This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.
{"title":"Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban heat island using Google Earth Engine: Assessment and prediction—A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal","authors":"Bishal Khatri, Bipin Kharel, Pragati Dhakal, Samrat Acharya, Ujjwol Thapa","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100560"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143759743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563
Murray Scown , Haomiao Du , Guy Jackson , Salvatore Paolo De Rosa , Emily Boyd
Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&D (CS4L&D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&D.
{"title":"Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage","authors":"Murray Scown , Haomiao Du , Guy Jackson , Salvatore Paolo De Rosa , Emily Boyd","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&D (CS4L&D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&D.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100563"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143808252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change is currently an inevitable phenomenon, due to the increase in greenhouse gases, deforestation, and low-tech agricultural development, which increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and food insecurity, especially in rural areas. A viable alternative to counteract the effects of climate change is to seek adaptation measures based on the perception and experience of farmers. This research evaluated the perception of climate change and adaptation measures those farmers in nine places of Zamora, province of Zamora Chinchipe-Ecuador, have regarding the risks posed by climate change. Data were collected in 2019–2020 through semi-structured surveys, composed of multiple-choice and open-ended questions. The results indicate that there have been climate changes in the last 5 years, caused by agricultural activities (deforestation, burning, use of agrochemicals, garbage), but most are unaware of mitigation and adaptation strategies; therefore, it is appropriate to generate knowledge regarding this phenomenon. On the other hand, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and economic activity among the farmers of Zamora showed significant effects on the perception of the effects of climate change. As such, this perception along with the experience of farmers, could support the development of training programs to seek alternatives for adaptation and mitigation in the study area.
{"title":"Perspectives on climate change and adaptation and mitigation measures amongst farmers of Zamora − Ecuador","authors":"Daniel Capa-Mora , Jairo Medina , Ángel Benítez , Leticia Jiménez Álvarez","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100565","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100565","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is currently an inevitable phenomenon, due to the increase in greenhouse gases, deforestation, and low-tech agricultural development, which increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and food insecurity, especially in rural areas. A viable alternative to counteract the effects of climate change is to seek adaptation measures based on the perception and experience of farmers. This research evaluated the perception of climate change and adaptation measures those farmers in nine places of Zamora, province of Zamora Chinchipe-Ecuador, have regarding the risks posed by climate change. Data were collected in 2019–2020 through semi-structured surveys, composed of multiple-choice and open-ended questions. The results indicate that there have been climate changes in the last 5 years, caused by agricultural activities (deforestation, burning, use of agrochemicals, garbage), but most are unaware of mitigation and adaptation strategies; therefore, it is appropriate to generate knowledge regarding this phenomenon. On the other hand, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and economic activity among the farmers of Zamora showed significant effects on the perception of the effects of climate change. As such, this perception along with the experience of farmers, could support the development of training programs to seek alternatives for adaptation and mitigation in the study area.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100565"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564
Nazan An , Zekican Demiralay , Meltem Ucal , M. Levent Kurnaz
Environmental migration has recently become primary source of population growth and environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives. For understanding of the environmental degradation impact on migration, a hybrid approach (regional climate modelling, RegCM4.4 and statistical modelling, ordered logit) has been applied for 65 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. It is aimed to examine how climate change affect migration by applying fundamental climate variables (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and the control variables (i.e., the hot days, the tropical nights, and the dry days) in the MENA. While key findings indicate an increase in the minimum temperatures (Tmin) in future in all populous cities, the water amount may further decrease in the mid-latitude and Mediterranean with temperate climates due to precipitation change. While it may pose a high risk in the regions having experienced extreme temperatures e.g., tropical nights (Tn), it may further adversely affect ones not having experienced extremes. Considering statistically significant positive relationship between Tmin, and net migration rate (NMIG), and negative relationship between precipitation and NMIG, it may encourage migration to cooler regions.
{"title":"The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain","authors":"Nazan An , Zekican Demiralay , Meltem Ucal , M. Levent Kurnaz","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Environmental migration has recently become primary source of population growth and environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives. For understanding of the environmental degradation impact on migration, a hybrid approach <em>(regional climate modelling, RegCM4.4</em> and <em>statistical modelling, ordered logit) has been applied for</em> 65 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. It is aimed to examine how climate change affect migration by applying fundamental climate variables (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and the control variables (i.e., the hot days, the tropical nights, and the dry days) in the MENA. While key findings indicate an increase in the minimum temperatures <strong>(T<sub>min</sub>)</strong> in future in all populous cities, the water amount may further decrease in the mid-latitude and Mediterranean with temperate climates due to precipitation change. While it may pose a high risk in the regions having experienced extreme temperatures e.g., tropical nights (<strong>T<sub>n</sub></strong>), it may further adversely affect ones not having experienced extremes. Considering statistically significant positive relationship between <strong>T<sub>min,</sub></strong> and net migration rate (<strong>N<sub>MIG</sub>),</strong> and negative relationship between precipitation and <strong>N<sub>MIG</sub>,</strong> it may encourage migration to cooler regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100564"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143844045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580
Victor Owusu , Jacob Asravor
Mounting evidence underscores the importance of improving smallholder farmers’ use of reliable climate information (CI) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies have not examined the differences in region-specific climate information use, as well as predictors of the source, type and timing of climate information use. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on how location-specific differences influence the source, type and timing of CI use. Integrating cross-sectional data from 503 households in the Upper West Region (UWR) and Brong-Ahafo Region (BAR) of Ghana into a multivariate probit model, our results indicate that farm households in the two regions exhibit different preferences regarding the source, type and timing of CI use. We find that while households in the BAR are more interested in CI ahead of the season – given that rainfall is relatively secure in that region, CI use ahead of the season is of less interest to those in the UWR where rainfall is more erratic. Our results further show that while CI source, type and timing are considerably influenced by education, distance to the farm, access to credit and extension in the UWR, gender, farm size, education and tractor access tend to drive the source, type and timing of CI use in BAR. These findings underscore the need for a more downscaled and context-specific strategy in disseminating CI services in the various regions of SSA.
Practical implications
Notwithstanding evidence that the adverse impacts of the changing climate on smallholder livelihoods continue to vary within and across communities, districts, regions and agro-ecological zones (Abbam et al., 2018) in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about how location-specific distinctions in climate change impact, infrastructural endowments as well as socioeconomic and plot-level attributes of smallholder farmers influence farm households’ use of climate information (CI). Given that these location-specific distinctions can considerably influence the generation and dissemination of CI, and its subsequent uptake by farm households in various regions, the empirical findings from this study are relevant for policy formulation towards boosting the use of CI. Evidence from this study strongly suggests that the diverse locations of smallholder farmers tend to significantly influence the source, type and period of CI use; for example, farm households in the Brong-Ahafo Region, a relatively more infrastructurally developed region, have better prospects of accessing different types of CI from diverse sources. We further find that the period of the cropping season in which CI is used is considerably influenced by the location of the farmers; and we identify disparities in the plot-level, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of rural households in these two study regions that significantly influence the types, sources and times of CI used by farm households. Con
越来越多的证据强调了在撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）提高小农对可靠气候信息（CI）使用的重要性。以前的研究没有检查特定区域气候信息使用的差异，以及气候信息使用的来源、类型和时间的预测因子。在本研究中，我们提供了实证证据，说明地域差异如何影响CI使用的来源、类型和时间。将来自加纳上西部地区（UWR）和布朗-阿哈福地区（BAR）的503户家庭的横截面数据整合到一个多变量概率模型中，我们的结果表明，两个地区的农户在CI使用的来源、类型和时间方面表现出不同的偏好。我们发现，虽然BAR地区的家庭对季节前的CI更感兴趣——考虑到该地区的降雨相对安全，但对于降雨更不稳定的UWR地区的家庭来说，在季节前使用CI不太感兴趣。我们的研究结果进一步表明，尽管教育程度、距离农场的距离、获得信贷和推广的机会对信任信任的来源、类型和时间有显著影响，但性别、农场规模、教育程度和拖拉机获取倾向于影响BAR信任信任的来源、类型和时间。这些发现强调，在SSA的各个地区推广CI服务时，需要采用一种规模更小、针对具体情况的策略。尽管有证据表明，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，气候变化对小农生计的不利影响在社区、地区、地区和农业生态区内部和之间继续存在差异（Abbam et al., 2018），但人们对气候变化影响的具体位置差异知之甚少。基础设施禀赋以及小农的社会经济和地块属性影响农户对气候信息的使用。鉴于这些特定地点的差异可以显著影响CI的产生和传播，以及不同地区农户随后对CI的吸收，本研究的实证结果与制定促进CI使用的政策相关。本研究的证据强烈表明，小农的不同地点倾向于显著影响CI使用的来源、类型和时间；例如，在基础设施相对较发达的布隆-阿哈福地区，农户从不同来源获得不同类型的CI的前景更好。我们进一步发现，使用CI的种植季节期间受到农民位置的显着影响；我们发现，这两个研究区域的农户在地块水平、制度和社会经济特征方面存在差异，这些差异显著影响了农户使用CI的类型、来源和时间。因此，有必要考虑到农户独特的区域、农业生态、地块水平、制度和社会经济属性。有关CI使用的政策建议应根据这些特定地点的需求量身定制，而不是全盘照搬。对农村基础设施的投资可能会为上西部地区等贫困地区带来经济机会。这可能会促使这些地区的农村家庭投资于不同的CI类型和来源，以加强对气候信息的吸收。
{"title":"Do regional-specific differences influence smallholder farmers’ climate information use? Evidence from Ghana","authors":"Victor Owusu , Jacob Asravor","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mounting evidence underscores the importance of improving smallholder farmers’ use of reliable climate information (CI) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies have not examined the differences in region-specific climate information use, as well as predictors of the source, type and timing of climate information use. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on how location-specific differences influence the source, type and timing of CI use. Integrating cross-sectional data from 503 households in the Upper West Region (UWR) and Brong-Ahafo Region (BAR) of Ghana into a multivariate probit model, our results indicate that farm households in the two regions exhibit different preferences regarding the source, type and timing of CI use. We find that while households in the BAR are more interested in CI ahead of the season – given that rainfall is relatively secure in that region, CI use ahead of the season is of less interest to those in the UWR where rainfall is more erratic. Our results further show that while CI source, type and timing are considerably influenced by education, distance to the farm, access to credit and extension in the UWR, gender, farm size, education and tractor access tend to drive the source, type and timing of CI use in BAR. These findings underscore the need for a more downscaled and context-specific strategy in disseminating CI services in the various regions of SSA.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Notwithstanding evidence that the adverse impacts of the changing climate on smallholder livelihoods continue to vary within and across communities, districts, regions and agro-ecological zones (<span><span>Abbam et al., 2018</span></span>) in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about how location-specific distinctions in climate change impact, infrastructural endowments as well as socioeconomic and plot-level attributes of smallholder farmers influence farm households’ use of climate information (CI). Given that these location-specific distinctions can considerably influence the generation and dissemination of CI, and its subsequent uptake by farm households in various regions, the empirical findings from this study are relevant for policy formulation towards boosting the use of CI. Evidence from this study strongly suggests that the diverse locations of smallholder farmers tend to significantly influence the source, type and period of CI use; for example, farm households in the Brong-Ahafo Region, a relatively more infrastructurally developed region, have better prospects of accessing different types of CI from diverse sources. We further find that the period of the cropping season in which CI is used is considerably influenced by the location of the farmers; and we identify disparities in the plot-level, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of rural households in these two study regions that significantly influence the types, sources and times of CI used by farm households. Con","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100575
Maria del Pozo Garcia , Judith Gulikers , Bregje van der Bolt , Wouter Smolenaars , Estella Oncins , Perry den Brok , Fulco Ludwig
Defining and categorizing users within climate services is essential for effective capacity building, yet existing classifications remain ambiguous, particularly regarding their roles in collaborative processes. While the literature commonly categorizes users based on their roles in the production chain—from data providers to end-users— there is a need for a more nuanced understanding of these roles, particularly in relation to the knowledge and skills required for capacity building. This study aims to systematically identify and distinguish different target groups within climate services and identify the specific competencies required for effective participation. Using the Delphi method, we engaged a panel of expert trainers from CS capacity-building programs in three rounds of questionnaires. These questionnaires were designed to explore and refine their understanding of key target groups and the knowledge and skills required for each. Additionally, we assessed the trainers’ confidence levels in their evaluations of these aspects. Our findings establish a consensus on four primary target groups—Producers, Intermediaries, Enablers, and Reach-Out—each encompassing distinct sub-groups. Despite some overlap, the fourteen identified sub-groups possess unique knowledge and skills essential for the collaborative climate services. The results underscore the diversity of target groups in the climate production chain and highlight the necessity for tailored capacity building programs to address their specific needs. By enhancing the understanding of target audiences, climate services training initiatives can more effectively support the development of relevant competencies, ultimately strengthening the collaboration needed for climate services.
{"title":"Structuring climate service user groups for capacity building: A European Delphi-based approach","authors":"Maria del Pozo Garcia , Judith Gulikers , Bregje van der Bolt , Wouter Smolenaars , Estella Oncins , Perry den Brok , Fulco Ludwig","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100575","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100575","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Defining and categorizing users within climate services is essential for effective capacity building, yet existing classifications remain ambiguous, particularly regarding their roles in collaborative processes. While the literature commonly categorizes users based on their roles in the production chain—from data providers to end-users— there is a need for a more nuanced understanding of these roles, particularly in relation to the knowledge and skills required for capacity building. This study aims to systematically identify and distinguish different target groups within climate services and identify the specific competencies required for effective participation. Using the Delphi method, we engaged a panel of expert trainers from CS capacity-building programs in three rounds of questionnaires. These questionnaires were designed to explore and refine their understanding of key target groups and the knowledge and skills required for each. Additionally, we assessed the trainers’ confidence levels in their evaluations of these aspects. Our findings establish a consensus on four primary target groups—Producers, Intermediaries, Enablers, and Reach-Out—each encompassing distinct sub-groups. Despite some overlap, the fourteen identified sub-groups possess unique knowledge and skills essential for the collaborative climate services. The results underscore the diversity of target groups in the climate production chain and highlight the necessity for tailored capacity building programs to address their specific needs. By enhancing the understanding of target audiences, climate services training initiatives can more effectively support the development of relevant competencies, ultimately strengthening the collaboration needed for climate services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100575"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143942647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six Kebeles utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p < 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p < 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p < 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p < 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.
本研究旨在评估气候趋势和变率对西阿尔西地区主要生计方式（作物生产）的影响，以及农民对当地气候变化的认知和适应。在六个Kebeles参加调查的364个样本家庭中，354个家庭使用标准化问卷收集的数据作为本调查的基础。在对所有问卷部分的回复进行完整性审查后，从数据分析中删除了十个回复不完整的调查。该研究还使用了主要线人访谈、焦点小组、来自埃塞俄比亚气象研究所的气象数据、来自西阿尔西地区农业局和灾害风险管理办公室的作物和援助受益人数据。曼-肯德尔统计检验用于分析气候趋势。采用SPSS v.25和Ms Excel软件中的描述性和多元统计模型对数据进行分析。结果表明，年平均气温(p <；0.001)，年降雨量显著减少(p <；在1983年至2019年期间，研究区域每年上升3.7毫米（0.1）。结果表明，年降雨量是作物产量的显著预测因子(t = 15.24, p <；0.05)，并揭示了家庭适应实践的显著差异(p <；0.001)。该研究还表明，家庭人口和社会经济因素显著影响了他们的适应选择，强调需要进一步研究加强地方适应战略的干预措施。
{"title":"Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia","authors":"Abebe Engda , Fantaw Yimer , Muluken Mekuyie , Menfese Tadesse","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six <em>Kebeles</em> utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p < 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p < 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p < 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p < 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100561"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569
Tanaya Sarmah , Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan , Abdullah Konak , Elisabeth Shrimpton , Karina Simone Sass , Marina Batalini De Macedo , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo , Adelaide Cassia Nardocci , Da Huo , Michael Gregory Jacobson
Water-related stresses and risks of droughts, exacerbated by climate change, have been extensively documented. These studies often rely on various indicators to monitor and forecast the impacts of droughts. However, current literature on the usability of these indicators for modelling drought risk and in decision-making processes is fragmented and lacks a clear, systematic, and methodological approach. Usability, in this context, refers to the relevance, accessibility, clarity, and practicality of indicators for guiding planning strategies. To address this knowledge gap, the Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS)1 project aims to collate and assess drought vulnerability and resilience indicators from existing literature to support decision-makers in improving policies related to agricultural droughts on small farms.
The MADIS project identified over 100 indicators, from which 36 were selected for further analysis. A global online survey using the Delphi technique was conducted, and the resulting data was used to perform a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Findings revealed that these 36 indicators could be reduced and grouped up to ten principal components, each corresponding to a theme across five categories: relevancy, understanding, accessibility, objectivity, and temporal. This study, therefore, highlights the practical usability of these indicators for developing context-specific and efficient resilience strategies.
Indicators related to water management were found to be crucial and applicable across all five categories, as the availability, quality, and source of water are essential for monitoring and mitigating drought hazards. Conversely, indicators related to rural development and demographics, while quantifiable and collected at different temporal scales, were deemed less understandable and accessible by experts. Grouping indicators under common themes reduces the complexity of evaluating similar indicators and aids in selecting the most relevant ones for different contexts. This approach simplifies indicator selection and enables decision-makers to formulate resilience policies more efficiently and comprehensively.
{"title":"Usability of agricultural drought vulnerability and resilience indicators in planning strategies for small farms: A principal component approach","authors":"Tanaya Sarmah , Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan , Abdullah Konak , Elisabeth Shrimpton , Karina Simone Sass , Marina Batalini De Macedo , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo , Adelaide Cassia Nardocci , Da Huo , Michael Gregory Jacobson","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Water-related stresses and risks of droughts, exacerbated by climate change, have been extensively documented. These studies often rely on various indicators to monitor and forecast the impacts of droughts. However, current literature on the usability of these indicators for modelling drought risk and in decision-making processes is fragmented and lacks a clear, systematic, and methodological approach. Usability, in this context, refers to the relevance, accessibility, clarity, and practicality of indicators for guiding planning strategies. To address this knowledge gap, the Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS)<span><span><sup>1</sup></span></span> project aims to collate and assess drought vulnerability and resilience indicators from existing literature to support decision-makers in improving policies related to agricultural droughts on small farms.</div><div>The MADIS project identified over 100 indicators, from which 36 were selected for further analysis. A global online survey using the Delphi technique was conducted, and the resulting data was used to perform a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Findings revealed that these 36 indicators could be reduced and grouped up to ten principal components, each corresponding to a theme across five categories: relevancy, understanding, accessibility, objectivity, and temporal. This study, therefore, highlights the practical usability of these indicators for developing context-specific and efficient resilience strategies.</div><div>Indicators related to water management were found to be crucial and applicable across all five categories, as the availability, quality, and source of water are essential for monitoring and mitigating drought hazards. Conversely, indicators related to rural development and demographics, while quantifiable and collected at different temporal scales, were deemed less understandable and accessible by experts. Grouping indicators under common themes reduces the complexity of evaluating similar indicators and aids in selecting the most relevant ones for different contexts. This approach simplifies indicator selection and enables decision-makers to formulate resilience policies more efficiently and comprehensively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100569"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143902065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577
Christopher R. Goddard , Galina Guentchev , Erika J. Palin , Mark Harrison , Jason A. Lowe , Tyrone Dunbar , Elizabeth Fuller , Chris Counsell , John Dora , Tim Reeder
Upscaling is the process of moving beyond pilots or prototypes to repeatable and/or transferable services that are accessible and useful to stakeholders and users. It may also refer to increasing the provision, reach, or impact of an existing service. Upscaling any service or product is a complex process, which – in the case of climate services – is exacerbated by serving an emerging market, and many projects taking place in academic settings with short term funding cycles. Climate service providers, their delivery partners and funders could benefit from increased reach and impact by explicitly considering how their services can scale and what the enablers and barriers to this may be. This could take the form of reviewing academic literature, applying structured frameworks, or learning from best practice examples.
Here, we describe the process of creating, testing, and refining an upscaling approach for climate services. The resulting approach is presented, alongside case studies that helped update it and provide evidence for its usefulness and useability. This detailed study of upscaling climate services sets the foundation for effective and sustainable provision of climate services beyond pilots and prototypes and further development of upscaling frameworks and tools to this end.
{"title":"Creating and testing an approach for upscaling climate services","authors":"Christopher R. Goddard , Galina Guentchev , Erika J. Palin , Mark Harrison , Jason A. Lowe , Tyrone Dunbar , Elizabeth Fuller , Chris Counsell , John Dora , Tim Reeder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Upscaling is the process of moving beyond pilots or prototypes to repeatable and/or transferable services that are accessible and useful to stakeholders and users. It may also refer to increasing the provision, reach, or impact of an existing service. Upscaling any service or product is a complex process, which – in the case of climate services – is exacerbated by serving an emerging market, and many projects taking place in academic settings with short term funding cycles. Climate service providers, their delivery partners and funders could benefit from increased reach and impact by explicitly considering how their services can scale and what the enablers and barriers to this may be. This could take the form of reviewing academic literature, applying structured frameworks, or learning from best practice examples.</div><div>Here, we describe the process of creating, testing, and refining an upscaling approach for climate services. The resulting approach is presented, alongside case studies that helped update it and provide evidence for its usefulness and useability. This detailed study of upscaling climate services sets the foundation for effective and sustainable provision of climate services beyond pilots and prototypes and further development of upscaling frameworks and tools to this end.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100577"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144169426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559
Buddhi R. Chaudhary , Greg Acciaioli , William Erskine , Luni Piya , Niraj Prakash Joshi
Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.
{"title":"Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal","authors":"Buddhi R. Chaudhary , Greg Acciaioli , William Erskine , Luni Piya , Niraj Prakash Joshi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100559"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143725931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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