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The Effects of Targeted Campaign Messages on Candidate Evaluations 针对性竞选信息对候选人评价的影响
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206144
Taewoo Kang
Campaigns use different strategies across communication channels. How does this affect voters? What are the consequences of being exposed to targeted campaign messages? How do voters react when they are exposed to campaign messages that are aimed at different voters? Does mistargeting always punish candidates or does it reward them under certain conditions? In a survey experiment relying on a sample of 1137 U.S. adults, participants evaluated a fictional candidate running for the U.S. Senate after being exposed to various sets of campaign messages originally delivered via e-mail and TV. A fictional candidate was used to prevent the effects of prior knowledge while the campaign information given to the participants was based on a real campaign’s e-mails and television ads to achieve a degree of realism. Voters perceive the same candidate differently depending on the messages they receive. Politicians may benefit or suffer from mistargeting.
活动在不同的沟通渠道中使用不同的策略。这对选民有什么影响?暴露于有针对性的活动信息的后果是什么?当选民接触到针对不同选民的竞选信息时,他们会有什么反应?错误的目标总是惩罚候选人还是在某些条件下奖励他们?在一项以1137名美国成年人为样本的调查实验中,参与者在观看了最初通过电子邮件和电视传递的各种竞选信息后,对一个竞选美国参议员的虚构候选人进行了评估。一个虚构的候选人被用来防止先验知识的影响,而给参与者的竞选信息是基于真实的竞选电子邮件和电视广告,以达到一定程度的真实性。选民对同一候选人的看法,取决于他们收到的信息。政客们可能受益于错误的目标,也可能遭受损失。
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引用次数: 0
Party Realignment, Education, and the Turnout Advantage: Revisiting the Partisan Effect of Turnout 政党重组、教育和投票率优势:重新审视投票率的党派效应
3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-09 DOI: 10.1177/1532673x231206149
Spencer Goidel, Thiago MQ Moreira, Brenna Armstrong
Party realignment is occurring along the lines of education in the United States. As college-educated voters increasingly align with the Democratic Party, it is necessary to revisit the partisan effect of turnout. We predict that, since 2016, the Democratic Party no longer benefits from higher turnout. Using validated voter turnout from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we simulate election results across turnout rates for the 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Our findings show that increases in turnout greatly benefit the Democratic Party in the pre-Trump era. However, this pattern has drastically changed. In 2016, 2018, and 2020, the Democratic Party sees a much smaller gain in vote share as simulated turnout increases, but also a large vote share advantage when voter turnout is extremely low. These results indicate that continued party realignment along the lines of education could lead to a persistent reversal in the expected partisan effect of turnout—where Democrats perform better in low-turnout local or primary elections and Republicans perform better in high-turnout general elections.
在美国,随着教育的发展,党派的重组也在发生。随着受过大学教育的选民越来越多地与民主党结盟,有必要重新审视投票率的党派效应。我们预测,自2016年以来,民主党不再从更高的投票率中受益。利用来自合作选举研究(CES)的有效选民投票率,我们模拟了2010年、2012年、2014年、2016年、2018年和2020年选举的投票率结果。我们的研究结果表明,在特朗普之前的时代,投票率的增加极大地有利于民主党。然而,这种模式已经发生了巨大的变化。在2016年、2018年和2020年,随着模拟投票率的增加,民主党的选票份额增幅要小得多,但在选民投票率极低的情况下,民主党的选票份额优势也很大。这些结果表明,继续沿着教育路线进行党派重组可能会导致预期的党派效应持续逆转——民主党人在投票率低的地方或初选中表现更好,共和党人在投票率高的大选中表现更好。
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引用次数: 0
Encouraging Black and Latinx Radio Audiences to Register to Vote: A Field Experiment 鼓励黑人和拉丁裔电台观众登记投票:一项实地实验
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231184437
Hayley Cohen, Ignacio Aguaded, Donald P. Green, Joseph L. Sutherland, Michelle A. Zee
Traditional in-person voter registration drives increase voter registration rates in minority communities but became infeasible during the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic. An alternative approach is to promote registration through mass media, such as local radio. We present results from a large-scale experiment testing the effects of radio ads on voter registration. During the run up to the November 2020 election, we identified 186 radio stations with predominantly Latinx or African American audiences; 50 randomly selected stations were assigned to a week-long advertising campaign each week for 3 weeks. Nonpartisan messages encouraged voter registration by stressing the importance of the election and featured celebrity voices. The number of new registrants rose slightly in treated areas during the week when the ads aired. No further gains were apparent one or 2 weeks later.
传统的亲自选民登记活动提高了少数族裔社区的选民登记率,但在2020年新冠肺炎疫情期间变得不可行。另一种办法是通过当地电台等大众媒体促进登记。我们展示了一项大规模实验的结果,该实验测试了广播广告对选民登记的影响。在2020年11月大选之前,我们确定了186家以拉丁裔或非裔美国人为主的广播电台;50个随机选择的电台被分配到每周为期一周的广告活动中,为期3周。非党派人士通过强调选举的重要性和名人的声音来鼓励选民登记。在广告播出的那一周,受治疗地区的新注册人数略有上升。一两周后没有明显的进一步增长。
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引用次数: 0
What Explains a Representative’s Staffing “Style”? Exploring the Relationship between Congressional Staffing Decisions and Electoral Considerations 如何解释代表的人员配置“风格”?国会人员配置决策与选举考量之间的关系探讨
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231184432
Jason S. Byers, Laine P. Shay
Students of legislative politics are divided over the relationship between electoral vulnerability and the type of “home style” members of Congress adopt in terms of their district staffing decisions. The conventional wisdom asserts that an increase in electoral vulnerability corresponds with a legislator increasing the number of district staffers. However, another body of works implies that the inverse relationship should occur. To settle these competing claims, we explore the staffing decisions of legislators serving in the House of Representatives between the 101st and 113th Congress. We find that an increase in electoral vulnerability is associated with a decrease in district staffers. These results cast doubt on the widely held view that a legislator’s electoral vulnerability results in an increase in district attentiveness at least in terms of their district staff. Additionally, our findings provide several insights into the relationship between elections and representation.
立法政治专业的学生在选举脆弱性与国会议员在选区人员配置决策方面采用的“家庭风格”之间的关系上存在分歧。传统观点认为,选举脆弱性的增加与立法者增加地区工作人员的数量相对应。然而,另一组作品暗示了相反的关系应该发生。为了解决这些相互竞争的主张,我们探讨了第101届至第113届国会期间在众议院任职的立法者的人员配置决定。我们发现,选举脆弱性的增加与地区工作人员的减少有关。这些结果让人们对一种普遍认为的观点产生了怀疑,即立法者的选举脆弱性会导致地区关注度的提高,至少在地区工作人员方面是这样。此外,我们的研究结果为选举和代表权之间的关系提供了一些见解。
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引用次数: 0
Electoral Crisis Communications: Combatting Disinformation & the Contest for Electoral Legitimacy 选举危机传播:打击虚假信息与选举合法性的竞争
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231184440
Gregory H. Winger, B. Calfano, Jelena Vićić, Richard J. Harknett
In the age of weaponized disinformation, the question for democracies is not merely who will win an election, but whether the outcome will be accepted as legitimate. To assess the challenge faced by U.S. electoral officials in convincing the public of the security of election procedure we conducted a survey experiment on a national sample of 4987 U.S. adults in the lead-up to the 2020 election. Subjects were exposed to claims about voter fraud as well as crisis communication counter-messaging attributed to election officials. We find that regardless of the messaging strategy, subjects were unmoved by the counter-messaging with partisanship being a clear predictor of increased skepticism towards election security. Our findings illustrate the difficulties election officials face in convincing the publics about election legitimacy and highlight the systemic dangers posed by electoral disinformation.
在虚假信息武器化的时代,民主国家的问题不仅在于谁将赢得选举,还在于选举结果是否合法。为了评估美国选举官员在说服公众相信选举程序安全性方面面临的挑战,我们在2020年大选前对4987名美国成年人进行了一项全国样本调查实验。受试者暴露在有关选民欺诈的指控以及选举官员的危机沟通反信息中。我们发现,无论信息传递策略如何,受试者都不会被反信息所打动,党派偏见是对选举安全怀疑增加的明显预测因素。我们的调查结果说明了选举官员在说服公众相信选举合法性方面面临的困难,并强调了选举虚假信息带来的系统性危险。
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引用次数: 0
Building Support Through the Personalization of Twitter Messages in a Permanent Campaign 通过在永久活动中个性化Twitter消息来建立支持
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231184434
S. Gaynor, J. Gimpel
Not all aspects of a campaign are issue-oriented, nor are many voters. A candidate builds mass support largely by appearing warm, friendly, and likable, not only by propagating their viewpoints on controversial issues. Based on a prominent candidate’s Twitter accounts and the associated analytics, our research analyzes the online content and reaction to every post across a four-year period, both before and after a major general election. Twitter’s analytic measures demonstrate how a campaign uses social media to accomplish very different outreach goals. Warm and non-politically oriented messages attract broad support in the form of audience likes but are not retweeted with as much frequency as messages that are less liked but more politically pointed. The undeniable popularity of personal, earnest messages underscores the power of the social media platform to present candidates in an approachable and convivial way, despite the necessity of taking positions on difficult issues.
并非竞选的所有方面都以议题为导向,许多选民也不是这样。候选人要赢得群众的支持,主要靠表现得热情、友好、讨人喜欢,而不仅仅是宣传他们对有争议问题的观点。我们的研究基于一位知名候选人的推特账户和相关分析,分析了四年期间(大选前后)的在线内容和对每条帖子的反应。Twitter的分析方法展示了一个活动如何使用社交媒体来实现不同的推广目标。温暖和非政治导向的信息以观众点赞的形式吸引了广泛的支持,但转发频率不如那些点赞较少但更具政治针对性的信息高。个人的、诚挚的信息无可否认地广受欢迎,这凸显了社交媒体平台以平易近人和欢乐的方式展示候选人的力量,尽管有必要在棘手的问题上表明立场。
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引用次数: 0
Response Latencies as Evidence of Social Desirability Bias in Voter Turnout Overreports 反应延迟作为选民投票率高估中社会期望偏差的证据
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-16 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231184436
Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina
Most vote validation studies assume that socially desirable responding is the cause of turnout overreports. Still, very little has been done to test this assertion. Using response latency measures from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study and its vote validation data, I examine the relationship between overreporting turnout and response latencies. Emulating research on the effect of deception on response latencies I test whether turnout overreports have a similar effect to that of deception on the response latencies for self-reported turnout. I find that the respondents who overreport turnout have higher mean response times than validated voters on average, and address the role memory in predicting the length of response latencies for the turnout self-reports. This study sheds light on the cognitive mechanism that underlies the occurrence of overreports in survey research, and provides new evidence to support the view that overreports of voter turnout occur due to socially desirable responding.
大多数投票验证研究都假设,社会期望的反应是投票率高估的原因。然而,几乎没有人做过什么来验证这一论断。利用2020年合作选举研究及其投票验证数据的响应延迟度量,我研究了虚报投票率与响应延迟之间的关系。在模拟欺骗对反应潜伏期影响的研究中,我检验了谎报投票率是否与欺骗对自报投票率的反应潜伏期有相似的影响。我发现,谎报投票率的受访者平均反应时间高于有效选民的平均反应时间,并且在预测投票率自我报告的反应延迟长度方面解决了角色记忆。本研究揭示了调查研究中多报现象发生的认知机制,并为选民多报是由于社会期望反应而发生的观点提供了新的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Does the U.S. Congress Respond to Public Opinion on Trade? 美国国会回应公众对贸易的意见吗?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231174854
Boram Lee, Michael Pomirchy, Bryan Schonfeld
Are U.S. legislators responsive to public opinion on trade? Despite the prevalence of preference-based approaches to international trade, not much work has directly assessed the relationship between constituency opinion and positioning by members of Congress on trade bills. We assess dynamic responsiveness (whether shifting constituency opinion on trade yields corresponding changes among legislators) by exploiting an original dataset on the positions of members of Congress on the North American Free Trade Agreement at various points leading up to the November 1993 roll-call vote. We find no evidence of dynamic re-sponsiveness to shifting constituency opinion on even a highly salient piece of trade legislation. We provide qualitative evidence that interest group influence may instead be the predominant source of shifting legislator positioning on trade.
美国立法者对公众在贸易问题上的意见有反应吗?尽管国际贸易普遍采用基于偏好的方法,但直接评估选民意见与国会议员在贸易法案上的立场之间关系的工作并不多。我们通过利用国会议员在1993年11月唱名投票前的不同时间点对北美自由贸易协定的立场的原始数据集,评估动态响应性(选民对贸易的看法变化是否会导致立法者之间的相应变化)。我们没有发现任何证据表明,即使是在一项非常突出的贸易立法上,选民意见的变化也会产生动态反应。我们提供的定性证据表明,利益集团的影响可能反而是立法者在贸易问题上立场转变的主要来源。
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引用次数: 0
Campaigning Through Cable: Examining the Relationship Between Cable News Appearances and House Candidate Fundraising 通过有线电视竞选:检查有线电视新闻露面与众议院候选人筹款之间的关系
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231175675
Seth Benson, Scott Limbocker
Appearances of elected officials on cable news have become a regular feature of American politics. Do candidates going on cable news see a subsequent bump in fundraising? We evaluate all television appearances for every major party candidate running for the House from 2009–2020 on CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News. We match these with FEC records of every individual campaign contribution made during the same period. We find evidence that candidates who appear on cable news do see a spike in fundraising on the day of the appearance. We find incumbents raise more money from in-state donors while nonincumbents see a bump from out-of-state donors. Also, this money comes more from appearances in primetime slots, not daytime appearances. Given that candidates see a bump in fundraising for TV appearances, it remains likely that this facet of American politics will persist.
民选官员在有线电视新闻上的露面已成为美国政治的一大特色。上有线电视新闻的候选人是否看到了随后筹款的激增?我们评估了2009-2010年每一位竞选众议院的主要政党候选人在美国有线电视新闻网、微软全国广播公司和福克斯新闻上的所有电视露面情况。我们将这些与FEC在同一时期做出的每一项个人竞选贡献的记录相匹配。我们发现有证据表明,出现在有线电视新闻上的候选人在出现当天确实看到了筹款的激增。我们发现在职者从州内捐助者那里筹集了更多的资金,而非在职者则从州外捐助者那里获得了资金。此外,这笔钱更多地来自黄金时段的露面,而不是白天的露面。鉴于候选人在电视上露面的筹款活动有所增加,美国政治的这一方面仍有可能持续下去。
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引用次数: 2
Did Black Lives Matter Protests Change Public Opinion? 黑人的生命攸关抗议改变了公众舆论吗?
IF 1.5 3区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-05-22 DOI: 10.1177/1532673X231175625
F. Boehmke, Samuel M. Avery, Marissa S. Good, Thomas C. Dainty, Hyein Ko
Protest events affect public opinion on the issue of interest. However, the extent to which an individual’s proximity to protests impacts public opinion is less examined. Does a protest event occurring nearby, i.e., within an individual’s neighborhood, impact their opinion? Do protests that happen further away, perhaps in the next county, have the same impact on public opinion? This study analyzes the impact of exposure to protests by focusing on the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement in 2020 using public opinion data from Iowa merged with protest locations in Iowa. Specifically, we examine public support for BLM and for defunding the police. We evaluate the role of distance through a discrete mileage cut-off and a distance decay function. Our analysis shows that people living closer to protests show greater support for the BLM movement in general and, to a less extent, for defunding the police. The results suggest that protests may affect public opinion, but only within a very narrow range of a few miles.
抗议事件影响公众对利益问题的看法。然而,个人对抗议活动的接近程度对公众舆论的影响却很少得到审查。发生在附近的抗议事件,例如,在一个人的社区内,会影响他们的意见吗?发生在更远地方的抗议活动,也许是在邻近的县,对公众舆论有同样的影响吗?本研究利用爱荷华州的民意数据和爱荷华州的抗议地点,重点关注2020年的“黑人的命也是命”(BLM)运动,分析了接触抗议活动的影响。具体来说,我们考察了公众对土地管理处和撤资警察的支持。我们通过离散的里程截止和距离衰减函数来评估距离的作用。我们的分析表明,居住在离抗议活动更近的地方的人总体上更支持土地管理处的运动,而在较小程度上支持取消对警察的资助。结果表明,抗议活动可能会影响公众舆论,但只是在几英里的狭窄范围内。
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引用次数: 0
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American Politics Research
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