Pub Date : 2022-06-01DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221083831
Michael J. Barber, J. Pope
What factors do people most associate with the partisan identity of others: group identity, political issue positions, or social behaviors? In this research note, we report the results of a conjoint experiment in which we test the predictive power of descriptive identities against other attributes such as social behaviors and issue positions. We find that when presented with a randomized biography to predict partisanship, people rely on issue positions over descriptive group identities or behaviors. Most issues outperform group affiliations and behaviors, with sexual orientation as the partial exception. We then compared these results to the correlation between the same factors in respondents’ own biographies and their own partisan identification. We find that political issues are far less important to people’s own partisan affiliations, while group identity is more predictive. We conclude that an understanding or perception of ideological concepts and their association with the political parties in others should be distinguished from adoption of such concepts by individuals themselves.
{"title":"Groups, Behaviors, and Issues as Cues of Partisan Attachments in the Public","authors":"Michael J. Barber, J. Pope","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221083831","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221083831","url":null,"abstract":"What factors do people most associate with the partisan identity of others: group identity, political issue positions, or social behaviors? In this research note, we report the results of a conjoint experiment in which we test the predictive power of descriptive identities against other attributes such as social behaviors and issue positions. We find that when presented with a randomized biography to predict partisanship, people rely on issue positions over descriptive group identities or behaviors. Most issues outperform group affiliations and behaviors, with sexual orientation as the partial exception. We then compared these results to the correlation between the same factors in respondents’ own biographies and their own partisan identification. We find that political issues are far less important to people’s own partisan affiliations, while group identity is more predictive. We conclude that an understanding or perception of ideological concepts and their association with the political parties in others should be distinguished from adoption of such concepts by individuals themselves.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"603 - 608"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43999791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-29DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221094295
D. Shaw, Lindsay Dun, Sarah Heise
Since the early 2000s, an array of experimental research has demonstrated that face-to-face canvassing is the most effective form of get-out-the-vote campaigning. Recent scholarship, however, suggests that text messaging can also have powerful mobilization effects. Can the effects of text messaging match those of canvassing? We present a field experiment gauging the effects of text messaging, canvassing, mail, and phone calls among medium propensity evangelical Christian voters in three California battleground congressional districts for the 2018 midterm election. The results show significant turnout effects associated with texting as well as any form of outreach followed by a late-October text message. This challenges the widely held notion that personalized contacting is required to get voters to the polls; rather, we find that peripheral voters—often targeted by campaigns for mobilization—may be receptive to anonymous but timely outreach.
{"title":"Mobilizing Peripheral Partisan Voters: A Field Experimental Analysis From Three California Congressional Election Campaigns","authors":"D. Shaw, Lindsay Dun, Sarah Heise","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221094295","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221094295","url":null,"abstract":"Since the early 2000s, an array of experimental research has demonstrated that face-to-face canvassing is the most effective form of get-out-the-vote campaigning. Recent scholarship, however, suggests that text messaging can also have powerful mobilization effects. Can the effects of text messaging match those of canvassing? We present a field experiment gauging the effects of text messaging, canvassing, mail, and phone calls among medium propensity evangelical Christian voters in three California battleground congressional districts for the 2018 midterm election. The results show significant turnout effects associated with texting as well as any form of outreach followed by a late-October text message. This challenges the widely held notion that personalized contacting is required to get voters to the polls; rather, we find that peripheral voters—often targeted by campaigns for mobilization—may be receptive to anonymous but timely outreach.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"587 - 602"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42480833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-16DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221090753
Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina, Tatishe M. Nteta, Brian F. Schaffner, Wouter van Erve
Does the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increase Latino turnout? An ongoing debate exists regarding the mobilizing effect of Latino candidates on Latino turnout. However, scholars on both sides of this divide have, as of yet, failed to detect the critical role that a Latino candidate’s partisanship may have on Latino turnout. Using national turnout data and leveraging the exogenous shock of redistricting between 2010 and 2012, we find evidence that while the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increases turnout among Latino co-partisans, the presence of Latino congressional candidates who do not share the partisan identity of Latino voters depresses turnout. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of the reinforcing power of shared partisan and pan-ethnic identities in empowering Latinos to vote.
{"title":"The Conditional Effects of Latino Candidates and Partisanship on Latino Turnout","authors":"Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina, Tatishe M. Nteta, Brian F. Schaffner, Wouter van Erve","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221090753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221090753","url":null,"abstract":"Does the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increase Latino turnout? An ongoing debate exists regarding the mobilizing effect of Latino candidates on Latino turnout. However, scholars on both sides of this divide have, as of yet, failed to detect the critical role that a Latino candidate’s partisanship may have on Latino turnout. Using national turnout data and leveraging the exogenous shock of redistricting between 2010 and 2012, we find evidence that while the presence of a Latino congressional candidate increases turnout among Latino co-partisans, the presence of Latino congressional candidates who do not share the partisan identity of Latino voters depresses turnout. We conclude by emphasizing the importance of the reinforcing power of shared partisan and pan-ethnic identities in empowering Latinos to vote.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"723 - 730"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42021353","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-16DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221088844
Amanda Weiner, Ariel Zellman
To what extent do white nationalists influence Congressional representative conservatism? Although ethnocentrism, out-group prejudice, and racial threats strongly predict American political attitudes and voter behavior, how social movements predicated on these beliefs shape political outcomes is rarely considered. We argue that white nationalist activities significantly contribute to the radicalization of Congressional representatives’ policy agendas in a manner non-reducible to demographic or socioeconomic conditions. By mobilizing white voters against racial status threats, they indirectly compel politicians to adopt more radically conservative agendas. We quantitatively test these propositions by examining distributions of white nationalist groups in the American South against Congressional representative conservatism from 2010–2017. Analyses reveal that white nationalists indeed appear to significantly impact representative radical conservatism, even controlling for numerous factors commonly theorized to explain their rise. In doing so, we contribute to emerging insights on the political influence of the radical right on the contemporary American conservative “mainstream.”
{"title":"Mobilizing the White: White Nationalism and Congressional Politics in the American South","authors":"Amanda Weiner, Ariel Zellman","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221088844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221088844","url":null,"abstract":"To what extent do white nationalists influence Congressional representative conservatism? Although ethnocentrism, out-group prejudice, and racial threats strongly predict American political attitudes and voter behavior, how social movements predicated on these beliefs shape political outcomes is rarely considered. We argue that white nationalist activities significantly contribute to the radicalization of Congressional representatives’ policy agendas in a manner non-reducible to demographic or socioeconomic conditions. By mobilizing white voters against racial status threats, they indirectly compel politicians to adopt more radically conservative agendas. We quantitatively test these propositions by examining distributions of white nationalist groups in the American South against Congressional representative conservatism from 2010–2017. Analyses reveal that white nationalists indeed appear to significantly impact representative radical conservatism, even controlling for numerous factors commonly theorized to explain their rise. In doing so, we contribute to emerging insights on the political influence of the radical right on the contemporary American conservative “mainstream.”","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"707 - 722"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49612638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-05-01DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221090488
P. Jones, Amy B. Becker
As with public opinion on other policy issues, attitudes toward transgender rights are partly driven by “group-centric” reasoning. Those with more positive feelings toward transgender people are more likely to support policies that protect their rights. But linking group affect with policies impacting members of that group requires some knowledge and understanding of politics, which not all citizens possess to the same extent. In this research note, we demonstrate that political awareness moderates the relationship between affect toward transgender people and support for their civil rights. ANES data from 2016 and 2020 show that more politically sophisticated respondents were more likely to connect their views of transgender people with policies that protect their rights. These results suggest that group-centric thinking is most prevalent among the most, not least, politically aware.
{"title":"Affect Toward Transgender People, Political Awareness, and Support for Transgender Rights","authors":"P. Jones, Amy B. Becker","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221090488","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221090488","url":null,"abstract":"As with public opinion on other policy issues, attitudes toward transgender rights are partly driven by “group-centric” reasoning. Those with more positive feelings toward transgender people are more likely to support policies that protect their rights. But linking group affect with policies impacting members of that group requires some knowledge and understanding of politics, which not all citizens possess to the same extent. In this research note, we demonstrate that political awareness moderates the relationship between affect toward transgender people and support for their civil rights. ANES data from 2016 and 2020 show that more politically sophisticated respondents were more likely to connect their views of transgender people with policies that protect their rights. These results suggest that group-centric thinking is most prevalent among the most, not least, politically aware.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"51 1","pages":"76 - 80"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46873947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-22DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221087601
James J. Fahey, Damon C. Roberts, S. Utych
Political scientists have long been interested in the effects that media framings have on support or tolerance for controversial speech. In recent years, the concept of cancel culture has complicated our understanding of free speech. In particular, the modern Republican Party under Donald Trump has made “fighting cancel culture” a cornerstone of its electoral strategy. We expect that when extremist groups invoke cancel culture as a reason for their alleged censorship, support for their free speech rights among Republicans should increase. We use a nationally representative survey experiment to assess whether individuals’ opposition to cancel culture is principled or contingent on the ideological identity of the speaker. We show that framing free speech restrictions as the consequence of cancel culture does not increase support for free speech among Republicans. Further, when left-wing groups utilize the cancel culture framing, Republicans become even less supportive of those groups’ free speech rights.
{"title":"Principled or Partisan? The Effect of Cancel Culture Framings on Support for Free Speech","authors":"James J. Fahey, Damon C. Roberts, S. Utych","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221087601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221087601","url":null,"abstract":"Political scientists have long been interested in the effects that media framings have on support or tolerance for controversial speech. In recent years, the concept of cancel culture has complicated our understanding of free speech. In particular, the modern Republican Party under Donald Trump has made “fighting cancel culture” a cornerstone of its electoral strategy. We expect that when extremist groups invoke cancel culture as a reason for their alleged censorship, support for their free speech rights among Republicans should increase. We use a nationally representative survey experiment to assess whether individuals’ opposition to cancel culture is principled or contingent on the ideological identity of the speaker. We show that framing free speech restrictions as the consequence of cancel culture does not increase support for free speech among Republicans. Further, when left-wing groups utilize the cancel culture framing, Republicans become even less supportive of those groups’ free speech rights.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"51 1","pages":"69 - 75"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46544514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-21DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221082638
Anna Gunderson
Conversations around criminal legal reform often center around prosecutorial discretion. Yet, we know little about how the demographic characteristics of prosecutors influence case outcomes and race- and sex-based carceral disparities. I investigate this question using an original dataset of all county prosecutors in the US in 2001 and 2007 and find some differences between non-white and female prosecutors and white and male prosecutors. Black prosecutors are associated with fewer felony closures and convictions, Latinx prosecutors are associated with lower Latinx jail populations, and female prosecutors are associated with lower female and Black jail populations, lower Black prison admissions, and lower jail admissions rates. These findings suggest prosecutorial discretion is an important plank of criminal legal reform, and increasing the diversity of those offices may act as an important and initial step to limit the negative effects of the carceral state on particular communities.
{"title":"Descriptive Representation and Prosecutorial Discretion: Race, Sex, and Carceral Disparities","authors":"Anna Gunderson","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221082638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221082638","url":null,"abstract":"Conversations around criminal legal reform often center around prosecutorial discretion. Yet, we know little about how the demographic characteristics of prosecutors influence case outcomes and race- and sex-based carceral disparities. I investigate this question using an original dataset of all county prosecutors in the US in 2001 and 2007 and find some differences between non-white and female prosecutors and white and male prosecutors. Black prosecutors are associated with fewer felony closures and convictions, Latinx prosecutors are associated with lower Latinx jail populations, and female prosecutors are associated with lower female and Black jail populations, lower Black prison admissions, and lower jail admissions rates. These findings suggest prosecutorial discretion is an important plank of criminal legal reform, and increasing the diversity of those offices may act as an important and initial step to limit the negative effects of the carceral state on particular communities.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"823 - 836"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47310876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-11DOI: 10.1177/1532673X211064884
Damon C. Roberts, S. Utych
Gendered language is seemingly found everywhere in American politics. We test the impact that gendered language has on voter support for a candidate, using a validated dictionary of words rated as highly masculine or feminine. In three experimental studies, we find that the use of feminine language causes individuals to perceive political candidates as more liberal. Additionally, liberals tend to prefer candidates who use feminine language, and conservatives prefer candidates who use masculine language, regardless of the sex of the candidate. These effects are mostly mediated, however, by perceptions of candidate ideology caused by the use of language.
{"title":"A Delicate Hand or Two-Fisted Aggression? How Gendered Language Influences Candidate Perceptions","authors":"Damon C. Roberts, S. Utych","doi":"10.1177/1532673X211064884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211064884","url":null,"abstract":"Gendered language is seemingly found everywhere in American politics. We test the impact that gendered language has on voter support for a candidate, using a validated dictionary of words rated as highly masculine or feminine. In three experimental studies, we find that the use of feminine language causes individuals to perceive political candidates as more liberal. Additionally, liberals tend to prefer candidates who use feminine language, and conservatives prefer candidates who use masculine language, regardless of the sex of the candidate. These effects are mostly mediated, however, by perceptions of candidate ideology caused by the use of language.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"353 - 365"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49388143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-05DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221078276
David H. Bearce, Ken Stallman
This paper considers a messaging strategy to shift immigration preferences, arguing that if citizen attitudes in this issue-area build from several dimensions, then a positive message related to each dimension should move attitudes in a more favorable direction. It tests the first part using original survey data with directly comparable questions about whether immigration hurts/helps American culture/the economy/national security, providing evidence that all three dimensions currently support the preferences of voting-age citizens. It tests the second part by randomly presenting another sample with different messages about how labor immigration strengthens national security, creates new jobs, or enhances culture, finding that all three reduce anti-immigration attitudes with significant effects even within groups that are more opposed to immigration (namely, white Americans, those with less education, and partisan Republicans).
{"title":"Immigration Attitudes and Positive Messaging: Evidence From the United States","authors":"David H. Bearce, Ken Stallman","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221078276","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221078276","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers a messaging strategy to shift immigration preferences, arguing that if citizen attitudes in this issue-area build from several dimensions, then a positive message related to each dimension should move attitudes in a more favorable direction. It tests the first part using original survey data with directly comparable questions about whether immigration hurts/helps American culture/the economy/national security, providing evidence that all three dimensions currently support the preferences of voting-age citizens. It tests the second part by randomly presenting another sample with different messages about how labor immigration strengthens national security, creates new jobs, or enhances culture, finding that all three reduce anti-immigration attitudes with significant effects even within groups that are more opposed to immigration (namely, white Americans, those with less education, and partisan Republicans).","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"51 1","pages":"127 - 138"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41864199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-30DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221082319
J. Butcher
Legislative turnover is indicative of political careerism, district competitiveness, and the strength of the incumbency advantage. Although there are many examinations of legislative turnover in U.S. state legislatures, there has not been an update in nearly 2 decades. One limitation of the existing turnover measures is the inability to distinguish between naturally occurring turnover and the artificial turnover caused by term limits. In this research note, I present an update to legislative turnover from 2002 to 2018 and discuss the importance of using updated data, as well as avenues for future research.
{"title":"Be Careful what You Count: Updating Legislative Turnover in the 50 States","authors":"J. Butcher","doi":"10.1177/1532673X221082319","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221082319","url":null,"abstract":"Legislative turnover is indicative of political careerism, district competitiveness, and the strength of the incumbency advantage. Although there are many examinations of legislative turnover in U.S. state legislatures, there has not been an update in nearly 2 decades. One limitation of the existing turnover measures is the inability to distinguish between naturally occurring turnover and the artificial turnover caused by term limits. In this research note, I present an update to legislative turnover from 2002 to 2018 and discuss the importance of using updated data, as well as avenues for future research.","PeriodicalId":51482,"journal":{"name":"American Politics Research","volume":"50 1","pages":"503 - 510"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5,"publicationDate":"2022-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44626455","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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