剩余、供需匹配、实现成本回收和消费者期望的服务可靠性方面,该方案的设计具有优势。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the United States crack spread: Market efficiency, persistence and the Verleger hypothesis 美国裂缝蔓延模型:市场效率、持久性和维勒格假说
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1986172
José Carlos Vides, Mónica Carmona, Julia Feria, A. Golpe
ABSTRACT The price formation of crude oil and its refined products plays an essential role in the global economic system and mainly in the United States, where any shock on this market has implications for the different concerned parties. In this sense, we employ the fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to analyze the long-run relationship between crude oil and each refined product and the persistence of the error term resulting, i.e., the crack spread, simultaneously. Once the cointegrating relationships between crude oil price and each refined product price are tested, we also evidence that the order of integration of the crack spread displays a long memory process. Finally, by attending to the coefficient adjustments, supply-driven market integration is given. Additionally, the Verleger hypothesis is rejected for all refined products, corroborated by the component share. This paper has important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.
原油及其成品油的价格形成在全球经济体系中起着至关重要的作用,主要是在美国,在这个市场上的任何冲击都会对不同的相关方产生影响。从这个意义上说,我们采用分数协整向量自回归模型来分析原油和每种成品油之间的长期关系,以及由此产生的误差项(即裂缝扩展)的持久性。对原油价格与各成品油价格之间的协整关系进行检验,也证明了裂缝价差的积分顺序具有较长的记忆过程。最后,通过注意系数调整,给出了供给驱动的市场一体化。此外,所有精炼产品的Verleger假设被拒绝,由成分份额证实。本文对投资者、能源政策制定者和炼油商具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 1
The value of invisibility: factors affecting social acceptance of renewable energy 不可见的价值:影响可再生能源社会接受度的因素
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1983891
A. Keeley, Kento Komatsubara, Shunsuke Managi
ABSTRACT Notwithstanding the global turn to renewable energy, its development is constrained by a lack of social acceptance. Various studies have evaluated citizens’ acceptance of and willingness to pay (WTP) for renewable energy and associated factors. We broadened the analytical framework of previous studies by incorporating spatial data on renewable and nonrenewable power plants, natural and produced capital, and renewable energy potential to determine key factors affecting social acceptance measured through WTP for renewable energy in Japan. We found that besides respondents’ ages, sex, education levels, and household incomes, their proximity to existing power plants generating renewable and nonrenewable energy and natural capital endowments in their locations significantly affected their WTP for renewable energy. Our analysis further revealed that whereas visible solar PV plants located within 3 km of respondents’ residences negatively affected their WTP, less visible plants at high elevations did not impact negatively on social acceptance.
尽管全球转向可再生能源,但其发展受到缺乏社会接受度的限制。各种研究评估了公民对可再生能源的接受度和支付意愿(WTP)及其相关因素。我们扩大了以往研究的分析框架,将可再生和不可再生发电厂、自然资本和生产资本以及可再生能源潜力的空间数据纳入其中,以确定影响日本可再生能源WTP测量的社会接受度的关键因素。研究发现,除了年龄、性别、受教育程度和家庭收入等因素外,他们对现有可再生能源和不可再生能源发电厂的接近程度以及所在地区的自然资本禀赋也显著影响了他们对可再生能源的WTP。我们的分析进一步表明,位于受访者住宅3公里范围内的可见太阳能光伏电站对他们的WTP产生负面影响,而位于高海拔地区的不太可见的太阳能光伏电站对社会接受度没有负面影响。
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引用次数: 7
A hybridized approach for design and optimization of combined economic emission dispatch 综合经济排放调度设计与优化的混合方法
IF 3.9 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.1080/15567249.2021.1971800
S. Acharya, Ganesan Sivarajan, D. V. Kumar, S. Srikrishna
ABSTRACT This paper proposes a new algorithm, known as Refraction based Whale Optimization Algorithm (RWOA), for providing optimal solutions to the Combined Economic Emission Dispatch problem based on the production of an optimum solar energy system. It validates the robustness of the proposed algorithm in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES). To control the emission and economic cost, it is necessary to connect the wind turbine with the thermal power plant. Finally, the performance of the proposed approach is compared with the other conventional approaches concerning the economic cost, emission cost transmission loss. Accordingly, the results, shows that the proposed RWOA method is 92.81%, 99.2%, 92.8%, 80%, 37.8%, 47.34%, and 45.83% superior to GA, GWO, WOA, DA, GWSO, LGSO and WWO at 40th iteration.
摘要针对基于最优太阳能系统产量的联合经济排放调度问题,提出了一种基于折射的鲸鱼优化算法(RWOA)。在混合可再生能源系统(HRES)中验证了该算法的鲁棒性。为了控制排放和经济成本,有必要将风力发电机组与火电厂连接起来。最后,从经济成本、排放成本、传输损失等方面与其他传统方法进行了比较。结果表明,在第40次迭代时,RWOA方法比GA、GWO、WOA、DA、GWSO、LGSO和WWO分别高出92.81%、99.2%、92.8%、80%、37.8%、47.34%和45.83%。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy
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