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China’s rise, institutional balancing, and (possible) peaceful order transition in the Asia pacific 中国的崛起,制度平衡,以及亚太地区(可能的)和平秩序转型
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-05-13 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2075439
Kai He
Abstract Challenging a popular view that China’s rise will lead the United States and China to fall into the ‘Thucydides trap’—a possible hegemonic war between the two—this paper proposes an ‘institutional peace’ argument, suggesting that the ongoing international order transition will be different from previous order transitions in history. Instead of using military means to change the international order, China and the United States have relied on various institutional balancing strategies to compete with one another for an advantageous position in the future international order. The discussion on the institutional competition between China and the US around the AIIB and the ARF-related multilateral security architecture supports the ‘institutional peace’ argument: institutional competition in the form of institutional balancing strengthens the dynamics and utility of international institutions, encourages states to offer new public goods, and could lead to a more peaceful order transition in the international system. However, this institutional peace argument is constrained by two caveats: the continued validity of the MAD nuclear deterrence and a limited degree of ideological antagonism between the US and China.
摘要本文挑战了一种流行的观点,即中国的崛起将导致美国和中国陷入“修昔底德陷阱”——两国之间可能的霸权战争——提出了一种“制度和平”的论点,表明当前的国际秩序转型将不同于历史上以往的秩序转型。中美没有利用军事手段改变国际秩序,而是依靠各种制度平衡战略,在未来的国际秩序中相互竞争优势地位。关于中美围绕亚投行和东盟地区论坛相关多边安全架构的制度竞争的讨论支持了“制度和平”的论点:以制度平衡形式的制度竞争加强了国际机构的动力和效用,鼓励各国提供新的公共产品,并可能导致国际体系中更加和平的秩序过渡。然而,这种制度性的和平论点受到两个警告的约束:MAD核威慑的持续有效性和美中之间有限程度的意识形态对抗。
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引用次数: 3
Special issue on the ‘sources of peace and peaceful change in East Asia’1 “东亚和平与和平变革的根源”特刊
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-05-12 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2075442
Bhubhinda Singh
Abstract East Asia is usually associated with war and conflict. This applies to its historical past, as well as to the present post-Cold War period. In fact, this pessimism on the region has hardened with the worsening structural US-China competition since 2010. Challenging this prevailing view, this special issue argues that the concepts of peace and peaceful change are critical elements to explain East Asian regional dynamics in the post-Cold War period. It poses the following questions: (a) how could peace and peaceful change be analysed conceptually at the regional level?; (b) what type of peace and peaceful change notions are applicable to East Asia?; (c) what are the sources and mechanisms of regional peace in East Asia and its sub-regions and how have the sources and mechanisms changed over the post-Cold War period?; (d) how has the worsening US-China structural competition affected the prospects of peace in East Asia?; and (e) how do the middle powers, namely Japan, South Korea, Australia and Indonesia, contribute to peace and peaceful change in the region? The special issue is the first attempt to systematically apply the concepts of peace and peaceful change on East Asia. The articles identify the sources and mechanisms of peace and peaceful change, apply an eclectic conceptual approach that combines traditional and non-traditional IR theories; and assess the prospects of peace in East Asia in the context of the worsening structural tensions presented by the US-China competition.
东亚通常与战争和冲突联系在一起。这既适用于它的历史过去,也适用于目前的后冷战时期。事实上,这种对该地区的悲观情绪随着2010年以来美中结构性竞争的恶化而加剧。本期特刊挑战了这一普遍观点,认为和平与和平变革的概念是解释冷战后东亚地区动态的关键因素。它提出了下列问题:(a)如何在区域一级从概念上分析和平与和平变革?(b)什么样的和平与和平变革观念适用于东亚?(三)东亚及其次区域地区和平的来源和机制是什么?在后冷战时期,这些来源和机制发生了怎样的变化?(d)日益恶化的美中结构性竞争如何影响东亚和平的前景?(e)日本、韩国、澳大利亚和印度尼西亚等中等强国如何为该地区的和平与和平变革做出贡献?该特刊首次尝试系统地将和平与和平变革的概念应用于东亚。文章确定了和平与和平变革的来源和机制,采用了结合传统和非传统国际关系理论的折衷概念方法;并在中美竞争带来的结构性紧张局势恶化的背景下,评估东亚和平的前景。
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引用次数: 0
Sources of peace in East Asia: interdependence, institutions, and middle powers 东亚和平之源:相互依存、制度和中等强国
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-05-11 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2075445
T. J. Pempel
Abstract For forty years, the East Asian regional order has delivered widespread peace and prosperity. That order faces possible upending by an economically and militarily more powerful China and a decreasingly robust and engaged United States. While accepting the possibility that such structural shifts could upend the regional order, this paper contends that three powerful counterweights are working to counter disruptive conflicts and to foster peaceful change, namely strong and rising economic interdependence, expanding institutionalization, and active preservation efforts by number of other Asian states, particularly the region’s middle powers. This article analyzes the contribution of these three forces to creating the existing order and to their roles in its continuation.
摘要四十年来,东亚地区秩序带来了广泛的和平与繁荣。这一秩序可能会被经济和军事上更加强大的中国和日益强大和参与的美国颠覆。在接受这种结构转变可能颠覆地区秩序的可能性的同时,本文认为,三个强大的制衡力量正在努力对抗破坏性冲突并促进和平变革,即强大且不断增强的经济相互依存性、不断扩大的制度化和其他一些亚洲国家的积极维护努力,尤其是该地区的中间大国。本文分析了这三种力量对创建现有秩序的贡献,以及它们在秩序延续中的作用。
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引用次数: 2
Charting the evolution of the ASEAN’s consensus on human rights, 2007–2021 回顾2007-2021年东盟人权共识的演变
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-05-03 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2070655
A. Feraru
Abstract This article provides a comprehensive understanding of the roles and functions of ASEAN’s human rights regime by building on widely documented, consistent findings relating to the purpose of the association and the nature of its human rights institutions. In particular, the paper starts by emphasizing that, despite continuing debate over the nature and achievements/failures of the regional grouping, scholarship tends to converge on the two important aspects: ASEAN’s normative framework and its long-standing practice of ‘quiet diplomacy’ are designed to reassure incumbent governments weary of unwanted interference in internal affairs; and regional human rights institutions are primarily ASEAN bodies. These findings are formulated as assumptions guiding the analysis of the association’s human rights rhetoric and practice, which centers on the evolution of intergovernmental consensus, the role of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR) in advancing this consensus, and an assessment of ASEAN responses to gross violations perpetrated or supported by governing elites. This latter examination details regional responses to the 2014 military coup in Thailand, Philippines’ brutal and largely extrajudicial ‘war on drugs’, the Rohingya genocide, and the 2021 military coup in Myanmar and ensuing violence.
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引用次数: 0
China’s contestation of the liberal international order 中国对自由国际秩序的主张
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-04-09 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2063367
Sung-han Kim, Sanghoon Kim
Abstract The concept of ‘revisionism’ has caught the attention of international relations scholars amid intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. It is a trademark of rising powers, and China was likewise expected to become a revisionist power, intent on changing the status quo. However, history tells us that not all rising powers necessarily become revolutionary states, seeking to overturn the prevailing order and replace it with another through hegemonic wars. This paper presents a novel understanding of revisionism by distinguishing between strategic ‘contestation’ and ‘challenge’. In the context of declining unipolarity, a dissatisfied rising power will contest the rules and principles of issue-specific regimes and demand legitimate adjustments that better reflect the new distribution of power. A challenge emerges when demands are rejected, and a contestation leads to ‘deconcentration’ and ‘delegitimation’ of the established order. The establishment of the AIIB can be examined as an example of contested multilateralism that falls short of a challenge. This paper concludes that China is ‘contesting’, not ‘challenging’ the liberal international order and suggests a set of countermeasures that the U.S. can think of: selective accommodation, reinforcement of alliances and partnerships, and overcoming domestic challenges such as populism that undermine the liberal values, constitutive of the liberal international order.
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引用次数: 4
China-Russia technology cooperation in space: Mutually needed or mutually exclusive? 中俄航天技术合作:相互需要还是相互排斥?
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-03-17 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2052744
Qisong He
Abstract As far as space technology cooperation is concerned, China and Russia took the Ukraine crisis in 2014 as the dividing line. The content and methods of cooperation between the two countries have undergone significant changes, making the cooperation from simple to complicated. Meanwhile, the space technology cooperation between China and Russia will definitely shape the structure of power in space geopolitics among China and Russia and US, which helps to create a balance of power and prevent the emergence of a Kindleberger trap in space geopolitics, but to a certain extent, will in turn restrict China-Russia space technology cooperation and have an important impact on China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination. The deepening of space technology cooperation between China and Russia may increasingly show the nature of power competition in space geopolitics.
摘要就空间技术合作而言,中俄两国以2014年乌克兰危机为分界线。两国合作的内容和方式发生了重大变化,合作由简单变为复杂。同时,中俄之间的空间技术合作必将塑造中俄和美国在太空地缘政治中的权力结构,这有助于创造力量平衡,防止太空地缘政治出现Kindleberger陷阱,但在一定程度上,将反过来制约中俄空间技术合作,对中俄战略协作伙伴关系产生重要影响。中俄航天技术合作的深化可能越来越显示出太空地缘政治中的实力竞争性质。
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引用次数: 1
Indo-Pacific Powers: Internalization, Interpretation, and Implementation of International Law 印太大国:国际法的国际化、解释与实施
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-03-03 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2046629
Jiyeol Kim, Arpit Raswant
Abstract This article examines how the Indo-Pacific powers, China and India, respond to international law and evaluates how effectively international law influences each state’s behavior. The role of norms and international legal regimes in the major Indo-Pacific flashpoints has become an inseparable justification of contestants’ claims over the years. We suggest that a state actor’s response to international law can be assessed using three criteria: the internalization, interpretation, and implementation of international law. The article investigates China and India as state actors and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as a case of international law. We assess these criteria by comparing the development of domestic laws by China and India in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (internalization), their declarations submitted to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea provisions (interpretation), and their reaction to third-party arbitrations (implementation). By connecting the domestic and international legal actions of rising powers in the Indo-Pacific region, the article suggests that a state actor’s internalization, interpretation, and implementation of international law significantly indicate how international law impacts an individual state’s behavior in the international security arena. Thus, this article establishes critical connections between emerging security order, regional politics, and normative developments in the Indo-Pacific.
本文考察了印太大国中国和印度如何回应国际法,并评估了国际法如何有效地影响每个国家的行为。多年来,规范和国际法律制度在印度-太平洋主要热点地区的作用,已成为各方主张的不可分割的理由。我们建议,一个国家行为体对国际法的反应可以用三个标准来评估:国际法的内化、解释和实施。本文将中国和印度作为国家行为体进行调查,并将《联合国海洋法公约》作为国际法案例进行调查。我们通过比较中国和印度根据《联合国海洋法公约》制定的国内法(内部化)、两国向《联合国海洋法公约》提交的声明(解释)以及两国对第三方仲裁的反应(执行)来评估这些标准。通过将印度-太平洋地区新兴大国的国内和国际法律行为联系起来,本文认为,一个国家行为体对国际法的内化、解释和实施,显著地表明国际法如何影响一个国家在国际安全领域的行为。因此,本文建立了新兴安全秩序、区域政治和印度-太平洋地区规范发展之间的关键联系。
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引用次数: 2
The shift to consensus democracy and limits of institutional design in Asia 向共识民主的转变与亚洲制度设计的局限性
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-02-10 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2035426
Yuko Kasuya, B. Reilly
Abstract A ‘majoritarian turn’ identified by scholars of Asian democracy in the 1990s saw the rise of mixed-member majoritarian electoral systems and more centripetal party competition across both Northeast and Southeast Asia. In this paper, we argue that since the 2000s, the institutional pendulum has shifted, with more consensual approaches to democracy appearing to better represent key identity cleavages of gender, ethnicity, and territory—a trend evident not just in East Asia but South Asia as well. This new ‘Asian model’ typically involves increasing the proportional components of existing electoral formulas and grafting gender quotas, multiethnic party lists, and quasi-federal elements onto ostensibly majoritarian state structures. We show that these reforms have, as intended, mostly increased female and ethnic minority representation and decentralized governance structures. At the same time, however, these de jure changes are not associated with de facto political development in terms of greater democratic quality, counter to theoretical expectations. Indeed, democracy has declined across most of Asia at the same time as its democratic institutions have become more consensual.
摘要20世纪90年代,亚洲民主学者发现了一种“多数主义转向”,即混合成员多数选举制度的兴起,以及东北亚和东南亚更为向心的政党竞争。在这篇论文中,我们认为,自2000年代以来,制度的钟摆已经发生了变化,对民主的更一致的做法似乎更好地代表了性别、种族和领土的关键身份划分——这一趋势不仅在东亚,在南亚也很明显。这种新的“亚洲模式”通常包括增加现有选举方案的比例组成部分,并将性别配额、多民族政党名单和准联邦元素移植到表面上的多数主义国家结构中。我们表明,正如预期的那样,这些改革主要增加了女性和少数民族的代表性,并分散了治理结构。然而,与此同时,这些法律上的变化与更大的民主质量方面的事实上的政治发展并不相关,这与理论预期相反。事实上,亚洲大部分地区的民主都在衰落,与此同时,其民主制度也变得更加一致。
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引用次数: 1
Arm, to disarm: North Korea’s Cold War anti-nuclearism 武装,解除武装:朝鲜冷战时期的反核主义
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-02-04 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2034918
Soon-ok Shin
Abstract North Korea is a de facto nuclear weapon state, having undertaken six tests between 2006 and 2017. Throughout a series of nuclear crises, since the early 1990s, Pyongyang has not only emphasised its sovereign right to explore nuclear options as an inevitable response to a hostile United States, but has at the same time consistently embraced an anti-nuclear stance, maintaining a commitment to the ‘denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula’. This nuclear posture – ‘arm, to disarm’ – stressing the inevitability of nuclear-arming while at the same time pledging a normative anti-nuclear commitment to denuclearisation, contains seemingly irreconcilable elements. This challenges rationalist IR theories, which are unable adequately to explain the DPRK’s position, characterising it as either a tactical diversion to disguise realist motivations or a negotiation leverage to induce economic and strategic concessions. This article offers an alternative analysis, seeking to decode the DPRK’s seemingly contradictory nuclear posture by arguing that its anti-nuclear posture has deep Cold War roots aimed at hedging its security inferiority vis-à-vis nuclear-armed enemies. It focuses on the Cold War security nexus in East Asia and examines how Pyongyang’s engagement in the anti-nuclear movement evolved to shape its seemingly irreconcilable ‘arm, to disarm’ nuclearism.
摘要朝鲜是一个事实上的核武器国家,在2006年至2017年间进行了六次核试验。自20世纪90年代初以来,在一系列核危机中,平壤不仅强调其探索核选择的主权权利,这是对敌对美国的必然回应,而且同时一贯奉行反核立场,坚持“朝鲜半岛无核化”的承诺。这种核态势——“武装,解除武装”——强调核武装的必然性,同时承诺对无核化作出规范的反核承诺,其中似乎包含了不可调和的因素。这挑战了理性主义的IR理论,这些理论无法充分解释朝鲜的立场,将其定性为掩盖现实主义动机的战术转移,或诱导经济和战略让步的谈判杠杆。这篇文章提供了另一种分析,试图解读朝鲜看似矛盾的核态势,认为其反核态势有着深刻的冷战根源,旨在对冲其相对于拥有核武器的敌人的安全劣势。它关注的是冷战时期东亚的安全关系,并考察了平壤参与反核运动是如何演变成其看似不可调和的“解除武装”核主义的。
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引用次数: 0
Japan and the new Indo-Pacific order: the rise of an entrepreneurial power 日本与印太新秩序:创业大国的崛起
IF 2.1 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.1080/09512748.2022.2033820
H. Envall, T. Wilkins
Abstract This article revisits the conceptualisation of (regional) order in International Relations (IR) theory to illuminate key aspects of Japan’s order-building role in the Indo-Pacific. The framework is based upon a multi-dimensional understanding of regional order-building allowing for an examination of Japan’s vision for a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) policy ‘vision’, the challenges it faces as a secondary power, and its conduct as an emerging entrepreneurial power in the Indo-Pacific. The article’s central argument is that Japan’s order-building should be understood in the context of the country’s deeper strategic situation and, in particular, its position as a secondary, but still highly influential, power. This has implications for understanding Japan’s approach to international order and how it might deploy norm entrepreneurship in shaping the new Indo-Pacific order.
本文回顾了国际关系(IR)理论中(区域)秩序的概念,以阐明日本在印度-太平洋地区建立秩序的关键方面。该框架基于对区域秩序建设的多维理解,允许审查日本对“自由开放的印度-太平洋”(FOIP)政策“愿景”的愿景,它作为次要大国面临的挑战,以及它作为印度-太平洋新兴创业大国的行为。这篇文章的中心论点是,日本的秩序建设应该放在该国更深层次的战略形势的背景下理解,尤其是它作为一个次要但仍具有高度影响力的大国的地位。这对理解日本对国际秩序的态度,以及它如何在塑造新的印太秩序中运用规范创业精神,具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
Pacific Review
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