Declining response rates and increasing costs of collecting public opinion survey data have led to an increasing usage of dual-mode surveys. Revisiting foundational theories of political knowledge, issue constraint, and issue voting, we gauge the theoretical implications this methodological change has in our understanding of the public opinion and voter behavior. We see different patterns in the 2012 and 2016 American National Election Studies and observe clear mode effects in an original dual-mode survey experiment of Florida registered voters. Overall, we find that web respondents appear to be more politically knowledgeable, ideologically constrained, and have greater correspondence between issue and vote preferences compared to face-to-face or phone respondents. Survey mode matters, even with a common sampling frame.
{"title":"The Different Faces of Public Opinion: Is the American Voter Tinted by Mode?","authors":"Enrijeta Shino, Michael D. Martinez","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB003","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Declining response rates and increasing costs of collecting public opinion survey data have led to an increasing usage of dual-mode surveys. Revisiting foundational theories of political knowledge, issue constraint, and issue voting, we gauge the theoretical implications this methodological change has in our understanding of the public opinion and voter behavior. We see different patterns in the 2012 and 2016 American National Election Studies and observe clear mode effects in an original dual-mode survey experiment of Florida registered voters. Overall, we find that web respondents appear to be more politically knowledgeable, ideologically constrained, and have greater correspondence between issue and vote preferences compared to face-to-face or phone respondents. Survey mode matters, even with a common sampling frame.","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB003","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47967729","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
W. B. de Bruin, M. Galesic, Rasmus Bååth, J. de Bresser, Lars Hall, Petter Johansson, Thomas Strandberg, A. van Soest
Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature HumanBehaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 Frenchpresidential elections by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. Apotential concern is that the social circle question might predict less well in elections with largernumbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how social contacts planto vote. However, we have now found that the social circle question even performs better thanthe own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.
{"title":"Asking about social circles improves election predictions even with many political parties","authors":"W. B. de Bruin, M. Galesic, Rasmus Bååth, J. de Bresser, Lars Hall, Petter Johansson, Thomas Strandberg, A. van Soest","doi":"10.31219/osf.io/8g5ce","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/8g5ce","url":null,"abstract":"Traditionally, election polls have asked for participants’ own voting intentions. In Nature HumanBehaviour, we reported that we could improve predictions of the 2016 US and 2017 Frenchpresidential elections by asking participants how they thought their social circles would vote. Apotential concern is that the social circle question might predict less well in elections with largernumbers of political options, because it becomes harder to keep track of how social contacts planto vote. However, we have now found that the social circle question even performs better thanthe own intention question, in predictions of two elections with many political parties: The Netherlands’2017 general election and the Swedish 2018 general election.","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43330295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines how interviewers’ gender and education affect the measured level of factual political knowledge by drawing on competing theoretical frameworks: stereotype threat theory and interviewer noncompliance with the instructions. Testing these mechanisms using survey data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) and the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we find no evidence for a stereotype threat effect, but seem to observe interviewer effects resulting from interviewer non-compliance. In Germany, respondents’ measured level of knowledge was significantly higher when a male interviewer, regardless of his education, conducted the interview, compared with low educated female interviewers. This finding has implications for survey-based studies, which measure factual political knowledge, for example attempts to limit such effects should be made during the interviewer briefing.
{"title":"Do Interviewers Affect Measures of Factual Political Knowledge? Evidence from Austria and Germany","authors":"David Johann, S. Mayer","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines how interviewers’ gender and education affect the measured level of factual political knowledge by drawing on competing theoretical frameworks: stereotype threat theory and interviewer noncompliance with the instructions. Testing these mechanisms using survey data from the Austrian National Election Study (AUTNES) and the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), we find no evidence for a stereotype threat effect, but seem to observe interviewer effects resulting from interviewer non-compliance. In Germany, respondents’ measured level of knowledge was significantly higher when a male interviewer, regardless of his education, conducted the interview, compared with low educated female interviewers. This finding has implications for survey-based studies, which measure factual political knowledge, for example attempts to limit such effects should be made during the interviewer briefing.","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47679952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study answers two research questions regarding framing theory. First, what happens when frames are challenged? Second, how resistant are the opinions that initial frames induce? 1,006 participants completed an online experiment where they were randomly assigned to first view a blog post with either complementary or competitive framing on driverless cars. Participants also viewed a blog post that challenged the stance of the first blog post. Results revealed that complementary frames polarized opinions, while competitive frames neutralized framing effects. Competitive frames induced more resistant opinions than complementary frames did. Attitude and support were susceptible to new, antagonistic information. This study concludes that framing effects are ephemeral and easily challenged by different information. Media coverage of controversial issues from technology trends like driverless cars to political issues like elections are often multi-faceted, showing both complementary and competing frames of such issues. The framing literature has extensively examined how exposure to a single frame can shape attitudes (Cacciatore, Scheufele, & Iyengar, 2016), without considerations for how simultaneous exposure to two or more frames might shape attitudes (e.g., Borah, 2011). Even fewer studies have explored how exposure to different, competing information would alter attitudes (de Vreese, 2012). To realistically reflect the contemporary media environment, it is important to examine the effects of complementary and competing frames on public opinion. According to de Vreese (2012), an important question in framing studies require an answer: what happens when frames are challenged? Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Shirley S. Ho, Wee Kim Wee School of Communications and Information, Nanyang Technological University, 31 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637718, Singapore. E-mail: tsyho@ntu.edu.sg International Journal of Public Opinion Research VC The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edab001 D ow naded rom http/academ ic.p.com /ijpor/advance-arti.1093/ijpor/edab001/6134888 by N TU Lrary user on 04 M arch 2021 This study aims to answer the question by examining how complementary and competitive frames might shape opinions. Considering the abundance of information online, exposing participants to two emphases frames simultaneously emulates a more realistic situation compared with exposing participants to only one frame. Another major question in framing research pertains to: how durable are framing effects? (Baden & Lecheler, 2012). Although most studies attempt to answer this question by testing how long framing effects persist in a longitudinal sense (e.g., Chong & Druckman, 2012; Lecheler & de Vreese, 2011), this study interprets this question as whether framing effects can persist in the face of different informati
本研究回答了关于框架理论的两个研究问题。首先，当框架受到挑战时会发生什么？第二，最初的框架所引发的观点有多抗拒？1006名参与者完成了一项在线实验，随机分配他们首先查看一篇关于无人驾驶汽车的带有互补或竞争框架的博客文章。参与者还观看了一篇挑战第一篇博客文章立场的博客文章。结果表明，互补框架使意见两极分化，而竞争框架则抵消了框架效应。竞争性框架比互补性框架引起更多的抵制意见。态度和支持容易受到新的敌对信息的影响。这项研究得出结论，框架效应是短暂的，很容易受到不同信息的挑战。媒体对有争议问题的报道，从无人驾驶汽车等技术趋势到选举等政治问题，往往是多方面的，显示出这些问题的互补和竞争框架。框架文献广泛研究了暴露在单一框架下如何塑造态度（Cacciatore，Scheufele，&Iyengar，2016），而没有考虑同时暴露在两个或多个框架下如何影响态度（例如，Borah，2011）。更少的研究探讨了接触不同的、相互竞争的信息会如何改变态度（de Vreese，2012）。为了真实地反映当代媒体环境，重要的是考察互补和竞争框架对舆论的影响。根据de Vreese（2012）的说法，框架研究中的一个重要问题需要答案：当框架受到挑战时会发生什么？有关本文的信件应寄往新加坡南洋理工大学Wee Kim Wee传播与信息学院的Shirley S.Ho，地址：31 Nanyang Link，Singapore 637718。电子邮件：tsyho@ntu.edu.sg《国际舆论研究杂志》VC，作者：2021。牛津大学出版社代表世界民意研究协会出版。保留所有权利。doi:10.1093/ihpor/edab001 D ow naded from http://academy ic.p.com/ijpor/advance-arti.1093/ijpor/edap001/6134888 by N TU Lrary user on 04M arch 2021本研究旨在通过研究互补和竞争框架如何形成意见来回答这个问题。考虑到在线信息的丰富性，与只让参与者接触一个框架相比，让参与者同时接触两个重点框架模拟了更现实的情况。框架研究中的另一个主要问题涉及：框架效果的持久性如何？（Baden&Lecheler，2012）。尽管大多数研究试图通过测试框架效应在纵向意义上持续多久来回答这个问题（例如，Chong&Druckman，2012；Lecheler&de Vreese，2011），但本研究将这个问题解释为框架效应在面对不同信息时是否能持续。为了回答这个问题，这项研究让参与者接受第二种刺激，向参与者提供不同的信息，以探索当受到质疑时，意见会如何变化。具体而言，本研究运用框架理论和认知失调理论，考察了不同类型的框架对无人驾驶汽车的态度和对无人驾驶车的支持所产生的框架效应及其持久性。此外，由于认知失调理论（Festinger，1957）认为，持有既定观点的个人可能会忽视与他们当前信仰相矛盾的不同信息，这可能会使框架效应变得非常持久。或者，面对不同的信息，个人可能会忽视现有的信念，从而使框架效应变得短暂。这项研究利用新加坡无人驾驶汽车的背景来检验框架效应。政策制定者和科学家预测，无人驾驶汽车的广泛使用可以通过消除人为错误（Miles，2018）和缓解交通拥堵（自动驾驶汽车，2019）来减少交通事故。此外，无人驾驶汽车的燃油消耗效率更高，有助于保护环境（Worland，2016）。然而，无人驾驶汽车也可能会减少送货工作，无法对意外事件做出自发反应（Miles，2018）。无人驾驶汽车的支持和反对论点使其成为框架研究的合适背景。研究向新加坡公众宣传无人驾驶汽车的不同策略也很及时。从2022年起，新加坡的三个地区将准备将无人驾驶汽车作为日常通勤选择（Lim，2017）。新加坡政府预计，在10-15年内，自动驾驶技术将为广泛应用做好准备（Cheah，2017）。因此，这项研究将为利益相关者向公众传播无人驾驶汽车的最佳实践提供见解。
{"title":"Complementary and competitive framing of driverless cars: framing effects, attitude volatility, or attitude resistance?","authors":"S. Ho","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB001","url":null,"abstract":"This study answers two research questions regarding framing theory. First, what happens when frames are challenged? Second, how resistant are the opinions that initial frames induce? 1,006 participants completed an online experiment where they were randomly assigned to first view a blog post with either complementary or competitive framing on driverless cars. Participants also viewed a blog post that challenged the stance of the first blog post. Results revealed that complementary frames polarized opinions, while competitive frames neutralized framing effects. Competitive frames induced more resistant opinions than complementary frames did. Attitude and support were susceptible to new, antagonistic information. This study concludes that framing effects are ephemeral and easily challenged by different information. Media coverage of controversial issues from technology trends like driverless cars to political issues like elections are often multi-faceted, showing both complementary and competing frames of such issues. The framing literature has extensively examined how exposure to a single frame can shape attitudes (Cacciatore, Scheufele, & Iyengar, 2016), without considerations for how simultaneous exposure to two or more frames might shape attitudes (e.g., Borah, 2011). Even fewer studies have explored how exposure to different, competing information would alter attitudes (de Vreese, 2012). To realistically reflect the contemporary media environment, it is important to examine the effects of complementary and competing frames on public opinion. According to de Vreese (2012), an important question in framing studies require an answer: what happens when frames are challenged? Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to Shirley S. Ho, Wee Kim Wee School of Communications and Information, Nanyang Technological University, 31 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637718, Singapore. E-mail: tsyho@ntu.edu.sg International Journal of Public Opinion Research VC The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research. All rights reserved. doi:10.1093/ijpor/edab001 D ow naded rom http/academ ic.p.com /ijpor/advance-arti.1093/ijpor/edab001/6134888 by N TU Lrary user on 04 M arch 2021 This study aims to answer the question by examining how complementary and competitive frames might shape opinions. Considering the abundance of information online, exposing participants to two emphases frames simultaneously emulates a more realistic situation compared with exposing participants to only one frame. Another major question in framing research pertains to: how durable are framing effects? (Baden & Lecheler, 2012). Although most studies attempt to answer this question by testing how long framing effects persist in a longitudinal sense (e.g., Chong & Druckman, 2012; Lecheler & de Vreese, 2011), this study interprets this question as whether framing effects can persist in the face of different informati","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAB001","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44989968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Terror threat has been theorized to affect political attitudes. Most prior studies have focused exclusively on Islamist terror threat, while effects of right-wing extremist terrorism on voting behavior have been understudied. We argue that effects on the propensity to vote (PTV) for an anti-immigration party (AIP) depend on the type of threat and is moderated by right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and internal motivation to control prejudice (IMCP). Using a cross-country experiment in Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden (N = 1,187), we find that Islamist terror threat increases PTV for AIPs amongst voters high in RWA; similarly, right-wing extremist terror threat reduces PTV for AIPs amongst participants high in RWA. IMCP did not moderate the relationship between terror threat and PTV for an AIP.
{"title":"Not All Terror Is Alike: How Right-Wing Extremist and Islamist Terror Threat Affect Anti-immigration Party Support","authors":"Laura Jacobs, J. Spanje","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA037","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Terror threat has been theorized to affect political attitudes. Most prior studies have focused exclusively on Islamist terror threat, while effects of right-wing extremist terrorism on voting behavior have been understudied. We argue that effects on the propensity to vote (PTV) for an anti-immigration party (AIP) depend on the type of threat and is moderated by right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) and internal motivation to control prejudice (IMCP). Using a cross-country experiment in Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden (N = 1,187), we find that Islamist terror threat increases PTV for AIPs amongst voters high in RWA; similarly, right-wing extremist terror threat reduces PTV for AIPs amongst participants high in RWA. IMCP did not moderate the relationship between terror threat and PTV for an AIP.","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA037","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45458565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Measuring public support for distributive justice principles: assessing the measurement quality of the Basic Social Justice Orientations scale","authors":"Arno Van Hootegem, B. Meuleman, Koenraad Abts","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA041","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45201828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matous Pilnacek, P. Tabery, Daniel Prokop, Michal Kunc
{"title":"Apportioning Uncertain Voters in Pre-Election Polls in a Multi-Party System","authors":"Matous Pilnacek, P. Tabery, Daniel Prokop, Michal Kunc","doi":"10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA027","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/IJPOR/EDAA027","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43522950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ijpor/edab029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edab029","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60880614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ijpor/edab008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edab008","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60880640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/ijpor/edab019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/edab019","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51480,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Public Opinion Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"60880585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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