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Do Political Beliefs Drive Environment Selection? 政治信仰推动环境选择吗?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-07 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221112394
Lauren Ratliff Santoro
Scholars interested in understanding if and to what extent social environments influence individual political behavior are plagued by the reality that individuals construct their social environments. Though there is acknowledgement that this construction is determined by homophily – likes associating with likes – the extent to which political beliefs drive environment selection is yet untested. This paper seeks to understand the extent to which political beliefs inform individuals’ decisions on which social environments to select into. To do so, I follow individuals as they select into social environments across their first year in a university setting – first contacting them before they are embedded in a new social environment, tracking their selections into friendships and groups, and observing how their attitudes change over a year and a half period. Results demonstrate that political beliefs can be significant predictors of selection into non-political social contexts, especially for those with the strongest beliefs about politics.
有兴趣了解社会环境是否以及在多大程度上影响个人政治行为的学者受到个人构建社会环境的现实的困扰。尽管有人承认这种结构是由同一性决定的——喜欢与喜欢联系在一起——但政治信仰在多大程度上推动环境选择还没有经过测试。本文试图了解政治信仰在多大程度上影响个人选择进入哪个社会环境的决定。为此,我跟踪个人在大学第一年选择进入社会环境的情况——在他们融入新的社会环境之前先联系他们,跟踪他们对友谊和团体的选择,并观察他们的态度在一年半的时间里如何变化。研究结果表明,政治信仰可以成为选择进入非政治社会环境的重要预测因素,尤其是对于那些对政治信仰最强的人来说。
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引用次数: 1
Who Feels the Bern? An Analysis of Support for Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic Primary 谁感受到了伯尔尼?2020年民主党初选对伯尼·桑德斯的支持分析
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-02 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221112390
Christopher Altamura, B. Oliver
Researchers remain divided over the cause of Bernie Sanders’ strong appeal in recent Democratic primaries, alternately positing identity or ideology as decisive drivers of Sanders support. Using data from 2020 Nationscape, we conduct linear probability models that show how identity, ideology, and their interaction all explain Sanders support. Demographically, we find that Sanders voters are disproportionately young, Hispanic, and Independent. Sanders voters also differ significantly from other Democratic primary voters across several ideology variables, and are especially supportive of policies that were central to Sanders’ campaign, such as providing government-run health insurance to all Americans. Finally, we demonstrate that age cohort, the most important predictor of Sanders support, has an effect that is highly dependent upon key ideology variables. Overall, those who did not vote for Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary are quite demographically and ideologically distinct from those voters that “felt the Bern.”
对于伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在最近的民主党初选中获得强烈吸引力的原因,研究人员仍然存在分歧,有人认为身份或意识形态是支持桑德斯的决定性因素。使用2020年Nationscape的数据,我们进行了线性概率模型,显示身份、意识形态及其相互作用如何解释桑德斯的支持。从人口统计学上看,我们发现桑德斯的选民大多是年轻人、西班牙裔和无党派人士。桑德斯的选民在几个意识形态变量上也与其他民主党初选选民有很大不同,他们尤其支持桑德斯竞选的核心政策,比如向所有美国人提供政府运营的医疗保险。最后,我们证明,年龄队列是桑德斯支持率最重要的预测指标,其影响高度依赖于关键的意识形态变量。总的来说,那些在2020年民主党初选中没有投票给桑德斯的人在人口统计学和意识形态上与那些“感受到伯尔尼”的选民截然不同。
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引用次数: 0
White Constituents and Congressional Voting 白人选民和国会投票
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221087159
Eric R. Hansen
Why do some members of Congress vote more on the extremes of their party than others? I argue that lawmakers representing more homogeneously white districts have greater electoral incentive to moderate their voting records, since the two parties compete more for support of white voters than for the support of minority voters. I provide evidence using roll-call votes from the U.S. House and Senate. I find members representing more homogeneously white districts have more moderate voting records, a finding that holds for Democrats and Republicans. I explore two potential mechanisms: legislator responsiveness and electoral punishment. While legislators do not seem to adjust their voting behavior in response to short-term changes in district racial composition, more homogeneously white districts are found to assess larger vote share penalties on more extreme candidates in general elections. The findings have implications for our understanding of race, representation, and electoral accountability.
为什么有些国会议员比其他人更倾向于支持本党的极端观点?我认为,代表更多白人选区的议员有更大的选举动机来缓和他们的投票记录,因为两党更多地争夺白人选民的支持,而不是少数族裔选民的支持。我用美国参众两院的唱名表决提供证据。我发现,白人选区的议员投票记录更温和,这一发现对民主党人和共和党人都适用。我探讨了两种潜在的机制:立法者的反应和选举惩罚。虽然议员们似乎并没有根据地区种族构成的短期变化来调整他们的投票行为,但研究发现,在白人更均匀的地区,在大选中对更极端的候选人进行了更大的投票份额惩罚。这些发现对我们理解种族、代表制和选举责任具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 1
Going Nuclear: Federalist Society Affiliated Judicial Nominees’ Prospects and a New Era of Confirmation Politics1 走向核:联邦党人协会附属司法提名人的前景和确认政治的新时代1
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-28 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221109534
Christin Bird, Zachary A. McGee
Significant changes to the federal judicial confirmation process have manifested over the past decade, including multiple procedural reforms in the United States Senate. We argue the “nuclear option,” the reduction of the vote-threshold required to proceed to a final confirmation vote on judicial nominees (i.e., to invoke cloture) from three-fifths to a simple majority, contributed to a renewed escalation of partisan confirmation battles on which the Federalist Society capitalized. Pundits and politicians alike show growing concern about the role of interest groups, especially those associated with the conservative legal movement, in judicial nominations. The intersection of these two sets of changes raises questions about the contemporary judicial nominations process. Utilizing a novel dataset of Federalist Society (FedSoc) affiliates drawn from event listings (1993–2020), we analyze the interactive role of FedSoc affiliation with Senate procedural changes to the judicial confirmation process. We find affiliation with the Federalist Society, after the initial nuclear option was implemented, increases the probability of a circuit court nominee’s confirmation by approximately 20%.
在过去十年中,联邦司法确认程序发生了重大变化,包括美国参议院的多项程序改革。我们认为,“核选项”,即将对司法提名人进行最终确认投票(即援引cloture)所需的投票门槛从五分之三降低到简单多数,导致了联邦党人协会利用的党派确认战的再次升级。专家和政界人士都越来越关注利益集团,尤其是那些与保守派法律运动有关的利益集团在司法提名中的作用。这两组变化的交叉引发了对当代司法提名程序的质疑。利用从事件列表(1993-2020)中提取的联邦党人协会(FedSoc)附属机构的新数据集,我们分析了FedSoc附属机构与参议院司法确认程序变更的互动作用。我们发现,在最初的核选项实施后,加入联邦党人协会会使巡回法院提名人获得确认的可能性增加约20%。
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引用次数: 2
Still the Same? Revealed Preferences and Ideological Self-Perception Among Former Members of Congress 还是一样吗?前国会议员透露的偏好和意识形态自我认知
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221106425
Adam J. Ramey, Jonathan Klingler, Gary E. Hollibaugh
For years, countless scholars have posited the role of constituency and party pressure on legislators’ roll call voting records. Indeed, though popular estimates of legislators’ preferences often come from roll call data (e.g., DW-NOMINATE scores), most scholars are careful to note that these are not necessarily measures of ideology per se but rather of legislators’ revealed preferences—that is, they reflect both legislators’ ideological commitments as well as the influence of party and constituency. In this paper, we offer fairly robust evidence that existing measures of legislator behavior may be closer to their preferences than once thought. Using a novel survey of former members of the House of Representatives, we leverage the severing of the electoral connection and lack of institutional party pressure to show that legislators’ preferences as measured by existing methods closely mirror their own perceptions of themselves.
多年来,无数学者认为选区和政党的压力对立法者的唱名投票记录起到了作用。事实上,尽管对立法者偏好的普遍估计通常来自点名数据(例如,DW-NOMINATE分数),但大多数学者都谨慎地指出,这些不一定是意识形态本身的衡量标准,而是立法者揭示的偏好的衡量标准——也就是说,它们既反映了立法者的意识形态承诺,也反映了政党和选民的影响。在本文中,我们提供了相当有力的证据,证明现有的立法者行为衡量标准可能比以前认为的更接近他们的偏好。我们对前众议院议员进行了一项新颖的调查,利用选举联系的切断和缺乏制度性政党压力来表明,用现有方法衡量的立法者的偏好密切反映了他们对自己的看法。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between Racial Attitudes and Perceived Economic Threat Among Whites: A Three Study Analysis 白人种族态度与感知经济威胁的关系:一项三项研究分析
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221110038
S. Lindsay
Multiple theoretical orientations propose a link between economic anxiety and racial attitudes. This article explores this link using three studies. The first study uses observational data from the 2016 CCES and ANES to determine whether or not anticipating a loss in income in the coming year is associated with negative racial affect. The second study uses observational data from the 2020 CCES to determine whether or not perceiving a greater risk of personal discrimination is associated with racial resentment. The last uses an original survey experiment from the 2020 CCES to gain insight into how priming intergroup competition shapes whites’ racial attitudes. These studies find an association between perceived economic threat and negative racial attitudes. However, the way respondents perceive economic threats seems to be largely shaped by partisan identification with Republicans perceiving greater levels of threat. They also suggest that material and symbolic threats may be mutually reinforcing. These findings support the claim that racial attitudes are deeply connected to economic anxieties and provide insight into how party identification shapes our psychology.
多种理论取向提出了经济焦虑与种族态度之间的联系。本文通过三项研究来探讨这一联系。第一项研究使用2016年CCES和ANES的观察数据来确定预计来年收入损失是否与负面种族影响有关。第二项研究使用2020年CCES的观察数据来确定感知到更大的个人歧视风险是否与种族怨恨有关。最后一篇文章使用了2020年CCES的原始调查实验,以深入了解启动群体间竞争如何塑造白人的种族态度。这些研究发现,感知到的经济威胁与消极的种族态度之间存在关联。然而,受访者对经济威胁的看法似乎在很大程度上受到党派认同的影响,共和党人认为经济威胁更大。它们还表明,物质威胁和象征性威胁可能是相辅相成的。这些发现支持了种族态度与经济焦虑密切相关的说法,并为政党认同如何塑造我们的心理提供了洞见。
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引用次数: 0
Incivility in Congressional Tweets 国会推文中的无礼行为
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221109516
Andy Ballard, Ryan DeTamble, Spencer Dorsey, M. Heseltine, Marcus Johnson
Civility in political discourse is often thought to be necessary for deliberation and a healthy democracy. However, incivility is on the rise in political discourse in the United States—even from members of Congress—suggesting that political incivility may in fact be a tool to be used strategically. When and why, then, do members of Congress use incivility in their rhetoric? We develop and test expectations for the usage of political incivility by members of Congress on Twitter, using every tweet sent by a member of Congress from 2009–2020 coded for the presence of uncivil rhetoric via a novel application of transformer models for natural language processing. We find that more ideologically extreme members, those in safer electoral situations, and those who are in a position of political opposition are more likely to use incivility in their tweets, and that uncivil tweets increase engagement with members’ messages.
政治话语中的文明往往被认为是深思熟虑和健康民主所必需的。然而,在美国的政治话语中,甚至来自国会议员的不文明行为也在增加,这表明政治不文明实际上可能是一种可以战略性使用的工具。那么,国会议员何时以及为什么在他们的言论中使用不文明的言辞呢?我们开发并测试了对国会议员在推特上使用政治不文明的预期,使用国会议员在2009年至2020年期间发送的每一条推文,通过自然语言处理的转换模型的新颖应用,对不文明言论的存在进行编码。我们发现,意识形态更极端的成员、处于更安全选举环境中的成员和处于政治反对派地位的成员更有可能在推文中使用不文明的言论,而不文明的推文增加了成员信息的参与度。
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引用次数: 1
Are Shifts in Same-Sex Marriage Attitudes Associated With Declines in Religious Behavior and Affiliation? 同性婚姻态度的转变与宗教行为和信仰的减少有关吗?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-12 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221106431
Paul A. Djupe, Jacob R. Neiheisel
The anti-LGBTQ politics of the Religious Right has been implicated as one of the critical forces promoting the rise of disaffiliation from religion. The association seems plain given the rapid rise of the nones among younger cohorts of Americans – a group which also holds the most pro-LGBTQ attitudes. However, little work actually tests the link between shifting attitudes on same-sex marriage and declining religious behavior and affiliation. Drawing on the Portraits of American Life Panel study with waves in 2006 and 2012, we use appropriate measures to document the religious effects of changing views on same-sex marriage. We find that while shifting views did have a negative effect on church attendance and affiliation, these effects were not limited to shifts toward support for same-sex marriage and were not limited to liberals.
宗教右翼的反lgbtq政治被认为是推动脱离宗教兴起的关键力量之一。考虑到非同性恋者在美国年轻群体中的迅速增加,这种联系似乎很明显——这一群体也持有最支持lgbtq的态度。然而,很少有研究真正检验人们对同性婚姻态度的转变与宗教行为和信仰的减少之间的联系。根据2006年和2012年美国生活小组的研究,我们使用适当的方法来记录对同性婚姻的看法变化对宗教的影响。我们发现,虽然观点的转变确实对教会出席率和信仰有负面影响,但这些影响并不局限于支持同性婚姻的转变,也不局限于自由派。
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引用次数: 0
The Limits of Issue Ownership in a Polarized Era 两极分化时代发行所有制的局限性
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-03 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221106435
Jamie M. Wright, Scott Clifford, Elizabeth N. Simas
The Democratic and Republican parties have longstanding reputations for their abilities to competently handle particular issues. These reputations help to simplify voter decision-making. Voters need only to determine which issues are most important in an election, then support the party with the strongest reputation for handling those issues. As elite polarization has grown in recent decades, the parties’ reputations should be even clearer, facilitating their use in vote choice. However, the corresponding partisan polarization in the electorate should limit the breadth of issue ownership beliefs, as well as the impact of these beliefs on vote choice. In this manuscript, we use a novel survey experiment to prime the parties’ owned issues. Our results show that the prime causes a shift in intended vote choice among pure independents, but not among partisans. These findings suggest that polarization has not erased issue ownership, but that partisanship has narrowed its potential impact.
民主党和共和党长期以来以其胜任处理特定问题的能力而闻名。这些声誉有助于简化选民的决策。选民只需要确定哪些问题在选举中最重要,然后支持在处理这些问题方面最负盛名的政党。近几十年来,随着精英阶层两极分化的加剧,政党的声誉应该更加清晰,这有助于他们在选票选择中的使用。然而,选民中相应的党派两极分化应该限制问题所有权信念的广度,以及这些信念对选票选择的影响。在这份手稿中,我们使用了一个新颖的调查实验来对各方拥有的问题进行初步调查。我们的结果表明,在纯粹的独立人士中,首要因素导致了预期投票选择的转变,但在党派人士中却没有。这些发现表明,两极分化并没有消除问题的所有权,但党派之争已经缩小了其潜在影响。
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引用次数: 2
Tell Us How You Feel: Emotional Appeals for Votes in Presidential Primaries 告诉我们你的感受:在总统初选中对选票的情感诉求
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X221106432
Z. Scott, J. McDonald
Emotions are an important feature of representation, as they allow politicians to reflect the feelings of their constituents. Yet studies of elites’ use of emotions have been confined to examinations of strategic incentives. We build on these studies by incorporating elites’ group identities as a theoretical consideration. Our theory blends perspectives on the group identities of partisanship, gender, and race with political psychology research on emotions. We hypothesize that Republicans use more fear and disgust language than Democrats, that women candidates use more joy language than men candidates, and that Black candidates use less anger than white candidates. We test these hypotheses by applying emotional sentiment dictionaries to a corpus of primary candidates’ speeches. The evidence supports our claim that Republicans use more fear and that women use more joy, but we find no significant differences in the use of disgust and anger language by partisanship and race, respectively.
情绪是代表性的一个重要特征,因为情绪可以让政治家反映选民的感受。然而,对精英使用情感的研究仅限于对战略激励的考察。我们在这些研究的基础上,将精英群体身份纳入理论考量。我们的理论将党派、性别和种族的群体身份观点与情绪的政治心理学研究相结合。我们假设共和党人比民主党人使用更多的恐惧和厌恶语言,女性候选人比男性候选人使用更多的喜悦语言,黑人候选人比白人候选人使用更少的愤怒。我们通过将情感词典应用于主要候选人的演讲语料库来检验这些假设。证据支持我们的说法,即共和党人使用更多的恐惧,女性使用更多的快乐,但我们发现,党派和种族在使用厌恶和愤怒语言方面没有显著差异。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
American Politics Research
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