Climate Services最新文献

In this paper we present an operational system for drought monitoring and early warning over South Africa-Lesotho. The indicators used for the alert issuance are based on meteorological, agricultural and hydrological indices, assembled by satellite and reanalysis raw data, to cover for all aspects of drought. The service is operationally updated every 10 days and has a spatial resolution of 10 Km. A severe drought period for South Africa covering the time period 2017–2020 was used to test the performance of the drought system. Our analysis indicated that the service is useful, providing sufficient warning on the onsets of and duration of droughts. Comparison of our results with a South African national drought service indicates a very good agreement in early warning messaging. The service is particularly user friendly and easily transferable to any region worldwide.

Access to reliable and skillful Climate Information Service (CIS) is crucial for smallholder farmers in Bangladesh to mitigate the impacts of rainfall variability and extremes. This study aims to systematically evaluate the performance of CIS in providing Scientific Forecast (SF) and Local Forecast (LF) to smallholders in Bangladesh. The results were then compared with farmers’ perceptions of the forecast accuracy. Additionally, the skill of a simple hybrid forecast (HF), which is an integrated system of SF and LF, was assessed using the ERA5 and ground observation datasets as benchmarks. The SF and LF data were obtained from the meteoblue hindcast and from the interview, respectively. The results indicate that, overall, LF exhibits slightly higher skill compared to SF when evaluated against the ERA5 dataset. The forecast performance, however, declines by almost half when the ground-based observations are used, associated with high false alarms. Farmers, on the other hand, perceived SF to possess superior performance compared to LF. This study demonstrates that combining the SF and LF into a simple HF yields higher forecast skill than either individual forecast, highlighting the importance of HF to deliver a reliable and trustworthy weather forecast.

Viticulturists developing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change, which affects a grapevine’s physiology and wine typicity, can benefit from climate services. Climate services translate physically based variables, such as temperature and precipitation, into actionable, decision relevant bioclimatic indicators, such as Spring Rain, Heat Stress Days, and Warm Spell Duration. These bioclimatic indicators enable the mitigation of fungal diseases, specifically downy and powdery mildew, as well as sunburn. Accurate seasonal forecasts of these bioclimatic indicators can help farmers with viticulture, labor, and stock management, as well as improve the yield and value of wine-quality grapes. Seasonal forecasts of these indicators are available on the MED-GOLD project’s dashboard. This study determines an annual service fee to access these forecasts on the dashboard. The annual fee accounts for the seasonal forecast accuracy over part of the Douro wine region of Portugal, as well as the potential savings and losses of micro ($⩽$1 ha) holding grape growers. The revenue generated from this climate service fee exceeds the cost of dashboard maintenance by nearly 10 times, even with a fee which is less than half of the potential savings of the micro holding farmer.

The Spanish region of Andalusia is the world-leading olive oil producer. Its olive-dominated landscapes are among the most biodiverse drylands of the globe and prospectively among the areas most affected by climate change. This analysis used physiologically based demographic modeling (PBDM) to assess the impact of climate change on the olive/olive fly system of Andalusia. The analysis was implemented on cloud computing, allowing PBDM models to be run from any computer connected to the internet, to interface with state-of-the-art climatic drivers, and to scale efficiently with increasing computational loads and user requests. Findings include that chilling required for olive blooming will decrease in large areas of the Andalusian provinces of Jaen, Cordoba, and Sevilla, with some areas not meeting the minimum chilling threshold and some accumulating no chilling by the end of the century under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario. Olive blooming will occur up to five weeks earlier in the Jaen, Cordoba, Sevilla, and Granada provinces, but olive yield is expected to increase or remain stable. Olive fly infestation will decrease with climate change, with infestations below the reference economic threshold of 4 % towards the end of the century in some areas under high GHG emission scenario. Measures to adapt Andalusian olive systems to climate change include: selecting olive cultivars with lower chilling requirements; implementing cover crops to enhance water use efficiency under increased CO₂ concentration and uncertain precipitation projections; and targeting the spring generation of the fly and diversifying the olive landscape to reduce infestation levels.

Climate-induced sea-level rise threatens the world’s coastal populations, critical infrastructure, and ecosystems. The science of sea-level rise (SLR) has developed to inform understanding of global climate mitigation and adaptation challenges, but there is much less engagement with practitioners to discern their climate services needs and support the development of adaptation planning and action on the ground. In addition, adaptation planning and implementation processes for SLR are relatively new and practitioners developing leading practices are seeking interaction with their peers and the SLR science community. To address these gaps, we co-produced online global workshops with sixty-nine practitioners from twenty-six countries. These workshops aimed to increase understanding of the state of SLR adaptation planning practice worldwide, gather information on practitioners' existing knowledge and service needs to advance their adaptation efforts, and facilitate exchange between practitioners engaged with coastal adaptation and the SLR science community. The workshops uncovered commonalities across contexts and identified consistent needs from scientists and other technical experts amongst the practitioner community. These needs include generating more localized SLR impact data, understanding of compound risk, creating data timelines for decision making, and developing clarity about uncertainties and probabilities. We also observed important differences between urban and rural locations and between places with different economic resources. To meet their needs, practitioners identified three crucial next steps: 1) Develop more online engagement opportunities, 2) Establish a global practitioner community of practice, and 3) Scale and improve the provision of climate services.

Co-design processes involving the scientific community, practitioners, end users and stakeholders can efficiently characterize harmful weather events during the growing season that potentially result in losses of crop yield and quality. This study builds on the experience of the EU Horizon 2020 project MED-GOLD for grape and olive. The identified agro-climate indicators are extended from the MED-GOLD regions to the entire ones where grape and olive are currently grown in Europe and Turkey, and used to assess climate change impacts with intrinsic adaptation relevance stemming from the co-design process. Before 2000, only a low fraction of the European grape and olive growing areas was exposed to extreme weather events as revealed by the agro-climate indicators, but this has changed rapidly afterward. Projections show increasingly widespread extreme high temperature events from 2020 to 2080. Approximately one-third of grapevine regions and over half of olive cultivation areas are expected to experience extreme drought conditions. Additionally, the frequency of compound extreme events will increase in the future, especially in the Mediterranean region and under the high-end emission scenario RCP8.5. This outcome calls for a new decision-making mindset that embeds expected levels of climate variability and extremes as the “new normal” for grape and olive in Europe. This will facilitate deployment of the required biophysical, economic and policy adaptation tools.

Issues around bundling of climate smart agriculture (CSA) and climate information services (CIS) have been kept relatively distinct whereas in reality, they are more impactful when integrated. Using the case of the Accelerating Impacts of CGIAR Climate Change Research in Africa (AICCRA) Project that emphasizes bundling as a critical component of research in development, six regions of Ghana were purposively selected based on the identified value chain crops for implementation. 120 respondents including practicing farmers and advisors as reference, rated contributions of 21 innovations to 25 climate smartness indicators. These include gender, youth and social inclusion (GSI), enabling environment (EE), ability to enhance soil, water, crop and animal health (One-Health Achievement) (OHA), end-user friendliness (EUF) and climate smart agriculture (CS) for prioritization, bundling and ultimately to construct a Climate Smart Readiness Index (CSRI). There was a high level of concordance between the ratings of farmers and advisors on the Climate Smartness; moderate concordance on OHA and a lower concordance on GSI. The CS and EUF had a significant and same agreement among farmers while EE had a substantial same agreement among advisors. These elements (CS, GSI, OHA, EUF, EE) formed an integral part of the CSRI construct confirmed by the Fornell-Larcker and the Heterotrait-Monotrait criteria. While OHA was the fundamental factor in determining CSRI for farmers, EE was considered more important by the advisors. CSRI informs policy makers and agricultural practitioners on appropriate bundling of CSA and CIS practices to generate evidence for farmer preparedness in the context of resilience, productivity, adaptation, and mitigation.

With global climate change, temperatures in Switzerland are projected to rise in the coming decades, according to the national climate scenarios CH2018. Associated with the mean temperature increase, heatwaves are expected to become longer, more frequent, and more intense. The changing climate will affect the indoor climate as well as heating and cooling needs. In building design, these climatic changes have to be planned for today in order to ensure a comfortable indoor climate in the future.

In collaboration with practitioners, a reference climate data set for the future is created that specifically targets building designers and engineers. The data set consists of hourly weather data of one-year length based on the Swiss climate change scenarios CH2018. These future reference years are representative of two time periods in the future: one around 2030 and one around 2060. Climate change uncertainty is considered by using two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Reference data for the future is provided not only for a typical year (called Design Reference Year, or DRY) but also for an above-average warm summer. The data is available at the sites of 45 measurement stations across Switzerland, including four stations inside major cities to take the urban heat island effect into account.

The generated climate data set is applied to a building model to provide an application example. The results point out that the cooling needs will substantially increase, which is why an adaptation of the building design to the changing climate is vital.

The Sudd Wetland, which supports millions of pastoralists and farmers, as well as the internationally renowned Ramsar Wetland, are under pressure from population growth and climate change extremes such as flooding and drought. Using the Climate Hazards Group Infrareds Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Climate Research Unit (CRU-TS4.06) datasets, this study investigates the spatiotemporal trend and variability of precipitation and temperature. As a result, descriptive statistics were used to describe the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation and temperature. The Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) was used to detect the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation. The Pearson correlation method was used to investigate the relationship between Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and precipitation. The results revealed that Sudd-wetland receives 910 mm mean spatial annual precipitation and experienced 36 °C mean annual temperature with high spatio-temporal variations. It receives the highest precipitation in summer season followed by autumn and spring. The precipitation amount decreases towards the north in all seasons. In both the summer and winter seasons, observed rainfall variability corresponds substantially to ENSO variability, whereas the spring and autumn seasons are more connected with Atlantic and Indian Ocean Sea surface temperature gradients. The Sudd wetland has been affected by prolonged drought and frequent flood events alternatively. The prolonged drought linking with the shrinking of the wetland are potential threats to the farmers and pastoralists to adapt the changing climate. Hence, it is imperative to systematically analyze the wetland ecosystem from different dimensions and adjust the livelihood settings of the people in to less climate sensitive activities. Therefore, we suggest in depth drought and flood risk evaluation and implementation of realistic adaptation strategy to sustain the ecological and economic benefit of the wetland.