According to the trading rules and financial data structure of the stock index futures market, and considering the impact of major emergencies, we intend to build a quantitative investment decision-making model based on machine learning. We first adopt the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) signal decomposition technology to separate the short-term noise, cycle transformation and long-term trend from the original series, and use the CSI 500 Baidu index series to reflect the investors’ attention, which provides data support for establishing a more effective forecasting model. Then, the CEEMDANBP neural network model is designed based on the obtained effective information of low-frequency trend series, investor attention index and CSI 500 stock index futures market transaction data. Finally, an Attention-based Dual Thrust quantitative trading strategy is proposed and optimized. The optimized Attention-based Dual Thrust strategy solves the core problem of breakout interval determination, effectively avoids the risk of subjective selection, and can meet investors’ different risk preferences. The quantitative investment decision-making model based on CEEMDAN-BP neural network utilizes the advantages of different algorithms, avoids some defects of a single algorithm, and can make corresponding adjustments according to changes in investors’ attention and the occurrence of emergencies. The results show that considering investor attention can not only improve the predictive ability of the model, but also reduce the cognitive bias of the market, effectively control risks and obtain higher returns.
根据股指期货市场的交易规律和金融数据结构，考虑重大突发事件的影响，拟构建基于机器学习的量化投资决策模型。我们首先采用CEEMDAN (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise)信号分解技术，从原始序列中分离出短期噪声、周期变换和长期趋势，并利用沪深500百度指数序列反映投资者关注程度，为建立更有效的预测模型提供数据支持。然后，基于获得的低频趋势序列、投资者关注指数和沪深500股指期货市场交易数据的有效信息，设计CEEMDANBP神经网络模型。最后，提出并优化了基于注意力的双推力定量交易策略。优化后的基于关注的双推力策略解决了突破区间确定的核心问题，有效避免了主观选择的风险，能够满足投资者不同的风险偏好。基于CEEMDAN-BP神经网络的定量投资决策模型利用了不同算法的优点，避免了单一算法的一些缺陷，并能根据投资者注意力的变化和突发事件的发生做出相应的调整。结果表明，考虑投资者关注不仅可以提高模型的预测能力，还可以减少市场的认知偏差，有效控制风险，获得更高的收益。
{"title":"QUANTITATIVE INVESTMENT DECISIONS BASED ON MACHINE LEARNING AND INVESTOR ATTENTION ANALYSIS","authors":"Jie Ying Gao, Yunshu Mao, Zeshui Xu, Qianlin Luo","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18672","url":null,"abstract":"According to the trading rules and financial data structure of the stock index futures market, and considering the impact of major emergencies, we intend to build a quantitative investment decision-making model based on machine learning. We first adopt the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) signal decomposition technology to separate the short-term noise, cycle transformation and long-term trend from the original series, and use the CSI 500 Baidu index series to reflect the investors’ attention, which provides data support for establishing a more effective forecasting model. Then, the CEEMDANBP neural network model is designed based on the obtained effective information of low-frequency trend series, investor attention index and CSI 500 stock index futures market transaction data. Finally, an Attention-based Dual Thrust quantitative trading strategy is proposed and optimized. The optimized Attention-based Dual Thrust strategy solves the core problem of breakout interval determination, effectively avoids the risk of subjective selection, and can meet investors’ different risk preferences. The quantitative investment decision-making model based on CEEMDAN-BP neural network utilizes the advantages of different algorithms, avoids some defects of a single algorithm, and can make corresponding adjustments according to changes in investors’ attention and the occurrence of emergencies. The results show that considering investor attention can not only improve the predictive ability of the model, but also reduce the cognitive bias of the market, effectively control risks and obtain higher returns.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89771760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
With the advent of digital technology and social media, mobile phone companies are increasingly turning to emotional marketing to appeal to consumers’ inner preferences. The purpose of this study is to examine the economic consequences of emotional marketing on customer loyalty, while taking into account the mediating variables of brand identity and brand trust. By surveying 647 digitally-savvy consumers in China, the proposed model was empirically validated. The results suggest that emotional marketing plays a crucial role in fostering consumer loyalty towards mobile phone brands, and that brand identity and brand trust play sequential mediating roles in the impact of emotional marketing on consumer loyalty. This research enhances our understanding of emotional marketing and consumer loyalty, and offers valuable insights for mobile phone brands seeking to implement effective emotional marketing strategies.
{"title":"ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF EMOTIONAL MARKETING BASED ON CONSUMER LOYALTY OF MOBILE PHONE BRANDS: THE SEQUENTIAL MEDIATING ROLES OF BRAND IDENTITY AND BRAND TRUST","authors":"Yaping Jiang, Yanyan Sun, Shibo Tu","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19278","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19278","url":null,"abstract":"With the advent of digital technology and social media, mobile phone companies are increasingly turning to emotional marketing to appeal to consumers’ inner preferences. The purpose of this study is to examine the economic consequences of emotional marketing on customer loyalty, while taking into account the mediating variables of brand identity and brand trust. By surveying 647 digitally-savvy consumers in China, the proposed model was empirically validated. The results suggest that emotional marketing plays a crucial role in fostering consumer loyalty towards mobile phone brands, and that brand identity and brand trust play sequential mediating roles in the impact of emotional marketing on consumer loyalty. This research enhances our understanding of emotional marketing and consumer loyalty, and offers valuable insights for mobile phone brands seeking to implement effective emotional marketing strategies.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74138506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xing-yun Zou, Xinman Peng, Xinxin Zhao, Jie Ma, Chun-ping Chang
It is crucial for the advancement of political economics and innovation economics to examine the relationship between income inequality and green innovation (GI). Using the panel fixed effect model, this study investigates the influence of income inequality on GI across 97 countries from 1991 to 2018 and demonstrates a significant non-linear association between the two. The empirical data exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship, suggesting that there is an optimal degree of income inequality that optimizes GI output, and the inflection point of our overall sample is at a Gini coefficient of 0.366. Additionally, we choose a set of robustness tests to validate the results by substituting explained variables, adding omitted variables, and employing the difference and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the non-linear patterns vary among samples, with the U-shape relationship being more significant in countries with lower income, higher corruption, and weaker government effectiveness. Our findings provide government decision-makers with a crucial reference for maximizing the importance of income distribution in fostering GI and achieving sustainable development.
{"title":"DOES INCOME INEQUALITY AFFECT GREEN INNOVATION? A NON-LINEAR EVIDENCE","authors":"Xing-yun Zou, Xinman Peng, Xinxin Zhao, Jie Ma, Chun-ping Chang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19271","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19271","url":null,"abstract":"It is crucial for the advancement of political economics and innovation economics to examine the relationship between income inequality and green innovation (GI). Using the panel fixed effect model, this study investigates the influence of income inequality on GI across 97 countries from 1991 to 2018 and demonstrates a significant non-linear association between the two. The empirical data exhibit an inverted U-shape relationship, suggesting that there is an optimal degree of income inequality that optimizes GI output, and the inflection point of our overall sample is at a Gini coefficient of 0.366. Additionally, we choose a set of robustness tests to validate the results by substituting explained variables, adding omitted variables, and employing the difference and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations. Moreover, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the non-linear patterns vary among samples, with the U-shape relationship being more significant in countries with lower income, higher corruption, and weaker government effectiveness. Our findings provide government decision-makers with a crucial reference for maximizing the importance of income distribution in fostering GI and achieving sustainable development.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84058894","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the digital economy’s impact on rural household consumption upgrading. Existing studies remain mainly at the level of rural consumption scale and rarely address the consumption structure. The specific impact of the development of the digital economy on rural consumption upgrading and its mechanisms of action deserves in-depth study and consideration. We analyzed the related content using the fixed-effect model, the instrumental variable method (IV), the mediation effect model, and three-year panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). This study found that, at the scale level, the digital economy contributes to expanding rural household consumption. At the structural level, the digital economy significantly increases the share of enjoyment-oriented household consumption but has no significant effect on development-oriented consumption. Income is an important transmission mechanism for the digital economy to improve rural household consumption. Besides, the impact of the digital economy on the upgrading of rural consumption varies according to income level and age.
{"title":"RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON RURAL CONSUMPTION UPGRADING: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA FAMILY PANEL STUDIES","authors":"Qiuyang Zhou","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19511","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the digital economy’s impact on rural household consumption upgrading. Existing studies remain mainly at the level of rural consumption scale and rarely address the consumption structure. The specific impact of the development of the digital economy on rural consumption upgrading and its mechanisms of action deserves in-depth study and consideration. We analyzed the related content using the fixed-effect model, the instrumental variable method (IV), the mediation effect model, and three-year panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). This study found that, at the scale level, the digital economy contributes to expanding rural household consumption. At the structural level, the digital economy significantly increases the share of enjoyment-oriented household consumption but has no significant effect on development-oriented consumption. Income is an important transmission mechanism for the digital economy to improve rural household consumption. Besides, the impact of the digital economy on the upgrading of rural consumption varies according to income level and age.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91103286","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Laura Arenas, A. M. Gil-Lafuente, Josefa Boria Reverter
This paper uses the case of Spain to investigate whether and how disruptive technology impacts banking stock returns under a high volatility regime and a low volatility regime. For this purpose, a two-factor model with heteroscedastic Markov switching regimes has been applied. The results indicate that disruptive technologies have an impact on Spanish banking stock returns and that the effects are volatility regime dependent, having a relevant positive impact in high volatility regimes and a less relevant negative impact in low volatility regimes. These findings suggest that investors are informed about and acknowledge the advantages of disruptive technologies and will use their adoption as a business strategy to offset adverse market circumstances. During stable market conditions, on the other hand, Spanish banking seems to have less expectations about disruptive technology as a business strategy. To summarise, this paper provides insights into the role of the pricing of banking-related assets and has other relevant implications for investors that include disruptive technology or banking exposed investments in their portfolios.
{"title":"THE IMPACT OF DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY ON BANKING UNDER SWITCHING VOLATILITY REGIMES","authors":"Laura Arenas, A. M. Gil-Lafuente, Josefa Boria Reverter","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18976","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18976","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses the case of Spain to investigate whether and how disruptive technology impacts banking stock returns under a high volatility regime and a low volatility regime. For this purpose, a two-factor model with heteroscedastic Markov switching regimes has been applied. The results indicate that disruptive technologies have an impact on Spanish banking stock returns and that the effects are volatility regime dependent, having a relevant positive impact in high volatility regimes and a less relevant negative impact in low volatility regimes. These findings suggest that investors are informed about and acknowledge the advantages of disruptive technologies and will use their adoption as a business strategy to offset adverse market circumstances. During stable market conditions, on the other hand, Spanish banking seems to have less expectations about disruptive technology as a business strategy. To summarise, this paper provides insights into the role of the pricing of banking-related assets and has other relevant implications for investors that include disruptive technology or banking exposed investments in their portfolios.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84607345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study selects Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2010 to 2020 as the research sample, constructs a Difference-in-differences model to analyze the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy on enterprise green innovation. The transmission channels are tested, and the heterogeneity of this impact is further explored. It is found that the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy has significantly improved the total level, quality and quantity of enterprise green innovation, and the effect on the total level and quality is greater than the quantity. The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy can effectively alleviate the financing constraints faced by enterprises, improve the information environment of enterprises, and thus improve their green innovation. There is heterogeneity in the nature of property rights, corporate social responsibility, industry monopoly and regional marketization in the promotion of enterprise green innovation by the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy.
{"title":"DOES CAPITAL MARKET OPENING PROMOTE ENTERPRISE GREEN INNOVATION? EVIDENCE FROM SHANGHAI-HONG KONG STOCK CONNECT AND SHENZHEN-HONG KONG STOCK CONNECT","authors":"Yanwei Lyu, Zuoan Wang, Jinning Zhang","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19424","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19424","url":null,"abstract":"This study selects Chinese A-share listed enterprises from 2010 to 2020 as the research sample, constructs a Difference-in-differences model to analyze the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy on enterprise green innovation. The transmission channels are tested, and the heterogeneity of this impact is further explored. It is found that the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy has significantly improved the total level, quality and quantity of enterprise green innovation, and the effect on the total level and quality is greater than the quantity. The Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy can effectively alleviate the financing constraints faced by enterprises, improve the information environment of enterprises, and thus improve their green innovation. There is heterogeneity in the nature of property rights, corporate social responsibility, industry monopoly and regional marketization in the promotion of enterprise green innovation by the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock connect policy.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79972790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Madalena M. Travisco, Fernando A. F. Ferreira, Alexandra Milici, Nerija Banaitienė, A. Banaitis
In 2021, Banco de Portugal started a new cycle of strategic planning. The Banco de Portugal’s fourth strategic plan (i.e., PE21-25) was published at the institutional website, and defines 35 priorities/objectives grouped into five strategic guidelines. The interrelationships and causal dynamics of those guidelines and priorities are the core of the current research. The main purpose is to develop a set of actions aiming at producing recommendations for prioritizing the 35 strategic objectives using the Decision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The objective is to develop a constructivist procedure that, with the direct collaboration of a panel of relevant decision makers, grants the analysis objectivity and empirical substance for making recommendations at the strategic level. Contributing to the literature on central banking strategic planning is an additional objective. The results of the DEMATEL application include the identification of three priorities as central factors (i.e., high prominence and high relationship), and a hierarchical list of the PE21-25 strategic priorities analyzed, including their cause-and-effect relationships.
{"title":"SMART STRUCTURING AND MONITORING OF CAUSAL DYNAMICS BETWEEN GUIDELINES AND PRIORITIES OF BANCO DE PORTUGAL UNDER THE 2021-25 STRATEGIC PLAN","authors":"Madalena M. Travisco, Fernando A. F. Ferreira, Alexandra Milici, Nerija Banaitienė, A. Banaitis","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19319","url":null,"abstract":"In 2021, Banco de Portugal started a new cycle of strategic planning. The Banco de Portugal’s fourth strategic plan (i.e., PE21-25) was published at the institutional website, and defines 35 priorities/objectives grouped into five strategic guidelines. The interrelationships and causal dynamics of those guidelines and priorities are the core of the current research. The main purpose is to develop a set of actions aiming at producing recommendations for prioritizing the 35 strategic objectives using the Decision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method. The objective is to develop a constructivist procedure that, with the direct collaboration of a panel of relevant decision makers, grants the analysis objectivity and empirical substance for making recommendations at the strategic level. Contributing to the literature on central banking strategic planning is an additional objective. The results of the DEMATEL application include the identification of three priorities as central factors (i.e., high prominence and high relationship), and a hierarchical list of the PE21-25 strategic priorities analyzed, including their cause-and-effect relationships.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78019295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This research aims to propose the so-called CIR#, which takes its cue from the well- known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model originally devised for pricing, as a general econometric model. To this end, we present the results on two very different time series such as Polish interest rates (subject to market sentiments) and seasonal tourism (subject to pandemic lock-down measures). For interest rates, as reference models, we consider an improved version of the CIR model (denoted CIRadj), the Hull and White model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which is often adopted whenever no structure is assumed in the data and a popular machine learning model such as the short-term memory network (LSTM). For tourism, as a benchmark, we consider seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) complemented by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) for modelling the variance, the classic Holt-Winters model and the aforementioned LSTM. Results support the claim that the CIR# performs better than the other models in all considered cases being able to deal with erratic behaviour in data.
{"title":"TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH THE CIR# MODEL: FROM HECTIC MARKETS SENTIMENTS TO REGULAR SEASONAL TOURISM","authors":"G. Orlando, Michele Bufalo","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.19294","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.19294","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to propose the so-called CIR#, which takes its cue from the well- known Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model originally devised for pricing, as a general econometric model. To this end, we present the results on two very different time series such as Polish interest rates (subject to market sentiments) and seasonal tourism (subject to pandemic lock-down measures). For interest rates, as reference models, we consider an improved version of the CIR model (denoted CIRadj), the Hull and White model, the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) which is often adopted whenever no structure is assumed in the data and a popular machine learning model such as the short-term memory network (LSTM). For tourism, as a benchmark, we consider seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) complemented by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) for modelling the variance, the classic Holt-Winters model and the aforementioned LSTM. Results support the claim that the CIR# performs better than the other models in all considered cases being able to deal with erratic behaviour in data.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73023647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shervin Zakeri, Prasenjit Chatterjee, Dimitris Konstantas, Ali Shojaei Farr
Supply chain management (SCM) has gradually evolved beyond the straightforward logic of benefits and economic viewpoints. Supplier selection and performance evaluation are the crucial strategic components of any SCM system with a substantial economic impact and risk reduction. Several conflicting factors make supplier selection a challenging multi-criteria decision-making problem. This paper introduces a method called alternative ranking with the elected nominee (ARWEN) to select suppliers in Iran’s dairy product chain store. The primary principle of ARWEN is to choose the best alternative based on the lowest change rate rather than the elected nominee. Four extensions of the ARWEN method are proposed depending upon the nature and level of information available to the decision-makers. A fifth extended version termed E-ARWEN is also recommended to consider the negative form of the elected nominee. Two novel statistical tools, the ranking performance index and the Zakeri-Konstantas distance product correlation coefficient, are also put forth to validate the ARWEN extensions’ outcomes. The results and verification of this new method are carried out through two supplier selection case examples. Comprehensive comparisons were carried out to explore the new methods’ behaviors, indicating ARWEN III and E-ARWEN have similar behavior to VIKOR, SAW, and EDAS in generating rankings.
{"title":"INTRODUCING ALTERNATIVES RANKING WITH ELECTED NOMINEE (ARWEN) METHOD: A CASE STUDY OF SUPPLIER SELECTION","authors":"Shervin Zakeri, Prasenjit Chatterjee, Dimitris Konstantas, Ali Shojaei Farr","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.18789","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.18789","url":null,"abstract":"Supply chain management (SCM) has gradually evolved beyond the straightforward logic of benefits and economic viewpoints. Supplier selection and performance evaluation are the crucial strategic components of any SCM system with a substantial economic impact and risk reduction. Several conflicting factors make supplier selection a challenging multi-criteria decision-making problem. This paper introduces a method called alternative ranking with the elected nominee (ARWEN) to select suppliers in Iran’s dairy product chain store. The primary principle of ARWEN is to choose the best alternative based on the lowest change rate rather than the elected nominee. Four extensions of the ARWEN method are proposed depending upon the nature and level of information available to the decision-makers. A fifth extended version termed E-ARWEN is also recommended to consider the negative form of the elected nominee. Two novel statistical tools, the ranking performance index and the Zakeri-Konstantas distance product correlation coefficient, are also put forth to validate the ARWEN extensions’ outcomes. The results and verification of this new method are carried out through two supplier selection case examples. Comprehensive comparisons were carried out to explore the new methods’ behaviors, indicating ARWEN III and E-ARWEN have similar behavior to VIKOR, SAW, and EDAS in generating rankings.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75267249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Our study is the first to empirically analyze the nonlinear relationship between digitalization and export value and diversification. This paper measures the digital transformation process in terms of digital connectivity, uses of the internet, e-business, e-commerce, and e-government. The various econometrics techniques are applied for the database of 23 European countries during the period 2015–2020. The vital findings should be conveyed here. First, the bottlenecks of export values could be resolved by promoting digital transformation. However, the non-linear reverted U-shaped relationship between digitalization and export diversification suggests that positive effects only appear when the digital activities, especially in digital connectivity, humans with digital skills, use of internet services, or digital public services reaches a certain threshold. Second, the positive influence of digitalization on exports stems from a reduction in export cost and export time to deal with documentary and border compliance as well as improvements in competence and quality of logistic services and quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, thus enhancing exports. Third, the role of digital connectivity and the integration of digital technology into business and commerce become especially important for export diversification.
{"title":"NONLINEAR EFFECTS OF DIGITALIZATION ON EXPORT ACTIVITIES: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES","authors":"Nguyen Thi Hong Nham, N. Bảo, Leavitt Ha","doi":"10.3846/tede.2023.17061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2023.17061","url":null,"abstract":"Our study is the first to empirically analyze the nonlinear relationship between digitalization and export value and diversification. This paper measures the digital transformation process in terms of digital connectivity, uses of the internet, e-business, e-commerce, and e-government. The various econometrics techniques are applied for the database of 23 European countries during the period 2015–2020. The vital findings should be conveyed here. First, the bottlenecks of export values could be resolved by promoting digital transformation. However, the non-linear reverted U-shaped relationship between digitalization and export diversification suggests that positive effects only appear when the digital activities, especially in digital connectivity, humans with digital skills, use of internet services, or digital public services reaches a certain threshold. Second, the positive influence of digitalization on exports stems from a reduction in export cost and export time to deal with documentary and border compliance as well as improvements in competence and quality of logistic services and quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure, thus enhancing exports. Third, the role of digital connectivity and the integration of digital technology into business and commerce become especially important for export diversification.","PeriodicalId":51460,"journal":{"name":"Technological and Economic Development of Economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.9,"publicationDate":"2023-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73905359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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