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Indirect rule and mass threat: Two paths to direct rule 间接统治与大规模威胁:通往直接统治的两条道路
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-06-23 DOI: 10.1177/09516298231183640
Benjamin Broman
What is the impact of popular discontent on the transition from indirect to direct rule? The current literature suggests contrasting theories, variously arguing that rulers are more likely to govern directly when facing either a particularly high or particularly low probability of mass resistance. I reconcile these views by arguing that the decision to rule indirectly is subject to competing dilemmas. In a formal model, I show that these twin tensions influence the choice to centralize power in opposing manners. Accordingly, there are two distinct political logics driving direct rule: one resulting from a high likelihood of revolt and the other from a low likelihood, with contrasting comparative statics. The model therefore reconciles contrasting views in the literature. I illustrate the model's logic with reference to key cases and provide heuristics for predicting comparative statics in new empirical settings.
民众不满对从间接统治向直接统治过渡的影响是什么?目前的文献提出了对比鲜明的理论,各种各样的观点认为,当统治者面临特别高或特别低的大规模抵抗概率时,他们更有可能直接执政。我调和了这些观点,认为间接统治的决定受制于相互竞争的困境。在一个正式的模型中,我表明,这两种紧张关系会影响以相反的方式集中权力的选择。因此,有两种不同的政治逻辑驱动着直接统治:一种是由叛乱的高可能性产生的,另一种是从低可能性产生的。因此,该模型调和了文献中对比鲜明的观点。我参考关键案例说明了模型的逻辑,并为在新的经验环境中预测比较静态提供了启发。
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引用次数: 0
Access to justice in revenue-seeking legal institutions 在寻求收入的法律机构中诉诸司法
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.1177/09516298231162040
H. Simpson
Legal bias against the poor, and competition from nonstate legal services providers, can both seriously affect state justice provision. But analyses of these factors often fail to incorporate a critical feature of justice systems: states use them for revenue generation. I build a series of formal models to understand how these factors interact. I derive several insights into empirical patterns of bias, competition, access to justice, and legal system viability. First, in poor countries, bias can increase access to justice and legal effectiveness. Second, given competition, poor groups will pay a premium for state-provided justice, while wealthy groups will pay a premium for private dispute resolution. However, losing a poor group to competition is also less costly than losing a wealthy group, and the latter loss can sometimes destroy the viability of the state justice system. These results contribute to our understanding of state capacity and rule of law development.
对穷人的法律偏见和非国家法律服务提供者的竞争都会严重影响国家司法的提供。但对这些因素的分析往往没有纳入司法系统的一个关键特征:各州利用它们来创收。我建立了一系列正式的模型来了解这些因素是如何相互作用的。我对偏见、竞争、诉诸司法和法律制度可行性的经验模式有一些见解。首先,在贫穷国家,偏见会增加诉诸司法的机会和法律效力。其次,考虑到竞争,贫困群体将为国家提供的正义支付溢价,而富裕群体将为私人纠纷解决支付溢价。然而,在竞争中失去一个贫穷群体的成本也比失去一个富裕群体低,而后者的损失有时会破坏国家司法系统的生存能力。这些结果有助于我们理解国家能力和法治发展。
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of noncompliance in customs unions 关税同盟中不服从的政治经济学
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221130262
Joshua C. Fjelstul
States create customs unions to accrue consumer welfare gains. Given the incentives to cheat to protect domestic firms from foreign competition, they create regulatory regimes with international courts to manage noncompliance. I develop a formal model that explains how the politics of compliance in regulatory regimes systematically distorts the welfare gains that states accrue from developing customs unions. The model predicts that regulatory regimes are most effective at enforcing compliance (i.e., at reducing trade barriers) in industries with intermediate levels of firm homogeneity in terms of productivity. In highly homogenous industries, regulatory regimes are not effective because noncompliance is minimal enough that litigation is not cost-effective; in highly heterogenous industries, regulatory regimes are not effective because courts, concerned about noncompliance with their rulings, are unlikely to rule against the defendants, deterring the plaintiffs from bringing cases. The model also predicts the downstream consequences for the performance of individual firms and consumer welfare.
各国建立关税同盟以积累消费者福利收益。考虑到为了保护国内公司免受外国竞争而作弊的动机,他们建立了由国际法院管理违规行为的监管制度。我开发了一个正式模型,解释了监管制度中的合规政治如何系统性地扭曲了各国从发展中关税同盟中获得的福利收益。该模型预测,监管制度在强制遵守(即减少贸易壁垒)方面最有效,在生产率方面具有中等水平的企业同质性。在高度同质化的行业中,监管制度并不有效,因为违规行为极少,诉讼不具有成本效益;在高度异质的行业中,监管制度并不有效,因为法院担心不遵守其裁决,不太可能做出不利于被告的裁决,从而阻止原告提起诉讼。该模型还预测了个别企业绩效和消费者福利的下游后果。
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引用次数: 0
Ideological sorting 意识形态分类
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-18 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221130261
D. Baron
This paper presents a model in which people sort between two districts based on economic and ideological preferences. People are either ideologues who prefer redistribution over a public good or non-ideologues who prefer a public good that benefits everyone equally. Individuals differ in their productivity with the distribution of productivities the same for both ideologues and non-ideologues. Ideologues back their ideology by working harder when there is redistribution even when not recipients, and non-ideologues work harder when the public good is provided. The tax rate in each district is chosen by majority rule with the median voter theorem identifying the winner. In the focal equilibrium, high productivity ideologues and non-ideologues locate together in a low tax district, and low productivity non-ideologues and ideologues locate together in a high tax district to benefit from redistribution. Middle-income individuals separate with non-ideologues locating in the low tax district and ideologues locating in the high tax district. Ideology thus results in a polarization interval in the middle of the income distribution. If ideology leads to partisanship and a strong party government that chooses the tax rate based on the party median, partisanship widens the polarization interval.
本文提出了一个模型,在这个模型中,人们根据经济和意识形态偏好在两个地区之间进行排序。人们要么是倾向于再分配而不是公共利益的空想家,要么是非空想家,他们倾向于每个人都能平等受益的公共利益。个人的生产力是不同的,而意识形态和非意识形态的生产力分配是相同的。即使不是接受者,如果有再分配,理论家也会更加努力地支持自己的意识形态;如果有公共利益,非理论家也会更加努力。每个地区的税率由多数决原则选择,中间选民定理确定获胜者。在焦点均衡中,高生产率的理论家和非理论家共同居住在低税区,而低生产率的非理论家和理论家共同居住在高税区,以从再分配中获益。中等收入人群与居住在低税地区的非意识形态人群和居住在高税地区的意识形态人群分开。因此,意识形态导致了收入分配中间的两极分化区间。如果意识形态导致党派之争,并形成一个根据党派中间值选择税率的强大的政党政府,党派之争就会扩大两极分化的间隔。
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引用次数: 0
Generalized medians and electoral competition with valence 广义中位数与带价的选举竞争
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-11 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221130265
Tasos Kalandrakis
I establish conditions for existence of pure strategy equilibria in K-candidate Downsian electoral competition (K ≥ 2) with valence when the voting rule is monotonic, generalizing existing results to non-proper rules and possibly continuous electorates. The conditions are sufficient when K ≥ 2 and (essentially) necessary in the K = 2 candidate case. They compare the size of one candidate's valence advantage to the radius of a generalized median pivotal ball (P-ball). I flesh out the difference of this generalized median with a recent alternative which, in turn, I characterize both on the basis of a weaker median property and using pivotal hyperplanes.
建立了当投票规则为单调时,K-候选人(K≥2)有价的唐氏选举竞争纯策略均衡存在的条件,将已有结果推广到非适当规则和可能连续的选民。当K≥2时,这些条件是充分的,而在K = 2候选情况下,这些条件(基本上)是必要的。他们将一个候选人的价优势的大小与一个广义中位关键球(p球)的半径进行比较。我用最近的一种替代方法充实了这种广义中值的区别,这种替代方法反过来,我基于弱中值性质和使用枢纽超平面来表征。
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引用次数: 0
The evolution of consensus through coordinated action 通过协调行动形成共识
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221108346
Ishan Joshi
Little is known about how the scope for deliberation can be compared across different branches of government. Two things need to happen for a consensus to emerge in a particular setting. Crucially, parties must coordinate to facilitate such provisions in the first place. Second, the quality of this coordination must be able to override the other biases of the environment in the long run. A parsimonious framework presents the necessary and sufficient conditions for both of these to happen across different settings—legislatures, bureaucracies, and judiciaries. Complicating matters are intra-group factions that have heterogeneous preferences. Interestingly, even if we assume factions that do not want to compromise outnumber those that do, it is the former that take the lead in solving the coordination problem in equilibrium. A related finding suggested by these comparisons is that as institutional environments become more complex—and move away from purely representative functions—the scope for generating this consensus is enhanced.
对于如何在不同的政府部门之间比较审议范围,人们知之甚少。要在特定环境中达成共识,需要做两件事。至关重要的是,缔约方必须首先进行协调,为这些条款提供便利。其次,从长远来看,这种协调的质量必须能够克服环境的其他偏见。节俭的框架为这两种情况在不同的环境中发生提供了必要和充分的条件——立法机构、官僚机构和司法机构。更为复杂的是,集团内部派系偏好各异。有趣的是,即使我们假设不想妥协的派系数量超过了愿意妥协的派系,也正是前者在平衡中率先解决了协调问题。这些比较表明的一个相关发现是,随着制度环境变得更加复杂,并从纯粹的代表性职能转变为代表性职能,产生这种共识的范围扩大了。
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引用次数: 0
An information-based explanation for partisan media sorting 党派媒体分类的信息化解释
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-25 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221122094
Anthony Fowler, Kisoo Kim
Partisan voters tend to seek political news from media sources that match their predispositions. Scholars and pundits often attribute this partisan media sorting to psychological biases, and they typically assume that it leads voters to make worse decisions at the ballot box. To reinterpret this evidence and provide an alternative explanation, we develop two formal models of media choice—one in which voters only want to hear good news about their party and another in which voters only care about making good electoral decisions. Both models predict partisan media sorting, so sorting does not constitute evidence that voters are poorly informed or that they are driven by psychological biases. However, the models do produce competing predictions about when voters will consume more or less news and about whether signals from the news should influence vote choices. Reassessing the empirical literature, we find some support for both explanations.
党派选民倾向于从与其倾向相匹配的媒体渠道寻求政治新闻。学者和权威人士经常将这种党派媒体分类归因于心理偏见,他们通常认为这会导致选民在投票箱中做出更糟糕的决定。为了重新解释这一证据并提供另一种解释,我们开发了两种正式的媒体选择模型——一种是选民只想听到关于他们政党的好消息,另一种是他们只关心做出好的选举决定。这两个模型都预测了党派媒体的分类,因此分类并不构成选民信息不足或受心理偏见驱使的证据。然而,这些模型确实对选民何时会消费更多或更少的新闻以及新闻信号是否会影响投票选择产生了相互竞争的预测。重新评估经验文献,我们发现这两种解释都得到了一些支持。
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引用次数: 0
Models of inter-election change in partisan vote share 选举期间党派选票份额变化的模型
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-22 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221123263
Mark C. Wilson, B. Grofman
For a two-party electoral competition in a districted legislature, the change in mean vote share for party A from one election to the next is commonly referred to as swing. A key question, highly relevant to election forecasting and the measurement of partisan gerrymandering, is: “How do we expect the swing to be distributed across the districts as a function of previous vote share?”. The literature gives two main answers: uniform swing and proportional swing. Which is better has been unresolved for decades. Here we (a) provide an axiomatic foundation for desirable properties of a model of swing; (b) show axiomatically that using uniform swing or proportional swing is a bad idea, (c) provide a simple swing model that does satisfy the axioms, and (d) show how to integrate a reversion to the mean effect into models swing. We show that all the above models can be expected to work well when (a) elections are close, or (b) when we restrict to data where swing is low, or (c) when we eliminate the cases where the model is most likely to go wrong. We show on a large US Congressional dataset that in addition to its superior axiomatic properties, our new model provides an overall equal or better fit on five indicators: mistakes about directionality of change, mistakes in winner, estimates that are outside the [0..1] bounds, mean-square error, and correlation between actual and predicted values. We recommend replacing the uniform and proportional swing models with the new model.
对于分区立法机构中的两党选举竞争,a党在一次选举到下一次选举中平均得票率的变化通常被称为摇摆。一个与选举预测和党派不公正选区划分的衡量高度相关的关键问题是:“我们如何期望摇摆作为之前选票份额的函数在各个地区分布?”。文献给出了两个主要的答案:均匀摆动和比例摆动。哪个更好几十年来一直没有得到解决。在这里,我们(a)为挥杆模型的理想性质提供了公理基础;(b) 公理化地证明使用一致摆动或比例摆动是个坏主意,(c)提供一个满足公理的简单摆动模型,(d)展示如何将均值效应的回归集成到摆动模型中。我们表明,当(a)选举接近尾声时,或(b)当我们将数据限制在波动率较低的情况下,或(c)当我们消除模型最有可能出错的情况时,上述所有模型都可以很好地工作。我们在美国国会的一个大型数据集上表明,除了其优越的公理性质外,我们的新模型在五个指标上提供了总体上相同或更好的拟合:关于变化方向性的错误、赢家的错误、超出[0.1]界限的估计、均方误差以及实际值和预测值之间的相关性。我们建议用新模型替换均匀和比例摆动模型。
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引用次数: 1
Minimal voting paradoxes 最小投票悖论
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-09-21 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221122104
F. Brandt, Marie Matthäus, Christian Saile
Voting paradoxes date back to the origin of social choice theory in the 18th century, when the Chevalier de Borda pointed out that plurality—then and now the most common voting rule—may elect a candidate who loses pairwise majority comparisons against every other candidate. Since then, a large number of similar, seemingly paradoxical, phenomena have been observed in the literature. As it turns out, many paradoxes only materialize under some rather contrived circumstances and require a certain number of voters and candidates. In this paper, we leverage computational optimization techniques to identify the minimal numbers of voters and candidates that are required for the most common voting paradoxes to materialize. The resulting compilation of voting paradoxes may serve as a useful reference to social choice theorists as well as an argument for the deployment of certain rules when the numbers of voters or candidates are severely restricted.
投票悖论可以追溯到18世纪社会选择理论的起源,当时博尔达骑士指出,多数票——当时和现在最常见的投票规则——可能会选出一个在与其他候选人的配对多数比较中失败的候选人。从那时起,在文学中观察到了大量类似的、看似矛盾的现象。事实证明,许多悖论只有在一些相当人为的情况下才会出现,并且需要一定数量的选民和候选人。在本文中,我们利用计算优化技术来确定最常见的投票悖论实现所需的最小数量的选民和候选人。由此产生的投票悖论汇编可以作为社会选择理论家的有用参考,也可以作为在选民或候选人人数受到严重限制时部署某些规则的论据。
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引用次数: 4
Delegation, capture and endogenous information structures 授权、捕获和内生信息结构
IF 1 4区 社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1177/09516298221107552
Perrin Lefebvre, D. Martimort
A substantial literature has been devoted to analyzing how legislators delegate regulatory power to a more knowledgeable agency. Yet, much less attention has been paid to understand how this delegation process is shaped by the environment in which this agency operates, and more specifically by the actions of interest groups. We propose a model of regulatory capture to assess how the distribution of information across interest groups and agencies impacts optimal delegation. Whether an interest group and his agency share information or not determines the scope for capture and how much discretion should be left to this agency in response. Whether asymmetric information reduces or increases discretion depends on the biases of the group and the agency vis-à-vis Congress. Groups that are more aligned with Congress collect politically relevant information, while more extreme groups remain poorly informed. The information structure that endogenously emerges increases discretion under broad circumstances.
大量文献致力于分析立法者如何将监管权力下放给知识更丰富的机构。然而,人们很少注意了解该机构运作的环境,更具体地说,利益集团的行动是如何影响这一授权过程的。我们提出了一个监管捕获模型,以评估利益集团和机构之间的信息分配如何影响最佳授权。利益集团及其机构是否共享信息,决定了捕获的范围以及该机构应在多大程度上酌情作出回应。信息不对称是减少还是增加了自由裁量权,取决于该团体和机构对国会的偏见。与国会更为一致的团体收集政治相关信息,而更极端的团体仍然知之甚少。内生出现的信息结构在广泛的情况下增加了自由裁量权。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Theoretical Politics
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