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Messaging Apps: A Rising Tool for Informational Autocrats 即时通讯应用:信息独裁者的新兴工具
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-19 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231190932
Inga K. Trauthig, Zelly C. Martin, S. Woolley
Social media have caused adaptations to existing conceptualizations of democratization, democratic backsliding, and authoritarian hardening. One attempt to capture how social media may solidify authoritarian tendencies while maintaining the government’s popularity is the concept of informational autocracies: rule primarily through the manipulation of information. In this paper, we contribute to Guriev and Treisman’s conceptualizations, who coined the term “informational autocrats” and relied on case studies from around the world. Overall, we expand on existing literature on social media and informational autocracies via a discussion of encrypted messaging apps (e.g., WhatsApp or Telegram) in such contexts. Using a qualitative comparative approach consisting of 68 interviews across 11 country case studies, our analyses demonstrate that the relative secrecy offered by encryption messaging apps can benefit state propagandists and authoritarian tendencies.
社交媒体导致了对现有民主化概念、民主倒退和威权强化的适应。试图抓住社交媒体如何在巩固威权倾向的同时保持政府的受欢迎程度的一个尝试是信息独裁的概念:主要通过操纵信息来统治。在本文中,我们对Guriev和Treisman的概念做出了贡献,他们创造了“信息独裁者”一词,并依靠来自世界各地的案例研究。总的来说,我们通过讨论加密消息应用程序(例如WhatsApp或Telegram),在这种情况下扩展了关于社交媒体和信息专制的现有文献。通过对11个国家的68次访谈进行定性比较,我们的分析表明,加密消息应用程序提供的相对保密性有利于国家宣传者和威权主义倾向。
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引用次数: 1
Descriptive Representation and Innovation in American Legislatures 美国立法机构的描述性代表与创新
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-15 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231186624
Jack W. Nickelson, Joshua M. Jansa
Previous scholarship has linked increased representation of women, racial/ethnic minorities, the LGB community, and the working class to more representative legislative agendas and roll call voting. But it is unclear if descriptive representation of historically excluded groups also affects policy innovativeness. Borrowing from interdisciplinary research, we argue that diverse legislatures are more innovative, so long as legislators operate in a quality deliberative environment. We measure the descriptive representation of seven different underrepresented groups in state legislatures from 1984 to 2016. We find that representation of women is a key predictor of innovation, operationalized as the tendency for states to adopt new policies early. We also find the effect of women is not dependent on critical mass, is undermined by high levels of polarization, and helps boost the capacity of legislatures to produce unique policy language. Some models are suggestive of a relationship between racial/ethnic minority (Black, Latinx, Native American) representation and innovation, but the results are inconsistent. The study provides insights into how representation of women can enhance legislative capacity to innovate in public policy.
之前的研究将女性、少数族裔、LGB社区和工人阶级的代表性增加与更具代表性的立法议程和唱名投票联系起来。但目前尚不清楚,对历史上被排斥群体的描述性描述是否也会影响政策的创新性。借鉴跨学科研究,我们认为,只要立法者在高质量的审议环境中运作,多元化的立法机构就更具创新性。我们测量了1984年至2016年州立法机构中七个不同的代表性不足群体的描述性代表性。我们发现,女性代表是创新的关键预测指标,体现为各州更早采用新政策的趋势。我们还发现,妇女的作用不依赖于临界质量,受到高度两极分化的破坏,并有助于提高立法机构制定独特政策语言的能力。一些模型暗示了种族/少数民族(黑人、拉丁裔、美洲原住民)的代表性与创新之间的关系,但结果并不一致。这项研究提供了关于妇女代表权如何提高公共政策创新的立法能力的见解。
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引用次数: 0
International Conflict Involvement, Domestic Repression, and the Escalation of Civil Conflict 国际冲突介入、国内镇压与国内冲突升级
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231188716
Heather M. Kopp, B. W. Reeder, Thorin M. Wright
Does participation in conflicts abroad lead to a great risk of conflict escalation at home? We contend that involvement in interstate conflict can impact the likelihood of civil conflict escalation via international conflict’s effects on domestic repression. During international conflict, states employ their military abroad to cope with an external threat, so they may have fewer resources with which to repress. Insurgencies may thus seize the opportunity to target the state. We predict that states that maintain high levels of repression during international conflict will be less likely to experience civil conflict escalation, but that states whose repressive output weakens increase their risk of such escalation. Utilizing mediation analysis, we find evidence that involvement in international conflict shifts repressive patterns, influencing internal conflict intensity. Specifically, governments that increase repression in the shadow of international conflict are less likely to witness civil conflict escalation while states that maintain or decrease repression are more likely.
参与国外冲突是否会导致国内冲突升级的巨大风险?我们认为,通过国际冲突对国内镇压的影响,参与州际冲突可能会影响国内冲突升级的可能性。在国际冲突期间,国家在国外部署军队来应对外部威胁,因此他们可以镇压的资源可能会减少。因此,叛乱可能会抓住机会以国家为目标。我们预测,在国际冲突期间保持高度镇压的国家将不太可能经历国内冲突升级,但镇压输出减弱的国家会增加这种升级的风险。利用调解分析,我们发现有证据表明,参与国际冲突改变了镇压模式,影响了内部冲突的强度。具体而言,在国际冲突阴影下加强镇压的政府不太可能目睹国内冲突升级,而维持或减少镇压的国家更有可能。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of the Political Environment on White Women’s Political Ambition 政治环境对白人女性政治抱负的影响
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-29 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231186572
Stephanie L. DeMora, Christian Lindke, Sean Long, Jennifer L. Merolla, Maricruz A. Osorio
The year 2018 has been dubbed the Year of the Woman because of the increased number of women who ran for office. What helps explain the dramatic increase in the number of women running for office? This paper examines how the political environment shapes white women’s emotional reactions to politics and in turn their political ambition. We focus on major aspects of the 2016 election: Trump’s treatment of women, Clinton’s historic run for office, the Women’s March, and the #MeToo movement. We argue that each of these factors leads to distinct emotional reactions, and that some of these reactions can increase political ambition. We explore support for these arguments with an experiment conducted with a sample of highly educated white women, an experiment fielded on the 2019 CCES, and with in-depth interviews conducted with first-time women candidates in 2018. We find that Trump’s treatment of women and Clinton’s historic run for office inspired political ambition, but through different emotional pathways. Trump’s treatment of women increased anger and in turn political ambition, while Clinton’s historic run increased ambition through enthusiasm. We find more muted effects for the Women’s Marches and the #MeToo movement.
由于竞选公职的女性人数增加,2018年被称为“女性年”。什么有助于解释竞选公职的女性人数急剧增加?本文考察了政治环境如何塑造白人女性对政治的情感反应,进而影响她们的政治抱负。我们关注2016年大选的主要方面:特朗普对女性的态度、克林顿历史性的竞选、女性大游行和#MeToo运动。我们认为,这些因素中的每一个都会导致不同的情绪反应,其中一些反应会增加政治野心。我们以受过高等教育的白人女性为样本进行了一项实验,在2019年的CCES上进行了一项实验,并对2018年的首次女性候选人进行了深入访谈,以此来探究这些论点的支持。我们发现,特朗普对待女性的方式和克林顿历史性的竞选激发了政治野心,但通过不同的情感途径。特朗普对待女性的方式增加了愤怒,进而增加了政治野心,而克林顿的历史性竞选则通过热情增加了野心。我们发现,女性大游行(Women’s Marches)和#MeToo运动(#MeToo movement)的影响更小。
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引用次数: 0
Ask and You Shall Receive: The Effects of Negativity and Fundraising Appeals on Facebook 问你就会收到:Facebook上消极和筹款呼吁的影响
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231186414
Amanda Wintersieck, Alex Keena
Social media has transformed electoral politics and allows campaigns to micro-target supporters. However, little is known about the effectiveness of political ads on social media, particularly those that appeal for money. We study the fundraising effects of ad campaigns sponsored by a well-funded Super PAC, The Lincoln Project. Our model includes 100s of millions of ad impressions targeting Facebook users in the 50 states, plus D.C., over 308 days in 2020. We coded ads for tone and fundraising appeals and find that the most effective ads are those that directly appeal for money, while ads that use negativity are associated with a small, positive effect. Ads that include both negativity and fundraising appeals are associated with the most money: each impression yields an additional $0.52 in itemized donations (campaign contributions). The results confirm what previous research on campaign giving has found— people tend to give money to campaigns when they are asked to—and show how digital advertising influences political behavior.
社交媒体改变了选举政治,并允许竞选活动以支持者为微观目标。然而,人们对社交媒体上政治广告的有效性知之甚少,尤其是那些吸引金钱的广告。我们研究了由资金充足的超级政治行动委员会林肯计划赞助的广告活动的筹款效果。我们的模型包括2020年308天内针对50个州和华盛顿特区Facebook用户的10亿次广告印象。我们对语气和筹款呼吁的广告进行了编码,发现最有效的广告是那些直接呼吁金钱的广告,而使用负面的广告则会产生微小的积极影响。包括负面和筹款呼吁的广告与最多的钱有关:每一个印象都会产生额外的0.52美元的分项捐款(竞选捐款)。这一结果证实了之前对竞选捐款的研究所发现的——人们倾向于在被要求时向竞选捐款——并表明了数字广告是如何影响政治行为的。
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引用次数: 0
Influencing Enforcement: The Application of International Law in Independent Judiciaries—The Case of the Alien Tort Statute 影响强制执行:国际法在独立司法中的适用——以《外国人侵权法》为例
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231185596
A. B. Bayram, Banks Miller
What explains the variation in the interpretation and enforcement of international law by domestic judges? Can independent judiciaries control the enforcement of countries’ commitments to international law? In this paper, we leverage a unique source of data—cases related to the Alien Tort Statute—to investigate how independent judges might be able to enforce international commitments to human rights without concern for whether the state (here the United States) has opted into the commitments in the first place. We show that behavioral factors in judicial decision making, and particularly those related to judicial ideological preferences, are potent predictors of judicial enforcement of international law. This implies that states with highly independent judiciaries are right to be worried about their abilities to control enforcement domestically, although we also find evidence that the U.S. government get a special degree of deference in these cases.
如何解释国内法官在解释和执行国际法方面的差异?独立的司法机构能控制各国对国际法承诺的执行吗?在本文中,我们利用一个独特的数据来源——与《外国人侵权法》相关的案例——来调查独立法官如何能够在不关心国家(这里是美国)是否首先选择了承诺的情况下执行国际人权承诺。我们表明,司法决策中的行为因素,特别是那些与司法意识形态偏好相关的因素,是国际法司法执行的有力预测因素。这意味着拥有高度独立司法机构的州担心自己控制国内执法的能力是正确的,尽管我们也发现证据表明,美国政府在这些案件中得到了特殊程度的尊重。
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引用次数: 0
The American Dreamers: The Effects of Media Coverage of Immigrants’ Age-at-Arrival 美国梦想家:媒体报道移民到达年龄的影响
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231185151
Guadalupe Madrigal
The Dreamers have become a driving force of policy and politics in the last two decades. Public opinion polls suggest that most Americans hold favorable attitudes towards Dreamers—more favorable than their attitudes about immigrants more broadly. This study suggests that age-at-arrival is a significant driving characteristic of this support. In 2019, I ran a 2-wave survey experiment in which respondents read a news story about an undocumented immigrant that either migrated at eleven or 21 years old. Respondents in the lower age-at-arrival condition reported more support for the immigrant; and this effect was most pronounced among those who were more opposed to immigration in general. A second 2-wave survey conducted in 2021 explored two possible mechanisms behind the impact of age-at-arrival: attitudes towards (a) assimilation and (b) attribution of responsibility. Results are considered as they relate to ongoing debates about Dreamers, media coverage, and attitudes about immigration.
在过去的二十年里,梦想者已经成为政策和政治的推动力。民意调查显示,大多数美国人对追梦者持积极态度——比他们对移民的态度更普遍。这项研究表明,出生年龄是这种支持的一个重要驱动特征。2019年,我进行了一项两波调查实验,在实验中,受访者阅读了一篇关于11岁或21岁时移民的无证移民的新闻报道。在较低的到达年龄条件下,受访者对移民的支持程度更高;这种影响在那些总体上更反对移民的人群中最为明显。2021年进行的第二轮两波调查探讨了到达年龄影响背后的两种可能机制:对(A)同化和(b)责任归属的态度。结果被认为与正在进行的关于梦想家的辩论、媒体报道和对移民的态度有关。
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引用次数: 0
Do Scandals Matter? 丑闻很重要吗?
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231185532
Brandon Rottinghaus
Political science research is conflicted about the impact of political scandals on survival in office. Scholars have found strong negative impacts to some scandals but others have found minimal or no effects. The literature has explored several consequences but no one work examines them collectively. This article examines presidential, gubernatorial, and Congressional scandals from 1972 to 2021 to assess the impact of scandal in a polarizing America. We find the negative consequences from scandals vary across time and institutions. Scandals in the Watergate era led to more resignations in Congress but fewer resignations of White House officials in the 1990s. During the Trump administration, White House officials did not survive in office at rates greater than past eras, demonstrating little support for the “Trump Effect.” However, politicians generally survived scandal more in the polarized era, hinting at the changing role of political scandals.
政治科学研究对政治丑闻对政治生存的影响存在矛盾。学者们发现一些丑闻会产生强烈的负面影响,但也有人发现影响很小或没有影响。文献已经探讨了几种后果,但没有一项工作对它们进行了综合研究。本文考察了1972年至2021年间的总统、州长和国会丑闻,以评估丑闻对两极分化的美国的影响。我们发现丑闻的负面影响因时间和制度而异。20世纪90年代,水门事件时代的丑闻导致国会辞职人数增加,但白宫官员辞职人数减少。在特朗普执政期间,白宫官员在任期间的存活率并没有高于过去的时代,这表明对“特朗普效应”的支持很少。但是,在两极化的时代,政治家们更容易从丑闻中幸存下来,这暗示了政治丑闻的作用正在发生变化。
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引用次数: 0
Newsroom Ideological Diversity and the Ideological Sorting of Journalists 新闻编辑室的思想多样性与新闻工作者的思想分类
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231182145
H. Hassell, Matthew R. Miles, B. Morecraft
In efforts to curb ideological bias in the news, citizens, academics, and journalists have highlighted the importance of newsroom ideological diversity. Using a large-scale survey of newspaper political journalists in the United States, we examine the diversity of ideological perspectives of political journalists across newspapers and communities and how ideological misalignments with the newsroom and the local community relate to those journalists’ employment decisions. We find political newspaper reporters regularly work for newspapers and in communities that do not mirror their own ideological perspectives. However, by following newspaper political journalists’ employment decisions over a three-year period, we also find that the ideological differences between those journalists and the newsroom where they work (but not ideological difference with the local community) are related to an increase in journalists’ desire to change jobs and in the likelihood they will actually seek other employment, either within journalism or outside of the profession.
为了遏制新闻中的意识形态偏见,公民、学者和记者都强调了新闻编辑室意识形态多样性的重要性。通过对美国报纸政治记者的大规模调查,我们研究了报纸和社区政治记者意识形态观点的多样性,以及与新闻编辑室和当地社区的意识形态错位如何与这些记者的就业决策相关。我们发现政治报纸记者经常为报纸和社区工作,而这些报纸和社区并不反映他们自己的意识形态观点。然而,通过在三年的时间里跟踪报纸政治记者的就业决定,我们还发现,这些记者和他们工作的新闻编辑室之间的意识形态差异(而不是与当地社区的意识形态差异)与记者换工作的愿望的增加以及他们实际上寻求其他工作的可能性有关,无论是在新闻行业内还是在行业外。
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引用次数: 0
Compliance with Public Health Orders: The Role of Trust, Representation, and Expertise 遵守公共卫生秩序:信任、代表和专业知识的作用
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-20 DOI: 10.1177/10659129231182375
Katelyn E. Stauffer, Susan M. Miller, Lael R. Keiser
Governments rely on citizen compliance to implement policies. Yet, in the current climate where citizens express low levels of trust in government, gaining compliance can prove challenging. Scholarship suggests other factors that might promote compliance even in the absence of trust. We examine two: expertise and descriptive representation across race, gender, and partisanship. We experimentally activate general (dis)trust in government and use a conjoint experiment to examine multiple factors that might shape citizens’ willingness to comply with and trust government guidance related to COVID-19. We find that shared partisanship and consultation with experts have the largest effects. We also see an effect of shared racial identity on compliance for Black Americans, at least when trust is relatively low. As we consider the role of trust, expertise, and descriptive representation across race, gender, and partisanship simultaneously, the results offer important insights into factors that underpin citizens’ willingness to comply with government mandates. Our results have important real-world implications, highlighting the importance of bipartisan responses to crises as well as ensuring racial representation in government. They also demonstrate that explicitly involving experts in decision-making processes increases citizens’ willingness to comply with policy.
政府依靠公民的遵守来执行政策。然而,在当前公民对政府的信任度较低的环境下,获得遵守可能具有挑战性。奖学金表明,即使在缺乏信任的情况下,也可能促进合规性的其他因素。我们考察了两个方面:跨种族、性别和党派的专业知识和描述性表现。我们通过实验激活对政府的普遍信任,并使用联合实验来检查可能影响公民遵守和信任与新冠肺炎相关的政府指导的意愿的多个因素。我们发现,共同的党派偏见和与专家的协商产生了最大的影响。我们还看到了共同的种族认同对美国黑人遵守规定的影响,至少在信任度相对较低的情况下是这样。当我们同时考虑信任、专业知识和描述性代表在种族、性别和党派之间的作用时,研究结果为支持公民遵守政府命令的因素提供了重要的见解。我们的研究结果具有重要的现实意义,突出了两党应对危机以及确保政府中种族代表性的重要性。它们还表明,明确让专家参与决策过程会提高公民遵守政策的意愿。
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引用次数: 0
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Political Research Quarterly
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