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Italian regional econometric model 意大利地区计量经济学模型
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100060
Simone Lombardini
This paper shifts studies on macroeconomic models from a national to a regional scope. Regions, indeed, often follow growth trajectories that dif- fer greatly from others within the same country. In this study we propose a macroeconometric model for 20 economies corresponding to the Italian administrative Regions. We called it: IREM (Italian Regional Econometric Model). We illustrate the general structure and properties of IREM, especially with regard to the economy’s response to changes in regional fiscal policy, technological advances and other dimensions of the economic environment. One of the model’s key features is the joint representation of the economy on both the demand and the supply side with a multiple estimating equations system calibrated at regional level. Public finance is designed in great detail, with multiple specific equations for local government expenses and revenues, using the Italian database CPT (Conti Pubblici Territoriali). After documenting the model structure and the estimation results with an in-sample simulation, we turn to illustrate the model properties through the study of its response functions to multiple shocks.
本文将对宏观经济模型的研究从国家范围转向地区范围。事实上,各地区的增长轨迹往往与同一国家内的其他地区大相径庭。在本研究中,我们提出了一个与意大利行政区相对应的 20 个经济体的宏观计量经济学模型。我们称之为IREM(意大利地区计量经济模型)。我们阐述了 IREM 的一般结构和特性,特别是经济对地区财政政策变化、技术进步和经济环境其他方面的反应。该模型的主要特点之一是通过一个在地区层面校准的多重估计方程系统,在需求和供给两方面联合表示经济。公共财政的设计非常详细,利用意大利数据库 CPT(Conti Pubblici Territoriali)为地方政府的支出和收入设计了多个特定方程。在通过样本内模拟对模型结构和估计结果进行记录后,我们转而通过研究其对多重冲击的响应函数来说明模型的特性。
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引用次数: 0
Navigating the precarious path: Understanding the dualisation of the Italian labour market through the lens of involuntary part-time employment 在不稳定的道路上航行:从非自愿兼职就业的角度理解意大利劳动力市场的双重化
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100061
Liliana Cuccu , Vicente Royuela , Sergio Scicchitano
This article investigates the surge in Involuntary Part-Time (IPT) employment in Italy from 2004 to 2019, exploring its impact on various socio-economic groups and adopting a spatial perspective. The study tests the hypothesis that technological shifts, specifically routine biased technological change (RBTC), and the expansion of household substitution services contribute to IPT growth. There is a widening negative gap in IPT prevalence among marginalized groups - women, young, and less skilled workers. After controlling for sector and occupation, the higher IPT propensity diminishes but remains significant, hinting at persistent discrimination. Additionally, segregation into more exposed occupations and sectors intensifies over time. Leveraging province-level indicators, and using a Partial Adjustment model, there is statistical support for RBTC’s correlation with IPT, especially among women. The impact of household substitution services is notably pronounced for women, highlighting sector segregation.
本文研究了 2004 年至 2019 年意大利非自愿兼职(IPT)就业的激增,探讨了其对不同社会经济群体的影响,并采用了空间视角。研究检验了这样一个假设,即技术变革,特别是常规偏向性技术变革(RBTC),以及家庭替代服务的扩展,是 IPT 增长的原因。在边缘化群体--妇女、年轻人和技术水平较低的工人--中,IPT 流行率的负差距不断扩大。在对部门和职业进行控制后,较高的 IPT 倾向有所减弱,但仍然显著,这表明歧视依然存在。此外,随着时间的推移,更多职业和部门的隔离也在加剧。利用省一级的指标,并使用部分调整模型,在统计上支持了 RBTC 与 IPT 的相关性,尤其是在妇女中。家庭替代服务对妇女的影响尤为明显,凸显了行业隔离。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of internal migration on regional convergence: Evidence from Serbia 国内移民对地区趋同的影响:塞尔维亚的证据
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100062
Maria Candelaria Barrios González , Maja Jandrić , Dejan Molnar , Svetozar Tanasković
The paper investigates the effects of internal migration flows on regional convergence in Serbia, a country with large regional disparities, during the period 2000–2018. For this purpose, we implement both the net and the gross (in- and out-) migration approaches. We undertake separate analyses for different categories of the migrant population to explore the impact of migrations involving different levels of human capital. The results show that internal migration flows between NUTS3 units in the observed period mainly fostered divergence, thus contradicting the neoclassical theory. This effect is especially pronounced when considering migrations of the active population and prime-age specialists.
塞尔维亚是一个地区差异较大的国家,本文研究了 2000-2018 年间国内移民流对地区趋同的影响。为此,我们采用了净移民和总(迁入和迁出)移民两种方法。我们对不同类别的移民人口进行了单独分析,以探讨涉及不同人力资本水平的移民的影响。结果表明,在观察期内,NUTS3 单位之间的内部移民流动主要促进了分化,从而与新古典理论相矛盾。当考虑到活跃人口和壮年专家的迁移时,这种影响尤为明显。
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引用次数: 0
A longitudinal study of evolving polycentric pattern in Shanghai 上海多中心格局演变的纵向研究
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100059
Shijia Lin , Xinyi Niu
In the context of technological progress and economic transition, the urban spatial structure has consistently undergone dynamic evolution. However, the trajectories of polycentric patterns display significant national and regional variations. It is crucial to examine the dynamic evolution of spatial structures within Chinese metropolitan areas amidst economic transitions. Focusing on the Shanghai Metropolitan Area (SMA), this study investigates the temporal dynamics of job distribution and employment centres and considers industry differentiation to understand the evolution of polycentric patterns. Additionally, spatial regression models are utilized to probe the intrinsic mechanisms through which adjustments in industrial structure influence spatial evolution. The findings indicate that both the service and manufacturing sectors have the potential to concentrate employment and form subcentres in the SMA. Nevertheless, within the economic transition context, the downtown area, dominated by the service sector, underwent specialized development, fostering continuous prosperity and the emergence of employment subcentres in the periphery. In contrast, employment centres in suburban areas, dominated by the manufacturing sector, experienced a declining trend. Consequently, the locations of employment clusters in the SMA shifted, concurrently reshaping the relationships between the main centre and subcentres and leading to a transformation from a weaker separated polycentric pattern to a stronger continuous polycentric pattern. This paper elucidates the underlying mechanisms through which industrial transition influences urban spatial structure, offering insights into the evolution of polycentric patterns in the postindustrial era from a local Chinese perspective.
在技术进步和经济转型的背景下,城市空间结构不断经历动态演变。然而,多中心格局的发展轨迹却呈现出显著的国家和地区差异。研究经济转型期中国大都市区内空间结构的动态演变至关重要。本研究以上海大都市区(SMA)为重点,研究了就业岗位分布和就业中心的时间动态,并考虑了产业分化,以了解多中心模式的演变。此外,研究还利用空间回归模型来探究产业结构调整影响空间演变的内在机制。研究结果表明,服务业和制造业都有可能将就业集中起来,在南亚和东南亚地区形成次中心。然而,在经济转型背景下,以服务业为主的市中心区经历了专业化发展,促进了持续繁荣,并在外围形成了就业次中心。相比之下,以制造业为主的郊区就业中心则呈下降趋势。因此,南部和东部地区就业集群的位置发生了变化,同时重塑了主中心和次中心之间的关系,导致从较弱的分离型多中心模式向较强的连续型多中心模式转变。本文阐明了产业转型影响城市空间结构的内在机制,从中国本土的视角为后工业时代多中心格局的演变提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of natural disasters: How the 2009 earthquake transformed the economy of L’Aquila’s labour market area 自然灾害的影响:2009 年地震如何改变拉奎拉劳动力市场地区的经济
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100058
Giovanni Baiocchetti , Francesco Scotti , Pasquale Lelio Iapadre
We investigate the economic impact of the 2009 earthquake in the L’Aquila labour market area (Italy) through a synthetic difference-in-differences method applied to the 2004–2013 period. The shock immediately disrupted the local economy with a 27.3 % and 38.2 % reduction in employment and the number of firms. However, these effects are not statistically significant when measured 5 years after the earthquake, suggesting that a rebound process affected both dimensions. Such findings are the result of heterogeneous dynamics across the manufacturing and service sectors: the former showed a prolonged contraction in the number of employees and firms, whereas the latter experienced a strong recovery after a short-term negative effect. These dynamics have induced an increase in L’Aquila’s sector dissimilarity from other local labour market areas in Italy.
我们通过一种适用于 2004-2013 年期间的合成差分法,研究了 2009 年地震对意大利拉奎拉劳动力市场地区的经济影响。地震立即扰乱了当地经济,就业人数和企业数量分别减少了 27.3% 和 38.2%。然而,地震发生 5 年后,这些影响在统计上并不显著,这表明这两个方面都受到了反弹过程的影响。这些发现是制造业和服务业不同动态的结果:前者显示出雇员和企业数量的长期萎缩,而后者则在短期负面影响后经历了强劲的复苏。这些动态导致拉奎拉与意大利其他地方劳动力市场地区的行业差异加大。
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引用次数: 0
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100056
Fransiskus Serfian Jogo
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引用次数: 0
The distributional characteristics of Interreg Transnational Programmes and their role in promoting regional cohesion 区域间跨国计划的分配特点及其在促进区域凝聚力方面的作用
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100057
Spyros Niavis, Dimitris Kallioras, George Petrakos
Interreg is an instrument of Cohesion Policy promoting cooperation among different organizations of Europe to tackle common challenges. Project funding within Interreg could become competitive, given the strong interest from numerous institutions in participating. This, in turn, may lead to disparities in the number of projects implemented across European regions. If participation is driven by factors such as the economic development level of regions, then the fundamental aim of Cohesion Policy—to reduce the gaps between developed and lagging regions—may not be well served by Interreg, as existing gaps may be exacerbated. Given this issue, the paper focuses on the 12 Interreg transnational programmes, which bring together regions from many different countries. The paper examines the distributional characteristics of these programmes using conventional statistical and network measures with data from the 2014–2020 programming period. It then develops a novel indicator of regional participation levels and constructs and empirically tests a framework for measuring the effect of various socioeconomic, geographical, and demographic factors on the participation levels of EU regions. The analysis reveals differences in the allocation patterns of projects among the programmes and shows that different types of networks are formed. Additionally, the instrument appears to benefit smaller and wealthier regions, which results in counteracting demographic inequalities but simultaneously augmenting economic ones. To address this challenge, the paper provides recommendations for management authorities to make the formation of partnerships more equitable.
Interreg 是 "凝聚政策"(Cohesion Policy)的一个工具,旨在促进欧洲不同组织之间的合作,以应对共同的挑战。由于众多机构都有浓厚的兴趣参与,Interreg 内的项目资助可能会变得竞争激烈。这反过来又可能导致欧洲各地区实施的项目数量存在差异。如果参与是由地区经济发展水平等因素驱动的,那么 Interreg 可能无法很好地实现凝聚政策的基本目标--缩小发达地区与落后地区之间的差距,因为现有差距可能会加剧。考虑到这一问题,本文将重点放在 12 个 Interreg 跨国计划上,这些计划汇集了许多不同国家的地区。本文利用 2014-2020 年计划编制期间的数据,采用传统的统计和网络措施,研究了这些计划的分布特点。然后,论文开发了一个新颖的地区参与水平指标,构建并实证检验了一个框架,用于衡量各种社会经济、地理和人口因素对欧盟地区参与水平的影响。分析揭示了各计划之间项目分配模式的差异,并表明形成了不同类型的网络。此外,该工具似乎有利于较小和较富裕的地区,这导致了人口不平等的抵消,但同时也扩大了经济不平等。为应对这一挑战,本文向管理当局提出了使伙伴关系的形成更加公平的建议。
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引用次数: 0
Building back greener, levelling-up or both? An assessment of the economic and environmental efficiency transition of UK regions 重新建设更环保的城市、提高城市水平还是两者兼而有之?英国各地区经济和环境效率转型评估
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100053
Giorgio Fazio , Sara Maioli , Nirat Rujimora
This paper assesses the transition of UK regions towards the policy ambitions of “building back greener” and “levelling-up” the UK economy. We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods to calculate regional economic and environmental efficiency for 41 UK ITL2 regions between 2005 and 2020, and then assess their “unconditional” and “spatial” transition probabilities of improving one of the two efficiencies or both. We find evidence of a trade-off between the two for more than half of the regions and that the costs of transition are unequally distributed. We also find that regions are more likely to become efficient in both directions if they are already environmentally efficient; less economically efficient regions are more likely to become economically efficient than environmentally efficient. Economic efficiency improvements are easier to achieve than environmental efficiency improvements, requiring stronger policy support for the latter. The high inertia of regions requires central and local authorities’ intervention to reduce regional inequalities and improve both types of efficiency. Whilst we do not find evidence of spatial spillovers for environmental transitions, space (negatively) matters for regional economic efficiency. Without a combination of place-based and national policies, there is no natural regional convergence nor levelling up, whilst the transition to net zero will remain too slow.
本文评估了英国各地区向 "重建绿色 "和 "提升英国经济水平 "的政策目标过渡的情况。我们使用数据包络分析(DEA)方法计算了英国 41 个 ITL2 地区在 2005 至 2020 年间的地区经济和环境效率,然后评估了这些地区提高两种效率中的一种或同时提高两种效率的 "无条件 "和 "空间 "过渡概率。我们发现有证据表明,一半以上的地区在这两种效率之间存在权衡,而且过渡成本分布不均。我们还发现,如果地区已经具有环境效率,则更有可能在两个方向上都提高效率;经济效率较低的地区更有可能提高经济效率,而不是环境效率。经济效率的提高比环境效率的提高更容易实现,后者需要更有力的政策支持。地区的高度惰性要求中央和地方当局进行干预,以减少地区不平等并提高两种效率。虽然我们没有发现环境转型的空间溢出效应,但空间(负面)对区域经济效率很重要。如果不将基于地方的政策与国家政策结合起来,就不会出现自然的区域趋同或均衡化,而向净零过渡的速度将依然过于缓慢。
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引用次数: 0
Regional R&I ventures to tackle climate change: A new geography of challenge-oriented innovation landscape 应对气候变化的地区研发企业:以挑战为导向的创新景观新地理
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100052
Francesco Cappellano , Anabela M. Santos , Nicola Francesco Dotti
This paper analyses how EU regions have aligned their innovation and policy endeavours to tackle exposure to the effects of Climate Change at regional level. Scholars hailed the need to orienting efforts and resources to tackle societal challenges. However, we have little empirical evidence on the alignment of R&I ecosystems and policy endeavours towards tackling Climate Change. Using regression analysis, we assess the relationship between such directionality and the exposure to risk of disasters (i.e., coastal floods, river floods, and landslides) that each region faces in the short, medium, and long term due to Climate Change. Results show a positive relationship between risk projection and climate change preparedness. However, a more in-depth analysis demonstrates the complexity of such geographical "problem-solution convergence": investigating whether the EU regions most at risk of being affected by climate change are also the ones most ready to target climate change through an aligned combination of R&I and policy efforts. Findings show that more developed regions appear more ready to tackle climate change effects compared to transition and less developed regions. These findings suggest that more support is needed for less developed regions facing major Climate Change-related risks.
本文分析了欧盟各地区如何协调其创新和政策努力,以应对气候变化在地区层面的影响。学者们认为有必要调整工作和资源的方向,以应对社会挑战。然而,我们几乎没有关于研发和创新生态系统与应对气候变化的政策努力相一致的经验证据。通过回归分析,我们评估了这种方向性与各地区在短期、中期和长期内因气候变化而面临的灾害风险(即沿海洪水、河流洪水和山体滑坡)之间的关系。结果显示,风险预测与气候变化准备之间存在正相关关系。然而,更深入的分析表明了这种地理 "问题-解决方案趋同 "的复杂性:调查最有可能受到气候变化影响的欧盟地区是否也是最准备好通过研究与开发和政策努力相结合来应对气候变化的地区。研究结果表明,与转型地区和欠发达地区相比,较发达地区似乎更有能力应对气候变化的影响。这些研究结果表明,需要为面临重大气候变化相关风险的欠发达地区提供更多支持。
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引用次数: 0
Is Shanghai a rival to Seoul? Analysis on complementary and competitive relationships in trade 上海是首尔的竞争对手吗?贸易中的互补与竞争关系分析
IF 2.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.pirs.2024.100050
Yoojin Yi , Euijune Kim

Despite the continuous expansion of trade and investment agreements between China and South Korea, little is known about the distribution of benefits and losses stemming from synergy and competition at the regional level. This paper aims to investigate the complementary and competitive interactions among 14 economic regions of the two countries concerning bilateral export scale. Using a Dendrinos-Sonis model based on a zero-sum structure, we analyzed the interregional trade patterns between the two countries from 2002 to 2022. The evidence shows that the growth of Seoul metropolitan area is complementary to the growth of Shanghai metropolitan area in terms of regioinal export share, but not vice versa. Central Area in South Korea exhibits widespread complementarity, while Beijing metropolitan leans towards competition.

尽管中韩两国之间的贸易和投资协定不断扩大,但人们对区域层面的协同与竞争所产生的利益分配和损失却知之甚少。本文旨在研究两国 14 个经济区域在双边出口规模方面的互补性和竞争性互动。利用基于零和结构的 Dendrinos-Sonis 模型,我们分析了 2002 年至 2022 年两国之间的地区间贸易模式。结果表明,就地区出口份额而言,首尔都市圈的增长与上海都市圈的增长是互补的,反之亦然。韩国中部地区表现出广泛的互补性,而北京都市圈则倾向于竞争。
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引用次数: 0
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Papers in Regional Science
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