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Factors influencing the access and utilization of climate information by farmers from different climate vulnerable districts of Northern Region, Ghana 加纳北部不同气候脆弱地区农民获取和利用气候信息的影响因素
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100557
Iddisah Alhassan , Philip Antwi-Agyei , William Adzawla , Mihaela Sima
To execute effective climate initiatives at all social levels, it is critical to understand the perspectives of various climate-vulnerability groups’ utilization of climate information. However, limited empirical research has been conducted on the perspectives and adaptation methods of climate-vulnerable farmers in Ghana’s Northern Region. This study offered an understanding of the enabling factors that promote the utilization intensity of climate information among farmers from three climate-vulnerability groups. The study employs quantitative and qualitative methods and data collected through face-to-face interview questionnaires from 384 farmer households, five key informants and five focus group discussions among forty-two participants within 6 climatic vulnerable districts. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the types of information accessed and utilized and the enabling factors for its utilization. A double-hurdle regression model was employed to model climate-vulnerable districts’ probability utilization of climate information and intensity. The results show that television programs were the major source of climate information among most farmers in the highly climate-vulnerable groups, whereas it was radio among farmers in the moderately and less climate-vulnerable groups. The moderately climate-vulnerable groups not only have a low probability of utilizing climate information, but they will utilize less of it if they intend to do so, whereas highly climate-vulnerable districts have a lower probability of utilizing but will use more of it if they intend to. Access to climate information through extension services was low among all vulnerable groups. However, farmers who accessed extension services have a high probability of utilizing the information and utilize it more.
为了在所有社会层面执行有效的气候倡议,了解不同气候脆弱性群体对气候信息利用的观点至关重要。然而,关于加纳北部地区气候脆弱农民的观点和适应方法的实证研究有限。本研究揭示了三个气候脆弱性群体农户对气候信息利用强度的促进因素。本研究采用定量和定性相结合的方法,通过对6个气候脆弱地区的384户农户、5名关键举证者的面对面访谈问卷和5次对42名参与者的焦点小组讨论收集数据。使用描述性统计分析访问和利用的信息类型及其利用的使能因素。采用双栏回归模型对气候脆弱区对气候信息的利用概率和强度进行了建模。结果表明,在气候高度脆弱群体中,电视节目是大多数农民获取气候信息的主要来源,而在中等和较低气候脆弱群体中,广播节目是获取气候信息的主要来源。中等气候脆弱区不仅利用气候信息的概率较低,而且如果他们打算利用气候信息,他们会利用得较少;而高度气候脆弱区利用气候信息的概率较低,但如果他们打算利用气候信息,他们会利用得更多。所有弱势群体通过推广服务获取气候信息的机会都很低。然而,获得推广服务的农民更有可能利用这些信息,并且利用得更多。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonal drought predictions in the Mediterranean using the SPEI index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in climate services 利用SPEI指数进行地中海季节性干旱预测:为其在气候服务中的业务适用性铺平道路
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100555
Swen Brands , Maialen Iturbide , Jaime Díez González-Pardo , Sixto Herrera , Joaquín Bedia , Rodrigo Manzanas , Esteban Rodríguez-Guisado , Santiago Beguería , Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano , José Manuel Gutiérrez
We evaluate different methodological choices for seasonal drought prediction over the Mediterranean region with the multi-dimensional Standardised Evapotranspiration Precipitation Index accumulated over a 3-month time-scale (SPEI-3), based on the ECMWF SEAS5.1 operational prediction system. We analyse two strategies for constructing the index backfilling data prior to model initialization, using real-time quasi-observations from the ERA5 reanalysis (SPEI-3-R), or model data from previous initializations of the same prediction system (SPEI-3-M), and show that model skill is sensitive to these methodological choices. The long 42-year hindcast/prediction record available for this model (1981–2022) allows for a robust skill assessment. A window of significant skill, extending from May to October, is detected over the Iberian Peninsula. This window arises from the cumulative and multivariate nature of the index and cannot entirely be explained by the individual skill of the components, nor by the warming trend during the validation period. Based on these results, seasonal drought predictions relying on the SPEI are currently being enabled in the framework of a new generation of climate services developed in Spain. These go beyond alternative applications available to-date, which usually rely on simpler indices and/or shorter model verification periods.
基于ECMWF SEAS5.1业务预报系统,利用3个月时间尺度的多维标准化蒸散发降水指数(SPEI-3)对地中海地区季节性干旱预测的不同方法选择进行了评价。我们分析了在模型初始化之前构建索引回填数据的两种策略,即使用ERA5再分析的实时准观测数据(SPEI-3-R),或使用同一预测系统先前初始化的模型数据(SPEI-3-M),并表明模型技能对这些方法选择很敏感。该模型可获得的长达42年的预测记录(1981-2022)允许进行可靠的技能评估。从5月到10月,在伊比利亚半岛上空发现了一个重要的技能窗口。这个窗口期产生于指数的累积和多元性质,不能完全用各成分的个别技能来解释,也不能用验证期内的变暖趋势来解释。基于这些结果,基于SPEI的季节性干旱预测目前正在西班牙开发的新一代气候服务的框架内实现。这些超越了目前可用的替代应用程序,后者通常依赖于更简单的索引和/或更短的模型验证周期。
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引用次数: 0
Role of risk perception and climate change beliefs in adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices in Saudi Arabia 风险认知和气候变化信念在沙特阿拉伯采用气候适应型农业实践中的作用
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100552
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Azhar Abbas , Muhammad Imran Azeem , Pomi Shahbaz , Shamsheer ul Haq , Roshan K. Nayak
The agricultural sector of Saudi Arabia is particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change due to its prevailing climate and limited water resources. Without the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices, farmers may suffer enormous losses. A field survey was conducted in the Madinah region with the aim of analysing the status and factors affecting the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices by farmers as well as their perspective about barriers to adaptation in the country. Data were collected with the help of face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire from 123 randomly selected farmers. Data were analysed using an ordered probit model. The findings reveal that approximately 50% of the crop and livestock producers have moderately adopted to climate change risks. Major factors that affect farmers’ adoption decisions include farmers’ age, education, farm size, farming type (except for livestock herders), extension linkages for crop farmers, availability of veterinary services for livestock farmers, moderate to high level of risk perception and climate change beliefs. A need for increased awareness about climate change vagaries, streamlining extension and veterinary services and promoting technical interventions such as drought- and disease-resistant crop varieties is warranted.
沙特阿拉伯的农业部门由于其普遍的气候和有限的水资源,特别容易受到气候变化的不利影响。如果不采用可持续的农业做法,农民可能遭受巨大损失。在麦地那地区进行了实地调查,目的是分析影响农民采用可持续农业做法的现状和因素,以及他们对该国适应障碍的看法。数据收集采用面对面访谈的方式,采用结构化问卷,随机抽取123名农民。数据分析使用有序概率模型。调查结果显示,大约50%的作物和牲畜生产者对气候变化风险采取了适度的应对措施。影响农民收养决定的主要因素包括农民的年龄、受教育程度、农场规模、耕作类型(畜牧牧民除外)、作物农民的推广联系、畜牧农民能否获得兽医服务、中等至高度的风险认知和气候变化信念。有必要提高对气候变化变幻莫测的认识,精简推广和兽医服务,促进技术干预措施,如抗旱和抗病作物品种。
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引用次数: 0
Himawari-8 satellite detection of morning terrain fog in a subtropical region Himawari-8卫星对亚热带地区早晨地形雾的探测
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100551
Huiyun Ma , Changjuan Chen , Zhicong Yi , Huihui Feng , Xiaojing Wu
This study explores the construction of a subtropical morning terrain fog detection algorithm for Himawari-8 data. Specifically, the clear sky surface suppression index is constructed to preliminarily remove the clear sky surface by combining Farneback optical flow method. The residual clear sky surface is further removed based on time series brightness temperature difference (BTD) between mid-infrared and thermal infrared. After that, the low-cloud elimination indicator is proposed to remove low clouds and mid-high clouds by coupling the brightness temperatures (BTs) at 10.4 μm with 12.3 μm, 13.3 μm and 8.6 μm with 9.6 μm. Finally, the fast-moving low clouds and residual mid-high clouds are removed by using the ratio of adjacent images at the 9.6 μm BT and the BT at 11.2 μm. The algorithm validation results show that the probability of detection, the false alarm rate and the critical success index are 0.801, 0.099 and 0.747, which show the acceptable performance. Meanwhile, the algorithm effectively avoids the influence of solar zenith angle. The research is capable of attaining near-real-time fog detection and offers pivotal technical support across diverse domains, including transportation planning, environmental management, human health, and agricultural production.
本研究探讨了基于Himawari-8数据的亚热带清晨地形雾检测算法的构建。具体而言,结合Farneback光流法构建晴空面抑制指数,初步去除晴空面。基于中红外和热红外时间序列亮度温度差(BTD)进一步去除剩余晴空面。在此基础上,提出了10.4 μm与12.3 μm、13.3 μm、8.6 μm与9.6 μm的亮度温度耦合去除低云和中高云的低云消除指标。最后,利用9.6 μm BT和11.2 μm BT的相邻图像之比去除快速移动的低云和残留的中高云。算法验证结果表明,检测概率、虚警率和临界成功指数分别为0.801、0.099和0.747,性能可接受。同时,该算法有效地避免了太阳天顶角的影响。该研究能够实现近实时的雾检测,并在多个领域提供关键的技术支持,包括交通规划、环境管理、人类健康和农业生产。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling the determinants of climate change adaptation among small Landholders: Insights from a Mountainous Region in Pakistan 揭示小土地所有者适应气候变化的决定因素:来自巴基斯坦山区的见解
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100550
Iftikhar Ali , Ashfaq Ahmad Shah , Bader Alhafi Alotaibi , Chong Xu , Amjad Ali , Yousuf Ali
Small landholders in Pakistan’s high mountainous regions face significant challenges in adapting to the impacts of climate change. This study investigates the adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers to address these challenges and identifies the household-level factors influencing these strategies in Nagar Valley. Using a quantitative approach, data were collected through a structured survey involving 430 households. Data are analyzed using bivariate and probit regression models. The study reveals that smallholder farmers adopt various strategies to cope with climate change, including using chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and insecticides, practicing crop rotation, and transitioning to horticulture. The findings of the multivariate probit model demonstrate a significant association between age, gender, education, and the likelihood of adopting adaptation strategies. The study advocates for developing context-specific climate adaptation strategies tailored to these regions’ unique agroecological zones to enhance small landholders’ resilience against climate change impacts. It also emphasizes the need to raise awareness among smallholders about modern, climate-smart agricultural practices and adaptive strategies.
巴基斯坦高山区的小土地所有者在适应气候变化的影响方面面临着重大挑战。本研究调查了纳加尔河谷小农为应对这些挑战所采取的适应策略,并确定了影响这些策略的家庭层面因素。采用定量方法,通过涉及430户家庭的结构化调查收集数据。数据分析使用双变量和概率回归模型。研究表明,小农采取了各种策略来应对气候变化,包括使用化肥、农药和杀虫剂、实行轮作和向园艺过渡。多变量概率模型的结果表明,年龄、性别、教育程度和采取适应策略的可能性之间存在显著关联。该研究倡导针对这些地区独特的农业生态区制定因地制宜的气候适应战略,以增强小土地所有者对气候变化影响的抵御能力。报告还强调需要提高小农对现代气候智能型农业实践和适应性战略的认识。
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引用次数: 0
Developing and testing an evaluation framework for climate services for adaptation 制定和测试气候适应服务评估框架
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549
Eva Boon , Nellie Sofie Body , Robbert Biesbroek
Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.
Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.

Practical implications

Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. Supplementary file 2 provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.
气候服务日益得到发展,并被用于规划气候变化适应,但它们的成功却没有得到充分评价。一个主要原因是缺乏支持气候服务研究人员和实践者进行评估的业务框架。本研究通过开发和测试一个健全和系统的评估框架,分三步解决了这一差距。首先,我们通过实施商定的评估气候服务成功与否的标准,设计了一个框架。其次,在两个气候服务案例中对该框架进行了测试。第三,气候服务研究人员和从业人员(包括参与案例的人员)对框架的可用性、可信度和透明度进行了评估。我们的发现表明,开发的框架提供了一种标准化的评估方法,提供了指示器、量度和指导,使评估者能够为每个标准提供定量的评级。然而,由于在开发过程中与目标用户的互动有限,以及从一开始就缺乏明确的目标,这两种情况下的评级稳健性都受到了影响。这妨碍了纳入具有代表性的用户群体的看法和衡量影响。总体而言,研究人员和实践者认为该框架可用于各种应用程序,包括将其用作设计标准,以促进学习,指导开发,并支持监控和评估。虽然普遍认为该框架是可信和透明的,但它将受益于进一步测试和编制成实际材料。该研究强调,在发展气候服务的早期就考虑到评估标准时,评估工作做得最好。气候服务被视为支持和加速适应行动的重要手段。虽然对气候服务开发和利用的投资正在增加,但对它们的评估通常不足。原因之一是缺乏健全的评价框架。本研究旨在建立一个健全和系统的评估框架,可以在科学和实践环境中使用。该框架在两个已实施的气候服务案例中进行了测试,并由气候服务用户、从业人员、研究人员以及评估人员自己进行了评估。补充文件2提供了框架,以及描述应用框架的重要过程步骤的附带协议。它还通过指导性问题和清单,就如何在气候服务发展阶段考虑成功标准提供指导。在这里,我们通过(1)概述框架的基本原则,总结(2)测试和(3)评估最具实际相关性的框架的结果,以及(4)强调改进评估实践的建议来提出本研究的实际意义。1)框架的基本原则是:•它可用于不同类型的评估(例如总结性,形成性,发展性),并适用于广泛的可能的气候服务。•它基于德尔菲研究中选择的12个成功标准,专家评估了哪些因素与定义适应气候服务的成功最相关(Boon等人,2024)。如果认为某一特定气候服务或环境有必要,可以添加标准。•它提供了总共20个指标,并提供了支持指标和衡量标准的方向。指标的选择基于文献综述,考虑最稳健的测量方法,同时处理时间和预算限制。•每个标准的评估范围从1:不成功到5:成功,便于在气候服务和监测之间进行长期比较。评级的稳健性是通过考虑样本的代表性和证据通过多个来源验证的程度来评估的。2)在两个案例中测试框架表明:•框架可用于一致地评估标准,并有明确的度量指标和测量说明支持。•在评估那些需要明确定义目标用户和目标的指标以及通过用户感知来衡量的指标方面出现了挑战。在这两种情况下,用户和目标只是笼统地描述,这使得很难,有时甚至不可能衡量这些指标的结果。此外,由于难以访问具有代表性的目标用户群,许多评级的稳健性受到损害。•评估结果,包括确定的学习,得到相关利益相关者的认可和赞赏。 3)气候服务用户、从业者和研究人员对评估框架的评估表明:•该框架被认为可用于各种应用,例如将其纳入招标范围、开发商业模式、将其用作设计标准、指导开发过程、支持监测和评估,以及促进了解哪些有效,哪些无效。•它被认为是可信和透明的,尽管它需要在不同类型的服务和情况下进一步测试,并且可能需要进一步编制易于使用的评价材料。4)改进评估实践的建议:•该研究再次强调,在气候服务发展过程的早期整合良好的评估是最好的。这种方法不仅允许有效的数据收集,而且通过明确定义气候服务的用户和目标以及建立用户交互渠道,有助于建立更可靠的评级。这可能会导致更成功的服务。•为了促进对框架的吸收和培养一种评估文化,我们看到了两条有希望的途径:1)促进成功标准的使用,将其作为指导和构建气候服务发展过程的有用工具。提高对这些标准的认识可为更有系统地评价这些服务铺平道路;2)促进评估的必要性,例如,能够减轻误导或无效的服务。这可以通过委托方通过设计或报告要求强制使用和评估成功标准来完成。
{"title":"Developing and testing an evaluation framework for climate services for adaptation","authors":"Eva Boon ,&nbsp;Nellie Sofie Body ,&nbsp;Robbert Biesbroek","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100549","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are increasingly developed and used to plan for climate change adaptation, but their success is poorly evaluated. A main reason is that an operational framework to support climate service researchers and practitioners pursuing evaluation is lacking. This study addresses this gap by developing and testing a robust and systematic evaluation framework in three steps. First, we designed a framework by operationalising agreed upon criteria for assessing climate service success. Second, the framework was tested in two climate service cases. Third, the usability, credibility, and transparency of the framework was assessed by climate service researchers and practitioners, including those engaged in the cases.</div><div>Our findings show that developed framework offers a standardized approach to evaluation, providing indicators, metrics, and guidance that enable the evaluator to provide a quantitative rating for each criterion. However, the robustness of ratings in the two cases was compromised due to limited interaction with targeted users during the development process and lack a of clear goals set from the beginning. This hampered incorporating the perception of a representative group of users and measuring impacts. Overall, the framework was considered usable by researchers and practitioners for various applications, including using it as design criteria, to facilitate learning, to guide development, and to support monitoring and evaluation. While generally perceived as credible and transparent, the framework would benefit from further testing and elaboration into practical materials. The study highlights that evaluation is done best when evaluation criteria are considered early in the development of the climate service.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate services are seen as important means to support and accelerate adaptation action. While investments in climate service development and use are increasing, their evaluation typically falls short. One reason for this is the lack of a sound evaluation framework. This study aimed to develop a robust and systematic evaluation framework that can be used in both science and practice settings. The framework was tested in two implemented climate service cases, and evaluated by climate service users, practitioners, and researchers, as well as by the evaluators themselves. <span><span>Supplementary file 2</span></span> provides the framework, and an accompanying protocol describing important process steps to apply it. It also offers guidance on how to consider the success criteria during the development stages of a climate service, through guiding questions and a checklist. Here we present the practical implications of this study by (1) outlining the basic principles of the framework, summarizing the results of (2) testing and (3) evaluating the framework that have most practical relevance, and (4) highlighting suggestions for improving evaluation practice.</d","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100549"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Observed climate trends and farmers’ adaptation strategies in Dendi District, West Shewa Zone, Ethiopia 在埃塞俄比亚西谢瓦区Dendi区观测到的气候趋势和农民适应策略
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100548
Busha Getachew , Gonfa Kewessa , Worku Hailu , Gezahegn Girma
Climate change has adversely affected the livelihoods of people in developing countries where a large proportion of the population is heavily dependent on agriculture. Indigenous people need to perceive that the climate is changing or likely could change, and they need to pay sufficient attention to this perception to take action. Understanding farmers’ perceptions about climate change and adaptation strategies can help support their efforts and develop interventions more suited to the local context. Hence, this study aimed to elucidate how farmers perceive climate change in their locality and how they adapt to observed changes in the Dendi district, West Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to gather information on farmers’ perceptions of climate change, observed threats, and adaptation practices to observed changes from 144 sample farmers. Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted to gather more insights into trends in climate change, threats, and adaptation practices in the area. Additionally, climate data of the district from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed to assess trends in temperature and rainfall in the study area. The findings of the study revealed an increasing trend in maximum temperatures in the study area, while the mean minimum temperatures slightly decreased. Rainfall trends have significantly decreased over the past three decades, with seasonal rainfall also declining. The majority of the respondents replied that they perceived an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall. Specifically, 79.2% of the respondents perceived rising temperatures, while 16.7% perceived a decrease in temperature. Additionally, 77.1% of respondents replied that there was a decrease in both the amount and distribution of rainfall. The socio-economic analysis reveals that weather events in the study area vary in frequency across agroecologies. The major events identified include prolonged droughts with late-onset or early offset of rains (84.5%), floods/excessive moisture (71.6%), crop disease (70.8%), and erosion (56.9%). As rain-fed crop production relies on the timely and normal distribution of rainfall, these events significantly disrupt agricultural operations, particularly in mid-altitude and lowland areas. The impacts, sometimes, include total crop loss, reduced yields, smaller seeding areas, delayed planting and maturity, and increased crop pests. Respondents reported various climate change adaptation practices, including adjusting cropping calendars, changing crop types, diversifying livelihoods, and adopting improved crop varieties and irrigation. However, the effectiveness of these practices was limited by resource and skill constraints. To enhance resilience, it is crucial to provide reliable climate information, offer training on climate-smart agriculture, ensure access to updated climate data, and promote improved irrigation methods.
气候变化对发展中国家人民的生计产生了不利影响,因为发展中国家很大一部分人口严重依赖农业。土著人民需要认识到气候正在发生变化或可能发生变化,他们需要对这种认识给予足够的重视,以便采取行动。了解农民对气候变化和适应战略的看法有助于支持他们的努力,并制定更适合当地情况的干预措施。因此,本研究旨在阐明农民如何感知其所在地区的气候变化,以及他们如何适应在埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚州西谢瓦区Dendi区观察到的变化。进行了半结构化访谈,以收集来自144个样本农民的关于农民对气候变化的看法、观察到的威胁以及对观察到的变化的适应做法的信息。还进行了主要信息提供者访谈和焦点小组讨论,以收集有关该地区气候变化趋势、威胁和适应实践的更多见解。此外,分析了1990 - 2021年的气候数据,以评估研究区温度和降雨的趋势。研究结果表明,研究区最高气温呈上升趋势,而平均最低气温略有下降。在过去的30年里,降雨趋势显著减少,季节性降雨也在减少。大多数受访者回答说,他们感觉到气温上升,降雨量减少。具体来说,79.2%的受访者认为气温会上升,16.7%的受访者认为气温会下降。此外,77.1%的回答者认为雨量和分布均有所减少。社会经济分析表明,研究区域的天气事件在不同的农业生态系统中频率不同。确定的主要事件包括降雨迟发或提前抵消的长期干旱(84.5%)、洪水/过度潮湿(71.6%)、作物病害(70.8%)和侵蚀(56.9%)。由于雨养作物的生产依赖于降雨的及时和正常分布,这些事件严重扰乱了农业生产,特别是在中海拔和低地地区。其影响有时包括作物全部损失、产量下降、播种面积缩小、播种和成熟延迟以及作物害虫增加。受访者报告了各种适应气候变化的做法,包括调整种植日历、改变作物类型、使生计多样化以及采用改良作物品种和灌溉。然而,这些实践的有效性受到资源和技能限制的限制。为增强抵御能力,提供可靠的气候信息、提供气候智慧型农业培训、确保获得最新气候数据以及推广改进的灌溉方法至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Rainfall forecasts, learning subsidies and conservation agriculture adoption: Experimental evidence from Zambia 降雨预报、学习补贴和保护性农业采用:来自赞比亚的实验证据
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100547
Hambulo Ngoma , Esau Simutowe , João Vasco Silva , Isaiah Nyagumbo , Kelvin Kalala , Mukwemba Habeenzu , Christian Thierfelder
Adapting smallholder rainfed farming systems to climate change requires adoption of technologies that build resilience to climate shocks. One such technology is conservation agriculture, yet its adoption by smallholders in Southern Africa is not widespread. We use incentivized economic field experiments in Zambia to test, ex-ante, whether providing rainfall forecasts and a time-bound learning subsidy can help increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. We found that providing rainfall forecasts predicting low rainfall significantly increased the probability of adopting conservation agriculture by 8 percentage points, while offering a subsidy increased the chances of adoption by 11 percentage points. Bundling rainfall forecasts and subsidies did not significantly influence adoption, perhaps because these were not complementary. Having experienced normal rainfall in the previous experiment round (cropping season) was associated with 6 percentage points higher odds of adopting conservation agriculture, while past exposure to low rainfall significantly reduced the probability of adoption by 6 percentage points. These results suggest that farmers do not expect two subsequent seasons to be the same given the increase in rainfall variability in the region. Other important drivers of adoption are hosting demonstration plots and education level of the participant. These findings provide evidence that providing rainfall forecasts and time-bound learning subsidies may be effective ways to enhance the adoption of conservation agriculture in Zambia and imply a need to reframe conservation agriculture as means to address low and erratic rainfall. Future research can evaluate the persistence of such effects using randomized controlled trials.
使小农雨养农业系统适应气候变化,需要采用能够增强抵御气候冲击能力的技术。保护性农业就是这样一种技术,但在非洲南部的小农中,这种技术的采用并不普遍。我们在赞比亚进行了激励经济实地实验,预先测试提供降雨预报和有时限的学习补贴是否有助于提高保护性农业的采用。我们发现,提供降雨预报,预测低降雨量,可使采用保护性农业的可能性显著提高8个百分点,而提供补贴则可使采用保护性农业的可能性提高11个百分点。捆绑的降雨预报和补贴并没有显著影响采用率,也许是因为它们不是互补的。在前一轮试验(种植季节)中经历过正常降雨的人采用保护性农业的几率会高出6个百分点,而过去经历过低降雨的人采用保护性农业的几率会大大降低6个百分点。这些结果表明,考虑到该地区降雨变异性的增加,农民并不期望接下来的两个季节是相同的。其他重要的采用驱动因素是举办示范情节和参与者的教育水平。这些发现提供的证据表明,提供降雨预报和有时限的学习补贴可能是提高赞比亚采用保护性农业的有效途径,这意味着需要将保护性农业重新定义为解决低降雨量和不稳定降雨量的手段。未来的研究可以通过随机对照试验来评估这种效果的持久性。
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引用次数: 0
Farmers’ climate change perception, impacts and adaptation strategies in response to drought in the Northwest area of Bangladesh 孟加拉国西北地区农民对气候变化的认识、影响和应对干旱的适应战略
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100540
J.M. Adeeb Salman Chowdhury , Md. Abdul Khalek , Md. Kamruzzaman
This study seeks to explore the farmers’ climate change perceptions, impacts, and underlying factors that influenced the choice of adaptation strategies in the drought-prone northwest region of Bangladesh. Primary data was collected from 375 sample households from four drought-prone districts (i.e., Rajshahi, Chapainawabganj, Naogaon, and Dinajpur). The factors influencing the farmers’ adaptation practices were determined using a multinomial logistic model (MNL). During survey, farmers’ perceptions about climate change were identical to the meteorological trends of the last 60 years (1960–2022) except for Dinajpur station. In the study period drought were mainly affects increased cost of production, declining ground water levels, crop failures and scarcity of soil water, lower income, food scarcity etc. The MNL results showed that age, education, income, family size, farming experience, access to climate, farmer-to-farmer extension, social mobility, and loan subsidies directly influenced adaptation decisions. The most significant adaptation strategies adopted by the farmers were irrigation facilities, agronomic management, drought-tolerant rice varieties, adopting new technologies, and alternative enterprises of land use change. To protect farmers from natural disasters, especially drought, sustainable water management plan, credit support from government, less water consuming crops, new crop varieties and re-excavation of traditional ponds must be implemented in the study area.

Practical Implications

The goal of this research is to provide a comprehensive analysis of adaptation to climate change, especially drought, and its implications in the Northwest region of Bangladesh. The country experiences various types of natural disasters, which means that the government and citizens have a long history of developing a significant track record of preparedness, adaptation, and recovery in response to such occurrences. It is well known that the prospect and occurrence of such catastrophes is a significant impediment to progress and the improvement of human welfare.
The frequency and the severity of extreme weather events due to climate change in South East Asia including Bangladesh is anticipated to intensify in the forthcoming years. In recent years, decreasing rainfall and increasing temperature have serious impact on agricultural sector specially the northwest area of Bangladesh, with rural farmers heavily affected since they depend largely on rainfall for their livelihood. According to national adaptation plan of Bangladesh (NAP), the whole area of the country is susceptible to the detrimental effects of climate change. However, the northwest region is particularly vulnerable to drought because of geoclimatic and man-made factors. Drought in this area are not only experienced through high rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature, but also shortage of groundwater, lack of canal
本研究旨在探讨孟加拉国西北干旱易发地区农民对气候变化的认知、影响和影响适应策略选择的潜在因素。主要数据收集自四个干旱易发地区(即拉杰沙希、查派纳瓦甘、Naogaon和Dinajpur)的375个样本家庭。采用多项logistic模型(MNL)确定影响农民适应行为的因素。在调查期间,除了Dinajpur站外,农民对气候变化的看法与过去60年(1960-2022)的气象趋势相同。在研究期内,干旱主要影响生产成本增加、地下水位下降、作物歉收和土壤缺水、收入减少、粮食短缺等。MNL的研究结果表明,年龄、教育程度、收入、家庭规模、农业经验、气候获取、农民之间的推广、社会流动性和贷款补贴直接影响了适应决策。农民采取的最重要的适应策略是灌溉设施、农艺管理、耐旱水稻品种、采用新技术和土地利用变化的替代企业。为保护农民免受自然灾害特别是干旱的影响,研究区必须实施可持续的水资源管理计划、政府信贷支持、节水作物、作物新品种和传统池塘的重新挖掘。实际意义本研究的目的是全面分析孟加拉国西北地区对气候变化,特别是干旱的适应及其影响。这个国家经历了各种类型的自然灾害,这意味着政府和公民在应对此类事件的准备、适应和恢复方面有着悠久的历史。众所周知,这种灾难的前景和发生是进步和改善人类福利的重大障碍。由于气候变化,包括孟加拉国在内的东南亚地区极端天气事件的频率和严重程度预计将在未来几年加剧。近年来,降雨量减少和气温升高严重影响了农业部门,特别是孟加拉国西北部地区,农村农民受到严重影响,因为他们主要依靠降雨为生。根据孟加拉国国家适应计划(NAP),该国整个地区都容易受到气候变化的不利影响。然而,由于地理气候和人为因素的影响,西北地区尤其容易受到干旱的影响。该地区的干旱不仅表现为高降雨变率和高温,地下水短缺、缺乏运河和河流的拖曳、人口密度高、森林砍伐等因素也加速了该地区干旱的严重程度(Habiba et al., 2012)。在一个容易发生干旱的地区,水资源短缺正成为一个严重的问题,因为有限的降雨和过度抽取地下水用于灌溉可能对环境和气候变化产生不利影响。在我国,适应干旱在应对干旱中的作用没有得到很好的组织,但它是农业和经济增长的一个至关重要的问题。很少有研究关注农民对气候变化的看法和认知,以及他们对特定农业生产的适应策略。本研究主要考察了主要气候变量及其变化趋势、农民对气候变化和干旱的认知、适应策略以及影响策略选择的因素。所需数据是从孟加拉国西北部干旱易发地区的4个县(Rajshahi、Noagaon、Dinajpur和Chapainawabganj)的375个农户中收集的。我们的研究结果表明,大约95.6%的农民声称气候在过去30年里发生了巨大变化。旱季延长、降水少、气温升高、暖日数增加、阴雨日数减少、人为原因等降水和温度扰动的变化。在本研究中,我们使用5点李克特量表,清晰地描述了农民对干旱的感知。在研究期间,Rajshahi站的降雨量呈减少趋势,而Dinajpur站的降雨量呈增加趋势,但温度则相反(反之亦然)。干旱主要影响各种与农业有关的问题和生产,如生产成本增加、地下水位下降、作物歉收、土壤缺水、收入减少、粮食短缺、健康影响、营养不良、牲畜损失、水质恶化和失业。 农民主要提出用加权平均指数对这些影响进行排序,以找出干旱的主要影响。在研究区,我们观察到农民使用各种类型的土著和传统耕作方法,如耐旱水稻品种,农艺管理,重新挖掘传统池塘,增加地表水量,雨水收集,灌溉设施,作物集约化,土地利用变化的替代进入奖励,作物轮作和改变种植日期,额外的创收活动,采用新技术等。MNL的研究结果表明,年龄、教育程度、收入、家庭规模、农业经验、获得气候、农民与农民之间的推广、社会流动性和贷款补贴直接影响农民实施的最重要的适应战略。本研究通过考察农民对干旱及其后果和潜在应对机制的认知和认识,努力在评估气候变化影响和适应措施时优先考虑弱势群体的观点。更好地了解农民对气候变化和变率的看法、现有的适应措施以及影响这些措施的因素,对于实施更好的政策以促进农业产业未来的适应非常重要(Nhemachena和Hassan, 2007年)。为了确保区域粮食安全,这项研究可以开启与各种利益攸关方(如小农和自耕农)相关的影响和适应战略的讨论,并有助于减轻干旱对农业生产的不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
How to disseminate the research results on climate change impacts in cities to guide adaptation public policies ? Application to the Paris region (France) 如何在城市传播气候变化影响的研究成果,以指导适应公共政策?申请巴黎地区(法国)
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100545
Julie André , Benjamin Le Roy , Aude Lemonsu , Morgane Colombert , Valéry Masson
The construction of efficient climate services relies on the interaction between decision-makers and scientists. Urban heat island is an issue that already preoccupies public authorities and is likely to be exacerbated by climate change, making assessment of its evolution crucial for effective urban policymaking and to size adaptation measures. This study analyzed interviews with 13 public stakeholders in the Paris area (France), highlighting their diverse needs for urban climate data. Their feedback on the high-resolution climate projections for the Paris region was assessed to provide recommendations to researchers for the effective dissemination of urban climate data. Public stakeholders in the Paris area need urban climate data for various purposes (awareness, diagnosis, decision support, and evaluation) and thus seek diverse types and formats of information. High-resolution climate projections may meet parts of these needs, but two key points require attention: (i) climate models appear to be difficult to apprehend by public stakeholders, thus an effort of pedagogy is necessary, (ii) climate projections often extend to 2100, but stakeholders primarily need short- to medium-term forecasts that align with public policy timelines. Indicators on extreme impacts and risks are a strong demand of public actors, especially in the health and energy sectors. Additionally, since recent urban climate resources remain largely unseen by public actors, we recommend enhancing its dissemination through local institutes recognized by policymakers, such as urban planning agencies. In summary, this case study provided valuable insights into the key mechanisms required for effectively disseminating climate research to promote climate change adaptation.
构建高效的气候服务有赖于决策者与科学家之间的互动。城市热岛是一个已经困扰公共当局的问题,并有可能因气候变化而加剧,因此对其演变的评估对于有效的城市决策和适应措施的规模至关重要。本研究分析了对巴黎地区(法国)13 个公共利益相关者的访谈,强调了他们对城市气候数据的不同需求。通过评估他们对巴黎地区高分辨率气候预测的反馈意见,为研究人员有效传播城市气候数据提供建议。巴黎地区的公众利益相关者需要城市气候数据用于各种目的(认知、诊断、决策支持和评估),因此寻求不同类型和格式的信息。高分辨率气候预测可以满足部分需求,但有两个关键点需要注意:(i) 气候模型似乎难以被公众利益相关者理解,因此有必要开展教学工作,(ii) 气候预测通常会延伸到 2100 年,但利益相关者主要需要与公共政策时间表一致的中短期预测。极端影响和风险指标是公共参与者的强烈需求,特别是在卫生和能源部门。此外,由于近期的城市气候资源在很大程度上仍未被公共参与者所了解,我们建议通过政策制定者认可的地方机构(如城市规划机构)加强传播。总之,本案例研究为有效传播气候研究成果以促进气候变化适应所需的关键机制提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Climate Services
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