Climate Services最新文献

In recent years, the climate services market has increased significantly, especially in the Western European countries where they have become widely utilised in both the public and private sectors. In Romania, there is no specialised platform for those kinds of services, and the sector is in its beginnings. The current study is based on sociological research conducted as part of a national project aimed at increasing adaptive capacity to climate change. The purpose of the questionnaire that served as the study’s base was to collect information about the extent to which climate services are used by organisations, their perception of the benefits of using the services, the technical characteristics of the services, and the future needs of stakeholders. Such an analysis is necessary to comprehend the existing market situation in Romania and to be able to establish the circumstances essential for an effective improvement of climate services and products based on the co-development concept. The main outcomes of the survey conducted at the national level (324 respondents) confirm the early stage of the national climate service market as (i) only a small share (34 %) of respondents are users of climate products and services (mostly from agriculture, forestry, water resources management, biodiversity, energy sectors) and (ii) climate data and products are insufficiently tailored at sectoral level. Most representative identified stakeholder needs refer to: temporal (i.e., monthly, seasonal) and spatial resolution (i.e., local, regional) and types of tailored climate products (i.e., monthly/seasonal weather forecasts, spatio-temporal maps and analysis tool). The study identified premises further development of the climate service market in Romania (i.e., widespread interest in using climate products and services among the non-users, perceived societal benefits of climate products and services).

Climate services are an important tool providing information for many sectors to adapt to climate change. For agriculture, the impacts of climate change vary between regions and between crops, and farmers' needs for climate information are also determined by local context. The purpose of this paper is to identify the climate information needs of vegetable farmers, and to discuss these needs within the specific context of the Parisian region. Based on participatory workshops in three areas of the Parisian region, and using regional downscaled data from the French climate services, this study addresses the following question: what do vegetable farmers of a peri-urban area expect from climate services to adapt to climate change by 2060? Participatory workshops with agricultural expert allowed us to build a preliminary set of climate variables based on crops' vulnerability to high temperatures, mild temperature in winter, late frost, low relative air humidity, low precipitation, and climate extremes such as drought, heat waves and floods. Based on this set of variables climate projection on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales were provided to farmers for the near (2021–2040) and distant (2041–2060) future, as well as for past period (1990–2020) and discussed during 3 participatory workshops. Based on farmer’s feedbacks, we made a synthesis of climate information required by farmers which was validated and further discussed in a last round of workshops involving farmers and agricultural advisers. Three main findings emerge from this participatory study. Our first finding shows the need for both climate and non-climate information for vegetable farming adaptation. Specific needs include information on wind speed peaks and directions, soil moisture, climate analogous spaces (or sites), and urban planning regulations (constraining the possibility to build greenhouses or tunnels to adapt to climate change). Our second finding is that farmers expect from climate services to visualise a comprehensive climatic situation, that is, a whole conjunction of several inter-related variables, rather than precise and detailed variations of a single one. Seasonal and annual time scales seem to be the most relevant for farmers’ adaptation strategies (except for frost requiring more precise information). Our third finding is that these needs remain context-specific and depend on water access, the market demand (here Parisian), and the peri-urban location.

Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and an increase in extreme weather events pose significant threats to agricultural productivity and food security. These conditions provide the glimpse of the future and smallholder farmers, who often lack access to resources and support, are particularly vulnerable. Among the crops cultivated in Thailand, durian stands out as a uniquely cherished commodity, predominantly cultivated by these vulnerable farmers and despite the significance of this crop, there remains a notable oversight in understanding the specific challenges and vulnerabilities faced by durian growers in the face of changing climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to investigate the perception of climate change and the adaptive capacity among durian farmers in Southern Thailand. A survey involving 80 durian farmers from Surat Thani province was conducted, and the data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a binary logistic regression model. Findings found that 91.2 % of respondents acknowledged the impact of climate change, with 53.1 % opting to implement adaptation strategies. Factors such as lower education levels, limited farming experience, small farm sizes, and greater reliance on family labor significantly influenced the adoption of these strategies. Farmers achieving higher yields tended to adopt information and communication technologies (ICT), while smart farming technology (SFT) was more common among younger farmers and those with larger farms. This study indicates factors influencing adoption and a potential gap between awareness and action among durian farmers, highlighting the need for targeted interventions and support mechanisms to encourage and facilitate the implementation of adaptation measures.

Extreme heat-precipitation events, such as heatwaves and extreme precipitation, can have substantial impacts on the population, particularly in urbanized watersheds. However, few studies have investigated individual and compound extreme heat-precipitation events, causing much valuable information loss for watershed climate risk management. This study focuses on the Pearl River Basin (PRB), a highly urbanized area in southern China, and aims to predict changes in population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. To achieve this, a ranked ensemble global climate model (GCM) was used to generate projections for individual extreme precipitation, heatwaves, and sequential and coincident heat waves and precipitation extremes (SHWPs and CHWPs) under three future scenarios (SSP-RCPs). The main findings of the study are as follows: Precipitation extremes represent increasing extreme days and intensity under all three scenarios across the PRB. Towards the end of the 21st century, the SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts that heat waves will last ten times longer than historical records. Comparing two types of compound extreme events, we conclude that the 21st century will see a near-term high risk for SHWPs and a long-term high risk for CHWPs in the PRB. Furthermore, in both individual and compound heat-precipitation events, five hotspot cities in the PRB (i.e., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, and Huizhou) will face higher population exposure to extreme heat-precipitation events. These cities share common characteristics: key to economic development, coastal, and densely populated. This study can provide insight into extreme climate risk management in other tropical and subtropical basins.

Climate data portals are essential tools for climate change adaptation. This study analyses differences between two Canadian portals providing bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulations: Climate Data Canada and Portraits Climatiques. The study evaluates three core variables (daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and precipitation) as well as assesses five case studies, taken from the agriculture, transport and health sectors, that relied on climate indicators available through the portals. The underlying datasets vary in multiple ways (bias-adjustment methodology, climate of reference, ensemble composition, emissions scenarios) and, in general, the climatology of variables and indicators tends to be statistically different between portals towards the end of the century. Differences are significantly reduced when comparing projected changes with respect to present climate conditions, highlighting the important role played by the dataset used as a reference for the bias-adjustment procedure. When considered from the point of view of practical applications, the discrepancies between the portals are generally, although not always, sufficiently small that they do not impact the resulting decisions. Finally, indicators based on a fixed threshold were found to be strongly influenced by the reference used for the bias adjustment.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating natural hazards. Socioeconomic exposure to TCs is essential for global disaster risk assessment. This study mapped global TC hazards using TC best track data from 1990 to 2019 and the Holland wind field model. Absolute and relative exposure indices were developed, and a matrix model was used to determine the exposure hotspots of TCs. Our results show that: (1) From 1990 to 2019, the exposed GDP to TCs increased by USD 9771.5 billion, and the population increased by 570 million people, with an average annual growth rate of 3.62 % and 1.26 %, respectively. South Asia shows a significant increasing trend in both exposed GDP and the proportion of the exposed population. In terms of income levels, lower middle income countries have the fastest growth in exposed GDP and population. (2) Countries with high absolute exposure tend to be populous and economically developed, while countries with high relative exposure are mainly small island nations. The number of countries with the highest level (level V) of exposed GDP and the population is 8 and 10, respectively. Mainly located in East Asia and the Pacific. (3) From 1990 to 2019, the total area of affected cities increased by 12.94 × 10⁴ km². The increase in GDP and population exposure in urban areas accounted for 45.45 % and 77.53 % of the total growth in exposure, respectively. Our study contributes to understanding the dynamics of exposure characteristics in TC regions and provides an important foundation for TC risk management.

Climate change is a global challenge necessitating adaptation at the local level. Small island developing states (SIDS) in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) basin are particularly vulnerable and already facing significant challenges due to climate variability and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones (TCs). Tailored climate services, catering to their specific needs and contexts, are crucial for formulating appropriate adaptation strategies. This study aims to fill the gap of localized and reliable information for climate services in the SWIO region. A 12-km resolution regional climate model is dynamically downscaled from a CMIP6 model to capture the climatology of tropical cyclones. Outputs are bias-corrected at kilometer-scale resolution over multiple islands. A subset of CMIP6 simulations is also statistically downscaled over La Réunion to quantify model uncertainties at the local scale and compare statistical and dynamical downscaling methods.

CMIP6 models project an average increase in daily mean temperatures over small islands ranging from 1.2 °C (SSP1-2.6) to 3.7 °C (SSP5-8.5) by the end of the century compared to the reference period of 1981–2010, and up to 4.4 °C on Madagascar (SSP5-8.5). The dry season in the SWIO region is anticipated to become significantly drier, with precipitation deficits ranging from 10 % to 40 %, primarily due to a delayed onset of the rainy season. The cyclonic risk is expected to increase due to stronger cyclone intensities, a higher proportion of strong TCs, and the poleward migration of very intense TCs by one to two degrees latitude, further amplifying the risk faced by the Mascarene islands.

Co-production is increasingly acknowledged as the preferred mode for producing climate services, especially in complex and information-limited decision contexts. This paper contributes knowledge on practices and processes that can enable effective climate services in such contexts, through sharing experiences from the Future Resilience for African CiTies And Lands (FRACTAL) project.

FRACTAL focused on informing actions to tackle climate-related issues in nine cities in six southern African countries over a six-year period and, in parallel, developing research findings and insights. Principles for effectively co-producing climate services were collaboratively identified by the project team, after which practical insights were detailed by analysing the body of evidence produced during FRACTAL using qualitative methods. This analysis helped to understand how principles were engendered, as well as associated challenges.

While many principles identified resonate with the growing body of relevant knowledge, practical insights from this study contribute to understanding ‘how’ principles can be engendered. Experiences emphasise the importance of engaging participants’ emotions, avoiding centring on climate information, using a “third space” to facilitate equitable engagements, directing resources towards having fun and learning actively, process-driven iteration, focusing on contemporary issues with which stakeholders can connect, introducing a pathways framing, and embedding researchers in decision-making contexts. This constitutes a more comprehensive set of principles than was previously available in the literature. Application of these principles and the transdisciplinary framing, which was core to FRACTAL, supports a shift away from a focus on ‘products’ to knowledge co-production ‘processes’ where collaborative learning is the defining characteristic of climate services.