Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100520
Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Asun Lera St Clair , Marina Baldissera Pacchetti , Paula Checchia , Joerg Cortekar , Judith E.M. Klostermann , Werner Krauß , Ángel G. Muñoz , Jaroslav Mysiak , Jorge Paz , Marta Terrado , Andreas Villwock , Mirjana Volarev , Saioa Zorita
Climate services are essential to support climate-sensitive decision making, enabling adaptation to climate change and variability, and mitigate the sources of anthropogenic climate change, while taking into account the values and contexts of those involved. The unregulated nature of climate services can lead to low market performance and lack of quality assurance. Best practices, guidance, and standards serve as a form of governance, ensuring quality, legitimacy, and relevance of climate services. The Climateurope2 project (www.climateurope2.eu) addresses this gap by engaging and supporting an equitable and diverse community of climate services to provide recommendations for their standardisation. Four components of climate services are identified (the decision context, the ecosystem of actors and co-production processes, the multiple knowledge systems involved, and the delivery and evaluation of these services) to facilitate analysis. This has resulted in the identification of nine key messages summarising the susceptibility for the climate services standardisation. The recommendations are shared with relevant standardisation bodies and actors as well as with climate services stakeholders and providers.
{"title":"Standardisation of equitable climate services by supporting a community of practice","authors":"Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Asun Lera St Clair , Marina Baldissera Pacchetti , Paula Checchia , Joerg Cortekar , Judith E.M. Klostermann , Werner Krauß , Ángel G. Muñoz , Jaroslav Mysiak , Jorge Paz , Marta Terrado , Andreas Villwock , Mirjana Volarev , Saioa Zorita","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100520","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100520","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate services are essential to support climate-sensitive decision making, enabling adaptation to climate change and variability, and mitigate the sources of anthropogenic climate change, while taking into account the values and contexts of those involved. The unregulated nature of climate services can lead to low market performance and lack of quality assurance. Best practices, guidance, and standards serve as a form of governance, ensuring quality, legitimacy, and relevance of climate services. The Climateurope2 project (<span><span><u>www.climateurope2.eu</u></span><svg><path></path></svg></span>) addresses this gap by engaging and supporting an equitable and diverse community of climate services to provide recommendations for their standardisation. Four components of climate services are identified (the decision context, the ecosystem of actors and co-production processes, the multiple knowledge systems involved, and the delivery and evaluation of these services) to facilitate analysis. This has resulted in the identification of nine key messages summarising the susceptibility for the climate services standardisation. The recommendations are shared with relevant standardisation bodies and actors as well as with climate services stakeholders and providers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100520"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142534497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100515
Victor M Rodríguez-Moreno , Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes , Juan Estrada-Ávalos , Pedro Félix-Valencia , Ramón Trucíos-Caciano , César Valenzuela-Solano
The Chihuahuan Desert is a distinctive and ecologically diverse region that is particularly susceptible to climate change. To effectively characterize the ecosystem services in this area, access to extensive geospatial data is crucial. Web services have emerged as a powerful solution for querying and downloading large volumes of climate geospatial data. Specifically, the Chihuahuan Desert Web Service (ChDWS) has been developed to streamline access to climate data. This service features an intuitive interface that enables researchers and decision-makers to efficiently query and download substantial datasets related to the region’s climate. With an internet connection, users can access the ChDWS more efficiently and conveniently from anywhere. This enhances the ability of researchers and decision-makers to obtain the data necessary for their studies and assessments. Web services, such as the ChDWS, offer significant advantages in querying and bulk downloading large climate geospatial datasets. They facilitate access to essential data for climate research and assessments, ultimately aiding in the better understanding and management of climate change impacts in the Chihuahuan Desert. By supporting bulk downloads in CSV and GeoTiff formats, web services like the ChDWS streamline data management and facilitate a better understanding and management of climate change impacts in the Chihuahuan Desert.
{"title":"Web-services, the leverage in query and bulk download of big climate geospatial data. Case of study: The Chihuahuan Desert","authors":"Victor M Rodríguez-Moreno , Aldo Rafael Martínez-Sifuentes , Juan Estrada-Ávalos , Pedro Félix-Valencia , Ramón Trucíos-Caciano , César Valenzuela-Solano","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100515","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100515","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Chihuahuan Desert is a distinctive and ecologically diverse region that is particularly susceptible to climate change. To effectively characterize the ecosystem services in this area, access to extensive geospatial data is crucial. Web services have emerged as a powerful solution for querying and downloading large volumes of climate geospatial data. Specifically, the Chihuahuan Desert Web Service (ChDWS) has been developed to streamline access to climate data. This service features an intuitive interface that enables researchers and decision-makers to efficiently query and download substantial datasets related to the region’s climate. With an internet connection, users can access the ChDWS more efficiently and conveniently from anywhere. This enhances the ability of researchers and decision-makers to obtain the data necessary for their studies and assessments. Web services, such as the ChDWS, offer significant advantages in querying and bulk downloading large climate geospatial datasets. They facilitate access to essential data for climate research and assessments, ultimately aiding in the better understanding and management of climate change impacts in the Chihuahuan Desert. By supporting bulk downloads in CSV and GeoTiff formats, web services like the ChDWS streamline data management and facilitate a better understanding and management of climate change impacts in the Chihuahuan Desert.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100515"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142428687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-28DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100519
Wei Liu , Hao Tian , Xingang Xu , Guang Yang
The Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (EBNSTM) is a composite ecosystem with mountains, oases, and desert areas; it also serves as an active area for anthropogenic activities. Frequent changes in soil and water resources have significant impacts on regional ecosystems. However, research on the ecosystem water yield function of EBNSTM is relatively limited; additionally, the spatiotemporal variations in the water supply function based on land use changes have not been sufficiently elucidated. This study aimed to explore the land use changes and the spatial variability of water supply service functions in the region at the macro level and uses the land transfer matrix as an important tool to study the changes in land use in the different years of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Using the InVEST model, we conducted a quantitative assessment and comprehensive study on the water supply function of EBNSTM across the aforementioned years. Additionally, the study delved into the structure of ecosystem service functions, alongside investigating the spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem services under the multi-scale units of administrative divisions, ecological zones, and land classes. We found that during the 20-year period, the area of construction land of EBNSTM increased by 1089 km2, with the highest dynamic change rate of 4.09 %; 2015–2020 period was the most drastic period of change for each land use type. The average multi-year depth of water production was 87.49 mm, totaling 71.59 × 108 m3. The spatial distribution pattern of the water supply function in the study area during the last 20 years consistently exhibited a distinct pattern: mountainous areas displayed the highest water supply capacity, followed by oases, and deserts ranked the lowest. Further, the water supply service function within the study area is currently experiencing a modest rate of increase. The rate of change in water supply depth was 2.76 mm/a, while the rate of change in water supply volume was 0.47 × 108 m3/a. Areas with enhanced water supply capacity are mostly distributed in the southeast of EBNSTM, whereas the northwest, encompassing the mountainous areas, exhibited a declined water supply capacity. Between 2000 and 2020, the water supply capacity in the study area was ranked as follows: woodland > grassland > unutilized land > cultivated land > urban construction land, with woodland displaying the strongest water supply capacity. When woodlands, grasslands, and croplands were converted to other land use types, their water supply functions generally decreased, and vice versa. Our findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of water and soil resources in EBNSTM.
{"title":"Evaluation of water supply function in the Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains based on the InVEST model","authors":"Wei Liu , Hao Tian , Xingang Xu , Guang Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100519","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100519","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Economic Belt of the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (EBNSTM) is a composite ecosystem with mountains, oases, and desert areas; it also serves as an active area for anthropogenic activities. Frequent changes in soil and water resources have significant impacts on regional ecosystems. However, research on the ecosystem water yield function of EBNSTM is relatively limited; additionally, the spatiotemporal variations in the water supply function based on land use changes have not been sufficiently elucidated. This study aimed to explore the land use changes and the spatial variability of water supply service functions in the region at the macro level and uses the land transfer matrix as an important tool to study the changes in land use in the different years of 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Using the InVEST model, we conducted a quantitative assessment and comprehensive study on the water supply function of EBNSTM across the aforementioned years. Additionally, the study delved into the structure of ecosystem service functions, alongside investigating the spatial and temporal variability of ecosystem services under the multi-scale units of administrative divisions, ecological zones, and land classes. We found that during the 20-year period, the area of construction land of EBNSTM increased by 1089 km<sup>2</sup>, with the highest dynamic change rate of 4.09 %; 2015–2020 period was the most drastic period of change for each land use type. The average multi-year depth of water production was 87.49 mm, totaling 71.59 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>. The spatial distribution pattern of the water supply function in the study area during the last 20 years consistently exhibited a distinct pattern: mountainous areas displayed the highest water supply capacity, followed by oases, and deserts ranked the lowest. Further, the water supply service function within the study area is currently experiencing a modest rate of increase. The rate of change in water supply depth was 2.76 mm/a, while the rate of change in water supply volume was 0.47 × 10<sup>8</sup> m<sup>3</sup>/a. Areas with enhanced water supply capacity are mostly distributed in the southeast of EBNSTM, whereas the northwest, encompassing the mountainous areas, exhibited a declined water supply capacity. Between 2000 and 2020, the water supply capacity in the study area was ranked as follows: woodland > grassland > unutilized land > cultivated land > urban construction land, with woodland displaying the strongest water supply capacity. When woodlands, grasslands, and croplands were converted to other land use types, their water supply functions generally decreased, and vice versa. Our findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of water and soil resources in EBNSTM.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100519"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142327829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100517
Mengistie Mossie, Tadsa Chanie
Climate change continues to significantly impact agricultural production in Ethiopia that have encountered several environmental problems in recent decades. The study site is one of the areas vulnerable to climate change and influenced by climate variability. This study intends to identify small-scale farmers’ adaptation options, their perception and existing barriers in northern Ethiopia. It is based on an analysis of cross-sectional data collected from 193 randomly selected farm household heads. A multivariate probit model was employed to analyze the factors influencing farmers’ climate change adaptation choices. Constraint Facing Index (CFI) technique was also constructed to identify the existing barriers. The findings indicate that a significant number of farmers (91.2%) reported a trend toward rising temperatures. Similarly, 86.01% of the farmers indicated that the perceived rainfall trend has decreased. Adjusting planting dates (56.5%), integrated soil fertility management practices (47.7%), early maturing crop varieties (53.4%), terracing for soil and water conservation (54.9%), and income diversification (55.4%) were the most common climate change adaptation options practiced by farm households in the study area. Some of these adaptation options have significant and complementary relationships. The farmer’s choice of adaptation option was highly constrained by institutional factors and all these identified factors can be possibly addressed through a better institutional service provision system, for a better farm-level adaptation while considering demographic characteristics as well.
{"title":"Small-scale farmers perception, adaptation choices to climate change and existing barriers: Evidence from northern Ethiopia","authors":"Mengistie Mossie, Tadsa Chanie","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100517","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100517","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change continues to significantly impact agricultural production in Ethiopia that have encountered several environmental problems in recent decades. The study site is one of the areas vulnerable to climate change and influenced by climate variability. This study intends to identify small-scale farmers’ adaptation options, their perception and existing barriers in northern Ethiopia. It is based on an analysis of cross-sectional data collected from 193 randomly selected farm household heads. A multivariate probit model was employed to analyze the factors influencing farmers’ climate change adaptation choices. Constraint Facing Index (CFI) technique was also constructed to identify the existing barriers. The findings indicate that a significant number of farmers (91.2%) reported a trend toward rising temperatures. Similarly, 86.01% of the farmers indicated that the perceived rainfall trend has decreased. Adjusting planting dates (56.5%), integrated soil fertility management practices (47.7%), early maturing crop varieties (53.4%), terracing for soil and water conservation (54.9%), and income diversification (55.4%) were the most common climate change adaptation options practiced by farm households in the study area. Some of these adaptation options have significant and complementary relationships. The farmer’s choice of adaptation option was highly constrained by institutional factors and all these identified factors can be possibly addressed through a better institutional service provision system, for a better farm-level adaptation while considering demographic characteristics as well.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100517"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142319109","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-22DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518
Pascal Yiou , Robert Vautard , Yoann Robin , Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré , Fabio D’Andrea , Robin Noyelle
Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global mean temperature. In this paper, we address two questions that were asked by the City of Paris to a group of scientists: When does this event start to be likely? What are the prevailing meteorological conditions? We base our study on the CMIP6 simulation ensemble. Many of the CMIP6 yield biases in temperature. Rather than using methods of bias correction, which are not necessarily adapted to high extremes, we propose a pragmatic approach of model selection in order to seek such high temperature events that are deemed realistic. We analyze the meteorological conditions leading to first occurrences of such hot events and their common atmospheric patterns. This paper describes a simple data mining approach (on a large ensemble of climate model simulations) which could be adapted to other regions of the world, in order to help decision makers anticipating and adapting to such devastating meteorological events.
{"title":"How could 50 °C be reached in Paris: Analyzing the CMIP6 ensemble to design storylines for adaptation","authors":"Pascal Yiou , Robert Vautard , Yoann Robin , Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré , Fabio D’Andrea , Robin Noyelle","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100518","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reaching a surface temperature of 50 °C in a heavily populated region, like Paris, would have devastating effects. Although such a high value seems far from the present-day record of 42.6 °C, its occurrence cannot be dismissed by the end of the 21st century, due to the continuous increase of global mean temperature. In this paper, we address two questions that were asked by the City of Paris to a group of scientists: When does this event start to be likely? What are the prevailing meteorological conditions? We base our study on the CMIP6 simulation ensemble. Many of the CMIP6 yield biases in temperature. Rather than using methods of bias correction, which are not necessarily adapted to high extremes, we propose a pragmatic approach of model selection in order to seek such high temperature events that are deemed realistic. We analyze the meteorological conditions leading to first occurrences of such hot events and their common atmospheric patterns. This paper describes a simple data mining approach (on a large ensemble of climate model simulations) which could be adapted to other regions of the world, in order to help decision makers anticipating and adapting to such devastating meteorological events.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100518"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000736/pdfft?md5=78f35562b2fc8ddfa43c0c2e1352fe83&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000736-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142310362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-19DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100516
Darren Lumbroso , Katharine Vincent , Miriam Murambadoro , Anna Steynor , Gina Tsarouchi , Maria Nezi
A central aim of climate services is the design and delivery of information that is tailored and targeted to different decision-making contexts. To assess whether climate services are meeting this aim, it is necessary to take stock of the progress that has been made while also identifying where the gaps and additional needs remain. This paper provides a summary of currently available climate services in South Africa, and details the needs for new climate services, informed by the 10 priority sectors identified as part of the National Framework for Climate Services South Africa (NFCS-SA). South African stakeholders’ needs were assessed via 1,032 responses to surveys and 27 interviews conducted between March 2020 and June 2023. The existing climate services landscape in South Africa is complex. Although a range of climate services have been produced, there remain gaps, as well as the need to improve the way in which climate information is communicated, especially for disadvantaged groups such as low-income farmers. The engagement of beneficiaries in the development of public climate services in South Africa has often been superficial and true co-production has yet to take place. However, meaningful co-production of climate services comes at a cost and it remains to be seen how this challenge can be addressed given that many South African stakeholders perceive weather information as a public good and their willingness to pay for climate services is low.
{"title":"Current uses and potential future needs for climate services in South Africa","authors":"Darren Lumbroso , Katharine Vincent , Miriam Murambadoro , Anna Steynor , Gina Tsarouchi , Maria Nezi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100516","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100516","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>A central aim of climate services is the design and delivery of information that is tailored and targeted to different decision-making contexts. To assess whether climate services are meeting this aim, it is necessary to take stock of the progress that has been made while also identifying where the gaps and additional needs remain. This paper provides a summary of currently available climate services in South Africa, and details the needs for new climate services, informed by the 10 priority sectors identified as part of the National Framework for Climate Services South Africa (NFCS-SA). South African stakeholders’ needs were assessed via 1,032 responses to surveys and 27 interviews conducted between March 2020 and June 2023. The existing climate services landscape in South Africa is complex. Although a range of climate services have been produced, there remain gaps, as well as the need to improve the way in which climate information is communicated, especially for disadvantaged groups such as low-income farmers. The engagement of beneficiaries in the development of public climate services in South Africa has often been superficial and true co-production has yet to take place. However, meaningful co-production of climate services comes at a cost and it remains to be seen how this challenge can be addressed given that many South African stakeholders perceive weather information as a public good and their willingness to pay for climate services is low.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100516"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000712/pdfft?md5=fdce2ff8bc6d8c99040a4909211ba1f5&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000712-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142270711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100513
N. Pérez-Zanón , V. Agudetse , E. Baulenas , P.A. Bretonnière , C. Delgado-Torres , N. González-Reviriego , A. Manrique-Suñén , A. Nicodemou , M. Olid , Ll. Palma , M. Terrado , B. Basile , F. Carteni , A. Dente , C. Ezquerra , F. Oldani , M. Otero , F. Santos-Alves , M. Torres , J. Valente , A. Soret
<div><p>This study describes the process of co-developing an operational climate forecast service for the viticulture sector. Weather and climate conditions affect grapevine development in cultivars: anticipating the atmospheric variables in the coming weeks and months is thus relevant for effectively managing vineyards, as impacts will be felt in wine production, biodiversity, and a wide range of related aspects. The operational service was co-developed with two types of users: impact modellers, who are the intermediary users incorporating climate forecast outputs in phenological and disease models, and end-users from the wine sector with vineyards in various European locations. For the operational service, sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts were tailored considering their needs. The initial steps of the co-production process identified relevant decisions for which the service was essential and co-defined effective ways to deliver the climate information. Afterwards the climate forecasts outputs were integrated with impact model data. Substantial efforts were directed at the harmonisation of climate services information with the decision-making system of end-users. Because end-users need to navigate, comprehend, and select from various alternative options amidst uncertainty, significant emphasis has been placed on crafting the visual representation of the climate service, incorporating interactive elements, and cognitive considerations, thereby enhancing the overall user experience.</p></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><p>Weather and climate conditions affect the development of cultivars: phenological stages, disease risk, or wine quality. This study presents the co-production process for deploying a climate service for vineyard management. The service consists of the near-real-time operational provision of sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts. This service aims to help vineyard managers make decisions by anticipating the climate conditions up to three months in advance for a set of essential climate variables. The service includes the requirements of a set of intermediary users, which are disease risk and phenology researchers who feed their impact models with the provided climate forecasts. To our knowledge, it is the first time that sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts have been integrated into an operational service for vineyard management.</p><p>The service was developed during the VitiGEOSS project, the primary outcome of which is the VitiGEOSS platform: a single entry-point solution for wine producers aiming to boost vineyard sustainability. Three pilot plots are used for the service development: the Douro region in Portugal, the Catalonia region in Spain, and the Campania region in Italy. The co-production is seen as an iterative, interactive and collaborative process that brings together a plurality of knowledge sources to mutually define problems and develop usable products to address these problems. The
{"title":"Lessons learned from the co-development of operational climate forecast services for vineyards management","authors":"N. Pérez-Zanón , V. Agudetse , E. Baulenas , P.A. Bretonnière , C. Delgado-Torres , N. González-Reviriego , A. Manrique-Suñén , A. Nicodemou , M. Olid , Ll. Palma , M. Terrado , B. Basile , F. Carteni , A. Dente , C. Ezquerra , F. Oldani , M. Otero , F. Santos-Alves , M. Torres , J. Valente , A. Soret","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100513","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100513","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study describes the process of co-developing an operational climate forecast service for the viticulture sector. Weather and climate conditions affect grapevine development in cultivars: anticipating the atmospheric variables in the coming weeks and months is thus relevant for effectively managing vineyards, as impacts will be felt in wine production, biodiversity, and a wide range of related aspects. The operational service was co-developed with two types of users: impact modellers, who are the intermediary users incorporating climate forecast outputs in phenological and disease models, and end-users from the wine sector with vineyards in various European locations. For the operational service, sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts were tailored considering their needs. The initial steps of the co-production process identified relevant decisions for which the service was essential and co-defined effective ways to deliver the climate information. Afterwards the climate forecasts outputs were integrated with impact model data. Substantial efforts were directed at the harmonisation of climate services information with the decision-making system of end-users. Because end-users need to navigate, comprehend, and select from various alternative options amidst uncertainty, significant emphasis has been placed on crafting the visual representation of the climate service, incorporating interactive elements, and cognitive considerations, thereby enhancing the overall user experience.</p></div><div><h3>Practical implications</h3><p>Weather and climate conditions affect the development of cultivars: phenological stages, disease risk, or wine quality. This study presents the co-production process for deploying a climate service for vineyard management. The service consists of the near-real-time operational provision of sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts. This service aims to help vineyard managers make decisions by anticipating the climate conditions up to three months in advance for a set of essential climate variables. The service includes the requirements of a set of intermediary users, which are disease risk and phenology researchers who feed their impact models with the provided climate forecasts. To our knowledge, it is the first time that sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts have been integrated into an operational service for vineyard management.</p><p>The service was developed during the VitiGEOSS project, the primary outcome of which is the VitiGEOSS platform: a single entry-point solution for wine producers aiming to boost vineyard sustainability. Three pilot plots are used for the service development: the Douro region in Portugal, the Catalonia region in Spain, and the Campania region in Italy. The co-production is seen as an iterative, interactive and collaborative process that brings together a plurality of knowledge sources to mutually define problems and develop usable products to address these problems. The ","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100513"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000682/pdfft?md5=99ed15752258a7245dc9c67a845f81b3&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000682-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142121810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-29DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100514
Erin Coughlan de Perez , Weston Anderson , Eunjin Han , Gibbon Innocent Tirivanhu Masukwedza , Ntlele Mphonyane
People have known that El Niño events are associated with low rainfall in Southern Africa for a century, and seasonal rainfall forecasts are now available in agricultural advisories for farmers. While there is abundant theory as to how farmers might (or should) use seasonal rainfall information on their farms, little is known about whether this information has been widely used or has had widespread benefit. In this study, we use subnational data on cropping area and yield to see if we can detect any macro-level patterns in agricultural choices or outcomes that are related to knowledge of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or seasonal forecast information in Southern Africa. We find that in Lesotho and parts of South Africa, planted area of maize and sorghum is reduced when there is a dry start to the season and an El Niño event is apparent at the time of planting. Similarly, we find that in both Lesotho and most provinces of South Africa, drought years associated with El Niño have worse yields than drought years that are not associated with El Niño (controlling for rainfall). This association could indicate that people are discouraged during El Niño years by the potential for drought, and they might be reducing cropping area, reducing agricultural investments, or turning to other income-generating activities. We are unable to detect a relationship between yields and the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts, therefore we are unable to observe any additional yield benefit when more accurate seasonal forecast information is available.
{"title":"Detectable use of ENSO information on crop production in Southern Africa","authors":"Erin Coughlan de Perez , Weston Anderson , Eunjin Han , Gibbon Innocent Tirivanhu Masukwedza , Ntlele Mphonyane","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100514","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100514","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>People have known that El Niño events are associated with low rainfall in Southern Africa for a century, and seasonal rainfall forecasts are now available in agricultural advisories for farmers. While there is abundant theory as to how farmers might (or should) use seasonal rainfall information on their farms, little is known about whether this information has been widely used or has had widespread benefit. In this study, we use subnational data on cropping area and yield to see if we can detect any macro-level patterns in agricultural choices or outcomes that are related to knowledge of the El Niño Southern Oscillation or seasonal forecast information in Southern Africa. We find that in Lesotho and parts of South Africa, planted area of maize and sorghum is reduced when there is a dry start to the season and an El Niño event is apparent at the time of planting. Similarly, we find that in both Lesotho and most provinces of South Africa, drought years associated with El Niño have worse yields than drought years that are not associated with El Niño (controlling for rainfall). This association could indicate that people are discouraged during El Niño years by the potential for drought, and they might be reducing cropping area, reducing agricultural investments, or turning to other income-generating activities. We are unable to detect a relationship between yields and the accuracy of seasonal rainfall forecasts, therefore we are unable to observe any additional yield benefit when more accurate seasonal forecast information is available.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100514"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000694/pdfft?md5=9c87d1705822baba8a40f4c1cef12f03&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000694-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142098458","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100512
Alice Crespi , Anna Napoli , Gaia Galassi , Marco Lazzeri , Antonio Parodi , Dino Zardi , Massimiliano Pittore
Acknowledging the increasing urgency of climate change, many local administrations, in Italy as well as abroad, are currently elaborating their own adaptation strategy. A key step of this process is understanding the current climate, past variability and ongoing trends. Combined with the analysis of vulnerable and exposed elements, it supports the identification of key climatic impacts and risks for the territory and the elaboration of future scenarios. Several climatic datasets are available for this purpose, ranging from station observations to interpolated products and to model reanalyses, each with its own features. The study aimed to shed light on these differences and thus help practitioners make better, more informed decisions. Three gridded datasets, offering global, European and national coverage, were compared to derive a local characterization of mean climatic features, recent trends and climate extremes for the Marche Region (Central Italy). The assessment was based on temperature and precipitation variables from the global reanalysis ERA5-Land, the European observation dataset E-OBS, and the high-resolution reanalysis dynamically downscaled for Italy VHR-REA_IT. The analysis showed that large-scale products such as E-OBS and ERA5-Land can still represent a robust complement for adaptation planning. However, important limitations in describing spatial and temporal patterns need to be properly accounted for in the decision-making process. Only an integrative approach based on a multi-source data evaluation would properly address the multi-faceted aspects of climate variability on a regional scale, derive a more comprehensive analysis of past and current conditions and better manage the underlying uncertainty.
{"title":"Leveraging observations and model reanalyses to support regional climate change adaptation activities: An integrated assessment for the Marche Region (Central Italy)","authors":"Alice Crespi , Anna Napoli , Gaia Galassi , Marco Lazzeri , Antonio Parodi , Dino Zardi , Massimiliano Pittore","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100512","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100512","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Acknowledging the increasing urgency of climate change, many local administrations, in Italy as well as abroad, are currently elaborating their own adaptation strategy. A key step of this process is understanding the current climate, past variability and ongoing trends. Combined with the analysis of vulnerable and exposed elements, it supports the identification of key climatic impacts and risks for the territory and the elaboration of future scenarios. Several climatic datasets are available for this purpose, ranging from station observations to interpolated products and to model reanalyses, each with its own features. The study aimed to shed light on these differences and thus help practitioners make better, more informed decisions. Three gridded datasets, offering global, European and national coverage, were compared to derive a local characterization of mean climatic features, recent trends and climate extremes for the Marche Region (Central Italy). The assessment was based on temperature and precipitation variables from the global reanalysis ERA5-Land, the European observation dataset E-OBS, and the high-resolution reanalysis dynamically downscaled for Italy VHR-REA_IT. The analysis showed that large-scale products such as E-OBS and ERA5-Land can still represent a robust complement for adaptation planning. However, important limitations in describing spatial and temporal patterns need to be properly accounted for in the decision-making process. Only an integrative approach based on a multi-source data evaluation would properly address the multi-faceted aspects of climate variability on a regional scale, derive a more comprehensive analysis of past and current conditions and better manage the underlying uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"36 ","pages":"Article 100512"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000670/pdfft?md5=72c3186ebb0397acaa6bad4f24d6fe03&pid=1-s2.0-S2405880724000670-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142083184","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100503
S. Bharwani , Å. Gerger Swartling , K. André , T.F. Santos Santos , A. Salamanca , N. Biskupska , T. Takama , L. Järnberg , A. Liu
This study tests, empirically validates and refines the Tandem framework for co-designing climate services(Daniels et al., 2019, Daniels et al., 2020), to enhance its applicability and effectiveness. Intended as an inspirational guide for ‘good practice’, Tandem is practical and non-prescriptive and is designed to be tailored to context. We apply Tandem in three different geographic and socioeconomic settings: 1) a rural community in Indonesia, where smallholder farmers are confronting climate impacts on agriculture; 2) two cities in Sweden, where planners are addressing climate-related flooding and heat stress; and 3) communities and institutions in a Colombian river basin, where climate change is leading to water scarcity, raising questions about equitable use. We find that Tandem was effective in these settings in: 1) moving from ‘useful’ to ‘usable’ information by building trust; 2) increasing institutional embedding through strengthened relationships and networks; 3) improving climate information uptake and use; 4) increasing capacity, confidence and a shared understanding of climate information by users, and the decision context by providers; and, 5) serving as a non-prescriptive guide for users, intermediaries and providers to co-design and structure an effective process for collaborative learning and action. We use insights from these case studies to enhance the original framework, enabling it to 1) scope and review climate and non-climate vulnerability and risks; 2) incorporate gender, social equity and power considerations; 3) acknowledge the value of local and traditional ecological knowledge; 4) co-explore horizontal and vertical governance at appropriate decision-making scales; and, 5) provide flexible starting points, with early identification of impact indicators.
{"title":"Co-designing in Tandem: Case study journeys to inspire and guide climate services","authors":"S. Bharwani , Å. Gerger Swartling , K. André , T.F. Santos Santos , A. Salamanca , N. Biskupska , T. Takama , L. Järnberg , A. Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100503","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100503","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This study tests, empirically validates and refines the Tandem framework for co-designing climate services(<span><span>Daniels et al., 2019</span></span>, <span><span>Daniels et al., 2020</span></span>), to enhance its applicability and effectiveness. Intended as an inspirational guide for ‘good practice’, Tandem is practical and non-prescriptive and is designed to be tailored to context. We apply Tandem in three different geographic and socioeconomic settings: 1) a rural community in Indonesia, where smallholder farmers are confronting climate impacts on agriculture; 2) two cities in Sweden, where planners are addressing climate-related flooding and heat stress; and 3) communities and institutions in a Colombian river basin, where climate change is leading to water scarcity, raising questions about equitable use. We find that Tandem was effective in these settings in: 1) moving from ‘useful’ to ‘usable’ information by building trust; 2) increasing institutional embedding through strengthened relationships and networks; 3) improving climate information uptake and use; 4) increasing capacity, confidence and a shared understanding of climate information by users, and the decision context by providers; and, 5) serving as a non-prescriptive guide for users, intermediaries and providers to co-design and structure an effective process for collaborative learning and action. We use insights from these case studies to enhance the original framework, enabling it to 1) scope and review climate and non-climate vulnerability and risks; 2) incorporate gender, social equity and power considerations; 3) acknowledge the value of local and traditional ecological knowledge; 4) co-explore horizontal and vertical governance at appropriate decision-making scales; and, 5) provide flexible starting points, with early identification of impact indicators.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"35 ","pages":"Article 100503"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072400058X/pdfft?md5=f53360fa2c3f2bd724c590e364a64424&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072400058X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141951971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号