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Spatio-temporal dynamics of urban heat island using Google Earth Engine: Assessment and prediction—A case study of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal 基于谷歌地球引擎的城市热岛时空动态评价与预测——以尼泊尔加德满都谷地为例
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100560
Bishal Khatri, Bipin Kharel, Pragati Dhakal, Samrat Acharya, Ujjwol Thapa
This study examines UHI dynamics and impacts in the rapidly urbanizing Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using remote sensing and predictive modeling. The primary goals are to evaluate UHI trends and explore how urbanization influences temperature and climate change. To achieve these objectives, the research investigates the relationship between spectral characteristics, Land Use Land Cover (LULC), and UHI, utilizing high-resolution data from MODIS and Landsat satellites to analyze land surface temperature (LST) and land use changes over recent decades. The study employs Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) modeling to predict future UHI dynamics, taking into account climatic variability, land use changes, and population growth. Findings reveal significant increases in LST and UHI intensity due to the expansion of impermeable surfaces and loss of vegetative cover. Predictions for 2030 indicate higher LSTs, with winter temperatures ranging from 9.34 °C to 30.12 °C and summer temperatures from 19.74 °C to 42.32 °C, showing an increase compared to 2020. Additionally, the UHI effect is predicted to intensify due to expanding built-up areas, with greater seasonal variation observed in summer. The results suggest that without effective mitigation, UHI will continue to worsen, exacerbating climate-related issues. Insights into the relationship between spectral parameters, LULC, and UHI can guide strategies to mitigate UHI effects, promote sustainable urban growth, and improve urban resilience. Integrating remote sensing technologies with predictive modeling is crucial for addressing urbanization and climate change challenges.
本研究利用遥感和预测模型研究了快速城市化的尼泊尔加德满都谷地的热岛动态及其影响。主要目标是评估城市热岛的趋势,并探索城市化如何影响温度和气候变化。为了实现这些目标,本研究利用MODIS和Landsat卫星的高分辨率数据分析近几十年来地表温度(LST)和土地利用变化,研究了光谱特征、土地利用、土地覆盖(LULC)和城市热岛指数之间的关系。该研究采用元胞自动机-马尔可夫(CA-Markov)模型来预测未来的热岛热岛动态,同时考虑到气候变化、土地利用变化和人口增长。研究结果表明,由于不透水表面的扩大和植被覆盖的丧失,地表温度和热岛热强度显著增加。对2030年的预测表明地表温度更高,冬季气温在9.34°C至30.12°C之间,夏季气温在19.74°C至42.32°C之间,与2020年相比有所增加。此外,由于建成区的扩大,预计热岛效应将加剧,夏季观测到的季节变化更大。结果表明,如果没有有效的缓解措施,热岛问题将继续恶化,从而加剧与气候有关的问题。深入了解光谱参数、土地利用成本和城市热岛指数之间的关系,可以指导缓解城市热岛指数影响、促进城市可持续增长和提高城市韧性的策略。将遥感技术与预测建模相结合对于应对城市化和气候变化挑战至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Towards CS4L&D: Advancing climate services for loss and damage 迈向CS4L&D:推进针对损失和损害的气候服务
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100563
Murray Scown , Haomiao Du , Guy Jackson , Salvatore Paolo De Rosa , Emily Boyd
Losses and damages from climate change are not just a future risk but already a present reality, and “Loss and Damage” (L&D) as a policy domain has been formalised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), alongside mitigation and adaptation. While climate services currently provide strong support for adaptation and disaster recovery, here we propose that an expanded set of climate services for L&D (CS4L&D) should be developed to help address climate justice implications of realised losses and damages. CS4L&D could pragmatically connect research on climate hazards and lived experiences of impacts with global political negotiations on L&D and transformative climate action and justice. Existing disaster databases and extreme event attribution services could be enhanced with knowledge relevant for L&D, including information on exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, financial support, and governance. Existing disaster forensics tools could be enriched with knowledge on L&D in the UNFCCC context, including the political and legal implications of evidence these tools provide. A broadening from risk management to climate justice also awakens new possibilities for climate services. An expansion of climate services for L&D would contribute to climate justice by substantiating the L&D mechanism under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement and the claims for compensating L&D in climate litigation and activism. Novel users (and co-producers) of climate services for L&D might be legal professionals, journalists, affected communities, and activists, in addition to the traditional users such as planners, consultants, and decision-makers. We encourage the L&D and climate services communities to begin to co-develop with stakeholders such climate services for L&D.
气候变化造成的损失和损害不仅是未来的风险,而且已经是当前的现实,《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)已经将“损失和损害”(L&;D)作为一个政策领域,与减缓和适应一起正式确定下来。虽然气候服务目前为适应和灾害恢复提供了强有力的支持,但在这里,我们建议应开发一套扩展的气候服务,以帮助解决实际损失和损害对气候正义的影响。CS4L&;D可以务实地将气候危害和生活影响的研究与全球关于气候变化和变革性气候行动和正义的政治谈判联系起来。现有的灾害数据库和极端事件归因服务可以通过与灾害和灾害相关的知识得到加强,包括有关暴露、脆弱性、适应能力、财政支持和治理的信息。现有的灾害取证工具可以通过《联合国气候变化框架公约》背景下的灾害灾害知识,包括这些工具提供的证据的政治和法律影响,得到丰富。从风险管理扩展到气候正义也为气候服务带来了新的可能性。扩大为残疾人提供的气候服务将通过证实《巴黎协定》第8条下的残疾人机制以及在气候诉讼和行动主义中对残疾人的赔偿要求,有助于气候正义。除了规划师、顾问和决策者等传统用户外,气候服务的新用户(和共同生产者)可能是法律专业人士、记者、受影响的社区和活动家。我们鼓励环境部和气候服务界开始与利益相关方共同开发环境部气候服务。
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引用次数: 0
Perspectives on climate change and adaptation and mitigation measures amongst farmers of Zamora − Ecuador 萨莫拉-厄瓜多尔农民对气候变化及适应和缓解措施的看法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100565
Daniel Capa-Mora , Jairo Medina , Ángel Benítez , Leticia Jiménez Álvarez
Climate change is currently an inevitable phenomenon, due to the increase in greenhouse gases, deforestation, and low-tech agricultural development, which increase the vulnerability of ecosystems and food insecurity, especially in rural areas. A viable alternative to counteract the effects of climate change is to seek adaptation measures based on the perception and experience of farmers. This research evaluated the perception of climate change and adaptation measures those farmers in nine places of Zamora, province of Zamora Chinchipe-Ecuador, have regarding the risks posed by climate change. Data were collected in 2019–2020 through semi-structured surveys, composed of multiple-choice and open-ended questions. The results indicate that there have been climate changes in the last 5 years, caused by agricultural activities (deforestation, burning, use of agrochemicals, garbage), but most are unaware of mitigation and adaptation strategies; therefore, it is appropriate to generate knowledge regarding this phenomenon. On the other hand, gender, age, ethnicity, education, and economic activity among the farmers of Zamora showed significant effects on the perception of the effects of climate change. As such, this perception along with the experience of farmers, could support the development of training programs to seek alternatives for adaptation and mitigation in the study area.
由于温室气体增加、森林砍伐和低技术农业发展,气候变化目前已成为一种不可避免的现象,这加剧了生态系统的脆弱性和粮食不安全,尤其是在农村地区。应对气候变化影响的一个可行办法是根据农民的认知和经验寻求适应措施。本研究评估了厄瓜多尔萨莫拉-钦奇佩省萨莫拉九个地方的农民对气候变化和适应措施的看法,以及他们对气候变化带来的风险的看法。数据是在 2019-2020 年通过半结构式调查收集的,其中包括多项选择题和开放式问题。结果表明,在过去 5 年里,由于农业活动(砍伐森林、焚烧、使用农用化学品、垃圾),气候发生了变化,但大多数人并不知道减缓和适应战略;因此,了解有关这一现象的知识是适当的。另一方面,萨莫拉农民的性别、年龄、种族、教育程度和经济活动对气候变化影响的认识有显著影响。因此,这种认识和农民的经验有助于制定培训计划,在研究地区寻求适应和减缓气候变化的替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
The nexus between migration and environmental degradation based on fundamental climate variables and extreme climate indices for the MENA domain 基于中东和北非地区基本气候变量和极端气候指数的移民与环境退化之间的关系
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100564
Nazan An , Zekican Demiralay , Meltem Ucal , M. Levent Kurnaz
Environmental migration has recently become primary source of population growth and environmental degradation from extreme events has created the environmental refugee concept with a variety of manners affecting lives. For understanding of the environmental degradation impact on migration, a hybrid approach (regional climate modelling, RegCM4.4 and statistical modelling, ordered logit) has been applied for 65 countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. It is aimed to examine how climate change affect migration by applying fundamental climate variables (i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and the control variables (i.e., the hot days, the tropical nights, and the dry days) in the MENA. While key findings indicate an increase in the minimum temperatures (Tmin) in future in all populous cities, the water amount may further decrease in the mid-latitude and Mediterranean with temperate climates due to precipitation change. While it may pose a high risk in the regions having experienced extreme temperatures e.g., tropical nights (Tn), it may further adversely affect ones not having experienced extremes. Considering statistically significant positive relationship between Tmin, and net migration rate (NMIG), and negative relationship between precipitation and NMIG, it may encourage migration to cooler regions.
近年来,环境移民已成为人口增长的主要来源,极端事件造成的环境退化产生了影响生活方式多样的环境难民概念。为了了解环境退化对移民的影响,对中东和北非(MENA)的65个国家(2021-2050年和2051-2080年)采用了混合方法(区域气候模型RegCM4.4和统计模型有序logit)。它旨在通过应用中东和北非地区的基本气候变量(即最高温度、最低温度和降水)和控制变量(即炎热的日子、热带的夜晚和干燥的日子)来研究气候变化如何影响移民。虽然主要研究结果表明,未来所有人口稠密城市的最低温度(Tmin)都将增加,但由于降水变化,中纬度和温带气候的地中海地区的水量可能进一步减少。虽然它可能在经历过极端温度(如热带夜)的地区构成高风险,但它可能进一步对没有经历过极端温度的地区产生不利影响。考虑到Tmin与净迁移率(NMIG)呈统计学上显著的正相关关系,而降水与NMIG呈负相关关系,它可能鼓励迁移到较冷的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Do regional-specific differences influence smallholder farmers’ climate information use? Evidence from Ghana 区域差异是否影响小农对气候信息的使用?来自加纳的证据
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580
Victor Owusu , Jacob Asravor
Mounting evidence underscores the importance of improving smallholder farmers’ use of reliable climate information (CI) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies have not examined the differences in region-specific climate information use, as well as predictors of the source, type and timing of climate information use. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on how location-specific differences influence the source, type and timing of CI use. Integrating cross-sectional data from 503 households in the Upper West Region (UWR) and Brong-Ahafo Region (BAR) of Ghana into a multivariate probit model, our results indicate that farm households in the two regions exhibit different preferences regarding the source, type and timing of CI use. We find that while households in the BAR are more interested in CI ahead of the season – given that rainfall is relatively secure in that region, CI use ahead of the season is of less interest to those in the UWR where rainfall is more erratic. Our results further show that while CI source, type and timing are considerably influenced by education, distance to the farm, access to credit and extension in the UWR, gender, farm size, education and tractor access tend to drive the source, type and timing of CI use in BAR. These findings underscore the need for a more downscaled and context-specific strategy in disseminating CI services in the various regions of SSA.

Practical implications

Notwithstanding evidence that the adverse impacts of the changing climate on smallholder livelihoods continue to vary within and across communities, districts, regions and agro-ecological zones (Abbam et al., 2018) in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about how location-specific distinctions in climate change impact, infrastructural endowments as well as socioeconomic and plot-level attributes of smallholder farmers influence farm households’ use of climate information (CI). Given that these location-specific distinctions can considerably influence the generation and dissemination of CI, and its subsequent uptake by farm households in various regions, the empirical findings from this study are relevant for policy formulation towards boosting the use of CI. Evidence from this study strongly suggests that the diverse locations of smallholder farmers tend to significantly influence the source, type and period of CI use; for example, farm households in the Brong-Ahafo Region, a relatively more infrastructurally developed region, have better prospects of accessing different types of CI from diverse sources. We further find that the period of the cropping season in which CI is used is considerably influenced by the location of the farmers; and we identify disparities in the plot-level, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of rural households in these two study regions that significantly influence the types, sources and times of CI used by farm households. Con
越来越多的证据强调了在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)提高小农对可靠气候信息(CI)使用的重要性。以前的研究没有检查特定区域气候信息使用的差异,以及气候信息使用的来源、类型和时间的预测因子。在本研究中,我们提供了实证证据,说明地域差异如何影响CI使用的来源、类型和时间。将来自加纳上西部地区(UWR)和布朗-阿哈福地区(BAR)的503户家庭的横截面数据整合到一个多变量概率模型中,我们的结果表明,两个地区的农户在CI使用的来源、类型和时间方面表现出不同的偏好。我们发现,虽然BAR地区的家庭对季节前的CI更感兴趣——考虑到该地区的降雨相对安全,但对于降雨更不稳定的UWR地区的家庭来说,在季节前使用CI不太感兴趣。我们的研究结果进一步表明,尽管教育程度、距离农场的距离、获得信贷和推广的机会对信任信任的来源、类型和时间有显著影响,但性别、农场规模、教育程度和拖拉机获取倾向于影响BAR信任信任的来源、类型和时间。这些发现强调,在SSA的各个地区推广CI服务时,需要采用一种规模更小、针对具体情况的策略。尽管有证据表明,在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,气候变化对小农生计的不利影响在社区、地区、地区和农业生态区内部和之间继续存在差异(Abbam et al., 2018),但人们对气候变化影响的具体位置差异知之甚少。基础设施禀赋以及小农的社会经济和地块属性影响农户对气候信息的使用。鉴于这些特定地点的差异可以显著影响CI的产生和传播,以及不同地区农户随后对CI的吸收,本研究的实证结果与制定促进CI使用的政策相关。本研究的证据强烈表明,小农的不同地点倾向于显著影响CI使用的来源、类型和时间;例如,在基础设施相对较发达的布隆-阿哈福地区,农户从不同来源获得不同类型的CI的前景更好。我们进一步发现,使用CI的种植季节期间受到农民位置的显着影响;我们发现,这两个研究区域的农户在地块水平、制度和社会经济特征方面存在差异,这些差异显著影响了农户使用CI的类型、来源和时间。因此,有必要考虑到农户独特的区域、农业生态、地块水平、制度和社会经济属性。有关CI使用的政策建议应根据这些特定地点的需求量身定制,而不是全盘照搬。对农村基础设施的投资可能会为上西部地区等贫困地区带来经济机会。这可能会促使这些地区的农村家庭投资于不同的CI类型和来源,以加强对气候信息的吸收。
{"title":"Do regional-specific differences influence smallholder farmers’ climate information use? Evidence from Ghana","authors":"Victor Owusu ,&nbsp;Jacob Asravor","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100580","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Mounting evidence underscores the importance of improving smallholder farmers’ use of reliable climate information (CI) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Previous studies have not examined the differences in region-specific climate information use, as well as predictors of the source, type and timing of climate information use. In this study, we provide empirical evidence on how location-specific differences influence the source, type and timing of CI use. Integrating cross-sectional data from 503 households in the Upper West Region (UWR) and Brong-Ahafo Region (BAR) of Ghana into a multivariate probit model, our results indicate that farm households in the two regions exhibit different preferences regarding the source, type and timing of CI use. We find that while households in the BAR are more interested in CI ahead of the season – given that rainfall is relatively secure in that region, CI use ahead of the season is of less interest to those in the UWR where rainfall is more erratic. Our results further show that while CI source, type and timing are considerably influenced by education, distance to the farm, access to credit and extension in the UWR, gender, farm size, education and tractor access tend to drive the source, type and timing of CI use in BAR. These findings underscore the need for a more downscaled and context-specific strategy in disseminating CI services in the various regions of SSA.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Notwithstanding evidence that the adverse impacts of the changing climate on smallholder livelihoods continue to vary within and across communities, districts, regions and agro-ecological zones (<span><span>Abbam et al., 2018</span></span>) in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about how location-specific distinctions in climate change impact, infrastructural endowments as well as socioeconomic and plot-level attributes of smallholder farmers influence farm households’ use of climate information (CI). Given that these location-specific distinctions can considerably influence the generation and dissemination of CI, and its subsequent uptake by farm households in various regions, the empirical findings from this study are relevant for policy formulation towards boosting the use of CI. Evidence from this study strongly suggests that the diverse locations of smallholder farmers tend to significantly influence the source, type and period of CI use; for example, farm households in the Brong-Ahafo Region, a relatively more infrastructurally developed region, have better prospects of accessing different types of CI from diverse sources. We further find that the period of the cropping season in which CI is used is considerably influenced by the location of the farmers; and we identify disparities in the plot-level, institutional and socioeconomic characteristics of rural households in these two study regions that significantly influence the types, sources and times of CI used by farm households. Con","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"38 ","pages":"Article 100580"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144106070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Structuring climate service user groups for capacity building: A European Delphi-based approach 为能力建设构建气候服务用户群:一种基于欧洲delphi的方法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100575
Maria del Pozo Garcia , Judith Gulikers , Bregje van der Bolt , Wouter Smolenaars , Estella Oncins , Perry den Brok , Fulco Ludwig
Defining and categorizing users within climate services is essential for effective capacity building, yet existing classifications remain ambiguous, particularly regarding their roles in collaborative processes. While the literature commonly categorizes users based on their roles in the production chain—from data providers to end-users— there is a need for a more nuanced understanding of these roles, particularly in relation to the knowledge and skills required for capacity building. This study aims to systematically identify and distinguish different target groups within climate services and identify the specific competencies required for effective participation. Using the Delphi method, we engaged a panel of expert trainers from CS capacity-building programs in three rounds of questionnaires. These questionnaires were designed to explore and refine their understanding of key target groups and the knowledge and skills required for each. Additionally, we assessed the trainers’ confidence levels in their evaluations of these aspects. Our findings establish a consensus on four primary target groups—Producers, Intermediaries, Enablers, and Reach-Out—each encompassing distinct sub-groups. Despite some overlap, the fourteen identified sub-groups possess unique knowledge and skills essential for the collaborative climate services. The results underscore the diversity of target groups in the climate production chain and highlight the necessity for tailored capacity building programs to address their specific needs. By enhancing the understanding of target audiences, climate services training initiatives can more effectively support the development of relevant competencies, ultimately strengthening the collaboration needed for climate services.
对气候服务内的用户进行定义和分类对于有效的能力建设至关重要,但现有的分类仍然含糊不清,特别是关于他们在协作过程中的作用。虽然文献通常根据用户在生产链中的角色(从数据提供者到最终用户)对用户进行分类,但需要更细致地了解这些角色,特别是与能力建设所需的知识和技能相关的角色。本研究旨在系统地识别和区分气候服务中的不同目标群体,并确定有效参与所需的具体能力。采用德尔菲法,我们聘请了一组来自CS能力建设项目的专家培训师进行三轮问卷调查。这些问卷的目的是探索和完善他们对关键目标群体的理解,以及每个目标群体所需的知识和技能。此外,我们还评估了培训师对这些方面的评估的信心水平。我们的研究结果建立了四个主要目标群体的共识——生产者、中介、推动者和接触者——每个群体都包含不同的子群体。尽管有一些重叠,但已确定的14个小组拥有协作气候服务所必需的独特知识和技能。研究结果强调了气候生产链中目标群体的多样性,强调了为满足其特定需求而制定针对性能力建设计划的必要性。通过加强对目标受众的了解,气候服务培训举措可以更有效地支持相关能力的发展,最终加强气候服务所需的合作。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of climate change and variability-induced shocks and stresses on rural household livelihoods and their adaptation practices in West Arsi Zone, South-Central Ethiopia 气候变化和变率引起的冲击和压力对埃塞俄比亚中南部西阿尔西地区农村家庭生计及其适应做法的影响
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100561
Abebe Engda , Fantaw Yimer , Muluken Mekuyie , Menfese Tadesse
This study aimed to evaluate the effects of climatic trends and variability on main livelihood practices (crop production), as well as farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to local climate change in West Arsi zone. The data gathered from 354 of the 364 sample households who took part in the survey in six Kebeles utilizing a standardized questionnaire served as the basis for this investigation. Ten surveys with incomplete responses were removed from the data analysis after the responses were reviewed for completeness across all questionnaire sections. Key informant interviews, focus groups, meteorological data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, crop and aid beneficiary data from the West Arsi zone Bureau of Agriculture and Office for Disaster Risk Management were also used in the study. The Mann–Kendall statistical test was used to analyze climate trends. The descriptive and multivariate statistical models in SPSS v.25 and Ms Excel soft wares were used to analyze data. The results indicated significant increase in aggregated mean annual temperature (p < 0.001) by 0.045 °C per year and annual rainfall showed significant decrease (p < 0.1) by 3.7 mm per year in the study area, over the period 1983 to 2019. The results indicates annual rainfall was a significant predictor of crop production (t = 15.24, p < 0.05), and revealed a significant differences in household adaptation practices (p < 0.001) between agro ecological zones. The study also revealed that household demographic and socio-economic factors significantly influenced their adaptation choices, highlighting the need for further research on interventions that enhance local adaptation strategies.
本研究旨在评估气候趋势和变率对西阿尔西地区主要生计方式(作物生产)的影响,以及农民对当地气候变化的认知和适应。在六个Kebeles参加调查的364个样本家庭中,354个家庭使用标准化问卷收集的数据作为本调查的基础。在对所有问卷部分的回复进行完整性审查后,从数据分析中删除了十个回复不完整的调查。该研究还使用了主要线人访谈、焦点小组、来自埃塞俄比亚气象研究所的气象数据、来自西阿尔西地区农业局和灾害风险管理办公室的作物和援助受益人数据。曼-肯德尔统计检验用于分析气候趋势。采用SPSS v.25和Ms Excel软件中的描述性和多元统计模型对数据进行分析。结果表明,年平均气温(p <;0.001),年降雨量显著减少(p <;在1983年至2019年期间,研究区域每年上升3.7毫米(0.1)。结果表明,年降雨量是作物产量的显著预测因子(t = 15.24, p <;0.05),并揭示了家庭适应实践的显著差异(p <;0.001)。该研究还表明,家庭人口和社会经济因素显著影响了他们的适应选择,强调需要进一步研究加强地方适应战略的干预措施。
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引用次数: 0
Usability of agricultural drought vulnerability and resilience indicators in planning strategies for small farms: A principal component approach 农业干旱脆弱性和抗灾能力指标在小农场规划战略中的可用性:主成分方法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100569
Tanaya Sarmah , Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan , Abdullah Konak , Elisabeth Shrimpton , Karina Simone Sass , Marina Batalini De Macedo , Eduardo Mario Mendiondo , Adelaide Cassia Nardocci , Da Huo , Michael Gregory Jacobson
Water-related stresses and risks of droughts, exacerbated by climate change, have been extensively documented. These studies often rely on various indicators to monitor and forecast the impacts of droughts. However, current literature on the usability of these indicators for modelling drought risk and in decision-making processes is fragmented and lacks a clear, systematic, and methodological approach. Usability, in this context, refers to the relevance, accessibility, clarity, and practicality of indicators for guiding planning strategies. To address this knowledge gap, the Management of Disaster Risk and Societal Resilience (MADIS)1 project aims to collate and assess drought vulnerability and resilience indicators from existing literature to support decision-makers in improving policies related to agricultural droughts on small farms.
The MADIS project identified over 100 indicators, from which 36 were selected for further analysis. A global online survey using the Delphi technique was conducted, and the resulting data was used to perform a Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Findings revealed that these 36 indicators could be reduced and grouped up to ten principal components, each corresponding to a theme across five categories: relevancy, understanding, accessibility, objectivity, and temporal. This study, therefore, highlights the practical usability of these indicators for developing context-specific and efficient resilience strategies.
Indicators related to water management were found to be crucial and applicable across all five categories, as the availability, quality, and source of water are essential for monitoring and mitigating drought hazards. Conversely, indicators related to rural development and demographics, while quantifiable and collected at different temporal scales, were deemed less understandable and accessible by experts. Grouping indicators under common themes reduces the complexity of evaluating similar indicators and aids in selecting the most relevant ones for different contexts. This approach simplifies indicator selection and enables decision-makers to formulate resilience policies more efficiently and comprehensively.
与水有关的压力和干旱风险,因气候变化而加剧,已被广泛记录在案。这些研究往往依靠各种指标来监测和预测干旱的影响。然而,目前关于这些指标在干旱风险建模和决策过程中的可用性的文献是零散的,缺乏明确、系统和方法学的方法。在这种情况下,可用性指的是指导规划策略的指标的相关性、可及性、清晰度和实用性。为了解决这一知识缺口,灾害风险和社会恢复力管理(MADIS)1项目旨在从现有文献中整理和评估干旱脆弱性和恢复力指标,以支持决策者改进与小农场农业干旱相关的政策。MADIS项目确定了100多个指标,从中选出36个作进一步分析。使用德尔菲技术进行了一项全球在线调查,并使用结果数据进行主成分分析(PCA)。研究结果表明,这36个指标可以减少并分为10个主要组成部分,每个主要组成部分对应五个类别的主题:相关性、理解性、可及性、客观性和时间性。因此,本研究强调了这些指标在制定特定情境和有效的弹性策略方面的实际可用性。与水管理有关的指标至关重要,适用于所有五个类别,因为水的可得性、质量和来源对监测和减轻干旱危害至关重要。相反,与农村发展和人口统计有关的指标虽然可以量化,并在不同的时间尺度上收集,但专家认为这些指标难以理解和获取。将指标分组在共同主题下,减少了评价类似指标的复杂性,并有助于为不同情况选择最相关的指标。这种方法简化了指标选择,使决策者能够更有效、更全面地制定韧性政策。
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引用次数: 0
Creating and testing an approach for upscaling climate services 创建和测试一种提升气候服务的方法
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100577
Christopher R. Goddard , Galina Guentchev , Erika J. Palin , Mark Harrison , Jason A. Lowe , Tyrone Dunbar , Elizabeth Fuller , Chris Counsell , John Dora , Tim Reeder
Upscaling is the process of moving beyond pilots or prototypes to repeatable and/or transferable services that are accessible and useful to stakeholders and users. It may also refer to increasing the provision, reach, or impact of an existing service. Upscaling any service or product is a complex process, which – in the case of climate services – is exacerbated by serving an emerging market, and many projects taking place in academic settings with short term funding cycles. Climate service providers, their delivery partners and funders could benefit from increased reach and impact by explicitly considering how their services can scale and what the enablers and barriers to this may be. This could take the form of reviewing academic literature, applying structured frameworks, or learning from best practice examples.
Here, we describe the process of creating, testing, and refining an upscaling approach for climate services. The resulting approach is presented, alongside case studies that helped update it and provide evidence for its usefulness and useability. This detailed study of upscaling climate services sets the foundation for effective and sustainable provision of climate services beyond pilots and prototypes and further development of upscaling frameworks and tools to this end.
升级是指从试点或原型转向可重复和/或可转让的服务的过程,这些服务对利益相关者和用户来说是可访问和有用的。它也可以指增加现有服务的供应、覆盖范围或影响。任何服务或产品的升级都是一个复杂的过程,就气候服务而言,服务于新兴市场会加剧这一过程,而且许多项目都是在学术背景下进行的,资金周期很短。气候服务提供者、他们的交付合作伙伴和资助者可以通过明确考虑他们的服务如何扩展以及可能的促成因素和障碍,从扩大的覆盖范围和影响中受益。这可以采取回顾学术文献、应用结构化框架或从最佳实践示例中学习的形式。在这里,我们描述了创建、测试和完善气候服务升级方法的过程。提出了最终的方法,以及帮助更新该方法并为其有用性和可用性提供证据的案例研究。这项关于扩大气候服务规模的详细研究为在试点和原型之外有效和可持续地提供气候服务以及为此进一步开发扩大气候服务的框架和工具奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Adaptation to climate change by the indigenous farmers in the western Tarai of Nepal 尼泊尔西部塔拉伊地区土著农民对气候变化的适应
IF 4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100559
Buddhi R. Chaudhary , Greg Acciaioli , William Erskine , Luni Piya , Niraj Prakash Joshi
Challenges posed by climate change are more severe for indigenous farmers in developing countries. For them, their rich socio-culture constructs their livelihood capitals, which also indicate their adaptive capacity (AC). Hence, understanding their adaptation strategies to climate change and their adoption in relation to AC is urgently needed. All 229 Tharu households residing in two rural villages in the Western Tarai of Nepal were surveyed using the semi-structured questionnaire complemented by two focused group discussions and 10 key informant interviews with leading farmers and concerned stakeholders. The questionnaire included three sections, namely; agriculture, climate change, and livelihoods along with the household characteristics. We found that AC varies with space and gender. The geographical location of the village and households with access to service and market have better AC. Women had lower AC, particularly human capital and natural capital of livelihoods. The Tharu consider multiple adaptation strategies to deal with the farming in changed climatic contexts. Adopting modern agriculture technology in major cereal crops and continuing landraces with traditional practices are prominent adaptation strategies. This signifies the importance of indigenous knowledge and practice in climate change adaptation for the Tharu. Consequently, they are also contributing to the conservation of valuable landraces. Landholding, access to water pumps, extension services, and weather information are the significantly important factors associated with the adoption of adaptation strategies by the Tharu. Thus, the interventions must be designed to increase access to extension services, improve farmers’ access to water pumps, and secure tenurial arrangements to adopt climate change adaptation measures effectively.
气候变化给发展中国家的土著农民带来的挑战更为严峻。对他们来说,丰富的社会文化构成了他们的生计资本,这也表明了他们的适应能力。因此,迫切需要了解它们对气候变化的适应策略及其与AC的关系。对居住在尼泊尔西部塔拉伊两个农村的229户塔鲁人家庭进行了半结构化问卷调查,辅以两次重点小组讨论和与主要农民和相关利益相关者的10次关键信息提供者访谈。问卷包括三个部分,分别是;农业、气候变化、生计以及家庭特征。我们发现AC随空间和性别而变化。村庄的地理位置和获得服务和市场的家庭的AC较好。妇女的AC较低,特别是人力资本和生计的自然资本。塔鲁人考虑多种适应策略来应对气候变化背景下的农业。在主要谷类作物中采用现代农业技术和继续采用传统做法的地方品种是突出的适应策略。这表明土著知识和实践对塔鲁人适应气候变化的重要性。因此,他们也为保护有价值的本土物种做出了贡献。土地占有、获得水泵、推广服务和天气信息是与塔鲁人采用适应战略相关的重要因素。因此,干预措施的设计必须能够增加获得推广服务的机会,改善农民获得水泵的机会,并确保权利人的安排,以便有效地采取气候变化适应措施。
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引用次数: 0
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Climate Services
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