Pub Date : 2025-03-10DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557
Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima
To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.
{"title":"Factors influencing the access and utilization of climate information by farmers from different climate vulnerable districts of Northern Region, Ghana","authors":"Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable<!--> <!-->farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100557"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez
We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.
{"title":"Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services","authors":"Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100555"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143519480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-21DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak
The agricultural sector of Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its prevailing climate and limited water resources. Without the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, farmers may suffer enormous losses. A field survey was conducted in the Madinah region with the aim of analysing the status and factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers as well as their perspective about barriers to adaptation in the country. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire from 123 randomly selected farmers. Data were analysed using an ordered probit model. The findings reveal that approximately 50% of the crop and livestock producers have moderately adopted to climate change risks. Major factors that affect farmers’ adoption decisions include farmers’ age, education, farm size, farming type (except for livestock herders), extension linkages for crop farmers, availability of veterinary services for livestock farmers, moderate to high level of risk perception and climate change beliefs. A need for increased awareness about climate change vagaries, streamlining extension and veterinary services and promoting technical interventions such as drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties is warranted.
{"title":"Role of risk perception and climate change beliefs in adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Saudi Arabia","authors":"Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural sector of Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its prevailing climate and limited water resources. Without the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, farmers may suffer enormous losses. A field survey was conducted in the Madinah region with the aim of analysing the status and factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers as well as their perspective about barriers to adaptation in the country. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire from 123 randomly selected farmers. Data were analysed using an ordered probit model. The findings reveal that approximately 50% of the crop and livestock producers have moderately adopted to climate change risks. Major factors that affect farmers’ adoption decisions include farmers’ age, education, farm size, farming type (except for livestock herders), extension linkages for crop farmers, availability of veterinary services for livestock farmers, moderate to high level of risk perception and climate change beliefs. A need for increased awareness about climate change vagaries, streamlining extension and veterinary services and promoting technical interventions such as drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties is warranted.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100552"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143453240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-17DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551
Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu
This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.
{"title":"Himawari-8 satellite detection of morning terrain fog in a subtropical region","authors":"Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550
Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali
Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.
{"title":"Unveiling the determinants of climate change adaptation among small Landholders: Insights from a Mountainous Region in Pakistan","authors":"Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100550"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549
Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek
Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.
Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.
Practical implications
Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. Supplementary file 2 provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.
{"title":"Developing and testing an evaluation framework for climate services for adaptation","authors":"Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.
{"title":"Observed climate trends and farmers’ adaptation strategies in Dendi District, West Shewa Zone, Ethiopia","authors":"Busha Getachew , Gonfa Kewessa , Worku Hailu , Gezahegn Girma","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100548"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143349925","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.
{"title":"Rainfall forecasts, learning subsidies and conservation agriculture adoption: Experimental evidence from Zambia","authors":"Hambulo Ngoma , Esau Simutowe , João Vasco Silva , Isaiah Nyagumbo , Kelvin Kalala , Mukwemba Habeenzu , Christian Thierfelder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100547"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143232689","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study seeks to explore the farmers’ climate change perceptions, impacts, and underlying factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies in the drought-prone northwest region of Bangladesh. Primary data was collected from 375 sample households from four drought-prone districts (i.e., Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Dinajpur). The factors influencing the farmers’ adaptation practices were determined using a multinomial logistic model (MNL). During survey, farmers’ perceptions about climate change were identical to the meteorological trends of the last 60 years (1960–2022) except for Dinajpur station. In the study period drought were mainly affects increased cost of production, declining ground water levels, crop failures and scarcity of soil water, lower income, food scarcity etc. The MNL results showed that age, education, income, family size, farming experience, access to climate, farmer-to-farmer extension, social mobility, and loan subsidies directly influenced adaptation decisions. The most significant adaptation strategies adopted by the farmers were irrigation facilities, agronomic management, drought-tolerant rice varieties, adopting new technologies, and alternative enterprises of land use change. To protect farmers from natural disasters, especially drought, sustainable water management plan, credit support from government, less water consuming crops, new crop varieties and re-excavation of traditional ponds must be implemented in the study area.
Practical Implications
The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of adaptation to climate change, especially drought, and its implications in the Northwest region of Bangladesh. The country experiences various types of natural disasters, which means that the government and citizens have a long history of developing a significant track record of preparedness, adaptation, and recovery in response to such occurrences. It is well known that the prospect and occurrence of such catastrophes is a significant impediment to progress and the improvement of human welfare.
The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events due to climate change in South East Asia including Bangladesh is anticipated to intensify in the forthcoming years. In recent years, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature have serious impact on agricultural sector specially the northwest area of Bangladesh, with rural farmers heavily affected since they depend largely on rainfall for their livelihood. According to national adaptation plan of Bangladesh (NAP), the whole area of the country is susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change. However, the northwest region is particularly vulnerable to drought because of geoclimatic and man-made factors. Drought in this area are not only experienced through high rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature, but also shortage of groundwater, lack of canal
本研究旨在探讨孟加拉国西北干旱易发地区农民对气候变化的认知、影响和影响适应策略选择的潜在因素。主要数据收集自四个干旱易发地区（即拉杰沙希、查派纳瓦甘、Naogaon和Dinajpur）的375个样本家庭。采用多项logistic模型（MNL）确定影响农民适应行为的因素。在调查期间，除了Dinajpur站外，农民对气候变化的看法与过去60年（1960-2022）的气象趋势相同。在研究期内，干旱主要影响生产成本增加、地下水位下降、作物歉收和土壤缺水、收入减少、粮食短缺等。MNL的研究结果表明，年龄、教育程度、收入、家庭规模、农业经验、气候获取、农民之间的推广、社会流动性和贷款补贴直接影响了适应决策。农民采取的最重要的适应策略是灌溉设施、农艺管理、耐旱水稻品种、采用新技术和土地利用变化的替代企业。为保护农民免受自然灾害特别是干旱的影响，研究区必须实施可持续的水资源管理计划、政府信贷支持、节水作物、作物新品种和传统池塘的重新挖掘。实际意义本研究的目的是全面分析孟加拉国西北地区对气候变化，特别是干旱的适应及其影响。这个国家经历了各种类型的自然灾害，这意味着政府和公民在应对此类事件的准备、适应和恢复方面有着悠久的历史。众所周知，这种灾难的前景和发生是进步和改善人类福利的重大障碍。由于气候变化，包括孟加拉国在内的东南亚地区极端天气事件的频率和严重程度预计将在未来几年加剧。近年来，降雨量减少和气温升高严重影响了农业部门，特别是孟加拉国西北部地区，农村农民受到严重影响，因为他们主要依靠降雨为生。根据孟加拉国国家适应计划（NAP），该国整个地区都容易受到气候变化的不利影响。然而，由于地理气候和人为因素的影响，西北地区尤其容易受到干旱的影响。该地区的干旱不仅表现为高降雨变率和高温，地下水短缺、缺乏运河和河流的拖曳、人口密度高、森林砍伐等因素也加速了该地区干旱的严重程度（Habiba et al., 2012）。在一个容易发生干旱的地区，水资源短缺正成为一个严重的问题，因为有限的降雨和过度抽取地下水用于灌溉可能对环境和气候变化产生不利影响。在我国，适应干旱在应对干旱中的作用没有得到很好的组织，但它是农业和经济增长的一个至关重要的问题。很少有研究关注农民对气候变化的看法和认知，以及他们对特定农业生产的适应策略。本研究主要考察了主要气候变量及其变化趋势、农民对气候变化和干旱的认知、适应策略以及影响策略选择的因素。所需数据是从孟加拉国西北部干旱易发地区的4个县（Rajshahi、Noagaon、Dinajpur和Chapainawabganj）的375个农户中收集的。我们的研究结果表明，大约95.6%的农民声称气候在过去30年里发生了巨大变化。旱季延长、降水少、气温升高、暖日数增加、阴雨日数减少、人为原因等降水和温度扰动的变化。在本研究中，我们使用5点李克特量表，清晰地描述了农民对干旱的感知。在研究期间，Rajshahi站的降雨量呈减少趋势，而Dinajpur站的降雨量呈增加趋势，但温度则相反（反之亦然）。干旱主要影响各种与农业有关的问题和生产，如生产成本增加、地下水位下降、作物歉收、土壤缺水、收入减少、粮食短缺、健康影响、营养不良、牲畜损失、水质恶化和失业。 农民主要提出用加权平均指数对这些影响进行排序，以找出干旱的主要影响。在研究区，我们观察到农民使用各种类型的土著和传统耕作方法，如耐旱水稻品种，农艺管理，重新挖掘传统池塘，增加地表水量，雨水收集，灌溉设施，作物集约化，土地利用变化的替代进入奖励，作物轮作和改变种植日期，额外的创收活动，采用新技术等。MNL的研究结果表明，年龄、教育程度、收入、家庭规模、农业经验、获得气候、农民与农民之间的推广、社会流动性和贷款补贴直接影响农民实施的最重要的适应战略。本研究通过考察农民对干旱及其后果和潜在应对机制的认知和认识，努力在评估气候变化影响和适应措施时优先考虑弱势群体的观点。更好地了解农民对气候变化和变率的看法、现有的适应措施以及影响这些措施的因素，对于实施更好的政策以促进农业产业未来的适应非常重要（Nhemachena和Hassan， 2007年）。为了确保区域粮食安全，这项研究可以开启与各种利益攸关方（如小农和自耕农）相关的影响和适应战略的讨论，并有助于减轻干旱对农业生产的不利影响。
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Pub Date : 2025-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545
Julie André , Benjamin Le Roy , Aude Lemonsu , Morgane Colombert , Valéry Masson
The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.
{"title":"How to disseminate the research results on climate change impacts in cities to guide adaptation public policies ? Application to the Paris region (France)","authors":"Julie André , Benjamin Le Roy , Aude Lemonsu , Morgane Colombert , Valéry Masson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100545"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143180854","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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