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International order transition and the UK’s tilt to the ‘Indo-Pacific’ 国际秩序转型与英国向“印太”倾斜
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-06 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160796
S. Breslin, P. Burnham
Abstract This article analyzes the UK government’s response to international order transition as seen through its recent foreign policy ‘tilt’ toward the ‘Indo-Pacific’. It suggests that in post-Brexit Britain the determinants of foreign policy are increasingly complex involving an attempt to balance domestic policy, manage internal party conflict and establish an “independent” position in international relations in the context of US attempts to build a “grand alliance” against China. Our central argument is that the UK policy shift toward the Indo-Pacific is informed in large part by a changing dominant narrative on China and in particular by perceptions of China as “systemic competitor” in the global political economy. We argue that not only is the “tilt” at this point in time based on rather questionable assumptions regarding the UK’s relationship with the ‘region’ but that ‘international order transition’ is more complex than is suggested by the new UK policy orientation. Limited in terms of conventional military power, the UK tilt strategy focuses on effecting institutional and normative change and positions the UK as a ‘soft power superpower’ alongside the United States in the region. In the context of renewed international political and economic crisis the “tilt” expresses the contradictions that lie at the heart of UK foreign policy rather than offering a clearly defined and viable new orientation for “global Britain.”
摘要本文从英国最近的外交政策向“印太”倾斜的角度分析了英国政府对国际秩序转型的反应。这表明,在脱欧后的英国,外交政策的决定因素越来越复杂,包括在美国试图建立针对中国的“大联盟”的背景下,试图平衡国内政策、管理党内冲突和在国际关系中建立“独立”地位。我们的核心论点是,英国向印太政策的转变在很大程度上是由于对中国的主导叙事发生了变化,尤其是将中国视为全球政治经济中的“系统性竞争对手”。我们认为,此时此刻的“倾斜”不仅是基于对英国与“地区”关系的相当可疑的假设,而且“国际秩序过渡”比英国新的政策取向所暗示的更为复杂。就常规军事力量而言,英国的倾斜战略侧重于实现制度和规范变革,并将英国定位为该地区与美国并列的“软实力超级大国”。在新一轮国际政治和经济危机的背景下,“倾斜”表达了英国外交政策的核心矛盾,而不是为“全球英国”提供一个明确而可行的新方向
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引用次数: 3
Japan in the Indo-Pacific: domestic politics and foreign policy 日本在印太:国内政治与外交政策
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-03 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160795
H. Katsumata, Daiki Shibuichi
Abstract Although Japan is commonly regarded as a strong proponent of the existing liberal international order championed by the US in the Indo-Pacific, sometimes it has been half-hearted in opposing a Sino-centric order and been rather supportive of Chinese diplomacy. In particular, it has to some degree supported the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) implemented by Beijing, effectively offered its endorsement to the international legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) without problematizing human rights issues, and severely restricted the enhancement of its own defense capabilities. These policies have been shaped by pro-China individuals and groups who hold privileged positions inside the government, and their privileged positions have been determined by haphazard domestic political factors which have little to do with Sino-Japanese relations. This means that, although on the surface Japan may seem to have rationally calculated its international strategic interests and implemented hedging as a coherent strategy amid Sino-US rivalries, its implementation of what seems to be a hedging strategy has actually been incidental. Its policy has turned out to resemble what has been regarded by International Relations (IR) theorists as a hedging strategy, due to haphazard domestic political factors.
摘要尽管日本通常被认为是美国在印太地区倡导的现有自由主义国际秩序的坚定支持者,但有时它对反对以中国为中心的秩序三心二意,并相当支持中国外交。特别是,它在一定程度上支持北京实施的“一带一路”倡议,在不解决人权问题的情况下有效地支持了中国共产党的国际合法性,并严重限制了自身防御能力的提高。这些政策是由在政府内部占据特权地位的亲中个人和团体制定的,他们的特权地位是由与中日关系无关的偶然的国内政治因素决定的。这意味着,尽管从表面上看,日本似乎合理地计算了其国际战略利益,并在中美对抗中实施了对冲作为一种连贯的战略,但其实施看似对冲的战略实际上是偶然的。由于偶然的国内政治因素,其政策已被证明类似于国际关系理论家所认为的对冲策略。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Myanmar’s trade dependence on China during the reform period of the 2010s: a sectoral value chain approach 2010年代改革期间缅甸对中国的贸易依赖评估:一个部门价值链方法
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-28 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160797
Y. Oh
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引用次数: 1
Navigating international order transition in the Indo Pacific 引导印太地区的国际秩序转型
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160798
Kai He, Huiyun Feng
Abstract The world is in crisis. The Covid pandemic and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war signify a potential order transition in the international system. The Indo Pacific is at the center of gravity of great power competition between the US and China. How have policy elites in the region perceived the potential order transition against the background of US-China strategic competition? How have states, including both great and secondary powers, chosen different strategies to cope with security and economic turbulence in the Indo Pacific? This special issue intends to shed some light on these questions by critically examining the diverse perceptions and policy choices of the United States, China, South Korea, India, Japan, Indonesia, and the UK during the period of potential order transition in the Indo Pacific. It provides an academic platform for scholars to engage in this ‘order transition’ topic from different theoretical perspectives as well as from respective national angles in the Indo Pacific. It suggests that the complexity of the international order itself has made the ‘order transition’ more complicated and difficult than before. It is the best of times, it is the worst of times, and it is the most challenging time for state leaders and scholars alike.
世界正处于危机之中。新冠肺炎疫情和正在进行的俄乌战争意味着国际体系的潜在秩序转型。印太地区处于美中大国竞争的重心。在美中战略竞争的背景下,该地区的政策精英如何看待潜在的秩序转型?包括大国和次大国在内的各国是如何选择不同的战略来应对印太地区的安全和经济动荡的?本期特刊旨在通过批判性地审视美国、中国、韩国、印度、日本、印度尼西亚和英国在印太地区潜在秩序过渡时期的不同看法和政策选择,来阐明这些问题。它为学者们提供了一个学术平台,让他们从不同的理论角度以及从印度洋-太平洋各自的国家角度来参与这一“秩序转型”主题。这表明,国际秩序本身的复杂性使“秩序转型”比以前更加复杂和困难。这是最好的时代,也是最糟糕的时代,对国家领导人和学者来说也是最具挑战性的时代。
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引用次数: 2
US perspectives on the power shift in the Indo-Pacific 美国对印太地区权力转移的看法
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160793
Zack Cooper, Emily Young Carr
Abstract This essay examines four schools of thought about US strategy in Asia, particularly regarding China. These four viewpoints—here termed the responsible stakeholder, communist collapse, constructive cooperation, and managed competition schools—are determined largely by the answers to two questions. First, to what degree should US policies focus on integrating China into the international order, versus mitigating the consequences of China’s rise? Second, should US policy makers seek a specified end state with China, or simply focus on achieving a stable steady state? Based on a detailed analysis of existing commentary, we assert that most debates about US objectives vis-à-vis China revolve around these questions. This essay concludes that US policies are likely to incorporate aspects of all four theories, which will make it difficult—if not impossible—for the United States to adopt any clear and sustained strategy across administrations. Barring a major breakthrough or breakdown in US–China relations, Washington is destined for a muddled debate on China that will make it difficult to achieve strategic consensus. And this strategic confusion on China will have substantial implications for US regional strategy more broadly.
摘要本文考察了美国对亚洲战略,特别是对中国战略的四个学派。这四种观点——这里称之为负责任的利益相关者、共产主义崩溃、建设性合作和有管理的竞争学校——在很大程度上取决于两个问题的答案。首先,美国的政策应该在多大程度上侧重于将中国融入国际秩序,而不是减轻中国崛起的后果?第二,美国决策者应该寻求与中国的特定最终状态,还是仅仅专注于实现稳定稳定的状态?基于对现有评论的详细分析,我们断言,关于美国对中国目标的大多数辩论都围绕着这些问题展开。这篇文章的结论是,美国的政策可能包含了所有四种理论的各个方面,这将使美国很难——如果不是不可能的话——在各个政府之间采取任何明确和持续的战略。除非美中关系出现重大突破或破裂,否则华盛顿注定会就中国问题展开混乱的辩论,难以达成战略共识。这种对中国的战略困惑将对美国更广泛的地区战略产生重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Balance of power, balance of alignment, and China’s role in the regional order transition 力量平衡、结盟平衡以及中国在地区秩序转型中的作用
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160791
Feng Liu
Abstract The Indo-Pacific region has become a central focus of great power competition. Not surprisingly, a rising China seeks to play an important, if not a leading role in the transformation of Asia’s present regional order. The United States, meanwhile, as the unipole, has strong incentives to prevent the rise of a peer competitor. Facing certain structural and domestic constraints, China is disinclined to resort to the strategy of violent revision or subversion historically pursued by previous rising powers. Instead, China has pursued a gradual change of the existing regional order through a combination of internal balancing and external reassurance strategies. Specifically, China’s quest for great power status in the region, particularly in response to the Indo-Pacific strategy adopted by the United States since the Trump administration, has prompted its proactive shift to counterbalance the US’ vision of order in the region. This paper argues that the balance of power and the balance of alignment constitute two key variables that affect the prospect of Sino-US competition for a preferable regional order. Beijing’s balancing strategies have significantly enhanced its economic and military capabilities, reducing the gap with the United States on the one hand and attracted certain regional states to join China-led regional initiatives on the other. However, owing to the complex balancing dynamics in the region and the agency of small and middle powers, the balance of alignment supports neither American nor Chinese dominance of Asia. Contrary to the ‘new Cold War’ narrative, the contest for order does not entail dividing the region into two rival blocs, but rather creating certain overlapping groupings and coalitions led by the two great powers. It consequently also signifies that the current order transition under a new bipolarity will be prolonged and relatively stable compared to the Cold War bipolarity.
摘要印太地区已成为大国竞争的焦点。毫不奇怪,崛起中的中国寻求在亚洲当前地区秩序的转变中发挥重要作用,如果不是领导作用的话。与此同时,美国作为单极,有强大的动机来阻止同行竞争对手的崛起。面对某些结构性和国内制约因素,中国不愿采取以往崛起大国历史上推行的暴力修正或颠覆战略。相反,中国通过内部平衡和外部安抚战略相结合,逐步改变现有的地区秩序。具体而言,中国对该地区大国地位的追求,特别是对美国自特朗普政府以来采取的印太战略的回应,促使其积极转变,以制衡美国对该地区秩序的愿景。本文认为,力量平衡和结盟平衡是影响中美竞争更有利地区秩序前景的两个关键变量。北京的平衡战略显著增强了其经济和军事能力,一方面缩小了与美国的差距,另一方面吸引了一些地区国家加入中国领导的地区倡议。然而,由于该地区复杂的平衡动态和中小型大国的作用,结盟的平衡既不支持美国也不支持中国在亚洲的主导地位。与“新冷战”的说法相反,秩序的争夺并不意味着将该地区划分为两个对立的集团,而是建立由两个大国领导的某些重叠的集团和联盟。因此,这也意味着,与冷战时期的两极相比,新的两极下的当前秩序转变将延长并相对稳定。
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引用次数: 3
Indonesia’s hedging plus policy in the face of China’s rise and the US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific region 面对中国崛起和美中在印太地区的竞争,印尼的对冲+政策
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-26 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160794
Dewi Fortuna Anwar
Abstract Indonesia regards the shift in the center of economic gravity to Asia, marked by the rise of China and India following the earlier Asian tigers, as a welcome phenomenon that can benefit its own economic development. However, while celebrating the economic dynamism of the Indo-Pacific region, Indonesia also views with great concern China’s assertiveness in pursuing its claims over the whole of the South China Sea, as well as the re-emergence of major power rivalry, particularly between the United States and China as the incumbent and ascending superpower respectively, which can disrupt regional stability and prosperity. With its ‘free and active’ foreign policy doctrine Indonesia adheres to non-alignment, and as a matter of principle does not take sides in any great power competition. Indonesia’s policy in managing regional uncertainty which offers both opportunities for cooperation and threats of conflicts can best be described as hedging plus to ensure both its strategic autonomy and agency. It entails engaging all sides to maximize benefits while mitigating risks at both the national level and through ASEAN. At the same time, as the world’s largest archipelagic state straddling the Indian and the Pacific oceans, and the largest member of ASEAN, Indonesia carries out middle-power diplomacy by playing a leading role in promoting ASEAN-centric inclusive and cooperative wider East Asian multilateralism, helping to shape both the institutional and normative pillars of the International Order in the Indo-Pacific.
摘要印度尼西亚认为,经济重心向亚洲转移是一种受欢迎的现象,其特点是中国和印度在早期的亚洲虎之后崛起,这有利于其自身的经济发展。然而,在庆祝印太地区经济活力的同时,印度尼西亚也非常关注中国在追求对整个南中国海主权主张方面的自信,以及大国竞争的重新出现,特别是美国和中国分别作为现任和崛起的超级大国之间的竞争,这可能破坏地区稳定与繁荣。凭借其“自由和积极”的外交政策原则,印度尼西亚坚持不结盟,原则上在任何大国竞争中都不偏袒任何一方。印度尼西亚在管理区域不确定性方面的政策既提供了合作的机会,也提供了冲突的威胁,最好将其描述为对冲加,以确保其战略自主权和代理权。它需要各方参与,在国家层面和通过东盟减轻风险的同时,实现利益最大化。与此同时,作为世界上最大的横跨印度洋和太平洋的群岛国家和东盟最大成员国,印度尼西亚通过在促进以东盟为中心的包容性和合作性更广泛的东亚多边主义方面发挥主导作用,开展中大国外交,有助于塑造印太地区国际秩序的制度和规范支柱。
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引用次数: 6
International order transition and US-China strategic competition in the indo pacific 国际秩序转型与中美在印太地区的战略竞争
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-23 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160789
Kai He, Huiyun Feng
Abstract The world is changing, and the liberal international order (LIO) is at stake. Scholars and pundits hold different views on whether and how an order transition will take place. We argue that the divergent arguments around LIO are rooted in contested conceptualizations of what an international order is as well as the untheorized measure of what counts as a ‘transition’ of international order. We propose a synthesized and deductive approach to defining international order with three pillars: power, institutions, and norms. We argue that a significant order transition will take place when at least two pillars of the order are fundamentally challenged and eventually changed. Applying this deductive, three-pillar conceptual framework of international order, we preliminarily examine how US-China competition has impacted the current LIO in the Indo Pacific. We conclude that the multi-pillar feature of the international order technically strengthens the sustainability and resilience of the current LIO. Even though China’s rise might change the power distribution in the system—the power pillar of the order, the mere power shift between China and the United States will not lead to a significant order transition if the other two pillars of the order remain intact.
世界在变化,自由主义国际秩序(LIO)岌岌可危。学者和权威人士对秩序过渡是否会发生以及如何发生持不同看法。我们认为,围绕LIO的分歧论点源于对什么是国际秩序的有争议的概念化,以及对什么是国际秩序“过渡”的非理论化衡量。我们提出了一种综合和演绎的方法来定义国际秩序的三大支柱:权力、制度和规范。我们认为,当秩序的至少两个支柱从根本上受到挑战并最终发生变化时,将发生重大的秩序过渡。运用这一演绎的、三支柱的国际秩序概念框架,我们初步考察了中美竞争是如何影响印太地区当前的国际秩序的。我们得出结论,国际秩序的多支柱特征在技术上加强了当前国际秩序的可持续性和弹性。尽管中国的崛起可能会改变体系中的权力分配——秩序的权力支柱,但如果秩序的其他两个支柱保持不变,中美之间的单纯权力转移不会导致重大的秩序转变。
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引用次数: 5
The US-led security network in the Indo-Pacific in international order transition: a South Korean perspective 国际秩序转型中美国主导的印太安全网络:韩国视角
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2160790
Jae Jeok Park
Abstract The liberal security order in the Indo-Pacific led by the US has been transitioning to one managed by a US-led security network. As a result, the geostrategic competition between the US and China has also been transforming to one between this US-led network and China. In the process, Japan, Australia, and India have emerged as major ‘nodes’ of the network. In this context, this paper adopts the concept of ‘network power’ to claim that South Korea—while it still favors being a part of the network—is concerned that it would be relegated to the status of a small peripheral node mainly ‘tied’ to Japan, the regional hub of the network in Northeast Asia. To mitigate this concern, South Korea attempts to avoid unnecessarily seeming to exclude China while still favoring the network; aligns with other regional nodes in the network, whether Australia, India, or some ASEAN states; and increasingly frames its role as that of an active ‘order-shaper’ rather than a passive ‘order-taker’.
摘要美国领导的印太自由安全秩序正在向美国领导的安全网络管理的秩序过渡。因此,美中之间的地缘战略竞争也在转变为美国领导的网络与中国之间的竞争。在此过程中,日本、澳大利亚和印度已成为该网络的主要“节点”。在这种背景下,本文采用了“网络大国”的概念,声称韩国虽然仍然支持成为网络的一部分,但担心它会被降级为主要与东北亚网络的区域枢纽日本“捆绑”在一起的小型外围节点。为了缓解这种担忧,韩国试图避免不必要地将中国排除在外,同时仍然支持该网络;与网络中的其他区域节点保持一致,无论是澳大利亚、印度还是一些东盟国家;并越来越多地将其角色界定为主动的“订单塑造者”,而不是被动的“订单接受者”。
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引用次数: 3
Tilting the playing field: government strategies to bolster control over policy paths in Japan and South Korea 倾斜竞争环境:政府加强对日本和韩国政策路径控制的战略
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2151641
Max Nagel
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引用次数: 0
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Pacific Review
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