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Impact evaluation of broadband investment on coverage and household internet use in rural areas 宽带投资对农村地区覆盖和家庭互联网使用的影响评估

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100099

Ignacio Moral-Arce , María Gorriti , Miguel Gómez-Antonio

This work simultaneously evaluates the impact of investment on broadband coverage in rural areas and whether having better broadband coverage affects household internet use by analyzing variables such as the use of electronic commerce, employment opportunities, and interactions with the public administration, among others. We use panel data of Spanish municipalities with 100 Mb coverage and broadband investment information for the period 2013–2019 provided by the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation (MEADT), a survey on household internet use from the Spanish Statistical Institute, and other public databases. Our methodological approach combines the difference-in-differences method, Inverse Probability Weight (IPW), and the Instrumental Variable technique. The estimated reduced form is a second-best approach motivated by the lack of data on adoption. The initial results show a rural digital divide in Spain, with significant differences between urban areas (90 % coverage) and rural areas (38 %). The impact evaluation shows that rural municipalities that have made use of broadband investment subsidies notably increase their 100 Mb coverage compared to similar municipalities that have not used this subsidies. Regarding the effect of better coverage on household internet use, the results indicate that high-speed coverage in rural areas does not significantly influence household internet use in these areas.

这项工作同时评估了投资对农村地区宽带覆盖的影响，以及更好的宽带覆盖是否会影响家庭互联网使用，方法包括分析电子商务的使用、就业机会以及与公共行政部门的互动等变量。我们使用了西班牙各城市的面板数据，覆盖范围为100 Mb，以及2013-2019年期间宽带投资信息，这些数据由经济事务和数字转型部（MEADT）提供，来自西班牙统计研究所的家庭互联网使用调查，以及其他公共数据库。我们的方法方法结合了差中差法、逆概率权重（IPW）和工具变量技术。由于缺乏关于采用情况的数据，估计的简化形式是次优方法。初步结果显示，西班牙农村地区存在数字鸿沟，城市地区（90% %覆盖率）和农村地区（38% %覆盖率）之间存在显著差异。影响评估表明，与未使用这种补贴的类似城市相比，使用宽带投资补贴的农村城市的100 Mb覆盖率显著增加。关于高覆盖率对家庭互联网使用的影响，研究结果表明，农村地区的高速覆盖对这些地区的家庭互联网使用没有显著影响。

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引用次数: 0

Adaptive recovery and regional response: The impact of an earthquake on tourism industry dynamics 适应性恢复与区域响应：地震对旅游业动态的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100100

Roberto Urbani , Fabrizio Colantoni , Riccardo Persio , Vladislava Stanková

This study examines the impact of the 2009 earthquake in L′Aquila on the local tourism industry through the use of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Our findings have revealed a sharp decline in tourism supply in the short term, due to extensive infrastructural damage. Although governmental aid facilitated a partial recovery, in the medium term, the sector's growth trajectory has remained significantly below a counterfactual scenario, thereby highlighting the limited adaptive resilience of L′Aquila’s tourism industry to exogenous shocks. This result underscores the necessity of targeted policy interventions to enhance the long-term recovery and resilience of the tourism industry. Furthermore, our findings offer valuable insights for disaster response strategies and emphasise the importance of adaptive recovery planning and investments in risk management, particularly in regions that are vulnerable to natural disasters.

本研究采用综合控制方法（SCM）检验了2009年拉奎拉地震对当地旅游业的影响。我们的研究结果显示，由于基础设施的广泛破坏，短期内旅游供应急剧下降。虽然政府援助促进了部分复苏，但在中期，该部门的增长轨迹仍远低于反事实情景，从而突出了拉奎拉旅游业对外部冲击的有限适应能力。这一结果强调了有针对性的政策干预的必要性，以加强旅游业的长期复苏和复原力。此外，我们的研究结果为灾害应对策略提供了有价值的见解，并强调了适应性恢复规划和风险管理投资的重要性，特别是在易受自然灾害影响的地区。

引用次数: 0

Digitalisation, platformisation and the transformations of local labour markets 数字化、平台化和当地劳动力市场的转型

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100103

Roberta Capello, Simona Ciappei, Camilla Lenzi

Rapid technological progress, primarily in the fields of artificial intelligence and advanced automation, have relaunched the debate regarding their impact on employment, highlighting vast heterogeneity across occupational groups, with the least skilled and least educated workers proving to be the most vulnerable to substitution effects. This paper re-examines this statement by conceptually and empirically distinguishing digitalisation from platformisation, depending on their use of digital tools for the organisation of market transactions, and shows their positive, though highly selective, effects for specific occupational groups. Based on an empirical analysis of Italian NUTS3 regions in the period 2018–2023, the paper highlights the role of platforms for the creation of gig jobs, as much as the importance of advanced digitalisation for the creation of creative ones, highlighting an undesirable downgrading of jobs and an enduring polarisation trend in labour markets, which calls for mitigating policies accompanying the diffusion of digitalisation and platformisation in the upcoming years.

快速的技术进步（主要是在人工智能和先进自动化领域）重新引发了关于它们对就业影响的辩论，凸显了职业群体之间的巨大异质性，事实证明，技能最低、受教育程度最低的工人最容易受到替代效应的影响。本文通过在概念上和经验上区分数字化和平台化来重新检验这一说法，这取决于他们对组织市场交易的数字工具的使用，并显示了他们对特定职业群体的积极影响，尽管是高度选择性的。基于对2018-2023年意大利NUTS3地区的实证分析，该论文强调了平台在创造零工工作方面的作用，以及先进数字化对创造创造性工作的重要性，强调了工作的不良降级和劳动力市场持续的两极分化趋势，这要求在未来几年出台伴随数字化和平台化扩散的缓和政策。

引用次数: 0

Place-based policies and innovation: The contrasting roles of central and local special economic zones 地方政策与创新：中央与地方经济特区的角色对比

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100102

Longfei Zheng

This paper establishes the linkage between place-based policies and growth from the perspective of regional innovation, using China as a case study. Leveraging extensive data on special economic zones (SEZs) and patent data, I examine the causal effects and underlying channels of SEZ introduction on regional innovation outcome. Through a set of difference-in-differences estimations at the county level, the empirical findings demonstrate that central and local SEZs play contrasting roles in innovation. Specifically, the establishment of national-level zones significantly increases regional innovation outcome through the positive channels of improved transportation accessibility and increased start-up activities. However, the introduction of provincial-level zones has a negative impact on regional innovation outcome through the negative channel of the rising fiscal pressure of local government. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm that the SEZ effects vary with local development level and zone characteristics. These findings contribute significantly to the development of a context-tailored place-based policy toolbox.

本文从区域创新视角出发，以中国为例，建立了地方政策与增长之间的联系。利用经济特区的大量数据和专利数据，我研究了经济特区引入对区域创新成果的因果关系和潜在渠道。通过县域层面的差异中差估计，实证结果表明，中央经济特区和地方经济特区在创新中发挥着不同的作用。具体而言，国家级园区的建立通过改善交通可达性和增加创业活动的积极渠道显著提高了区域创新成果。然而，省级自贸区的引入通过地方政府财政压力上升的负向渠道对区域创新成果产生了负面影响。此外，实证结果证实，经济特区的效应随地方发展水平和区域特征而变化。这些发现对开发因地制宜的基于地方的政策工具箱有重大贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Growth, working capital and refinancing: The geography of post-pandemic regional financial resilience in UK SMEs 增长、营运资金和再融资：大流行后英国中小企业区域金融弹性的地理位置

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100101

Marc Cowling , Ross Brown , Weixi Liu , Huan Yang

Understanding how small firms adapt and adjust financially following exogenous shocks is crucial and acts as a harbinger of regional financial resilience levels. Therefore, it is important to determine what shape firms are in as they emerge from a shock such as the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly with regard to their ability to finance new growth enhancing activities. Yet not all firms are ready to invest in future growth and simply need an injection of working capital while others need recourse to refinancing existing debts. To flesh out the concept of regional financial resilience, this paper examines how SMEs across different multi-scaler geographies (i.e. regions, sub-regions and districts) of the UK have been raising new loans to finance growth, working capital and/or simply refinancing their existing debt. Using a rich loan dataset for the UK covering 2021–2024 we find stark spatial variations in the proportion of firms reporting growth as the key mechanism for using the loans and these are strongest at the most disaggregate unit of spatial analysis examined (i.e. districts). Our findings suggest the future development of the UK economy is likely to display a very uneven spatial pattern with some areas investing heavily in growth, while for others, addressing cash flow problems or issues associated with existing debts are paramount. In response to the pandemic, small firms are exhibiting a complex spatial patchwork of regional financial resilience across the UK’s deeply variegated space economy.

了解小企业在外部冲击后如何适应和调整财务至关重要，并可作为区域金融弹性水平的先兆。因此，重要的是要确定企业在摆脱Covid-19大流行等冲击时处于何种状态，特别是在为新的增长促进活动提供资金的能力方面。然而，并非所有公司都准备好投资于未来的增长，它们只需要注入营运资金，而其他公司则需要对现有债务进行再融资。为了充实区域金融弹性的概念，本文研究了英国不同多规模地区（即地区，次区域和地区）的中小企业如何筹集新贷款以资助增长，营运资金和/或简单地为现有债务再融资。使用涵盖2021-2024年的英国丰富的贷款数据集，我们发现将增长作为使用贷款的关键机制的公司比例存在明显的空间差异，并且这些差异在最分散的空间分析单位（即地区）中最强。我们的研究结果表明，英国经济的未来发展可能会呈现出非常不均衡的空间格局，一些地区在增长方面投入了大量资金，而对其他地区来说，解决现金流问题或与现有债务相关的问题至关重要。为了应对大流行，小公司在英国深度多样化的空间经济中表现出复杂的区域金融弹性空间拼凑。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of territories on the salaries of young individuals 领土对年轻人工资的影响

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100098

P. Caro , A. Checcaglini , J.-P. Guironnet

What influence do the past and present locations of young workers have on their professional careers? To answer this question, Céreq's Génération 2010 survey was used to examine the impact of Employment Zone (EZ) characteristics on wages, particularly through interviews conducted three and seven years after these individuals left the school system. An estimate based on a multi-level model confirms that individual characteristics largely determine the level of pay. However, the characteristics of the EZ also significantly influence pay trends, with the effect of the area being much greater for mobile individuals. In addition, individuals’ career paths within territories leave a lasting impact on their salary progression: the characteristics of the EZ in which they resided in 2013 still exert influence on their salaries in 2017. The proposed analysis also reveals distinct effects based on qualifications and mobility. Territorial inequalities are more pronounced for less mobile graduates, whereas the most mobile graduates can leverage these differences to maximise the returns on their education. However, using data spanning 7 years, it becomes evident that this effect diminishes with repeated territorial mobility. The uniqueness of this article is further underscored by the presentation of results through the cartographic transposition of econometric findings.

年轻员工过去和现在的工作地点对他们的职业生涯有什么影响？为了回答这个问题，我们使用了2010年的调查来检验就业区（EZ）特征对工资的影响，特别是通过在这些人离开学校系统3年和7年后进行的访谈。一项基于多层次模型的估计证实，个人特征在很大程度上决定了薪酬水平。然而，EZ的特征也显著影响薪酬趋势，对流动个人的影响要大得多。此外，个人在区域内的职业道路对他们的薪酬增长产生了持久的影响：他们在2013年居住的经济特区的特征仍然对他们在2017年的薪酬产生影响。拟议的分析还揭示了基于资历和流动性的不同影响。地域不平等在流动性较低的毕业生中更为明显，而流动性最强的毕业生则可以利用这些差异来最大化其教育回报。然而，使用跨越7年的数据，很明显，这种影响随着领土的重复移动而减弱。这篇文章的独特性进一步强调了通过计量经济学发现的制图转换结果的呈现。

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引用次数: 0

Brazilian demographic dividend: A spatial analysis of the role of savings 巴西人口红利：储蓄作用的空间分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-04-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100097

Marianne Zwilling Stampe , Gabrielito Rauter Menezes , Fernando Pozzobon , Eduardo Grando Sirtoli

This study investigates the role of savings as a channel for the second demographic dividend in minimum comparable areas (MCA) in Brazil between 2000 and 2010. Using spatial econometric models, the research analyzed the effects of per capita savings, education, and labor force participation on income growth. The results reveal that, in addition to the first demographic dividend – evidenced by the contribution of working-age population relative to the total population to economic growth – the second dividend, driven by savings and education, has a significant impact on regional economic growth. Savings, treated as an endogenous variable, proved to be crucial in mitigating the effects of population aging and promoting sustainable development. The study also highlights the importance of local spatial interactions between MCAs, suggesting that public policies aimed at promoting savings, human capital formation, and productive inclusion are essential to maximize the benefits of demographic dividends. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to reduce regional disparities in Brazil.

本研究调查了储蓄作为2000年至2010年间巴西最小可比地区（MCA）第二次人口红利渠道的作用。利用空间计量模型，研究分析了人均储蓄、教育和劳动力参与率对收入增长的影响。结果表明，除了第一次人口红利（以劳动年龄人口相对于总人口对经济增长的贡献为证据）外，由储蓄和教育驱动的第二次人口红利对区域经济增长也有显著影响。储蓄作为一个内生变量，在减轻人口老龄化的影响和促进可持续发展方面证明是至关重要的。该研究还强调了mca之间的地方空间相互作用的重要性，表明旨在促进储蓄、人力资本形成和生产性包容的公共政策对于最大限度地发挥人口红利的效益至关重要。这些发现为寻求减少巴西地区差异的政策制定者提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

The 'picking the fittest' approach and spatial dynamics in China’s artificial intelligence regional development 中国人工智能区域发展的“优胜劣汰”路径与空间动态

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-04-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100096

Saverio Barabuffi , Jacopo Cricchio , Alberto Di Minin

This paper investigates the role of regional specialization in ICT in fostering AI patenting performance and inter-regional spatial spillovers across China’s provincial-level regions. Using panel fixed effects estimators, a Spatial Autoregressive Regression model and by adapting the technological frontier IV strategy on a comprehensive database covering 2006–2021, we find that positively selecting areas where regional ICT specialization is leveraged – the “picking the fittest” approach – can increase AI patenting performance while exacerbating regional disparities. Furthermore, we find that geographical proximity to developed AI regions impedes AI patenting progress in neighboring areas. The findings highlight the need for collaborative regional strategies and urge policy-makers to achieve a balance between strengthening regional specialization and promoting cooperation.

本文研究了信息通信技术区域专业化在促进中国省级地区人工智能专利绩效和区域间空间溢出中的作用。利用面板固定效应估计器、空间自回归回归模型，并在覆盖2006-2021年的综合数据库上采用技术前沿IV战略，我们发现，积极选择利用区域ICT专业化的领域——“挑选最合适的”方法——可以提高人工智能专利绩效，同时加剧区域差距。此外，我们发现与人工智能发达地区的地理邻近性阻碍了邻近地区的人工智能专利进展。研究结果强调了协作性区域战略的必要性，并敦促决策者在加强区域专业化和促进合作之间取得平衡。

引用次数: 0

Invention volatility and urban systems dynamics 发明波动性和城市系统动态

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-04-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100095

Breandán Ó hUallacháin, Jacob Douma

Large firms generate most American inventions. We know that cities are host to organizations of varying size and prevalence, but are these conditions important to urban system dynamics? This article presents volatility in patenting as a novel instrument for distinguishing between cities reliant on many or few organizations. Volatility is the standard deviation of a city’s inter-annual patenting growth rate over a period. We attest an inverse-size hypothesis between volatility and metropolitan size -- as metropolitan size increases volatility decays. This hypothesis belongs to a family of urban scaling power laws, but our approach is distinctive in linking invention volatility, city size, and the organization of technological progress. A focus on volatility facilitates an unraveling of intertwined place attributes and organizational characteristic. Place attributes include the level of engagement in invention and the growth rate of patenting by resident inventors. Organizational characteristics pertain to patentee type with an emphasis on the proportion of grants in a city to corporate champions, individual inventors, universities, and Federal agencies. Results show that while place attributes are influential beyond the largest metropolitan areas, organizational characteristics are key to understanding volatility in big cities.

美国的大部分发明都是由大公司创造的。我们知道，城市承载着不同规模和流行程度的组织，但这些条件对城市系统动态重要吗？本文介绍了专利的波动性，作为区分依赖于许多或少数组织的城市的一种新工具。波动性是一个城市在一段时间内的年际专利增长率的标准差。我们证明了波动性与大都市规模之间的逆规模假设——随着大都市规模的增加，波动性会衰减。这个假设属于城市规模幂定律家族，但我们的方法在将发明波动性、城市规模和技术进步的组织联系起来方面是独特的。对易变性的关注有助于解开交织在一起的场所属性和组织特征。地方属性包括参与发明的程度和当地发明人申请专利的增长率。组织特征与专利权人类型有关，重点是一个城市授予企业冠军、个人发明家、大学和联邦机构的比例。结果表明，虽然地方属性的影响超出了最大的大都市地区，但组织特征是理解大城市波动性的关键。

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引用次数: 0

Resilience and recovery in networked economic systems: An ex-ante analysis of susceptibility to aspects of a potential China–Taiwan conflict 网络经济系统的弹性与恢复：对大陆-台湾潜在冲突的敏感性分析

IF 2.4 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Papers in Regional Science

Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2025.100094

Andrew G. Ross , Marko Raseta , Matthias Grajewski , Andreas Kleefeld

The global economy's interconnectedness and the potential for supply chain disruptions were highlighted recently during Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, a possible future conflict between China and Taiwan could lead to substantial disruptions in the availability of high-tech components and other goods produced by Taiwan that are widely used in manufacturing worldwide. It is necessary to understand and proactively address such potential supply chain vulnerabilities for critical goods and services. This paper applies a dynamic nonequilibrium model to identify the forward and backward dependencies of individual industrial, manufacturing, service, and energy sectors in a multi-regional context. The model tracks the macroeconomic variables of economies from their initial equilibrium state into a nonequilibrium stationary state, and quantifies their susceptibility, resilience, and recovery to shocks in the networked economic system. Through this analysis, the paper examines the impact of excluding Taiwan from global economic networks, revealing substantial impacts on major economies and sectors essential to the operating of the global economy. The approach presented and empirically tested enables policymakers and stakeholders to proactively use data-driven insights to anticipate future outcomes and reduce disruption risks.

最近，在俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略战争和2019冠状病毒病大流行期间，全球经济的相互联系和供应链中断的可能性得到了突出体现。同样，中国大陆和台湾之间未来可能发生的冲突，可能会导致台湾生产的高科技零部件和其他产品的供应严重中断，而这些产品在全球制造业中被广泛使用。有必要了解并主动解决关键商品和服务的潜在供应链漏洞。本文应用一个动态非均衡模型来识别多区域背景下单个工业、制造业、服务业和能源部门的正向和向后依赖关系。该模型跟踪经济体从初始均衡状态到非均衡平稳状态的宏观经济变量，并量化其对网络经济系统冲击的敏感性、弹性和恢复能力。透过此分析，本文检视台湾被排除在全球经济网络之外的影响，揭示对全球经济运作至关重要的主要经济体和部门的重大影响。本文提出的方法经过实证检验，使政策制定者和利益相关者能够主动使用数据驱动的见解来预测未来的结果，并降低中断风险。

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