Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602
Jaeyeon Lim , Sangung Lee , Bu Geon Jo , Joo-Heon Lee , Young Do Kim
Droughts driven by climate change increasingly affect aquatic ecosystems by deteriorating water quality. However, conventional drought indices primarily focus on water quantity, limiting their ability to capture environmental impacts. To address this gap, this study develops the Water Quality Environmental Drought Index (WQEDI), building on the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) originally proposed by Srivastava and Maity (2023) and later adapted by Jo et al. (2024) to include water quality indicators.
WQEDI introduces three key innovations, including the integration of water quality indicators alongside hydrological and meteorological variables; data driven variable selection and weighting using Random Forest (RF), with threshold derivation via Decision Tree (DT) models; and watershed- specific drought grading tailored to urban, rural, and forest watershed typologies, thereby enhancing spatial adaptability.
Validation results confirmed that WQEDI outperforms the EDI proposed by Jo et al. (2024) in terms of explanatory power, showing stronger correlations with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentrations and more consistent exceedance patterns. Moreover, BOD exceedance rates systematically increased with higher WQEDI drought grades, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing environmental drought severity.
Based on these findings, the study identified watershed-specific priority grades and intervention periods and proposed customized drought management strategies. WQEDI provides a refined and adaptable framework for diagnosing and managing drought induced water quality deterioration. It offers a scientifically grounded basis for environmental drought response and supports the development of evidence-based water management and climate adaptation policies.
气候变化导致的干旱通过恶化水质日益影响水生生态系统。然而，传统的干旱指数主要关注水量，限制了它们捕捉环境影响的能力。为了解决这一差距，本研究在Srivastava和Maity（2023）最初提出的环境干旱指数（EDI）的基础上开发了水质环境干旱指数（WQEDI），后来由Jo等人（2024）进行了修改，以包括水质指标。WQEDI引入了三个关键创新，包括将水质指标与水文和气象变量相结合；数据驱动的变量选择和加权使用随机森林（RF），并通过决策树（DT）模型的阈值推导；并根据城市、农村和森林流域类型进行流域干旱分级，从而增强空间适应性。验证结果证实，WQEDI在解释力方面优于Jo et al.（2024）提出的EDI，与生化需氧量（BOD）浓度的相关性更强，超出模式更一致。此外，BOD超标率随着WQEDI干旱等级的升高而系统地增加，表明其在捕获环境干旱严重程度方面的有效性。基于这些发现，该研究确定了流域特定的优先等级和干预期，并提出了定制的干旱管理策略。WQEDI为诊断和管理干旱引起的水质恶化提供了一个完善和适应性强的框架。它为环境干旱响应提供了科学依据，并支持以证据为基础的水资源管理和气候适应政策的制定。
{"title":"Development and application of a watershed-based environmental drought index reflecting water cycle characteristics","authors":"Jaeyeon Lim , Sangung Lee , Bu Geon Jo , Joo-Heon Lee , Young Do Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Droughts driven by climate change increasingly affect aquatic ecosystems by deteriorating water quality. However, conventional drought indices primarily focus on water quantity, limiting their ability to capture environmental impacts. To address this gap, this study develops the Water Quality Environmental Drought Index (WQEDI), building on the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) originally proposed by Srivastava and Maity (2023) and later adapted by Jo et al. (2024) to include water quality indicators.</div><div>WQEDI introduces three key innovations, including the integration of water quality indicators alongside hydrological and meteorological variables; data driven variable selection and weighting using Random Forest (RF), with threshold derivation via Decision Tree (DT) models; and watershed- specific drought grading tailored to urban, rural, and forest watershed typologies, thereby enhancing spatial adaptability.</div><div>Validation results confirmed that WQEDI outperforms the EDI proposed by Jo et al. (2024) in terms of explanatory power, showing stronger correlations with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentrations and more consistent exceedance patterns. Moreover, BOD exceedance rates systematically increased with higher WQEDI drought grades, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing environmental drought severity.</div><div>Based on these findings, the study identified watershed-specific priority grades and intervention periods and proposed customized drought management strategies. WQEDI provides a refined and adaptable framework for diagnosing and managing drought induced water quality deterioration. It offers a scientifically grounded basis for environmental drought response and supports the development of evidence-based water management and climate adaptation policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100602"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609
Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan
<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol
{"title":"Unveiling heatwave events in Bangladesh: Insights from observational records and ERA5 reanalysis data","authors":"Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100609"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604
Chia-Chi Lee , Shih-Yu Lee , Shih-Yun Kuo , Huang-Hsiung Hsu , Ya-Ting Kuo , Mu-Xing Lin , Chung-Pei Pien , Kuei-Tien Chou , Yi-Ting Tsai
The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) S2 Climate-related Disclosures alignments have recently emerged as a main driving force for companies to disclose climate-related risks. In this context, climate scenario analysis has a direct impact on future quantitative climate risks, and therefore plays a pivotal role in the technical aspects of climate-related risk disclosures. To effectively comply with world trend in climate risk disclosures, competent authorities in Taiwan now encourage major companies to actively align with the TCFD and IFRS S2. However, many firms fell into the myth of the “climate scenario analysis competition”, leading major companies to compete to display various scenario analysis results in their reports. While learning from each other, they tend to lose sight of their own needs, avoiding crucial issues and omitting the truly important information. This study uses the industry chain of climate services as an analytical framework to conduct stakeholder interviews to explore the difficulties companies face in accurately disclosing their climate risks and in conducting scenario analysis, and also examine the role played by public climate service providers. The research results show that standard operating procedures (SOP) for scenario analysis in different industries, customized climate scenario production and analysis, and the cultivation of public and private climate service providers are all indispensable for overcoming challenges currently facing effective corporate climate scenario analysis.
{"title":"Corporate competition in climate scenario analysis: Current challenges and solutions","authors":"Chia-Chi Lee , Shih-Yu Lee , Shih-Yun Kuo , Huang-Hsiung Hsu , Ya-Ting Kuo , Mu-Xing Lin , Chung-Pei Pien , Kuei-Tien Chou , Yi-Ting Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) S2 Climate-related Disclosures alignments have recently emerged as a main driving force for companies to disclose climate-related risks. In this context, climate scenario analysis has a direct impact on future quantitative climate risks, and therefore plays a pivotal role in the technical aspects of climate-related risk disclosures. To effectively comply with world trend in climate risk disclosures, competent authorities in Taiwan now encourage major companies to actively align with the TCFD and IFRS S2. However, many firms fell into the myth of the “climate scenario analysis competition”, leading major companies to compete to display various scenario analysis results in their reports. While learning from each other, they tend to lose sight of their own needs, avoiding crucial issues and omitting the truly important information. This study uses the industry chain of climate services as an analytical framework to conduct stakeholder interviews to explore the difficulties companies face in accurately disclosing their climate risks and in conducting scenario analysis, and also examine the role played by public climate service providers. The research results show that standard operating procedures (SOP) for scenario analysis in different industries, customized climate scenario production and analysis, and the cultivation of public and private climate service providers are all indispensable for overcoming challenges currently facing effective corporate climate scenario analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100604"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100623
Robert Monjo , Yassmin H. Essa , Carlos Prado-López , Manpreet Kaur , Darío Redolat , César Paradinas , Dominic Royé , Bodo Ahrens , Roberto San José
This paper discusses statistical and dynamical methods used to produce local (grid-spacing < 4 km) and European (∼10 km) climate scenarios that were used as input for multi-sectoral impact models in the DevelopIng STratEgies by integrating mitigatioN, aDaptation and participation to climate changE Risks (DISTENDER) project, and shares the main results with a special focus on temperature and precipitation. The statistical downscaling consisted of three stages: (1) a parametric quantile mapping at a daily scale; (2) an analogous-transference function of hourly curves for each day, and (3) a classical geostatistical downscaling. This three-stage technique was applied to three representative Earth System Models according to three different climate-change level (being EC-EARTH3-Veg the medium case) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). In addition, dynamical downscaling was also considered. Particularly, the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model downscaled the EC-EARTH3-Veg model to computationally costly km-scale resolution under all four pathways. Both downscaling approaches show consistent behaviour for the downscaled model under the different pathways. Results indicate historical biases in precipitation about ± 10 % in general, while temperature biases ranged from −2°C to + 1°C across different regions and seasons. Under SSP5-8.5, summer precipitation in southern Europe is projected to decrease by up to 20 %, while northern Europe experiences increases of + 10 % to + 15 %. Temperature increases under the same scenario reach + 5°C in summer across southern Europe, with smaller increases of + 2°C to + 3°C in northern regions. These findings on management for uncertainty levels demonstrate the utility of combined downscaling approaches for local climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies.
{"title":"High time- and spatial-resolution climate scenarios of the DISTENDER project according to statistical and dynamical downscaling","authors":"Robert Monjo , Yassmin H. Essa , Carlos Prado-López , Manpreet Kaur , Darío Redolat , César Paradinas , Dominic Royé , Bodo Ahrens , Roberto San José","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100623","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100623","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper discusses statistical and dynamical methods used to produce local (grid-spacing < 4 km) and European (∼10 km) climate scenarios that were used as input for multi-sectoral impact models in the DevelopIng STratEgies by integrating mitigatioN, aDaptation and participation to climate changE Risks (DISTENDER) project, and shares the main results with a special focus on temperature and precipitation. The statistical downscaling consisted of three stages: (1) a parametric quantile mapping at a daily scale; (2) an analogous-transference function of hourly curves for each day, and (3) a classical geostatistical downscaling. This three-stage technique was applied to three representative Earth System Models according to three different climate-change level (being EC-EARTH3-Veg the medium case) under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). In addition, dynamical downscaling was also considered. Particularly, the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model downscaled the EC-EARTH3-Veg model to computationally costly km-scale resolution under all four pathways. Both downscaling approaches show consistent behaviour for the downscaled model under the different pathways. Results indicate historical biases in precipitation about ± 10 % in general, while temperature biases ranged from −2°C to + 1°C across different regions and seasons. Under SSP5-8.5, summer precipitation in southern Europe is projected to decrease by up to 20 %, while northern Europe experiences increases of + 10 % to + 15 %. Temperature increases under the same scenario reach + 5°C in summer across southern Europe, with smaller increases of + 2°C to + 3°C in northern regions. These findings on management for uncertainty levels demonstrate the utility of combined downscaling approaches for local climate risk assessment and adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100623"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-20DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612
Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin
Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.
{"title":"Livelihood resilience and digitalization: Food security strategies for marginalized rural communities affected by floods in Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100612"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid intensification of dust storms poses a significant challenge to climate services, forecasting, and early warning systems, with widespread impacts on public health and key sectors like aviation. While a general link between these storms and meteorological depressions is known, the specific dynamic mechanisms that drive their rapid development and make them difficult to predict remain poorly understood. This study addresses this critical gap by providing a detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis of a high-impact dust storm that occurred over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from March 15–19, 2017. Utilizing ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data and SEVIRI satellite imagery, we investigated the atmospheric processes that led to the event. The analysis confirms that the storm was initiated by a desert depression that formed in the lee of the Atlas Mountains. The cyclogenesis was fueled by a strong meridional temperature gradient at the lower levels and driven by the advection of positive vorticity and a warm air mass toward the developing depression. Within the region of low-level baroclinicity, the depression’s development was aided by strong low-level winds. These conditions intensified winds, which, coupled with a direct transverse circulation, triggered significant dust mobilization and vertical mixing. These findings directly contribute to the improvement of climate services that were introduced into the region by identifying the key dynamical precursors that could be used as more reliable indicators of imminent, high-impact dust events. This research demonstrates how a better understanding of the formation processes of desert depressions can enhance the accuracy and lead time of operational forecasts, ultimately leading to more effective early warning systems.
{"title":"Dust distribution and transport associated with a desert depression","authors":"Motirh Al-Mutairi , Abdulhaleem Labban , Abdallah Abdeldym , Amgad Saber , Heshmat Abdel Basset , Mohamed Eid","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100614","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100614","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The rapid intensification of dust storms poses a significant challenge to climate services, forecasting, and early warning systems, with widespread impacts on public health and key sectors like aviation. While a general link between these storms and meteorological depressions is known, the specific dynamic mechanisms that drive their rapid development and make them difficult to predict remain poorly understood. This study addresses this critical gap by providing a detailed synoptic-dynamic analysis of a high-impact dust storm that occurred over North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from March 15–19, 2017. Utilizing ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data and SEVIRI satellite imagery, we investigated the atmospheric processes that led to the event. The analysis confirms that the storm was initiated by a desert depression that formed in the lee of the Atlas Mountains. The cyclogenesis was fueled by a strong meridional temperature gradient at the lower levels and driven by the advection of positive vorticity and a warm air mass toward the developing depression. Within the region of low-level baroclinicity, the depression’s development was aided by strong low-level winds. These conditions intensified winds, which, coupled with a direct transverse circulation, triggered significant dust mobilization and vertical mixing. These findings directly contribute to the improvement of climate services that were introduced into the region by identifying the key dynamical precursors that could be used as more reliable indicators of imminent, high-impact dust events. This research demonstrates how a better understanding of the formation processes of desert depressions can enhance the accuracy and lead time of operational forecasts, ultimately leading to more effective early warning systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100614"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145108983","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607
Balbina Nyamakura , Ilyas Masih , Micha Werner , Leon Hermans , Graham Jewitt
Co-creation is seen as instrumental in bridging the gap between scientific innovation in climate services and their use in decision-making. However, there has been limited engagement with the different types of co-creation approaches that exist in practice, how they are executed, how they bridge the usability gap, and in what situations they would be most effective. This study aims to characterise climate service co-creation in practice, and develop typologies to explore how they bridge the usability gap. We conducted Thematic and Ideal Type Analyses of 33 case studies developed from Key Informant Interviews and Content Analysis of co-creation process documents.
We show that i) co-creation approaches place a strong emphasis on the climate information (its usability and usefulness) to improve use of climate services, ii) co-creation in practice deviates from the theoretical approach, and iii) in addition to other contextual factors, the mode (research and commissioned) of co-creation has a strong influence on the execution of co-creation processes. We develop three typologies of climate service co-creation in practice; i) information-intensive (n = 21), concerned with producing useful information; ii) functional-use intensive (n = 5), concerned with the usability of the co-created information in decision-making; and, iii) innovation-oriented (n = 7), concerned with embedding new insights into innovative climate services.
This study benefits researchers and practitioners implementing co-creation in the field of climate services to understand the types of co-creation that exist, the risks associated with each type, and the level to which each type may influence the use of climate services.
{"title":"Typologies of climate service co-creation approaches in practice","authors":"Balbina Nyamakura , Ilyas Masih , Micha Werner , Leon Hermans , Graham Jewitt","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Co-creation is seen as instrumental in bridging the gap between scientific innovation in climate services and their use in decision-making. However, there has been limited engagement with the different types of co-creation approaches that exist in practice, how they are executed, how they bridge the usability gap, and in what situations they would be most effective. This study aims to characterise climate service co-creation in practice, and develop typologies to explore how they bridge the usability gap. We conducted Thematic and Ideal Type Analyses of 33 case studies developed from Key Informant Interviews and Content Analysis of co-creation process documents.</div><div>We show that i) co-creation approaches place a strong emphasis on the climate information (its usability and usefulness) to improve use of climate services, ii) co-creation in practice deviates from the theoretical approach, and iii) in addition to other contextual factors, the mode (research and commissioned) of co-creation has a strong influence on the execution of co-creation processes. We develop three typologies of climate service co-creation in practice; i) information-intensive (n = 21), concerned with producing useful information; ii) functional-use intensive (n = 5), concerned with the usability of the co-created information in decision-making; and, iii) innovation-oriented (n = 7), concerned with embedding new insights into innovative climate services.</div><div>This study benefits researchers and practitioners implementing co-creation in the field of climate services to understand the types of co-creation that exist, the risks associated with each type, and the level to which each type may influence the use of climate services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100607"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-09-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608
Ariel S. Prinsloo, Jennifer M. Fitchett
Tourism climate indices are used to quantify, classify and compare the climatic suitability of tourism destinations. Most, if not all, are used in isolation. Where more than one index is used, it is often to demonstrate the relative efficacy of one index. This is peculiar within climate sciences, where for thermal comfort and climate modelling, multi-index approaches are the norm. We advocate for the extension of this approach to tourism climatology, as multi-index approaches provide a more comprehensive understanding of the climatic suitability of destinations for a wide range of tourist activities on offer. We make this argument through applying this approach to Réunion Island, a destination with diverse forms of tourism, topography and microclimates. Applying the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), Holiday Climate Index for Urban Tourism (HCIUrban), Holiday Climate Index for Beach Tourism (HCIBeach) and the Camping Climate Index (CCI) for 33 years of data across 11 stations, we demonstrate the varied outputs in terms of peak seasonal suitability across touristic attractions, the relative suitability across locations and change in climatic suitability over time. This approach is beneficial in describing the climatic suitability for tourism more accurately, identifying the nuances in suitability for different tourism types and is, therefore, a valuable approach to use in future studies.
{"title":"Leveraging the benefits of a multi-index approach in quantifying and classifying climatic suitability for tourism","authors":"Ariel S. Prinsloo, Jennifer M. Fitchett","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism climate indices are used to quantify, classify and compare the climatic suitability of tourism destinations. Most, if not all, are used in isolation. Where more than one index is used, it is often to demonstrate the relative efficacy of one index. This is peculiar within climate sciences, where for thermal comfort and climate modelling, multi-index approaches are the norm. We advocate for the extension of this approach to tourism climatology, as multi-index approaches provide a more comprehensive understanding of the climatic suitability of destinations for a wide range of tourist activities on offer. We make this argument through applying this approach to Réunion Island, a destination with diverse forms of tourism, topography and microclimates. Applying the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), Holiday Climate Index for Urban Tourism (HCI<sub>Urban</sub>), Holiday Climate Index for Beach Tourism (HCI<sub>Beach</sub>) and the Camping Climate Index (CCI) for 33 years of data across 11 stations, we demonstrate the varied outputs in terms of peak seasonal suitability across touristic attractions, the relative suitability across locations and change in climatic suitability over time. This approach is beneficial in describing the climatic suitability for tourism more accurately, identifying the nuances in suitability for different tourism types and is, therefore, a valuable approach to use in future studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100608"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100627
Youngeun Kim, Namyoung Kang
For effective prevention of climatic disasters from tropical cyclones (TCs), forecast information on TC activity needs to be developed in a form that can be practically exploited in the public. This study aims to construct a probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal number of TCs occurring over the western North Pacific based on a hybrid modeling technique. First, a numerical ensemble model, global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6), is employed to the hybrid model, where the ensemble outputs are used for dynamical inputs to the statistical module. Then, a Poisson regression modeling is applied to the statistical module and the predictive probability distribution is produced. Lastly, a probabilistic forecast procedure using five forecast categories such as “Below Normal”, “Normal or Below Normal”, “Normal”, “Normal or Above Normal”, and “Above Normal” is proposed based on the probability distribution. All procedure is demonstrated and verified using GloSea6’s hindcasts over the 24 years (1993–2016) during six months (from June to November). This study contributes to disaster management by enhancing the usability and interpretability of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, thereby supporting anticipatory decision-making under conditions of climatic uncertainty.
{"title":"A hybrid-model-based probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal frequency of tropical cyclones","authors":"Youngeun Kim, Namyoung Kang","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100627","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100627","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>For effective prevention of climatic disasters from tropical cyclones (TCs), forecast information on TC activity needs to be developed in a form that can be practically exploited in the public. This study aims to construct a probabilistic forecast procedure for the seasonal number of TCs occurring over the western North Pacific based on a hybrid modeling technique. First, a numerical ensemble model, global seasonal forecasting system version 6 (GloSea6), is employed to the hybrid model, where the ensemble outputs are used for dynamical inputs to the statistical module. Then, a Poisson regression modeling is applied to the statistical module and the predictive probability distribution is produced. Lastly, a probabilistic forecast procedure using five forecast categories such as “Below Normal”, “Normal or Below Normal”, “Normal”, “Normal or Above Normal”, and “Above Normal” is proposed based on the probability distribution. All procedure is demonstrated and verified using GloSea6’s hindcasts over the 24 years (1993–2016) during six months (from June to November). This study contributes to disaster management by enhancing the usability and interpretability of seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, thereby supporting anticipatory decision-making under conditions of climatic uncertainty.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100627"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-01Epub Date: 2025-10-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100621
Deb Rudnick , Lara Hansen , Marc Stern , Caleb O’brien , Jenn Brousseau , Arden Drake , Eric Mielbrecht
We lay out a methodology for planning and implementing place-based climate adaptation workshops, which are an increasingly commonly used tool to help communities prepare for and respond to climate change impacts. This methodology was created using literature from the field, a Delphi study to generate consensus-based best practices for effective workshops in the United States, and the authors’ experiences implementing the methodology at workshops in eight U.S. communities across a range of geographies, political contexts, and climate exposures. Workshop facilitators guided participants through vulnerability assessments for their communities, introduced tools and data for supporting this work, and engaged participants in break-out group discussions to co-develop adaptation solutions for increasing community resilience to identified climate change vulnerabilities. Our work supports that workshop effectiveness is enhanced when key conditions are put in place, including encouraging a diversity of participation; reducing barriers to participation; providing expert facilitation; sharing locally relevant examples; and creating space for co-generated solutions that are feasible and for which leaders and partners are identified to lead implementation. We share evidence that, while workshops were recent, communities have started undertaking adaptation solutions identified during the climate adaptation workshops and are translating them into planning and implementation in their communities. In providing this methodology, we aim to share a case study for creating and conducting effective, capacity-building place-based climate adaptation workshops that can help communities build resilience to climate change.
{"title":"Community vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning: A workshop methodology to expedite progress","authors":"Deb Rudnick , Lara Hansen , Marc Stern , Caleb O’brien , Jenn Brousseau , Arden Drake , Eric Mielbrecht","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We lay out a methodology for planning and implementing place-based climate adaptation workshops, which are an increasingly commonly used tool to help communities prepare for and respond to climate change impacts. This methodology was created using literature from the field, a Delphi study to generate consensus-based best practices for effective workshops in the United States, and the authors’ experiences implementing the methodology at workshops in eight U.S. communities across a range of geographies, political contexts, and climate exposures. Workshop facilitators guided participants through vulnerability assessments for their communities, introduced tools and data for supporting this work, and engaged participants in break-out group discussions to co-develop adaptation solutions for increasing community resilience to identified climate change vulnerabilities. Our work supports that workshop effectiveness is enhanced when key conditions are put in place, including encouraging a diversity of participation; reducing barriers to participation; providing expert facilitation; sharing locally relevant examples; and creating space for co-generated solutions that are feasible and for which leaders and partners are identified to lead implementation. We share evidence that, while workshops were recent, communities have started undertaking adaptation solutions identified during the climate adaptation workshops and are translating them into planning and implementation in their communities. In providing this methodology, we aim to share a case study for creating and conducting effective, capacity-building place-based climate adaptation workshops that can help communities build resilience to climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100621"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416172","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号