Papers in Regional Science最新文献

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Assessing the local cost of urban climate resilience: An analysis of the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience (FiDi) Master Plan 评估城市气候适应能力的本地成本：金融区和海港气候适应能力总体规划分析

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100110

Caroline Welter, Daniel Centuriao

Cities worldwide face increasing challenges in adapting to the devastating effects of severe weather events, including flooding, hurricanes, and rising temperatures. New York City, severely impacted by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, has developed the Financial District and Seaport Climate Resilience Master Plan (FiDi) as part of its effort to enhance climate resilience in Lower Manhattan. This study evaluates the local economic, environmental, and fiscal impacts of implementing this plan, which represents a US$5 to US$7 billion investment over 10 to 15 years. Using a multi-regional input–output (MRIO) modeling approach, we capture the economic interactions between Lower Manhattan and other New York City boroughs, as well as spillover effects across New York State. We address the substantial uncertainties surrounding the plan’s execution by integrating the S-curve framework to simulate financial disbursement patterns over time. This framework allows for periodic cost–benefit analysis. Our results indicate that the FiDi plan might generate significant net economic benefits, though concentrated environmental impacts occur during specific implementation phases. Tax revenue effects reveal opportunities for enhanced coordination among federal, state, and local governments to support urban resilience initiatives. This research contributes to the literature by demonstrating the utility of combining MRIO modeling with the S-curve framework to address financial uncertainties and assess large-scale infrastructure projects before their implementation. It also offers a replicable framework for ex-ante simulation of the economic and environmental trade-offs of climate resilience projects in cities globally.

世界各地的城市在适应恶劣天气事件的破坏性影响方面面临越来越大的挑战，包括洪水、飓风和气温上升。纽约市在2012年遭受飓风桑迪的严重影响后，制定了《金融区和海港气候韧性总体规划》（FiDi），作为加强曼哈顿下城气候韧性努力的一部分。本研究评估了实施该计划对当地经济、环境和财政的影响，该计划在10至15年内投资50至70亿美元。利用多区域投入产出（MRIO）建模方法，我们捕捉了曼哈顿下城与纽约市其他行政区之间的经济互动，以及整个纽约州的溢出效应。我们通过整合s曲线框架来模拟一段时间内的财务支出模式，解决了围绕计划执行的重大不确定性。这个框架允许进行周期性的成本效益分析。我们的研究结果表明，尽管在具体的实施阶段会产生集中的环境影响，但FiDi计划可能会产生显著的净经济效益。税收效应揭示了联邦、州和地方政府之间加强协调以支持城市韧性举措的机会。本研究通过展示将MRIO模型与s曲线框架相结合来解决财务不确定性并在大型基础设施项目实施前对其进行评估的效用，为文献做出了贡献。它还提供了一个可复制的框架，用于预先模拟全球城市气候适应能力项目的经济和环境权衡。

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引用次数: 0

Manufacturing automation and its implications for local employment outcomes: Evidence from Sweden 制造业自动化及其对当地就业结果的影响：来自瑞典的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100112

Peter Njekwa Ryberg

This study examines the relationship between firm-level automation in manufacturing and local labor market employment outcomes using 2001–2022 Swedish linked employer-employee data. I utilize a shift-share instrumental variable approach and obtain robust results that automation affects employment both directly in automating firms and indirectly in nonautomating firms and nonmanufacturing firms. Firms that embrace automation experience employment growth. These gains come at the expense of employment losses in nonautomating firms and other sectors, as labor flows in response to the shift in labor demand. By introducing regional heterogeneous impacts, this study further shows that the effects of automation differ across local labor markets because of the uneven spatiotemporal diffusion of automation technologies. The results outlined in this study shed light on the mechanisms underlying the uneven impacts of automation-induced structural change, both within and across regional economies.

本研究使用2001-2022年瑞典相关雇主-雇员数据，考察了制造业企业层面自动化与当地劳动力市场就业结果之间的关系。我使用了一种偏移份额工具变量方法，并获得了强有力的结果，即自动化既直接影响自动化企业的就业，也间接影响非自动化企业和非制造业企业的就业。拥抱自动化的公司会经历就业增长。这些收益是以非自动化企业和其他行业的就业损失为代价的，因为劳动力会随着劳动力需求的变化而流动。通过引入区域异质性影响，本研究进一步表明，由于自动化技术的时空扩散不均匀，自动化对当地劳动力市场的影响存在差异。本研究概述的结果揭示了自动化引起的结构变化在区域经济内部和跨区域经济中的不均衡影响的潜在机制。

引用次数: 0

A novel method for estimating multiregional input-output tables using data at different aggregation levels 一种利用不同聚集水平的数据估计多区域投入产出表的新方法

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100111

Jonas Westin

Estimating MRIO tables is often hindered by limited access to regional data. The paper presents a novel method for estimating interregional trade matrices based on a gravity-RAS approach using survey and non-survey data at different aggregation levels. The new aggregate-disaggregate-aggregate RAS method combines estimation of à priori matrices using aggregated survey data with RAS balancing using disaggregated non-survey data for multiple commodities. The paper uses data from the Swedish Commodity Flow Survey to showcase the method's potential to improve estimations of multiregional trade matrices, highlighting trade-offs between aggregation bias and sampling errors. The performance of the method is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation in an approach that simulates both trade matrices comprised of multiple commodities and a data sampling process for collecting CFS data. Simulation results indicate that RAS balancing at a disaggregated level can significantly improve model accuracy compared to both aggregated and disaggregated methods, highlighting the effectiveness of disaggregate-level RAS balancing. The method is demonstrated using a case study based on Swedish Commodity Flow Survey data, which also illustrates common challenges in MRIO construction under real-world data constraints.

估计MRIO表往往受到区域数据获取有限的阻碍。本文提出了一种利用不同聚集水平的调查和非调查数据，基于重力- ras方法估算区域间贸易矩阵的新方法。新的聚合-分解-聚合RAS方法将使用聚合调查数据的先验矩阵估计与使用多个商品的分解非调查数据的RAS平衡相结合。本文使用来自瑞典商品流量调查的数据来展示该方法在改进多区域贸易矩阵估计方面的潜力，突出了汇总偏差和抽样误差之间的权衡。采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对该方法的性能进行了评估，该方法模拟了由多种商品组成的交易矩阵和收集CFS数据的数据采样过程。仿真结果表明，与聚合和分解方法相比，分解水平的RAS平衡可以显著提高模型的精度，突出了分解水平RAS平衡的有效性。该方法通过基于瑞典商品流量调查数据的案例研究进行了演示，该案例研究也说明了在现实数据约束下MRIO建设中的常见挑战。

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引用次数: 0

Regional income redistribution in an era of rising market concentration 市场集中度上升时代的区域收入再分配

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100106

Roberta Capello, Kenneth Castillo-Hidalgo, Giovanni Perucca

Starting from the superstar firm hypothesis of Autor et al. (2020), the paper conceptually analyses the regional industrial market power-induced effect on profit shares elaborating on the role of space. Our idea is that an industrial market power-induced effect exists, but this is heterogeneous across regions due to: i) the different capacity of regions to host superstar firms; ii) the multiplicative negative effects on inequalities that propagate in the area through the local filière of companies. We test these assumptions in European Union regions, thanks to a micro-level approach able to capture the real income redistribution between capital and labor remuneration, in different regions. The industry market power-induced effect on profit share is estimated for 82 industries competing at European level, observed between 2013 and 2019. Our findings suggest that the increase in the firms’ profit share is positively affected by an increasing industrial market power, and that this is higher, the larger the number of superstar firms located in the region. This effect is more intense in regions highly specialized in the same industry as the superstar firms located there.

本文从Autor et al.（2020）的超级明星企业假说出发，从概念上分析了区域产业市场动力对利润份额的影响，并对空间的作用进行了阐述。我们的想法是，工业市场力量诱导效应存在，但这在不同地区是异质的，因为：1)不同地区拥有超级明星企业的能力不同；Ii)通过公司在当地的分支在该地区传播的不平等的乘法负面影响。我们在欧盟地区测试了这些假设，这要归功于一种微观层面的方法，能够捕捉到不同地区资本和劳动报酬之间的实际收入再分配。在2013年至2019年期间，对82个在欧洲竞争的行业进行了行业市场力量对利润份额的影响估计。我们的研究结果表明，企业利润份额的增加受到工业市场力量增加的积极影响，并且该地区的超级明星企业数量越多，利润份额越高。这种影响在与超级明星公司位于同一行业的高度专业化地区更为强烈。

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引用次数: 0

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-07-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100107

Bogdan-Constantin Ibanescu

引用次数: 0

Adolescence socioeconomic segregation and high-skill jobs in adulthood 青少年社会经济隔离和成年后的高技能工作

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100108

Sofia Wixe , Charlotta Mellander , José Lobo

The influence of neighborhood environments on children’s future outcomes has attracted significant scholarly attention in recent years. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining how neighborhood segregation during adolescence affects the likelihood of securing a high-skill occupation in adulthood. Utilizing comprehensive Swedish microdata, we control for intergenerational persistence in labor market outcomes and cognitive abilities through military enlistment data. Our findings show that growing up in neighborhoods characterized by high poverty and low educational attainment reduces the probability of pursuing jobs that require advanced higher education. In contrast, obtaining managerial positions seems less influenced by socioeconomic background. Furthermore, our findings reveal that obtaining a higher education and relocating to metropolitan areas can help mitigate neighborhood disadvantages, underscoring the importance of spatial mobility and access to university studies for disadvantaged youth. However, socioeconomic disadvantages at the family level remain persistent and challenging to overcome.

近年来，邻里环境对儿童未来发展的影响引起了学术界的广泛关注。这项研究通过研究青少年时期的邻里隔离如何影响成年后获得高技能职业的可能性，为现有文献做出了贡献。利用全面的瑞典微数据，我们通过征兵数据控制劳动力市场结果和认知能力的代际持久性。我们的研究结果表明，在以高贫困和低教育程度为特征的社区中长大，降低了追求需要高等教育的工作的可能性。相比之下，获得管理职位似乎较少受到社会经济背景的影响。此外，我们的研究结果表明，获得高等教育和迁移到大都市地区有助于缓解社区劣势，强调空间流动性和获得大学学习机会对弱势青年的重要性。然而，家庭一级的社会经济劣势仍然存在，难以克服。

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引用次数: 0

Regional economic impact of the Next Generation European Union recovery plan 下一代欧盟复苏计划对区域经济的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100105

Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez , Carlos Llano , Julián Pérez , Dimitris Kallioras , Maria Tsiapa

This paper analyzes the economic impact of the Next Generation Funds package of the European Union (NGEU), focusing on the allocation of NGEU funds across European regions and the impact on rent distribution using new datasets on direct investments and remittances. Employing the input-output framework this work assesses the effects of the pandemic and the implications of NGEU funds, considering two alternative scenarios of sectoral and regional allocation, and a second round of rent distribution. The analysis reveals that the positive effects of the NGEU are largely overshadowed by the negative impacts of pandemic in most regions. Additionally, when considering the final redistributive effect, including interregional capital and remittance flows, the spatial pattern shifts, indicating that despite overall improvements, core regions capture rents from peripheral regions, leading to anti-cohesion outcomes. These results prompt further investigation into the role of NGEU in regional recovery and cohesion, suggesting additional research into rent distribution and the long-term economic impacts.

本文利用直接投资和汇款的新数据集分析了欧盟下一代基金（NGEU）一揽子计划的经济影响，重点关注NGEU基金在欧洲各地区的分配以及对租金分配的影响。这项工作采用投入产出框架，评估了这一流行病的影响和全国职工联盟资金的影响，考虑了部门和区域分配以及第二轮租金分配的两种备选方案。分析表明，全国人口普查的积极影响在很大程度上被大多数地区大流行病的消极影响所掩盖。此外，当考虑到最终的再分配效应（包括区域间资本和汇款流动）时，空间格局发生了变化，表明尽管总体上有所改善，但核心地区从外围地区获取租金，导致反凝聚力结果。这些结果促使人们进一步研究新geu在区域复苏和凝聚力中的作用，并建议对租金分配和长期经济影响进行进一步研究。

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引用次数: 0

Prioritising infrastructure investments based on agglomeration externalities: A methodological framework with evidence from Peru 基于集聚外部性优先考虑基础设施投资：一个方法框架，来自秘鲁的证据

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100104

Pedro Herrera-Catalán , Coro Chasco , Vicente Royuela

The purpose of this research is to propose a methodological framework for strategically prioritising infrastructure investments in areas with significant spatial concentration of economic activity. Such concentration generates agglomeration externalities, positively influencing economic growth and productivity. However, infrastructure investments aimed at reinforcing these externalities often involve equity-efficiency trade-offs, presenting policymakers with challenging resource-allocation decisions. Our framework comprises three sequential stages. The first stage involves identifying geographical patterns of industrial agglomeration through a non-parametric statistical methodology. In the second stage, spatial econometric models are estimated to examine how firm location choices respond to different categories of infrastructure: basic infrastructure (water, sewerage, electricity), accessibility to markets (primarily transport infrastructure), and access to production inputs (education and financial infrastructure). The final stage constructs a typology of high-return areas by integrating the findings from previous stages, aligning infrastructure priorities with industry-specific needs and local infrastructure endowments. Applying this methodology to manufacturing industries in Peru reveals substantial variation in industrial agglomeration patterns, with approximately one-third of industries showing statistically significant clustering. The analysis demonstrates that infrastructure endowments and spatial spillover effects considerably influence firm location decisions. The resulting typology highlights clear infrastructure investment priorities tailored to distinct regional characteristics and agglomeration potentials. The major conclusion drawn is that a systematic, evidence-based methodology enables policymakers to effectively target infrastructure investments, maximising economic returns and mitigating equity-efficiency trade-offs. This approach is particularly valuable in developing countries facing significant infrastructure deficits and resource constraints.

本研究的目的是提出一种方法框架，在经济活动空间集中的地区战略性地优先考虑基础设施投资。这种集中产生集聚外部性，对经济增长和生产率产生积极影响。然而，旨在加强这些外部性的基础设施投资往往涉及公平与效率之间的权衡，给政策制定者带来了具有挑战性的资源配置决策。我们的框架包括三个连续的阶段。第一阶段涉及通过非参数统计方法识别工业集聚的地理模式。在第二阶段，空间计量经济模型估计将检查企业选址选择如何响应不同类别的基础设施：基本基础设施（水，污水处理，电力），市场可达性（主要是交通基础设施），以及获得生产投入（教育和金融基础设施）。最后阶段通过整合前几个阶段的研究结果，将基础设施优先级与行业特定需求和当地基础设施禀赋相结合，构建高回报地区的类型学。将这一方法应用于秘鲁的制造业，可以发现工业集聚模式存在巨大差异，大约三分之一的工业显示出统计上显著的集群。分析表明，基础设施禀赋和空间溢出效应对企业区位决策有显著影响。由此产生的类型突出了针对不同区域特征和集聚潜力的明确的基础设施投资重点。得出的主要结论是，系统的、基于证据的方法使政策制定者能够有效地针对基础设施投资，实现经济回报最大化，并减轻股权效率权衡。这种方法在面临严重基础设施不足和资源限制的发展中国家特别有价值。

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引用次数: 0

Impact evaluation of broadband investment on coverage and household internet use in rural areas 宽带投资对农村地区覆盖和家庭互联网使用的影响评估

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100099

Ignacio Moral-Arce , María Gorriti , Miguel Gómez-Antonio

This work simultaneously evaluates the impact of investment on broadband coverage in rural areas and whether having better broadband coverage affects household internet use by analyzing variables such as the use of electronic commerce, employment opportunities, and interactions with the public administration, among others. We use panel data of Spanish municipalities with 100 Mb coverage and broadband investment information for the period 2013–2019 provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation (MEADT), a survey on household internet use from the Spanish Statistical Institute, and other public databases. Our methodological approach combines the difference-in-differences method, Inverse Probability Weight (IPW), and the Instrumental Variable technique. The estimated reduced form is a second-best approach motivated by the lack of data on adoption. The initial results show a rural digital divide in Spain, with significant differences between urban areas (90 % coverage) and rural areas (38 %). The impact evaluation shows that rural municipalities that have made use of broadband investment subsidies notably increase their 100 Mb coverage compared to similar municipalities that have not used this subsidies. Regarding the effect of better coverage on household internet use, the results indicate that high-speed coverage in rural areas does not significantly influence household internet use in these areas.

这项工作同时评估了投资对农村地区宽带覆盖的影响，以及更好的宽带覆盖是否会影响家庭互联网使用，方法包括分析电子商务的使用、就业机会以及与公共行政部门的互动等变量。我们使用了西班牙各城市的面板数据，覆盖范围为100 Mb，以及2013-2019年期间宽带投资信息，这些数据由经济事务和数字转型部（MEADT）提供，来自西班牙统计研究所的家庭互联网使用调查，以及其他公共数据库。我们的方法方法结合了差中差法、逆概率权重（IPW）和工具变量技术。由于缺乏关于采用情况的数据，估计的简化形式是次优方法。初步结果显示，西班牙农村地区存在数字鸿沟，城市地区（90% %覆盖率）和农村地区（38% %覆盖率）之间存在显著差异。影响评估表明，与未使用这种补贴的类似城市相比，使用宽带投资补贴的农村城市的100 Mb覆盖率显著增加。关于高覆盖率对家庭互联网使用的影响，研究结果表明，农村地区的高速覆盖对这些地区的家庭互联网使用没有显著影响。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive recovery and regional response: The impact of an earthquake on tourism industry dynamics 适应性恢复与区域响应：地震对旅游业动态的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100100

Roberto Urbani , Fabrizio Colantoni , Riccardo Persio , Vladislava Stanková

This study examines the impact of the 2009 earthquake in L′Aquila on the local tourism industry through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Our findings have revealed a sharp decline in tourism supply in the short term, due to extensive infrastructural damage. Although governmental aid facilitated a partial recovery, in the medium term, the sector's growth trajectory has remained significantly below a counterfactual scenario, thereby highlighting the limited adaptive resilience of L′Aquila’s tourism industry to exogenous shocks. This result underscores the necessity of targeted policy interventions to enhance the long-term recovery and resilience of the tourism industry. Furthermore, our findings offer valuable insights for disaster response strategies and emphasise the importance of adaptive recovery planning and investments in risk management, particularly in regions that are vulnerable to natural disasters.

本研究采用综合控制方法（SCM）检验了2009年拉奎拉地震对当地旅游业的影响。我们的研究结果显示，由于基础设施的广泛破坏，短期内旅游供应急剧下降。虽然政府援助促进了部分复苏，但在中期，该部门的增长轨迹仍远低于反事实情景，从而突出了拉奎拉旅游业对外部冲击的有限适应能力。这一结果强调了有针对性的政策干预的必要性，以加强旅游业的长期复苏和复原力。此外，我们的研究结果为灾害应对策略提供了有价值的见解，并强调了适应性恢复规划和风险管理投资的重要性，特别是在易受自然灾害影响的地区。

引用次数: 0

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