Pub Date : 2025-09-20DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612
Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin
Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.
{"title":"Livelihood resilience and digitalization: Food security strategies for marginalized rural communities affected by floods in Pakistan","authors":"Muhammad Aamir Shahzad , Xu Zhao , Jin Zhang , Mehwish Rasheed , Shengze Qin","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100612","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to floods which severely affect millions of people and create food instability and obstruct livelihoods with marginalized rural communities are most at risk due to poor resources and adaptive capability. Strengthening household-level strategies is critical for enhancing community resilience. This study aims to identify the adoption of flood resilience strategies, the role of digitalization and assess their impact on food instability and livelihood resilience in marginalized rural communities using multivariate probit model and propensity score matching techniques. This uses data from 384 households, collected through multistage sampling methods. Findings indicate that most households lack digitalization services and effective early warning mechanisms; however, they adopt mitigation measures that enhance livelihoods and food stability. For instance, migration is associated with larger landholdings, while mixed farming and diversified occupations increase livestock ownership, resource mobilization, and dietary diversity, although cereal-based diets remain predominant. Gender imbalances and sociodemographic factors significantly influence flood coping strategies and community livelihood resilience. This study suggests that policy measures should expand digital infrastructure and early warning systems, address gender inequalities, and promote diversified livelihoods. Locally tailored adaptation strategies, coupled with dietary diversification, are essential for sustainable flood resilience and long-term food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100612"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate information services (CIS) are essential for the agricultural sector, empowering farmers to effectively adapt to climate-induced challenges and make informed decisions. This study explored the status of CIS and utilization among smallholder farmers in Sidama region, Ethiopia. Data was collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observation. Multi-stage sampling techniques were applied and purposefully selected three woredas (districts), from three different agroecological zones. 384 households were selected using a systematic random sampling. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive, qualitative analysis, chi-square tests, and a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated a moderate status of know-how and access to CIS with 50.8% of farmers having access to the CIS, of which only 33.9% actively utilized the information. The primary sources for CIS are agricultural extension officers, radio, television, mobile phones, peer farmers, and village leaders. In the Low lands (39.6%), midland (36.9%), and highland only 18.9% of the sample households utilized the services. The low landers where moisture stress is significant, farmers are more interested in utilizing CIS comparatively. The result also proves that the most prominent factors hindering the utilization of CIS are farmers’ education level, farm size, availability of credit, access to extension services, and absence of social protection services, income level, market access, and trust in the provided information. To enhance productivity, stakeholders including local and regional governments and agricultural extension services in collaboration with meteorological service providers should focus on improving the availability, accessibility, reliability, and utilization of CIS.
{"title":"Climate information services and its determinants among smallholder farmers in Sidama Region, southern Ethiopia","authors":"Mamuye Belihu , Tafesse Matewos , Kereyu Kebede , Tirfu Kakiso","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100611","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100611","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate information services (CIS) are essential for the agricultural sector, empowering farmers to effectively adapt to climate-induced challenges and make informed decisions. This study explored the status of CIS and utilization among smallholder farmers in Sidama region, Ethiopia. Data was collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observation. Multi-stage sampling techniques were applied and purposefully selected three woredas (districts), from three different agroecological zones. 384 households were selected using a systematic random sampling. Data analysis was conducted using descriptive, qualitative analysis, chi-square tests, and a binary logistic regression model. The results indicated a moderate status of know-how and access to CIS with 50.8% of farmers having access to the CIS, of which only 33.9% actively utilized the information. The primary sources for CIS are agricultural extension officers, radio, television, mobile phones, peer farmers, and village leaders. In the Low lands (39.6%), midland (36.9%), and highland only 18.9% of the sample households utilized the services. The low landers where moisture stress is significant, farmers are more interested in utilizing CIS comparatively. The result also proves that the most prominent factors hindering the utilization of CIS are farmers’ education level, farm size, availability of credit, access to extension services, and absence of social protection services, income level, market access, and trust in the provided information. To enhance productivity, stakeholders including local and regional governments and agricultural extension services in collaboration with meteorological service providers should focus on improving the availability, accessibility, reliability, and utilization of CIS.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100611"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609
Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan
<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol
{"title":"Unveiling heatwave events in Bangladesh: Insights from observational records and ERA5 reanalysis data","authors":"Salit Chakma , Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah , Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan , Md Saqib Shahriar , Mohammad Al Masum Molla , Quazi K. Hassan , Ashraf Dewan","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100609","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Heatwaves (HWs) are escalating in frequency and intensity, posing serious risks to human health, agriculture, and infrastructure worldwide. However, the lack of a universally accepted definition of HWs complicates consistent characterization across regions. In Bangladesh, a subtropical country increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, the dynamics of HWs remain insufficiently understood. This study aims to bridge that knowledge gap by analyzing three decades of observational data to characterize HWs in Bangladesh, using ambient and apparent temperature metrics. Five HW indices were employed to assess 24-hour (EHF), daytime (CTX90pct, TX90), and nocturnal (CTN90pct, TN90) HW patterns, with humidity effects incorporated through apparent temperature-based indices. HWs were defined as events lasting at least three consecutive days, reflecting the heightened health risks of prolonged exposure. HWs were evaluated in terms of frequency, duration, intensity, and early onset patterns. Station-based observations were compared against corresponding estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. The 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature emerged as a robust operational threshold for HW characterization in Bangladesh. Declines in temperature variability during HW events were linked to reduced intensities for indices sensitive to short-term variability or independent of seasonality. Humidity exerted a stronger influence on nocturnal HWs than on daytime events, while seasonal variations in temperature and humidity during the pre- and post-monsoon periods significantly shaped HW characteristics. These findings provide new insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of HWs in Bangladesh, offering an evidence base to inform adaptation strategies in other subtropical regions facing similar climate threats.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>This study provides critical insights into the growing challenges of HWs in Bangladesh, highlighting their increasing frequency, duration, intensity, and earlier onset. The findings underscore the importance of adopting the 90<sup>th</sup> percentile of daily temperature as a reliable threshold for HW characterization, tailored to Bangladesh’s subtropical climate. The study reveals distinct regional and seasonal patterns, with coastal areas experiencing prolonged HWs and humidity-driven nocturnal events, which significantly disrupt nighttime recovery and productivity. Policymakers can leverage these insights to develop localized mitigation strategies, such as early warning systems, urban heat management plans, and infrastructure adaptations to reduce HW impacts. The results emphasize the role of humidity in intensifying heat stress, calling for integrated approaches that consider both ambient temperature and apparent temperature metrics in HW assessments. Furthermore, the methodology used in this study is transferable to other similar climatic contexts, making the results valuable for informing pol","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100609"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-16DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607
Balbina Nyamakura , Ilyas Masih , Micha Werner , Leon Hermans , Graham Jewitt
Co-creation is seen as instrumental in bridging the gap between scientific innovation in climate services and their use in decision-making. However, there has been limited engagement with the different types of co-creation approaches that exist in practice, how they are executed, how they bridge the usability gap, and in what situations they would be most effective. This study aims to characterise climate service co-creation in practice, and develop typologies to explore how they bridge the usability gap. We conducted Thematic and Ideal Type Analyses of 33 case studies developed from Key Informant Interviews and Content Analysis of co-creation process documents.
We show that i) co-creation approaches place a strong emphasis on the climate information (its usability and usefulness) to improve use of climate services, ii) co-creation in practice deviates from the theoretical approach, and iii) in addition to other contextual factors, the mode (research and commissioned) of co-creation has a strong influence on the execution of co-creation processes. We develop three typologies of climate service co-creation in practice; i) information-intensive (n = 21), concerned with producing useful information; ii) functional-use intensive (n = 5), concerned with the usability of the co-created information in decision-making; and, iii) innovation-oriented (n = 7), concerned with embedding new insights into innovative climate services.
This study benefits researchers and practitioners implementing co-creation in the field of climate services to understand the types of co-creation that exist, the risks associated with each type, and the level to which each type may influence the use of climate services.
{"title":"Typologies of climate service co-creation approaches in practice","authors":"Balbina Nyamakura , Ilyas Masih , Micha Werner , Leon Hermans , Graham Jewitt","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Co-creation is seen as instrumental in bridging the gap between scientific innovation in climate services and their use in decision-making. However, there has been limited engagement with the different types of co-creation approaches that exist in practice, how they are executed, how they bridge the usability gap, and in what situations they would be most effective. This study aims to characterise climate service co-creation in practice, and develop typologies to explore how they bridge the usability gap. We conducted Thematic and Ideal Type Analyses of 33 case studies developed from Key Informant Interviews and Content Analysis of co-creation process documents.</div><div>We show that i) co-creation approaches place a strong emphasis on the climate information (its usability and usefulness) to improve use of climate services, ii) co-creation in practice deviates from the theoretical approach, and iii) in addition to other contextual factors, the mode (research and commissioned) of co-creation has a strong influence on the execution of co-creation processes. We develop three typologies of climate service co-creation in practice; i) information-intensive (n = 21), concerned with producing useful information; ii) functional-use intensive (n = 5), concerned with the usability of the co-created information in decision-making; and, iii) innovation-oriented (n = 7), concerned with embedding new insights into innovative climate services.</div><div>This study benefits researchers and practitioners implementing co-creation in the field of climate services to understand the types of co-creation that exist, the risks associated with each type, and the level to which each type may influence the use of climate services.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100607"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145095626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-13DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608
Ariel S. Prinsloo, Jennifer M. Fitchett
Tourism climate indices are used to quantify, classify and compare the climatic suitability of tourism destinations. Most, if not all, are used in isolation. Where more than one index is used, it is often to demonstrate the relative efficacy of one index. This is peculiar within climate sciences, where for thermal comfort and climate modelling, multi-index approaches are the norm. We advocate for the extension of this approach to tourism climatology, as multi-index approaches provide a more comprehensive understanding of the climatic suitability of destinations for a wide range of tourist activities on offer. We make this argument through applying this approach to Réunion Island, a destination with diverse forms of tourism, topography and microclimates. Applying the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), Holiday Climate Index for Urban Tourism (HCIUrban), Holiday Climate Index for Beach Tourism (HCIBeach) and the Camping Climate Index (CCI) for 33 years of data across 11 stations, we demonstrate the varied outputs in terms of peak seasonal suitability across touristic attractions, the relative suitability across locations and change in climatic suitability over time. This approach is beneficial in describing the climatic suitability for tourism more accurately, identifying the nuances in suitability for different tourism types and is, therefore, a valuable approach to use in future studies.
{"title":"Leveraging the benefits of a multi-index approach in quantifying and classifying climatic suitability for tourism","authors":"Ariel S. Prinsloo, Jennifer M. Fitchett","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism climate indices are used to quantify, classify and compare the climatic suitability of tourism destinations. Most, if not all, are used in isolation. Where more than one index is used, it is often to demonstrate the relative efficacy of one index. This is peculiar within climate sciences, where for thermal comfort and climate modelling, multi-index approaches are the norm. We advocate for the extension of this approach to tourism climatology, as multi-index approaches provide a more comprehensive understanding of the climatic suitability of destinations for a wide range of tourist activities on offer. We make this argument through applying this approach to Réunion Island, a destination with diverse forms of tourism, topography and microclimates. Applying the Tourism Climate Index (TCI), Holiday Climate Index for Urban Tourism (HCI<sub>Urban</sub>), Holiday Climate Index for Beach Tourism (HCI<sub>Beach</sub>) and the Camping Climate Index (CCI) for 33 years of data across 11 stations, we demonstrate the varied outputs in terms of peak seasonal suitability across touristic attractions, the relative suitability across locations and change in climatic suitability over time. This approach is beneficial in describing the climatic suitability for tourism more accurately, identifying the nuances in suitability for different tourism types and is, therefore, a valuable approach to use in future studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100608"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145049024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602
Jaeyeon Lim , Sangung Lee , Bu Geon Jo , Joo-Heon Lee , Young Do Kim
Droughts driven by climate change increasingly affect aquatic ecosystems by deteriorating water quality. However, conventional drought indices primarily focus on water quantity, limiting their ability to capture environmental impacts. To address this gap, this study develops the Water Quality Environmental Drought Index (WQEDI), building on the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) originally proposed by Srivastava and Maity (2023) and later adapted by Jo et al. (2024) to include water quality indicators.
WQEDI introduces three key innovations, including the integration of water quality indicators alongside hydrological and meteorological variables; data driven variable selection and weighting using Random Forest (RF), with threshold derivation via Decision Tree (DT) models; and watershed- specific drought grading tailored to urban, rural, and forest watershed typologies, thereby enhancing spatial adaptability.
Validation results confirmed that WQEDI outperforms the EDI proposed by Jo et al. (2024) in terms of explanatory power, showing stronger correlations with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentrations and more consistent exceedance patterns. Moreover, BOD exceedance rates systematically increased with higher WQEDI drought grades, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing environmental drought severity.
Based on these findings, the study identified watershed-specific priority grades and intervention periods and proposed customized drought management strategies. WQEDI provides a refined and adaptable framework for diagnosing and managing drought induced water quality deterioration. It offers a scientifically grounded basis for environmental drought response and supports the development of evidence-based water management and climate adaptation policies.
气候变化导致的干旱通过恶化水质日益影响水生生态系统。然而，传统的干旱指数主要关注水量，限制了它们捕捉环境影响的能力。为了解决这一差距，本研究在Srivastava和Maity（2023）最初提出的环境干旱指数（EDI）的基础上开发了水质环境干旱指数（WQEDI），后来由Jo等人（2024）进行了修改，以包括水质指标。WQEDI引入了三个关键创新，包括将水质指标与水文和气象变量相结合；数据驱动的变量选择和加权使用随机森林（RF），并通过决策树（DT）模型的阈值推导；并根据城市、农村和森林流域类型进行流域干旱分级，从而增强空间适应性。验证结果证实，WQEDI在解释力方面优于Jo et al.（2024）提出的EDI，与生化需氧量（BOD）浓度的相关性更强，超出模式更一致。此外，BOD超标率随着WQEDI干旱等级的升高而系统地增加，表明其在捕获环境干旱严重程度方面的有效性。基于这些发现，该研究确定了流域特定的优先等级和干预期，并提出了定制的干旱管理策略。WQEDI为诊断和管理干旱引起的水质恶化提供了一个完善和适应性强的框架。它为环境干旱响应提供了科学依据，并支持以证据为基础的水资源管理和气候适应政策的制定。
{"title":"Development and application of a watershed-based environmental drought index reflecting water cycle characteristics","authors":"Jaeyeon Lim , Sangung Lee , Bu Geon Jo , Joo-Heon Lee , Young Do Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100602","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Droughts driven by climate change increasingly affect aquatic ecosystems by deteriorating water quality. However, conventional drought indices primarily focus on water quantity, limiting their ability to capture environmental impacts. To address this gap, this study develops the Water Quality Environmental Drought Index (WQEDI), building on the Environmental Drought Index (EDI) originally proposed by Srivastava and Maity (2023) and later adapted by Jo et al. (2024) to include water quality indicators.</div><div>WQEDI introduces three key innovations, including the integration of water quality indicators alongside hydrological and meteorological variables; data driven variable selection and weighting using Random Forest (RF), with threshold derivation via Decision Tree (DT) models; and watershed- specific drought grading tailored to urban, rural, and forest watershed typologies, thereby enhancing spatial adaptability.</div><div>Validation results confirmed that WQEDI outperforms the EDI proposed by Jo et al. (2024) in terms of explanatory power, showing stronger correlations with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) concentrations and more consistent exceedance patterns. Moreover, BOD exceedance rates systematically increased with higher WQEDI drought grades, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing environmental drought severity.</div><div>Based on these findings, the study identified watershed-specific priority grades and intervention periods and proposed customized drought management strategies. WQEDI provides a refined and adaptable framework for diagnosing and managing drought induced water quality deterioration. It offers a scientifically grounded basis for environmental drought response and supports the development of evidence-based water management and climate adaptation policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100602"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144908420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604
Chia-Chi Lee , Shih-Yu Lee , Shih-Yun Kuo , Huang-Hsiung Hsu , Ya-Ting Kuo , Mu-Xing Lin , Chung-Pei Pien , Kuei-Tien Chou , Yi-Ting Tsai
The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) S2 Climate-related Disclosures alignments have recently emerged as a main driving force for companies to disclose climate-related risks. In this context, climate scenario analysis has a direct impact on future quantitative climate risks, and therefore plays a pivotal role in the technical aspects of climate-related risk disclosures. To effectively comply with world trend in climate risk disclosures, competent authorities in Taiwan now encourage major companies to actively align with the TCFD and IFRS S2. However, many firms fell into the myth of the “climate scenario analysis competition”, leading major companies to compete to display various scenario analysis results in their reports. While learning from each other, they tend to lose sight of their own needs, avoiding crucial issues and omitting the truly important information. This study uses the industry chain of climate services as an analytical framework to conduct stakeholder interviews to explore the difficulties companies face in accurately disclosing their climate risks and in conducting scenario analysis, and also examine the role played by public climate service providers. The research results show that standard operating procedures (SOP) for scenario analysis in different industries, customized climate scenario production and analysis, and the cultivation of public and private climate service providers are all indispensable for overcoming challenges currently facing effective corporate climate scenario analysis.
{"title":"Corporate competition in climate scenario analysis: Current challenges and solutions","authors":"Chia-Chi Lee , Shih-Yu Lee , Shih-Yun Kuo , Huang-Hsiung Hsu , Ya-Ting Kuo , Mu-Xing Lin , Chung-Pei Pien , Kuei-Tien Chou , Yi-Ting Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100604","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) S2 Climate-related Disclosures alignments have recently emerged as a main driving force for companies to disclose climate-related risks. In this context, climate scenario analysis has a direct impact on future quantitative climate risks, and therefore plays a pivotal role in the technical aspects of climate-related risk disclosures. To effectively comply with world trend in climate risk disclosures, competent authorities in Taiwan now encourage major companies to actively align with the TCFD and IFRS S2. However, many firms fell into the myth of the “climate scenario analysis competition”, leading major companies to compete to display various scenario analysis results in their reports. While learning from each other, they tend to lose sight of their own needs, avoiding crucial issues and omitting the truly important information. This study uses the industry chain of climate services as an analytical framework to conduct stakeholder interviews to explore the difficulties companies face in accurately disclosing their climate risks and in conducting scenario analysis, and also examine the role played by public climate service providers. The research results show that standard operating procedures (SOP) for scenario analysis in different industries, customized climate scenario production and analysis, and the cultivation of public and private climate service providers are all indispensable for overcoming challenges currently facing effective corporate climate scenario analysis.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100604"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144889617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-19DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100606
K.M. Archie , D. Hirschfeld , S. Meerow , J.C. Arnott , L. Keith , J.A. Vano , E. Mateo
<div><div>Extreme heat is deadly and it is disproportionately experienced by lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. Heat practitioners are faced with the dual challenges of taking action to mitigate the level of heat experienced by local residents while preparing communities to manage unavoidable levels of elevated warming. In response to a lack of in-depth information about heat practitioner needs, this work aims to advance our understanding of how efforts to improve climate services may contribute to more effective extreme heat planning and decision-making in the United States. Through a two-round, mixed-methods approach that employed group interviews and a survey, we engaged with 144 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. We found that the biggest barriers to extreme heat planning and implementation are a lack of perceived risk and a lack of internal staff capacity, and that practitioners would welcome additional heat related information and tools. The two practitioner “needs” that respondents considered to be most impactful are: regularly updated local-scale extreme heat data collection, and improved information about how extreme heat impacts different systems. We found significant differences in the perceived impactfulness of interventions based on whether a respondent was from a rural or urban area and also based on their level of educational attainment.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate-induced extreme heat is deadly and disproportionately impacts lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. People working for local and regional governments are responsible for making decisions and implementing actions to reduce the impacts of extreme heat in their communities. Those tasked with that work are referred to here as heat practitioners. To understand their needs we conducted a series of interviews and a survey that engaged over 140 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. In this paper we share our findings that bring an in-depth understanding of climate service needs specific to those working to protect people from extreme heat.</div><div>An important finding from our work is that climate services cannot be just about more information, there is a need for building adaptive capacity and support to overcome complex barriers. Specifically we see a clear need to address the silos heat practitioners find themselves in. Additionally, by elevating the importance of heat within communities practitioners will have an easier time working to manage and mitigate this threat.</div><div>We find a strong call for better information that is tailored to local contexts. Heat practitioners said that the most impactful thing that would benefit their work is updated local-scale extreme heat data collection and on-the-ground monitoring. Another highly localized data need was information about the relationship between urban design and extreme heat. We also heard that information
{"title":"Too hot to handle: Assessing practitioner climate service needs to advance heat resilience","authors":"K.M. Archie , D. Hirschfeld , S. Meerow , J.C. Arnott , L. Keith , J.A. Vano , E. Mateo","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100606","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100606","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme heat is deadly and it is disproportionately experienced by lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. Heat practitioners are faced with the dual challenges of taking action to mitigate the level of heat experienced by local residents while preparing communities to manage unavoidable levels of elevated warming. In response to a lack of in-depth information about heat practitioner needs, this work aims to advance our understanding of how efforts to improve climate services may contribute to more effective extreme heat planning and decision-making in the United States. Through a two-round, mixed-methods approach that employed group interviews and a survey, we engaged with 144 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. We found that the biggest barriers to extreme heat planning and implementation are a lack of perceived risk and a lack of internal staff capacity, and that practitioners would welcome additional heat related information and tools. The two practitioner “needs” that respondents considered to be most impactful are: regularly updated local-scale extreme heat data collection, and improved information about how extreme heat impacts different systems. We found significant differences in the perceived impactfulness of interventions based on whether a respondent was from a rural or urban area and also based on their level of educational attainment.</div></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><div>Climate-induced extreme heat is deadly and disproportionately impacts lower-income, minority, and marginalized community members. People working for local and regional governments are responsible for making decisions and implementing actions to reduce the impacts of extreme heat in their communities. Those tasked with that work are referred to here as heat practitioners. To understand their needs we conducted a series of interviews and a survey that engaged over 140 heat practitioners from 40 states and Washington, DC. In this paper we share our findings that bring an in-depth understanding of climate service needs specific to those working to protect people from extreme heat.</div><div>An important finding from our work is that climate services cannot be just about more information, there is a need for building adaptive capacity and support to overcome complex barriers. Specifically we see a clear need to address the silos heat practitioners find themselves in. Additionally, by elevating the importance of heat within communities practitioners will have an easier time working to manage and mitigate this threat.</div><div>We find a strong call for better information that is tailored to local contexts. Heat practitioners said that the most impactful thing that would benefit their work is updated local-scale extreme heat data collection and on-the-ground monitoring. Another highly localized data need was information about the relationship between urban design and extreme heat. We also heard that information","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100606"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Crop choice is a critical decision for rainfed smallholder farmers when allocating land between food and cash crops. To inform crop choice, process-based models need to simulate yield responses that are both eco-physiologically plausible and quantitatively accurate. Achieving this is difficult when data quality and scarcity hinder model calibration. Here, we present a modification of a process model simulation performed using a machine learning residual model trained to predict the error in the process model-simulated yields, relative to field experimental data, from growing conditions. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm, residual models were developed for cowpea, groundnut, soybean, maize, millet, and sorghum cultivated at three locations in Burkina Faso. The RF residual models improved the agreement between the process model simulations and the field data while preserving plausible crop-specific rainfall–yield relationships and their variation across soil types with differing water retention or drainage capacities (i.e., Lixisols and Plinthosols). Subsequently, process model simulations for 1994–2023 were adjusted using the RF residual models. The findings showed that the better performing crops varied with respect to soil type and seasonal rainfall. However, the utility of presowing rainfall forecasts for dynamic crop choice was limited by relatively high miss rates. The proposed crop choice advisory is expected to increase the income and nutrient status of smallholder farmers in dryland regions of West Africa under rainfall variability.
{"title":"Crop choice advisory for the West African Sudan Savanna based on soil type and presowing rainfall forecasts: A machine learning residual model approach","authors":"Toshichika Iizumi , Kohtaro Iseki , Kenta Ikazaki , Toru Sakai , Shintaro Kobayashi , Benoit Joseph Batieno","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100605","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100605","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Crop choice is a critical decision for rainfed smallholder farmers when allocating land between food and cash crops. To inform crop choice, process-based models need to simulate yield responses that are both eco-physiologically plausible and quantitatively accurate. Achieving this is difficult when data quality and scarcity hinder model calibration. Here, we present a modification of a process model simulation performed using a machine learning residual model trained to predict the error in the process model-simulated yields, relative to field experimental data, from growing conditions. Using the random forest (RF) algorithm, residual models were developed for cowpea, groundnut, soybean, maize, millet, and sorghum cultivated at three locations in Burkina Faso. The RF residual models improved the agreement between the process model simulations and the field data while preserving plausible crop-specific rainfall–yield relationships and their variation across soil types with differing water retention or drainage capacities (i.e., Lixisols and Plinthosols). Subsequently, process model simulations for 1994–2023 were adjusted using the RF residual models. The findings showed that the better performing crops varied with respect to soil type and seasonal rainfall. However, the utility of presowing rainfall forecasts for dynamic crop choice was limited by relatively high miss rates. The proposed crop choice advisory is expected to increase the income and nutrient status of smallholder farmers in dryland regions of West Africa under rainfall variability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100605"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144863330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-18DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100603
Jiaqi Guo , Linlin Lu , Fukang Zha , Ilias Agathangelidis , Yu Yao , Qingting Li , Qian Shen , Zilu Li
The increasing frequency of extreme heat events has resulted in severe and widespread global impacts. Comprehensive heat risk assessment is crucial for providing targeted climate information and services to enhance cities’ adaptation and mitigation capacities. However, the spatial resolution of administrative-level heat health risk assessments is inadequate for identifying intra-urban risk variations. This study developed a risk assessment framework for heat-related health risks integrating hazard, exposure, susceptibility, and adaptability factors. Utilizing geospatial data such as downscaled land surface temperature, gridded socioeconomic data and point of interest data, the heat health risks were evaluated comprehensively at a fine-grained 500-meter grid resolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. The results indicated that high-risk profiles were concentrated in the primary urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin. Analysis of Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classifications revealed distinct heat risk patterns across urban morphologies. Compact high-rise built zones (LCZ 1) showed the highest mean heat hazard index (0.82), while natural-type LCZ B areas exhibited the lowest (0.48). LCZ 1 (0.68) and LCZ 2 (0.67) represented the highest heat risk, followed by LCZ 4 (0.60) and LCZ 5 (0.57). To mitigate heat risks, priority measures for reducing ambient temperature and population density should be implemented in LCZs 1 and 2 regions, while LCZs 3, 4, and 5 should prioritize enhancements to healthcare and transportation infrastructure. These fine-scale risk assessment approaches effectively capture local-scale risk hotspots, providing actionable insights for improving heat governance practices and building more thermally resilient cities.
{"title":"A grid-scale assessment framework for heat health risks: A case study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, China","authors":"Jiaqi Guo , Linlin Lu , Fukang Zha , Ilias Agathangelidis , Yu Yao , Qingting Li , Qian Shen , Zilu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100603","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100603","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The increasing frequency of extreme heat events has resulted in severe and widespread global impacts. Comprehensive heat risk assessment is crucial for providing targeted climate information and services to enhance cities’ adaptation and mitigation capacities. However, the spatial resolution of administrative-level heat health risk assessments is inadequate for identifying intra-urban risk variations. This study developed a risk assessment framework for heat-related health risks integrating hazard, exposure, susceptibility, and adaptability factors. Utilizing geospatial data such as downscaled land surface temperature, gridded socioeconomic data and point of interest data, the heat health risks were evaluated comprehensively at a fine-grained 500-meter grid resolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China. The results indicated that high-risk profiles were concentrated in the primary urban areas of Beijing and Tianjin. Analysis of Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classifications revealed distinct heat risk patterns across urban morphologies. Compact high-rise built zones (LCZ 1) showed the highest mean heat hazard index (0.82), while natural-type LCZ B areas exhibited the lowest (0.48). LCZ 1 (0.68) and LCZ 2 (0.67) represented the highest heat risk, followed by LCZ 4 (0.60) and LCZ 5 (0.57). To mitigate heat risks, priority measures for reducing ambient temperature and population density should be implemented in LCZs 1 and 2 regions, while LCZs 3, 4, and 5 should prioritize enhancements to healthcare and transportation infrastructure. These fine-scale risk assessment approaches effectively capture local-scale risk hotspots, providing actionable insights for improving heat governance practices and building more thermally resilient cities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"40 ","pages":"Article 100603"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144860894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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