Pub Date : 2025-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100600
Ponsian T. Sewando
In Tanzania, agro-pastoral practices have evolved as a response to climate variability. However, the economic evaluation of adaptation strategies in these systems is limited. This case study explores the cost-effectiveness of various climate adaptation strategies adopted by agro-pastoralists in the semi-arid regions of northern and central Tanzania. Using primary data from 411 households, the study applied cost-benefit analysis (CBA) tools including net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and internal rate of return (IRR) to assess planned adaptation versus business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. Results highlight that crop diversification, drought-tolerant crops, micro-catchment rainwater harvesting (MCRWH), drip irrigation, and livestock diversification are economically viable strategies under changing climatic conditions. This study provides practical insights into how agro-pastoralists can improve climate resilience through locally adapted strategies.
{"title":"Climate-proofing agriculture: economic feasibility of adaptation strategies for agro-pastoral farmers in Tanzania","authors":"Ponsian T. Sewando","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100600","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100600","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In Tanzania, agro-pastoral practices have evolved as a response to climate variability. However, the economic evaluation of adaptation strategies in these systems is limited. This case study explores the cost-effectiveness of various climate adaptation strategies adopted by agro-pastoralists in the semi-arid regions of northern and central Tanzania. Using primary data from 411 households, the study applied cost-benefit analysis (CBA) tools including net present value (NPV), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and internal rate of return (IRR) to assess planned adaptation versus business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios. Results highlight that crop diversification, drought-tolerant crops, micro-catchment rainwater harvesting (MCRWH), drip irrigation, and livestock diversification are economically viable strategies under changing climatic conditions. This study provides practical insights into how agro-pastoralists can improve climate resilience through locally adapted strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100600"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144770547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100599
Jesmin Akhter , Muhammad Ramzan Ali , Foezullah Talukder , Sheikh Mohammad Sayem
This paper presents the findings of a systematic literature review on coastal climatic stress, adaptation strategies, and the challenges of adapting to climate variability in coastal Bangladesh. The review aims to summarize the existing research on adaptation actions addressing climate change and to explore thematic studies related to these adaptation efforts with the purpose of providing directions for future research scope in coastal Bangladesh. The review adhered to the systematic methods outlined in the Preferred Items for Systematic Review Recommendations (PRISMA) protocol, facilitating a comprehensive synthesis, evaluation, and tracking of scientific literature on agricultural adaptation strategies in coastal Bangladesh. Peer-reviewed articles and grey literature from the Scopus and Google Scholar databases spanning 2015 to 2023 were considered. Through the rigorous application of the four main stages of a systematic review—identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion—a total of 60 articles were selected. The adaptation actions highlighted in the review several significant challenges to agricultural adaptation in coastal regions.. This review finds the thematic studies on agricultural adaptation strategies in coastal Bangladesh, focusing on the strategies employed, the challenges, the outcomes, and the key drivers influencing their adoption. It also identifies gaps in the study of gender roles and relations that influence the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and the expected outcomes of these actions’ impact on life and livelihood to coastal farmers. Further studies are needed to explore these aspects to ensure equitable and significant adaptation outcomes.
{"title":"Agricultural adaptation actions to address climate change in the coastal region of Bangladesh: A systematic review","authors":"Jesmin Akhter , Muhammad Ramzan Ali , Foezullah Talukder , Sheikh Mohammad Sayem","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100599","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100599","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the findings of a systematic literature review on coastal climatic stress, adaptation strategies, and the challenges of adapting to climate variability in coastal Bangladesh. The review aims to summarize the existing research on adaptation actions addressing climate change and to explore thematic studies related to these adaptation efforts with the purpose of providing directions for future research scope in coastal Bangladesh. The review adhered to the systematic methods outlined in the Preferred Items for Systematic Review Recommendations (PRISMA) protocol, facilitating a comprehensive synthesis, evaluation, and tracking of scientific literature on agricultural adaptation strategies in coastal Bangladesh. Peer-reviewed articles and grey literature from the Scopus and Google Scholar databases spanning 2015 to 2023 were considered. Through the rigorous application of the four main stages of a systematic review—identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion—a total of 60 articles were selected. The adaptation actions highlighted in the review several significant challenges to agricultural adaptation in coastal regions.. This review finds the thematic studies on agricultural adaptation strategies in coastal Bangladesh, focusing on the strategies employed, the challenges, the outcomes, and the key drivers influencing their adoption. It also identifies gaps in the study of gender roles and relations that influence the effectiveness of adaptation strategies and the expected outcomes of these actions’ impact on life and livelihood to coastal farmers. Further studies are needed to explore these aspects to ensure equitable and significant adaptation outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100599"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144781673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-01DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100576
Oladimeji Idowu Oladele, Mjabuliseni Simon C. Ngidi
{"title":"Corrigendum to “A content analysis of actionable guidelines for Climate-Smart agriculture implementation in South Africa- communication for behavioral changes” [Clim. Serv. 38 (2025) 100541]","authors":"Oladimeji Idowu Oladele, Mjabuliseni Simon C. Ngidi","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100576","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100576","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100576"},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144831000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-26DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100595
Clara Linés , Micha Werner
Seasonal forecasts of water availability have clear potential benefit for decisions in irrigated agriculture. This potential depends in part on how accurate the information provided is. The actual benefit, however, depends on how the information is used in the decisions, by whom, and the outcome of those decisions. In this paper we assess how useful seasonal forecasts are in supporting drought management decisions by farmers at the irrigation district level. We model the decisions irrigated farmers make on what and when to plant in the Ebro basin (Spain), and the interconnected decisions reservoir operators make on whether to apply curtailments to the water allocated to farmers. The modelled farmers are supplied from a reservoir with capacity for a single irrigation season and therefore their decisions are conditioned by the expected water availability through to the end of the season. Different farmer behaviours are considered as a function of their risk averseness and their technical capacity. The value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to inform these decisions is compared against that of current practice using extrapolated historical records, as well as against a reference forecast based on climatology. Results show that seasonal forecasts of water availability have skill, albeit limited. How salient information is to the decisions that farmers make, however, differs for each type of farmer as they take key decisions at different points in the season. As a consequence, seasonal forecast information is found to not serve the various farmer types considered equally. Our results illustrate how assessing the usefulness of information to servicing a decision can be approached from a combined technical and user-centric perspective.
{"title":"How useful are seasonal forecasts for farmers facing drought? A user-based modelling approach","authors":"Clara Linés , Micha Werner","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100595","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100595","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Seasonal forecasts of water availability have clear potential benefit for decisions in irrigated agriculture. This potential depends in part on how accurate the information provided is. The actual benefit, however, depends on how the information is used in the decisions, by whom, and the outcome of those decisions. In this paper we assess how useful seasonal forecasts are in supporting drought management decisions by farmers at the irrigation district level. We model the decisions irrigated farmers make on what and when to plant in the Ebro basin (Spain), and the interconnected decisions reservoir operators make on whether to apply curtailments to the water allocated to farmers. The modelled farmers are supplied from a reservoir with capacity for a single irrigation season and therefore their decisions are conditioned by the expected water availability through to the end of the season. Different farmer behaviours are considered as a function of their risk averseness and their technical capacity. The value of seasonal streamflow forecasts to inform these decisions is compared against that of current practice using extrapolated historical records, as well as against a reference forecast based on climatology. Results show that seasonal forecasts of water availability have skill, albeit limited. How salient information is to the decisions that farmers make, however, differs for each type of farmer as they take key decisions at different points in the season. As a consequence, seasonal forecast information is found to not serve the various farmer types considered equally. Our results illustrate how assessing the usefulness of information to servicing a decision can be approached from a combined technical and user-centric perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100595"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144704769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-18DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100598
Reshma Akter, Mohummed Shofi Ullah Mazumder
Agriculture in Bangladesh’s coastal region is persistently affected by waterlogging, yet limited knowledge exists about the specific adaptation strategies farmers employ to mitigate its effects. This study aims to identify waterlogging-specific adaptation strategies and the factors influencing their adoption among coastal farmers. A cross-sectional survey of 412 farmers in Zianagar and Morrelganj sub-districts in Pirojpur district was conducted, employing descriptive statistics, multivariate logistic regression, and structural equation modeling (SEM) for data analysis. Common strategies included early planting (74.8 %), elevated trellis platform (69.9 %), duck rearing (60.9 %), short-duration water-tolerant crops (57.8 %), and raised bed farming (55.8 %). Around 16.3 % of farmers adopted four strategies, while 16 % adopted five. SEM results show training significantly promotes early planting (β = 0.02), floating agriculture (β = 0.07), salt-tolerant crops (β = 0.04), raised bed farming (β = 0.03), short-duration water-tolerant crops (β = 0.02), high bed–low ditch system (β = 0.02), crop zoning (β = 0.05), and community group participation (β = 0.02). Farming experience positively influences the adoption of short-duration water-tolerant crops (β = 0.01). Larger farm size is positively associated with elevated trellis platform (β = 0.11), high bed–low ditch system (β = 0.14), embankments (β = 0.1), and fish farming (β = 0.12), while negatively associated with duck rearing (β = -0.31). Agricultural extension contact enhances community group participation (β = 0.02). The study highlights that training, income, farm size, farming experience, and agricultural extension contact are key drivers of diverse waterlogging adaptation strategies among coastal farmers. These findings provide actionable insights for designing targeted agricultural training, resource allocation, and policy interventions to strengthen climate resilience in coastal farming communities.
{"title":"Adaptation strategies to waterlogging among coastal farmers in Bangladesh: Practices, determinants, and implications for resilient agriculture","authors":"Reshma Akter, Mohummed Shofi Ullah Mazumder","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100598","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100598","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Agriculture in Bangladesh’s coastal region is persistently affected by waterlogging, yet limited knowledge exists about the specific adaptation strategies farmers employ to mitigate its effects. This study aims to identify waterlogging-specific adaptation strategies and the factors influencing their adoption among coastal farmers. A cross-sectional survey of 412 farmers in Zianagar and Morrelganj sub-districts in Pirojpur district was conducted, employing descriptive statistics, multivariate logistic regression, and structural equation modeling (SEM) for data analysis. Common strategies included early planting (74.8 %), elevated trellis platform (69.9 %), duck rearing (60.9 %), short-duration water-tolerant crops (57.8 %), and raised bed farming (55.8 %). Around 16.3 % of farmers adopted four strategies, while 16 % adopted five. SEM results show training significantly promotes early planting (β = 0.02), floating agriculture (β = 0.07), salt-tolerant crops (β = 0.04), raised bed farming (β = 0.03), short-duration water-tolerant crops (β = 0.02), high bed–low ditch system (β = 0.02), crop zoning (β = 0.05), and community group participation (β = 0.02). Farming experience positively influences the adoption of short-duration water-tolerant crops (β = 0.01). Larger farm size is positively associated with elevated trellis platform (β = 0.11), high bed–low ditch system (β = 0.14), embankments (β = 0.1), and fish farming (β = 0.12), while negatively associated with duck rearing (β = -0.31). Agricultural extension contact enhances community group participation (β = 0.02). The study highlights that training, income, farm size, farming experience, and agricultural extension contact are key drivers of diverse waterlogging adaptation strategies among coastal farmers. These findings provide actionable insights for designing targeted agricultural training, resource allocation, and policy interventions to strengthen climate resilience in coastal farming communities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100598"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144662491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-17DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100597
Israel Gebresilasie Kimo , Tewodros Addisu Yate , Bisrat Elias Cholo , Thomas Torora Minda , Esatu Bekele Bayde
Ethiopia relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making its agricultural sector highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Adaptation strategies informed by projections of future climate conditions can help mitigate these impacts effectively. This study demonstrates how a science-based approach, specifically the climate analogues methodology, can be used to envision site-specific future agricultural conditions and identify potential adaptation strategies. While such approaches have been increasingly applied elsewhere, their use in Ethiopia remains limited. Therefore, this study applies the analogues tool developed by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program to identify a site whose current climate is analogues to the future climate of the study areas—Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke Districts, aiming to highlight potential adaptation pathways. The result shows that Key-Afer and Boreda in Ethiopia, as well as Migori and Narok counties in Kenya, are analogue sites to Arba Minch Zuria. Furthermore, Dita Zada and Chencha in Ethiopia are analogue sites to Bonke. Farmers in Key-Afer analogue site engage in various climate response strategies, including planting different crop varieties (90.7 %), changing planting dates (51.8 %), and soil and water conservation measures (46.3 %). Moreover, farmers in Migori County, Kenya, analogue site apply mixed farming (96.5 %), non-intensive dairying (95.1 %), and establish their own feed (92.4 %). Understanding current climatic conditions and agricultural practices in these analogue areas can inform adaptation planning, as they provide a glimpse into the future conditions of the study area. The findings of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers and the scientific community aiming to design effective climate change adaptation strategies.
{"title":"Exploring climate change adaptation pathways for the agricultural sector in Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke districts: Based on CCAFS climate analogue tool","authors":"Israel Gebresilasie Kimo , Tewodros Addisu Yate , Bisrat Elias Cholo , Thomas Torora Minda , Esatu Bekele Bayde","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ethiopia relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture, making its agricultural sector highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. Adaptation strategies informed by projections of future climate conditions can help mitigate these impacts effectively. This study demonstrates how a science-based approach, specifically the climate analogues methodology, can be used to envision site-specific future agricultural conditions and identify potential adaptation strategies. While such approaches have been increasingly applied elsewhere, their use in Ethiopia remains limited. Therefore, this study applies the analogues tool developed by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) program to identify a site whose current climate is analogues to the future climate of the study areas—Arba Minch Zuria and Bonke Districts, aiming to highlight potential adaptation pathways. The result shows that Key-Afer and Boreda in Ethiopia, as well as<!--> <!-->Migori and Narok counties in Kenya, are analogue sites to Arba Minch Zuria. Furthermore, Dita Zada and Chencha in Ethiopia are analogue sites to Bonke. Farmers in Key-Afer analogue site engage in various climate response strategies, including planting different crop varieties (90.7 %), changing planting dates (51.8 %), and soil and water conservation measures (46.3 %). Moreover, farmers in Migori County, Kenya, analogue site apply mixed farming (96.5 %), non-intensive dairying (95.1 %), and establish their own feed (92.4 %). Understanding current climatic conditions and agricultural practices in these analogue areas can inform adaptation planning, as they provide a glimpse into the future conditions of the study area. The findings of this research offer valuable insights for policymakers and the scientific community aiming to design effective climate change adaptation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100597"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144655743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-15DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594
Etienne Dunn-Sigouin , Erik W. Kolstad , C. Ole Wulff , Douglas J. Parker , Richard J. Keane
Forecasts are essential for climate adaptation and preparedness, such as in early warning systems and impact models. A key limitation to their practical use is often their coarse spatial grid spacing. However, another less frequently discussed but crucial limitation is that forecasts are often more precise than they are accurate when their grid spacing is finer than the scales they can accurately predict. Here, we adapt the fractions skill score, a metric conventionally used to quantify spatial forecast accuracy by the meteorological community, to help users navigate the trade-off between forecast accuracy versus precision. We demonstrate how this trade-off can be visualized for daily European precipitation, focusing on deterministic predictions of anomalies and probabilistic predictions of extremes, derived from three years of sub-seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our results show that decreasing precision through spatial aggregation increases forecast accuracy, extends predictable lead times, and enhances the maximum possible accuracy relative to the grid scale, while increased precision diminishes these benefits. Notably, spatial aggregation benefits daily-accumulated forecasts more than weekly-accumulated ones, per unit lead-time. We demonstrate the practical value of our approach in three examples: communicating early warnings, managing hydropower capacity, and commercial aviation planning—each characterized by distinct user constraints on accuracy, spatial scale, or lead-time. The results suggest a different approach for using forecasts; post-processing forecasts to focus on the most accurate scales rather than the default grid scale, thus offering users more actionable information.
{"title":"Balancing accuracy versus precision: Enhancing the usability of sub-seasonal forecasts","authors":"Etienne Dunn-Sigouin , Erik W. Kolstad , C. Ole Wulff , Douglas J. Parker , Richard J. Keane","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100594","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Forecasts are essential for climate adaptation and preparedness, such as in early warning systems and impact models. A key limitation to their practical use is often their coarse spatial grid spacing. However, another less frequently discussed but crucial limitation is that forecasts are often more precise than they are accurate when their grid spacing is finer than the scales they can accurately predict. Here, we adapt the fractions skill score, a metric conventionally used to quantify spatial forecast accuracy by the meteorological community, to help users navigate the trade-off between forecast accuracy versus precision. We demonstrate how this trade-off can be visualized for daily European precipitation, focusing on deterministic predictions of anomalies and probabilistic predictions of extremes, derived from three years of sub-seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Our results show that decreasing precision through spatial aggregation increases forecast accuracy, extends predictable lead times, and enhances the maximum possible accuracy relative to the grid scale, while increased precision diminishes these benefits. Notably, spatial aggregation benefits daily-accumulated forecasts more than weekly-accumulated ones, per unit lead-time. We demonstrate the practical value of our approach in three examples: communicating early warnings, managing hydropower capacity, and commercial aviation planning—each characterized by distinct user constraints on accuracy, spatial scale, or lead-time. The results suggest a different approach for using forecasts; post-processing forecasts to focus on the most accurate scales rather than the default grid scale, thus offering users more actionable information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100594"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144631717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-09DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100589
Timothy J. Krupnik , José Mauricio Cunha Fernandes , Felipe Vargas , Emerson Medeiros Del Ponte , Khaled Hossain , Mustafa Kamal , Mutasim Billah , Md. Harun-Or-Rashid , Sk. Ghulam Hussain , Pawan Kumar Singh , Krishna Kanta Roy , Carlos Augusto Pizolotto , Md. Shah Kamal Khan , Willingthon Pavan , Golam Faruq
We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was guided by stakeholder input on the design, testing, and refinement of the EWS from agricultural extension organizations, meteorological departments, and farmers’ groups in Bangladesh and Brazil, where concerns about blast disease risks are high. The UCD process led to a wheat blast disease prediction model, server systems, and user-facing enhancements, including an open-source dashboard (https://beattheblastews.net/) that displays historical, real-time, and forecasted weather data, along with geographically explicit disease predictions, to support informed decision-making on wheat blast management. We describe the back- and front-end design of the dashboard, which supports disease risk forecasting, hindcasting, and the dissemination of early warning advisories co-designed with user organizations. We validated the EWS through comparisons with field observations in both countries. Model results generally agreed with disease incidence records, and model hindcasting confirmed alignment with disease outbreak patterns in Bangladesh and Brazil. Collaboration between agricultural research, meteorological and extension organizations in developing and supplying weather forecasts, disease management advisories, and early warning systems—along with presenting hindcast validation results to stakeholders—led to the formal endorsement of the EWS in both countries. This process also enabled the registration and training of over 14,500 extension officers, lead farmers, and farmers' cooperative members who now receive advisories via email, SMS, agro-meteorological bulletins, smartphone applications, WhatsApp and social media messages. These tools support them in interpreting and sharing wheat blast early warnings with farmers to improve disease preparadness and management actions in both countries.
{"title":"A weather-forecast driven early warning system for wheat blast disease: User-centered design, validation, and scaling in Bangladesh and Brazil","authors":"Timothy J. Krupnik , José Mauricio Cunha Fernandes , Felipe Vargas , Emerson Medeiros Del Ponte , Khaled Hossain , Mustafa Kamal , Mutasim Billah , Md. Harun-Or-Rashid , Sk. Ghulam Hussain , Pawan Kumar Singh , Krishna Kanta Roy , Carlos Augusto Pizolotto , Md. Shah Kamal Khan , Willingthon Pavan , Golam Faruq","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100589","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100589","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We describe the user-centered design (UCD) of a numerical weather-forecast-driven early warning system (EWS) as a climate service for managing wheat blast, a fungal disease capable of causing complete crop yield losses that is strongly dependent on weather conditions. Our mixed-methods process was guided by stakeholder input on the design, testing, and refinement of the EWS from agricultural extension organizations, meteorological departments, and farmers’ groups in Bangladesh and Brazil, where concerns about blast disease risks are high. The UCD process led to a wheat blast disease prediction model, server systems, and user-facing enhancements, including an open-source dashboard (<span><span>https://beattheblastews.net/</span><svg><path></path></svg></span>) that displays historical, real-time, and forecasted weather data, along with geographically explicit disease predictions, to support informed decision-making on wheat blast management. We describe the back- and front-end design of the dashboard, which supports disease risk forecasting, hindcasting, and the dissemination of early warning advisories co-designed with user organizations. We validated the EWS through comparisons with field observations in both countries. Model results generally agreed with disease incidence records, and model hindcasting confirmed alignment with disease outbreak patterns in Bangladesh and Brazil. Collaboration between agricultural research, meteorological and extension organizations in developing and supplying weather forecasts, disease management advisories, and early warning systems—along with presenting hindcast validation results to stakeholders—led to the formal endorsement of the EWS in both countries. This process also enabled the registration and training of over 14,500 extension officers, lead farmers, and farmers' cooperative members who now receive advisories via email, SMS, agro-meteorological bulletins, smartphone applications, WhatsApp and social media messages. These tools support them in interpreting and sharing wheat blast early warnings with farmers to improve disease preparadness and management actions in both countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100589"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589178","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-09DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100596
Peng Wei , Huichun Ye , Chaojia Nie , Minghao Qin , Yue Zhang , Hongye Wang , Shanyu Huang , Ronghao Liu
Waterlogging and flood disasters, often induced by persistent heavy precipitation, present additional hurdles to China’s agricultural resilience.. Assessing the impact of waterlogging disasters on crops is an essential basis for guiding agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and is of great importance for stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring food security. Taking Sanjiang Plain as the research area, this paper selected five indicators including cumulative precipitation, topography, river network, crop type, and crop vulnerability from three aspects: the risk of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of the disaster-bearing environment, and the vulnerability of the carrier. A waterlogging impact evaluation index system was constructed, and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the impact of crop waterlogging disasters from 2020 to 2022. The evaluation results were then verified using crop yield data. The results show that the absolute correlation coefficients (|r|) between the mean values of the composite index of waterlogging and flood influence and yields per unit area for rice, maize, and soybean were 0.69, 0.74, and 0.71, respectively. These findings highlight the accuracy of the assessment index system for crop waterlogging and flood impacts. Over time, there were noticeable fluctuations in the contribution of disaster-causing factors and the disaster-breeding environment that breed them. Spatially, the contributions of disaster-causing factors and the disaster-breeding environment were unevenly distributed, whereas the impact on the carrier remained concentrated. Consistent with natural patterns, the results of this study provide essential technical support for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, aiding the sustainable development of agriculture in the Sanjiang Plain.
{"title":"Evaluating the impact of crop waterlogging and flood disasters using multi-source data: a case study of the Sanjiang Plain","authors":"Peng Wei , Huichun Ye , Chaojia Nie , Minghao Qin , Yue Zhang , Hongye Wang , Shanyu Huang , Ronghao Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100596","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100596","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Waterlogging and flood disasters, often induced by persistent heavy precipitation, present additional hurdles to China’s agricultural resilience.. Assessing the impact of waterlogging disasters on crops is an essential basis for guiding agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and is of great importance for stabilizing agricultural production and ensuring food security. Taking Sanjiang Plain as the research area, this paper selected five indicators including cumulative precipitation, topography, river network, crop type, and crop vulnerability from three aspects: the risk of disaster-causing factors, the sensitivity of the disaster-bearing environment, and the vulnerability of the carrier. A waterlogging impact evaluation index system was constructed, and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the impact of crop waterlogging disasters from 2020 to 2022. The evaluation results were then verified using crop yield data. The results show that the absolute correlation coefficients (|r|) between the mean values of the composite index of waterlogging and flood influence and yields per unit area for rice, maize, and soybean were 0.69, 0.74, and 0.71, respectively. These findings highlight the accuracy of the assessment index system for crop waterlogging and flood impacts. Over time, there were noticeable fluctuations in the contribution of disaster-causing factors and the disaster-breeding environment that breed them. Spatially, the contributions of disaster-causing factors and the disaster-breeding environment were unevenly distributed, whereas the impact on the carrier remained concentrated. Consistent with natural patterns, the results of this study provide essential technical support for agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, aiding the sustainable development of agriculture in the Sanjiang Plain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100596"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-07-05DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100593
Stephen Snow , Aysha Fleming , Yuwan Malakar , Emma Jakku , Simon Fielke , Rebecca Darbyshire , Graham Bonnett
Future climate projections are incorporated into a growing number of interactive online platforms, changing the way users interact with climate information. Motivated by user-centred research, this paper bridges the micro-level considerations of interface design, usability, comprehension and interpretation with more macro-level interaction design concerns, including adoption. We examine users’ understanding and navigation of short-term weather websites relative to longer-term climate projections. Focusing on farmers’ first impressions of a multi-decadal climate service, called My Climate View, we detail how they used and interpreted the interface and highlight where misunderstandings occurred. Our findings show how: (a) Users’ experience of climate projections are shaped by past experiences, including local knowledge and weather knowledge. (b) Misunderstandings of data, although uncommon, can severely undermine perceived usefulness and trust and can occur despite users reporting satisfactory interface usability. These findings underscore how usability and comprehension research can extend broader social science work on technology acceptance, behaviour and social connections. We provide suggestions for the design of online multi-decadal climate services that seek to maximise usefulness and usability and minimise misunderstandings of the information they provide.
{"title":"Tackling misunderstandings: A farmer-led approach to improve the usability of multi-decadal climate services","authors":"Stephen Snow , Aysha Fleming , Yuwan Malakar , Emma Jakku , Simon Fielke , Rebecca Darbyshire , Graham Bonnett","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100593","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.cliser.2025.100593","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Future climate projections are incorporated into a growing number of interactive online platforms, changing the way users interact with climate information. Motivated by user-centred research, this paper bridges the micro-level considerations of interface design, usability, comprehension and interpretation with more macro-level interaction design concerns, including adoption. We examine users’ understanding and navigation of short-term <em>weather</em> websites relative to longer-term <em>climate</em> projections. Focusing on farmers’ first impressions of a multi-decadal climate service, called My Climate View, we detail how they used and interpreted the interface and highlight where misunderstandings occurred. Our findings show how: (a) Users’ experience of climate projections are shaped by past experiences, including local knowledge and weather knowledge. (b) Misunderstandings of data, although uncommon, can severely undermine perceived usefulness and trust and can occur despite users reporting satisfactory interface usability. These findings underscore how usability and comprehension research can extend broader social science work on technology acceptance, behaviour and social connections. We provide suggestions for the design of online multi-decadal climate services that seek to maximise usefulness and usability and minimise misunderstandings of the information they provide.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"39 ","pages":"Article 100593"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144556682","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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